He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion

[@UnicowBoySlots]

I’m going to say it first: This didn’t age well

[@braaap2943]

it was to be expected, just look at his face

[@PolBearr12]

Don't forget CNN and MSNBC propaganda

[@EchoVibe-n6t]

hey! i was first!

[@nazomius7033]

Yeah, it didn’t, and here’s what’s interesting 5 keys were false and only one key away from a dem defeat, looks like this shows that history is a good indicator but not always 🧐

[@6z0]

Hahahahahahahahaha

[@u3mo_th388]

I’m guessing New York Times won’t be making a video with this dude next election 😂

[@u3mo_th388]

Update: fox just called Trumps victory. This video really didn’t age well 😂😂😂

[@eliasziad7864]

@@u3mo_th388 Update: trump wins popular vote. Now this toupee clown has no excuse like he had from 2000.

[@yaniii_0730]

i think they still will, he is controversial.

[@littledudefromacrossthestr5755]

Ikr 😂 😂

[@fernandopinto1312]

BRUH

[@EchoVibe-n6t]

this aged horribly.

[@ZUPYNinGAME]

aged lovely for me hahaha

[@oliveraoliveraaa2113]

It’s the red wave thingy or whatever

[@oliveraoliveraaa2113]

Red mirage 🤰🏻

[@raf5710]

​@@oliveraoliveraaa2113 Congratulations! Assuming you're pregnant cause of the emoji. Stay blessed.

[@matthewjordan9882]

​@@raf5710🤱

[@Exl6243]

Dear Allan Lichtman, Before you dismiss your keys entirely, here's the case as to why your keys are correct, but in reality would have predicted Trump's victory. 1. Short Term Economy. The economy HAS been in recession. It's been in recession for years. If you look at raw GDP numbers, sure it looks good, but the fact is that, like inflation, it's exaggerated numbers. The normal indicators for recession are not viable in a time where the Biden administration NEVER reached normal inflation rates of 2%. The prices have been baked in, and most people can't afford basic goods and services. 2. Major Scandal: This is a key that also works but has been misapplied. The Biden administration has been hit with scandal. The fact that he had to DROP OUT of the race but is somehow still president because of his debate performance is a scandal in itself. Biden could not handle a debate. He mismanaged the withdrawal of Afghanistan. He was checking his watch while at a funeral. His mental capacity has been diminished, and everyone in the White House and the media covered it up. If Biden could not handle a debate or a campaign against Trump, how is he expected to handle the PRESIDENCY? 3. Challenger Charisma: This key works, and WOULD have been true until a key moment: Trump was shot at. The fact that Trump raised his fist with a bleeding ear surrounded by Secret Service in that photo showed that the talk about how he was just "bluster" was false. Instead of cowering behind Secret Service, he was defiant. This INSTANTLY drew in many people. 4. Foreign policy blunder: The Withdrawal of Afghanistan. 13 service members dead, and Biden was checking his watch at the funeral. Enough said. With these keys along with the other false keys you mentioned, Trump HANDILY won the election AND won the popular vote.

[@dhartifact6294]

Wow! Thanks a lot

[@Exl6243]

I will add to this comment one more thing. Policy Change: This key is ABSOLUTELY false. Kamala Harris literally said, when asked what she would do differently from Joe Biden: "Not a thing comes to mind." Kamala Harris was NOT a change candidate. Heck, she was the VICE PRESIDENT, and could have gone to Biden for changes within the executive branch, but she didn't. She has stated that she was the last person in the room during the withdrawal of Afghanistan, and she did not regret that withdrawal. Every policy that Joe Biden did, Kamala endorsed it as the tiebreaker in the Senate.

[@jsc0625]

This was well-explained, thank you!

[@mgm57901]

Interesting... I did my own breakdown and found 3 wrong answers: 1- Foreign policy blunder I agreed with. I also said false for Social unrest and Long Term economy as the short term economy is actually doing better but the long term economy is not and only meets his criteria because of how it is written (Basically GDP goes up or something like that which is obvious with inflation.) He did give a False for the foreign policy failure but only because of Gaza. I actually would switch that to true IF it wasn't for the Afghan withdraw as you correctly mentioned. I don't know that I would personally apply the scandal key or the Charisma key but I think you make really good points there. Good food for thought!

[@thesenate1844]

He already counts Gaza as a foreign policy failure, so Afghanistan doesmt really change much. He considers Ukraine as a major success, while this may have been true in 2022, by now it has turned into an excruciating stalemate with no end in sight, Ukraine has no realistic chance of regaining what it has lost, at best it can be viewed as a neutral key.

[@holitinne]

“Kamala Harris will win the 2024 elections.” Yeah, about that…

[@universalrandomizer405]

"The race was long, and the keys were wrong" - Dr. Allan Lichtman

[@JanustheXanus]

​@@universalrandomizer405It's not that there's something wrong with the keys system. It's that Lichtman didn't properly apply the keys this time

[@louie45]

@@JanustheXanusexactly how could trump not be a once in a generational candidate ?, He’s literally the 2nd president to win non-consecutively, and the first time that happened was in the 1800s, but he hated Trump so much he couldn’t admit that, he also couldn’t admit that the Democrats did a coup against Biden, and no primary contest doesn’t mean you literally do no primary without any votes, he said the Biden administration says there’s no recession so it doesn’t matter that the voters are suffering financially they will vote based on what the government tells them what their own pockets say, at one point he said no one will hold Afghanistan against them because it’s not fresh people won’t remember it, also people literally flooded his comments, telling him they find great comfort in him and he didn’t correct them, he literally says Trump supporters see him as a God in this video, but when this guy supporters say things like finding comfort in him, he doesn’t correct them That’s acting like a God, every single one of these Democrats are 100% hypocritical everything that comes out of their mouth against the GOP is exactly what they do, I’m so glad they are reaping what they sow.

[@alekseynevsky1096]

Alan I did my Job and even explored sources comparing Donald Trump to JFK or Obama in terms of charisma, Trump has a strong and loyal following and is seen as charismatic by many of his supporters. However, whether he reaches the same level of widespread charisma as JFK or Obama is subjective and depends on individual perspectives. Here's the tally for the 2024 election prediction based on Lichtman's keys: Party Mandate: Republicans gained control of the House in 2022. This key is false. Midterm Election Results No Primary Contest: Kamala Harris faces little to no serious opposition as the Democratic nominee. This key is true. Primary Election Overview Incumbent Seeking Re-Election: Joe Biden is not running for re-election. This key is false. Biden’s Decision Not to Run No Third Party: No significant third-party candidates are polling well. This key is true. 2024 Election Third Party Candidates Strong Short-Term Economy: The economy is perceived as strong with a 3.0% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2024. This key is true. Economic Outlook Report Strong Long-Term Economy: Real GDP growth has been positive. This key is true. Economic Growth Analysis Major Policy Change: Significant policy changes, including strengthening NATO and Indo-Pacific strategies. This key is true. Policy Changes Overview No Social Unrest: Since the violence hasn't occurred, this key remains true. Current Social Climate No Scandal: Political scandals have involved both parties, but none directly involving the president. This key is true. Scandals and Politics No Foreign or Military Failure: Given the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, this key is false. Conflicts in Ukraine and Israel Major Foreign or Military Success: No major, sustained military success. This key is false. Foreign Policy Achievements Charismatic Incumbent: Kamala Harris does not reach the level of charisma comparable to Obama or Reagan. This key is false. Kamala Harris's Charisma Uncharismatic Challenger: Donald Trump is charismatic. This key is false. Donald Trump’s Charisma Here's the tally: True: 7 False: 6 According to Lichtman's system, if six or more keys are false, it predicts a change in administration. With six keys being false, this would suggest that Donald Trump is predicted to win the 2024 presidential election.

[@fastestdino2]

@@JanustheXanus He applied them in the most tone deaf way one could possibly imagine. Was likely intentional.

[@Sana_a04]

Can't even pull the "I predicted the popular vote" nonsense this time!

[@vbrotherita]

This.

[@thegamer7537]

seriously

[@marksteele45]

Amen!

[@familyforonehumanity5630]

Lmao only some people vote for Trump. Meanwhile Trump got all the votes

[@alter112]

bro is no longer him

[@MooseOsauras]

Bro got the 13 keys to retirement 💀💀💀

[@spacegod2233]

I watched this video when it came out and it was the only reason i thought Trump might lose, no lie😅. I'm glad common sense prevailed

[@genxploits]

@@spacegod2233same dude I was so worried since lichtman predicted trump would lose

[@IVEREIStan]

@@spacegod2233 same, she had all the endorsements, campaign funds, media support and she still couldn’t win 😹

[@Alpffine]

He gave the foreign success key to Democrats because Ukraine made an insignificant incursion into Kursk, it’s hilarious.

[@littledudefromacrossthestr5755]

😭 😭 😭 😭

[@1-1-864]

He went from 90% to 81% accurate. 😂

[@Mizzen3]

No he also coulsnt predict the popular vote for 2016 election

[@Mizzen3]

72% accurate 😂😂😂

[@davidpar2]

He went from 90% accurate to 100% unhinged 😆

[@wes7195]

@@Mizzen3 You factor in the elections from the 21st century and you are spot on. He is a professor so would that be a C- average? LOL

[@gameralexgeometrydash2654]

Trump cheated

[@holitinne]

“The keys will absolutely work!” Not for the wrong car.

[@vbrotherita]

Ouch 😅

[@larrylorenzo442]

Exactly. According to his keys you can basically put in the worst candidate ever and still win. Wrong

[@holitinne]

@@larrylorenzo442 he was just biased. That’s also another problem of his keys. The answers are very relative.

[@PotatoToon]

He had 13 keys, none of them opened the car door.

[@PapaFujiwara]

Must be one of those tesla cards 😂😂

[@pennsylvania19]

Let’s be honest: We all know why we’re here

[@JNT-s2x]

HAHAHA

[@fewkeyfewkey5414]

lets be honest. this wasn't in our recommendation. we all looked it up 😂

[@johnedwards785]

To laugh at this total buffoon? LOL!

[@wes7195]

HAHAHA You know it!

[@TSEliot1978]

This guy's hatred for Trump totally overshadowed his otherwise workable theory.

[@hellosupnamesdannydandanie2703]

True! All the keys were CORRECT! He just let his TDS get in the way.

[@zenokada2278]

He predicted trump in 2016

[@senister14]

​@@hellosupnamesdannydandanie2703agreed.

[@BobChippewa]

@@zenokada2278 he was wrong in 2024.

[@autastic1]

Actually, he's talked about how his keys can only predict the popular vote. He's maintained this. So, his keys failed at predicting Hillary would win the popular vote. In reality, the keys were wrong in 2016.

[@DivineComedyandStuff]

Lichtman: "I predict Kamala Harris will win the White House in 2024!" America: "YOU'RE FIRED!!!!"

[@TheOneAndOnlyHope]

I literally called it. Even with your keys it predicted Trump to win but because of your biased lense, you gave the keys to Kamala

[@valeyxrd]

Exactly. The keys don’t work if they’re biased 😂

[@brettwharton]

Same

[@boohere2]

@TheOneAndOnlyHope, he is NOT biased. Think about it, he said Trump would win in 2016. He said Bush would win years ago. He isn't biased against Republicans or even Trump. I just think the replacing Biden threw everything off.

[@louie45]

@@boohere2 nope they did a coup thats a scandal, peoples pockets determine a recession not the government defining what it is for them, not having a primary is not the same as no contest, Trump is a once in a generational candidate but this guy hates him and can’t say it, and I’m seeing many college students say they was extremely afraid people was going to hurt them if they said the wrong words about Gaza, but in the end Alan Lichman‘s bias destroyed his reputation forever because now he can’t run to his excuse “i ment the popular vote”.

[@awesomemike1500]

@@boohere2 Okay Lefty

[@stoic2857]

Alright everyone accept it. Who all came back immediately after seeing the results ;)

[@MooseOsauras]

✋

[@E1zzzZ]

I always knew even when this video was first posted he’d be wrong

[@stoic2857]

@@E1zzzZ God bless Trump man !!!

[@E1zzzZ]

@ God bless him and you too brother!! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! 🇺🇸

[@loyalfilm]

Meeee!!!! First place I ran to LOL

[@martinbergara710]

Aged like Milk. Your system doesn't work anymore

[@joblive3084]

It does but he's biased.

[@whatthehellohmygodnoway-y5d]

They worked, he's just deranged and gave the 2 economy keys to kamala which is clearly wrong

[@ps.6023]

@@joblive3084 not entirley, he wasnt biased when he predicted trump

[@joblive3084]

@@ps.6023 Yeah he wasn't but now he is.

[@FuzzyWalrus123]

It does but he is dishonest. He called Ukraine a military victory for Biden for example.

[@jakewaldman6243]

Saying trump is not charismatic is LAUGHABLE

[@MelissaWong-yb6jx]

@@jakewaldman6243 trump is a FELON 34 Felonies

[@jakewaldman6243]

@ Chief of the DOJ called it a perversion of justice. The charges are total bs

[@Warvr]

@@MelissaWong-yb6jx and he will be your president. Because people are tired of liberal bs

[@mystdragon8530]

@@MelissaWong-yb6jx In a political attack which makes them moot.

[@apostateunion]

​@@MelissaWong-yb6jx I still love him no matter how many felonies.

[@Muahaha651]

His prediction is Kamala. I saved you all 7 minutes

[@jacobclemmons4769]

He'll only be accurate if the dems cheat again 😪😪

[@Solomonadhi]

ধন্যবাদ 😂

[@derekhacker9900]

He said that the Democrats will not win if they replace Biden, so how is he now saying Kamala will win !? 😂😂😂

[@Kevintendo]

@@derekhacker9900I been following him for this election cycle, but I must’ve missed where he said that Pretty much everyone said that though - even like AOC. Remember when they were “Ridin’ with Biden”

[@user-oy3ok5vr4q]

@@derekhacker9900 he says that he thought it was a bad move, but also says the democrats saved themselves by uniting behind kamala harris

[@FNFiles]

WHO'S HERE AFTER KAMALA LOST AND TRUMP WON? 😂

[@pianotiles595]

Here!

[@FestusParker-sm9gg]

I am.

[@E1zzzZ]

🙋

[@eliasziad7864]

Trump won incredibly. He's down by only 9 points in New York, 5 points in New Jersey.

[@Slidein-xn6uz]

Half america came back to this video, to make fun of this clown 🤡😂

[@Alexis-mg7ni]

In 2028, we will probably not see this type of video anymore.

[@MasterCapitalist]

Because he will probably be dead ☠️

[@thefriesens1071]

The thing about people like this is that there are a million of them. It's like everyone who fills out a March Madness bracket. Someone's bound to predict correctly for awhile, but eventually it all crashes down.

[@kam1470]

@@Alexis-mg7ni guys, Kamala/Biden 2028 lol

[@lelouchlamperouge4103]

@@kam1470 Haha

[@joeruiz4010]

He'll be better off in retirement.

[@aussieboy4090]

Allan Lichtman YOU’RE FIRED

[@amazinganimationgaming399]

69th like

[@malakiherby]

Who's here after the election?

[@UltimateGaming-ih]

I am

[@CowGuyAdventures]

When I first watched this video I knew I’d be coming back to look at the sweet comment section 🤣

[@Snowball89871]

Yeah, I did that too 😂😂😂😂😂

[@foakjljrwajkltawtrawtwa441]

Me too 😂🎉

[@arandomguy3630]

Same 😂😂😂

[@Aditya-tx3zc]

Same was waiting for this

[@AliMoeini-z2k]

😂🤣Me too , and i search for this video a lot to come back😅

[@PolBearr12]

Turns out , he can be wrong after all.

[@coltonthompson5978]

His keys are right. His interpretation was wrong.

[@japt.]

This did not age well.

[@joeruiz4010]

7/13/2024, Butler County, Pennsylvania. That day ended Lichtman's 13 Keys Model, and the Democrats were destined to lose 2024 after that.

[@victorc777]

Predictions don’t work if you don’t VOTE!

[@grahamfloyd3451]

This one does, as voter turnout isn't one of the keys.

[@royroland3884]

VOTE PEOPLE! VOTE!

[@drgrey7026]

@@grahamfloyd3451sure but as seen in 2000 the race doesn't always go to the rightful winner, good turnout can reduce that possibility.

[@mcblaze1968]

Yep. The onetime he's been "wrong" was Gore. Vote!

[@alexw.132]

People who want to vote for Harris should realize that she will most likely make things worse than they already are! Like Biden, she's not competent! If another Democrat was running against Trump, then I could see Alan's prediction maybe coming true, but so many people are fed up with the Biden Administration, and Harris is a part of that administration! I realize that Trump's personality is something that a lot of people hate, but when it comes to a better economy and peace, I think Trump would be a better choice! Not only that, but the presidential debate hasn't happened yet! We don't know yet what will happen with that, and neither does Alan Litchman!

[@Transforsen]

As soon as the results came in, I came here 😂

[@mtoffo2275]

As soon as the results came in, I came

[@TheAurelianProject]

Saying Trump is uncharismatic is complete rubbish.

[@camoturtle18]

Who came back just to say bro was WRONG!? 😂

[@KingK2205]

ME

[@dresdenwarlock7978]

Cool. But NOBODY GET COMPLACENT OR LISTEN TO POLLS. VOTE! NOTHING IS GUARANTEED OR ASSURED! VOTE LOCALLY, VOTE FOR PRESIDENT! VOTE!

[@Etherglow_]

Vote vote vote !!! 🇺🇲💙🇺🇲💙🇺🇲🎉

[@Historyiswatching]

Vote senate too!!!

[@myninja0001]

I WILL.. FOR TRUMP

[@LosaliniDrauna]

Humans make mistake not God

[@PS-kd1if]

“All things are possible with God.” Go Trump! 🇺🇸

[@GrowGreet]

This aged like a beer infront of the sun

[@thesun___]

Especially when you have a sun like me.

[@anonypoke7486]

HOW DARE ALL OF YOU COMMIT BLASPHEMY AGAINST HIM

[@OladejoYusuff-b6s]

Who's here after Trump won 🥱🥱🥱

[@dakaraijordan2476]

yup

[@KingK2205]

ME

[@Jagar_Tharn]

Nobody is here.

[@BobChippewa]

@@Jagar_Tharn I'm here and I'm a life long Democrat since 1972, and voted for Mr. Trump.

[@TheTrue.Patriot]

This dude should never show his face again on social media 😂😂😂😂

[@johnsonfromml8662]

His keys theory is good but his bias is horrible 😂

[@charrio2]

Let's see your PICTURE genius 😂😂🤡👹👹

[@eliasziad7864]

13 keys to retirement.

[@bluecat7684]

@@johnsonfromml8662too broad

[@johnnyb7628]

He deleted his twitter account 😂😂😂

[@MrDaviyd]

Looks like Allan was wrong! Wow.

[@jimmyjiang6808]

Yep, the women candidates never win they have to stop putting these women as president candidates because it has a 0% success rate. For some reason the voters seem to not approve of the women candidates

[@TheAurelianProject]

This guy is extremely out of touch

[@ultrablade2580]

This video aged horribly

[@nnanousis]

9 out of 11. Keys failed prof. Third party key was false because RFK JR supported Trump and short term economy was NEVER as good as when Trump was in office. MAGA

[@NicitoStaAna]

the short term was bad for like a year then 3 years of smooth sailing after a pandemic/money printer goes brrr,, (caused by Trump) if anything. it improved/stabilized under Biden

[@bluecat7684]

@@NicitoStaAnait never FELT good though, they key is based on perception

[@Mizzen3]

2016 popular vote too

[@Mistoffillies2]

@@NicitoStaAna u serious? inflation much?

[@mystriddlery]

@@NicitoStaAna The only people who think the economy is fine live in their parents basements and have no jobs or bills. Go out and buy some groceries and tell me the economy is fine.

[@tbc9096]

I love that everyone is rightfully trashing this man. 😂

[@rebeccahenderson7761]

Check your Voter Registration and VOTE!!!

[@nancyroth]

Exactly!! And just because the news has not reported " your" town does not mean it is not suseptible to hacks!🎉 Check and VOTE 🗳 😉 👍 sincere thanks, Miss Rebecca❤

[@sandymarchena3837]

@@Mrchickenwing74 vote blue? I guess you don't think illegal immigrants are getting enough of our money huh

[@adonisduque]

Checking my registration this week and sgsin in Oct. I live in a deep red state in texas that pass bills under the radar

[@joesmith-em2cd]

Trump is TOAST. 😂😂😂😂😂

[@so1963]

@@Mrchickenwing74 , Why would anybody want it to stay how it has been the last few years? They need to get their head checked out if they think things have been good the last few years!

[@mo7nas]

Funny how he called the economy "doing ok, no crisis like 2008" look again bro

[@barbrothers2]

also no social unrest? there is absolutely social unrest, he is choosing to ignore it. trump is not charismatic to a "narrow" selection of voters, he's charismatic to half of the country

[@austinpoznoski3083]

he looks like both Trump and Biden at the same time

[@dwainschumer9298]

To me, he looks like a guy in a bad toupee

[@CodyOsteen5]

😂

[@wandacalcano2217]

Two spirits in one body 😂

[@n.c.9023]

But he's as smart as Woodrow Wilson 😂

[@allenriff9242]

@@n.c.9023 that means he's not very smart

[@Jemz35]

I will come back to this video after the election. EDIT: Wow I guess someone changed the locks.

[@BigEustace]

To say that Kamala won?

[@mustardman5618]

@@BigEustace Sure

[@Lucas-gs6qz]

@@BigEustace sorry bud its over

[@LEYTHLEGACY]

​@@Lucas-gs6qzwhat happened

[@Lucas-gs6qz]

@@LEYTHLEGACY trump won, im from the future

[@liamnixon4428]

Even though this guy says that Kamala Harris will win the election, you never know until it actually happens. Don't be complacent, and get out and vote for your candidate regardless of what predictions say!

[@DoubleplusUngoodthinkful]

I'm not saying Kamala won't be the next president, but she will not "win" the election the way most of us understand the word "win".

[@TonecrafteLuthiery]

Couldn’t agree more. The vote is the only thing that matters.

[@DoubleplusUngoodthinkful]

He did NOT say she would win. He simply said Kamala would be the next president.

[@ruth80809]

Voting is the way to go! 💙🥥

[@liamnixon4428]

@@DoubleplusUngoodthinkful Isn't that the same thing? Besides, my point is that when supporters of a certain candidate hear "your favorite candidate will win the race", they may become complacent, and if enough people do that, it might hand over the win to your opponent, especially in a tight race. Never forget Florida back in 2000!

[@smokeykitty6023]

Women: The vote is private. Vote your own interest. He'll never know.

[@leslie5435]

@@briankirksey3128 Dobbs. Women care about Dobbs.

[@BuddhaAfterDark]

That comment goes both ways ladies 😂

[@JoeZaccaris]

I honestly believe 50% of Republican women will secretly vote for Kamala --- once they get inside the polling booth, their racist husbands can't control them

[@abderrahimbenmoussa4359]

​@@briankirksey3128 shut up Brian, no woman asked your advice.

[@anniejuan1817]

@@BuddhaAfterDark The overwhelming majority of women are pro-choice.

[@sebinprasad]

😂 Who came back here after the election to have a good laugh!

[@wiggafish795]

For anyone with a short attention span he said Kamala’s gonna win

[@ghost19398]

Thanks

[@Loo-lp1fs]

​@ghost19398 can she win big just what reagan did in 1984?

[@thatgirl4633]

Nooooooo!!!

[@pestemmedico6369]

Thank you! I was hoping for this very comment! Saved me some time!

[@user-js6ex7jh7e]

😂

[@haleydan]

Well mr.Allan, your winning streak is over.❤️

[@hellothere4599]

@@haleydan His keys were actually correct he just interpreted them wrong due to his hate of Trump

[@npsloopy6758]

Dr. Lichtman has said on his podcast that the keys will not work unless the voters show up. VOTE!

[@Italy.com33]

😂😂😂😂😂 That man is a Liar liar 🤥

[@glenchapman3899]

Preach it brother!!!!

[@m1719-p3w]

She’s down 6 in PA. 😂

[@Italy.com33]

@@m1719-p3w exactly lol This man is so old I think he’s seeing ghost lol

[@Franiac32]

@@m1719-p3w uh huh, sure bud.

[@TheGodfather101]

"He predicted gore in 2000, Trump for the popular vote in 2016 and now Harris" There, fixed your title.

[@briansass9551]

"But the outcome is up to YOU. Get out and VOTE!" Best line in a great segment.

[@isaiasovelar4434]

The future is what you make of it, so make it a good one.

[@ebperformance8436]

Voting is one of the most strongest weapons……anyone who complains about a candidate, and didn’t vote….HAS NO SAY. 2024 💙 btw 🎉

[@JN-xb6pq]

Best line if you mean going from reasoned and rational to emotive and irrational. The outcome is a product of aggregation, it definitely is not up to YOU.

[@zolten3947]

I'm voting Trump personally I don't see why people like Harris lol. She's literally the Vice President and is acting as if she has no power. "We're going to end price gouging!" Like, she's literally the VP. How about she ends price gouging now while she has power?

[@flappypancake85]

@@zolten3947VP inherently has no power unless you count senate tie-breaking.

[@Pdru77]

He never missed a prediction… well, now he did.

[@Keepontruckin1904]

Yep this didn’t age well. I’m sure in 2028 he will say he correctly predicted this race too. Time to update your model sir

[@N1IT3]

not before they reshoot this video and reupload it

[@FarhoodKarimiRahimi]

He will be like 81 once the next election happens

[@naran3337]

This aged horribly…

[@logiclegion3881]

Keep running, it's time throw your keys to trash.🤣🤣🤣

[@awatermelon314]

Well, this aged well.

[@KVKaoruko]

I came here to laugh at you.

[@TrapConnoisseur]

so real juicer

[@watcheronly71]

Too early bro

[@AltraHapi]

when the medieval music guy comes out to laugh it's over

[@user-ci5le3uk5l]

Professor time to retire cause your BRAIN IS OFFICIALLY MUSH🤣

[@flip8037]

This man’s reputation is shot! Long live the President-elect!

[@steviewang4102]

Dude's 77, looks 57, got the physical energy of a 37-year-old, and the hair of a 17 year old

[@oscarvilla8166]

Im 37 and in fact do run like that

[@ehanna1003]

I believe you mean the toupee of a 17 year old.

[@dragonbone5000]

lol. He definitely doesn’t look like 57. He looks like a fit 75 year old.

[@deansmith6593]

So anyone in good physical shape puts on a wig and you think they look 20 years younger? Look at his face not the wig :D

[@xxdesertstorm]

@TomOBedlam-r6t its not rewatch the beginning buds but you won't like a MAGGOT MAGA does

[@Tristan_Willcox]

This aged poorly

[@toggle2565]

His keys work if you apply them with no bias.

[@JulianElrod]

On the wikipedia page for the 13 keys, it shows each key every candidate since 1860 won and lost. It eould be interesting to see if your interpretation of the keys does the same

[@machineryman7197]

Looks like his track record has gotten worse... perhaps he needs to update the "keys"

[@kucingoyen1]

I will visit this video again in November Update: this aged like milk

[@strangeroamer3219]

I'll wait.

[@chewie2055]

@@strangeroamer3219. Me too…..we will either cancel each other out or help who we both support…..👍

[@gautruc]

yeah

[@bradye21playsIndieHorror]

For the notification. If KZbin feels like giving one. 😂

[@AbiSanyaolu-z4l]

What you can do today don't leave till tomorrow 😊.

[@GraftonUrbatsch]

the white house must have gotten new locks

[@IowanMatthew683]

I'm no Trump supporter but even I'll admit that Lichtman let his political bias severely misinterpret his keys. His keys, when interpreted more accurately, anticipated a Trump win, especially with regards to the short-term economic and foreign policy keys (which Lichtman erroneously characterized as "successful" for the Democrats but should have been "Failures").

[@coinden3089]

and Now... he's wrong!

[@jonah003]

Who else came straight to this video?

[@hellosupnamesdannydandanie2703]

Me! 😂

[@pubby]

Guy may be right. But some of the answers to the keys he mentionned are debatable. post-election edit: TOLD YA

[@music4meh]

You mean the formulation and criteria of the key, or the interpretation of whether it is true or false? In other words, the question/key or the answer?

[@pubby]

@@music4meh i think the keys themselves are not bad indicators, but the answers provided for them are questionable.

[@stanislav328]

they've worked with high accuracy for 50 years, why are they debatable?

[@pubby]

@@stanislav328 the keys themselves are good indicators. His answers on them relating to this particular election are debatable.

[@music4meh]

@@pubby I get it. That's fair. Interpreting criteria is a difficult thing. I think it's a problem in both ethics and knowledge that we will never solve. We can have the best rules and laws, but how can we be certain we apply them ''properly''? How can you be certain your method to ascertain certainty is certain, or your ways to find truth are true, or that your means to evaluate righteousness are right? Exactly that is why conversation is important, so we can approach a consensus, not only on what the answers are, but on how we answer. No one and no answer is fully neutral, so we need many angles and answers to find where the right one lies.

[@tornadokegan]

In 2016 he was correct In 2020 he was also correct In 2024 he was wrong

[@nateisawesome766]

he was wrong in 2016 because it was a popular vote prediction

[@Derski211]

This guy and his 13 keys are almost as ridiculous as that god forsaken bowl haircut of his.

[@davidrutitsky9518]

Well this aged poorly

[@BrainRotCollector]

3:02 He says theres no third party, which boosts Kamala, but fails to mention that Rfk endorsed Trump giving Trump a major boost in votes

[@NickMucciante]

We can now throw this prediction model on the trash heap as I predicted.

[@jhinckle90]

It’s worked other times, he overestimated and downplayed a lot in this.

[@NickMucciante]

@jhinckle90 I'm surprised he even made a prediction at all after they threw Biden out. I think even he knew that was a terrible move.

[@anos213]

Reading the comments definitely tells me that the New York Times is catering to their audience.

[@anos213]

@Trout811 what does that have to do with my comment about the New York Times catering to their audience?

[@fourlights5751]

lol of course, its all rigged. People picked their collective sides, and the media is loosing its collective mind. Normal people are more bothered by why the hot water bill went up lol

[@anos213]

@Trout811 nothing is black and white. Saying that I'm a trump supporter from my comment on the terrible state of the New York Times is asinine. I'm a Democrat who despises the fact that I had no say in the picking of my candidate. Do I think that trump or Harris will be the downfall of the American democracy? No. That ship has already sailed. Call me whatever you want. I'm not voting for any of them.

[@Merble]

@@anos213 You didn't vote in the primary.

[@anos213]

@Merble that seems like a statement, not a question. The primaries ended in June. President Biden dropped out in July.... let's do some math

[@ArthurTheAbyssal]

This aged brutally bad lol

[@agrimpuriya2585]

For you 😉

[@bglassman08]

I can't believe I'm about to witness an election outcome even more satisfying than 2016 🤣🤣🤣

[@EchoVibe-n6t]

personally im looking super forward to democrat reactions to the results. in 2020 they blamed republicans for not being able to accept defeat, now they've used everything they had fearmongering, celebrity endorsements, ads, all of US media on their side, it'll be really fun to see how they react knowing they did all that for nothing 😂

[@bglassman08]

@@EchoVibe-n6t and now Lictman just acting like he was right the whole time and throwing tantrums everywhere makes it even better 🤣🤣🤣

[@yungredd1259]

bro said Trump had a narrow base look how that turned out... LMFAO

[@MeetThaNewDealer]

“The first party to retire it’s eighty year old candidate. Is going to be the party that wins the election.” Nikki Haley Given all that has happened in the past few months, it seems prophetic now.

[@HerMajesty1]

There are not two parties. There is one. Big joke on the foolish people

[@very5ick112]

trump is closer in family tree to john lackland trump is president

[@pexfmezccle]

The key says it's bad though

[@JoeZaccaris]

About the only truthful thing that Lying Nikki ever said

[@huntermattocks7200]

​@@very5ick112 like, King John Lackland? This isn't England lmao, that's makes no sense 😂

[@chrisrussell8245]

I think his keys make sense, but some of his answers to those keys seem out of touche to me. He says that the economy is good. Well, on paper perhaps. But he is completely ignoring how much Americans are suffering with inflation. I think people who have a lot of money just don't understand what a driving force this is.

[@vez3834]

Inflation has been global largely due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, America has had it relatively easy on that one. Sadly y'all don't like a livable wage or social support, so any kind of turbulence will destroy people. Don't forget medical debt and school debt.

[@wakandaforever2401]

@@vez3834 The introduction of a "livable" wage would send inflation into the stratosphere. It would eventually temper out, sure. But when your currency is the world's reserve currency, the rules are different. If the American dollar inflates to a point that countries don't think it makes sense to use it anymore, that will strip America of a large portion of its economic power.

[@shadowyzephyr]

The keys themselves are the problem. Nate Silver has a good discussion of the problems with that model.

[@foylebutler8952]

biden shutting down oil production was key to how bad the inflation has gotten. Everything moves by truck, boat , planes and trains . Fuel is Americas blood .

[@richardhenrysr5029]

inflation is down to 3% thanks to biden. trump started his inflation with covid which he did nothing about. it cost a MILLION peoples lives. all he did was tell people to drink bleach or take horse pills. millions of jobs were lost and in fact...NOW...we have the lowest unemployment numbers ever! he thought he could draw his scripto and move a hurricane or bomb it...!!!!...LMAO... that so called inflation is price gouging from corporations and the 1%. it's called flat ol' GREED! biden put billions into rebuilding bridges, roads, overpasses and maintaining the old stuff we have. it's going right back into america's infrastructure. when trump was in, it went straight into his overseas accounts. what people ought to be worried about is his threats to women and their rights being taken away. minority's should get ready. he is going to let people lose with their AR 15s'. he has already said so... if you don't value your freedoms in this country then go ahead...let him take everything you have...good luck with that!

[@EzRida04]

I'll be back here after the election. Edit 11/6 2024: Oops.

[@PodJeeMC]

count me in, I predicted Trump!

[@realwizardry834]

* after you go bowling

[@OldGlaseye-gf7si]

@@PodJeeMC Its Ok to be wrong...

[@HughMongusJazzhole]

I’m looking forward to rubbing in Hariss’ win on Xchan and 4chan

[@Todescookies]

le dot

[@Thedominator-tr2su]

Thank the Lord he was wrong. Democracy has been saved

[@chrissolace]

Like polls, these are *predictions* of the election and not the actual outcome. As the professor said, make sure to vote!

[@rosegombos2120]

His predictions are usually Right

[@ThePinoyAggie]

Polls are not predictors but a snap shot which candidates use to adjust their strategy.

[@anthonyvincent804]

I will vote for trump

[@Upcamehill]

The actual election results doesn't mean anything when cheating comes into play.

[@cynthiah5928]

Everyone VOTE!!!!! 💙💙💙💙

[@JaydenTMBTE]

This aged like Biden

[@asikbanget5041]

The key take out from all of this GET OUT THERE & VOTE !!

[@TyrellWellickEcorp]

Not vote for a shoddy ex prosecutor Marxist whack job who had one job (border czar) and failed miserably at it.

[@Dan-q6v1v]

No need to. Trump will win.

[@ja-mez5102]

The president was already chosen for us. I'm baffled by people who are gullible enough to believe in voting and this illusion of choice. The CIA has its hands in every country's election, having overthrown governments and installed their own. Why are the American people so naive as to think the deep state wouldn't meddle in our own elections? The deep state would not risk another Trump presidency. A CIA official has openly admitted to withholding intelligence from Trump. The consensus in government is that Trump is a liability and can't be trusted.

[@MasonGeary-d3q]

I did the math and if you actually did the keys right it would say Trump would win and he did

[@junkgrave]

Your streak is over bucko

[@tf8926]

Well, this didn't age well 🤣

[@DanielSerrano2005]

Just put the fries in the bag😭

[@Axarlus]

Who else watched this video before the election, saw the results, then came back? 😂😂🇺🇸

[@jackoalltrades5708]

wait, every Presidential election for 40 years, why have all that election expense, just ask this guy

[@albertmiao1976]

it's used to turn the keys! come on, it's not rocket science!

[@MultiBooster123]

He got Bush vs Gore wrong in 2000 because he didn’t take popular vote vs electoral vote into account

[@adriansmith7473]

​@@MultiBooster123gore was robbed

[@t4cot4ctical]

​@@MultiBooster123Gore would have won the electoral college too, by votes. He didn't take Supreme Court Corruption into account....please educate yourself on Bush v Gore

[@MultiBooster123]

@@t4cot4ctical 2000 or 2020... a stolen election conspiracy theory is just that. A theory

[@sarysa]

The lighthearted tone of the video absolutely gave it away.

[@narda1072]

Exactly. Trump is doom and gloom and he would be very frightened doing his prediction

[@blueboy3990]

This is clearly an Opinion video . They're not trying to be unbiased

[@alliedoublev9114]

Anyone that's been watching his KZbin page already knew the keys were leaning towards Kamala. He just didn't make official until now.

[@SC-RGX7]

I watched his predictions in 2016, 2020 and now in 2024. Gotta give him merit that the bases of his claims and predictions are well structured in a way that several sources are taken at their core and identified in a very simplistic process. However prediction or not, it's the voting that counts folks. Vote.

[@antifa_communist]

​@@blueboy3990 he predicted trump in 2016. If he was biased why would he say that?

[@traviskeeler5655]

I've seen Dr. Lichtman present his "keys" many times but it was nice to see the human side of him in this interview. Well done.

[@cacogenicist]

Seemed to me like the intended audience was 12 to 16-year-olds. I found it odd.

[@billzander2875]

but what was his distance and time? :)

[@philyvo]

@@cacogenicist I see no reason to confuse enthusiasm with oddity :)

[@RaacingAce]

Economic keys for Harris? He must be joking)) According to his system Biden had a better chance of winning. This guy is a big humorist.

[@Μ.Ζ-ρ4π]

No he isn't but go ahead and lie​@@RaacingAce

[@handsomegeorgianbankrobber3779]

Lichtman got the prediction wrong because of his definition of "strong short-term/long-term economy". He looks EXCLUSIVELY at the GDP numbers and doesnt consider at all how the voters actually FEEL about the economy. In other words, he ignored the fact that there does in fact exist such as thing as a "vibecession". The GDP numbers dont matter when 75% of the country feel the country is heading in the wrong direction. If the two keys relating to the economy had gone against the White House party, he would have predicted the outcome of the election correctly.

[@13KeysTracker]

It’s been a roller coaster ride for those of us who have been keeping track of the keys and anticipating this prediction for so long! Shout out to Allan and Sam Lichtman for their KZbin channel!

[@very5ick112]

trump will be the next president it does not go by votes it goes by bloodline trump is closer to john lackland

[@harpiareports]

@13KeysTracker Well said!

[@geogamr2493]

Allan will discuss his prediction in more detail on his channel at 6 PM PDT tonight. Be sure to check it out!

[@Natedawgg84]

Absolutely!

[@peacefulmomentsmusic3783]

Woohoo! Yeah Ive been waiting for a while now...

[@flyingchimp12]

bro literally just tried to convince us that RFK dropping out and endorsing trump helps Harris

[@trivialqed]

the kennedy name is strong enough among traditional democrats to vote for him but not to vote republican, even less to vote Trumo. its not a crazy take

[@shadowyzephyr]

@@trivialqed kennedy literally endorsed trump though

[@AndyH3000]

I think the key is based on the fact that third party candidates historically tend to pull more votes from incumbents (people voting for change who may not like the opposition party enough to vote for them). In this case, RFK's polling showed him pulling more votes from Trump, but in any case, it was a tiny amount. If it's a factor in either direction, it's a small one.

[@music4meh]

​@@shadowyzephyr it still would've statistically been better for Trump, or rather, worse for Kamala, had Kennedy continued the race. Other commenters explained it perfectly. Science and statistics are weird, you need to think a few steps ahead and acknowledge multiple angles.

[@michaellovetere8033]

@@trivialqed What? Many RFK Jr. supporters are going with Trump

[@samuelgreeley7782]

Looks like your streak is about to end!

[@MasterGuard41]

He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now…he's wrong

[@daisytwotoes]

You heard the man: GET OUT AND VOTE!

[@TheFrozenOne97]

Vote for DJT

[@phettywappharmaceuticalsll8842]

@@TheFrozenOne97the crybaby who won’t admit when he loses lol

[@TheFrozenOne97]

@@phettywappharmaceuticalsll8842 youre gonna cry when trump wins just like u did in 2016! Kamala has a NASALLY voice, she’s not presidential material

[@TheFrozenOne97]

@@phettywappharmaceuticalsll8842 Kamala has a nasally voice. She won’t win

[@GorgieClarissa]

@@TheFrozenOne97 why would anyone vote for a felon? that's weird.