Sorcery TCG News - October 09th, 2024: The True Pull Rate of Uniques

[@wizardsden666]

As some pointed out, I was keep saying "15" sub-tier uniques but it is supposed to be 16! Sorry, don't know where I mixed that up lol

[@TCGSociety]

You’re the man, Haine! Love the data points and updates - you nailed it from the beginning haha we never doubted you

[@MorningJacket]

Commenting here for the Algo, but I must say this is really some of the best Sorcery content out there. It strikes a wonderful balance between being informative and entertaining. Keep up the great work!

[@wizardsden666]

Good to hear it was entertaining! That part always worries me lol

[@ajronmejden]

I came here to say two things: 1. Haine, your analysis is very appreciated. Thanks so much for putting so much work into your videos and sharing your knowledge and passion with us! 🙏 2. I can absolutely recommend CFH as your source of singles. Steve (owner of the company) is an upstanding guy and dealing with him is a true pleasure 🙂

[@wizardsden666]

Thanks! I have bought lots of cards from CFH in the past!

[@teferitoots8043]

I know small data does not have much value, but in case you wanted to know: I pulled 4 "Unique Uniques" in my 1 box (Merlin, King Arthur, Mesmerism, and Fail-not Bow ). I pulled 6 of the "Unique Elites" SIRs (Priamus, Gawain, Lamorak, Agravaine, Tristan, and Ironside ).

[@mattstrott753]

As a guy who makes a living as an artist, your math and science skills are indeed wizard like! I greatly appreciate your skills and kindness in educating us dummies. 😄 Thanks, Haine!

[@michaelpeter3392]

This is great. Amazing work! Thank you 🙂

[@jdj-sapphire]

Fantastic analysis! I just pulled my first Wizard’s Den in my 5th box of Arthurian Legends!!

[@wizardsden666]

Cool! I want to pull a foil version!

[@jdj-sapphire]

@@wizardsden666 I just pulled my first foil Wizard’s Den today (after I ordered 2 copies from TCGPlayer!) so now I have 3. Still need to find the curio version.

[@harnakshadowclaw5964]

Thanks so much for your efforts! Really love the math analysis, keep up the great work!

[@lholo]

Great video and analysis Haine! Always appreciate your videos!

[@mikepelli]

Thank you Haine, Great video! Would be awesome to extend this analysis to foils.

[@wizardsden666]

Trying to get data now!

[@kelvinlin7057]

Great vid as always! Cant wait to get my 3 boxes next week

[@goat2601]

To add a relatively small sample of 23 boxes, I had 102 true uniques, just slightly under EV at 1 in 5.41. Thanks for your analysis!

[@wizardsden666]

Thanks for verification! Looks accurate!

[@seanscollection]

Great maths apart from the slide that shows a list of 16 unique subtier cards at elite rarity but prefixes list saying 15 cards! The later slide showing 56 proper uniques and 15 elite uniques should probably be changed to 55 real uniques and 16 elite uniques as well. :D

[@wizardsden666]

Yeah, I put that up on the comments to notify!

[@captainblackjon]

Absolutely excellent video!

[@lektorplov]

Great video, I really appreciate the data analysis.

[@Ookie1776]

Great vids man

[@urbano999]

You are the best Sorcery content creator. Thanks for the data. We all suspected some Sirs were actually elite rarity and were only uniques for gameplay. But the community has another doubt concerning gilded cards and curios. Do we have data on this to finally know if gilded cards are indeed NOT curios and are in reality a different set of chase cards with a lower rariry than true curios?

[@wizardsden666]

No data whatsoever for curios. It's extremely hard to get a statistically valid data on such small sample size.

[@alexgi1107]

Was already wondering why I was opening similar amounts of elite vs uniques.

[@_D__C_]

Thanks Haine!

[@Leroyantithesis]

I think one of my issues here with the packs is what you mention at the end. These packs were designed specifically for a draft/limited experience and that’s not something I really expected at this price point. One of my concerns are which cards are duplicated and what utility they might serve in deckbuilding. So after 2 boxes I had 37 threshold minions and 17 generic knights. That doesn’t seem like an even distribution of the ordinary and exceptional cards… they weighted them heavily for the draft experience to support this theme. That significantly devalues the experience for me because after the first box it isn’t 24 packs anymore… it’s 21 and that’s kind of nuts to me that they didn’t give an even distribution in favor of the drafting for a game that to be honest isn’t carried in allot of stores yet. I think people may be misunderstanding and misusing “clumping”. My issue is this issue and they very much intended the set to be this way. The uniques themselves is a seperate issue that also is a bit messy… I’ll just say I eventually opened 3 boxes and I didn’t get the 1 in 5.3 but I know that is possible and also unlikely as well. That doesn’t concern me nearly as much as the design of the packs. Knowing what I know now. I will open 1 next time around and then go straight to singles…

[@wizardsden666]

That's a fair take regarding the draft centric design. It is far more difficult to making a constructed deck with a few box especially without precons for this set.

[@Leroyantithesis]

@@wizardsden666 m.kzbin.info/www/bejne/nobPZ6mQg56KmMU&pp=ygUYQ29sZCBmb2lsIGhlcm9lcyBzb3JjZXJ5

[@Leroyantithesis]

@@wizardsden666 have you seen this? This is an interesting observation that there may be a lack of randomization box to box and suggests they may be alphabetical selection here. A large sample size would not necessarily capture the card types. If something like that is true and a person just got a box from the wrong part of the alphabet then the box is just going to be a bad box. I’m wondering if you think that might be true? It does make some sense if they pulled from a spreadsheet to run codes to over select certain cards for the draft algorithms and the master list was alphabetical… and it was itself never randomized. Perhaps I’m misunderstanding. Thoughts?

[@TedsBasementPodcast]

Great work! You create top tier content! What are your thoughts for box count for optimal set completion. Factoring a reasonable degree of trading / selling duplicates to purchase a small number of unique at the end so that you don't have to literally open every card to make your complete set? Let's say, if I was willing to buy 10 unique (or trade my duplicates for them), how many boxes gets a person that close to a complete set?

[@wizardsden666]

I don't know your criteria for "optimum" is, but if it's regarding cost, opening 0 box and going singles is always the optimum.

[@TedsBasementPodcast]

@wizardsden666 You are saying just buying the complete set is cheaper than cracking X number of boxes to fill in a huge gap first and then selling duplicates to buy remaining singles? When I did alpha and Beta, my experience was that 1 case completed a set via selling duplicates and hits and there was money left over. In both scenarios, the case paid for itself and bought the set. Is that just luck, or did I find a sweet spot where the breadth of packs was wide enough to always / generaly pay for itself?

[@wizardsden666]

Oh, I get it know. If you consider trade/sell than there will be a different optimum which I can't show the results yet as that episode is coming out later!

[@TedsBasementPodcast]

@wizardsden666 ok i will look out for that video! Thanks 😊

[@KSilcoff]

Have you made a video on how to organize your AL binder similar to what you did with A/B? If not you should make another and share the document as you did last time!!

[@wizardsden666]

Not yet! Soon!

[@CsRacerOriginal]

Hahaha,... I feel uneducated when I watch a video of yours :P Well summarized :).

[@Nahtan.9758]

just bought my first box and pulled a foil queen guinevere, loving the tcg so far

[@wizardsden666]

Awesome! Guinevere is one of those cards that can abuse the ability so hope you figure out a way to play it!

[@Eddyb1e]

So, I went with 3 boxes to start my AL journey. Felt good for my budget. But as previously mentioned, I like to crack packs couldn't stop lol... currently at 5. 😁

[@wizardsden666]

Haha, you will be soon buying another case lol

[@Eddyb1e]

@@wizardsden666 Don't threaten me with a good time, lol

[@TacomaTacos]

Thank you! 🎉

[@colinleung6150]

Good stuff bro

[@korakys]

"Point three three three three" can also be expressed with the phrase "and a third." The more you know~

[@sirfishslayer5100]

Great video Haine. But you never answered the question of "How many boxes does it take to complete a set?" What would your model say verses how many did it take CFH complete a set?

[@wizardsden666]

I did, it was in the last portion where I showed 4 plots of completion curves. I didn't say what the value was specifically. Around 75 (average) is the boxes required to complete a full NF set.

[@sirfishslayer5100]

@@wizardsden666 OK, ya. For us non-statistic people...ya gotta spell it out. Well, 75...that's not gonna happen for most of us unless you have gobs of disposable income...and/or are selling as a side-hustle.

[@SquireLep]

Thanks Haine, hope your pulls have been good! Is your local scene growing healthily?

[@wizardsden666]

Yes! We are enjoying AL darft!

[@eccboy7]

I thought sir gawain had 4 threshold symbols? Is he not a true unique?

[@wizardsden666]

It has four but it has three different elements. True uniques have only 2 different elements.

[@eccboy7]

@@wizardsden666 appreciate the clarification there mate, fantastic insight as always. Loving the new set- art work is beautiful and the new mechanics seem solid.

[@jonthetall1]

In regards to true uniques sirs and elites sirs , Sir Tristan and Dame Britomart both have 4 threshold but are "elites".

[@wizardsden666]

They have more than 3 elements, and this condition is written in the slide shown while explaining it. I forgot to comment that part lol

[@satjosh101]

So 2-3 boxes to complete full set before duplication starts and better to buy singles to complete uniques?? Awesome vid

[@wizardsden666]

You won't be able to complete elites with 2/3 boxes, you will be able get ~50% of them with plenty of duplicates.

[@nibernator]

Hey Haine, Any difference in foil pull rates from Beta besides the Unique foils being more difficult to pull a specific one? I assume the other rarities would be easier to pull as there are less of them in the set, correct? But! Since we will be buying from sellers like CFH or TCGPlayer, the sale price will likely settle lower than beta prices IF the print run is higher than Beta, correct?

[@wizardsden666]

I will do a foil analysis soon! I don't think the unique prices will settle that low (not considering desirability) as the cost (box to open) to obtain these are significantly higher. With the MSRP ratio, it is almost equivalent to beta uniques. The other stuff will definitely cheaper though.

[@Selliis]

So what you are saying - buy singles :)

[@sorcererscircle535]

Nicely done I don't think this adds or subtracts anything. Opened the 8 boxes and still have 8 elites I am looking for and the Mester stoor worm is the only one I did not see a single copy of I opened between 9-12 non foil uniques, 1-2 foil uniques and 0-2 foil elites per box. Is this about right regarding what you were informed of?

[@wizardsden666]

Yeah, the elite numbers seems to line up with my model perfectly. I haven't analyzed the foils yet but it will be coming soon!

[@sorcererscircle535]

@@wizardsden666 look forward to it

[@Shishkebarbarian]

I opened like 7 boxes now, 5 for myself and 2 for the store. I want to open another case chasing a curio lol. But even after those 7 boxes there are quite a few cards I haven't seen yet. I think the elite unique knights should be in their own rarity bracket, as it seems their distribution is divorced from regular elites

[@wizardsden666]

From what is measured in data, the distribution of the elite knights does follow the other regular elites distribution. The true uniques are the chase for this set and it will be really difficult to get as you are experiencing. Hope you pull a curio!

[@Shishkebarbarian]

@@wizardsden666 let me elaborate, there seem to be 4-6 elite knights per box, and with a pretty large pool they're overall a bit harder to get than any particular non-knight elite, at least that's my experience from a smaller sample size. In my boxes I got 1-4 of every elite (mostly 2-3x), but I think there are still some knights I didn't get, need to double check. I didn't think it affects their value at all, but is there no evidence that they're slightly rare than any particular regular elite? No arguments from me, you certainly did a killer analysis and thank you so much for that. You're a massive boon for our community.

[@joemacallister7561]

nice vid 😎

[@fototryhard]

Heiiii are you playing sorcery arround 12nov. to 24nov. Somewhere in japan? Will be in osaka and tokyo.

[@wizardsden666]

There will be an event on 11/24 (SUN) at Fellows Game Cafe in Tokyo and I will be there! See my X accounts for announcements!

[@dwillingham]

4 boxes then. Three to crack and one to save for the future.

[@probilliards101]

yup lol. i just opened an AL box and ordered 2 more. then i ordered 2 beta boxes, one ill pull, and the other I'm saving. if this game takes off, these will be pretty valuable in a few years, especially beta.

[@behappy-d2z]

Are there God Boxes in this Set? I bought a Case at Spiel and opened the first display tonight. I have 9 Unique with 2 being foiled Sir Galahad and Sir Ironside The other Unique are Sir Perceval, The Round table, The Ninth Legion, Sir Ray, Sir Balin, Sir Yvain, Sir Bors the Younger I reported this to my friends at Nerd and Proud of It and Cardbord Guide. 4 packs left and interesting open the rest of the Case 😳❤️

[@wizardsden666]

I don't think there are God Boxes atm. Technically I treat them as, "packaging defect" as it is never intended.

[@behappy-d2z]

@@wizardsden666 Ok thanks for letting me know. I watched a opening on Cardboard Guide and this Set has some very nice design and art. Got two Unique Foils and one were Sir Galahad. A very good job by the Sorcery team!

[@johnnyg.8572]

Great Haine!!!

[@jffarrawr]

No sorcery anything near me :(. I'll be buying at least 4 boxes just because i can't even play a limited or constructed without traveling over an hour.

[@wizardsden666]

It is part of playing an indie TCG. The closest place I play Sorcery frequently is in Tokyo, which is 3 hours away from where I live.

[@Mr.Jungle-w6u]

How many curios did cold foil heroes pull?

[@DrJambonius]

Would be interesting to know. While waiting: 1 true curio (Not the case cards, the real curio) 1/50-100 boxes so, between 1.5-3 curios. Will look foward if they got in that range

[@wizardsden666]

I don't know, maybe I should ask lol

[@Dstinct]

I believe your rarity table is incorrect. There should be 55 true uniques, 16 elite uniques, 39 elites, 55 expeceptional and 55 ordinary. This puts 55 cards at each pack rarity.

[@wizardsden666]

Yes, I put it up on the comments!

[@coreymackxs]

This is why youtube needs 3x speed.

[@coreymackxs]

Lets get into it.... ad.

[@LucaRovaldi]

🥃