The Battle for Ukraine & Prospects for World War III | Peter Zeihan

In Episode 239 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Peter Zeihan geopolitical strategist and author of the soon-to-be-released book “The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization.”
Demetri asked Zeihan back on the podcast in order to get his perspective on the very serious situation that is unfolding in Ukraine and Eastern Europe at the moment. We discuss the European security theatre, US-Russia relations, the risks of military confrontation with NATO, nuclear escalation, and knock-on effects to global energy markets and food systems. We also speculate on China’s involvement in the diplomatic efforts over Ukraine, the implications for Taiwan, the US Dollar system, and so much more.
Our objective in bringing you this conversation is to situate the war in Ukraine within this larger geopolitical framework, so that when you see things like Saudi Arabia engaging in talks with China to price some of its oil sales in Renminbi or Egyptian bonds selling off over concerns about wheat shortages and rising prices you are able to put it all in context.
The full episode, transcript, and intelligence report to this week’s conversation can be accessed by going directly to the episode page at hiddenforces.io/podcasts/pete... and clicking on "premium extras." All subscribers gain access to our premium feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.
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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas
Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou
Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas
Episode Recorded on 03/17/2022

[@tommyt1785]

Me: Damn the world is really going to sh*t. Peter: Oh no it's worse than that.

[@George-vf7ss]

😆

[@mrgyani]

😂

[@fushey]

LOL

[@bankotsu2a]

He does open some of his presentations with "I give you the end of the world" lol

[@garretttedeman]

You know, this has been a key element of many/most accurately informative strategic stuff over the past several years at least. ...Almost as if, since the true crappiness of the circumstances are almost impossible to imagine, we just can't *prevent* it from happening in the first place. It's really very sobering and (in my view), pretty tough to take. ...But we have to find a way, or have to develop the discipline to fact these issues.

[@MyMomSaysImKeen]

I'm a Russian citizen on vacation in Ukraine and I genuinely had no idea this was occurring. Thankfully I drove here in a T-72 with an AK and a few extra pairs of green fatigues

[@eliterun6214]

and a few thousand buddies?

[@brisingr12]

Hope you're getting some warm hospitality out there

[@EnteiIsDoge]

Oh man what a roadtrip!

[@hansandersen5741]

Did you remember to bring sunflower seeds?

[@JR99yes]

Should've included a headstone.

[@ioda006]

This interviewer is great. All the questions I had, he asked. Subscribing

[@karlnordenstorm8816]

Starts 2:17

[@ioda006]

GREAT question about the "gateway territories" and current situation vs Russia right before. Cheers to Demetri!

[@Captain_Jack711]

Excellent interview

[@fushey]

This episode made me buy and thank god for, overtime

[@liberalmatt]

Very interesting just how time-sensitive and fluid these events are, given the quoted glacial nature of geopol/IR, especially once momentum starts gaining traction among allies previously regarded to be splintered and not cohesive. "When Ukraine falls" and 38:00 "when Odessa falls": Zeihan's renowned Realist fatalism appears to be - thankfully - a little wide of the mark as at time of writing (mid-May 2022). Other than that, very prescient analysis with a well-informed interviewer allowing Zeihan to expand. Subscribed!

[@bighands69]

Geopolitics conditions are like snow building on a mountain it can take a whole season to build and 80 seconds to destroy a whole town and kill hundreds.

[@marko-pavlovic]

To say that Ukraine will fall is a bit arrogant. Ukraine is huge and fighting back. Even if Kyiv falls, it does not mean that Ukraine has fallen. In the 1990s, Croatia fought for independence and won the war against the Yugoslav Army (read Serbian), which at its peak was one of Europe's most powerful armies. And that was during the time when the embargo on arms imports was in force. Now NATO and neighboring countries are openly helping to arm Ukraine with all kinds of weapons. For comparison - around 4M people lives in Croatia and 44M lives in Ukrain. Kyiv itself is a city of 3 million people. Do you know what it means to conquer and control such a city let alone the whole country?

[@philip48230]

The whole conversation is one of the better ones … but overall it’s scarier than the 1960’s Cold War

[@simonreeves2017]

Hi, greetings from the U.K. This popped into my feed today- 1 Jan 2024. Absolutely fascinating to hear this nearly two years later.

[@fushey]

This is going to be amazing

[@qlee50]

I recall a Russian FSB comment “russian mobs are just another department of the FSB”, perhaps the relationship is more transactional than initially assessed.

[@danbuckles2745]

Turning the cites to rabble creates great places to counterattack the offensive positions.

[@VeronikaJelencsrecnozivljenje]

That is some insight. Thank you.

[@Zoofactory]

Just finishing my copy of DisUnited Nations. Read it. It is profound and likely important to you and your future decision making.

[@thepianoroommusic]

I like going back and listening to these videos on geopolitics from the experts see how much they got right a year later. Seems Ian Bremmer has been the most spot on.

[@DeborahRosen99]

Russia has forgotten one key lesson from its own history: Stalingrad. When the Nazis advanced on Stalingrad, they encountered a Russian resistance similar to what Ukraine is giving Russia today - soldiers and civilians alike, grimly determined not to yield the city, and so the Nazis started shelling it to rubble. When they resumed the advance, they found that they could no longer push into the city's remains by tank or truck, because their campaign of reducing the city to rubble had been a little too efficient and their own vehicles couldn't get through, so they had to go in on foot. And that is when Stalin gave the order, "Not one step back!" which, according to the wisdom of Sun Tzu, makes perfect sense in that moment: in encircled ground, devise strategems, but in death ground, fight. It cost Russia more than a million dead to hold that city, but hold it they did and the Nazi offensive stalled, and then fell apart as winter came. Ukraine, soldier and civilian alike, have shown that same dedication and determination. There are a whole lot more of them than there were Russian inhabitants of Stalingrad. And they are much better armed. Even should the worst case happen and Russia go through Ukraine, annex Transnistria... they still have those land gaps to plug with Poland and Lithuania, and there is no choice but to start a war with NATO to manage that. That automatically brings in Romania and Finland (most likely, should their plans to join NATO go through this summer), which more than doubles the land border that Russia would have to defend, having already been weakened dramatically by Ukraine's valiant resistance. Romania's army I'm not sure about, but they've got the Carpathian Mountains as a stronghold and no commander in their right mind wants to take an army into that tangle - the terrain is as bad as Afghanistan, and a determined resistance holed up in those mountains can shatter armies. They've done if before. Finland, on the other hand, is more ready for Russia than Ukraine was and, mild as they are in ordinary course, they've not forgotten the insult of having to cede territory following the Winter Wars. If the world has to rely on any two countries to fall back on should the shield that is Ukraine fail, FInland and Romania are not bad options to start with. Poland can't be discounted either: they have a long history with Russia and some scores to settle that will motivate the hell out of them, as if protecting their country from direct assault isn't going to be enough. They're hearing the stories of Ukrainians being kidnapped and bused into Russia, ending up in Siberian gulags and "re-education camps" - well, they've got some reminders on their own soil of what happened the last time an invader rampaged through Europe and did that. As the primary corridor through which NATO arms and international aid to Ukraine are currently running, those supply lines are already in place. Ultimately, this is a foolish and tragic move on Russia's part - if they were to have any hope of recovering from their generational losses, sending a generation of boys to die in Ukraine and/or the NATO nations was never going to assist that.

[@XanderCB]

I really hope it doesn't come to what you wrote because Romania's army, while having some recent military conflict experience, is not what it should be. Poland's army is 10x better while the country is only double the size.

[@monmalin]

Have you considered that Russia is actually fighting NATO in Ukraine. Before Russia fails it will give nuclear weapons to all it's allies and we will witness a show of mushroom clouds in Europe and US Do not forget that Russia has natural allies.

[@dkoz8321]

Russia has not forgotten. They just effed up on splitting sides. In Ukraine, they are the Germans, and Ukranians are 'Soviet Allies' of USA and UK. German in WWII during early Barbarossa, were some lof the most competent and cohesive combat units on Earth. Here we see a Russian Army unable to conduct massed broad front combined arms operations. Oddly the worse the Russians are, the higher the chances of nukes in play.

[@Archonsx]

Romania has been in NATO since 2004, i think you meant finland and sweden

[@DeborahRosen99]

No, but it missed a comma that probably would have clarified my thought. I am well aware that Romania is NATO. Any aggression towards NATO would mean Romania gets involved with the response - and with Finland expected to start the process of joining NATO this week, they would join the response as a NATO nation as soon as they are legally able to as well.

[@davethusberg8954]

This was informative and thought provoking on a completely different scale. Thank you.

[@rodneycaupp5962]

Well, one comment in all this that was false. We DID NOT elect Bi-Dem. He was selected by the American Communist government ... Ala T Rump. Rump just walked away.... from what I watched closely and saw.

[@BanryuTV]

Good to see there are intelligent people left in this world.

[@mrniceguy7168]

Peter’s analysis is quickly becoming the consensus tbh

[@WeknowhoUR]

Unfortunately it is the Globalist, Georgia Bush the 1st, pathetic post modernist view.

[@TheOis1984]

if Russia finally can subdue Ukraine, does it have enough resources and manpower to continue the conflict with NATO countries? I don't think it has anything to spare to go beyond Ukraine, as their military and economy would have been spent at that point

[@JinKee]

Peter Zeihan’s video “the russian grab” is all about how the Russians must take the mountains in west ukraine because the flat territory mentioned at 4:10 of this very video are the only places that Russia’s thin population can plug the nine gateways to the russian steppe. Russia doesn’t have the manpower to defend itself let alone invate NATO

[@michaelfried3123]

It would now be a perfect time for NATO to get involved and put up a no fly zone, and start splashing Migs right and left because Russia could literally do nothing about it and don't say launch nukes because they ain't doing that over some Migs.

[@taraswertelecki3786]

They will NEVER hold Ukraine, they will have a guerilla war Ukrainians will bring to the streets of Russia as they bleed Russia's army occupying the country.

[@georgesmith113]

He just said they will turn to Nukes to go against NATO We just as well beat their butts in Ukraine It’s going nuclear ether way

[@silentbob5566]

Don't overdo it. Corrected projections for Russia's loss of GDP this year is only 10% instead of expected 30%. They've lost a few dozen thousand of soldiers. They did not do universal draft and mobilization, did not form three strategic echelons per their doctrine, did not do any serious planning and preparation. They thought it would have been milk run, but that's just a single misstep. It doesn't have to form regular pattern.

[@davidgeiszler4764]

Brilliant 👏

[@TooBadToBeAway1]

Interviewer likes to hear himself speak. Zeihan is great.

[@ivangalik7848]

perfect

[@c.p.1090]

Could you do a serious on the book 📕 THE FIAT STANDARD.

[@mrgyani]

Oh great, second half of the interview is under content lock.

[@tommyodonovan3883]

It's worth the money.

[@katerynanovodvorska1721]

Hearing that being Ukrainian is devastating

[@sebastianmuller4649]

Begins at 2:16

[@mossberg0]

Sadly, Peter's understanding of history is rather superficial. The interviewer was actually showing himself to be better informed about the realities in Europe and following a more logical line of thinking. Peter tended to resort to old talking points when it came to specifics.

[@axmw2781]

2:34 for peter

[@maryanncrody4867]

You bet it felt like the cmc I was 6 ptsd

[@kwakaman555]

Insightful commentary on a tense, new era where the global gloves are coming off.

[@cooldudecs]

United States had both gloves

[@calixtomuni9780]

Do the Russians view the Dnieper River a significant geographical barrier ? Rather like the French view the Rhine??

[@TheRobsterUK]

Even before we knew Ukraine could successfully fight the Russians and were expected to lose the war in days / weeks, the idea that Russia's next phase was to declare war on NATO and attack Poland / Lithuania / Estonia still seems far fetched. Putin (or at least his generals) must know that conventionally they don't stand a chance against NATO and that the only way to inflict significant damage is to use nukes, but then that almost certainly would result in like-for-like retaliation and all-out WW3. So invading NATO countries basically spells either massive conventional defeat and humiliation, or the end of the world as we know it. There's no out come where the Russians "win" against NATO and they must know this. I also think it's telling that Russia haven't attacked or even attempted to attack supplies going into Ukraine whilst they are still in NATO countries. If they really did plan to attack Poland next then why not undertake limited attacks now in order to stop the flow of weapons? Rather, it appears the Russians are doing everything possible to NOT provoke / attack NATO which goes against the theory that invading NATO countries was next on the agenda.

[@augustuslxiii]

Exactly what I've been saying. It's absurd to imagine Russia stepping foot in NATO territory.

[@bighands69]

@@augustuslxiii It is absurd if what we are seeing is the complete capabilities of the Russian military. This is not the first time this has gone like this for Russia in a war. Their sheer numbers approach always adds a corrective direction for them. The question is will the fact that this is a proxy war make the outcome different?

[@carlfrye1566]

Well with Biden in office Ukraine as a working country lies in ruin, death, destruction, economic collapse, refugees to the EU. All Trump did was deliver PEACE IN UKRAINE FOR 4 YEARS.

[@rodneycaupp5962]

Ukraine was dead on entry, had JEWISH COMMUNISM in UHmericUH not sent stolen money, Tanks, Missiles, and so much more to NAZI Ukraine. The American People could give a rats ass about Ukraine

[@davidprice7641]

Today July 20 23 Ukraine finally before their advance we have been waiting for for many many months in 3 weeks Russia has taken about 1500 casualties and around $200 dead while Ukraine has had 25,000 killed and 25,000 wounded in 3 weeks this is terrible this needs to stop Biden started this war the blood is on his hands the leftist progressive globalist blood is on your hands

[@danstevens64]

Video starts @2:18

[@Indrid__Cold]

Lest drop thr big one, and see what happens!

[@Cotictimmy]

Thoughtful analysis that you can't find on the 'Mainstream' Tower of Babel.

[@oldsalt8011]

Ok, weeks later now and we are waiting for part 2 of this talk.

[@Annou7la]

So you mean more astrology? This is two weeks ago: “if Ukraine falls, and it will fall”. Yesterday: “Putin retreats from all north and west Ukraine and says they will focus on Donbas”.

[@vibratoryuniverse308]

@@Annou7la What is your point, John. Wars can take decades. It has been months. Sit tight bucko.

[@Pax2023]

Zeihan may be right about Russian motives for going into Ukraine. But he'd wrong about the eastern provinces. If you watch the ten part series called Roses Have Thorns, you'll see that the Donbas region was always Russian identified and Russian language speakers. When the Kiev government was taken over by the hard line nationalists, they declared Ukrainian as the official language, the Donbas held a referendum asking for autonomy, but within the state framework of Ukraine. The Kiev government responded by declaring them terrorists and attacked the region. The resulting civil war killed 14,000 people, mostly civilians. After that carnage, the Donbas was never going to fully return to the Kiev administration. The film referenced above is mostly from Ukrainian footage.

[@telluwide5553]

PZ stars at 02:23

[@h-minus2212]

Years ago, I read an article by Michael E. O'Hanlon, wherein he stated that the Russian military was suspect in its mobility and sustainment operations. He even suggested that Russian advances could be significantly slowed by waterways, despite their sizeable bridging equipment. I was shocked that Putin invaded, given the difficulty in administering such a large country, as well as the chance of galvanizing the Western world. What a miscalculation.

[@chrishooge3442]

This is the culmination of a colossal Russian Intelligence failure. There is no excuse for missing the Ukrainian preparedness and willingness to resist. All the bad planning results from that Intel failure. They probably didn't think they needed that bridging equipment brought forward. Thus, they got blocked, columns became immobile and vulnerable to direct and indirect ambushes.

[@h-minus2212]

@@chrishooge3442 I absolutely agree. What I would give to be a fly on the wall when the decision to invade was made. The trouble for Russia and China is that the US military makes the toppling of a country look so easy. Too bad that they ignore the difficulty the US has with managing the country afterwards. If they paid better attention, all this suffering could have been avoided.

[@paulsansonetti7410]

thats nice of you to give tips to Mr Putin , who has won all 5 wars he has waged since 1999 ntm he has 8 superweapons that the US has absolutely no parallels to

[@askfaisalmuslim]

@@h-minus2212 toppling Saddam's regime was the 'easy part' because his regime was also hated by the people, but yeah managing the country afterwards became a disaster.

[@donaldhillesheim6978]

Its not a miscalculation. They're not trying to win a war. No one wins war. Wealthy people get wealthier from war profiteering regardless of who wins. The more people that get involved the more weapons and ammo are needed.

[@larrybuzbee7344]

Peter was speaking with his trademark certainty one month ago that Russia would roll right over Ukraine. Here, with equal certainty despite Ukraine still standing he says unequivocally that Ukraine will be overrun in one or two more months. With equivalent vocal certainty I predict that Ukraine will have driven out the invader by July.

[@MythicMoss]

I think everyone thought Ukraine would lose before the war and while it seems like Ukraine is winning now we should still not underestimate the Russians

[@larrybuzbee7344]

@@MythicMoss Someone really smart once said "Predictions are hard to make. especially ones about the future". Most talking heads and the bulk of professional opionators had the same gerneral opinions, as usual. What has always made me stop and go 🤔 with Ziehan though is his rock solid certainty when making predictions, as if events must inevitably follow from his principles. I respect his knowledge and viewpoint, but the future is not written in stone, and it is just not possible to predict specific short term outcomes as he does here. War is chaotic, and both individual characters (Zelinski) and national cohesion can have decisive and unpredictable influnces on events. Time will tell, but I'll bet Mr. Ziehan has neither carried a rifle nor hidden in the Italian pucker brush ready to fire a tactical nuclear ballistic missile as I have. Soldiers are soldiers and those poor Russian grunts are screwed and they know it. At some point they will stop fighting the Ukrainians and start fighting each other. Then it's all over but the shoutin'.

[@newcenturyhomedecor7545]

Absent a NATO involvement, June will be the end of the war.

[@larrybuzbee7344]

@@newcenturyhomedecor7545 From your lips to god's own ear. But messy business tends to have a messy ending. There are many forms an 'ending' could take and I have a feeling it will be more of a Korea like standoff rather than WW2, which, apparently we are still fighting. I think the real ending of the Ukranian situation will only come when a new Russia sheds its chrysalis of autarchy once and for all. And that will be very messy indeed when and if.

[@nomadcorporatist]

Spot on! speaking assertively and world geography r his only skills

[@dario3716]

Thank you for the great interviewing. In my opinion Peter Zeihan was leaving out important points why Russia is doing worse than expected and painting Russia stronger than it really is. He was talking about the 10 million reserve troops as military strength of Russia but as we have seen in Ukraine, Russia is not able to find well trained troops, gather, coordinate and care for 300000 troops so how should they be able to do so for 10 millions? And further I would question the physical condition and capability of those reserves to fight in a war. Men in Russia tend to live unhealthier than in the west. As of what I understand is that Russia seems to have a huge problem with corruption in the military. This made the Russian army look very powerful on paper but in reality it is actually much worse. I don't see Russia to fix this issue quickly as it is deeply engraved in the whole political and economical system there.

[@silentbob5566]

Keep in mind that the invasion was completely unprepared though. Russia has NOT been acting per its military doctrine, what with three strategic echelons formed from general mobilization and draft. Train as you fight, fight as you train, and this time Putin for purely political reasons it seems wanted war on the cheap, because Ukraine was supposed to just roll over like in Crimean. So performance of Russia in Ukraine now does not have to be indicative of what Russia can do in general, just like it happened in Winter War (in Finland).

[@dario3716]

@@silentbob5566 Personally I doubt this. Why would they go to war unprepared? Sounds like a bad excuse. Some sources claim Russia prepared for such a scenario a long time ago. Which makes sense. I'm sure they had such plans in their drawers laying around for years. Anything else would not be professional for the military. Also keep in mind this conflict has been going on since 2014. Russia for sure went through a vast of different models and strategies up to now.

[@silentbob5566]

@@dario3716 " Why would they go to war unprepared?" Because FSB apparently ensured Putin that this would be repeat of 2014 conquest of Crimea that for Russians was basically just driving a few BTRs into the thing? Note: apparently heads roll in FSB now, but not among the generals. Probably generals didn't lie and objected that this was ad hoc affair that could go wrong, so even Putin doesn't blame them. Do not attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by simple incompetence.

[@silentbob5566]

@@dario3716 You also need to understand the attitude of Russians towards Ukrainians. First, they refuse to recognize that Ukrainian nation as such exists, those are just confused Russians you see. Second, they look down with almost contempt on them, thinking they can't organize anything really. Third, until now Ukrainians basically didn't disappoint them in this belief given what used to be reality of Ukraine until several years ago, that is, dysfunction and corruption, in some ways worse even than in Russia. However, Ukraine A.D. 2022 is a proof that countries can change and apparently they have done their homework given to them by Russians in 2014. Surprise, not just for the Russians, everybody fought that Ukraine wouldn't be able to put up a fight. Anyway, this is a complex topic and saying "this is excuse" without delving in the details can't yield you the truth.

[@dario3716]

@@silentbob5566 I understand what you are saying and I believe that the "simple Russian man" has this thinking you described. But if that would have been the case with the Russian secret service - that is incompetence at the highest level. Which I believe is unlikely, but not impossible. Further I believe the Russians were not adequately aware of their own corruption in their system and military. Also the military showed huge incompetence with bad planing (fuel, food, amo, tactics etc.) which has nothing to do with the secret service and also not with the fact that they thought the war would be over in a few days. After several days and weeks they still showed this behavior. For Ukraine it was easier in the sense that they "only" needed to prepare against one threat. I believe Russia has been waiting since 2014 for a good timing to carry out this attack and chose this moment to do it. I have no detailed information about these kind of strategics but given the pandemic has disrupted the world, right after could be in favor of Russia upon other factors. I assume it must have been difficult for Russia to predict the reaction and extent of Europe and the USA towards the war. I believe the actions have been quite firm. Where do your believes and convictions come from?

[@rockinbobokkin7831]

I think Peter is very smart, and I agree with him on many points, but I think he has misread the Ukraine War. I think he decided Russia was stronger, and he got a lot of press run two weeks ago for this, but I don't think he's correct. I think , two weeks later, we can see a Ukraine that can very possibly win or get nuked.

[@dirtcache6128]

And which of these options do you see Russia taking?

[@ArikIkirA]

Oh well this did not aged well. I normally like Zeihan consideration but here he is making generic points deriving from mainstream (not military) informations and only collected on one side. Many analysts thought, if not the same, something very similar.

[@clarkewi]

Scary times.

[@c.p.1090]

What is your thoughts on Russia and Bitcoin for oil deal?

[@PrimericanIdol]

PZ needs to debate Gonzalo Lira.

[@JinKee]

The Fourth Turning is upon us

[@paulmattsson2878]

The most important point to recognize is that Russia has never actually declared war on Ukraine. If it had, Kiev would be a crater, the government driven underground, electricity cut, and transportation lines cut. They have no intention of ruling Ukraine and have actually been quite measured. What people view as incompetence is not the case. It’s simply a numbers game that Ukraine cannot win- and the longer this drags out the worse it will get for Ukraine. The territories in the east, whose inhabitants are Russian-speaking ethnic Russians, are not going to be a part of Ukraine any longer. Not happening.

[@RandomNooby]

We may well all be in similar circumstances if they had. Have a look at Peruns factual analysis of the entire ability of NATOs ability to protect the US and the rest from nukes. Basically, unless you are living on a sub, or an Arleigh Burke with the latest iteration of Aegis, you are going to have a very short and bad day...

[@uschurch]

😂 Stalin's forced migration of Russians into Eastern Ukraine will not change the intl recognized territory of Ukraine. Dream on botski

[@matsberg7495]

Peter Zeihan is at the moment a warpornographer.

[@cooldudecs]

War will be regular conversation

[@RJStockton]

5:35 I had no idea Trump admitted to anything. What an amazing discovery for me.

[@keithmaddock7786]

He didn't

[@KostitosConQueso]

I agree with Zeihan on a lot but his political/partisan takes as of late have been kinda "meh", especially with regards to Trump, Biden, Jan 6, and vaccines. Not to say I'm pro or anti any of those, I just don't agree with Peter's takes.

[@cooldudecs]

@@KostitosConQueso I stick to his geopolitical takes … We are all biased

[@richardgaynor6113]

Peter thinks a police officer was beaten to death by protesters on Jan 6. I'm sure he's misinformed about that.

[@mscari]

Russians don’t want a longer border, just a border that allows a path in their territory to Sevastopol and Southern/Eastern Ukraine. They have no interest in Northern and Western Ukraine. Cannot understand why the West/NATO do not even consider this, fully agree with John Mearsheimer on this.

[@hasanchoudhury5401]

Very encouraging to hear substantial discussions. Regards.

[@viktorakse3326]

He's now no longer saying that a Russian victory is certain (this talk is from the 17th). Check out his latest talks with jack Carr for example, where he gives Ukraine's military a chance to actually defeat the Russian invasion. Zeihan is incredible at analyzing the big picture, but sometimes "local" small-picture factors, like supply issues and ambushing of russian convoys by Ukrainians, can add up to a big-picture factor.

[@Holdfast1812]

True. And the other thing to remember is that other people can come to the same conclusions he does - and take action to avoid the pitfalls he sees. Essentially, Zeihan's analysis is a snapshot in the facts extant and the time he does the analysis, as in all things, things change to a number of variables from that point in time onwards.

[@CmdrCorn]

I think hes brilliant and has excellent, novel models for long term cyclical, commodity, and demographic trends.... BUT his views of contemporary politics (Biden is a populist?!) and this Ukraine/Russia war in particular are so mainstream and almost ANTI-contrarian, that I cant help but feel like he's got either an agenda or a blindspot... The second Russia appears to be doing something to expand the conflict beyond their stated goals of demilitarizing Ukraine and securing the Donbas, (WITHOUT a false flag incident spurred by the West) I will eat my hat and apologize... However the second some "chemical weapons" or a random nuke finds its way into Poland I call BS, because please believe the West and the globalists NEED this war to carry on with the Great Reset and Bretton Woods 3.0 to deal with OUR demographics and economic issues...

[@robertalaverdov8147]

I think a lot of people are ready to declare victory without understanding all the options available to Putin. The Russians still haven't called up their reserves. They've also not targeted any of the power plants or electric substations in Ukraine. None of the bridges over the Dnieper have been destroyed. Or those over the Bug or Dniester river in western Ukraine. None of the railway junctions in western Ukraine. Doing this would strangle most of the supplies coming over from NATO. AKA the most basic tactic in war, cut off enemy supply. At minimum they destroyed some of the airports but small drones can use a tiny strip of highway to operate. They're also still sending gas thru Ukraine. Either the Russian leadership is ludicrously incompetent in fighting a total war or they're hoping for a negotiated peace deal and trying not to cause to much animosity by destroying vital economic assets. As stupid as that sounds.

[@oldsalt8011]

Drama and drama voice.

[@one4320]

@@CmdrCorn 8 minutes in and I was about to comment on his one sided mainstream myopic view, but you beat me to it.

[@Ab-qv8zc]

Important info like this should be available without premium membership. But if you had to pay 20k for guest speaker I understand. I appreciate the first half.

[@atmshuvo44]

Why should russia cares about so called gaps?dont they Have nukes?can anyone explain?

[@stephens1950]

Let Europe solve their own problems

[@DE-xt7jv]

You forgot to mention bush jar?

[@MrGreenTabasco]

The nazis came to power in germany in 1933, not 36.

[@michelbisson6645]

Seem huge correction is coming, we have no choice but to wake up, and realiuse all our mistakes and correct,,,,We will be rectified...We are all in the boat heading in the same direction...

[@chrissschwehr5911]

I take that back....this was done 9 months ago and the situation has changed a lot....NATO is now considering membership of Ukraine......and there are mutterings of a mutiny of the Russian Army...

[@kamarudinharun7443]

The intro is so long

[@paulsansonetti7410]

critical to the Russians view of themselves? you are really conflating that with their own strategic security?

[@guycanuk]

Can Russia offer Non-Aggression Pacts with individual EU/NATO Countries? Some may accept which will destabilize the Hawks.

[@mikefas1160]

I could not agree more with Mr. Zeihan. Putin was not secretive about his dreams and how upset he was that the Soviet empire dissolved. If I were the US president or one of the EU leaders, I would make sure all of my submarines with nuclear missiles were at sea all the time possible, given maintenance and resupply needs. Only deterrence may avoid the Russians resorting eventually to nuclear weapons to try to conquer Poland, etc. In particular, we must give Ukraine hundreds of the newly developed, long range antiship missiles that can coordinate attacks and thereby attack Russian ships from different directions at once. If Russia's navy is sunk by Ukraine, we can supply Ukraine freely and cut off Russia's access to shipping and to transportation from its critical, Black Sea ports. We have one opportunity to stop Russia right now; we may not have another later. In another video, Peter Zeihan apparently predicts that next year will be when the Boomers pull out of the markets and stocks markets go whoosh. While the economy may delay some retirements, I suspect he is right except for stocks of certain critical products which will soon be even more scarce. Millenials reportedly are not having kids. "5 reasons more millennials are choosing not to have children" and "The millennial baby boom probably isn't going to happen" in Business Insider. I sure hope that those reports are wrong for the future of the US, but suspect they are right. To supplement the lazy, less than fertile Millenials (just kidding), we should look at the Ukrainian refugees, with children, who have been raised in a better K through 12 educational system than ours, as a god-sent opportunity, open wide our doors, and welcome them as immigrants. See "8 Facts About Education in Ukraine" in Borgen Project.

[@didiermontagnier6114]

Zeihan is part of the misinformation campaign, so congratulations on being gullible. Putin had already put his nuclear forces on alert, so if he gets desperate enough because his fleets are sunk by our missiles, then he may push the button. All our nuclear armed submarines can do is to retaliate. There is no reason why Putin would bother to invade Poland or the Baltic nations. It’s one thing to invade Ukraine but an entirely different thing to test Article 5. Don’t buy Zeihan’s bs on Putin wanting to plug the traditional invasion routes. Ask yourself this, why would a country with enough nukes to destroy the earth many times over worries about being invaded. If Fat Kim in North Korea has no such fear because of his nukes then it’s asinine to think Putin does.

[@alanparsonsfan]

@@didiermontagnier6114 I think there is no question that putin would like to plug all the 9 gaps, but in real life it's becoming clear that he may have to give up on those lofty ambitions.

[@didiermontagnier6114]

@@alanparsonsfan Putin can wipe out any army entering those gaps with his tactical nukes. It’s in Russia’s military doctrine. The war in Ukraine is about control resources and nothing else. Look up the water crisis in the Crimea. That is just one reason

[@mikefas1160]

@@didiermontagnier6114 Actually, I agree with your analysis that Putain does not have any reasonable fear of being invaded but only a fantasy fear, like some people fear clowns. On the other hand, Russia's demographics are catastrophic: that is shown in demography and statistics, which Mr. Zeihan is just repeating. Many articles discuss Russia's demography. See "Russia’s Discouraging Demographics Shouldn’t Change U.S. Approach" in Harvard's Davis Center's website. Mr. Zeihan is just summarizing facts.

[@didiermontagnier6114]

@@mikefas1160 Yes, Russians have a looming demographic crisis on their hands and Putin knows it. The Ukrainians have been trying to join the EU and NATO for years and they repeatedly have been rejected. Not only because Ukraine is too corrupted but it would trigger Russia. However, the water crisis in the Crimea and Ukraine’s newly discovered gas fields are going to hurt Russia economically. For a country’s whose economy is mostly rely on revenue from the sales of fossil fuels, it would be devastating. Putin also miscalculated on how fiercely the Ukrainians would resist an invasion and how strong the responses from the West would be. I used to think Putin is always a couple steps ahead, but he is really digging himself into a hole this time. In fact, the neighbor Putin should really fear is China, not NATO. Not only do they share a long border but China has never given up its desire to win back Outer Manchuria and gain access to the Arctic. A long dragged out war in Ukraine with or without NATO’s involvement would bleed Russia dried of blood and treasures. Treasures can be replaced but Russia can hardly afford to lose more men with its looming demographic armageddon.

[@AnonymousAlcoholic772]

Lol. I work for a Company called kofinas olive oil. Are you my overlord?

[@MajorSam4321]

His over all outlook is positive for North America, but we will have to develop new energy technologies for the rest of the world to maintain societal norms without the use of coal.

[@calc1657]

Russia withdrew from Afghanistan and Eastern Europe. There were no nuclear weapons used. Zeihan overplays the prospects of nuclear weapons being used.

[@sebastianb.1926]

That was the USSR, being lead by both the KGB and the Politburo. This is Russia, being lead by one man.

[@4700_Dk]

I’m curious if the Peter see’s the NATO troops in the Baltic as a “trip wire” ? They are in a precarious situation with their backs to the Baltic Sea, and a small gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad that can be easily sealed. Thus cutting them all.

[@baddolphin1423]

Cutting them by land. I suspect the strategists have taken the Suvalki gap into account.

[@markpukey8]

Well of course they are in part a trip wire. But unlike in Korea where dead Americans is the sign that the North is invading the South, the Baltic states are full NATO members. It should not matter what nationality any of the NATO troops are, they are supposed to be there to keep a NATO members civilians alive. So even if they were not there... NATO as a whole should respond the same to any Russian incursion.

[@Drew070476]

Why is controlling the gateways critical when Russia has a strategic nuclear deterrent? Doesn’t this change the strategic calculus, making mass ground invasion of the Russian heartland highly unlikely?

[@KostitosConQueso]

I would assume the nukes are a weapon of last resort. Conventional weapons are still relevant and the Russians still need strategic depth

[@Lennis01]

Sometimes just having a conventional military in a position to threaten one of the gateways into a nation can have a destabilizing effect, even if that military is never used to actually invade. It puts pressure on the target nation that forces it to alter its behavior in a way that can become self-defeating. This was the West's aim when it sought to expand NATO into Georgia and Ukraine. Left unchecked, Russia would have buckled under the strain and eventually had no choice but to surrender a portion of its sovereignty in exchange for peace and the fragile hope of a prosperity governed outside of Russia's borders. This was unacceptable to Russia's governing elite (Putin), so they took aims to disrupt the West's plans starting with a brief war in Georgia in 2008, plotting a Crimean referendum in 2014 to justify its annexation, and culminating in the current war to split Ukraine in two. Not to be overlooked is the West's efforts to undermine Russia's regional influence through the use of color revolutions to remove Russian-friendly governments; a successful one in Ukraine a few years ago (which put Zelenskyy in power) and an unsuccessful one in Kazakhstan this year. The war in Ukraine is just as much the West's fault as it is Putin's, if not more so. Putting Putin's back to the wall, what other choice did he have other than to surrender power and have Russia's fortunes dictated by foreign powers, as it was under Yeltsin? You won't find many Russians who look favorably on the Yeltsin years.

[@gregpaul882]

bc the Russians are crazy. It's well documented. All the best Russian literature is about how crazy they are

[@deshaunjensen2454]

Nuclear deterrents don't guarantee that you won't get invaded and what are you going to do when 'they' are besieging your cities? Bomb your own cities along with the invasion force?

[@Ryan-Fkrepublicnz]

It is almost certain that the U.S. military knew how bad the Russian military was/is, but being that virtually ALL U.S. generals "retire" to work for weapons manufacturers, it just isn't good business for the Military Industrial Complex to point out that we have enough weapons to destroy anyone. Instead nearly 800 billion dollars spent every year and a trillion dollars that simply disappeared from the armed forces.

[@Chyuuch]

his whole Russia bit in the first part of this interview sounded eerily like the propaganda on mainstream media. It wasn't until he went into the social media bit that I knew that's what I was listening to for sure.

[@grandcrowdadforde6127]

me thinks P Z is a "" plant"".......and i don t mean a tulip !!

[@EstimatedProphet74]

Lol, looks like a few Russian bots are still active

[@grandcrowdadforde6127]

@@EstimatedProphet74 >>> HA! they fighting with the Ukraine bots? whos winning??

[@Chyuuch]

@@EstimatedProphet74 they give us proof of aliens every other day but still no proof of the infamous Russian bots. The propaganda and subsequent programing and mind control are plenty evident tho

[@EstimatedProphet74]

@@Chyuuch You Trumpers are hilarious. Good luck storming the castle!

[@arbreci9398]

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop?

[@johnphamlore8073]

That's not what Putin wants, some geopolitical game guarding frontiers in Ukraine. Putin said clearly what he wanted in Berlin 2007, an end to the US-led unipolar world. That is why he chose now, the point of maximum stress after 2 years of pandemic. Putin knows Russia can't compete in the current world order, so he is changing the equation. The parts of the US unipolar world apart from Europe and a few developed countries in Asia are leaving now because of neglect. Already MBS of Saudi Arabia doesn't even pick up the phone to answer the President of the United States. The Global South is staying neutral. Russia in the short-term will be struck down. But Russia according to the West's predictions was already doomed demographically if the current world order persisted. But what if Russia could inflict enough damage on the existing world order so that it collapses? Then there would be nothing on the other side for those restless in Russia's sphere of influence to want to escape to.

[@markpukey8]

So you're saying that Russia has started a war that they KNOW will destroy Russia faster than it may have declined on its own... to harm the US led order on it's way out? What part of ANYTHING the Russians have done in the past 30 years leads you to believe they would ever self-sacrifice like that, just to help other nations? Your theory does not pass the "likely" test because if Russia was acting like this, it would be the very first time in their history. This is a nation that forcibly seized buffer zones in the from of the former SSR's and SPECIFICALLY SAID part of their purpose was to fight and die before actual Russians got into the fight. Also, the decline of the current world order was actually well underway already. If you catch more of Zeihan's vids or read his books he makes this argument very thoroughly. Since 1989 when the USSR fell, the US has worked to maintain the order even though it is no longer needed for our strategic purposes. And every President since Pappy Bush has been doing things to back the US away from its role in the center of the current world order. Russia could have watched it fall apart by just doing nothing.

[@mbak7801]

Russia has no spare Army to attack anywhere else at the moment. What it did send into Ukraine is being ground to pulp. Slowly and expensively but it is happening. If NATO got involved with modern weapons then the WWII style of Russian Army would be exterminated very quickly indeed. That just leaves nuclear weapons. Senior Russian commanders and Putin probably are more than happy to sacrifice everything to attack the West. A childish 'If I cannot win then nobody wins'. well that leaves a pre-emptive strike against Russia as the least cost option. Just save the world and wipe it.

[@brex50]

Wow....is he a psychopath or just a sociopath......its a toss up......

[@raginald7mars408]

as a German Biologist and Pythagorean - looking at 5 000 Years of continuous devastating War - there is no Peace. There are interglacial Phases of restruction - of gaining vital resources - to build up the military war machine - to start a new War again. With the infinite Resources today - the War action becomes unlimited. Partisan and Guerilla Warfare becomes unstoppable. We have latent terrorism all over the world - that easily can incite larger conflicts. In this view I have no hope for Humanity.

[@georgeokello8620]

Well there are no infinite resources. After all the cap on economic production is always going to be tied to energy. Right now the oil refineries do not have enough productive capacity to meet consumption demands of even 6 billion people and is sufficient to maintain economic production for around 15 years (very optimistic estimate). This is not to mention even "green projects" naturally consume more fossil fuels at higher cost due to relying heavily on rate earth metal production. The processes of making those metals require extraction of waste and impurities and excess energy. All which deplete energy reserves and will drive the costs of almost all global commodities and realize "inflationary effects"

[@mrrajeff]

this did not age that well tho...

[@felipearbustopotd]

The end is nigh, 🥱 The world wants / needs solutions, not constant upheavals. Thank you for uploading and sharing.

[@alklapaxida850]

an ineresting perspective prepeared cartefully to be palleteable for the west

[@markpukey8]

Yeah, reality is like that. Go figure.

[@lawrenceralph7481]

The problems identified have a myriad of other less extreme solutions, many superior for all involved. A nuclear exchange is a nightmare/ suicide that kills widely and indiscriminately the attacker, the defender and the uninvolved and therefore is very unlikely.

[@cooldudecs]

It’s not a possibility … Russia wants to survive

[@jarrettbobbett5230]

Public education frailer is the true American dream.

[@BodyByBenSLC]

I honestly wonder if Russian nukes still work?

[@cooldudecs]

They have no apt reason to use them… China will not like this

[@ronaldtkacz1309]

NATO has no need to engage directly, because demographically, Russia will dissolve on its own by 2050.

[@merridius2006]

False. When the soviet union existed, the Russians didn't have Romania which Peter says had the Bessarabian gap. Probably he's referring to the Tsarist Empire. He said a lot of stuff which was off like that Russia is going to invade the Republic of Moldova a few weeks ago which they still didn't do and it's becoming likely they will never do.

[@hughjass1044]

The Russians themselves didn't have the Bessarabian Gap but they still controlled it through an allied power in Romania. It wasn't in their hands directly but at least it wasn't in the hands of their adversaries. Good enough for their purposes. As Peter and others have said many times, Putin doesn't necessarily have a problem with his borderlands being "independent" countries so long as they are friendly and cooperative towards him..... ie Belarus, Kazakhstan and so on. And there is still plenty of time for Moldova. Maybe they get it done, maybe they don't but I wouldn't rule it out just because it hasn't happened yet.

[@carlosandleon]

Lmao, they didn't invade moldova because they're struggling with Ukraine

[@merridius2006]

@@hughjass1044 true

[@chrishooge3442]

@@carlosandleon Correction: They haven't invaded Moldova because they got surprised in Ukraine. Your welcome.

[@carlosandleon]

@@chrishooge3442 my what?

[@Wuuzzaaful]

As a Russian living in Germany for over 30y, Mr Zeihan sounds like a massive doomer. Huge fan your your channel!

[@USandGlobal]

Sucks for you 😂

[@4700_Dk]

He did predict it some months and years ago.

[@Wuuzzaaful]

@Dude Absolutely 😁

[@Wuuzzaaful]

@@USandGlobal Can't disagree.

[@Wuuzzaaful]

@@4700_Dk What exactly? Russians starting wwiii or the reincarnation of the Nazis?

[@SolzhenitsynBoogie]

Keep buying storable food, water filtration and ammunition.

[@GenXstacker]

Peter has a lot of narratives that he says with a lot of confidence yet basically boil down to just his personal opinion. To be honest I'm really not sure how much Credence to give his predictions.

[@Nick-bh5bk]

He predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine in one of his books 8 years ago. That might give him a bit of credence...

[@GenXstacker]

@@Nick-bh5bk They already invaded Ukraine 8 years ago.

[@balderblue3577]

@@GenXstacker "just his opinion" LOL He based His prediction in economy and demography, the core of his assumption is math, the numbers are cold, you simply don't like what you just heard

[@JonathonLietz]

Just keep thinking that..

[@alanfriedley8173]

There ARE other choices and ( their ) sultry views ... CBS... FOX... FACEBOOK....🤔. . : ///

[@huskerfan-el4jx]

I am maga and anti vax and he says things about me that are so far off the mark that it really disturbing to me. The disconnect between me and the technocracy is so wide it feels like we are on different planets. Growing up my moms side of the family were all gold miners and my dads side were all in the timber industry. I watched hollywood and the left demonize both sides of my family my whole life. It didnt make any sense to me because i loved them. I have a great family. Then we had a pine beetle infestation start around 2000. The forest service tried to get in and stop it. For every one acre infected 10 acres would have to be cleared. At this time a person would have to hike into the hills to find these beetle areas. Enviromentalists stopped it. Now the forest has been destroyed. Dead trees everywhere. I eventually went to work in the oil industry. Again i am demonized. Not as just wanting to kill a forest but as wanting to destroy the entire planet. I dont want to do that. So the government decides we want green energy. Windmills and solar panels cause we only have 10 or 12 years to save the planet. These things dont work. We could go nuclear and natural gas. That would help dramatically but they dont want that. Why? Then we get obamacare. Gonna save the healthcare industry. All i got were my premiums tripled and i now have a huge deductable and we are still talking about the problems in the healthcare system. No one in my family has ever gone to prison. My brother spent a night in jail once when he was in high school. No one does drugs. I understand we all get government benefits but i dont know what mine are or how they improve my life. Despite all this Peter Zeihan tells me i am maga and antivax because of russian propaganda. Why are my motivations such a mystery to people like Peter Ziehan? I have been trained by the left and the government to not trust anything they say my entire life, and everyone that i mingle with is coming from the same place as i am. Peter Zeihan is from Iowa right? Has he never met anyone like me in Iowa?

[@kennyb77767]

I am a trump supporter and I have listened to zeihan for a number of years now. He will say what is popular with mainstream media. I wonder if he wasnt infront of a camera if he would say the same thing. I wonder if censorship changes alot of what he can say. I think he is a coastal elite 90s democrat who believes globalization is a great thing. He doesnt care about middle america and he encourages California to import a slave labor class to keep agriculture going regardless of the consequences. For global economics I think he is pretty good, but for social movements he is lost as much as most people. Take things with a grain of salt.

[@huskerfan-el4jx]

@@kennyb77767 i have read all his books and i plan on reading his next one. I think he is a good source of information. I just think his philiosophy has gone off the rails. I wonder where his pay checks come from.

[@Lennis01]

He said it himself. He's a globalist. By definition that means he sees the working class as a means to a geopolitical end that has to be managed by a professional class (i.e. people like him). The working class is seen as an asset, not as people. They are expected to sacrifice for the "greater good" and cannot be allowed political power under any circumstances, lest the carefully laid plans of the professional class be wrecked and the world descend into chaos. This is perhaps an unkind thing to say about this man, but I doubt he himself understands the depths with which he dismisses the humanity of the working class. This is a trait common to most elites in human history. Some things never change.

[@frankdattilo1836]

Zeihan is a fraud….Bush lap-dog….

[@hasheemal-minz7531]

@ user-pi9ct7uf6f Valuable comment. Thank you. Never trust any government. They are serving the rich.

[@anthonyyoung6489]

Slava Ukraini

[@Prez3D]

Ukraine is NOT going to fall...not sure where your confidence is coming from, but I'd wager you're going to look back at this statement and walk back on it.

[@martinmarchef8303]

This speaker is so biased! He is doing good propaganda for his camp...he sounds happy...its pathetic!

[@edward9862]

What did the Keystone Cops invade, again?

[@wolfgangamadeus1246]

The minute Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries start to accept the Yuan or other currencies for oil, the post WWII American hegemony is toast and the value of your dollar savings and investments will decrease rapidly in the world market.

[@markpukey8]

Why? I think your point is silly, but go ahead and convince me. Maybe I'm wrong.

[@markpukey8]

@@nitrovshood653 I think that would be the BEST CASE from China's perspective. And the Saudi's want America to have bases there. Google for Saudis offering to pay America to man their national defenses for them. They want America more than China. They're just confused because they also want as much money as possible. But Wolfie's point is still wrong. EVERY commodity on the planet is dollar denominated. The US$ is the global reserve currency. Even if Oil shifted away, food, technology and everything else still wants $$$ for payment. And beyond that, "American Hegemony" is due to a whole lot more than dollar dominance. China buying oil in Yuan changes NOTHING about US trade deals, US Navy presence, US force projection, US Soft Power, US control of SWIFT, US diplomacy power... I could go on. Hegemony is a many sided issue. Petro-dollars are just one small part of it all.

[@gregpaul882]

First no one is stopping them. There is no law making it so oil can only be purchased in $. The reason is b/c Yuan sucks. The Chinese have proven time and time again they can not be trusted. They tamper with the Yuan non-stop. This conversation is stoner bs

[@George-vf7ss]

Place your bets, place your bets. We're about to spin the wheel.....

[@hasheemal-minz7531]

It‘s reality

[@norakheroian791]

no russia no problems no crisis drop THE BOMB

[@user-hg9uf7cv9t]

27:16 27:16 27:16

[@spacewalktraveller1]

This guy is a know it all that sits on the side and just voices his naive opinion about what everyone has done wrong.

[@wifidemonzzz]

this guy is based