Rivian's New Competitor Is a Huge Problem

[@stevewoodruff4175]

Thanks for the Bear case analysys. Here's the inversion: These new Scout vehicles are slated for 2027. Meanwhile Rivian is on track to release a mass market and highly anticipated SUV, the R2, in 1H26. Rivian has a history of meeting their projected launch dates, and sometimes giving us some nice surprise bonuses too (think R3 reveal with R2), so we have no reason to expect that date to be pushed back. Rivian currently has enough cash to get to R2 production ramp ,and has reiterated that. They have paused development of the GA factory to preserve capital until they ramp production in Il, which will save them ~$5bn as they move into volume production of the R2. Meanwhile, they're continuing to look for ways to accelerate both (eg. Seeking fed grant money for GA factory construction). As it stands though, they don't need to do any additional capital raise to get there. R2 will have a starting price of $45,000, well below the Scout, and hit the market at least a year earlier. While you have a fair point about other vehicles entering the market, these VW Scout prototypes are not a real threat. And, if you haven't seen the R2 prototype up close, it's an impressive vehicle inside and out. As to VW taking market share with a similar product, auto manufacturers cross license products and platforms all the time. For example Chrysler and Mercedes (Jeep Grand Cherokee = Mercedes M Class), BMW and Toyota (Toyota Supra = BMW Z4), Ford/Mazda, there are dozens more. If Rivian and VW do proceed with their Joint Venture, it will be a net gain for Rivian as it expands their platform reach and therefore the development budget. Plus, every Scout EV sold, not to mention every VW, Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, Bugati, etc., EV will be sporting Rivian licensed tech thereby earning Rivian a license fee. That adds up to a whole lot of potential additional revenue for Rivian. It's also worth noting that the simple fact that VW even wants Rivian's tech stack stack speaks volumes as to what Rivian has accomplished. Are there a lot of unknowns? Yes, for sure. Has Rivian shown they are able to execute? I believe they have. Have they shown they are able to adapt? Absolutely. If the parts ordering error that caused their reduction in 2024 production guidance results in their missing reaching positive gross profit in 4Q24, it's a minor setback - a delay, not an existential crisis. Whether they hit that target this quarter or next doesn't really matter on a longer timescale. What matters is how well they execute and adapt their plan as thwy progress. Ultimately, no one knows what the future will bring, but Rivian seems well positioned to be a substantial part of it. Disclosure: I am long RIVN

[@BryanA3115]

@@stevewoodruff4175 well said!!

[@mickeydongen]

He’s making a weird statement haha. Direct competitor jajajaja its increasing the production capacity for the rivian plants. They need to scale their manufacturing capacity to even be a player in this market! But who are we ey haha just stocked Rivn’s for the first time.

[@arcostonian]

Rivian has one of the best software platforms. The JV opens a new potential revenue stream to them, and it might not be the last. Every car Scout sells will probably have a piece of it going back to rivian. I think they will still be a maker in the future, but not a mainstream one. Scout will probably grow much faster

[@Jean-PierreGrenier-m2w]

Rivian was never planning on being profitable with the R1 platform.. Tesla made money when the 3 and Y came out.. Just have to get to that point.

[@SujithKalathiveetil]

You mentioned Scout is a competitor for the Rivian R2 rather than R1, because of size. The Traveler is actually a larger vehicle (208 inches long) than the R1S (201 inches long) despite the absence of a third row.

[@asymmetricinvesting]

Interesting.

[@disqjunky]

208 is without that rear spare tire. and the scout is 91" wide. that's 9" wider than the rivian, and 5" more than the Hummer EV to put things into scale. in fact the scout matches up more with the Hummer in terms of size versus the rivian. the Hummer is a hard no for as it's too big of a vehicle for my liking. garage space, parking practicality, and weight of the vehicle. America loves them some large vehicles. but by '27 Rivian will have smaller offerings that can potentially do well internationally. the scout has no place in the European market with its size.

[@hawaiifivejoe]

I have been seeing articles about Toyota Scout and Toyota Stout. Are they creating 2 different vehicles with names that similar? I hope not! Thnks for the video.

[@virgfresco1403]

Rivian is a Lux and high end expensive while Scout is at the lower end and less expensive.

[@BryanA3115]

I don't think a 10bil valuation is too high for where they currently are. They've really achieved and accomplished quite a bit already. I think Scout is being overly ambitious with their goals and what they think they'll be able to do. You're argument that they will be cheaper than Rivian is not accurate. The Traveler is a 2 row SUV, and although it is larger size, it will be competing with R2. R2 will start at a LOWER cost than Traveler. If it were competing with R1S, it would need to be a 3 row. I think Scout was being very careful with how they presented these vehicles. Even with VW as their parent, it will still be an extremely tough road and I think one that will cost a lot more than they think. Anything other than the absolute base model is not going to be anywhere near under 60k.

[@disqjunky]

with as large as this vehicle is, I don't see 60k being realistic. if it is it's not going to have that premium interior and 35" BFG tires with that kind of range. it's going to take a lot of batteries to get that thing to the 350mile range and that's where it's going to be costly. the way those scouts are spec'd for the unveil, that's easily a 90k vehicle minimum

[@MotoFishy]

Those Scout vehicles look solid, but let's see what the finished product looks like closer to release.....and what the price actually comes out to.

[@jorgecintron9674]

I’m shocked that VW got this so right. I assumed when they bought the Scout brand it was just all bs but holy crap. In two years to have 2 functional prototypes that fast is incredible. I’ve seen many prototypes that need a ton of work but these look very close to pre production or production ready. I’m guessing these will start rolling off the assembly line in mid-late 26’. I still can’t believe they got it right. I ordered a Traveler! I wish Rivian the best but they need to get the R2/3 out like yesterday.

[@JoeNo70]

If the Equinox is anything like the Blazer then it's not comparison. Knowing VW their vehicles will not have the same performance and cheaper interiors with awful seats. Again no competition and it may elevate and highlight the quality of Rivian and put them more in the high end vehicle range. Oh wait the price already does that haha.

[@jonbradshaw4517]

Rivian is trash

[@itisim]

Rivian might help vw manufacture

[@thelorf6713]

I find it interesting that VW is trying to pitch Scout as an American SUV with heritage from the original International Harvesters International toScout because... they bought some trademarks? They better order a bunch of those "Built Here Lives Here" stickers from Toyota.

[@kenny3657]

I like Rivian , but I’m more excited about the new Scout. If the production models r as cool as the prototypes Scout should do well. The Electric +Gas version is a smart move & I wouldn’t be surprised if Scout sells more of those. Rivian should offer an Electric+Gas version too ; seems obvious. Lastly, the CyberTruck should also come an a electric+gas version as well , this too seems obvious to me 🤷‍♂️

[@deerock7]

agreed. Rivians are such a plain design and way overpriced. This Scout looks the part and love the extra range availability. Plus they don't have that weird Harry Potter Glasses headlights that Rivian does.

[@DavidElCid300]

Maybe Rivian is getting a piece of the action.

[@TheKingOfInappropriateComments]

When car companies cannibalize each other, consumers win!

[@itisim]

This might can come out good for rivian

[@carlossilviotube]

It is not competition for another 2 years. By then, the R2 platform would already be out. At an even lower price.

[@itisim]

@@carlossilviotube cool

[@SGVFOOTBALL]

Rivian stock going crazy due to VW cash influx 🎉

[@carlossilviotube]

R1 3rd row not that spacious? Dude what are you comparing too? Have you even being in one. I had driven for months yukons, suburbans, ford expedition, tahoes, VW atlas, traverse, acadias, highlanders and own a 4runner, and a lexus GX. Where do would you stack the R1S then. I tell you what, just for the 3rd seats space only behing the suburbans/escalade/yukon XL. And i would argue your knees are lower. Anyhow... oh and r1s have more total cargo space than the NEW tahoes or short yukons.

[@asymmetricinvesting]

Was on the wait list for an R1 and cancelled when we drove it. Every vehicle we test drove I (6’2”) sat in the 3rd row. The R1 is tiny and no bucket seat option. We bought an Atlas for $30k less and it has more room.

[@carlossilviotube]

@asymmetricinvesting interesting i had the atlas for 4 months and would not say they are bigger. But well, I am not 6'2. Thanks for the reply.

[@carlossilviotube]

@asymmetricinvesting just checked and you are absolutely right. Who would of thought. So here is the conclusion Volkswagen Atlas: The Atlas offers more legroom in the third row, which can make it feel roomier for adult passengers. n R1S: While it has slightly less legroom, the Rivian R1S makes up with similar headroom and slightly more hip room. Third-Row Headroom VW 38.3 inches. R1S 38.2 in Third-Row Legroom VW 33.7 in. R1S 30.0 inches Third-Row Shoulder Room VW 54.9 in. R1S 54.6 in Third-Row Hip Room VW 45.1 in. R1S 45.6 in.

[@asymmetricinvesting]

@@carlossilviotube I'm not sure how more headroom is helpful if your legs are squished?!? Our thought process was we have 3 kids and our oldest is on a path to being ~6'5". I can't have a vehicle we can't pick up him and his friends from practice in 3-4 years. It was a purely practical decision and in our experience the Atlas was slightly bigger than the Telluride/Sorento/etc. Oddly, Honda and Toyota were baby-size third rows.

[@carlossilviotube]

@asymmetricinvesting Correct, i guess I had to go and check, and since you mentioned you were 6+ I had to check. Because my kids and inlaws praise the 3rd row of the rivian to be the best only second to the suburban and expedition. But in the end, you were right. So legs room is what makes it feel that much spacios for you guys since you both are very tall.

[@retroeck]

Rivian!

[@franksmartin1]

These won’t hit the road till 2028 - a. Eternity! And prices will be much higher

[@jaysolomon4426]

Lets not forget that this vehicle will also be available in a hybrid format. From what we've seen with this new segment of vehicles, hybrids are currently the number 1 choice for cunsumers. This option is the bridge to a full EV future. Rivian needs to add a hybrid at a lower price point or DIE a slow death.

[@majidfarahani1107]

The only resemblance is that they are both real SUV . Of course they both have the spare tire on the back as well. LOL. SHORT......

[@Ryan-cv3kq]

Every EV suv looks generic compared to the R1S, including scout’s. It’s bit goofy looking. R1S is swanky and regal looking. No one can replicate Rivian.

[@thrash123ful]

To me the Scout UV has a tougher more rugged stance the Rvian SUV is a little to narrow and the big wheels don't help its looks.

[@cascaderetriever7618]

RJ and Rivian better hurry up with R2. RJ is way too slow

[@jonbradshaw4517]

The new Scout fuckin blows how they hell the new Bronco looks like a better version of the Scout than this lame design we're being given

[@tomasrapkauskas]

Rivian is dead, nothing to comment.

[@DavidElCid300]

In what universe are you living? In my universe Rivian is very much alive.

[@hdang75]

He is from the future 2028 😂