Rampant Insider Selling Signals The End Of The Bubble In Stocks | Jesse Felder

[@v-2010]

Fed: “We see an increased risk of accelerating inflation.” Also Fed: “Here’s another rate cut.”

[@joebagodonuts8119]

Those phony Biden employment numbers are going to blow up in the Fed’s face.

[@MatthewGrace99]

Also Fed: 4.3% interest rate is still sufficiently restrictive. I think that's why they did a cut here and now are digging their heels in and not continuing to cut until they see more.

[@arandmorgan]

The CEO that was shot by Luigi Mangione was pulling his and the majority shareholder's stock secretly as to not panic the other investors. This quick reduction of interest rates is solely to provide the 1% time to liquidate their stock and share assets before the market crashes. It's a wealth transfer.

[@JocelynServignat]

Jesse is such a great person to interview. Such great insights.

[@pathologicaldoubt]

Always love when Jesse’s on

[@rifleman42051]

Spot on Jesse Bitcoin and the entire Blockchain sector = Tulip-mania 2.0!!!

[@Joseph.mansion]

Bitcoins going up forever, some guys on reddit said so!

[@rifleman42051]

@@Joseph.mansion Dam if that's the case. The Sky is Red! 🤣🤣🤣

[@davewood8985]

Excellent. Well thought out. Very mature outlook. Pragmatic.

[@t4ngen7]

Great insights and lots of substantive details. I’ve learned quite a bit.

[@SledgeHammer-bk5gg]

Every negative/warning data point and indicator that Jesse presented during this interview will align with an equities market pullback/correction. When that will happen is anybody's guess, which makes Jesse's negative/warning data points practically useless, for properly timing equities market investments. The last 12 months of SPX performance is proof, because we've had plenty of negative/warning data points, during all of those 12 months.

[@JRRob3wn]

Unless you are running a multi billion dollar hedge fund, you should not be timing markets.

[@alexonthemountain8343]

Great show guys. Couldn’t have come at a better time. Thank you very much.

[@punkAF]

This is by far one of your best interviews. I cannot emphasize enough how much logic is built into these arguments, from my observations both anecdotally and what I've experienced watching the macro landscape for about a decade. I might add that the predicament does not extend exclusively to our domestic economy. The asset inflation, increasing GINI and sweeping sentiment of capitulation from the working class is well into South America, Europe, Asia and Canada

[@rasserfrasser]

Best Financial Times Channel on KZbin! Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, Adam!

[@cvrart]

36:00 - Nailed it! Completely on the money (so to speak). It's always curious to me how wealthy titans of the corporate world take for granted the diffuse and indirect effect that government largesse has on their ability to build wealth. They think it's all up to their sheer entrepreneurial genius, rather than perhaps some overstimulation of the economy through fiscal and monetary policy, and deregulation of the banking and financial sector (which helps amplify their wealth but creates more systemic risk for all to suffer from later during crises), and just an excess of money supply and liquidity sloshing around that lets them create overvalued profitless flying robotaxi startups and the like.

[@skyyefinance]

Socialism for corporations and the wealthy. Cold hard capitalism for the rest of us.

[@PE-TX]

Always like to hear what Jesse Felder is saying!

[@jamesmorton7881]

Ten-thousand VW & Mercedes workers have no choice, hang on here we go. Massive job cuts will hit the USA next, watch Germany. No way out, the mega corps went to China. End of the US Empire. ❤❤. All caused by the Demand Destruction policy of the FED. Bon Zi . . . . . . . . 😂😂

[@billfletcher5495]

When the selling finally starts there will be nobody around to buy. Good luck NVDA and Bitconers, you will need it.

[@istvanpraha]

The chart at 21:50 can't be correct, CNBC is telling me earnings will increase 10-15% in 2025!

[@alexYT87462]

Adam i love when you ak the question..."what would you have to believe...." in the context of challenging conventional wisdom. The answers this solicits are more ofetn than not "pure gold". And Jesse's answer was no exception. Keep up the great work! And please keep bringing Jesse back.

[@ParkSloper]

Would definitively like to see Ruchir Sharma as a guest. His work is excellent and his latest book, as Jesse points out, a must read.

[@BillSmith-c2q]

A year ago "2024 "Going To Be A Lot Worse" For Markets As Tech Stocks Implode | Fred Hickey (w/ Adam Taggart)" that didn't age well.

[@JRRob3wn]

You should find the show where New Harbor predicted the S&P would drop to 1500 in 2024. It was at the end of 2023. 🤡

[@atunis5804]

very knowledgable guest

[@mattanderson6672]

Fantastic discussion Excellent analysis Jesse Thank you Sir Really interesting I always love listening to you Adam, you always the the best guests Thank You Gentlemen Thank you TM, you are waking up and educating a whole generation

[@istvanpraha]

Agreed on part around 42:00 where it's a shame that people look to stocks for financial independence, no longer their job/income! Living through this. They're laying off/outsourcing in my industry even though sales aren't down. Apparently only people in India are the only ones with a future. As cost of live goes up. It's rigged for us to fail

[@ronprychon2916]

We are fooooooked

[@johntrevett2944]

Not if you know Jesus Christ

[@antoniolombardo3296]

This is the most bizarre bubble. Everyone saw the bubble coming and everyone agrees that it’s a bubble….

[@FreeSpeech4All]

Inflation keeps the bubble growing much further than anyone would expect... but it will pop... eventually.

[@JDHart]

Great interview Adam. Thank you for your good work.

[@johnburdick3773]

Sounds like a perfect storm for Trump’s presidency pushing Congress back to Dems in the mid terms

[@stephtraveler7378]

Current data is not trustworthy. We are in an age where you can only draw reliable conclusions using revision data. Unfortunately, that's the world we live in today. i.e. job report showed job growth over last 12 months. Revised data showed actual job losses...

[@JScottHamilton]

Since 2019, we don't even have a good baseline to evaluate the data and trends that have recently been recorded accurately. It would be like trying to compare 1929 - 1933 using 1900 - 1928 as a baseline.

[@skyyefinance]

CPI understates true inflation. Back in 1980 it went away from apples to apples, enabling substitution of lower priced goods. The effect over 44 years has been tremendous. Purchasing power has been drastically reduced.

[@4000angels]

Outstanding interview as always. Thank you.

[@dawnblack7957]

Great interview. Thank you both.

[@TomHawk640]

Diversification is great in principle, but it's not going to protect you from a market "correction."

[@MichaelLoweAttorney]

If there is a stock market crash, it’s hard to imagine a contemporaneous treasury bond crash.

[@mtanner5168]

Would love to hear more about natural Gas/ energy assets in general. Valuations appear attractive but the stock prices continue to plummet…

[@FreeSpeech4All]

Yup.

[@Christianevanwhite]

Enjoyed hearing Jesse's take on things.

[@rd9102]

America will ALWAYS be a meritocracy because it IS the land of opportunity. The real problem is that people don't know WHAT THEY DON'T KNOW and they don't spend time learning, they spend time entertaining themselves and then complaining while they make bad/poor/misguided uses of their time and resources. Learning does not stop when formal school stops, you have to continue to grow your knowledge and learn, if you don't then you stagnate and don't grow. Learning NEVER STOPS, growing NEVER STOPS. Great interview.

[@zulustu8214]

The issue here is trying to make sense of what is not sensible….

[@awesomeBLT]

Well, after yesterdays selloff its hard to argue against this point.

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@MalcolmGeorge-w6g]

Jesse is great!

[@JohnTaylor-ts8wk]

You're right on the feel there - incomes won't get you anywhere and you can only get ahead by winning on the markets. I have a couple friends doing that with XRP. They don't earn much & need a big win; I tried convincing them to take profits but they won't. I'm doing that with mining stocks and US Cannabis. All my money is there, some in shares and some in Jan 2027 calls. I earn enough to split between a few risky gambles, but not enough to get anywhere on just income.

[@lotusday7551]

Jesse is great

[@Reflect50]

Fantastic interview !!!

[@jvancek]

Loved it. Only concern is labor does not have much power to fix wealth inequality with robots/automation coming fast, hard to see how the current paradigm meaningfully changes b4 that takes over

[@mvexler]

Very good interview with Jesse! While he mentioned Sharma as the most recent author, what is wrong with capitalism is not new...Thomas Piketty, Joseph Stiglitz, and Mariana Mazzucato have tackled similar issues regarding inequality, governance, and the role of capitalism in society.

[@skyyefinance]

We have shareholder capitalism in US, where corporate profits are all that matter. Europe has stakeholder capitalism where employees, customers, the community and the environment all matter, too.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

And we don't have free market capitalism anywhere... which is why the US has an awful wealth divide and Europe has shared poverty... but nowhere has shared prosperity anymore.

[@istvanpraha]

Speaking of the technicals around 39:30, yes I've seen this and it's driving me nuts! The mania really started 9/18/2024, so the moving averages all shot up, so from a "technical" level, it looks impossible to go below 5750. Even though that's still bubble/overpriced mania pricing. At least today's action is a bit better last week, when perma bulls were using TA to show how going "down to" SPY 6000 would be a huge drop. Makes you realize that TA doesn't work well during manias.

[@DjmMik]

Thanks Adam. Great interview. Very “Thoughtful”…pun intended 😎

[@adam.taggart]

Glad you enjoyed it!

[@jessrosenblatt9835]

really good discussion love the charts.

[@RachelCunningham-ut9ks]

Adam we needed BREAD jokes not halitosis jokes!!!! yeast, the rise, something about brioche :) ty as always for these fabulous interviews

[@cvrart]

25:30 - I believe investors are sleepwalking into this century's 1929 crash. It's going to be epic, and it will take a few years to unwind, just like in the 20th century. Once the dust finally settles in a few years, margin account leverage will be back at the lower bound of the historical range, as will S&P aggregate price-to-sales, S&P aggregate price-to-book ratios, and other measures of valuation. Trump 2.0 will end up being Hoover 2.0. Instead of Hoovervilles, America will be filled with Trumpvilles. America will experience a period of austerity like no American living has ever experienced in their lifetime. If bitcoin doesn't implode and takes on the role of "digital gold", then holdings of bitcoin will be seized by the US government in the same way that gold was seized in the 1933. There is no easy way out, and the wealthy won't escape unscathed. This all leads into the Fourth World War (we're currently embroiled in the Third World War, but historians haven't labeled it as such yet).

[@johntrevett2944]

Trump, Kushner, Zionism and the Rothschilds.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

Yup, but does that happen now or hold off until 2029?

[@cvrart]

@@FreeSpeech4All well, there's no reason why it should wait until exactly the same year of this century. The trigger will be conditions, not a specific date. Maybe it's more likely to happen when nobody's expecting it because they're taking such a simplistic view of the cycles of history. If you follow the thinking of Neal Howe, these big cycles take about 88-90 years.- a little under a 100, or more likely linked to life expectancy and family formation trends, since his framework is based on cycles of four generations, and the timing of generations will be dependency on trends in life expectancy and when how long people wait before forming families. Personally, I believe we've been in the blow-off-top / melt up / whatever-you-want-to-call-it in 2024. The un-inversion of the yield curve is the most reliable marker.

[@FreeSpeech4All]

@@cvrart I don't particularly disagree... but I think, unfortunately, that our societies and our markets are FAR more controlled than most people realize. Howe's Fourth Turning, in my view, is less an analysis of what should happen, and more predictive programming of what our overlords would like to happen so that we accept the fate they have planned for us as "inevitable" rather than resisting it. While I also feel we're in a crack-up boom, I think we're about to see little air let out of it followed by a further, max FOMO run that lasts through 2028... which is probably why Trump posted a "Truth" saying "The next time I leave, SELL!" (That would portend a bad 2029 paving the way for the UNs Agenda 2030 nonsense.)

[@Ed_Gein]

what is "short term" considered to be?

[@connorferguson2269]

The next 3 to 6 months

[@twhelostl61]

I'm smelling short sellers lately. Upside has slowed in equities. Employment and the Fed set a balanced economy. That's not the stock market. I see a slower go here. We haven't seen impacts from policy coming in the new admin. The markets hate uncertainty. Jesse is credible, and his ideas are helpful.

[@MichaelHarrington17]

Jesse provides great insights into the fundamental weaknesses in the economy and the markets. I'm guessing the Fed would let the market blow off its top for a correction because the credit spreads still show no sign of credit market weakness. Earnings may flatten out but insider selling makes perfect sense from a diversification standpoint. What we see in the global macro market is still consistent with a US centered melt-up and confirms the centripetal dynamics of finance: all value flows to the center. The US$ and US assets are the last good FOMO trade. Be diversified across US assets until everything else looks like a steal.

[@freshaquatics3652]

57:25 BTC would have to drop below 21,000 for $MSTR to be in “trouble”, but even then, they won’t get liquidated. ❤

[@FireEaterJahfre]

Great discussion, thanks! The influence of individual perceptions of futility are evident in the behavior shown by the income/stock market chart. When an individual perceives their situation to be futile it seems to unhinge rational human action and all kinds of things can happen from self-harm, gambling, irrational-seeming investment choices, and, unfortunately, perceived futility often results in harming other people. What do all those things have in common? The individual's perception of futility. Futility is the sense that, "Nothing I do matters." This can happen in relationships, in jobs, in finances, in dieting....and so on. Whether the perception is true or not is irrelevant. Objectivity and hindsight can often see much more productive choices that could have been made. But in the moment, Human Action is driven by the individuals immediate perception of the value of their next action....whether that is choosing between a sip of coffee and a bite of pancake or whether to bet the farm on cryptos. I think the rational mechanism remains intact but the perceived value of actions in the face of futility are aimed at proving one's actions MATTER. To prove they are NOT FUTILE.

[@margrietlaan8020]

LIKED!! 😊👍

[@petergozinya6122]

Thank you Adam

[@waynezw]

Stock market will continue to go up in 2025. Why? too much cash on the sideline and an overvalued stock market usually can be even more overvalued before it crashes.

[@JRRob3wn]

Also, because every guest on this channel has been calling for an imminent catastrophic crash for four straight years. There’s no reason to believe they will break their track record of being embarrassingly wrong.

[@ES_5172]

I recommend you interview the market sniper (Francis Hunt).

[@arandmorgan]

What is the point in lowering interest rates if it can't secure jobs? Wealth transfer?

[@SledgeHammer-bk5gg]

Making stock market investment decisions that are based on economic data/indicators is an expensive fools errand. The most recent period of time that starts with the onset of the yield-curve inversion is just one very good example.

[@connorferguson2269]

So what your saying is that inflation is here to stay if they dont want a recession.

[@robertratz5305]

Great show.

[@BillSmith-c2q]

8 months ago "The Market Is Priced For A Fairytale Economy, But Stagflation Is Much More Likely | Jesse Felder" that didn't age well.

[@JRRob3wn]

Grifter like every other guest.

[@fionahenderson3352]

This was great thankyou

[@daminc]

I bet the book being mentioned at 31min is "The Dao of Capital" by Mark Spitznagel ❤

[@cvrart]

43:55 - Yep! This is a great insight, and one that I share. Because of the massive expansion in the wealth gap and the broad sense of lack of any opportunity for advancement of the majority of people, society has fallen into a kind of despair where people are being drawn to the promise of a way out... it's exactly how the people who spend the greatest percent of their money on buying lottery tickets are the very people who are the most desperately poor and with the least money they can afford to lose, but they're at the point where they actually feel thar they have nothing left to lose. I think this is also a reason why other forms of gambling have proliferated in recent years, such as sports betting, or elections betting. Too many people have no inspiring vision of their future and are just grasping at straws.

[@willskol]

Tiptoe through the tulips.

[@JScottHamilton]

Try not to step in the $hitcoins.

[@JSS54321]

Excellent

[@nickzivs]

He said this the last time that you had him on. In fact, it almost feels like the video title is recycled lol.

[@michaeloconnor6683]

Guy just couldn't bring himself to say the passive bid is driving everything

[@HansSchick]

Pump and dump episode played on a down day . The sky. The sky. The sky .

[@wayneo7220]

I'm surprised he doesn't see that people are piling into stocks because they do NOT want to hold dollars. 36 trillion dollars of debt has people scared.

[@JRRob3wn]

Treasury yields are dropping rapidly. No point in holding cash.

[@HansSchick]

Hindenburg Omen. That big patch of red where the market just ,up and to the right semms to show that the indicat is trash .

[@karlbork6039]

Joseph Wang who worked at the FED just said The FED will cuts rates six times in 2025.

[@sudo2998]

Adam, you should bring Ruchir Sharma.

[@gabrielw7773]

Where the hell is the inflation going to come from if everything is showing deflation. Metals selling off, oil selling off, Housing selling off, every sector except tech selling off. Economy is slowing, world economies are slowing. Everyone, including the bond market, is saying inflation. If the bond market is so smart then maybe the slow down is incorrect. If it wasn't for the fed selling then bond yields would be coming down.

[@fredrickpm]

Money printing to reduce debt to gdp

[@gabrielw7773]

@@fredrickpm So where was the inflation from 2009-2020?

[@JScottHamilton]

An economy can have consumer price inflation while at the same time going through asset deflation. The Chinese are going through that currently where food costs are going up but the cost of new and used houses are going down.

[@gabrielw7773]

@@JScottHamilton Won't happen with a dollar going up, oil coming down and home construction going down. Especially with all the debt and economic growth declining. To have inflation history shows you have to have economic growth. We also don't have an economy that involves manufacturing but one of services. Bonds are only going down not because of inflation but the fed is selling them. When they stop, because they are the largest owner, bond yields will come down because inflation isn't there.

[@markocarroll9424]

Cattle, coffee, gallium, education , insurance, stocks Some things down for sure but others up

[@thomasgarcia6344]

That's funny, "Halitosis" : )

[@sumitomoO0O]

Trump will create a bitcoin strategic reserve, then the next president will sell all that bitcoin and create a strategic reserve of Solana coin; then the next president will sell all that Solana coin and create a reserve of AIM335 coin

[@martinithechobit]

LEST GOOO.

[@jimtillapaugh5551]

Oh boy this looks bad 😮

[@Jorgie1944]

So apparently Musk is in charge so can you tell me how to invest/diversify to profit from this reality (without actually buying anything directly connected to him)?

[@ralphhiggs5803]

Ha ha ha musk is in charge! The people are in charge. This is a populous movement. It's not to so easy to make money in the market when you take in consideration INFLATION.

[@user-dhjs8746]

Can someone please add a TL; DR?

[@backrack01]

No bust.

[@georgedoolittle9015]

Hard to bust the punch bowl by lowering interest rates in response to raging inflation realities but yes in theory the raging inflation itself blowing up the US Treasury market will take down the US equity market 1973-1974, 1979-1980, 1981-1982, 1993-1994, 2008, 2022, possibly 2024 all very much coinciding with elections oddly enough. The latest example does be "lower rates equal higher rates" but this has blown up pretty much every currency not the US Dollar on the face of the Earth and not the US equity market. Borrowing costs have most definitely soared for the Global Consumer leading to a very strong bid into gold and silver in addition to equities and the US Dollar. Oil and natural gas also very well bid. So are Airlines. If none of this makes sense to you holistically welcome to the World of finance money as opposed to physical cash. Long $unp Union Pacific Railroad strong buy 😊😊

[@Yoyowuzgood]

How would insiders like Tim Cook be buying Apple though . With what money . Or NVDA or TSLA . Those people are max long , or have all their money in their own stocks already

[@JScottHamilton]

Incentive stock options exercises, whether cashless or with personal funds, would still be recorded as a "purchase" for purposes of statutory reporting. At lot of these purchases by the rank and file as well as executives are effectively zeroed out when the shares acquired through these non-public options are immediately sold.

[@ZorroDaddy]

TIME STAMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE, ITS A LONG VIDEO.

[@johnzz4897]

One thing I dont see many people talking about is the impact humanoids will have on the market so thank you for touching on that

[@cruzn4ever169]

crash is BEGINNING 0:40

[@vike231]

Wall Street will respond with a round of "beat the street". When companies start reporting 4th quarter earnings they will lose less or make more than the analysts estimates. It goes like this using Citi's earnings from the 3rd quarter 2009 . In this report C lost $20 Billion and yet the stock price doubled! That was because the analysts were calling for a $20.6 Billion loss but the magnificent management team were able to beat that number by 600 mil!

[@PatamaGomutbutra]

Money from naive foreign investers via hedge fund still flood with desparately seeking gain more than local market. The pop of US market will lead to global retail lost. Howevrr it is necessary to stop malignant asset tumors.

[@TheMasterhomaster]

Insiders sell when their stocks are high? Wow, shocking (yes this is sarcasm.)

[@merlinwizard1000]

3rd, 19 December 2024

[@gawhite1]

Markets rule, Presidents not so much. So who rules the markets? answer; Not you and me.

[@viewerone]

First it was the Fed then it was AI mania that delayed the recession and crash.

[@johnminichielli8957]

A blind man could tell you everythings in a bubble, but even Einstein couldn't tell you when it's going to burst.

[@DeFi-Macrodosing]

Quick reminder: perma-bearishness is not helpful. Stop it.

[@connorferguson2269]

Btc has begun crashing, we might have hit max stupid with fart coin hiting a valuation over 90% most corperations.

[@campmark50]

Pretty disingenuous to say it's a problem that the economy favors asset owners over workers in the same interview that you're lionizing Reagan. Are you not familiar with trickle down economics?

[@XpackLersV]

Consistently the WORST takes on Bitcoin and MSTR. Its unbelievable lmao

[@butch912]

The stock market is a big casino. DJT stock is currently trading for $35/share and has no fundamentals. Explain that to a young investor.😂

[@realitybitesw4900]

What is wrong with capitalism? karl Marx has spelt out very clearly in his books.

[@JRRob3wn]

Well then, if Marx said it, it must be so!

[@shelteredshaman5992]

Yeah, so let's see how the Trump billionaire oligarchy team helps Labor. lmao

[@KaioTelles-n9x]

✊Thanks for the update. I advise traders, especially beginners, to research the market before entering it. I have to say that trading is more rewarding than just owning. Big thanks to William James who always keeps me updated. I am so glad I started his program🚀

[@LucasBrito-t8z]

HOW DO I GET ON THIS ??????

[@KaioTelles-n9x]

he communicates on telegram

[@c00l8ball]

@williamjtrader ✅

[@c00l8ball]

@williamjtrader⭐⭐⭐that’s his username

[@KaioTelles-n9x]

@williamjtrader