Peter Thiel: You Are Not a Lottery Ticket | Interactive 2013 | SXSW

Discourse and action in our society are increasingly dominated by the idea that the world cannot be known. But to what degree issuccess in this world dominated by luck? How much of our lives can be planned for, and can the future be achieved in a world dominated by indeterminate thinking?
In an hour, we'll look at the evolution of determinate to indeterminate thinking in our society, and we'll consider its many implications.

[@nixtoshi]

Anyone else enjoying every word of this presentation?

[@mikezooper]

+David Lopez No. A lot of it is nonsense. It's similar to the advice given by naturally calm people to people who get stressed easily. The calm people never had to work on themselves... they just have a calm temperament by nature. The truth is that psychologists have studied success. The largest factor of success if emotional resilience, but the other hugely important factor that I've never heard anyone ever say is high energy levels. ALL successful people I've seen have huge energy levels... that and emotional resilience. They are above average intelligence usually too. However I don't think success is anything else but that. Having high energy levels is luck... it's mostly genetic. Resilience is also genetic, in that it can't be learned (you can increase it a reasonable amount but not enough to get huge levels of success if your emotional resilience is low).

[@nixtoshi]

***** I have to disagree. You are not a lottery ticket. What you call innate abilities are the product of work, environment and karma/dharma from this and previous lives. In essence we get what we deserve. If you want better, you work for it. I used to be very irritable as a kid, would get mad at my sister easily for anything. But now, I am what you call a calm person 'by nature'. Truth is, I worked on myself eliminating the ego or at least, keeping it at bay. If you are looking for a true -key advice- to success, let me share one with you. At the elites it's common to see that almost everyone (if not everyone) has some sort of spiritual activity that is practiced often, and people keep these very close to themselves. From Cleopatra, to Einstein to Bruce Lee to Oprah to Steve Jobs. There is a reason behind the "illuminati" conspiracy, the illumination is a real spiritual concept that happens every day to many people and there is no doubt that what happens inside resonates outside. Some of the very best you can follow: Zen Buddhism and Gnosis (books from Samael Aun Weor or attending to classes). Best

[@AlumniQuad]

um uh...sort of...um uh...in some sense...um uh...but again...um uh...in some way...um uh...

[@verapamil07]

Yes, love it, very insightful.

[@PlaneToTheBrainES]

David Lopez Absolutely yes! :)

[@AcharyaChanakya108]

More relevant than ever in late 2020. Truly timeless wisdom.

[@nintendo9231889]

Especially in 2022 considering the klaus schwab great reset.

[@shway1]

@@nintendo9231889 that was in 2020, and even before that. it's just a continuation of the same bs they say to try to look good and pretend like they care about the environment. then you have the lunatics who actually take them seriously and turn it into some wild conspiracy theory.

[@peony7967]

Even more now

[@patrickoconnor7919]

even more now

[@younesszaim3234]

even more now

[@hydrazine19]

Thiel’s grid basically covered a major question on my mind for a while now. Somehow he’s able to structure the question, provide a simple framework to explain the observed phenomenon, and extrapolate on the underlying reasons. That’s when I realize how far away I am from genius level intelligence.

[@CFox.7]

relax bro hes a synth

[@mr.solomun9546]

Yeah it's batshit insane!

[@shway1]

there is nothing genius about this talk.

[@pageek3487]

Ease up on the cool-aid.

[@sanmagarinos]

Clarity and intelligence are not so correlated. A lot of geniuses are babblers. He probably had a lot of conflicting theories before coming up with an answer and presenting it in a cohesive way.

[@pfschuyler]

Holy crap. I knew Thiel was a great mind, but this is the best one yet. Really fascinating, practical and ingenious view of society.

[@tensevo]

Just simply fantastic speech. Bravo.

[@tensevo]

...just to clarify, anyone can say what he is saying and come up with a compelling narrative of how we got here, but he has consistently put his money where is mouth was, and his investments have delivered, big time. This gives his word much greater impact.

[@Mojangx]

I find myself in awe right now.. Growing up I used to have radical imaginations of the future and had great conviction of them too.. but now I’m much more focused on money and safeguarding myself rather than really working to advance that future. I’m inspired by Peter Thiel and know y’all are too!

[@wave641]

people say majoring in philosophy is a waste of time, yet here you have arguably the best investor, and one of the best minds of our time using it as a clear foundation for everything he does in both metaphysical and utilitarian terms. of course, him being a genius helps as well.

[@AlexanderMoen]

How is this 8 years old and I'm just now hearing this? I'm only a few minutes in and this is already seeming like an incredibly important talk

[@AlexIsUber]

Wow... i always heard that Thiel was a brilliant guy....I can't believe I never heard him speak until now. Amazing talk.

[@garrettbryan2717]

I love that he talks about infrastructure! We can’t even maintain what was built 70 years ago let alone build with the passion of that time!

[@anupamshah7694]

For more information please read his book "Zero to One" especially if you are working in core technologies, could be mobile apps or AI or anything more specific. It will change your mindset and open you to a new world of possibilities.

[@kaypakaipa8559]

best thing i ever read honestly. bought the audio book. listened to 5times.

[@surendrashekhawat4155]

I’m thinking starting a company in Blockchain or Fintech in time condensing sequence.🌱

[@DeepakSharma_Tao]

Love his ideas a lot..Speaks like a true visionary with tons of lessons and case studies from the past (from all geographies) and all structures- capitalist or socialist and comes up with non partisan analysis of the world. Amazing speaker to listen to. Thanks for the upload.

[@rhythmandacoustics]

He is one of a kind thinker. The main point of the book was that you should not rely on luck but it is good if you do get lucky. The title is " you are not a lottery ticket" meaning that you just don't get random chance. You have to make preparations and plans regardless of you are lucky or not. It would help to be lucky but relying on luck is bad.

[@mackeejack6731]

It wouldn’t help to get lucky, it’s the deciding factor. And begins way before you’re cognizant of it. If you have enough talent, you can work your way to success. But if you don’t, you’re just wasting time

[@rhythmandacoustics]

@@mackeejack6731 you are ignoring luck is which basically unknown variables. You think that success or failure is just based on skills alone. Which is wrong. Even smart people fails when the conditions are not in their favour.

[@osamataha336]

Isn't this basically, being at the right place and time (aka luck) more important than being the right person?

[@rhythmandacoustics]

@@osamataha336 At the beginning yes but how long can you hold your position if you have no skills. Getting to somewhere is hard but retaining that position is even harder.

[@u7nk2000]

@@rhythmandacoustics absolutely, however you do need to get lucky first and sometimes there’s a buffer until the competition catch up so luck is 80% of the equation I would say

[@nemesis1134]

Ok here from a Solving the Money Problem comment. Great thing about these videos is that we can have deeper perspectives with nuances of times and years past, I might have even been at that SXSW.

[@thomasschaffer5612]

I love Peter Thiel, I love what he has to say. What I do not love is that for all the unique ideas he has, he doesn't act any of them out. He invests a small percentage of his money into research, and small amount into the Thiel foundation. If he wants the world to revert back to an optimistic certainty, he should be the first person to commit as much of his wealth as he can. And not wait for a braver billionaire/millionaire to do it first. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezo's do this somewhat, but to the length Thiel proposes, he bawks at decision to do it first.

[@xKoeix]

He already is, in palantir, but he does not do it in an bombarstic elon jeff style

[@seanpierre1338]

he is not an engineer (he admits this) so his technical knowledge is limited

[@pickywolf2728]

@@seanpierre1338 Engineers have limited knowledge too. Every human is limited.

[@MADMAX7330]

I didnt expect to, but oh my word, did I resonate with this! New found respect for Peter Thiel!

[@PeterThieledigital]

Thiel's Thoughts are terrific. He is a futurist. I appreciate his vision. I bet hanging out at a cocktail party with Peter and Ann Coulter is fun.

[@MrDivad006]

- when people have ideas for a better future, money is a means to an end, there are specific things people want to do with the money. When people have no idea how to build a better future, money becomes an end in itself, people accumulate money and don't know what to do with it. - monotonic and potentially never-ending improvement

[@christopherarmstrong2710]

24:12 Shift from definite to indefinite views of the future = Shift from engineering to finance. Money becomes much more important, transforms from a means to an end to an end in itself. 29:00 Natural drift from finance to insurance (Warren Buffett play).

[@AlexRodriguez-rq4jf]

Peter Thiel and Elon Musk are near-perfect examples of entrepreneurship. They have the 'moonshot thinking' mentality and that is what we need to contunie innovation and improve humanity.

[@mosialive]

Except that Peter Confessed that he'll never bet against Elon... hah aha

[@Tdtdtosyodpdydpypx]

Bootlicker

[@StanSensei]

The Einstein of entrepreneurship. 99.999% of entrepreneurship advice out there is pure garbage about creating scams and copying others, thank you Peter for inspiring us to think for ourselves and value vision over risk management.

[@philipgoetz]

Very cool. Listening on and off throughout the workday. Audio quality is excellent. Video great as well.

[@LoganMcNay]

YOU ARE NOT A LOTTERY TICKET - Notes A big question. How much of what we do is chalked up to luck? This is true in life, start ups, and somewhat philosophical too, so it’s important. So he breaks it down into 4 topics - The question of luck - Determinate vs indeterminate futures - Is indeterminate optimism possible? - The return of Design - Overview Thesis - The question of luck is very hard to answer because you only have a sample size of 1 to go on - We live in a society that’s incredibly biased to thinking that things are dominated by luck - Finally, he takes a look at some alternative ways to think about the future to explore To start, when you think about how the 21st century will unfold, there are 2 axis: a technology axis and a globalization axis. So what do these things even mean? What are technological advances and globalization advances? - Globalization: copying things that already work. - It’s the story of China and the emerging world. - They mainly just have to copy things that already work & avoid copying bad ideas from developed nations - A lot of it is horizontal extensive progress. Going from 1 to N. - Technological Advances: This is being creative, innovating, being the artist or entrepreneur doing something that’s never been done before. Going 0 to 1. There’s something very different about the 2. With innovation, there’s something singular and non repeatable about it. So if we go back to the question and ask, was a given accomplishment just luck, a fluke, or was there more at play? With a sample size of one, variance becomes infinite. Mathematical models are useless. It’s completely unclear if it’s luck or not, especially if you go from 0 to 1. There is some evidence of repeatability. Steve Jobs, Elon Musk. But you could still say they just had one big break and used that to leverage their other big breaks, so it’s still hard to say. If you go back in time, the classical way of thinking was that luck was something to be overcome. - “I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” - Thomas Jefferson - “The harder I work, the luckier I get” - Samuel Goldwyn Today, there’s a much different view: The lucky sperm club, you’re lucky where you’re born; and that’s what drives everything. And that applies to startups, the successful ones were accidental. And this worldview stems off of today's worldview of luck; so let’s challenge how much of this is or isn’t true. There’s 2 ways to look at the orientation of this question which is the past, how did I get here? And the future, where can I go next, where do I go from here? Is the future something dominated by chance or is thinking about it in terms of chance the wrong or incomplete way of looking at it? Now, the structure of the future, and you can think about it in terms of being determinate or indeterminate and optimistic or pessimistic. If you believe that the future is determinate, you’ll act with some level of conviction, you’ll have ideas, and you’ll have confidence to work to those ideas. If it’s indeterminate, the no. 1 rule is to diversify because you have no idea if it’s going to work and you should just try lots of different things and take some sort of portfolio approach to the future. Both of these ideas become self fulfilling. If you think it’s determinate and you focus on doing one thing extremely well, that leads to conviction, and then it becomes self fulfilling. If you think it’s fundamentally indeterminate, you have the portfolio approach and it becomes self fulfilling and more indeterminate. If you look at it in history, you can break it down in chunks of time. In the 1950s, we had determinate optimism, imaginations of flying cars, Star Trek tech. China has pessimistic determinism. If you have a definite determinism rate, you’ll know what to invest in. If it’s indeterminate, you won’t know what to invest in. The strange thing about indeterminate optimism is that it is the quadrant that has both low savings and low investment, and the big question is if that is a stable quadrant to be in at all? Is it possible for the future to be better when no one saves and no one invests because no one is thinking and everyone is outsourcing the thinking to other people. One other way you could describe this difference of this shift from determinate to indeterminate ways of the future is that the mathematical version is that the dominant form of math used to be calculus (determinate) and now it’s probability and statistics (indeterminate) The structural way is that in a determinate world you’re focused on substance, in an indeterminate world, all you focus on are processes, like, what’s the process for doing something. In practice, this translates to jobs. Optimistic determinism is engineering and art, where people have dreams about the future that no one else shares that they plan to turn into reality. Optimistic indeterminism is finance and law. Pessimistic determinism is wartime rationing, pessimistic in-determinism is insurance.

[@tom-long]

Man, you're a beast!

[@sanjaysunny8589]

Thanks 🙏

[@yglnvbrs]

damn, making conspects is a skill that i forgot how to use

[@nonefvnfvnjnjnjevjenjvonej3384]

ya his argument is fundamentally flawed. there is no zero to one. everybody built on top of what came before. standing on the shoulder of giants is a thing. of course someone whose only claim to fame is a lucky investment in a social network would try and prove it was not luck. lol.

[@mensrea1251]

👏 👏 👏

[@CheeseCakes11944]

wow, what incredible ideas, and thinking, its great that he has the succesfull history to back it all up.

[@octavioavila6548]

This was really good. I was firmly on the luck camp before watching this talk. Now, I'm not so sure. Peter Thiel makes some really good points here

[@paideia-e9u]

Thks much for sharing. Having overcome a great many years of profound self-sacrifices, achieved an incredible personal breakthrough, progress in technology, wealth, power, and conventional fame to this date; however, many great men, women, and the whole world continue neglecting and unable to identify some of the greatest, most meaningful, and much more needed projects to timely rescue and heal the many internal, desperately state illnesses, wounded physical, mental, and spirits of the people throughout the world, not in space or Mars. *** What is it and when? Best wishes always, altc, Paideia Academy & Society

[@ccdavis94303]

Great talk. The analysis overlays on the 2x2 grid gives a lot of insight.

[@Okelydokely7]

Living in a society where agency is viewed as limited to nonexistent is actually a real advantage for those who believe in it; by going after a more valuable long-term outcome and beginning to succeed towards it, they are imbued with an aura of "evolutionary validation", becoming the safe outcome in a landscape of dangerously unproven options. In an environment of optimistic determinism; they would not be able to attract as much attention/capital because it would "optimistically" be elsewhere.

[@StanislavKozlovsk]

I respect this man so much …

[@LongArrow18]

Unbelievable. This 1 hour talk gives me more ideas than a year in college

[@TroyMountain]

6:36 "Right place, right time"-- by person(s) who *decided* to be a certain place doing a certain thing at a certain time.

[@MannyReyes]

Peter Thiel = Badass

[@adaptkng]

Peter Thiel for President, this should have 300 million views

[@SamuelHauptmannvanDam]

It is pretty amazing how he oversees the other options in his deterministic vs indeterminate and positive vs negative.

[@mbabcock111]

The very fact you are born is unbelievably lucky in this vast Universe. Notwithstanding that axiomatic position, let's focus in on the preoccupation of human existence.

[@vivianoosthuizen8990]

We really don’t need anything new anymore what is really needed is to do what we do make what is made but do it better.

[@shwetangshah]

Amazing . Thank you

[@Conorscorner]

Really smart guy, I really admire him alot on paper and like him as a person... I just can't get through his talking engagements without completely losing interest in the thing he is talking about... hmmm...

[@AnkushSharma-zv5hv]

Every word is a gem

[@PeterBrennanfisic]

Great talk. Would have like to see more emphasis on conclusions at the end.

[@shivagoel6576]

24:16- About future: Definite(People have ideas about how the future's gonna look like)/Indefinite(People have no clue about future) and Optimism/Pessimism. Combination of 1 from each sums up the situation of the society, most of the times. More of that.

[@animatetheidea7945]

There are people who know and they are the ones who are lucky. Usually both in one person.

[@mitsu.hadeishi]

I enjoyed this talk and I found it rather amusing and interesting that he actually acknowledged one of the arguments made by environmentalists against a pure unregulated market, and at the end even had a nice thing to say about Marx. Though I'm sure Peter Thiel isn't endorsing Marx here in anything but an extremely limited and narrow sense on one topic, it was still rather shocking and funny to hear one of the most famous libertarians on the planet say anything positive about either environmentalists or Marx... :)

[@CollinGravesPersonal]

Mitsu Hadeishi He's certainly libertarian, but I think he's of the variety that focuses on logic rather than political persuasion :) we need more people like him.

[@mattmarkus4868]

He's a deep and original thinker with broad influences, not a caricature of [insert label]. He's not going to have obvious reasons for the positions he takes.

[@flowerpt]

Amazing talk. One quibble @33:30. Nozick only presumes the existence of an individual - we can prove that individuals exist in base reality. Rawls presumes that social democracy is real. We can't show that it isn't a mass delusion because we know that it only exists at the level of ideas Point to Nozick.

[@paideia-e9u]

And therefore, for the sake of Oneself, humanity, and immortality, according to the Ancient Chinese Secret Wisdom Tradition, what are the five kinds of most prosperous, most powerful knowledge and wisdom that every individual could and should possess? altc, Paideia Esoteric Society

[@jerryhunter5242]

Peter Thiel is smart, rich, eloquent and “makes sense”. Personally, I’m always skeptical of what Daniel Kahneman calls “illusion of understanding and Nassim Taleb refers to as “Epistomologic Arrogance”.

[@peterdrossos9607]

mad props to this guy; fuckin genius; love listening to him

[@MENDLER1]

The high class mobility in the USA shows that intelligence and hard work are the keys to success.

[@jonathankey6444]

The optimism of old, such as building the tallest buildings in the world, is now called “duck waving” and rockets are called “phallic-shaped wastes of money which could be given to the impoverished” as if no extraordinary pursuits are worthwhile and they’re all ultimately some form of injustice, which has become a cudgel

[@rhythmandacoustics]

26:28 Growth stock that reinvest their cash are better than companies that have large sums of cash

[@happeroh]

Peter now speaks at 1.25x the speed he did in this video

[@nothingOr01010101]

What was the movie playing around the 38:00 mark?

[@Gothisown]

If your watching this your lucky

[@maryma46]

Disagree with the saving rate’s correlation with optimism or pessimism in China. The culture has been highly valued saving as an essential virtue for thousands of years. Vertical comparison with itself shall make more sense than horizontal comparison.

[@the_primal_instinct]

The idea of investing into companies with no cash flow because they have ideas really aged well with the recent successes of Tesla.

[@bahroum69]

Not so much for Uber since IPO or on a different level, Nikolas though.

[@rickdeckard1075]

"outsourcing the thinking" - that's the US... the bottom line of this talk is: "why doesn't the US build new stuff anymore? answer: engineers/physicists became app programmers because they arent allowed to build anything else (because of regulatory environment)..."

[@rickdeckard1075]

...

[@iceman18211]

I was going to move my startup to the US until Donald Trump got elected. There are more laws in Canada, but the US political environment is unstable.

[@rickdeckard1075]

Mykyta P. Good, we won't be wasting SBA grants/incubation funds on foreign citizens....there are plenty of patriotic Americans who deserve them.

[@iceman18211]

Canada has more gov grants. Companies come here just for the grants. US has a better investment industry in New York and Silicon Valley. Easier to raise a few mill in the US.

[@rickdeckard1075]

Mykyta P. For software or other non-manufacturing...for anything to do with durable goods it's a bitch to get a small business thru the loops...

[@CJinsoo]

On the deterministic and in-determinant investment and foreign countries, those countries both governments and individuals are investing heavily in the U.S. Stock market now. I am not sure which category that fits in? Foreigners have a shit load of dollars and for now the best alternative is the U.S. equity markets. This is one factor that’s probably keeping the U.S. from launching into hyperinflation. Seems pessimistic and in-determinant the more I think about it.

[@matthewomalley9695]

I am glad to be of service by dispelling the fundamental randomness and meaninglessness of the universe perception of reality as erroneous… 😎

[@datguyoverdere6616]

I aggree with alot of these things, but I'm stuck trying to figure out where all these people with money are, there are massive ammounts of unemployed people, they're scrounging the change they have thats why they're saving, not because they want to...

[@ycnexu]

I would add that Western culture is mostly sensate and Epicurean, whom Peter mentioned. It's a model of individualism, Ayn Rand, dog-eat-dog mentality, rent-seeking, leisure and entertainment. Health and wealth to live a good, enjoyable life. The defining word of sensate culture is happiness. The opposite would be the ideational culture. Modern radical Islamism, nazism and communism before, medieval Europe. The defining word of ideational culture is meaning. There are ideational fragments in US as well, for example working yourself to the bone for your company. Companies that manifest collective meaning are rare and very popular: Tesla+SpaceX, Apple. In absence of religion, most ppl today believe in Tech that will save the world +AI (or destroy it), in social justice, in vegetarianism, in climate change. There's a perpetual tension between these opposing worldviews, and each generation, as well as each individual have to find a way of synthetizing them, because each of them taken to extremes leads to catastrophes.

[@MattStaples1]

Isn't a -6% savings rate due to most of the US being in debt? The balance of the large savings by the richest people and at least moderate debt by most of the US?

[@GiveMeAnOKUsername]

This is reminiscent of Robert Pirsig. i.e. qualityless view of reality.

[@StanislavKozlovsk]

When does Pirsig talk about the view of reality which lacks quality ?

[@modesto885]

Peter Theil for President 2020

[@datacenteredleadership9400]

Sounds like it's time for me to take a more determinate and optimistic view of the future, then use it to take other people's money for investments.

[@jacksonpaul1927]

Learn how to make 9k$ in 24hours text my professional broker Mrs Angela tell her i referred you Here via her WhatsApp [phone]

[@gregpev]

Yes

[@jsourouh]

Link for the movie clip that you can't hear the audio for: kzbin.info/www/bejne/hX2mfWmFjseGitk

[@aleksandrasignatavicius6772]

amazing

[@carmenchicas6775]

Asi es!....

[@MattHumanPizza]

what movie was shown at the 38 minute mark

[@01Tacket]

no country for old men ;)

[@EvaGreenFanPennyDreadful]

No, people that say those words are THINKERS. Some people pause.

[@felipemauez3557]

Terrible speaker, terrible slides... but what an incredible lecture, perspective and philosophy behind this. Life changing stuff.

[@TroyMountain]

26:28 Apple and Disney.

[@shimondoodkin]

video from video @ #37:20 kzbin.info/www/bejne/eKKwlYR4pN1ka9U

[@rollingtinfist]

Thank you.

[@maribethcondrillon1079]

I am very proud of you sir ❤️ I would be happy to meet you all on time I got there I want to convey to everyone I am not perfect I am not ashamed that I did not finish my studies. yesterday I was hurt, someone posted on my fb saying that I need the education I want to say are you insulting me? I keep my mouth just to embarrass Me in the world uh my god man you are wrong You are the one with the problem Not me.

[@tensevo]

Very Bullish on Facebook - I have great respect for Mark Zuck as a business man even though I disagree with his politics on occasion.

[@jL-zw9ke]

Strange how he talks in a determinate yet indeterminate way

[@kourakis]

What movie was that at 39:00?

[@vivekbuddhbhatti]

What is the video clip @ 37:20 ? Is it from any movie? Can someone tell me?

[@bourbonchicken]

No Country For Old Men.

[@CJinsoo]

what to do with the money? Ecclesiastes-there is nothing new under the sun

[@ravindertalwar553]

NO TEARS NO FEARS ONLY CHEERS AND CHEERS FOR ALL NEARS AND DEARS

[@bahroum69]

Well I have to disagree on the "certain" character that Thiel uses to qualify the Chinese. They are quite the opposite of "certain". In Chinese culture, everything is based on adapting to ever changing and unknown circumstances. They are purely pragmatic in addressing issues. Even when said issues could not be foreseen by applying their old set of beliefs. While in our current eastern societies, we are so ideological that we prefer to ignore issues that disrupt our ideological model. We act as though theses problems didn't exist, until they blow up in our face because it's too late. Recognising them would mean accepting that our beliefs were wrong. As time passes we are less and less capable of doing so. So when a glitch occurs, the system freezes and take ages to reconfigure (one day it might not even reboot). I feel like that is an indicator that our civilisation is nearing the end, rapidly decaying. Trying to make reality fit our beliefs has never played well over the course of the centuries. Whereas the Chinese don't hold strong beliefs about the future. As such, when a problem occurs, the global system gets reconfigured almost instantly because it is not dragged down by ideology out of synch with reality. And before you say anything, China is not communist anymore. I has not been for a long time. That is just an anachronic reminiscence of their past that is used to justify their authoritarian regime.

[@hindsightbymchview6554]

The statement is 100% spot on. When Pres. 习 back in Jan 2017 announced the new way forward, “The New Normal”, upon the first time not hitting the GDP targets by the previous year close I was astounded. The entire country and economic focus pivoted on a dime and charged forward. It’s unfortunate that the language and culture are seen as “too difficult of an obstacle” for outsiders to get past which allows gross generalizations cloud what’s really going on. Huge lessons to learn in the Chinese ability to adapt to and take advantage of change, everything is fluid nothing is black or white.

[@StanislavKozlovsk]

Very interesting discussion

[@BobBogaert]

3:20 The question if a given invention, a given start-up, a given scientific discovery would have happened anyway is not that difficult. Almost each time you go deeper into the history of a scientific achievement than just pop-science, you'll find that there were many researchers focusing on a singular topic, and who gets full credit is often chosen by either who is the first to publish, or who described the idea in the most convincing and most concise way. In most cases it's decided by who understands the idea the deepest, meaning who can predict most consequences and make most useful predictions, and then back these up with evidence. Of the greatest ideas in history, such as calculus (Newton + Leibnitz), evolution (Darwin + Wallace), special relativity (Einstein + Hilbert + Lorentz), quantum theory (Bohr + Heisenberg + Schoedinger + dozens of others), none of them come out of thin air. Same for every single start-up or invention. They are always standing on the shoulders of giants. And that's a beautiful thing. The myth of the lone genius is exactly that, a myth.

[@Changenow-ze2sl]

When gambling you diversify, to have some chance of success. But the future is not indefinite, you can define it. Thus dont diversify, put all your eggs in one basket. Be smart about it of course but dont waste your time and life.

[@facundomiranda3391]

The future is indefinite, dont fool yourself..... We are always playing with a % chances that we cant count.

[@Changenow-ze2sl]

@@facundomiranda3391 Possibly but the important part is to understand to what extent it can be definiate and if can be much more definiate than indefinite. Something to remember by the way is that the future can be definite: if two rocks move towards each-other in a void, we can predict their future perfectly, real life is the same only there are many more variables, but if you can minimize variables and understand as many of them as possible then you can plan for a definite future.

[@honkhonk8009]

I agree with this dude honestly. I think its just better overall to be optimistic and determinate over the future. I think pessimists are just redditors and gay retards. Thats the base line that you go to if your a legitimate NPC. Elon Musk type people are W's just because of how deterministic they are, regardless if its optimistic or not. Theres a point where you have to make a choice, where you have to SIMPLIFY shit, and make a DECISION. People that stress over infinite possibilities are just cucking themselves over honestly.

[@BenWeeks]

44:10 Darwinistic A/B testing. Which can work if you have billions of years. But as a startup money can run out.

[@metajefe8719]

Mind blowing! I wish this had come under my radar 10 years ago 😂 Ridiculous how the people in Germany talk about, Peter Thiel. Not every Body for sure but a significant It's insane. Total brainwashed

[@Mausju]

God I love this man

[@filitico]

these are used to create space to fit in concepts that are not read from a script.

[@marcelhorstmann6435]

It's simply awesome. Really had to laugh out quite loud at 25:30 :-D

[@twinklemoments3643]

Wow

[@taxberrymochi]

Why people just don't ask people like me ?

[@TheJohnnybowman]

why does he pick 1982 - 2007 as the age of US indeterminacy? If Thiel believes that regulation stifles innovation, it's surprising to hear that our indeterminacy started in the Reagan era. Reagan also increased R&D spending a good deal starting in 1983.

[@cruzokannan]

I guess Peter forgot to account cultural aspects in eastern saving mentality. 😟

[@zack907]

Varun Kannan I believe that those differences are a result of which quadrant they lie in.

[@nicholasn.2883]

Oh shit. I forgot I read his book

[@Stranger_In_The_Alps]

He sounds like Nic Cage

[@Gothisown]

Go to a Special Olympics sporting event then look in the mirror and say wow I’m pretty lucky

[@7smallfry]

13:39 why does he put china as determinate pessimistic?

[@seanpierre1338]

pessimistic about people: people cannot be trusted with freedom, therefore totalitarian communism is necessary. determinate: government has total control, therefore, there is no uncertainty

[@morthim]

37:17 unintelligible clip

[@NoName-vy8vu]

Jesus Christ can this guy not string a single sentence together?

[@osana_ad]

What movie at 38:00 ?

[@01Tacket]

no country for old men, very interesting movie, you should watch it

[@osana_ad]

thank you :)