Robotaxis | Big Ideas 2024

Thanks to breakthroughs in AI, robotaxis are beginning to revolutionize urban travel and could accelerate the unraveling of the auto loan sector. According to ARK’s research, robotaxi platforms could redefine personal mobility and generate $28 trillion in enterprise value during the next five to ten years.
A tradition since 2017, “Big Ideas” is ARK’s seminal document, offering a comprehensive analysis of technological convergence and its potential to revolutionize industries and economies at a global scale. At the heart of this report lies thorough research, meticulously conducted by ARK's investment team.
Download Big Ideas 2024 Report: ark-invest.com/big-ideas-2024/
Disclosure: www.ark-invest.com/terms

[@aurora_occidentalis2248]

I use FSD every day. Interventionless commutes are becoming routine. Bonus points: I applied white duct tape to my garage floor and now my Model 3 recognizes it as a parking spot and autoparks.

[@thefish5861]

That’s a nifty idea.

[@urgetodrive]

Except those days an intervention was required could have seriously injured or killed you. You don't respawn, it's not GTA brochacho.

[@hunternewberry5860]

​​@@urgetodrive zoom out, look at the trend. 2 years ago FSD was unuseable.... now its so good I can uber people around and they have no idea the car is doing 100% of the driving. This is going to save millions of lives. 1 million people die on roads every year

[@sageakporherhe783]

smart

[@elkabong5547]

I am shorting the beaded driver seat cover manufacturers!

[@emouselOregon]

😂

[@markplott4820]

RIP conventional ICE cabs........lol.

[@jeannepv9712]

Bold call! 😅

[@borishahaha]

I agree, but I believe the most significant impact will be on real estate. As autonomous vehicles become prevalent, people will have the option to live farther from city centers, potentially reducing demand for inner-city properties. If employees only need to commute to the office once or twice a week, spending an hour each way in a self-driving car while working or relaxing becomes much more feasible. This shift could reshape urban and suburban landscapes, altering property values and community structures.

[@ShadeDraws]

EXACTLY. Very smart guy. Cities will flatten out as the need to be close to urban centers will vastly decrease.

[@Jayla-dj2gj]

But the city mentality and their politics need to stay out of small towns and suburbs. They created those godless cities and need to stay there.

[@ShadeDraws]

Agreed. ​@@Jayla-dj2gj

[@joeschnur4632]

Office based work will continue to decline and remote based technologies make people more efficient and allows work/life flexibility. Once you enjoy a remote work environment, it's really tough to go back in the office. That's even less need for cars.

[@NewCastleIndiana]

Yeah, I think we could do fully solar super low speed always moving around never needing a fix point on earth domicile. Seeing the world within your lifetime, not having to commute from point to point as long as governments are willing to change the way we manage people in borders. Which I believe they will not be.

[@paulrybarczyk5013]

TLSA may be down today, but it's gonna go up WAYMO! 🙂

[@TheRockHardKeg]

DAD! GET OFF KZbin! 🤣

[@peterjohn5834]

Stunning work and presentation. Thanks

[@edwijaranakulaph.d.2010]

The pipe dream is that there will be robotaxis all over the place. The reality is the number of streets are limited in major cities around the world, forcing the cities to regulate the number of robotaxis they will allow. It’s to avoid total congestion ! 😊😊😊

[@markplott4820]

UNDERGROUND boring LOOP tunnels.

[@charliedoyle7824]

That's nonsense. Of course the "number of streets are limited". No shit. Cities won't have much say in how many robotaxis can operate; the states do the driving regulation. The only thing that will stop robotaxis from prolifierating is if they crash too much.

[@johnanon658]

The pipe dream is that in 5 yes no one will just keep driving the cars they already own, and 28 trillion will go to taxis. 😅 I mean i hold hundreds of shares, inwant to believe, but c’mon.

[@markplott4820]

@@johnanon658 - not when RIDES are essentially FREE, and dont have to pay for INS, Taxes , Charging.

[@sooniekchoi8398]

Thank you always ❤

[@gybob100]

Correction: Tesla IR marketing team

[@glennbeattie6172]

I have lots of Aark eft. The thumbnail is hilarious. If you gave her a white cat to hold. Can you say supervillian.

[@andibunari1996]

That's crazy! $0.24 Citi-bike charges for e-Bikes in NYC!

[@markplott4820]

E-bikes will become FREE to Borrow , but YOU wont own it.

[@naveennandigum8630]

Wait they charge .24 per trip? I thought it’s something like $99 for the year or $15 for the day

[@MotoGuzziMoto]

What data are you using for FSD? There is no unmanned FSD in use currently, it is always with a person overseeing it. Are you saying there is an average of 3200 miles between interventions (that would have been an accident) or 3200 miles between accidents while a person + FSD is driving?

[@TastyPlacementSEO]

TASHA!!! I would like to pre-thank you for helping to make me wealthy. This thorough and well-reasoned analysis is completely part of my investment thesis at this point.

[@damienmorgan525]

Airlines and hotels in the middle of nowhere are done. Any flight route under 750 miles will be gone. Any hotel not in a city or at a tourist attraction will die

[@markplott4820]

Cities & Towns connected by 100% underground Boring LOOP tunnels. & allow FAST Autonomous travel up to 200+ mph.

[@nixieandyakyak3837]

I agree with your assessments. I use fsd in my Tesla Y all the time and it is so close to perfection. It will be there very soon.

[@harrychu650]

I just did a 1,700 mi road trip that won't have been possible without FSD.

[@heisferdy]

Interesting.. Why wouldn't have it been possible?

[@jrsands]

I’ve driven to Florida from Los Angeles multiple times. That’s well over 2000 miles. I wish I had FSD then. I can’t wait to drive cross country with FSD!

[@harrychu650]

@@heisferdy on one leg of the road trip I did 800 mi over a 16 hour stretch with four super charger stops. FSD significantly reduces fatigue and I could not of safely handled that drive without it.

[@huhwhatyousay2652]

Long trip!

[@Destorrrrr]

Cruise control has existed for a long time bud

[@yingle6027]

In the future there will be autonomous Turtles that transport Temu products to Alien civilisations in the Atlantic ocean. No cap.

[@mfpears]

I actually think the initial pricing of robotaxi will be fairly low, because the gap between what it's worth to people and what they're paying for it will feed positive sentiment, which will be important as it helps pave the way for approval. In this case, demand will be very high, so it makes sense to go city by city to avoid long wait times. It will make a big splash and make big news every time it enters a new market and then people in other cities will be wanting it. And for the jobs it displaces, rather than being death by a thousand paper cuts, it will all happen at once in the environment of general public positive sentiment. It also reduces the risk of legislation being made at a large scale against it.

[@CyberTankMan]

👍

[@NathanielRises606]

It dropped today, what an incredible gift. Y’all will look back in 10 years and it will all feel like it was inevitable.

[@capomax69]

The ring

[@trevor6607]

Great analysis! Thank you guys

[@a.v.gavrilov]

👏👏👏 Brilliant! Thank you for your work. Tony Seba was absolutely right - it will destroy current state of transportation industry.

[@Ronnieleec]

i look forward to level 4 fsd, but i will keep my own vehicle. i can’t wait for robotaxi in the UK, as a USA driver.

[@matthewmann86]

Weird to drop this today

[@orion789]

Lol..... stock drops after a run up, drop a promo?

[@geoffreymak000]

They need to pump

[@rhuisjes02]

Y Good presentation skills Tasha

[@ericliu2628]

Great informative video! Are these ride share costs based on US only or Worldwide? As rides in some countries like China are cheaper.

[@barbarjinx3802]

Perfect timing of the rumors are true today.

[@johnanon658]

Yo, 28 TRILLION, w a T??? Lady, in 2030, most people will still own cars they will still be driving, Most families spend between $200 and $0 a year. This model is pure insanity.

[@aceyage]

They’re just grifters at this point. Sociopathic con-men looking for morons to invest.

[@cking5630]

Tasha i Love You 😀

[@zyme5998]

At first glace at the title I thought it was going to be about TAXing ROBOTS, which might be an even bigger and better idea....

[@peterchoi5931]

thumbnail looked like she's an AI Robot ngl

[@jonhoward4884]

"Data is really king OR queen here". Thank goodness she phrased it like that. I would have been exceptionally offended and needed a safe space if she only mentioned "king".

[@brentmsdn]

Tremendous respect for ARK team. I think they are the only ones with any grasp of the potential here.

[@matthewhintz6404]

An investment in ARK is now worth less than in 2019. Meanwhile over those same last 5 years the S&P500 is up over 45% lol

[@jpdepalma]

I believe this is the future, but I have one concern. How to stop nuisance passengers from grabbing the steering wheel?

[@jasonk125]

Love the Issey Miyake dress, Tasha! btw, Tesla just pushed their unveil back to October.

[@bigdream_dreambig]

No, Tesla hasn't pushed back their unveiling. There was an independent report that Tesla will delay revealing one or more prototypes. If true -- which it may not be -- this may or may not cause Tesla to delay their August event or to show less at the August event than they'd originally planned.

[@jasonk125]

@@bigdream_dreambig Tesla is delaying the launch of robotaxi by about two months to October as the design team was told to rework some elements of the car, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the decision. - Reuters

[@passdasalt]

What's to become of public transport? Will fewer people take a train or bus and instead opt for a robotaxi? Imagine the added congestion on the roads.

[@RichardRuddell]

Great content and delivery. A bonus for everyone to have ARK doing the heavy lifting on the research front. Keep it up 👏👏👏

[@rctezluh42069]

so many lives are going to be saved, upvoted!!

[@johnw1078]

Max Headroom FTW

[@d_e_a_n]

IS AUG 8, robotaxi unveiling, delayed ??

[@bigdream_dreambig]

Assuming you mean Tesla's event: no, although there's speculation that it might be. There was an independent report that Tesla will delay revealing one or more prototypes. If true (which it may not be), this may or may not cause Tesla to delay their August event or to show less at that event than they'd originally planned. But there has been no new news directly from Tesla or Elon Musk as of yet.

[@nightshadowblade]

Pretty accurate for the most part, I'd say, my calculations for the Tesla Robotaxi make it profitable even at a price of only 20 Cents/mile though. Should be roughly 5k a year after expenses in about 10-15 years from now. Only the first 3-5 years will be massively profitable because of lack of competition.

[@bernardchoi2918]

Hopefully you are right 🙏

[@nixinkome]

Can ARK Invest do a study on redundant parking lots?

[@markplott4820]

what Parking lot ? those will become HI-rise condos & Apartment. and they will be FREE.

[@jmbelarmin]

Tasha, do you think Tesla needs to release FSD (supervised) for free to their entire install base in order to accelerate the AI training even faster? I think Tesla's strategy should be - if customers are willing to participate in training FSD AI, they should capitalize on this opportunity by offering it free to everyone and that the real monetization should be on driverless or FSD (Unsupervised) - like you say for Robotaxis - or even as far as offering it for driverless commercial transport (like driverless semi-trucks).

[@leiflarsson9637]

In what cities in US are Tesla Robotaxis working today?

[@TC.C]

Love Ark Invest!

[@howtoactuallyinvest]

I'm on the same page but let's be real about the FSD data saying it's safer than human drivers. This is only because you have to pay such close attention to it at all times. I say this as an investor and frequent user of FSD

[@paulp3992]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="38">0:38</a> In 2017 a similar graphics about robo taxis coming in 2025.

[@donwunder33]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="234">3:54</a>. Emissions contribute to 10,000 deaths per year in the US? I'm all in on EVs, but as this stat is being used as an argument in favor of increasing rate of EV adoption, can you provide a link to data that supports this claim? Thanks!

[@Gillecriosd]

You, Miss … are a rock star. You are the other reason I value Cathy Wood’s ARK. Amazing work. Keep it up. So impressive. Tesla is the future. And I believe this is a good thing for more than just ROI. Thank you and ARK for the work you do. Superb

[@AlexBravo]

43,000 miles, not 43 miles

[@markplott4820]

43, million miles.

[@Subranis]

came to the comments looking for this lol

[@hasslefree3527]

driving is not entirely about cost and safety, but also convenience and status

[@TN-jb4jk]

That was the horse. And see what happened.

[@MR-qe9ve]

Incidentally Elon came out and delayed the Robotaxi unveiling till October... tanked the stock. Why put these deadlines that you know might not actually happen... wrecked a few folks.

[@Tjmalloy2]

Anyone that gets wreaked new the risk. Also elon delays things all the time, should of knew this was possibility

[@Christian-fx9ur]

Elon is a hype machine. He's human cotton candy. I used to be a huge fan and believed in what he was trying to do. Turns out he's not what I thought. He's self-serving and is only interested in being seen as the world's most important human. I don't trust any data coming from Tesla. They twist it and flat out lie. Tesla stock will be under $20/share probably within the next two to three years.

[@joeschnur4632]

this stuff is harder than even Elon thinks. The first mover mote will be wide. In 5 years, no one will buy a car without full self driving capability. Ford and GM will be forced to buy the tech, increasing their costs and increasing profits for the first mover. This is a huge investment opportunity.

[@tomh1727]

Where did they even get this from? cant find any source from tesla or elon to confirm this

[@justme7995]

@@tomh1727 Doomberg put it out

[@d.r.656]

ARKK to take the relay for 8/8 🤣😂🤣

[@ByronBennett]

I'm a bull on Robotaxi and TSLA, but I see it a little differently (but I'm just a dude playing a dude who nobody knows, and not an ARK analyst) 1. The overall effect of Robotaxis should be lower the Total GDP attributed to Transportation 2. This differs from iPhone and Computers which created new "human Activities". People are not suddenly going to want to start taking taxis all over creation just because they are Cheap While I am a dreamer and fully believe the Joy is in the Journey, most people aren't interested in riding around for the sake of riding around. People aren't suddenly going to want to spend all their time riding around in taxis. They have places to be and once they are there, they're happy. Robotaxis will Replace current transportation, not create some new NEED (as opposed to the iPhone which created many new NEEDS). Even if it DOUBLES demand for Transportation, you don't get to $27T in corporate value (unless that is a cumulative number over many years, but certainly not by 2030). That's like every single penny in US GDP turning into a transportation related product.

[@EvilTigerPaw]

mostly agree. not necessarily new needs, but new WANTS. e.g. if you make cookies in your house, you can now have ur own car in your garage do auto-deliveries in your neighbourhood. You could have like autonomous "stores" that come to your house. I remember when i was a kid in Dubai, we used to have bakery vans drive by with fresh bread similar to an ice cream truck. there is possibly new use-cases that we're not used to seeing. but i agree that any given human would not be interested in being in the car more than they already do.

[@ByronBennett]

@@EvilTigerPaw good points. Definitely bigger opportunities for autonomously moving stuff. A lot of that wouldn’t need a full sized robotaxi. Smaller, more purpose built autonomous vehicles may be more common on the roads than people movers.

[@user-rx9rh1mq4o]

I can just watch a video of talking about anything..she is so pretty and smart

[@NoSirAnder19]

If you like robot looking female. And thats ok.

[@markplott4820]

FACTS spoken in this video.

[@johnanon658]

28 TRILLION? Really? She said Trillion, w a T 😅 Thats like what, 100% of the GDP??

[@geoffgeoff3333]

​@johnanon658 Tell everyone that you've never seen the historical World GDP chart without saying that! DYODD doesn't mean fall asleep and wake-up thinking ya know anything!

[@EinzigfreierName]

Claims and assumptions are not facts. What's wrong with people nowadays that they cant't see the difference any more?

[@aceyage]

Zero facts were spoken. These people look for idiots to invest money. Wealth transfer from idiots to sociopathic con-men.

[@robdogsurf]

This may turn into a commodity like buying paper at staples. With this many competitors the price will drop the margins will compress. Yikes

[@revson11]

So, robotaxi will be bigger than the US GDP by 2030? Does ARK have a stake in this industry?

[@ln5536]

🙏😊

[@odoacredacalcutta5085]

but the point is not that autonomated cars would kill less than human driven cars... the point is that if they do (and will still do), who's gonna take responsibility over it ? the company that produces them or those who own them ? If it's the company, they will be too expensive to be sellable, if it's the owner..... well, who would ever chose to own them ?

[@otto2468]

Tesla will NEVER use full self-drive. It will ALWAYS be called Supervised Full self-drive. Facts

[@roger_is_red]

the 1st to FSD will be Tesla and that is a GAME changer

[@TeslaEVolution]

$1.5 TRILLION ICE loans in the USA?!!?!?

[@Fordtruck4sale]

2022 called, they want their analysis back.

[@projectcontractors]

The world's not transitioning away from cars, it's transitioning to electric cars, where everyone will have 3 or 4.

[@markplott4820]

NOPE , cars sales will go to ZERO in Robotaxi model.

[@Subranis]

absolutely not true. you will own nothing and you will be happy.

[@aceyage]

Most people can’t afford one car, let alone 3-4. Delusional. Public transport is the future.

[@user-cq5tl5nq2m]

"We believe ...." is a non-starter. Groups of individuals, like corporations, don't believe anything, individuals do.

[@DargoLives]

This is tech that's got to be PERFECT. I have a nice proven MacBook...and it makes mistakes sometimes...and it's proven tech over many years. How do we know they can get to Level 5? Elon recently bragged that it will get down to 1 intervention per year. That's not good enough. I'm banking my retirement on this.

[@daneomegan]

How am i going to insure my new robo taxi? Asking for a friend...

[@bodyguardik]

<a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="170">2:50</a> who are the judges?

[@_arshadm]

AI has always had a long tail problem, that's why we have had so many AI summers and winters. Everytime we make a breakthrough people project out and imagine the problem is solved, but the horizon just moves further out. Self driving as well as AGI is a very difficult problem in such a complex environment, self driving is even more complex than AGI because it has safety critical aspects. So it just needs a few cars to kill or injure a few people for the whole industry to sour for 5 years. This investment has got to be a meme or have a risk profile like bitcoin.

[@DiacoNori]

Insider traders pumping this shit lul

[@naveennandigum8630]

Hope normal human civilization makes it a little past 2030. The way fossil fuels, animal agriculture is expanding still means a less stable climate with a more troubled economy.

[@frankcoffey]

So pre planned point to point trips are all that cars are used for? I don't think so. Taxis with or without a driver are already available and is a known and finite market. There are no trillions to be had and robo taxies won't even pay back the amount of investment already spent. It's just public transportation and we already know how popular that is.

[@GreenisYellow]

Tasha ❤

[@balaji-kartha]

On the dot! You are hitting the nail on the head, and since it is still not penetrating the heads of the Wall Street analysts or the legacy automakers, we still have time to get in and build a stockpile (pun not intended!) and wait for the tide to hit the roof !! 🤷‍♂

[@user-hv5pc2by2c]

Who da fook was dat guy

[@brianmoran1196]

If this is true, the whole public transport system will become obsolete.

[@chrono9428]

Thanks, Tasha for the informative session. By the way, you looked tired. Go home early and have a good rest over the weekend.

[@AZ-fz5xc]

Would not self driving cars cause traffic congestion? If everyone wants to let their cars go out there to make money for them

[@bigdream_dreambig]

Yes, which is another reason Musk believes underground freeways will be necessary in urban areas. The good news is, there will be less need for parking, so many parking garages will be replaced/converted to other uses.

[@MW-cs8zd]

Blink twice if you're being held hostage

[@jimmieyoung4865]

People losing their jobs to Ai makes ARK absolutely giddy.

[@rj8u]

We believe 🫣💩 We believe 💩🫣 We believe 🙈💩

[@rajaradhakrisnan4015]

Love your natural look. No heavy makeup

[@notsecure]

lol, I bet you don't like K-POP singers.

[@adamsupczynski5839]

Yeah, Tasha looked nice too

[@ShadeDraws]

Who cares what she looks like?

[@sustainablesatoshis]

Wow what a progressive comment, you’ve really added to what she has to say. We are all pleased that you approve of how this intelligent and confident woman looks. Congratulations.

[@rajaradhakrisnan4015]

@@ShadeDrawsscrew you. I got my citizenship and freedom of speech

[@jesssantiago1]

The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is down 6% over the past 5 years while the S&P500 is UP 86.16% and the Nasdaq is UP 123% over the same 5 year period. Cathie Wood has FAILED big time! ARK Invest has destroyed 14 billion dollars of wealth over the past decade based on a report by Morningstar!

[@CarCosmeticsChannel]

Robotaxi will be massive! Majority of people will not own a car and just use robotaxi.

[@belgiumhr3524]

false

[@d.r.656]

Hello there Tintin, Just a reminder that: If your false is true then true is false, then we live in an world of opposites so you really just said True. Which I must agree with.

[@spacesbali]

Global GDP is 100T. Ride hail TAM is 11T. How does transport ride hail possibly reach 11% of global GDP. Unless the TAM is not actually possible

[@i6power30]

We believe ... We expect... based on what? Do you have AI experts in your team to even make such speculation? Anyone can make such claims. This is nothing more than speculation. I've been working in AI industry for 25 years, and this iteration of hype is nothing special. There is no theoretical breakthrough, but just advances in hardware makes brute force machine learning possible. But it's not even close to full autonomy and won't be for at least 10 - 20 years unless there is suddenly a theoretical breakthrough from the traditional neural net models. We will likely see another AI winter before the real breakthrough.

[@GM4ThePeople]

She gon' robotaxi the mofoing hobbits to Isengard o/

[@joeschnur4632]

Imagine telling someone to hold their hand up and flag a taxi - they will look at you crazy and schedule an Uber on their phone. In 15 years, if you tell someone to buy a car for personal transport - they will look at you crazy as their AI scheduled antonymous car picks them up.

[@markplott4820]

NURALINK Robotaxi hail.

[@irbose9895]

What clown really thinks robotaxis will work in october lmao 😆

[@DxModel219]

stop giving yourself a thumbs up 👎

[@rctezluh42069]

google the amount of car deaths each day worldwide and re-think your comment

[@opencase9903]

Tasha is fine fine fine

[@qkktech]

$0.25 per mile is a bit too low and not happen . $0.5 is realistic and that is usage of 2-3h day mostly rushours my model is based real service data of similar services Bolt drive and Citybee in Tallinn area. Those cars ride quite rushhours only. Those ICE cars are 2x lower the price of model 3 + FSD and capital cost is the key. When I see non FSD rental car every morning in 1 minute walk then point of having FSD is not so big anymore. Currently in Tallinn area those rides are more than 10 % and the fleet is 5% of total passanger car fleet. That means at my area every house has 1-3 cars and in average when you look at the street then 5-6 house away is rental car 7am but now is 10am and car is3minute away next is 10.

[@user-ei3cp5nx9f]

I'm curious about the poor performance of all the funds managed by Ark Invest. I'm wondering, why don't we just invest in Tesla instead? Will investing in Ark's ETFs actually generate higher returns in the future?

[@BoeyChar]

Its getting more and more obvious by the day.

[@martynhaggerty2294]

So what's new here ? All self evident.

[@varj12]

nothing new said

[@aleydrus8067]

I predict that Tesla will lose its edge on robo taxis within 5 years of its release if it ever does succeed in getting the lead.

[@cookitketo3592]

.25c/mile off the bat?? What idiot is gonna ruin their vehicle for Pennie’s?

[@3triska3]

$3000-$4000/ month are Pennie's? You can write it off and in a year the car will pay for itself. Model 3 Long Range for example... Theoretically

[@ByronBennett]

@@3triska3 At $0.25 per mile, $3000 would be 12,000 miles per month. It seems unlikely there will be that much demand for cookitketo's car.

[@3triska3]

@@ByronBennett that is like 70% of the day riding thru the city. If people living outside of thr cities will use it - can add up pretty fast. But even when you cut it in half - still good. It's a write off, free transport and part time job for you.

[@markplott4820]

TESLA model is only $0.15c/ mile.

[@LZentertainments]

Tasha, you need glasses, so that you don't squint to read the teleprompter