The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes | 538 Politics Podcast

[@Komadaki]

As far as Bernie Sander's hot take goes; to me it seems like the working class feels abandoned by the Democrats more so than actually have been abandoned. Maybe the next Democratic president just needs to do weekly or monthly podcasts a la FDR's Fireside Chats.

[@maknavickas]

Why not just give everyone UBI that has under 500k in assets? The means tested stuff just gives the other side the ability to claim(righty) that you are favoring some people over others.

[@Austin-fc5gs]

Or maybe they could promise and actually deliver more to the working class who has been abandoned by neoliberal/neoconservative policies Trump promised so much he had to speak with both sides of his mouth, kamala couldnt respond to how she'd be different than biden

[@TrentSLucas]

@@Komadaki stop doubting the voters. The democrats abandoned their base and embraced…the Cheney’s!!!!! How crazy is that. Look, I’m here for it. If the democrats want to lose every future election all you have to do is keep lying to the voters, and calling them bad names, and taking away their ability to vote in the party primary.

[@ATMOSK1234]

Limiting it to less then 500k assets is literally means testing.

[@maknavickas]

@@ATMOSK1234 Its not based on any personal characteristics that would anger people though, plus it would make a clear class distinction between citizens and noncitizeins, so that even poor citizens can understand that they are ina higher class than the undocumented population. A big problem was the amount of government spending per capita on new immigrants versus the spending on the poor who have been here for generations.

[@aliboley]

I agree with what others have said about the Sanders hot take but I would specify that I dont think Sanders was referring specifically to Biden Democrats of this past term but the Democrats since Clinton. Sanders hot take is the same thing he has been repeating since he went into office. I think his take is a long term view of the rightward turn of the Democrats. Biden’s leftward turn in the past 4 years is not enough to change the continuous pursuit of neoliberal policies which is also related to immigration and free trade (vs protectionist policies) or to go even further the Democrats (under Obama) support of Wall Street and not enough support of Main street after the great recession.

[@madelynzamecnik920]

why are all the comments on this video so weird?

[@rwrunning1813]

Your opinions on Bernie Sanders' statement are SO bad and this is why I can't take this podcast seriously. You CAN NOT campaign on being nice alone. You have to OFFER PEOPLE WHAT THEY ARE ASKING FOR. And don't even give me that "Biden tried to do Sanders' policies" crap. Biden didn't do ANYTHING. This has all just been neoliberalism doing what neoliberalism does.

[@Don-wv6ks]

The discounting of cultural issues is a miss. While she didn't campaign on them and avoided identity politics, they were a very large portion of her platform that got her nominated as VP. Then responding that her values didn't change as the only rebuttal was a miss. If she had her 2024 campaign without the previous stances it would have been different, but complete reversal without addressing on almost a dozen issues is a problem.

[@merrymachiavelli2041]

I think very often the commentariat, and society in general, can be a bit snooty about 'culture wars'. There's this idea that anyone who cares significantly about cultural issues in addition to, say, foreign policy or inflation is at best 'lowbrow', at worst terminally-online/bigoted/fanatical/insane. I think this leads to unappreciation of what proportion of people _do_ actually care about cultural issues. Sure, if you ask them their priorities, few are going to cite 'gender identity' or 'race-relations' (either the left or right spin) as #1 or #2, but I think that's at least a bit because you're judged as sorta nuts or out-of-touch if you do, even if you do actually think about those things more day-to-day than, say, US-China trade policy.

[@aa.8823]

You think people, who seriously consider voting on “they make operations in schools” or smth, make any distinctions between different Democrats? Hearing several times about a nonsense interpretation of some law or strange tweet is enough. It's not a thing any candidate controls. They might as well have lied about her previous stances, and it would've been just as effective.

[@maknavickas]

She literally was chosen for VP explicitly because of her gender and ethnicity.

[@rbu2136]

Where I live it’s DEMs caused inflation and mass illegal invasion and trans.

[@night_sky_livin8492]

I am about 9 minutes in and this is by far the worst political analysis I have heard so far. To compare an era where 1) democrats controlled the presidency, 2) there was conflict within the republican party over if running with trump is a winning strategy, and 3) a demoralized republican party, to todays era where 1) republicans control the presidency and senate, 2) trump won the popular vote, and 3) trump is willing to call out specific members of his party as rinos, is ludicrous. Over the past several elections, candidates that ran against trumps agenda have lost over and over and were replaced by trump idealogues. Since nearly all republican politicians are more worried about staying in office than actually going against trump, and trump is willing to get on the mic and say to his supporters, "this congressperson is helping the enemy and is against me", there will be more pressure than anything nancy pelosi could muster to keep republicans in line. Additionally, I don't think you understand, or are willing to ignore, the republicans role this past congress. Their role was to keep congress from doing anything, so they could run on, "look at how dysfunctional the government is, vote for me and I will reduce its size". And since democrats never call out republicans on the national level consistently, they are able to get away with it. I hope you are correct, but the political landscape has shifted so much over the past 10 years, that downplaying it is crazy to me.

[@User-r5g5f]

Democrats call out Republicans constantly, and they control the majority of the media to do it. They talk about “do nothing Republican Congress” somehow ignoring the fact that Democrats control two thirds of the legislative process, Senate and White House. Democrats want to straight up lie and act like they don’t have the upper hand 🤷‍♀️

[@MartinCHorowitz]

what is the typical percentage of ballots that only vote for the president???

[@asecmimosas4536]

Polling is far more art than science. So to say "tHatS nOt hOW mAtH wORKs" is a sort of a red herring. For one, every outcome within the margin of error is not usually understood to be equally likely, so to argue simplistically that it was a "coinflip" where the actual outcome would land within the margin of error is not accurate. Secondly, polling as an art isn't simple statistical data collection. It's as much an exercise in anthropology as it is in math. When you consistently miss in one direction, with 2 of the 3 times being a major miss and the third being a moderate but significant miss, I tend to think it reflects a missing insight on how the subjects to be polled are.

[@night_sky_livin8492]

I agree with this. Additionally, I feel like polls and pollsters are supposed to tell you an accurate story about the electorate. The story, i thought the polls were telling was one in which either, almost nothing had really changed about the electorate so it should look somewhat similar to the 2020 election, or that each side was becoming more entrenched in their views so that blue states would be bluer and red states redder with the swing states being pulled in both directions. However, the polls and analysis that I saw didn't indicate that nearly every single county across the nation would shift rightward. This is what I wanted from the polls and why I still feel like polling sucks.

[@humanbeastbox1003]

Exactly right. Polling is a data based technique used to gain insight into social movements (like politics). Having universally missed the T trend 3x in a row shows us the data techniques being used at best have a major blind spot. At worst, are unable to do what they claim to do. It seems virtually every country shifted R which is not a simple data error, rather it shows that ‘the math’ is not measuring the social movement. Not to say polling has no value, but the ‘math tells no lies’ argument is wrongheaded here. Pollsters must do a much more comprehensive job and be willing to admit the L, because lord knows we need them.

[@DroidFreak36]

My perception is that Biden mostly took a hands-off, neoliberal approach to the economy. I see Galen's point that he implemented some policies further left than the recent trend, but I would counter that by saying that he did very little of that, and there was very little messaging about it from the democrats either. It was extremely far from a sweeping embrace of left-wing economics. It seems like he mostly left things running on their course. And people are not at all happy with that course. Harris failed to promise any change to that course, either. She basically promised more of the same as what people have been experiencing, while Trump promised to do something about it (even though what he promised won't have the intended effect). So, yes, I do think that the Democrats have abandoned the working class by failing to present any significant leftist economic policy or narative.

[@natbarmore]

21:38 Stimulus contributed 3% to annualized inflation? I.E., basically nothing? Or 3 percentage points? I.E., about a third of the total inflation?

[@Nathanatos22]

24:29 Thank you so much. I keep hearing “the Democrats lost because of woke!” when the reality is exactly as stated here.

[@kcStranger]

I honestly wonder if the 2-point polling "miss" can't be largely accounted for by low-propensity voters and people who made up their minds at the last minute. (So, people who are basically impossible to poll.)

[@TrentSLucas]

18:00 you guys gave time to the crazy lady saying Iowa would go to Harris by double digits. You did that. You cannot deny it. That is political partisanship. That is confirmation bias. Do an honest self reflection; it will make you better in the future.

[@GSC.55]

She's a well renowned pollster who has provided reliable polls over multiple election cycles for both federal and state level elections - it was very hard to ignore her.

[@TrentSLucas]

@ it was obviously flawed. No reasonable person, without TDS that it, looked at that poll and thought she was right. She ruined her reputation with that last attempt to interfere in the election. No way any smart person seriously thought Harris would take Iowa by double digits.

[@kcStranger]

​@@GSC.55 And she would be the first to admit that she's only one pollster and that it would be wrong to trust her result implicitly.

[@adambuchbinder2791]

Nobody said that Iowa would go for Harris by double digits. Maybe don't make stuff up when you're chiding people for inaccuracy?

[@AdrianColley]

I remember that. It didn't happen the way you tell it. They reported on the poll but they clearly didn't believe it.

[@NicholasAdamsDPM]

In NC we did similar things with split tickets. I voted Trump but left governor blank. Not a chance I vote for Robinson. I think Lake is similar. She is a terrible candidate. Quality of candidates do matter to a lot of people.

[@Sitbear]

Just curious. What is it about Robinson that made you think he was a step too far? And why didn't Trump meet that requirement? Did you think the narratives about Robinson were true but all the reporting and court proceedings against Trump weren't true?

[@maknavickas]

I voted Trump but split ticket on the Senate race as well, because my senator Rick Scott is too focused on currying favor with party leadership over bringing federal funds to Florida which is what I believe the job of a Senator should be.

[@NicholasAdamsDPM]

@@SitbearTrump is fiscally conservative and socially moderate. The court stuff is all a witch hunt. Robinson is so far right socially that he is beyond crazy.

[@grumpyoldcat8302]

That makes absolutely zero sense. They are both fascists, there is literally no difference between Robinson and Trump other than race. You’re just telling on yourself

[@grumpyoldcat8302]

@@NicholasAdamsDPMBAHAHAHAHAHAHA Anyone who lived through the first Trump Administration and says he is FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE needs to have their mental competency evaluated. He is the king of big government atm

[@Erotemic]

Man, I love scrutinizing claims.

[@REB4444]

538 is a walking, talking pile of bad hot takes, lol. Your polling was a SHAM! No one believes you anymore!

[@Blues-4-the-Red-Sun]

Lay off the vocal fryyyYYYyYyyyYyyYy at the end of every sentence

[@brianmulholland2467]

It's the economy, stupid.

[@TheDilettante]

I spent my weekend in a hotel in Bangalore reading Why Nations Fail and sipping gin :)

[@BadOompaloompa79]

Don't need 538 if we aren't a democracy.

[@TheDilettante]

Galen's theory of the case in this episode and the last is INCREDIBLY compelling. He convinced me almost instantly.

[@dj4aces]

"What do you want the polls to tell you?" Honestly, the polls are used by people to tell them who to vote for. So if a poll in X state says "Trump +2", guess what?

[@deantait8326]

I believe Voters, let to his win 🤔

[@IfYouDontLikeItHereYouCanLeave]

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸TRUMP2028

[@adambuchbinder2791]

Are you familiar with the 22nd Amendment?

[@Austin-fc5gs]

@@adambuchbinder2791 its a trumper, answer is no