Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Begun, How Will It Unfold?

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If you’re not familiar with the term “fourth turning”, you need to patch that educational deficiency asap.
Famed demographer Neil Howe coined the term years ago to describe the tumult & unwinding that occurs at major turning points in society when the status quo starts failing, ultimately to be replaced by a new order. Think the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War 2.
Howe has long predicted that America and the West would enter such a Fourth Turning early in the new millennium, and the upheaval of the past several years certainly appears to be lending credence to that - from the Global Financial crisis, to the supply shocks of the COVID pandemic, to the geopolitical rifts caused by the war in Ukraine.
Neil is coming out with a new book shortly building off of his earlier Fourth Turning work, and he’ll return on this channel for an interview once it’s been published.
So I’m replaying my earlier discussion with him here, to make sure we’re all up to speed when Niel Howe returns in early 2023.
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#crisis #revolution #demographics
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

[@tomd5678]

The banks should have been allowed to go bust in 2008

[@ohionaturegirl7686]

I agree. The banks should have been allowed to go bust. It would have hurt alot but for a short period of time. They would have learned a valuable lesson and would be less likely to repeat the same behavior.

[@markb8468]

@@ohionaturegirl7686 Instead, they learned they can do whatever they want. The fed will bail them out and we'll pay for their failed policies.

[@davidlaney6153]

Some for sure, they would have still had to make depositors whole...

[@shaikan0]

@@davidlaney6153 The Government should have bailed out the depositors directly and let the banks go bust. I understand this is a lot more complicated that what I'm saying but the principle stands. Don't bail out and save the architects of this mess instead of the hard working people that actually create value.

[@beachbum8215]

Yes and end the FED.

[@michellel5444]

As a millennial, I think I'd have more on common with my grandparents than I do my boomer mother. I find the restrictions that have occured extremely alarming, whereas she has this relaxed view of this central control. I'd be lying if I said it hasn't caused strife. She said something that helped me at least understand where she's coming from. She said she's seen a lot of things go sideways and they always work out. In her own lifetime I guess that is true. I don't think that is how things will go this time around. I hope I'm wrong.

[@dol3980]

MOST (50%) of the boomers in my hometead setting seem to still be wearing masks: go figure how they will contribute to ur future in any substantial ways.

[@tmow297]

Things are different now than any other generation, prophetically speaking. Technology explosion, rapid debasement of the US dollar, gender confusion rampant, the world being shut down due to COVID, many nations beating their wardrums louder and louder. Honestly, one has to put in a lot of effort to eek out some semblance of joy and sanity anymore. IMO, we are living in the very last days of Bible prophecy. No other previous generation could possibly say they have experienced the abbreviated list written above. Trusting in God and looking forward to Christ setting things right in His Kingdom

[@sarsarsvintagejewelry]

No, boomers are all about authoritarian control. Gen X, not so much. and I’ve seen just as much as boomers have.

[@sadieesther9721]

I agree - 29 year old with a 66 year old mom and 97 year old grandma

[@paulawagstaff686]

Things WILL work out. You may not be driven by materialism, you may not be driven by owning everything like a spoilt child, you may be rich in SO many ways. Contenment, freedom and peace.

[@johntheaccountant5594]

Increase in GDP has been an increase in debt. Yet economists always talk about how important GDP growth is.

[@25Soupy]

I've been around for 54 years and my whole life the world is always ending. My question is, does it matter what country you live in? Because many countries people would say they've been in winter for all four seasons.

[@thereiters07]

Generations is based on American history, so yes, it does only apply to us and not other countries.

[@michaelsorrell601]

There is much we must ignore. I,m 67 ........

[@johnphamlore8073]

It seems every 6 months the US Congress and the Presidency are blasting through a trillion-dollar plus emergency package. The entire country is now addicted to financial mainlining of fiscal stimulus. This sadly will inevitably end very badly.

[@larrygarner1413]

Correct.

[@michaelsorrell601]

correct sir

[@MonetaryRebel]

As a Millenial: We're not living with our parents because we want to or get along with them so well. We're living with them because it's the only way most can save money to have their own family one day. He's making a lot of assumptions that tick me off.

[@thereiters07]

You don't know how it feels to know that you have to leave home and can't return. Don't be ticked off. Take comfort in knowing you always have security. See it from the other side. We didn't save for a family. We made do with the nothing we had. I love that you can't understand that. I wish I had your parents.

[@MonetaryRebel]

Apologies if I sounded ungrateful. I can be quite bitter when it comes to family. I do not live with my parents. They are both dead. Many of my friends have had to move back in with their parents. Did you lose your family?

[@standinginthegap7118]

Exactly. Most mellinials I know have a lot of distain for their boomer parents. They are just stuck with them.

[@michaelsorrell9922]

MY MISSION IS/HAS BEEN TO LEAVE AS MUCH LAND/WEALTH FOR MY KIDS/GRANDS AS POSSIBLE. GOLD/SILVER, EXPANDING CATTLE FARM AND ABSOLUTELY NO DEBTS FOR ANY OF THEM. IVE DONE ALL THESE THINGS AND CAN DIE IN PEACE KNOWING IVE BUSTED MY ASS FOR CHILDREN THAT AS CHILDREN BUSTED THIERS FOR ME AND OUR FARM. IN THEM I AM WELL PLEASED.

[@AmerPridexxx]

Gen X was mostly guided/raised by the Greatest Generation. Its part of the reason Gen X values self reliance. Point being, Gen X carries the knowledge gifted by their grandparents.

[@TheMasterhomaster]

Latch-key kid.

[@nenigma1]

Gen X here. My immigrant parents, pricelessn tough as nails. I Had opportunities to travel abroad young. Always questioning American education vs European vs South American. Americans are SOFT n fluffy Erased Guidelines, Ethics etc

[@AmerPridexxx]

@@nenigma1 Absolutely. I grew up hearing about life in Chile. We spoke about POLICIES at the dinner table, and saving for "los anos de las vacas flacas" in cyclical economy

[@AmerPridexxx]

@@TheMasterhomaster whenever I needed advice about how to do something, how to fix something... Grandparents were there. They always knew how, or how to figure it out. The Silent Generation didn't lecture or spew platitudes, they handled things... And passed that attitude down to us, while the parents were off working or doing their own thing.

[@jorge1170xyz]

Yes. I think that applies to many of us.

[@LH74]

I’m a Gen X’er who seriously can’t wait for this damn 4th Turning to end. 😫

[@marilynnschroeder4436]

I’m cracking up here. This is probably the 3rd time I’m listening to this. When I get to the part where he says Bill Clinton says “The era of big government is over” I was thinking about how everything has changed.

[@dixiederivatives]

Best differences in generations story ever! My best friends dad came home from WW II. He was involved in the D-Day invasion. Party for him and his siblings that night. The next morning he awakes to his dad lifting and dropping the footboard of his bed, and saying " get up, get out and find a job, and don't come back until you find one!" Needless to say, he had a great career and raised 8 hard working responsible children!

[@mth469]

The days where one could roll up their sleeves, do manual labor and support a family on that are long gone. We are living in a different era since we went off the gold standard in 1971. All gains are stolen from workers for the benefit of bankers and those who had no part in the creation of that wealth.

[@daehr9399]

I must say that as a Millennial an often unspoken reason for why we are so close to our parents is because of their age or health. As an example, I technically live with my father although I pay all bills including property taxes. I am 29 years old. I moved in with him after I graduated from college at age 24, and lived by myself in various houses and apartments for 6 years before moving home. But I live home now with my father. This is because he is in poor health and because many Boomers do not have the money for a cushy retirement without assistance. Living with one another simply makes monetary sense. Yet oftentimes the age of this large generation is not fully investigated. Just my two cents.

[@swisschalet1658]

Absolutely correct.

[@tess7798]

Wealthion has become the highlight of my days. I’m learning so much, and am so grateful for the many interviews that are opening my mind to things I truthfully, had no idea existed. Thank you Adam! I’m a fan!

[@rejectionistmanifesto8836]

At around 41:00 minutes we see that they fail to use deep analysis and just stick to surface level discussion. They make the point how authoritarian governments were able to supposedly stop the virus, the case in point would be China. Many doctors and scientists that arent parroting the mainstream narrative warned all it would do is push the infections to a later date. Now 3 years later based on their projections millions will die in China as they had 3 years of isolation in which their immune systems have not had a chance to be exercised and their government finally realized their supposed incredible measures are no longer viable this long as Omicron is so highly infectious. The devastation to China will be multiple fold worse than America as they will have 3 years of damage in 1 year compounded with their weak immune state and one of the most transmissible variants so herd immunity will be reached finally but much more painful that if they had opened up with the rest of the World in 2020.

[@trock6921]

Checkout The Jay Martin Show as well

[@joeynigro-nilsen4740]

Because we need to sell and find another home in a safer neighborhood, I began to develop an interest in economics and finance something I have never paid much attention to. So, over the past year I’ve devoured much of what KZbin has to offer. Cross checking and looking up definitions and principles I’ve had no knowledge of. I have to say that I’ve narrowed down my choices of videos and find yours to be the most informative and, most importantly, BALANCED! I’ve always been very pragmatic but never “the sky is falling” type! Thank you for all the work you do to educate us out there! Hope the new year brings you blessings and prosperity!!!

[@juanshaftpatel7488]

just check if there are blacks.. they usually cause problems

[@rettro6578]

💯

[@davidotness6199]

"Lord of the Flies" world? Don't be counting those chickens before they hatch. There are greater disruptive forces at work than what was discussed here. We have made many enemies, a number of them quite powerful and in conjunction, much more powerful militarily than us. But their combined economic power attached to their access to critical resources make a significantly worse outcome likely than is being factored in here. It might be argued that it is an abstraction, but in reality it is outside of some folks' comfort zone in projecting the future. I think we have proven time and time again ($132 ttrillion and rising) that we prefer the fantasy as established. A reckoning is on us already, imo.

[@ARKByte]

I'm grateful that Wealthion invited guests to talk about something other than economy or finance. Cialdini was a great one to hear on this channel.

[@ariesstage2188]

Just like with other guests, request a double session then split a part 1 & 2. He was just opening up when you had to switch questions. I look forward to the follow-up in 6 months. Kudos and happy holidays to you both.

[@rp011051]

the arc of the 4th turning needs to be placed against the more aggressive foreign policy of the USA - Russia, Nato, China etc.

[@brandyleeledford4232]

I'm a Xenial. My parents are late gen boomers. They were rebels. I didn't have a home to leave by the time they were done with their 30s. I moved in with my Silent Generation grandparents at age 16 and moved into my own place after my highschool graduation. They were always rescuing me. I just can't understand living at home until your mid-20s. Hinesight, it would have been a great way to save money for a future home, to do my best in college which wasn't possible while working two jobs.

[@c.san.8751]

Don't know what to say other than you had crappy parents. I moved out at 19, worked fulltime and went to school part time for 8 years until I received my degree. They shouldn't have rescued you. They should have let you fall and figure it out on your own. No excuses! As we know, life is tough. Natural selection weeds out the weak and the stupid. Lots of those in the younger generations.

[@XOXOX4242]

@@c.san.8751 this new generation will be more into creating solutions thru cooperation instead of competition. It's the competitive model that emphasizes 'weeding out the weak and stupid' type of attitude, which isn't going to be beneficial in this new turning and awakening.

[@c.san.8751]

@@XOXOX4242 lol. This new generation can't even take care of themselves and rely on mommy and daddy. They have little to no resilience and are entitled. In the real world, it has always been and always will be about natural selection. This interview, although good, was simplistic. Neil assumes everything will repeat. He does not take into account the lack of resilience of the millennials and incompetence largely. That is one, not all, of the reasons so many retired boomers have gone back to work. Secondly, he largely discounts the adverse affects of AI and technology and how governments have and will use them against the people. And, how millennials are ok with autocracy and giving governments more control is the scariest and most worrisome comment he made. The nonsense is that people believe in utopia and the nonsense of equity and redistribution.

[@os3984]

I think you've got it wrong. Nothing's affordable anymore if you're not a high earner. Education won't land you on a livable wage. Corporations buy out their competition, so there's no real competition. I think our millenial generation is not entitled nor unresilient. We are the last generation which saw the world without everything electric. I think we are waiting for our time in politics and it might turn into some form of socialism because the current system doesn't work. I grew up during 90's recession next to Russia. We were very poor. Many enterpreneurs did suicides then. The banks were saved just like in 2008 and everyone else was thrown under a buss. Our lives have been constant crisis after crisis. If the market crashes that's it. I'm going for some form of socialism like many others because that's the moment when the tides can be turned. I don't care for the entitled generations which have been lying to us for ages about this multicrisis upon us. For the good ones yes, but for the entitled no. We are going to live poor lives as we face extinction and that's a dystopia of older generations making. The inhabitat is polluted and destroyed. Rainwater contains toxic chemicals everywhere on earth..Nothing is done because we need to think about investments and shareholders even though you can't eat or drink the god damn money. It's the river and the soil we should have saved, instead of banks and shareholders. None of my friends made/are making children because they don't believe that we'll survive or can afford them. No one in older generations listened to sciense though it's the highest form of knowledge we have avalaible. Some still resist to see it, yet it's unfolding in a few coming years. You'll propably live to see it too. The permafrost is melting and releasing methane, bugs are dying, there is no real winter anymore, crops are dying, drought and heatwaves are now yearly events, over fishing, deforestation, plastic everywhere, plastic in fetuses.. Did I forget migration crisis which will start? Oh yeah and the US wants a WW3 because of declining dollar. Because of the botnet, AI and money elites, we can't rely on our democracies nor information and that's propably the reason people are going for a strong leader which says how this is fixed. It's also worrysome I admit. Politics are a circus, so maybe just do AI that thinks in terms of best for most and best for planet. That would be more reliable. This is what some millenials think. Call it whatever you wan't but a collapse is almost certain. The earth won't carry much more people and we have already been exceeding the limits of sustainable growth for years. We will drive off the cliff at this rate and the collapse will be total if not mitigated in time. The rich are the first to be eaten and then down wards just like in Bosnia.

[@c.san.8751]

@@os3984 Another victim. Some of what you say here is true but millennials lack resiliency and severely entitled. Nothing in life is guaranteed - you have to make it happen. Corporations have always taken out their competition. There has always and will always be war. You say you grew up in the 90s recession. I lived through that - I also lived through the crash of 87, and the severe recession of 79 to 81 with soaring interest rates. I also loved through the fuel crisis of the 70s. Point - there is always hardship - always. Why people feel that life can be peaches and cream is beyond me. Millennials believe this because they had helicopter and lawnmower parents. Blame everything else except yourselves. Most of you take liberal arts and humanities in university - what a waste of time! Most of you are glued to your phones and apps and have limited interpersonal and social skills as compared to gen x and every generation before. People through out a billion or more tins of food per year. You buy into the narrative of the elites. Stop being a victim. Millennials should design their life then go and get it. I guarantee you that there will be hardship, you may lose everything and have to start over again, you will be slighted, life is not fair, but if you work hard enough you will achieve despite the doom and gloom. Stop whining.

[@ClownTrader1]

You guys get the BEST guests. No other financial channel has anything close to these type of heavy hitters.

[@c.san.8751]

You don't get out much!

[@jamiebowen7315]

I thought this was amazing first time round, but it's even better the second time around. Neil's theories feel profoundly right because everything is cyclical, and how couldn't the generational differences be too? I'm going to watch and talk about his interview with my kids. I hope it will be empowering for them. They get so much negativity from elders, but Neil is so right in pointing out that they are going to have to be the ones to bring order to the chaos, corruption and fragmentation that boomers and Gen-x have brought about. This is a call to arms! Thank you Neil for this. It feels important.

[@golddigger8759]

Call to arms.....

[@talkintennis8124]

Keep in mind.....He comes out of a Washington DC think tank funded by all the usual suspect. The future he envisions is probably in line with the establishment cronies. Just sayin.

[@shieh.4743]

He states that Gen X will lead the fight. We'll be the Get 'Er done generation. Millenials will unify. Gen Z, I missed his take on Gen Z.

[@talkintennis8124]

@@shieh.4743 You know he is a globalist right? From a DC think tank.

[@genox3636]

Boomers and Gen-xers aren't to blame.. things got rolling during the first world War. Once the banking sector took over in the early 1900s, that was a sharp turn out of everyone's favor at that point.

[@arikjohnson412]

Chris Martinson had a livestream the other day where he showed a meme that, Grandma survived the Great Depression because her supply chain was decentralized and she knew how to do valuable things… as an Xer I’ve come to appreciate those benefits and have been decentralizing my economic assets and activities right out of sight.

[@jonathanrutherford165]

So from 1980-present we experienced a period of less government control? Did I hear that right?

[@russelllyon4045]

Agreed I think his perception of certain things aren't accurate.

[@ADKfreeman]

That's what happens when a biased author selling books tries to fit reality within a rigid concept.

[@thereiters07]

I think he means from a capitalist perspective. De-regulation.

[@dylancatlett6580]

@@thereiters07 The economy has become more centrally planned and regulations abound. This isn't capitalism.... it's socialism lite.

[@RayBecker]

Probably one of the best Books I've read; The Fourth Turning. Nature, such that it is, runs in cycles. I'm learning that if I can identify the cycles, I can better prepare for what is coming. Nobody can predict what's going to happen tomorrow, next week, next year or the next decade but Cycles can provide some signposts. Human behavior is so predictable that it is almost like shooting fish in a barrel for these Authors. There are other sources out there that work hand in hand with The Fourth Turning and as you come across these, you gain a new perspective on the future. It's not Doom and Gloom either. We have a basic requirement if we're here watching Adam and his guests and that is, we must prepare. We must accept what is going on around us and adopt a new Mantra of "Hope for the Best, but Prepare for the Worst". There are some people who will reverse that but essentially, this is what can help you and your loved ones. If we are ignorant or in denial, we stand to get slaughtered like sheep. I don't want that to happen to anybody; not my worst enemy, but it will happen.

[@waynewilcox4776]

Are you familiar with Sarkar's Law of Cycles? Look up The Great Depression of 1990 by Ravi Batra. He includes what are basically Clif's Notes to Sarkar in his book. I'd read his sections on Sarkar and compare to the Fourth Turning. I think you'll come to the conclusion that there is little separation between Sarkar and the Fourth Turning. The only noticeable difference is that Sarkar used 30 years as a benchmark for how long a generation remains dominant while the Fourth Turning appears to use 40 years as a benchmark. Both works say the same thing: grandchildren follow in the footsteps of their grandparents, creating the two-generation cycle called a turning.

[@joshuajames2425]

Neil is a statist dude Also woke as shit

[@RayBecker]

@@joshuajames2425 Truth be told; I don't really care about an Author's political bent. I'm constantly seeking knowledge and as the great Pastor Charles Lawson says: If you don't use another man's brain then it might indicate that you have no brain. Is their a ton of propaganda? Most definitely. From both political sides? Bigtime. I believe it is our responsibility to look at all viewpoints, gather up as much knowledge as possible and look for the Truth somewhere in between the extremes. We should never block out any viewpoint because it does not square up with our own beliefs. Look man, politicians are bought and paid for. I am Apolitical. There are just a few like Tom Massie and Rand Paul that I place any cred into. Hell, I've even learned from Noam Chomsky. I would think it's very foolish to dismiss someone based solely on their political leanings.

[@Kristofur77]

@@RayBecker you should read Nietzsche, the man had a ton to say and it's impossible to agree or disagree with all of it.

[@NashVil]

@@joshuajames2425 true, in denial of the horrific street thefts, and tent cities … the start of layoffs… overinflated housing prices… not in touch with the mass population indeed!

[@colinmorrison7203]

Wow! What an incredible talk/lecture/lesson. Too much to take in with one viewing. Great perspective on what is going on today in several realms. Just incredible information.

[@CC88811]

Just finished reading his book “The Fourth Turning”. Absolutely astounding in its accuracy. Every school should feature this important work

[@talkintennis8124]

So we know exactly what the billionaire class want for us peasants? No thanks. Your hero is member of a Billionaire DC think tank. These people are not looking out for you.

[@CC88811]

@@talkintennis8124 “YoUr HeROooo”😆 Did you read the book, stunod? This work is based on observing this cycle repeating over hundreds of years. It’s interesting because it’s a deep look into human psychology, not some secret manual designed by billionaires to lead us astray. But if that’s what you want to believe, so be it😂

[@talkintennis8124]

@@CC88811 enjoy the incoming surveillance state. They want many drones just like you.

[@CC88811]

@@talkintennis8124 You don’t know anything about me. You’ve bought the fear porn like everyone else. There’s nightmares on sale for every mindset, yours included. You’re not unique. This is little more than a money game. I’m investing in the solutions. Wars are not won by pessimists or pussies. Best to be a pragmatist. Cheers

[@George-jm4rn]

If you haven't read The Fourth Turning or heard Mr. Howe speak on the subject, then by all means watch this interview. If you have read or heard this before, there's nothing new here.

[@kingjehukhan8541]

Fourth Turning, Kondritev Waves, Apocalypse, Age of Aquarius, all seasons have beginnings and endings. Whether this cycle is for the good or for the bad all depends on how everything is manipulated and if people stand up for themselves.

[@martymajix91]

Financial Social Engineers structure these cycles to keep their financial engine running. They do not reflect social interest.

[@boondoggle4820]

That is so true. I’ve noticed millennials lack of defiance and rebelliousness and commented on their sense of conformity. I noticed the huge shift between Gen X and the millennials as I was close to both as a Gen Xer born in the late 70s. Gen X was sometimes admittedly rightfully called cynical, but we believed in freedom much more than safety, whereas millennials seem to believe in safety more than freedom. It was just expected that we would be self-reliant as we spent a lot of time without adult supervision and had to learn to fend for ourselves, resolve conflicts ourselves, etc.

[@dol3980]

There are a host of other parameters that created the boomer/millenials/genXers divide all to their detriment and Neil never even touched on them. Too bad!!

[@yagottabkiddin]

Human behavior is more a result of individual experiences than when one was born. The list of Boomer "characteristics" generally doesn't fit me ormy spouse, the list of Millennial "characteristics" doesn't accurately describe our kids.

[@MrMcguire89]

@@yagottabkiddin I agree. Pigeon holing people into groups based on when they were born is really a bad precident. I'm a millenial and would say my parents appeal to authority and dependence on "expert" opinion makes them extremely vulnerable. If anything their age is a reflection of the old addage, You can't teach an old dog new tricks." Hence why so many their age got the jab.

[@Snappypantsdance]

@@MrMcguire89 I couldnt agree with you more!

[@JesusChrist2000BC]

Millennial here you are completely off base. It's the over 40 safe in their jobs crowd who lack defiance. Blame yourself on the state of everything.

[@colewhitfield9313]

I’m so excited for his new book! I have read The Fourth Turning several times now and I’ve been ruminating on its concepts for a couple of years now. I can’t wait to see what insights he’ll add with this update.

[@4000angels]

I love this Welthion channel, but unfortunately, I thought that this particular interview was a total waste of my time. But I still love the content of this channel.

[@jamesalec1321]

Thanks Adam. It's always good to see Neil Howe on your show.👍

[@Sonmi-451]

An amazing guest and an interview worth sharing. 👍🏻

[@ChrisHodges87]

Adam, you are doing great getting wonderful guests and then helping them share ideas. I’ll even watch this again. :)

[@walterblake1]

Adam's face at 36:20 when Neil say's " total war"

[@sierramountain5700]

Very informative and great perspective on a broader sense. TY for having him as a guest.

[@audiophileman7047]

This was a very fascinating interview. Thank you, Adam! 👍👍👍

[@iamjleeds2]

Did you gloss over the point made about “total war” being a reliable feature of the turning. Did you stop to consider what total war looks like in this nuclear age?

[@unicornfartingglitteringra1159]

Boomers don't because they are fucking clueless jokes.

[@iamjleeds2]

Agree - but apples don't fall far from the three. The Boomers were soft/weak and they produced a generation that was even softer/weaker who now stand poised to or are now leading. Hard times produce strong people, strong people produce good times, good times produce weak people, weak people produce hard times. We are now run by weak/woke people and hard times are coming (here now).....

[@mikeinportland30]

Thanks Adam for rerunning this video. It was great the first time, but via unfolding events plus the natural aid of any repeated action, it is even better the second time. Important stuff!

[@carolwmastermind]

I thought it was a replay!! Thanks for confirming that.

[@p51mustang24]

Neil says inflation is a solution and points to the 40's, but this misses some details. For example, housing was at historically normal prices in the 40's, and 30 year mortgages DIDNT EXIST until the 50's. Housing was closer to 2x income, versus 5x-15x today!!! So we need to see an absolute collapse in real estate, probably combined with a major debt restructuring / forgiveness, and a necessary return to building lower square footage single family, which began to disappear after 1980. Like the Victorian era housing collapse, I imagine this will mean many mansions of the exorbitantly wealthy prior era will fall into ruin, as no one will be able to maintain all of them. We may even need to eliminate the big commercial banks and the Fed, and have state directed credit via local bank intermediaries. Or perhaps a bitcoin standard. But a fundamental restructuring of the financial system is needed, not reform.

[@unicornfartingglitteringra1159]

It's going to take generations to tear down the corrupt institutions and systems that boomers and old gen-xers set up. If anyone survives "the next plandemic" or war.

[@mth469]

People who saved in fiat money will get screwed in any "debt forgiveness". It essentially passing on the loss to them.

[@ecbray7734]

I could find nothing useful in this Wealthion segment. The 4th Turning was never clearly defined, its significance is unclear and there was no logical way to leverage this information to increase my wealth. It sounded like he was pumping an old book he wrote.

[@Persev444]

36:18 period of crisis and total war. He mentions that the current cycle of people that will have to face and solve / or fail to solve this crisis (s) are totally "uncompetitive and uninventive". For all his archetypes and cyclical talk I could not glean ( watched twice) what would happen if the crisis are so large and systemwide ( 5+ major crisis) that the entire model breaks down and the drifters ( millenials) face loss of civilization.

[@RobertThomas-bl7bt]

WOW Another incredible big thinker outside the typical financial genre. You Rock Bro...got the last guest's book inbound

[@skaravolos]

Very well said. Great interview. Thanks Neil and Adam

[@charlescasaburi5333]

When you live in a third world hellhole which America is increasingly becoming you just struggle to get by day to day. Nobody in Brazil is thinking about sending a Brazilian to mars.

[@REASONFORTRUTH]

This is an exceptional channel. Excellent!

[@catfoodgeneration]

Ronald Reagan called out as president at the beginning of "the Unravelling." Yup!

[@vvvvxxxx9999]

Thank you for your consideration of our youth.

[@Robin35758]

I wish that some people would stop confusing democracy with a republican form of government.

[@caroledoerr6872]

If the future is going to be like the 1950's, then manufacturing will have to return.

[@marsmotion]

@@gyratedotorg but its going to be highly automated. and tech jobs are only 3% of the work force...dont bet on it.

[@intradibles]

We've been in a Fourth Turning since '08, Wealthion.

[@jeffchapman8992]

Interesting but I would have loved to hear Neil's thoughts on The Great Reset and the WEF's desire to have everyone attached to a digital ID and be forced to rely on (submit to) a CBDC that removes private money.

[@marsmotion]

me too

[@allenahil]

He will not tell us that.

[@ld4122]

@@allenahil true, you heard him, he’s a D.C. guy.

[@joshfgfg]

Yes there is not enough talk on cbdc on any channel at the moment. It feels like the next 9/11 or 2008 or lockdown shift.

[@jesshansen3690]

there are plenty of other channels that cater to right wing conspiracies on KZbin

[@user-fz2zj4hr8u]

Strauss and Howes work has taken me a while to digest because its intense and deep. I want to hear more about the idea of turnings being hijacked by the PTB. Govt trying to control when, where, and how the turning happens. Can it be delayed? Forced? Also, has there been any work on tsking the Generational Theory of History and seeing if it applies to other cultures? Both current and past? What about globally?

[@cheeseman417]

Neil Howe is the best! it's been a long time. Have a happy and healthy new year! Neil is a hero to us genx'ers, main stream never even mentions us anymore!

[@bumandy]

great interview. date stamp would be very helpful because it's a replay n this is a time-sensitive market channel

[@davidwork1539]

Sound good, just started listening, but wanted to mention that I'm about half way through Ray Dalio's "Principles of dealing with the changing world order" along the same thought process of cycles

[@williamhoffer9277]

The topics discussed in this video show why it is so important that the judicial system is preserved and adhered to!

[@AlexHop1]

Really interesting interview! I look forward to reading the new book.

[@zenden6564]

Overall Adam manages to take a positive long view message from the conversation. ✅ But Neil asserts two things: 1. we've entered into the 4th turning phase now and that every 4th turning has a total war (yikes); 2. The future ~40year cycle will favour debtors over creditors, so does that mean leveraging is still king? If Adam can get Neil back on, it would be fantastic to hear how the subsidence of the US led global Liberal Hegemony transitions into the new multipolar geo-political alignment and how he sees that interacting with so-called Great Reset-WEF thang. Neil's (sly) allusion to Argentina, being where the US is heading was a very casual (throw away?) aside, but also worth a closer look.

[@cambriawellness3102]

Yikes is right. There may be two major economies, as we don't play well with others. We are being avoided by big players who have the courage and interdependence to counter our lone wolf style of governing. Didn't this happen to Germany when they did the same thing in WWII?

[@applepie2775]

Adam, I love your show; it's 'top shelf.' Generally, I learn from it and I appreciate your typical objectivity and levelheadedness. But you give Neil Howe too much credit and you're a bit too deferential to his opinions, which I've seen you do with him in prior interviews. Pick a side! Howe makes what's happening sound like 'oh gosh, everyone's doing the best they can but they're just not making the best choices.' Sadly, what's going on is much darker than that. We're not witnessing bad choices; we're watching a very deliberate strategy unfolding with horrific consequences. There are agenda-driven persons in positions of power who are hard at work here to destroy the national economy in favor of something else. I know you try to stay clear of politics and just present facts and analysis, but finance/economics and politics are inseparable.

[@k.dermer2168]

My thoughts exactly.

[@dylancatlett6580]

One cannot just present facts and analysis while staying clear of politics. The truth is controversial. Ignore it and you do so in favor of the opposing political side. Not happy with Wealthion.

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this informative content a very provoking discussion many thanks ADAM cheers Frank

[@k.s.obrien9459]

This was great and encouraging, thank you!

[@sl312]

This is encouraging?

[@GoodmanMIke59]

47 minutes in and I can't really ascertain when this interview was held. You said it was re-airing. You should have opened up with the date of the original interview. Please don't tell me I need to help you do your job.

[@Useless_Knowledge07]

This was encouraging. Gen X probably wouldn't want to retire fully? Many of us are semi retired now.

[@ianpatton632]

Great conversation, his new books out July 18th

[@celiaallman3549]

Loved the discussion. Hopeful.

[@markb8468]

Very interesting stuff. I do think we are in unprecedented times as a result of the pace of technological advancement. I wonder what the impact of tech will be to his thesis.

[@joergmueller4439]

Thanks for the update and optimistic message. It's going to be great!

[@michaelducksworth5826]

Really liked this book!

[@tcboes]

Listening to this a second time... halfway into part 1, you asked Neil if it is possible the next 'turning' gets short circuited. He seemed to rely on historical precedence and say, it won't happen because it hasn't happened. But, consider episodes in history where an event radically rearranged the patterns and cycles, often catastrophically depending on your perspective. Introduce toxins to a Lake, it becomes deadly and sterile. Just as an extreme example, Bees have never died off. But if they do, the Biosphere dies or transforms unpredictable. Similarly, human sexuality and identity has never been challenged as aggressively as now. That effect alone could transform patterns unpredictably. And that's just one of the ways the 'Community Organizer' has been preparing his kingdom. So, I'm not so sure any previous pattern that involves human behavior remains valid.

[@johndamascus6039]

Generational Dynamics has a better theory, but has blindspots too. Not many people know it, but JX over there had all of this sorted out, and more meticulously, than Howe-Strauss, who never really say anything except cycles happen. Duh.

[@Anne-LiseH]

If you switch sexes you are sterile which only lasts one generation. The long term outcome will depend on the financial model chosen and whether people reclaim their food and work independence.

[@katiawhitestar2857]

That’s how I see it too.

[@michaelsorrell601]

your right sir!

[@Snappypantsdance]

@@johndamascus6039 is that a KZbin channel? I mean I know it’s an Aerospace company, but I’m thinking that that’s not what you’re referring to?

[@allenahil]

What is he talking about? lack of regulation? Are you kidding me!!!

[@NikGoretoy]

Adam surprises us with incredible guests all the time!

[@johndamascus6039]

I've seen too many interviews of this guy where he doesn't actually say anything. Is this another example? Thanks for saving me time. All the best in 2023, which will see big market quakes, among other things!

[@7MEGAPIXEL]

What is important as we move through these societal changes is whether or not we have some consensus on our history. What you perceive as truth about your past directs your efforts about where you think we should go. Any thoughts?

[@YasinNabi]

The easiest way to succeed in any field is to work on it consistantly, and consistancy is the key to success. I experienced my self. By the way, thanks for the uploads , a fellow creator.====

[@themeatjesus]

It's always funny how everyone dances around it but no one ever calls out the smallest wealth gap in our history was peak unionization in the 50s-70s and now it's almost the lowest participation. Not sure if that is intentional or actually a blind spot for a lot of economists.

[@Wendathena]

Also had very high tax rates for wealthy individuals during that period of history.

[@jorge1170xyz]

But that was mostly due to steadily INCREASING interest rates that didn't allow assets to appreciate absurdly nor wall street to ignite massive self-feeding bubbles.

[@thereiters07]

That was post WWII AND when we still had a gold-backed dollar.

[@thereiters07]

Unions are no longer unifying. They are divisive.

[@themeatjesus]

@@thereiters07 unions are workers coming together.. are you referring to union corporations?

[@Talex3003]

Super interesting. Thank you both 🤝🤝

[@richardpeterson6911]

Adam, thank you for hosting such great guests. To me, Neil Howe is one of the most knowledgeable, insightful and brilliant interviewees ever. I always learn a wealth of information listening to him

[@HawkinDove]

One thing blew my mind is when he said "inflation solves inequality - it takes away creditors, and gives the debtors". When he said it that way, that make some sense. No wonder the debt cycle continues

[@seeyouinhell4evr]

Governments borrow money from their constituents. Inflationary money does not "solve inequality", it only hurts ordinary people to benefit indebted governments and tax-dodging aristocrats.

[@theeverfartingelephant8189]

Most laughable comment I'll see in 2023. Disgraceful.

[@mth469]

He assumes the creditors did not work hard for their money, sacrifice and save...while debtors did not piss they money away and enjoy life.

[@arronhopsburg8532]

The future is bright because truth, justice and freedom will prevail. The is a darkness coming in the short term that humanity must navigate. Just remember the saying about hard times making hard men.

[@fjb7380]

We’re a constitutional republic not a democracy. The word democracy is not uttered once in our founding documents.

[@charlesbrown9213]

We are a constitutional republic in form only. The reality of it is we have morphed into something more akin to mobocracy.

[@rickhuxtable6272]

It would helpful if all videos show the date of interviews etc continuously on the screen - Date stamped.

[@makkusuXmax]

Early 30s full time work can't afford home or family. Why bother putting into a system that doesn't benefit me.

[@theclosingteamgalveston]

Very accurate. Great to rewatch

[@mr.wonder8168]

Thanks for the interview. I do request the next time Neil is interviewed we skip the introduction. Every interview with Neil wastes the first 15 to 20 minutes of the hour. It only gets new and interesting with less than 10 minutes left. The optimism at the end is highly appreciated. People need optimism to allow their imaginations to conceive of the world we can achieve in the the opening of the 1st turning. God Bless☮️

[@james3876]

I've just gotten into the habit of fast-forwarding personally, most channels waste the first few minutes.

[@stargazer5073]

Free education, everyone should watch your channel

[@jacobrjager]

Should make a playlist for all these fourth turning interviews....so difficult to be sure I'm seeing all these 🙁

[@user-gl9iz1bp1r]

Quick summary - "Any one with insight and understanding - is now too old to have an impact."

[@marshafisher71]

This was an AMAZING video. Fantastic work🎊🎊🎊

[@cris471]

Learning a lot, really appreciate it !

[@jamesstrawn6087]

One problem with the "turnings" theory is the subjectivity of the definition of a generation. A second is the likelihood of making known events and outcomes fit the theory, events being a seemingly infinite pool. A third is that outcomes as a measure of success are also an interpretive rubric. (e.g. Did Lincoln's perseverence win the Civil War or was it his lack of leadership that brought it on or extended it?)

[@truthseeker5890]

This was a good one. Thank you, Adam.

[@ciarancoyne9104]

Thanks a mill boys 🙏🏻

[@cavscout888]

A broader view than he offers... what they did in the 1950's and before and after, running us down until now, was consume energy. Oil, coal, nuclear, nat gas, etc. We are getting shorter on energy to consume. We may not be able to afford it this time around. And we can't without consuming energy somewhere.

[@philosophyze]

Adam's illustration of "totalitarian govts that took measures to clamp down to stop the virus in its tracks"... except their death rates were HIGHER than in places that didn't. In places that had smarter politicians that allowed alternatives turned out with better results. Plus the different approaches of govts allow us to compare the results and authoritarian govts look really bad. It turns out that political "messiness" is a feature, not a bug.

[@oferzeira8125]

Great conversation. Thanks

[@sheevamatimbas4300]

Bloody excellent podcast

[@scooterrockets7815]

Anyone that postulates these cycles as "organic" has barely scraped the surface OR is intentionally framing the cycles in a manner as to shield the social engineers from scrutiny.

[@BatmanBoss]

Wealthion! Very excited for Neil’s new book! Thanks guys

[@michigandersea3485]

Howe is actually totally wrong when he says the 50s was not a period of cultural creativity. No historian of the American humanities would agree with him. It was an era of gigantic creativity when the groundwork was laid for the rapid changes of the 60s-90s, both culturally and also technologically. It took until the 60s-70s for the cultural innovations of the 50s to really make it big, though.

[@trogglepope9792]

Howe's idea about generational attitudes toward order and chaos is interesting and potentially useful, and he's clearly very knowledgeable, but he seems to stumble in a few key areas: First, Howe is wrong about inflation reducing inequality. Printing money always increases prices faster than wages, and it erodes the value of cash savings faster than securities, which go into a bubble. Who puts their savings primarily in cash? Poor and middle class people trying to save up a buffer for an emergency or a down payment on their first house. Who puts their savings primarily in securities? Those with more to spare, and the Plunge Protection Team. Individual debtors who pay back loans may technically be paying them back in "cheaper dollars," because their wages do eventually increase, but the cost of living increases more than cancel out that benefit, unless the underlying purchase appreciates enough to grow their net worth (due to a bubble, which can burst at inconvenient times). Meanwhile, individual banks may seem like they're getting shafted by interest rates below inflation, except they're lending out borrowed money too (from depositers, other banks, or the Federal Reserve, the infinite money backstop) at higher velocities, so they still win. The inflationary system over-financializes the whole economy, artificially elevating the importance of lending, so they're effectively making smaller profits per loan off a much larger number of loans, for an overall increase in short-term profitability and systemic risk. That risk will eventually bite some but not all banks, but not to the benefit of the poor. The Federal Reserve is the nexus of this, and I'd much rather be the one making that 6% member dividend than the one thinking he's getting a good deal "paying back his home in cheaper dollars" after he went from being a sole breadwinner to one of two who still can't make ends meet. It is true that holders of US Treasuries may indeed get the short end of the deal, and many are international, but it's naive to think that will come without hostile consequences from countries with stronger manufacturing bases (also a direct consequence of inflating the world's reserve currency), or without uncontrollable cascading effects when they're dumped even without strategic hostility. Far from a solution, inflation is the single biggest driver of wealth inequality and economic instability, and this has massive generational geopolitical ramifications as well. Second, Howe is mischaracterizing our age as one without centralized governmental power, when what has really happened is the outsourcing and camouflaging of government power through corporate power, i.e. stealth fascism (see the Twitter Files, etc.). In reality, the size and scope of the federal government and its power have steadily grown almost monotonically for a century, even during times when it *selectively* decided to back off in one area or another and/or launder its actions through other entities, at the behest of special interests. In other words, the shortage of social cohesion does not imply a shortage of centralized power in our case. In our case, centralized power systematically enforces order and chaos in all the wrong places: Anarcho-tyranny lets the unaccountable political class get away with anything and unleash an unaccountable criminal underclass on the hapless poor and middle class, while the machine tightly polices middle class behavior/words with social compliance mechanisms and selectively destroys anyone who threatens a racket that has been coordinated at the international level (hardly decentralized). In response, the kind of order the populist right demands is not necessarily quantitatively greater, just qualitatively different. Third, Howe is inferring too much of Millennial attitudes toward their parents from their financial dependence: Living with their parents arises primarily from financial need and/or lack of direction. If it says anything about relational closeness, it says more about the parents' priorities than the children's. Just because the parents are generous or understanding or weak enough to allow it, does not imply anything about the attitudes with which the Millennials receive this aid, except that they are not too proud of their self-reliance to accept it. On a more fundamental level, Howe seems to overfit his central thesis to the small data set of American history, instead of drawing upon thousands of years of history and the cycle that every empire goes through, as John Glubb did. He briefly mentioned that it's possible for a Fourth Turning to be good or bad (a nightmare case), but his attempt to be politically neutral in this interview made him too morally neutral to identify what makes an outcome good vs. bad, let alone to hypothesize about the causal factors behind why one might turn out badly while another turned out well. If society's primary cyclical pattern occurs on the time scale that Howe argues, I think we would be able to expect a more predictable outcome. Instead, the qualitative differences in Fourth Turning outcomes hint at this cycle being more of a noteworthy interference pattern within a larger and more important cycle than the primary driver, even if it was not overfitted.

[@jesshansen3690]

Lovely interview, Adam and Neil. Neil, you have an appealing take on the history of inflation and how it benefited workers and labor unions. Those days are returning, I hope. It feels like it and I'll rejoice if it happens.

[@swisschalet1658]

Labor unions no longer benefit workers. At one time maybe they did, but now they hinder them.