Should you Buy a New or Used Car? - The Bathtub Curve

Greg discusses wether you should buy a new or used car using the bathtub curve as the best example to prove it. The bathtub curve (or the break-in period) is an engineering graph that illustrates the life cycle of any manufactured product. In this video Greg explains how it pertains to cars and whether you should buy a new car or a used car. Discussed are early failure rate, the stable phase and the end of life phase which make up the bathtub curve. Richard Deming introduced the concept that Toyota perfected. The Toyota Production System is discussed and how the TPS is the best quality control system in manufacturing.
Sweet Spot Video is here: • Should You Buy a New o...
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[@kenfreer1887]

Never heard of the bath tub curve before, I liked the simple explanation of product life cycle/span- and I do love my 2 Toyota’s @ 195,000 mile Toyota’s and still running and working excellent

[@marcellevesque9961]

I am 70 years old. I have never bought a new car in my life. I almost bought a new Dodge Dart about 3 years ago. Luckily I came to my senses thereby dodging a bullet. Dart was and is pretty junky car.

[@jnhg9808]

In my case, buying a new Tacoma makes sense, because all the 1-3 year old used ones aren't that much lower in price, some are even higher than the new one I bought. And I'm talking about similar trims, not comparing base model to top of the line one.

[@suggesttwo]

300000 left.

[@ernieD]

@@jnhg9808 And lately, with all the floods in different areas, there are many new looking autos that are prolly flood damaged but cleaned up and being sold. Electrical issues/other problemd will ensue in time. At least in S.E.Texas this may apply.

[@trwsandford]

and Ford Trucks.. my 2003 F-150 v6 stick shift has 250,000 miles. looks better to me now than it did when I bought it new.. lol

[@munecaeburro]

9:40 That's it. I heard that before, but I bought a new BMW, and as soon the warranty expired, that thing started to ask for money like a dirty politician.

[@farhan3296]

so would you buy a used BMW now or used Toyota?

[@BryceLovesTech]

We've owned five Toyotas and they were never in the shop. We've owned one Chrysler minivan and the head gasket blew at 80,000 miles

[@TheActiveAssault]

If you have a Range Rover is just a super narrow V.

[@peter-jm1pu]

lol, or fiat

[@elvinlee7592]

Look at the defender that tfl got.

[@cradleofrelaxation6473]

Hahahahhaha I can imagine!!😢

[@andrewstones2921]

I used to work in a computer shop in the 1990's selling computers, I explained this to my customers as why they did NOT need an extended warranty because the period of the extended warranty is the sweet spot in what we called "The Bathtub Curve of Equipment Failure". I suppose the difference with cars is that the sweet spot can be extended with good servicing.

[@BoopSnoot]

One big difference between say a lightbulb or computer though, is that you can't really use it wrong. You flip a switch, and the lightbulb or computer turns on, voila. As you pointed out, HOW you use a vehicle can have a huge impact on how long it lasts. Did the previous owner race the engine to redline before the oil was warmed up? Did they race over potholes causing huge extra wear to the suspension? Did they follow all the recommended maintenance guidelines or know they were going to sell it in a year so didn't bother or put in the cheapest oil and filters they could find? Did they get into a fender bender and not report it to insurance since they were at fault and had an inadequate repair done?

[@maximusextreme3725]

I'd like to talk to you about your car's extended warranty.

[@mikem1464]

so that's why Scotty Kilmer raves about that damn '94 Celica!

[@SalveMonesvol]

I'm pretty sure that '94 would be considered "end of life"

[@lab664]

lol

[@TheTacticalHouse]

SalveMonesvol If it’s still reliable and works.. it’s not end of life. Americans have largely changed vs our great grandparents. They use it up, wore it out, fixed it, and repeated the process.

[@SalveMonesvol]

@@TheTacticalHouse Dude, I have a 1999 Alfa 166 3.0

[@harleygrit5210]

Gotta love Scotty!

[@mcconn746]

As a retired Quality Engineer in the auto field, I would like to point out that the foundation of Toyota and other Japanese manufacturer's manufacturing success was built on Statistical Process Control. SPC was largely founded by Deming and others in the US. Sadly, US auto manufacturers ignored these Guys until they saw the results of Japanese manufacturers who were listening to Deming and company.

[@ding174]

Perfect example: bought used 2001 Toyota Tacoma, 100% made in Japan, in 2007 with 60k miles, Oldest kid drove it through high school before the youngest did the same ( total of 8 years) I inherited it and used it for two more years before selling it with 187K miles before buying a 2010 FJ IN 2017. That Tacoma sold to the first buyer for 6800. Oil, gas, go plus a new radiator and belts and a new master cylinder. The truck served us for ten years and 127k miles give or take, and never let us down. It had and still has one hell of a SWEET SPOT. THANK YOU TOYOTA!

[@stevebolszewski]

You teach better then the over paid college professors. And NO financial aid. Thank you

[@BoopSnoot]

Yeah, but the college professors offer extra value. For example, they won't just teach a math lesson, but also why its white people's fault that I'm bad at math, which makes me feel better. :D

[@georgeetoile6686]

Excellent simplified presentation for the average car owner. I am a Mechanical Engineer and have seen it many times. All that is missing is specific recommendations on how old the car is, at what approximate mileage, and expected life of particular components. That is a tall order when talking in general about cars, and not specific makes and models. Best bet is to compare the total costs of repairs against the current depreciated value of the car. That is is what it would currently sell for on the used car market. That gives you some perspective on whether to keep the car or sell it.

[@rubicondon04]

There is good reason for the complete failure of the big three. I grew up on Chrysler cars and Ford Pickups. I gave up on Chrysler on the year model 2005 with their failed Motori Diesel. A 1989 Ford Pickup was my last Ford. We tried VWs, once, but they too are junk. We just dumped a New Beetle and replaced it with a 2016 Rav4. However, back in 2000 I purchased a lease return 1996 Lexus LX 450 ( Landcruiser). I just had the valve stem seals replaced 4,000 miles ago, and installed my own radiator and rebuilt the heater core three months ago. The pistons, head, valves and valve train were in perfect condition. The shop cleaned everything and re-assembled. I'm on only my second alternator and the second starter. All the rubber ( door seals, hoses, o-rings, gaskets, etc, ) and the solid front axle were also rebuilt at 226,000 miles. New ignition wires about every 100,000 miles, with new plugs every 50 or so and regular fluid changes. New paint job just two years ago. It didn't really need the paint, but it was nice to freshen it up a bit. This vehicle is so well engineered that it will last well over a half million miles, in fact, it was designed to do just that. Keeping all this in mind, The average cost per year of owning and maintaining this vehicle has been little under $2,000, which is half what most folks spend annually on cost and maintenance. As the months tick by, the cost of ownership only becomes lower as a lot of the aforementioned work was done somewhat recently. Oh, I almost neglected to mention a very important fact. My Landcruiser currently has 297,870 miles on it. More than that actually because my oversize tires add an additional 6% to that figure. So it is at half life. Yes, if everyone purchased vehicles for the long term, it just might collapse the American economy which leads me to believe that there may just be something wrong with the economic structure in this country.

[@jacktracy4845]

MOAK “there just might be something wrong with the economic structure of this country.” Well, DUH.

[@georgeetoile6686]

You are so right. American cars are intentionally designed with limited lifespans and with poor corrosion resistance. The better to sell you a new one every two or three years.

[@thedevilsadvocate5210]

They're all shitboxes

[@marvinmontgomery1291]

Moak : I bought a 1994 GMC Sonoma and it had 346"k" miles on it before I got rear-ended and it was totaled I didn't have to put a starter on it until 200"K"mi

[@hansdoward]

Slowing the consumption and manufacturing rates will not collapse the economy, just change the growth rate. Look to the O'bummer years to see what happens when growth stops in our economy, capitalism survived. We don't have to constantly grow in order to have a functioning economy, especially with the shrinking population.

[@Sandy-oy2lr]

Advantages of buying new: One can usually get at least 10% off the MSRP to help with initial depreciation for the first year, full factory warranties, no modifications or parts installed from a 'knows enough to be dangerous previous owner(s), you can do a 'proper' break-in to prevent the car from turning into a problem child for the rest of it's life, no snot/fecal material from the previous owner from previous owners, no abuse/racing from previous owner(s). And if the car is like a Toyota, Honda, Mazda, that stable period can last for years and tons of miles. Buying a used European vehicle is a super crapshoot. Repairs can go exponential due to plastic parts used in high temperature and stress areas. In that case, lease new. Wipe your hands free of it after the lease/warranty period, and walk away without spending any more $$.

[@DiscoFang]

Getting 10% off that initial sometimes 30% depreciation? That's still 20%. My dad had a saying "If you keep saving money at that rate you'll go broke." Lease? Do you seriously think leasing somehow gets you out of paying the standard equivalent ownership cost? Who do you think pays the lease company operating cost and profit? They are the experts in calculating that overhead PLUS the "crapshoot" you describe into the costs, that's their job. The leasee pays all - by the end of the period they've already spent those "more $$".

[@Sandy-oy2lr]

@@DiscoFang I agree. But, sometimes it depends. Like if only a limited number are built. Then getting any kind of a discount is a good thing. And, there are ways to save more. Like skipping the super expensive extended warrantees. And not ordering the $1500 decal package, etc. As well as getting a 2.99% loan that's also tax deductible....

[@iPervy]

Incredibly informative, Greg - also very concise and well spoken!

[@markusaurelius8807]

Greg, thanks for the useful info! I really like your channel and the way you host your videos. Interesting info, nice personality, calm voice and relaxed atmosphere overall make a great infotainment. It is awesome that you don't have this pushy approach as many vloggers have. This calmness, no-bs and a bit of 80s-vibe are your unique trademark, I would say. And the pony tail is cool, ignore the trolls. It is always a pleasure to watch your new videos. Keep it up and all the best!

[@HeCute_]

Great video, thanks. I’ve been trying to explain this to my mom, but you explained it much simpler than me! Will definitely show this to my mom who may buy a new car soon

[@sydmichel]

The case of the disappearing clock.

[@chupacabbra5606]

it was always 4:20. hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[@joesmith5026]

Well done with the information, first time I've ever seen car channel go through something like this. Thank you for your time..

[@williamstewart3469]

Always a good day when young Greg shares a new video. 😀

[@Alexvander10]

I love your videos. Easy to comprehend and listen to. Thanks!

[@masterphotog4131]

Thank you for a great video, keep up the good work!

[@RobertAnthonyMusic]

Nice channel Greg. This is the second video of yours that I have watched and have subscribed and hit the bell. Best of luck to your channel. You do a great job of teaching the concepts in your video. I look forward to studying more of your content.

[@mosesabimbola3060]

You've done an excellent job, a lesson that I cannot forget. God bless you

[@1Wolf2BLoved]

Excellent video, Greg. Valuable information and held my interest.🙂

[@Emperorsumo]

I just found your channel and it's like looking into a more experienced mirror. you really are a car angel.

[@dkgrace6743]

Great videos, well thought out. Thank you.

[@JamesParus]

Great video. Works as life lesson too.

[@odracircopa8]

Very simple and informative channel Thank you

[@korirjerioth2194]

This guy is the best teacher I've noted. Precisely. Plus the Toyotas endurance is truly great.

[@edwardmcclelland5519]

Excellent! I will definitely look to purchase my next car in the correct phase next time. Good lecture!

[@geoffoutdoors]

Awesome and Crucial video! Thanks for making this and posting it!

[@chanelletheobald6566]

Great video thanks. Love your videos, very informative.

[@JStan54]

Great explanation. Very well done!

[@thehumbleone1983]

I really enjoyed this video. Great explanation and graph!

[@SamPhappalapa]

As a Pontiac owner whose car failed in phase 1 and a Toyota owner approaching phase 3, this video is beautiful

[@rightlanehog3151]

I've got a Pontiac Vibe made by Toyota so my curve is nice and smooth ;)

[@TheKwod]

Did the dealer look after you?

[@nc3826]

@@rightlanehog3151 Incorrect NUMMI made the VIbe (a joint venture owned by GM and Toyota)

[@rightlanehog3151]

@@nc3826 You raise a good point. Did NUMMI make the Tacomas and Corollas that came out of the same plant? I ask because Toyota's products, like our 2010 Tacoma from the same factory, say made by Toyota. ;)

[@nc3826]

@@rightlanehog3151 You made a good point too. You can't always trust labels. :) It's just doesn't change the fact of who actually made it.

[@peterjohnson9687]

Thanks for the lesson; you taught well..

[@lynnpaustian6472]

Excellent explanation. I've been a used car buyer for over 30 years. I found new is not better. I've had good success with used rental cars. Contrary to popular opinion they do get regular service and the miles on the larger, premium vehicles are mostly highway miles.

[@underratedcritic1983]

Lynn Paustian I agree. My current and previous car are prior rental cars,

[@caseownage]

Bro, you snatched that clock from the intro faster than my old pal would snatch the spliff from our circle.

[@verygood7155]

Very informative. Thank you.

[@thinman8621]

Learned a lot. Thank you.

[@songkok7hitam]

Thanks Greg.

[@ramilamparo1668]

You are divine Mr. Macke!

[@CarolinaCarVideos]

Thank you Greg for all your videos. I've been in the car business since I was out of High School. This is really all I know. Just a few weeks ago I decided to stop working for New Car Dealerships and I took a sales position at a used car store. Needless to say we're selling Cheap Used Cars under $5000. I'm using my KZbin channel to sell cars and I'm trying my best to be transparent and show people the actual condition of the cars, but I still have much to learn. I believe your channel will be really helpful in my efforts of informing people about the cars I'm selling. I just want people to know what they're buying from me if its a good car or a lemon. Regards, Chad Dolbier

[@dadach1338]

Thank you Greg. This advice helped me choose a good car You taught me something bro.

[@chocolatewheelchair]

This is awesome. Appreciate it.

[@bladder1010]

This is an excellent explanation of what I have always suspected, but didn't realise there are substantive reasons behind my belief. Thanks very much!

[@slowclicker]

Great video ! I worked for DENSO as a manufacturing engineer in Aichi headquarter. And I was taught the.concept exactly as you are presenting in your video.

[@eman0828]

You guys must also pratice Deming's quality control teachings as hes the man behind Toyota's quality control. One of his 14 points was kaizen, "Continous Improvement". The Toyota Production System is based on Deming's 14 Points. Toyota was awarded the Deming Prize in 1965 and the Japan Quality Award in 1970s. Denso was also awarded the Deming Prize in 1961.

[@jeffb.6642]

Nice video with some great points that make a lot of sense. While it's true that potential problems are covered under warranty for the initial period, nobody wants to be hassled with frequent visits to the dealership to fix issues that you bought a new car hoping to avoid in the first place! And then there's the potential hassles that come up if the dealership doesn't want to honor the warranty because reasons

[@markreynolds3850]

Thanks for sharing, very information good video.

[@john1240able]

Good video thanks.

[@APprojection]

Great content, I was thinking of buying new, will think twice now. Thanks a lot and keep it up. Would love to see more statistics, comparisons covered, such as toyota example here. :)

[@doglegjake6788]

this is a exellent channel and a very good video thanks for sharing !!

[@Roudter]

Absolutely correct. Any product is practically Schrodinger's cat until you've used it a bit... A two year old car has a much better chance of going for a long time without problems...than a new car.....it's always been true... Very good! Thanks...

[@TENNSUMITSUMA]

you sure about that?! ill take a brand new car where i control the maintenance from day one over a 2 year old car where i don't know how many need for speed most wanted police evasions it's been in! 2 years is alot of time to red line engines and shift transmissions too soon.... or not soon enough!

[@murshedahmed5075]

Nice to know about the bathtub curve, great tips for car buyers.

[@kenfrank2730]

When I bought my new 2003 Toyota Tacoma the sweet spot began the day I drove it off the dealer's lot. After 19 years of daily use I've only replaced the radiator, water pump, sensor, and some belts. I love Toyota's sweet spot!

[@jb3757]

what a brilliant video this is, I'm IN.

[@MrUnbelievableAbs]

Love all your videos Greg. I appreciate you sharing your experience with us. Watching your videos I bought a 2004 Lexus RX330 with 110k for $5.5k last year. 20k miles later it is still perfect mechanically and inside. Hoping to find a good RX400h or RX450h soon, as my 2008 Accord is falling apart at 106k :( after changing the timing belt at 95k, the revs are all weird. Amazing that the 2004 Lexus is in so much better condition than my babied 2008 Accord. No comparison in the quality of leather.

[@ravitejamukkara9096]

good explanation about bathtub curve

[@markg117]

Excellent video Greg except for one thing. Used cars managers/salesmen must be watching your videos because used car prices in my neck of the woods are ridiculous! Made me go back to looking at new vehicles. Good Job!

[@boyracer3477]

mark g ...... These aren't normal economic times. It's just a time to sit tight with the car you have.

[@markg117]

@@boyracer3477 Good advice and I am going to follow it!!!!!!

[@devinwoodson1365]

@@boyracer3477sadly I need a better car so imma have to bite the bullet I don’t see things changing sooner than my car dying

[@boyracer3477]

@@devinwoodson1365 Then buy an older (10 year old plus) car with low mileage. They're out there.

[@hassanabdi2542]

Ohh i miss this guy, where u gone? Super informative video’s. We appreciate your knowledge of cars.

[@lwhowell4387]

You have an excellent way of teaching. We're still driving a 1992 Landcruiser with 247,000 miles on it. It needs drivers side seat cover and the hood could use some new paint. We still drive it every day. We plan to buy a new Toyota in the next few weeks. We've been waiting for the 2020's to come out. We are now reconsidering buying used vs new Landcruiser. Or perhaps a Forerunner. Thank you for this awesome video!

[@sarojinidevithambapillai9146]

Well said

[@SUB-Entertainment]

Thanks!!

[@magazineman3910]

SO TRUE!!

[@Sky92651]

Thanks

[@radusadventures]

Great video

[@badlandskid]

Excellent video.

[@tcniel]

Had to forward project what a navy missile system life extension project (equipment) would cost as a specification called for , kept coming up with outrageous costs until I used this bathtub curve, applied it got a reasonable real cost, finished the proposal, went to the pentagon to give a presentation, after which (one meeting) got the go ahead and the troops in the field were helped with an improved system delivered at a reasonable price all took place within 18 months start to finish, not the usual five years.

[@CarlosRodriguez-hb3vq]

There’s a difference between quality control (QC) and quality assurance (QA). Quality control implies checking quality after the fact, and poor quality usually seeps through QC. QA on the other hand is proactive, builds quality into engineering and manufacturing, and is what Toyota is actually famous for doing.

[@jnadaf]

Nailed It

[@RyanRusich]

Hey thanks Greg! Great video. I guess the only question is at what age does a vehicle enter the stable phase? Keep the videos coming, always a pleasure to watch. Ryan from Canada.

[@draxus1266]

Most likely depends if what brand it was and how reliability reports flows, isn't it? No exact answer?

[@dermotwallace5533]

Just after the 2nd year as he noted in the video's graph.

[@clear_gray_sky539]

Some customers of ours bought a very high end pre-manufactured home it’s on water front property it’s the nicest home in the neighborhood by far . When the builders brought the parts to the sight and set it up they didn’t realize it had mold in it . The government will not let them move anything into this brand new house and condemned it until the mold problem is corrected . They have been living in a motor home in the yard of their brand new house for over a month . They had to build a large garage and all their nice furniture and appliances have been sitting in the heat and humidity of this uninsulated Unair-conditioned building in Florida . It really points out what your saying about getting into the stable period. These people are very wealthy and bought a brand new house and can’t even live in it !

[@premswarooppaul1109]

Superb explanation. Very informative. Just makes sense to buy used car which is around 3 to 4 years old rather than pay more for brand new one.

[@carlhammill5774]

Your still paying out nose for car 3-4 years old. I found better approach is to identify cars that get to 300k + and get them when they are about 100k.

[@dibyendubhattacharjee8995]

thanks

[@butterflygardeniasboutique3623]

Thank you for such an useful content. What’s your opinion on buying a car that had 2 previous owners or more?

[@gneisskenan]

A real guru in this subject..with pen & board. Glad I found you videos.. God bless!

[@ericcarbonell9927]

Thanks for another informative video. I always have bought newer used cars unless my wife insists on a new one and have never been disappointed as long as I stick to the Japanese companies. Now I know why.

[@james11h]

Excellent series of videos. I don’t have the cash to buy a vehicle

[@carlosedwardos]

Greg, if you really do read the comments, then start a Patreon so that we can support your good work directly, which will greatly increase your income, which will allow you to work less and have more time to make great videos that help people. :) - Also, can you make a mod to your Paint Spy device that incorporates something soft on the tip, so that car owners are not afraid of me scratching their finish when I inspect a potential car to buy?

[@YourCarAngel]

I will add the Patreon soon. Regarding the Paint Spy we had tried many iterations with the soft tip concept as it was my original idea to incorporate that feature.. The original prototypes had many variations of this (Teflon, rubber, elasticized plastic, just to name a few). However after testing the magnet tip with those materials we were not able to engineer a coating that could withstand repeated processes without wearing thin and thus changing the reading on the pull out scale.

[@carlosedwardos]

how about just fake fur or micro-fiber towel material?

[@hagbard72]

0:16 Smoke'm of you gott'm. BTW, my Jeep Patriot went from phase 1 straight to 3. Total garbage. So when does the stable period begin and when does it end, and is it time or miles?

[@alecgrolimond1678]

I agree in principle. However, the sweet spot depends on the brand and even the model. The fact about depreciation also is true. So, going back to what I said the "sweet spot" depends on how the car was treated and you did not state for what brand. Yes, you mentioned Toyota but there are so many brands and different models. A car is not a toaster and even a toaster depends on how much it was used. Why do I buy new? It is a simple answer. I take care of my car and keep it a long time. It is a general hypothesis that you present that applies only in general.

[@TigreBrian]

Greg, a very interesting and mostly accurate portrayal of how "designing in quality" in the design stage (not trying to inspect quality in later!), following that through with meticulous manufacturing and assembly processes, leads to a long Stable Phase, and a long Life Cycle. But, you mentioned that the Japanese manufacturers, namely Toyota, perfected this process. And while it's true that they did execute this process, they did not invent or develop it. And the Toyota Quality System, is in fact a derivation of William Deming's (an American) Total Quality Management or TQM. Deming is credited as the founder of quality manufacturing in Japan; by the Japanese, and was awarded for doing so by the Japanese government! He did this in the Post Second World War period in the 1950's, and was actually brought to Japan to help in the reconstruction of that decimated country by none other than General Douglas MacArthur! Sadly, Deming DID try to help the US auto industry, but until the 1980's no one in the management of the US car companies was interested. They thought his ideas would cost too much to implement, and why should they, they were doing fine selling junk that barely made it to 100,000 miles, and gave the customers problems all the way there! They failed to see what is the general premise of Deming's work, which is that Higher Quality will lead to Lower Costs (due to higher productivity and lower rejection rates), Higher Profits (less warranty), increased market share, and more sales! The US car companies failed to realize that people WILL pay for quality, longevity, reliability, innovation, performance, higher resale, in other words VALUE! We are not the sheep the US car companies thought we were! So, if you are happy with your Lexus or Toyota today, you can thank a mostly unknown (by people outside of manufacturing) American, William Deming for it! I've been in manufacturing since 1977, and still use his methods and philosophy today! I recommend that anyone interested in Quality, in any process, read about Deming, and in fact another great American Walter Shewhart, who's work on Statistical Process Control Deming base some of his methods on. It's not that we can't build quality products, heck, we practically invented the methods of Quality Manufacturing here in the US; it was the old mentality and short term greed mentality of the management of our companies which stopped us from putting the "best practices" which were know by them, into practice. Sad...

[@chien-shengtsai8626]

Deming was not appreciated by his own countrymen, but worshiped by the Japanese.

[@TigreBrian]

Exactly! Imagine if the US automakers had listened and implemented his philosophy. Where would they be today, and what would we be driving! Deeming was a national treasure, just not in his own nation!

[@brucebender6659]

TQM (total quality management) was invented and popularized mostly by Deming. Toyota's instigation of it is probably the most famous. The various '"ISO 9001" and other ISO tests and standards are probably the most influential. And I dunno why, but he seems to have referred to himself as W. Edwards Deming rather than William.

[@jorgeignacioiparraguirreal7482]

Thanks for the info Greg, I have a 2006 Toyota Yaris, just bought it a couple of months, I live in Peru, almost inmediately had to fix a couple of problems with the oil pressure system, after that the car works great, sounds like I am in the sweetspot, what´s your opinion on toyota yaris? and what about a record of the lifetime of this model?

[@rajabidisaid3934]

great car info

[@solentbum]

The bathtub curve for my L/R Discovery was based on costs per mile, a simple division of costs over mileage. The first miles cost pounds, by the end of its life it was costing pennies per mile. The trick for me was to find the point at which the cost per mile started to rise and then put it up for sale. Some other person brought the problems. As it turned out the stable phase lasted 19 years.

[@clayton4115]

737Max is a good example to use for this.

[@za-jm8wf]

Thanks to your videos I recently purchased a 05 prius and a 06 hylander hybrid for a combined price of $10.5k. I hope to have them for 10 years.

[@eman0828]

Hoped you saved your self another $7,000 for two new battery pack replacements as you are going to regret buying a used Hybrid car thats over 10 years old, otherwised you just got fucked. Those battery packs statically has been lasting around 10-13 years requardless of how many miles. I work on Hybrid vechicles all the time as i see those battery packs fail all the time that are over 10 years old. Don't expect to drive those 12-13 Hybrids for another 10 years without a new battery replacement from the dealer.

[@richardcheatham9490]

Enjoying all of these videos. By following you and mechanic Scotty Kilmer, also on YT, I've settled on a Toyota over the Hondas I've had for decades now. Particularly the Sienna over the Odyssey. Didn't know that the transmissions of the latter were habitually faulty. I do now.

[@mer3yy]

With the economic challenging nowdays I think many cars manufactures does not spent a lot on quality improvement (including Toyota) more cars sharing same parts (including main components like engine) and they all take from suppliers in term to reduce costs , so I think manufactures will facing different challenging comparing to last decades Thank you for good explanation

[@LakshmananLM]

It's still okay if your supplier is Denso, Stanley, Koito etc. TPS..

[@benedictddaisog]

Nice video. Planning to buy a used car.

[@ding174]

My son looked long and hard for his first car that he saved up for. First he watched this video. Then got his heart set on a 2000 4runner for fair price and west coast use only. After a year he found one in the model and color he wanted just above his budgeted price range. As a bonus it had 115,000 on the clock with ALL service records from the dealerships through three owners. Most if not all parts that had reached their end of service life were replaced at the dealership as well as regular maintenance. He got lucky. He was the only test driver along with me, his dad who is a Toyota fan for life (TFFL). Our city was put on corona virus lockdown (Las Vegas) and the owner was about to get laid off from a well paying job and his wife was due to deliver their third kid. My kid bought it for thousands less than the original asking price. We knew that the bathtub stable period on this truck was extended way past the end of service life due to meticulous maintenance. Thank you for your video which made my son a smarter and wiser consumer. He is only 26 and is convinced he will never buy a new car. And he will never buy any other brand other than a Toyota or Lexus. Me too, that’s why I own a 2010 fj cruiser I bought used in 2017 with 87,000 miles for about 21k.

[@securemaple3703]

Could anyone please say what's the sweet spot for land cruiser prado? Is it a wide bath tub?? I'm thinking of buying one from 10 years old, upto 18 years old Japanese import. TIA

[@SyedMansoor1974]

Very good explanation which is far better than the overpriced and hyped professors, you have provided all the vital in-depth technical explanation in a very simple way Thanks for all your efforts in publishing such useful information to the general public

[@RiaSwiftHealing]

You didn't mention how many years for a car to get to that sweet spot. Great piece of information. Thanks!

[@kieranlangley3092]

nice vid ty

[@brucesheehe6305]

Good Video!

[@anonymike8280]

It's cosmological. Sweet spot = main sequence!

[@nc3826]

Greg (or anyone else): Here is a follow up conjecture to the Bathtub Curve: While used cars have consistently been the lower cost option vs new in the past..... But could AVs change that paradigm? For example if there was a choice between a used GM Bolt or a new AV version of the GM Bolt, that could be used as part of a ride sharing network for the owner. So could the far more costly AV a better value? I know this like "comparing apples to oranges" but new models come with new feature and capabilities so this has always an issue with the new vs used conundrum. It's just more relevant at this inflection point. And thx for the Bathtub Curve, it is a reminder, not to assume things on face value and to thinking them thru. Such as new items being assumed to be defect free. Since its cost prohibitive in most cases to test each item (which just seems like common sense but isn't that common I guess?). So a warranty is the next best option (ie marketing tool used by Hyundai). And I do question if both sides of the walls of the Bathtub are really equal and symmetrical? And you did fail to mention that early adopters will accept lower initial reliability in exchange for having the latest design and tech ie the Tesla effect. BTW-You did go "off the rails" with your light bulb longevity conspiracy theory, that was just plain "wrong". Since the incandescent bulb that is claimed (no documented proof but lets assume its correct) to be in use since 1901 isn't a special long lasting version but was a standard bulb made by the Shelby Electric Co. of Ohio. General consensus in wikipedia is it lasted so long since it wasn't being turned on and off (except a few times) and had nothing to do with a special type of construction. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longest-lasting_light_bulbs.... Not to mention it was based on just 1 example. so it was statistically insignificant even if it would have been true...But conspiracy theories are more fun than reality...So sorry to bursting your bubble (bulb)... Even if what you said would have been true, there a many other factors than just longevity that matter to a consumer of a bulb. Such as its energy efficiency, so a fluorescent bulb could have been a better choice just 2 yrs later in 1903. Not mention currently like the LED bulbs I got from china 5 yrs ago even with one failing in the 1st month... Thank again, its surprising the time invested by academia on matters that just seem like common sense. But it interesting how math is used to create graphs to models what is happening... Just be careful when extrapolating based on those limited models... BTW I do have dyslexia and tried to clean it up of any grammatical mistakes, so hope I it's comprehensible...And pls excuse the length of my response...I kept inadvertently adding tangential comments...

[@pirihern9329]

Great explanation and to the point.I have a toyota , honda,and subaru. Most reliable in my experience is the toyota then honda . The subaru not even close although I have a 2006 sti which I do all maintenance and repairs on including evap emission issues which I think are quite common on subarus. Po442,456,448 etc. Just purchased an evap smoke machine to do my own repairs. Repair shops want 1 hr and up laber times for smoking which is about 100 dollars an hr.

[@carter2556]

Interesting...are you saying the sweet spot is like take over lease car? How many milleages your’talking about at first enter sweet spot and exit sweet spot roughly? Thank you for sharing

[@cuervoblanco71]

It is exactly how Soviet TV set works. First 6 month called "honey moon" period with lots of failed components. Than for 20+ years no issues at all. At this point plastic panels knobs start to shrink. Dust fills in circuit boards with potential overheating problems.

[@firebir11]

251,763 miles jeep and lifetime power train warranty, I call it flatlining. Very good presentation.