Elisabeth Braw - Could Floating Bombs Become Putin's Next Weapon of Mass Intimidation Against West?

[@johnwilliams2660]

If that vessel was willing to land in Lithuania, why couldn't it dock at St Petersburg?

[@hrvojesvetec3058]

For Gods sake..you are STILL REFUSING to understand Russia..you MUST play hard ball and make it TOTALY 100% WITH NO DOUBT sure that they "get the message"..show strenght,force,power!!.thats ALL they respect and understand..so sick of our Western "experts" and leaders.

[@Kassandra_ghost]

Agree 100% !!

[@stevenjohns-savage7024]

Aarrgghh😋. Don't want to embarrass Ruskies lil Pecker. He knows he's out matched 😑

[@jimsveta4417]

Obviously something that we are not being told. Even the majority of American fully support Ukraine (according to polls), yet you wouldn't believe it listening to the government bodies.

[@fredfred2363]

It's not that simple. Putin needs to stay in power to avoid Russia breaking up in vassal states- all independently armed with nucs. Lots of different mafia gangs... And at the same time, Putin needs to back down (something a "strong" Russian leader will never do), returning Ukraine's land to Ukraine. I think it's a waiting game until the economy collapses from within, leading Putin no option but to pull out (not quit), at the same time as saying that was a warning lesson for NATO... Tricky.

[@jimsveta4417]

@@fredfred2363 yes, that was 1991 and in my opinion nothing has changed. I am not an American, nor a trump supporter. BUT everything from the entrance of China to the WTO onward has done very little for Jack and Jill Citizen. Why are the same arguments being used today as yesterday, didn't work then, what is different now.

[@benkinsey-jones1760]

So if that amount is too much for any port, why was it allowed to be loaded with so much and how was the original destination port planning on taking it?

[@robm.4512]

I think that the issue, with it being refused entry into any of the ports that it has attempted to make it’s temporary destination for repairs, is that they’ve all been adjacent to either ecologically sensitive areas or to places that have considerable infrastructure and significant population that would be threatened by its proximity. It’s original destination port may well have been somewhere with an offloading facility far from any significant population centre, in an African or Middle Eastern, possibly even Chinese, country or province where limitations on bulk quantity of hazardous materials are less stringent. The other issue is that the nature of the repairs that it requires may very well present an increased risk of the cargo being exposed to heat, spark or direct flame, such as if it requires welding on any part of the hull, deck or superstructure, or repair of one or more of its electrical systems. Either way, whether it’s 20,000 tonnes or 20 tonnes, it ought to be offloaded and it’s holds cleaned of cargo residue before any work is carried out by contractors.

[@jdgo3483]

Have you researched the fertilizer explosion in the government-owned Port of Beirut that happened in 2020? The history of the MV Rhosus that was abandoned in Beirut is pretty much the same as what is unfolding now.

[@robm.4512]

@@jdgo3483 The Ruby is able to offload the bagged cargo to barges for onward transport to shore using her 3 deck cranes. That is how she is intended to be offloaded in normal operations anyway. She needs to be dry-docked to effect the required repairs to her rudder and propeller and that will require offloading before she can go in. Dry-docking has to be done with the vessel empty anyway to prevent damage to both the vessel and the dock floor from excessive loads. Because her cargo is not bulk loose product and is divided between 6 discrete holds the situation is not really all that akin to the Beirut incident, where it was essentially all in one big heap getting baked in a warehouse. Fyi, using the standard maritime tools for assessing hazardous cargo risks and required exclusion zones, taking into consideration the separation of the cargo into discrete holds, the projected blast radius where significant damage might be expected to occur is circa 1.6 km. The Ruby is securely anchored on good holding ground at a distance of 3.2 km from the nearest shoreline, double the distance required by international shipping regulations for safety. It’s honestly a bit of a “shock, horror, probe…” bit of news reporting.

[@robsharber2004]

Why doesn't it go back to sender? Kinda really suspicious. Just like Trump's love for Putin.

[@deanejoyce5393]

Because the cargo can be owned and have no destination. This is typically done in a “ voyage charter” so the owner of the cargo can take advantage of spot price markets for the cargo, e.g. sweet crude oil used for refining light fraction fuels

[@polarizingbrute]

Trump is far from a Putin lover - and you librards not understanding that and instead blindly following some wh*re is why u cannot be taken seriously

[@gavinmckee9211]

Fantastic insightful giest and episode. Thank you both. Slava Ukraini! Until.victory.

[@lordj805]

Are you peoples forgetting that Russia, recently steamed out of port an naval destroyer, to engage and fire very close warning shots an an Danish fishing boat that had every right to be fishing in the world recognised Danish economic waters. Only a day or Two before this fertilizer ship debacle. Denmark have grown a pair, good on them.

[@kim-ys2fs]

i heard same story, diff country -either finland or norway

[@H3LLS3NT4SS4SS1N]

How is this Denmark having “grown a pair?” Seems to me more like they’ve lost their “pair.”

[@danielmcinnes20]

Excellent video as always!! Thank you Johnathan!!!! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!!!!

[@POKROVSKPODCAST]

You stated that we are dealing "with 7 times more" (than Lebanon) but there are nuances. At the 3:05 min mark Mrs Braw states, "...this ship left the Ruzzian ports, carrying, as you say, 20,000 pounds..." It was 20,000 tonnes not pounds. 20,000 pounds is about 9,000 tonnes. The 20,000 tonnes is in 5 holds, separated by steel bulkheads. The power of the fertiliser is less than half of the power of TNT, it would not even yield 10 kilotons if it all blew at once, which is can't because it's in 5 separate holds.

[@SiliconCurtain]

That was misspeaking- it’s tonnes

[@peterturchyn8685]

Why couldn't Ruby dock in Kaliningrad?

[@PaulDenison-r7r]

@peterturchyn8685 The Danes won't let it go through.

[@troelspeterroland6998]

The Danish authorities had no other choice than letting it through because it is international waters based on a treaty from 1857, and they were a bit on the edge since it appeared to be on its way to either Kaliningrad or St Petersburg. But then it turned around for unknown reasons and set course past Britain.

[@lisbethmllegaard8437]

Not welcome through Øresund!

[@PaulDenison-r7r]

@@troelspeterroland6998 Yes it developed a habit of parking up in military and economic strategic areas before parking up just outside of the Thames estuary. Should be towed to Murmansk.

[@hughjazz64]

A few months ago I heard a report about a low profile debate about using the EU environmental law to ban Russian cargo going via Baltic states. It would affect Russia’s economy real bad but the foreign lobby in the US nipped the idea in the bud

[@kcgeil]

Has to go before it comes within a couple of miles of the coast. Seems like a job the SBS were made for.

[@blucheer8743]

Britain seems to be going through a strange period where no one seems to be in charge very strange and very dangerous

[@eamonnclabby7067]

More i ineptitude from the Empire of ineptitude and Kleptocracy....

[@gerryhouska2859]

Never discount their malevolence. Drake defeated the Spanish Armada with fireships, poo tin may try the same.

[@lordj805]

Russia only understands one language, strength. Any other response from any nation other than a strong one, will be seen as an weakness and capitalised on. Therefore there is only one way initially to deal with this ship; send in the SBS, in the dead of night to board the ship, surprise and capture the crew, and study all the ships loge including communication logs, to find out the truth of the situation. If it's found that the crew are truthful and it's all just a host of unfortunate events, gently tow the ship with tugs to an qualified port to unload it, distribute the fertiliser to reputable farms, help with ship repairs, compensate Russia for the fertilizer, stating it was to big an risk for us to leave it there, and send the crew on their merry way with the ship. If however the SBS do indeed find nefarious intentions, Immediately turn off the ships transponder, remove and imprison the crew, gently tow the ship out to the mid Atlantic and once the tugs have well cleared off, have an UK navy submarine from distance torpedo the thing, then tell Putin we know what you are up to and here is where it got you. The only issue we in the UK have, is we have not had an Prime minister since Churchill and Thatcher, with the B.ll.cks to make such an active decision. So we seem weak, and Russia with capitalize on this with ever more daring and imaginative way's to threaten the UK.

[@farang_lao]

Doesn't want to go anywhere near the Montgomery wreck 👀

[@clivestainlesssteelwomble7665]

Yes that would be worse than Ironic... I would have a military escort stationed in the estuary mouth. I would certainly not have let it into the English channel navigation area.

[@clivestainlesssteelwomble7665]

Mongolia is surrounded by China and Russia... so stuck between a rock and a hard place.

[@farang_lao]

@@clivestainlesssteelwomble7665 totally agree given Putin's record with coincidental catastrophic events

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

@@farang_lao And China, in the US.

[@danielmcinnes20]

Excellent Guest!!! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!!!

[@Giovanna-d7s]

Grazie.

[@dka618]

To reduce Putin support, it is important to remain strong and all governments to confirm that no land from Ukraine will be given to Putin. None, zero, zip. This will create strong doubts amid the russian leaders who supported Putin.

[@nealolson8814]

What's the chance of a random lightning strike causing a fire/explosion in a storm tossed and poorly maintained cargo of ammonium nitrate?

[@Luisterralusa]

Very very high

[@Lawrence-lj5jz]

A realistic assessment of the likelihood would be to realize that ammonia nitrate is an extremely common fertilizer and ask how often has that scenario happened before? Using a storm as a guise to ignite an explosion probably also wouldn't work as both ships and lightning strikes are tracked by satellites. So barring Russia having developed time travel a la Back to the Future, I'm not worried. But, interesting question.

[@mvjh2277]

42:39 AP report 19 June this year that Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier sunk by Houthis in Red Sea.

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

Iran stole how many shipe in the last years, and the houties sunk how many? WGOW Shipping channel covers pretty much all of them in detail, and the shadow fleets. And the ships with convenient "technical issues" that led to, or were near missing, critical or catastrophic consequences in the US and elsewhere. Hybrid warfare is, in essence, quite varied.

[@brianpreval5602]

The 'shadow fleet' could be stopped but no one has bothered to do anything about them , which is shameful

[@tamarasidlartchouk3138]

It’s classic orc’s modus operandi … 💙💛

[@eamonnclabby7067]

Yes indeed.....

[@tamarasidlartchouk3138]

@@eamonnclabby7067 😘

[@J.Carlos74]

Kremlin is a sad circus.

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

@@J.Carlos74 CCP as well. Remember the "Baltimore Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse", a very preventable "incident" by a not seaworthy vessel owned and operated by CCP companies. Last inspection of the Dali, the vessel's name, was performed in... let me check... ah, Shanghai... hmmm. Other occurrences as of late doesn't let me trust into coincidences; more into a "glide ship" that "fortuitously" lost power with the required energy, at the exact right time, and a sort of issue unrecoverable by the pilot at the time.

[@lorenagonzalez71]

the gremlin at the kremlin btrd.

[@JohnGeorgeBauerBuis]

Sal Mercogliano (What Is Going on With Shipping?) is someone who can speak authoritatively about the Red Sea situation.

[@johncromwell2529]

Thanks all! 👏🙏👍🇺🇦💪

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

My westerner glasses broke long ago. I'm now cursed in my own land, surrounded by ostriches. It's exhausting!

[@artfx9]

He'll float too.

[@Luisterralusa]

Why not to send it to Brazil is a BRICs country and they used to buy fertilizers from Russia

[@kentonian]

That might be where it was meant to be going but does not want to risk deep sea with damage

[@MacleodPeter]

Ammonium Nitrate is the oxidizer. It is not explosive without a fuel. For example ammonium nitrate is mixed with fuel oil to make mining explosive. For the explosion in Beirut the ammonium nitrate must have mixed with a fuel probably due to careless handling

[@rockbutcher]

IMHO this whole thing has been blown way out of proportion, pun intended. AN is shipped around the world daily. Truckloads of it move through most communities on their ways to farms during the spring and fall. There are many different grades of AN, and it's all about the N. Not only for farming but also for blasting. Not all AN fertilizer is high N. You need high N for things like tropical crops, figs etc., low N works just fine for grains. High N content AN can be blended to create the stuff we use in mining. TLDR: UK, get a team on board that ship and have them take a whiff of the holds. If they smell fuel oil in the fertilizer, pull the crew and tow it to the deep sea. Then use it for target practice.

[@warhorse03826]

exactly. too much sensationalism not enough data.

[@henriikkak2091]

I don't find it funny, recalling what happened in Lebanon

[@marymoloney5784]

Not in fishing grounds. The sea is an ecosystem too and these chemicals will get into the maretime food chains

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

Let's downplay this just enough so you can, later, come back and laugh and laugh at how this was so predictable... naaa. Try again.

[@marymoloney5784]

@@PandemoniumMeltDown nah

[@MrBudgiejoe]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦💪

[@markmongan]

So shady indeed. Ammonia nitrate as a fire ship, pretty shit plan!

[@2.Cuzzzz]

Environmental issues? That has nothing to do with it. It's not like the Allies during World War II were worried about the environmental damages after dropping the bombs. This is a national security risk! if anything.

[@DownhillAllTheWay]

This ship is in the Channel, and the other side of the channel is France. What is France saying about it?

[@terryhand]

I live in Whitstable, just along the coast from Margate. Not a great prospect! Even if the mainland were to excape the effects of an explosion there is a huge wind farm in the North sea that supplies electricity to much of East Kent.

[@linagervacio392]

If it is damaged, and unwelcomed, why not go back home? If it had gone home from the beginning or it's troubles, the damage would have been repaired already.

[@shermoore1693]

Can international maritime law be changed? Can the UN intervene?

[@WalterBurton]

I wonder if that ship knows how famous it is.

[@timmommens901]

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦✌🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

[@kim-ys2fs]

an excellent deep dive!

[@nickwinn7812]

There are thousands of these ships transporting ammonium nitrate around the world on a daily basis. It made a good story for the paranoid and gullible, but it was simply a badly run ship in mechanical difficulties. It wasn't a deliberate Russian threat and indeed did not pose a threat to the UK. All of the bluster and bullshit around this episode may have given the Kremlin ideas, so if they were to do this deliberately in the future we could blame it squarely on the hysterical British media.

[@Ellirius]

EU - let's put restrictions on ourselves and then try to figure out the way around them🤦

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

Renewables rely on lots of parts made in China... another curse we'll have to break. Motors mainly. Even our power generators are now made in China, Cummins exported their production main office in Shanghai... was such a great brand, they broke the security of supply chain in the name of profit.

[@EU_values]

👍👍👍

[@bakedbean37]

Sal's "What's Going On With Shipping" channel has put out a video on the situation with that ship. kzbin.info/www/bejne/qnarXqyPYrOGgLs A sober assessment from a maritime expert. I thought it might be of interest to the community. Thanks as ever Jonathan for another great guest.

[@moon_knight8578]

it's a stupid way to intimidate anyone (but they invaded Ukraine and that's worked out so well to date) says they've lack of options to me.

[@golokavrndavana]

Interesting thought about the nord stream..

[@jojosmumdorothy2829]

I live near it scares me

[@Yourdadselllsavon]

What about the warehouses full of the stuff … just scare mongers and drinking way too many free coffee

[@jdgo3483]

What about the warehouse full of the stuff that exploded in the government-owned Port of Beirut? Research the background and you will find the story of the shipping pretty much similar to what is happening now.

[@sairlordmusic]

"20,000 pounds" what do you mean thats a small amount ??? That's only 9000kg?

[@SiliconCurtain]

That was misspeaking- it’s 20,000 tonnes

[@catherinemeakes9234]

Where are the crew????

[@DarkestAlice]

Thank you, Jonathan and Elisabeth Braw, for another excellent exchange. Very much appreciated. 🇺🇦 Перемоги та миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦

[@jimgraham6722]

Pity the RN is a mere shadow of its former self.

[@deanejoyce5393]

A point of international law, Denmark, Sweden and Norway can enact the belligerent right to declare and enforce an international maritime instrument called a “ blockade” [2.2.1.1 Belligerent Acts at Sea Part 5 “THE COMMANDER’S HANDBOOK ON THE LAW OF NAVAL OPERATIONS EDITION MARCH 2022” of which each NATO nation has an equivalent tomb] because their countries form the Danish Straits. In the enactment of this instrument they simply state that the ships being blockaded are vessels of unknown or indeterminate origin or nationality… ergo not of any nation which gray fleet ships are…. If the gray fleet ship flies a flag then it becomes indeterminate, and you may still blockade it. If the Russian navy decides to escort these vessels then they are claiming ownership and then said vessel’s cargo is subject to sanctions that can be exercised at its destination… Why is this useful? It’s legal and It keeps the Russian Navy busy and out of mischief and identifies each ship as subject to sanctions. 😁 hope that is useful

[@gerryhouska2859]

I can never know what's in the mind of a rabid dog. Above all, I fear poo tin's osculation - a revolting thought.

[@RobertHughes-sv2mx]

Yet no one did anything about Ukrainian ships, where was this maritime law.. The Ukrainians took care of it in the only language the ruscists understand....

[@TheLucidscreamz]

our sea baby contract with ukraine has got artic covered like black sea,this ship just needs to be held in custody whilst awaiting repacement vessel, hold cargo securely on land and bill the company ,

[@henriikkak2091]

But will they pay? The cargo that exploded in Beirut was abandoned because even the Russian crew wasn't being paid

[@marymoloney5784]

​@@PandemoniumMeltDownthe ship is not shadow fleet

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

@@marymoloney5784 Darn! So they did that, like China, using legit ships and make them disabled and inherently dangerously weaponized... interesting.

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

@@marymoloney5784 I'll go bake cupcakes, I've been coomenting way too much today...

[@H3LLS3NT4SS4SS1N]

Third lady is just ranting and ranting about how naval blockades are impossible, while doing her very best to avoid saying those exact words, because that would make it patently obvious how asinine her point is. Of course naval blockades are legally and practically feasible-history proves this ad nauseam. ESPECIALLY when you consider that this is wartime, Russia is the chief instigating belligerent of said war, AND the US and UK are legally obligated under the treaty signed by Russia, Ukraine, the US and UK (after Ukraine relinquished the nukes it inherited after the fall of the USSR) to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, who is obviously the other party in the war relevant to a potential naval blockade.

[@lisbethmllegaard8437]

Why isn’t Dora ordred to return to where she came from?

[@gaudin5573]

Eggcetera :)

[@joephysics5469]

Several countries export ammonium nitrate on ships. This is nothing new. There is usually at least one or more ships at sea carrying this cargo in large quantities. This ship is not drifting. It is anchored in international waters. There are much more hazardous cargos shipped around the planet every day. This ship needs a port to unload its cargo so it can get into a dry dock and have repairs made. The real story here is that the western countries are not allowing a damaged ship carrying Russian cargo into their ports because it is Russian.

[@MarkBird-l9d]

Are people stuid. The issue is the ship got damaged in a storm. It needs to be repaired somrwhere. Its cargo is ordinary. Its source is irrelevant. As is the atlantic council as a sensible source. The issue is how to repair or transfer its cargo

[@lordj805]

You have together lost me on this. of course caring about the environment is an important thing, but, stopping all plastics, straws, carrier bags or anything else in the UK, will not make an jot of difference, because, the UK is something like 0.01% of the land mass of this planet. Now take in the entire continents of Russia, Chine, Africa, South America, that is already most of the populated land mass of the world. Does anyone think that charging for an plastic bag in the UK, is going to make an jot of difference to protect the planet in the first place. Sorry, unless these entire continents will do the same. Our planet may have a dire fate.

[@joenunez8507]

Putin’s use of international water? Stop pretending you’re ( USA) of being the “ world policeman “, we’re the world’s laughing stock🎉😂

[@marklawko7319]

deny the evil mr. trump.

[@Catfordprepper665]

Hard ball is nukes to Taiwan but say who knows where they got the technology. Similar with Ukraine and Georgia (if they man up). Otherwise, placate because as is, expect Poseidon (which has plausible deniability). U.K is a side kick!

[@danwall9301]

Nothing useful here. She should just write another book.

[@hubbellelectric6105]

When will U hold elections????? The U.S. held elections in every war including the Civil War ....

[@ugli88]

Were drones and missiles and glide bombs raining down on US cities when they went to the polls? Smarten up please.

[@Lawrence-lj5jz]

False equivalence. The USA has never been invaded by a neighboring country that is five times its population. Simply put, the USA has never been in the state of peril that Ukraine has been thrust into.

[@slavenaljinovic1162]

Endless BS as usual.

[@MrBudgiejoe]

Russian bot alert ‼️

[@slavenaljinovic1162]

@@MrBudgiejoe Klingonian BOT actually.

[@henriikkak2091]

Come on, which part of reality do you object to and why?

[@Luisterralusa]

Come on Ivan wake up

[@petergreenwood7731]

BRICS+ -- Keep ignoring it A new multi-polar world is emerging Kazan -- Oct 22-24 It's amazing how the western channels talk about geopolitics without giving BRICS+ any respect

[@rockbutcher]

The rest of the world can't hold their breath waiting because we are too busy laughing at you.

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

Respect is deserved. BRINKCS isn't entitled to it. Do you feel entitled?

[@jimsveta4417]

Gotta keep repeating myself. Look at the dxy index from the beginning, do you see the USD collapse? What is the black market value of the USD in russia, it isn't 100 to 1. Same with many other countries. So you understand, just because Times of India says that BRICS is taking over, doesn't make it so. May also be good to check just what the value of USD transactions are vs all other. I am sure there is a KZbin on it.

[@mccloryjim]

When was the Russian or Indian currency ever sort after? " collective west " will always be at the top , just deal with it, ffs 😂

[@PandemoniumMeltDown]

@@mccloryjim I sought to gain Rubble toilet paper... the exchange rate per wipe is a bit of a rip off, considering it's poor quality, yet still feels like smooth silk when I think about it. I'm now trying to secure a roll of khuylo faced to perform the same hygiene task and wipe the Xit from my maintenance port; any idea where I could get some of this furry Poo animal toilet filling scrubbing device?

[@danielmcinnes20]

Excellent Guest!!! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!!!

[@WalterBurton]

👍👍👍

[@danielmcinnes20]

Excellent Guest!!! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦!!!