Stop Playing These AWFUL Thunder Junction Cards!

#mtg #magicthegathering #cardgame
This video is sponsored by Card Kingdom! Check out their awesome store here: www.cardkingdom.com/nizzahon
We've got enough Thunder Junction limited data now to make some pretty serious assesments. In this video, I look at 10 cards that are being taken too highly given what their win rate is.
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[@cax1175]

The yelling Nizzahon does every set to stop playing cards is why he is my favorite health and fitness channel. I need that motivation. I hope he gets a sponsorship offer for it eventually.

[@Bryantrannin]

I think there's one deck in which Jace is actually a bomb -- a Disinformation Campaign deck. He essentially allows you to cast it for free every single turn if you have enough crime, and that advantage will quickly snowball and become insurmountable. He even curves perfectly in this deck - you play him on T4 when Disinformation Campaign is already on the board for only 2 mana, then you still have 2 mana left to commit a crime and start the infinite Disinformation loop. I played against it once and it was brutal.

[@DaxRaider]

there are several decks hes amazing and 1st pick worthy in. people just play him in the wrong decks and missplay him even in the right decks

[@plantland7205]

I am so surprised that the outlaw cards have such a low winrate, because i drafted black/red outlaws twice and got 7/x both times. At knifepoint and rakish crew also felt like some of the better cards in my deck.

[@adamk7203]

I think these cards can be good if you really are able to draft into a dedicated deck, but people just throw them into the wrong decks

[@PsychoDiesel48]

They deserve a build around grade. On average they are probably not the best in a deck without a critical mass of outlaws. I agree heavy outlaw decks can go hard

[@adamk7203]

@@PsychoDiesel48 if you draft Laughing Jasper, the deck is crazy

[@PsychoDiesel48]

@@adamk7203 Ikr!

[@user-nk8xg4rl2l]

You can have success with any deck but in the higher ranks of Diamond and Mythic the weaker decks need to be stacked with bombs to have a chance. Lost a lotta gems in Diamond tryna change it up instead of drafting green or black grindfest (which is my favorite style of deck to be fair)

[@benkentucky4380]

Deadeye Duelist's best combo is with Taii Wakeen, where it turns into a repeatable fireball. Great finisher in boros aggro.

[@jhTheMan99]

I always look forward to the Nizzanotes! I had At Knifepoint in a recent deck and it might have been the only deck possible where it could perform well. The deck had like 14 outlaws (+ merc tokens) and enough crimes. It combos extremely well with Vial Smasher (play outlaw creature -> Vial Smasher commits crime -> generate outlaw -> another ping from Smasher). Creatures like the 3/2 deathtouch that can grant lifelink/menace popped off with the first strike bonus as well But yeah in an average black red deck it just wouldn’t be that good especially because of how bad it is when you’re behind

[@vorck111]

funnily enough i lost at win 7 to someone who had jace and oko crowned thief where i had to throw my removal at oko and he managed to stall until he ulted jace and mindbreak trap 1 shot milled me

[@michaelcollins4534]

Sounds like oko did all the work there

[@titon7608]

I was expecting the 7 mana rare blue noncreature counter spell that steals the card and can be cast for free if you exile 2 blue cards from hand to show up here. Its likely not here either because 17Lands users rightfully dont use a 7 mana counterspell or are good enough to only use it in decks that actually can go off with it. It felt weird pitching a counterspell to cast... a counter spell... to essentially go down 3 cards to go up 2 (stop a card and use a new one) as a net -1. Games go really long so its not entirely unreasonable to cast it normally and in the right decks having interaction when tapped out is a God-Send. Just dont know how to feel about it. Ive lost 2 games and won 2 games entirely because i had this card.

[@gretchling5012]

i got my Rush of Dread commandeered tonight. still don't think it's super good, but in a grindy format that also has Spree making a lot of spells big and splashy, it's better than it looks.

[@brianl7321]

Agreed that Ferocification is horrible. I got it late in a red/green deck and needed playables I had pivoted out of white and mistakingly played it. It never did anything helpful on the board and I felt very dumb for using it. Generally been struggling with this format, I'm usually a bit above 50% winrate and I'm all the way down at 44% right now. :( Then again this is the first set I've heavily drafted since Strixhaven so maybe I'm just rusty

[@user-nk8xg4rl2l]

I tried it early in the format and had a few games where the haste actually mattered but I also had a few green big green beaters and getting haste on even a cactarantula is pretty sweet. Still, I probs would have preferred a different spell.

[@doomhowar]

Only draft i won in thunder junction was a using Ferocification. I'm convinced people don't know how to use it cus it literally won a few rounds for me.

[@Alexxf35]

Went 7-1 yesterday w/ a R/G deck. 5 of those wins were from games that ended w/ me casting Electrodominance to the opponents face. Fun was had by all.

[@TheLuminousCleric]

Is that Oko in Rakish Crew?

[@BaronVonTeeVirus]

The Jace is a build around. He slays in blue green plot

[@bobobo7730]

I got to Deepmuck Desparado and I feel like you described my Azorius deck almost perfectly. I Picked up Archive trap and Assimilation Aegis first and this just fit so sweetly. Went 7-2 with it

[@alainassaf]

indeed very fun set... haven't enjoyed limited this much since lord of the ring.

[@zeoxyman]

I started a draft immediately after watching this, and got Jace in pack 1. Probably would have taken him without your guidance lol.

[@RationalEgoism]

I think some people are taking Jace because it's a mythic, but still he's played 78.3%. I check stats while drafting and cutting down to 40.

[@llongone2]

Surprised At Knifepoint is so low...won and lost games because of that card.

[@jeremyphillips3087]

Yeah, I got crushed by this.

[@superbaas8822]

Was it because of the Knifepoint though, or were they just doing other good things and it happened to be there?

[@stefanoderosa9506]

You have to play it in the right deck, it's not for every BR deck, if you have removal and a couple of copies of Vial Smasher and Deadeye Duelist, it can be a very good card.

[@adamk7203]

I love deep muck desperado. You draft 3 of these and build around, you're milling and chilling

[@tdkcampbell]

If an uncommon is picked 10th pick, people have figured out that its bad.

[@RedScarGaming]

Another fine video. The only one that I might argue against is Eriette's Lullaby. As you said, it is at least passable in a grinding deck, but it seems my opponents are playing this quite effectively against me fairly often. Maybe I am just playing bad decks though, so I should listen to you more closely. Thanks again for the video and the time spent to make it.

[@daniduc]

Ok, I've picked and played 3 of those... I'm still a total beginner on draft (just reared drafted with tokes from mastery before), but this format made me want to learn drafting. Thanks for the videos!

[@brandonb8106]

What happened to the comment section? Some of the most nebulous comments and obvious bot traffic I've seen. Thank you Nizza for these videos, i always enjoy your analysis of the current limited formats

[@sgjuxta]

I *think* Jace is a bit better than the winrate shows. I think a lot of people are picking it when they open it because they either want Jace for Constructed or gems, and then when they get to deckbuilding, they're just kinda shoving it in if they're in blue, because they drafted it, they might as well play it. Like, I i honestly think Jace would have a higher winrate if it was actually being taken later, as the person picking Jace 6th or 7th isnt necessarily passing up a better card for Jace, whereas the person picking it 1 or 2 almost assuredly is. Idk if that made sense.

[@Jack-uh2db]

he doesn’t really do anything though. looting is mildly good and the plot ability is largely useless in limited. If you can ult him he’s cool but i’d honestly take basically any other blue uncommon over him

[@robinesperoza]

@@Jack-uh2db I think you summed it up with "he's cool though", I don't think he's good, but don't we all like to play a plainswalker? I feel the average pick is deserved just for that reason alone. :)

[@kaichou902]

I am really surprised deadeye duelist is that bad. I expected it to be a strong enabler for crime decks

[@arnaudlaperrouze7880]

crimes in red isn't very good, the card would be blue or black i think it would be way better

[@robinesperoza]

I feel the card is dragged down by it's colour. Personally I had little success with red; with the exception if you've a red bomb or something.

[@lordrumfishsmagicarena271]

I've found Eriette's Lullaby to be totally serviceable. It would be awful in an aggressive deck; don't do that. I like decks with a bit more setup and late game grind, and a 2-mana removal spell I can play while I'm getting my tap lands out works just fine. The big exile removal spells can wait for better targets, but Eriette's Lullaby can take out the Trained Arynxes of the world (or the thing that saddled it). I don't take it early, I don't take it highly, but it's fine.

[@robinesperoza]

I felt so cool when I used Jace's +1 plot ability on my commando (so it came down with 2 +1/+1 counters). Lol, deck didn't do well.

[@oops3034]

Do you think dead eye duelist would be better as a 2/2 or an 0/4

[@memyself3510]

Out of curiosity for at knifepoint, how much of a difference do you think it would’ve made if it spotted you the first mercenary on etb?

[@memyself3510]

Idk what the implication of this is, but usually when I watch these videos I’m often like “huh, that card looks like it should’ve been better”. But this one I feel like I’ve been much more like “why would anyone have thought this card was good?”

[@montefrenkel8205]

Always love these, but It feels like it would be helpful to also give the stat providing the win rate delta when drawn. Especially when, as seems to be the case for OTJ, a few color combos feel much stronger, it might help distinguish stuff that still helps bad decks from stuff that is definitively behind the curve.

[@DerekLippold]

I feel like they expecting milling to be a big thing with this set and it wasn’t.

[@irou95]

sheriff plot t2 into prickly pair is a good curve

[@stefanoderosa9506]

At knifepoint can be very good, you just have to play it in the right decks. It comboes very well with Deadeye Duelist and Vial Smasher. You have to draft BR to be midrangey, if you do, it becomes very good.

[@Ryokamen]

I like deadeye duelist. I went 7-1 with it. Granted I had 3 of the deepmurk desperado. Milling 6 a turn minimum is pretty good imo

[@DaxRaider]

i got 7 wins on the back of jayce several times now ... its a STRONG card. people miss using it and putting it in decks where he doesnt have a role to play just because he is a planeswalker makes his wr go down but hell he can be strong

[@spirituallyricalmiracle2048]

Freestrider is great with reanimation so watch out for that if your in green black

[@woopyification]

This man completely destroyed by rakdos deck I won multiple limited events with.

[@wopperaef4724]

I will say, ferocification was quite a bomb in my annie flash pre release deck

[@rooksdoubleohseven9919]

F that nezum better than most +9' s. Though if your in black then yo might be done Yikes ppl plain jace likethat.

[@josehinostrozavasque]

Not sure if 17lands tracks mtgo but Jace pays for another draft, so it makes Sense to take it early

[@user-dr8ko8ui5y]

I’m really surprised about Freestrider Commando, it’s been great for me so far

[@FennTheFool]

The comment at the beginning of the vid, about recent draft formats not being great, what sets is that referring to? I know people weren't wild about MKM, but I don't exactly know why and I don't think its something Nizzahon has touched on in any of his videos. As somebody who frequently misses set releases and gets back around to them in quick drafts down the line, I'd definitely appreciate more post-mortems on formats.

[@Jack-uh2db]

the last 3 sets have been very aggressive, basically

[@Lasagnadestroyer]

I’ve always had good luck with freestrider commando.

[@superork26]

Deepmuck Desperado only mills opponents, no self mill synergies

[@user-dr8ko8ui5y]

This is definitely not a Big Butts Matter set

[@PsychoDiesel48]

6:03 Now THAT is ridiculous. Get a beefy gruul or 3 color creature deck that has some beef and you ha a recipe for winning most combats until the end of the game. This card goes HARD. Had two in my deck and went undefeated at my LGS

[@NizzahonMagic]

I mean, you can definitely win with Ferocification. I'm not saying there is a 0% chance. Magic is a game of variance, after all. So, you doing well with it in one draft is a very possible outcome. But when we look at a massive pool of data, we see that it isn't performing well. That holds a lot more weight han an anecdote.

[@PsychoDiesel48]

@@NizzahonMagic that's fair I guess. I'm just surprised with how well green is doing that ferocification would be doing so poorly

[@TheOkoon]

Deepmuck Desporado only mills your opponent.

[@liquidusblue]

I got Jace in the pre-realease. I didn't play it

[@Shimatzu95]

It would be kind of poetic if commiting crimes turns out to be a bad decktec. 😅

[@rjphilla]

I watch all of these videos but now I'm curious how you're using the win rate amyd average pick data. It seems you assume that players on 17 lands are better players. You also have to assume that they are placing these cards in the correct deck for maximum success. Sure the average win rate of a single card in an unknown deck with unknown players is below the average win rate of said service. What are we actually analyzing? There's so many other factors that go into winning.

[@asteria9963]

deadeye duelist is so bad, if you keep using its ability, it will put you behind by one turn (because you won't be able to curve out/add to the board). for one damage to an opponent, not even any target. there is no reason to ever use it, unless you're underperforming. and it won't even help you recover.

[@stefanoderosa9506]

wrong, its ability has to be used in the mid/late game to enable your crime payoffs, not just to ping on turn 2 to 4. It can also block small creatures/fliers. As with most cards you have to know how and when to play it. It's not garbage like most of this list.

[@soggytoast111]

The point of this card is that it commits crimes at instant speed so you can get multiple triggers out of your stuff per turn cycle. Obviously if you're just playing it to deal one damage to the opponent it's not very good.

[@randy5606]

Ferocification at very least gives your creatures haste. So when I played it it helped me win. Then again it was given to me on the last card but it did help add pressure

[@danhostetler1423]

The real problem with the Rakdos cards isn't that they suck it's that green was just too overpowered and crushes them before the rakdos decks can establish their combo. The times I drafted rakdos and went first it went off with crimes generating mercenaries getting an etb trigger and then chumping them for more triggers creating more triggers. Which is what rakdos was designed to do for this set. But most of the time I was going second to green aggro decks that would have a bristly bill on turn 2 or ornery tumblewagg on turn 3 or both. Plus dealing with the pegasus mount with lifelink. Green just seems to be what most opponents are running and they draw consistent as heck with these cards and seem to have better battle tricks and removal where black/red just doesn't have good enough removal available before those drop and become a problem. Those black/red cards are great for the synergy of that color combination and what they were intending, but this set left them pretty much defenseless to green/____ aggro.

[@TheDougWay]

These cards aren't really awful, just either a little below average or niche but when you say AWFUL I imagined worse cards than these.

[@NizzahonMagic]

These days, the gap between the best and worst cards is a lot smaller.

[@alexparker2432]

I bet if people played freestrider commando properly it'd have a better win rate. People don't plot it and it's such a waste

[@AngoDecay]

Nah its just the worst of the green creatures

[@kaiseremotion854]

@@AngoDecay I love 5/5 for 4s that are unplayable

[@dragonsigner]

There is a rule in business. That if you own 51% of a company .you own it. I wonder if that can apply to mtg win rate? As a good thing

[@Pedun42]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

[@cax1175]

The win rates of people on 17 Lands is about 55% usually, people who are really into limited, so it gives a better overview on how much skilled drafters are playing cards and where they are picking them. 51% on there is not a good pick.

[@dragonsigner]

@@Pedun42 don't worry about it then..it's not that important to answer. Doesn't matter anyway

[@nickniehaus1763]

Can you scream at call of duty to not fucking ruin their game? Jesus fucking Christ this new patch…

[@nathanvoelker2054]

lol call of duty