The Tipping Point I Got Wrong | Malcolm Gladwell | TED

[@gfxpimp]

Malcolm should really write a book called "What I got wrong". I've read almost all of his books. I find them engrossing. But I think he gets many things wrong. This TED talk increases my respect for him. He should do more like this.

[@kurisensei]

He did a podcast after his disastrous debate with Douglas Murray. But he was wrong about what he said he got wrong in the podcast

[@healuv]

I feel he starts with a narrative first and finds data that supports his narrative.

[@andrewmeakin668]

​@@healuv almost everyone does this. It's lauded as "the scientific method", have a hypothesis and try to prove it. Takes a lot of conviction to notice you might be wrong and state that. There's actually a major issue in scientific and medical research where null hypothesis isn't published, meaning research is completed, the hypothesis found to be wrong, but this data isn't published, partly because the thinking is who wants to read about a hunch that is wrong.

[@swamidkbose]

scientific method is falsification paradigm of karl popper rather than finding data which is supportive

[@9y2bgy]

@@healuv That would be confirmation bias. What if he didn't blind himself to only the data supported his narrative, but having started with a narrative (hypothesis) and acquired the data, either confirmed or discarded his narrative?

[@vosechu]

I love that TED did this talk and I especially love that the woman doing the questions at the end asked him point blank if he was thinking about the effects on black people. This takes a lot of courage from all sides and I’m glad that we’re in a place as a country and a community to speak like this with each other. Thank you to Malcom Gladwell and to TED and everyone involved!

[@VFL0519]

When he was haunted by the ghost of white guilt? 😂 I think everyone involved is taking themselves quite a bit too seriously

[@VFL0519]

@@PhoebeFayRuthLouise your assumptions are wrong, as are most. Broken glass theory is true, stop and frisk was just the wrong solution.

[@daramurphy7193]

Malcolms mom is from Jamacia.

[@EdwardAtraghji]

The RIGHT to LIBERTY should not be a given. ONE is only FREE to the extent that one is willing to take the INTERNAL STAND to be TOTALLY RESPONSIBLE for EVERYONE and EVERYTHING. When we have ALL RISEN to this level of CONSCIOUSNESS then there would be no NEED for LAWS and LAW ENFORCEMENT. This is what needs to be taught in our schools from a very early age and emphasized in our institutions throughout our life. Otherwise, we would all be acting like the wild bull in the proverbial china store. The constitution ought to be changed.... ....Life, liberty (with responsibility) and the pursuit of happiness...

[@nechitagutie9159]

The courage to accept that you got wrong..I love his books.

[@PhoebeFayRuthLouise]

I appreciate the courage it takes to admit you were wrong and that your mistake had real negative impacts on people. Well done!

[@andybaldman]

Ok now pay is back some of the money we paid for your books. You know, because you were wrong.

[@JonnM]

I’m not sure it took any great courage for him to say he was wrong. He’s simply playing to a different gallery.

[@HM-xe8ml]

@@andybaldmanthis is some backwards logic. You paid for the book, and now he gets to laugh all the way to the bank 😂

[@andybaldman]

@@HM-xe8ml It's almost like you get my point.

[@thepagecollective]

He got wrong that in 1993 it was impossibly dangerous to be going home on the subway at 1 AM. Early 80s? Sure. 70s? Sure. 93? Not at all. I did it all the time. I rode the subway for a living making deliveries, and at 1 AM on a Saturday, the trains were pretty full.

[@stephanurkel7567]

"The pen is mightier than the sword." No one ever thinks police will reinforce a policy based on text from a book, or that parents of kids everywhere will start chronicling how long a child is doing a chosen vocation to make sure they hit their 10,000 hours. But this, this talk, is more than accountability... it's journalistic integrity. Which the world can use more of. Thank you Malcolm

[@PenandInk2012]

I have always liked Gladwell, but this...this admission of a mistake so honest and open...this is the way. We need way more of this honest discourse in society.

[@jplourde11]

Wisdom is the ability to see when you are wrong, empathy is the drive to tell people about it.

[@andybaldman]

And maybe he should pay some of the money he made back.

[@lawrenceadams6718]

Unfortunately, he's wrong in this video. He's conflating two ideas, and ends up wrong ...... again. His books are popular, but almost all of his material ends up wrong in the end.

[@AThirstyPhilosopher]

More of this! Id love to see TED be a place for examples of admitting mistakes, apologizing in meaningful ways, reparations, tips to young people on how to think critically and see other perspectives.

[@eugenetswong]

I am so amazed that the entire video is devoted to explaining him being wrong. It's definitely good to have more of this.

[@zenphony]

Agreed. Less certainty, more curiosity.

[@ak203]

It's called "faux humility" or "humble bragging."

[@tuckerfrd1]

@@ak203 . . . and your comment seems you got none of what he said. 100% certainty of a position may be wrong in time, and your comment will follow suit.

[@ak203]

@@tuckerfrd1 Sorry but don't understand your comment and watched this 6 days ago.

[@atfinthehouse8631]

Malcolm is a very insightful, introspective, intelligent human being. He might not be wrong. Societies change and evolve. But he’s willing to consider his own prior analyses and revisit, review and revise. Good for him. Good for us. Sets an example for others.

[@jjamespacbell]

It was his certainty that made the chapter memorable, it is the same today but 100 times worse as not only are more people able to communicate their certainties they are reinforced by search engines that filter and return only opinions that agree with them.

[@BerthaMcFee]

He not only IS wrong, he always was. That is literally THE point of this. Much (though obviously not all) of crime is cause by lack of opportunity. So if you get arrested for littering, and thereafter no reputable employer will touch you, then your arrest has created not just a little more crime, but a LIFETIME-worth of more crime. Littering is basically nothing; but when they cracking down on you for that, they eventually give you the choice of supporting yourself by selling drugs, robbery, etc.

[@AngelaNibley]

His curiosity and love for examining the truth is superseding his need to be defensive about being right and I think that’s a wonderful example to set for us all. If you can’t admit you’ve ever been wrong then you’ve failed to grow on two fronts. Normalize this!

[@prettyzen]

Inspo.

[@bruisersdilemma354]

Not sure he's ever been interested in finding the truth....

[@TheMrmoc7]

@@bruisersdilemma354 I agree. Personally, I think anyone who comes to a conclusion I don't believe is true is probably not really interested in finding the truth.

[@Tony818L]

I love that someone who is respectful and intelligent as him is going out of his way to say he was wrong! I hope we can all have this level of humility and self understanding.

[@chcarroll5164]

yeah, I thought the same until I saw the debate with Douglas Murry, nothing respectfil or humble about Gladwell

[@megb9700]

I admire people who can admit they were wrong, and question the situation again.

[@aaronbono4688]

This is a big problem in society today. Nowadays people seem to act like admitting you were wrong about anything is a sign of weakness.

[@sutats]

Let's see Dan Ariely attempt that.

[@michaelwu4678]

The irony is that admitting that you are wrong or as an extension of that, "admitting to fragility" of your argument only works if you have the social power and influence. You could be applauded as humble. Some random guy in the street admitting they are wrong will just labeled as wrong and ignored and any influencer or politician admitting to fragility will get no likes or votes. Malcolm G of 20 yrs ago that did that would have killed any chance of success.

[@thestandardbarber1708]

He's not really admitting he was wrong. He's bowing down to popular woke opinion to sandbag himself from being canceled. I have followed this author since the book The tipping point and have watched his persuasion bend

[@adodgygeeza]

The broken windows bit of broken windows actually still works. Keeping public spaces in a good state of repair does make people treat them better.

[@aaronbono4688]

And I don't think he's refuting that part.

[@glendapeace2061]

I came to say the same here. At the beginning he used Stop and frisk interchangeably with broken windows theory and made it sound like they are both one and the same, but they are not. Stop and Frisk does not work, the literal broken window theory does work.

[@lawrenceadams6718]

He's conflating "stop and frisk" with "broken windows theory". S and F is a constitutional violation. Broken windows continued in use and proves successful over and over in many places.

[@kevincurrie2052]

I remember being puzzled by Malcolm’s conclusion that broken windows policy was a factor in the drop in crime. I can see that having a sense of civic pride is a good thing, but I think civic inclusion is more important. Is it better to have everyone in the tent pissing outside than someone outside pissing in the tent. Try to include everyone in the game, then you will see less people making trouble on the sidelines. How to do this is beyond my abilities give everyone a hope and a reason and a future then we will all be better off.

[@lawrenceadams6718]

@kevincurrie2052 broken windows theory addresses physical order/disorder, social inclusion has to do with social order/disorder. Separate issues.

[@andrewbest5854]

Malcolm Gladwell is articulate and compelling public speaker. But I am concerned that he is making the same mistake in this Ted Talk as in the original Tipping Point: trying to draw broad conclusions where the data isn't sufficient. It becomes difficult in science to draw conclusions from an uncontrolled experiment when multiple variables are changing at the same time (there are statistical methods such as multivariant regression that can help). Crime levels in a city depend on much more than a stop and frisk policy. Economic conditions, demographics, family cohesion, education levels, and social programs all play a role. So it may be just as wrong to state that stop and frisk played no role in decreasing in crime in the early 2000s as that it did. This policy may have played a role in decreasing crime in the early 2000s, but by the mid 2010s, under evolving social conditions, it might no longer have played a role. Or maybe it did still play a role, and crime levels would have fallen even faster if the policy had been maintained. I think rather than saying "I was right" or "I was wrong", it might make more sense to say "I don't know" or "we can't draw that conclusion".

[@OnePlanetHuman]

this is the smart comment I was looking for and wanted to write something similar myself! Good job!!

[@Blumudus]

I will add: all of this mea culpa seems suspiciously in tune with the prevailing opinion in the academia, based on perceived minority victimization, so... If this is actually correlated with a flaw in the original reasoning, that's more like an extraordinary coincidence; that a re-thinking that seems to be based on cultural fads happened ALSO to be in line with the actual data. All kinds of theories can be justified through educated guesses, and they may seem compelling, but are they true? I could easily suggest that maybe the broken window effect is real, but stop and frisk isn't necessarily the answer; the two don't necessarily go together. One could also argue what matters is a widespread perception of order or of lawlessness; in a chaotic society, a police force that is erring on the side of policing everything is an enormous benefit for everyone, signaling a shift towards civility, an opportunity; but when order has been more or less re-established, maybe the same overpolicing may become a burden, especially if it's perceived to target only certain racial groups.

[@eugenetswong]

Andrew, I agree. I want to add that the even though the unconstitutional stops might have actually reduced crime, eliminating the unconstitutional stops might have reduced it even further, because those stops might have created more problems. I'm not trying to justify the stops. I'm just focusing on the critical thinking.

[@danielconradie191]

I agree. Maybe the drop in crime is attributed to gentrification.

[@zenphony]

This is what I was thinking the entire time I watched. In a way he’s continuing the same guessing gam and this one of the reasons why academics don’t use his works as reference resources and encourage students that they will not be quoting reliable sources by pointing his way.

[@kevinmeachem2138]

I would posit that “stop and frisk” is a misapplication of the broken window model. A broken window is an example of something wrong/illegal/broken that can be objectively observed. Thinking a young man walking down the street is likely a criminal, is highly subjective/biased thinking. Fixing a broken window is doing the small things that make an area seem as though no one cares about it; if people observe that someone cares about an area, makes others respect it more.

[@robsterTN]

I’m a criminologist and I agree that the focus of the broken windows perspective, and the community policing era that followed, went in the wrong direction. It focused on publicly visible - and easily targeted - examples of crime and disorder while ignoring the root causes like structural economic inequality. Unfortunately, as Gladwell says here, society seems to have not learned this lesson yet.

[@stevebenson8806]

I agree completely! I have a degree in criminology and I have been putting the broken window theory into practice for years. However, I don’t violate anyone rights in doing so! I organize volunteers to clean and repair urban spaces, giving it the feel that someone cares for the place. In the book, he describes the efforts they took to clean the subway cars. That’s “broken window theory” not the racist profiling that happened with stop and frisk.

[@Mahomesdagoat1234]

He was right about the broken window theory, but racist people took it the wrong way and too far

[@MateDrinker33]

He also conveniently forgets that “stop-and-frisk” was not advocated for in the “Goetz” chapter of his book.

[@kirkl9370]

I lived in the West Village from ‘93 and read the Tipping Point when it came out. As a fellow Canadian I would recognise Gladwell in local cafes and was always caught between admiration and suspicion as I realised he was just another over confident observer. I remember thinking that his application of Broken Windows missed the point. Broken Windows was about community involvement in clean up and local pride. Getting rid of the subway graffiti, cleaning up abandoned lots, engaging local art, etc were all effective in reducing crime in NYC after the 80s. Stop & Frisk was only a minor aspect of the turnaround and it may have done as much bad as good.

[@tugcecar]

I must have read "The Tipping Point" quite a few times, enjoying every single time but also inevitably thinking that Gladwell was jumping to conclusions at certain "points". However, this talk is so impressive. The courage it must have taken to say these! I sense many sleepless nights. Thank you.

[@أحمونرحمن]

"It's not what a person doesn't know that gets them into trouble, it's what they know for sure that just ain't so.”

[@a.c.m.2336]

Does 'broken windows' really equal 'stop and frisk'? Can't the police respond to crimes---subway fare evasion, shoplifting, drug use in public--without violating people's rights?

[@AdventureOtaku]

Yes, and that is why he is still wrong. Mr. Gladwell is an amazing writer and very engaging speaker but he isn’t a scientist. Yes, stop and frisk was stopped but all those other things continued - and I lived in NYC at the time, actually, not far from where he lived.

[@monster77777]

What is he talking about??? Stop and Frisk is not the same thing as Broken windows.

[@twelvecatsinatrenchcoat]

Democrats don't want crime to stop. They see crime as a form of reparations.

[@justascomplicated8182]

@@monster77777 Stop and frisk was the logical conclusion of the time to broken windows. Petty crime --> serious crime stop and frisk (racial profiling) --> less petty crime stop and frisk --> less serious crime

[@ernststravoblofeld]

Do police have to respond to everything? Why? Couldn't other agencies deal with this?

[@kimsnyder5456]

Being able to see we had it wrong and being able to admit accountability... these are tools we all need for society to grow. Thank you.

[@masterchinese28]

"This is what I believe happened now." Learning is journey, not a destination.

[@MichaelGilboe]

I commend him for admitting he was wrong about a major issue he was a part of. People learn. People change their minds. Circumstances change. And far too many people hold on to an old position without ever rethinking it. More people should do this.

[@severtone263]

I dont even know this guy, but I greatly admire and respect his ability to communicate especially in saying he was wrong about something. If we all could do that this world would be a far better place. Respect!

[@toddashton9696]

Correlation does not imply causation. Great talk Malcolm. I appreciate your reflecting thoughts on the Tipping Point.

[@kevinslover100]

I absolutely love that he doesn't use slides. Incredibly refreshing. More importantly, his mea culpa is important, but even more important is his realization that certainty isn't the postitive trait he believed it was at the time. This is what should happen as we age; we learn from our mistakes and change ourselves so that we can be better tomorrow because of what we learned today. I live by a mantra that states "I reserve the right to be smarter tomorrow" and it has always served me well. It acknowleges that I'm falible and encourages me to be and do better. May that be our collective mantra as well.

[@mjears]

This is the *most* hopeful thing I have seen this week. This talk helps my faith that good can somehow prevail, as right now America is facing a future of unprecedented evil.

[@mygirldarby]

We are in huge trouble. I'm not sure our country will survive this. Last time we had resistance. This time, there's a vacuum and it is being filled with the dregs.

[@nikimoore]

There's a logical fallacy here. Malcolm is talking as if 'stop and frisk' was the only aspect of 'broken windows', and that crime is the only aspect of urban decay. The 'broken window' approach is very successful in urban regeneration and should not be dismissed like this.

[@thekaxmax]

That's the mistake this talk is all about. Watch it again.

[@kobiianardo]

@@thekaxmax you're proving her point EXACTLY... the problem is that "mistake" is the ONLY thing this talk brought up about "broken windows". Like Niki said, if you... oh nvm i just realized I lost you by having a sentence longer than 3 words.

[@thekaxmax]

@@kobiianardo If you check out some of his stuff that's more than 125 min long you will see his goes into the depth that nikimoore wants. And I may have just lost you. Oh, well.

[@Mef637]

Fully agree. Malcolm is completely wrong. It took time but crime DID go back up. NYC is now again a crime ridden dump

[@basengelblik5199]

Admitting your mistakes on a stage like this ... that's rare.

[@mvrao29]

I must thank youtube for the recommending my hero, Gladwell's Ted talk🙏

[@platero814]

Decency is very much appreciated in these dark days. That was very brave to do.

[@andrealingenfelter576]

I also am not so sure that broken windows approach is equivalant to stop and frisk. Windows refers to not ignoring smaller property crimes, tending to them to keep up the neighborhood……stop and frisk is stop anyone who “might commit a crime or be thinking about one” with no criminal activity….just walking down the street. That is harassment.

[@alainc.9000]

The broken window theory is about prosecuting little crime to avoid escalation toward worst crime. Stop and frisk is about harassing people because of how they look. One has nothing to do with the other. One is based on facts, someone has committed a little crime, the other is based on an assumption that someone is a criminal. One is about education and the other is about discrimination. He still doesn’t know what he is talking about.

[@FallenmanProductions]

I thought the exact same thing! Nicely stated...

[@TJ-kk5zf]

does he ever?

[@louisaruby5385]

Totally agree. He makes no distinction

[@thegreenloafer]

Yes! It’s almost like he’s forgotten what the original theory was about (which is that humans behave in accordance to their surroundings). A person walking along a street with a lot of litter strewn about is more likely to drop their trash on the floor than a person walking along an immaculately clean street. We adjust our behaviour based on ‘reading the room’, picking up on small clues that point to how we should act and what we perceive we can get away with.

[@bert3163]

I will humbly admit that Malcolm Gladwell was the catalyst to my adoption of reading as a pastime. Somewhere between high school and grad school, I’d come to see it as a chore and a pastime of the cultural elites. Thanks, Malcolm, for making it fun again.

[@ellioto8708]

Knowledge = power 👊🏽 Glad you found your way back into reading!!

[@felicidadthompson1931]

This kind of honesty is very rare. This may be the last of its kind. Thank you dear Malcolm.

[@prettyzen]

DEF not the last. You are also welcome to be a great example.

[@AlistairAVogan]

Before: “I thought that if you wanted to win over an audience, you had to communicate certainty.” Now:”… You’re more capable of winning over an audience when you admit to the uncertainty and fragility of your position. People want that. They like that.” I really enjoy reading his books and listening to Revisionist History. But I’d suggest reading this again not for what you want to hear - but for what is there.

[@michelehuston8247]

This talk did two things for me. One, it reinforced the awe and respect I hold for this man and two, I will view most non fiction as the writer’s POV, no matter how confident they seem.

[@MartaGuzman-bh6cg]

Muy bueno! Admitir los errores cometidos y no repetirlos me parece alentador Errar es humano, perseverar en el error es torpeza Esto último lo aprendí de una maestra de mí escuela primaria en 4to grado

[@MartaGuzman-bh6cg]

Muchas gracias!!❤

[@craigg5051]

“I believe what happened now,” well said. Broken windows was one of many things happening, not the only thing. There a very few absolutes. Good talk

[@jonathanmilo]

Gladwell is embodying the integrity of scientific knowledge. Admitting error, partial error, or even near total error but for a few valuable ideas (or, most painfully but still honorably, a total absence of value at all!) is the essence of honest inquiry. May we all find an appreciative solace in Gladwell’s honesty. There is another less known factor in the diminishing crime rates of the mid-nineties: Roe V Wade There have been multiple studies done on why crime rates dropped in the mid nineties that confirm the (in)famous RvW decision directly impacted a drop in crime in the 90’s. It should be obvious: It dramatically curtailed the birth of unwanted children.

[@darbyl3872]

That case was in what year???

[@jonathanmilo]

@@darbyl3872 You know. Abortion is legalized in ‘73, and twenty years later there’s a 50% drop in violent crimes in major metropolitan areas. Nationwide there’s a 43% drop in homicides. Multiple factors are of course involved, but most studies have shown that RvW was the major contributing factor. Follow it down if you want, but legal abortion saved millions of lives.

[@tiburd7]

While I applaud Malcolm's new appreciation of uncertainty and humility, I note that a significant portion of the public actually craves claims of certainty (think of followers of cults, fads, etc.). I therefore wonder whether Malcolm would have been invited to this stage if he had not previously staked out a position of certainty in his earlier books and thus built his following.

[@prettyzen]

INCREDIBLE 👏 I cried and re-watched, and this is a powerful moment in humanity: a talented human learning from their mistakes and trying to be better. I saw myself in both the woman and man in this talk. Thank you so much.

[@heidelbergaren5054]

I have so missed intelligent people conversing in meaningful ways

[@prettyzen]

YES...we are in a drought in that it isn't as accessible. You have to search and just read books.

[@jimmiller5600]

Well, we just renewed our subscription for loony-tunes for another four years.

[@guym6093]

​@@jimmiller5600That is a very sad but true statement. How is it that a law and order party can use him as an example of lawfulness. Bazaaro world.

[@jimmiller5600]

@@guym6093 And now we have Trump.

[@guym6093]

@@jimmiller5600 I thought that's what you meant by the four subscription to the looneytoons...

[@agusbattocarol]

Great example of human evolution, learning and humbleness.

[@prettyzen]

well said

[@Nanna761]

It takes courage to admit mistakes. Malcolm has shown us once again how to be an inquisitive human being.

[@nittyjee]

"I thought that if you wanted to win over an audience, you had to communicate certainty. And now I realize that's actually backwards, that you're more capable of winning over an audience when you admit to the uncertainty and the fragility of your position. People want that. They like that, they appreciate that spirit far more. And people are much more likely, I think, to be suspicious of someone who seems falsely certain." - Malcolm Gladwell That was the last sentence he said. It was surprising to me that people feel this way, and it changes my approach to life, and takes a weight off my own shoulders.

[@spigelsound]

16:04 "You’re more capable of winning over an audience when you admit to the uncertainty and fragility of your position. People want that, they like that. They appreciate that spirit far more. And people are much more likely to be suspicious of someone who seems falsely certain." This aged badly pretty quickly!

[@markmnelson]

Ah just a one word correction: “_Intelligent_ people want that. They like that. They appreciate that spirit far more.” As opposed to the mob.

[@roudys]

Malcolm Gladwell is Canadian. We apologize all the time. One might say we're known for it. I'm sorry if that's too in your face....

[@njp1539]

I am French Canadian living in the US... I do this, apologise a lot, I wonder why that is...

[@1fearlesswoman]

Lol. You got that from the British

[@smallstudiodesign]

As a Canadian, saying “ *sorry* “ has a range of meanings beyond an apology.

[@tamravarda4161]

Wish our society was raised with the respect to apologize

[@sureshadusumilli4960]

An honest reappraisal of an earlier position is what journalism and writing is all about. It takes courage and integrity to do so and Malcolm Gladwell has shown both. Qualities that unfortunately are in short supply these days. Thank you.

[@dwightwilliams5892]

Respect to Mr. Gladwell for the apology and the courage to make it.

[@tieronspear9606]

Love the way this brother thinks and his accountability.

[@olwethusilo7155]

Well done Malcolm! This was a great listen - Dave Chang (on his podcast) asked food critics to do something like this to review their reviews years later & reflect on their thought process. Any form of criticism benefits from this.

[@bob___]

I don't think I ever thought that stop-and-frisk was the same as broken windows theory. For example, you could implement broken windows theory by being really aggressive about cleaning up graffiti. (It's not fun if it's gone the next day)

[@allegrodancearts152]

That was my takeaway years ago. Kind of like keeping my house uncluttered. When Malcolm mentioned the stop and frisk in this talk, it was like hearing it for the first time...times and thinking have changed and/or huge blind spot? Thanks for your comment.

[@hartgetzen7867]

Exactly.

[@finalascent]

Hamfisted stop and frisk without articulable suspicion or observation of a crime in progress was/is wrong and counterproductive. However, my understanding is that when NYC's leadership impelled police to be more rigorous about confronting and arresting "petty criminals" it served two functions - those offenders often had outstanding warrants for more serious charges, and of course it helped to shore up "broken windows."

An inconvenient truth is that the vast most of public policy is largely built on aspirational values, misconceptions, and bias rather than data, science, or an ability to admit fault.

[@thromboid]

...or, worse, covert appeasement of lobby groups!

[@domteewhy52]

Great delivery. I live by the fundamentals of “don’t believe everything you read. Even if you wrote it”. The trouble of education and open mindedness is we have to be wrong a lot to learn such powerful lessons and even then , it doesn’t stop. We will get to be wrong again and learn from it. Chalk it up to both the best and worst parts of the human experience

[@DavidCornwall-m3u]

It is also possible that broken windows may have contributed to an improvement in New York as it was at that time but that the better New York which emerged (whether due to broken windows or not) had the conditions in which a move away from broken windows could cause a further improvement. I'm not saying I believe this - but I'm not sure the evidence makes it clearly wrong. I really liked the talk but there can't be variable control in matters like these so it's not cut and dry. The inital conditions are very different. It's great that the city has been able to move away from broken windows and happily all the evidence suggests it should not go back to those injustices. There can be two tipping points here, so I don't know that I MG was necessarily wrong on this. Very humble to address this though. Much love.

[@loz6441]

I think this could be true - maybe stop+frisk was positive initially (on crime, but not on the happiness of the people frisked!), and once things had improved the lack of inclusion/respect caused by stop+frisk became a drag on further improvement. I'm not saying stop+frisk based on appearance was ever ethical or constitutional - just saying that intrusive policing might have had a positive effect on crime when things were _really_ bad.

[@DrDanAllosso]

I've been super critical of Malcolm Gladwell for years. This video is HUGE. I'm so impressed with this older Gladwell. Yes, "You're more capable of winning over an audience when you admit to the uncertainty and the fragility of your position," because you're trying to be a human rather than imagining yourself a god.

[@DrSerendip]

This discussion and question period can be applied to a number of disciplines. I applaud Malcolm Gladwell’s willingness to own up to his error or limited view at the time of writing The Tipping Point. If only other people in positions of leadership would be so honest. I am reminded of a podcast in Pitch Fork Economics with MIT economist Anna Stansbury who did a study of economic diversity in the economics profession. Sometimes our own position, where we find ourselves at a point in time and place or our background and life experience influences the questions we ask and therefore the answers we generate.

[@prettyzen]

Money overshadows empathy in those who view money equal to their own self-worth.

[@estherpettigrew3042]

THIS is the foundation of growth and maturity: the ability to see the errors of your past, recognize their causes, repair their damage, and add skills/processes to avoid similar misters in future.

[@189Bearshed]

Stop and Frisk and “broken windows” are two separate things. They are not the same, never were.

[@dq9587]

Well done! Thank you for your honesty and courage, Mr Gladwell 🎉 Bravo.🙌

[@Edwordless]

Thanks for revisiting this. However, there are some ongoing flaws with this analysis as well. One mechanism well researched for behavior change is interruption and redirection. That may be part of the explanation for the decline. In addition without some sort of experimental reversal, these anecdotes tell an incomplete story at best, and don’t provide enough control over the variables to make a firm conclusion. Finally, something can dually be effective, like stop and frisk or policing minor crimes, and unethical at the same time. It’s important moving forward to do deeper dives to better understand the mechanisms around the ebb and flow of crime, so that we can better plan and minimize it.

[@nintishia]

Another thought that occurred to me is as to whether the factors leading to the tipping point are dependent on the social context. That would however mean that most tipping points could not be reproduced for the same population in the future.

[@roudys]

It looked to me that he was arguing against making "firm conclusions."

[@mikelundrigan2285]

Malcolm is one of my favourite authors! Read most of his books, started with the Tipping Point. I saw the world in a whole new way after that! Even if everything has not proven to be totally accurate, it is still an excellent book imo! The fact that he now admits it is kudos for him! Change your thinking when new info. comes your way has always been a useful tool and how we move forward!

[@Estigy]

Maybe Police stop-and-frisk'ing innocent people was not a prevention of a "broken window" but a "broken window" itself. Thus removing this practice would actually decrease crime. ;-)

[@michaele.hylton51]

Impressed with Malcolm Gladwell being circumspect and for sharing his mea culpa. It’s too rare that experts ever publicly acknowledge how they were or may have been wrong about a topic or conclusion they once believed and now know to be wrong. Him doing so does, to me, provide an even higher level of esteem for his understanding and view of something.

[@bruisersdilemma354]

Check out the "Monk Debates" and get back to me homie...He got exposed as an incompetent hack...

[@sooma-ai]

Malcolm Gladwell reflects on his mistake in explaining New York's crime drop in 'The Tipping Point'. He admits he was wrong about broken windows policing, as crime continued to fall after stop-and-frisk ended. Gladwell emphasizes the importance of acknowledging uncertainty in journalism.

[@blueview2you]

I just listened to this 3 days after the 2024 presidential election. Only with a caveat do I agree with Gladwell’s conclusion that “people” want thoughtful expressions/explanations of opinions rather than certainty, rather than emphatic declarations that an opinion is right. My caveat is that people differ widely from each other on that preference and any one person can differ on their preference depending on the subject. Know your audience. Warm up an audience to open-mindedness if you realize their starting point calls for it. And if your read of the audience is that only certainty speaks to them, work with THAT audience. If the audience is reading your message rather than listening, of course explanations have a better chance of getting through.

[@guru47pi]

It's wonderful to see someone admit they got something wrong, but 'broken windows' didn't start with him 25 years ago. It started far earlier, in the 80's and early 90's. Also, enforcing simple laws like jaywalking, public urination, etc is still useful, just don't do stop and frisk of people who DIDN'T commit a crime. The lesson isn't 'don't enforce minor crimes' it's 'don't hassle people who have not committed a crime.' Put another way 'stop and frisk' is not equivalent to 'broken windows' or 'responsive community policing.' it's just one tactic NYC used

[@Michael-ul7kv]

exactly right

[@BlackkTiger]

I never understood the connection between broken windows theory and stop-and-frisk. Broken windows theory was about fixing actual, albeit small, problems in a community, such as property damage and minor crimes, especially ones which were highly visible. It was inherently reactive, not proactive. It was not about punishment or zero-tolerance. Its preventative efficacy came from signalling that the community cared about even small issues and, by extension, that escalating problems were unacceptable. If anything, it should have encouraged investment in community policing and non-police, community-based strategies toward crime reduction and social investment. I've always been fairly confident that Bratton, Giuliani and the NYPD deliberately misrepresented the theory in order to justify racist policies that they wanted to implement no matter what.

[@charlesjohnson4442]

I like your take on the broken window theory. Here is mine on stop and frisk. I cannot know what is was like to be a NYC cop back then. However, for at least the last 30 years you would be fired for repeatedly searching persons of interest if you could not articulate a valid reason why the person you were "frisking" probably had a weapon. Definitely read Terry v. Ohio for the start of the case law. Looking "suspicious" is not a legal reason and that's what courts have ruled over and over again on. You do not get to become a police officer unless you know this case law like the back of your hand. No police officer will legally be allowed to search you if he sees a bulge in your pocket that looks like a baggie for drugs. Stop and frisk is only about weapons. I love Gladwell, but not sure why he conflates the two. Can't say how NYPD was run back then but as lawsuit costs against departments grew larger-- you better believe every cop was retrained or fired quickly.

[@DavidLewis-v4m]

I wonder if the fundamental theory of "broken windows" was sound and just woefully misapplied. What if improving neighborhoods, literally fixing windows, scooping up trash, and making things look nicer at your own expense reduced crime? I've noticed that bad neighborhoods always look bad. They're filled with trash and boarded up windows, and you feel unsafe. Maybe that plays a part; for instance the feeling of being unsafe causes you to lash out more easily. Has anyone tested cleaning up a bad neighborhood and making it look like a super fancy part of town and seeing what that does?

[@TheRescueDogs]

That is literally what broken windows theory actually is, not stop and frisk. It's exactly what you described. One broken window leads to more damage being done because it's the perception nobody cares in the area. You described it just as it was found to be in the original study that led to broken windows theory.

[@pneumarian]

Yeah, it has been tested, it's called "gentrification." Realestate values rise, so governments increase property taxes, so the few landlords who weren't already raising rent are forced to join in... In the end the poor have to leave, thus eliminating from the area those without the resources to hide their faults. The only solution I can see is for the majority of individual lives to be governed by what the KJV calls "Charity." Then they would be safe to rely on, which would help engender a sense of hope. (& we'd stop charging people for putting in thier own resources to make life beautiful.)

[@markkoenig5869]

Thanks!

[@swurvydel]

The counter to this are places like SF and LA that have decriminalized petty crime and the crime in those places sky rocketed.

[@ConniePretula]

This is a good premise for all journalism and media. The admission of saying they got it wrong and didn’t think about what they are or were saying and how it can and did affect peoples lives. In reality, it is about popularity and the more drama they can add to a story and their platforms, the more people they have watching.

[@claudecyr8502]

Levitt and Dubner studied the drop in crime in NY in the '90s and it was almost entirely attributed to the legalisation of abortion following Roe v. Wade in the '70s. This makes a lot of sense. Policing only explain between 10 and 20%.

[@robsterTN]

And other researchers have looked at that claim with different interpretations.

[@malamalinka]

Like anything in society it’s probably a combination of many factors. The Roe vs Wade impact on drop in delinquency should not be underestimated. It allowed women from poorer backgrounds to gain control over when they would have children, rather force them to bring up children up into further poverty.

[@claudecyr8502]

@@malamalinka Exactly !

[@loz6441]

And hopefully, even though Roe v Wade was dropped at the federal level, states like NY will create sensible laws that permit abortion up to a reasonable period (4 or 5 months?) without creating a war between the pro-choice and pro-life people.

[@matthewhenry7539]

This is a Masterclass on Growth and Humility as a Cultural Leader. Kudos to him… we can only hope other leaders will find it in them to do the same.

[@dannakiel2650]

I am concerned that we are overlooking a key point here. While like everyone I respect his brilliance, he is also a biracial Canadian (Jamaican Mother and English Father) who came here and adopted the lens racism and white supremacy that insidiously hypnotizes migrants and immigrants alike into points of view that DISREGARD the humanity of African Americans in this country without batting an eye. Admission of flawed point of view does not repair broken hearts or sympathetic nervous systems shattered by stop and frisk. And reflecting that he was speaking to the moment does not indemnify him from the irreparable damage, anxiety and suffering endured by so many at the hands of a policy that while he did not create it, his work still amplified making him complicit in its outcomes. Much Respect to him and this talk but I will wait for a sequel that considers a bigger point of view than just a moment in time, but one that lets the humanity of the disenfranchised be his guide.

[@FarideLadak]

I read “The Tipping Point” back then, and as much as I appreciate that Malcolm Gladwell can admit that his conclusion then doesn’t stand the test of time. I have to admit though, that the thought process he was imparting then was very thought provoking and he has continued to write very thought provoking stories, books ever since. As many realize that life is fluid and adapts to constant changes, same as us being adaptable to seasons which manifest differently each year, especially these days. That’s the beauty of data analytics, it can provide clarity within context.

[@lancefron1]

I understand accepting partial guilt if your words are accepted as the absolute truth. But Gladwell's work is by definition 'opinion pieces' - very insightful, but not based on self-collected research data, which in itself should be prefaced with: 'this is true now.'

[@jasonbourne4155]

I believe it takes strong character and integrity to admit to having been wrong about our proclamations, especially for a highly-celebrated author such as Mr Gladwell. Having read many of his works, and after watching this talk, I have increased respect for him. I wish more public figures would follow his lead. Peace.

[@rjlavallee3575]

10,000 hours. Broken Windows. I've never been a Malcolm Gladwell fan and have always bristled when friends espouse his thoughts as gospel. Notice how he subtly throws journalists under the bus and much of the crowd applauds. I'm happy to see him standing here and giving a mea culpa, but there is still a lot of hubris in his delivery, even in his emphatic profession that you can "win over people" when you admit the uncertainty of the your position. Writers know writing is about knowing your audience, and I think Malcolm was very lucky to have accidentally found an audience ripe for seeing the world through his lens. Good on Malcolm. Good on TED. Still a bit self-righteous. And as @gfxpimp says below, he should do more of this, and love @gfxpimp's idea of him writing a book "what I got wrong."

[@tonyhill2318]

The primary cause of the crime drop was roe v. Wade, as researched by Steven Levitt et al. It's an uncomfortable explanation, but it is also the correct one. I would have hoped Malcolm would've gotten around to telling everyone the actual primary cause.

[@thromboid]

That was a pretty remarkable and potentially important finding. I've wondered if it's held up to scrutiny.

[@thromboid]

You don't have to watch too many Soft White Underbelly videos to be convinced that it might be true...

[@judyboyd9530]

I applaud you Malcolm. We need more journalists like you. We also need to evaluate how we view the people around us. I do believe that the media keeps us in turmoil most of the time.

[@SolveFixBuild]

I don’t remember the “stop and frisk” being a huge part of the story - granted I read that book over 15 years ago. Enforcing penalties for literally broken windows and jumping turnstiles and peeing on the sidewalk still seems like a reasonable approach. Did they still e force those crimes after the Floyd case? Also we were in economic rise trends in both 1993-2000 and 2013-2019. Could that have played a more significant role in crime dropping? Usually crime and economic prosperity are anti-correlated.

[@delancyj67]

The Freakonomics podcast actually has an episode saying that crime and the well-being of the economy are not correlated. This idea is also perpetuated by journalists and politicians.

[@leonardodalongisland]

I'm a fan of Gladwells (as a writer/speaker and runner) but I not only disagree with the "anti-broken window" theory, I have evidence to support my argument; I live in the suburbs and occasionally when out for a hike or bike ride I see litter on the roads/brush...when that litter isn't picked up, inevitably some else will see it and (be triggered) to think that it's okay to throw their trash out of their car window....When I pick up said trash-I don't see any more it (at least not in the same spot). The fact is, one coffee cup, one MCDonald's box or one empty pack of cigarettes are all "Broken windows." They incourtage other (disrespectful-pigs) to throw their trash on our streets/planet. We live (unfortunately) among many disrespectful, uncaring, selfish, stupid people-we can't give them "encouragement" to do bad-as they will.

[@afterthesmash]

My own feeling is that Malcolm's brand was charismatic overstatement, and his fame largely derives from that. I became aware of Gladwell from his first TED talk, and I have always had reservations and neatly he ties his bows. Microsoft became a trillion dollar corporation on the back of illegal business practices in the 1990s, and they got to keep their ill-gotten gains, so I can hardly hold it against Malcolm, who has now at least accepted responsibility.

[@ellenraysmith4391]

Better than TED talks and KZbin snippets, read Gladwell’s books. He is a very stimulating writer. He presents unique reflections and ideas. Judge him on his writing, not his pedantry.

[@SteveBrant55]

Malcolm Gladwell admitting he was wrong... This is the lesson for our age! There are way too many people who think "Certainty in one's position is key to success"... when, as Gladwell says towards the end, admitting your idea may not be correct... that you are open to learning... is a much more powerful position to take. He is on the side of life-long learning now! (not life-long "smartest man in the room" behavior).

[@bruisersdilemma354]

Two words "Monk Debate"

[@WarrenAbrey]

I Like Gladwell’s books, and enjoy his podcast, and am comfortable saying that even while admitting he was wrong, his ego shines through claiming credit for why everyone believes something.

[@wells235]

It can be pride in his work without being unhealthy ego to claim some level of credit for the awareness.

[@naodobi196]

Great to see you Malcolm

[@davebeery_youtube]

I’m from LA and I visited New York in the 90’s and then about 25 years later in 2020’s. I was very surprised how different New York was 25 years later. It was filled with younger people (or seemingly younger since I’m older), a cleaner environment, seemingly safer (I saw younger single females walking alone in many places), and very few homeless or suspicious looking people wandering the streets and subway stations. I was expecting to see lots of homeless because it was in the winter. But I didn’t see any homeless encampments near freeway underpasses or in parks or in common spaces like subways stations. Just a few questionable persons in select places. It was a much different experience than I expected to see. Amazing. Congratulations, New York!

[@CookingDudeWhoCooks]

Stop and frisk was one component of the broken windows judicial system, but there were other components that were as important, or more important, than stop and frisk. The end result is that a societal intolerance of minor crimes results in a reduction of major crimes, and if perpetrators of all crimes, both misdemeanors and felonies alike, fear the repercussions of committing that crime, we all live in a safer place.

[@christinemjs157]

Proud of you Malcom 🤗 - you are an inspiration - love Chris Jonas - from high school EDSS ❤

[@jbueermann1]

What a great talk. However, he’s conflating Broken Windows and stop, question and frisk. Related but two different ideas. He also failed to understand , or at least to mention, that the NYPD was unique in the way it used SQF. He makes claims science can’t confirm. But, that being said, his “beliefs” about crime in NYC are interesting and compelling - just not backed by science. But I still love his books!

[@IntiMaldonado]

Bravo 👏 it takes a great human being to admit a public mistake like this and offer the lesson learned.

[@ThizzMarley]

he did a terrible job of explaining what reform actually brought down crime

[@georgenaugles5039]

What would you add to explain what you felt was missing?

[@ThizzMarley]

@ the why part

[@georgenaugles5039]

​@@ThizzMarleycan you elaborate please?

[@taibabajar]

I agree, I was left thinking “okay why did crime drop to the same level of Paris post 2013 then?” No explanation was given

[@searchingfortruth619]

His claim so that it just went away by itself. Just like diseases spike and fall, so too the crime. It mentioned the "natural intelligence of people" being a cause. I'm not sure if this is a claim about education, or saying that NYC jumped 30 IQ points in 10 years. But I agree, the why is totally obfuscated.

[@theriskid]

People embracing uncertainty in their positions, admitting that they might be wrong, feels like love to me.

[@schoenda]

Please help...it seems like Malcolm is conflating "broken windows" theory with "stop and frisk" policy. Am I missing something here?

[@joshmnky]

I do have great respect that he has come out to address his mistake. It's so rare. This man is guided by a real set of principles.

[@mdecav]

Wasn't broken windows mainly about being aggressive with arresting people who were doing petty crimes?

[@MichaelMyers-zf5nu]

My favorite author. Love all his books as they make me reflect and think outside of the box that I live in.

[@ctny]

So Malcom is claiming Stop-and-Frisk is unrelated to crime rate, or Stop-and-Frisk caused the crime rate to go up? It seems he is implying the later, with stats of crime rate falling after the policy was stopped. If so, what is the explanation? This Ted Talk just begs more questions.

[@montoyat1977]

It is extra poetic that "we need to say 'this is what I think' rather than 'this is fact'" is the message in a Ted Talk. The absurd level of conviction in a lot of Ted Talks pushed these out of my regular media consumption years ago. I try to find the best of each year but I don't have it in me to be a regular consumer.

[@ericlodgins3678]

Not buying it. Maybe broken windows was the impetus for setting a social norm. For example, would smoking in restaurants return if it couldn't be enforced. I don't think so. Social norms are powerful.

[@keng7758]

Huh? So you think crime dropped because of stop & frisk, and then once stopped, somehow social norms to not commit crimes is the reason? What data besides your gut suggests this?

[@nancyfox4525]

I've always admired Malcolm Gladwell. Love this! Thank you for accountability

[@ravibalaji863]

I was expecting he will say why it dropped after the stop of stop and frisk? What if the drop is because of fake cases stopped? What if the actual crime has gone up? Will it help to compare records of convicted crimes

[@searchingfortruth619]

It's really crazy cuz the drops were much smaller than the initial drop. And crime rates have risen again since 2018. The real problem with NYC is that they have neglected all infrastructure in order to pursue social policy.

[@grahamcweaver]

I love his writing. He’s a great story teller and his points are highly anecdotal vs data driven so not surprising. Kudos for admitting it.

[@jeffteza8644]

Malcolm you argue that the Floyd case removing stop and frisk caused the drop in crime. But you also implied that the beginning of stop and frisk (broken windows) reduced crime. These temporal events are classic 'fooled by randomness' causality traps. Crime might have continued to drop regardless of the Floyd cases outcome. Changing demographics, economic changes, changes to a concentrated number of repeat offenders (your tipping point arguments) all would have some causality and there could be many more. RARELY is life about 1 variable, I learned this by living 70 years on earth.

[@TheLtUhura]

He did not argue it CAUSED the drop in crime. He states crime continued to drop AFTER it ended. His reasonable conclusion is that the policy was not the original cause of the crime drop.