Sorcery TCG News - October 16th, 2024: Foil Rarity Ratio

[@urbano999]

Sorcery makes opening a foil card, even an ordinary foil card, a special moment. MTG did this when they started including foils in the earl days. Nowadays every TCG just fills your boxes with variants, foils, alt arts. Nothing feels special anymore. I hope Sorcery continues to make foils hard to get in future sets.

[@wizardsden666]

I do remember the first time they put foils in UL, that was indeed special. It is hard to feel how rare it is until you crunch in the numbers.

[@emmettelric]

Impeccable work Haine. Thank you for crunching the numbers and to CFH for providing the data.

[@wizardsden666]

The biggest thanks really goes to CFH as he counted up close to 2000 cards lol. That must be tiring!

[@sirfishslayer5100]

Haine....doing the math for those of us who can't....we appreciate it! 🙂 Another awesome video!

[@wizardsden666]

Gotta have data out in the world so misinformation doesn't spread!

[@leptonsoup337]

Haine, as always, thank you for bringing the math!

[@henrycho2431]

Haine showing us his Wizard math skills. Another great video with valuable content.

[@wizardsden666]

Nah, it's still "apprentice" wizard math skill ;)

[@lholo]

Outstanding analysis!! Great work!

[@_nelsoncarmona]

Thank you for doing all this work!

[@neatherlingz_tcg7370]

I'm happy to see the team is keeping things rare and collectible. I love the trying to open boxes to get foil set is madness stat lol

[@wizardsden666]

Yeah, it's always going to be special to pull one.

[@mikepelli]

Thanks, Haine, another great video! 🔥🔥❤️❤️

[@gstplays4525]

Thanks for the data! Always appreciate your videos!

[@CollectorArthouse]

Nice job Haine. Interesting findings.

[@SquireLep]

Thanks Haine and CFH!

[@Dstinct]

On one hand I appreciate CFH providing so much data and help to the community, but the shop prices are terrible compared to what sellers are offering on TCGP. Elites area 4x the price.

[@stevefrazier2060]

were adjusting as we speak . market has been all over the place. changing daily but I think things are settling now

[@b2x10wt8]

@ 5:17 "boxes" has the 24 Al to 36 beta factored in? Also, the # of uniques is similiar between AL and Beta....but what is the actual odds of pulling a *specific* unique foil card per pack w/ AL vs Beta? I ask this because there's been frequent discord narrative floated that its way harder to pull any *specific* unique in AL vs beta and thats why high prices of AL unique foil singles are justified? I dont think in terms of per pack odds for any specific unique foil this is the case but perhaps when figuring the additional $1.25 price hike per AL pack (back to box vs pack) one could reach this conclusion.

[@wizardsden666]

Yes, pack difference is factored in. It is harder to pull AL uniques and that is shown in the table where I compared normalized relative value which factors in that pulling ratio.

[@SCR_ITA]

thank youuuu🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰

[@b2x10wt8]

Looking at your numbers. Any specific unique foil card in AL odds 1 in 3803.52 packs. Beta 1 in 3771.24 packs. Very close

[@theavatarkal]

I've opened 105 packs (four boxes, one draft, one sealed event) and I haven't hit a single foil unique. 😭 Great video! Thanks!

[@wizardsden666]

That does happen some times!

[@theavatarkal]

@@wizardsden666 and its ok because two of those boxes were used to play some casual, kitchen table sealed tournaments with some friends. So still worth it!

[@AfterSchoolSpecialTCG]

After 40 boxes, multiple boxes had zero elite or unique foils, however, multiple boxes also had an elite and an unique. All boxes had six foils, I thought I counted 7 once but I was also delirious after opening so many packs haha Also, zero Curios in 40 boxes which is also somewhat expected but also disappointing....

[@wizardsden666]

Curios are really rare, and how often you will pull is something event data can't reveal due to it being so scarce!

[@DEADKING624]

Well done Haine

[@metazuul1103]

Incredible 🧠

[@urbano999]

Important to know that the non-true uniques are also elite rarity in their foil versions.

[@wizardsden666]

Indeed, that is one of the major findings!

[@gsutton1956]

Awesome work haine! So how many alpha boxes are needed for a complete foil set? Given inconsistency in the distribution, is that even calculable?

[@wizardsden666]

It is calculatable as I already did in the past. Around 800 boxes, less than AL.

[@jimbarber8617]

You Rock!!!!

[@waydezilla]

I opened four boxes and didn’t get a single unique foil

[@wizardsden666]

It can happen for sure! You need to open at least 21 boxes to insure that you get at least one unique foil.

[@joemacallister7561]

Your three demands of Like, Comment, and Subscribe have been met. Consider the obligation fulfilled.

[@wizardsden666]

Awesome! Thanks for giving all three!

[@kylerich8213]

Idk if it’s exactly one in four packs. I only got 11 foils in 2 boxes

[@wizardsden666]

Statistically, that's likely to be just a mispackaging issue.

[@LucaRovaldi]

🥃

[@sorcererscircle535]

I guessed about 1000 boxes lol

[@wizardsden666]

Good guess! You got a slight discount lol

[@sorcererscircle535]

@@wizardsden666 haha that is so much money though. Maybe someone is crazy enough to do it. They should not do it! Is there data to show the harder cards to get or likelihood of pulling the exact unique you are trying to pull, within the sets. Both NF and F?