The Martingale Betting Problem

The Martingale Betting system claims that by doubling your wager after each loss, no matter how many times they lose in a row, a gambler is guaranteed to eventually win big. It’s considered foolproof, and mathematically it is… until it isn’t.
With the aid of a faithful blackjack-dealing robot friend, Kevin puts this 18th-century France gambling strategy to the test. How does expected value play a role? What about exponential growth? Here’s the real question: Does it actually work!?
** LINKS **
The Difficulty Of Faking Data by Theodore P. Hill
www.kkuniyuk.co...
Wizard Of Odds Streaks
wizardofodds.c...
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Twitter: / vsaucetwo
Facebook: / vsaucetwo
Hosted, Produced, And Edited by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: / kevlieber
Twitter: / kevinlieber
Website: kevinlieber.com
Research And Writing by Matthew Tabor
/ matthewktabor
VFX By Eric Langlay
/ ericlanglay
Huge Thanks Paula Lieber
www.etsy.com/s...
Select Music By Jake Chudnow: / jakechudnow
MY PODCAST -- THE CREATE UNKNOWN
/ thecreateunknown

[@Vsauce2]

My new podcast is about to launch! Subscribe right now to The Create Unknown channel so you know as soon as the first episode is uploaded. Thanks! kzbin.info

[@schregen]

Hi Vsauce! I am Vsauce! 🔥

[@saunamorrison7092]

I love everything vsauce

[@eggsack]

You do this with bitcoin bits on a 3 to 1 roulette game.....

[@thecreateunknown]

Oh hi, me!

[@zsoltlengyel9085]

but what about your video on probability? or the fact that a coin flip landing head 6 times in a row is 1.5625% or 1/64

[@521Undertaker]

Best case: Linear winnings. Worst case: Exponential losses. Guess which one dominates over time...

[@uwotmate3812]

neither dominates over time, your expected outcome from this strategy is a net 0 win/loss

[@enclocreations4427]

uwotmate not with the house edge

[@MrSuperKarate]

@@uwotmate3812 if there is no margin. If there is any margin you always lose.

[@jamirimaj6880]

@@uwotmate3812 mathematically you're right, but "over time" really means "infinity"... and you play in a real world scenario with betting ceilings and finite sources. In that case, the exponential behavior trumps the linear one easily.

[@michaelroditis1952]

If you can bet infinite sugar cubes and there's no ceil then you would always win.

[@ZephyrOfficial]

Some time ago I tried the martingale strategy. I went in with $500 Got to about $2000+ And then lost everything.

[@Mr_CM_]

U should try roulette U have red and black - odd and even - and big or small and the same game So when u see 3 or 4 red in a row u can make your bet When u win u probably have more 3 or 4 odd/even or big/small in a row in a row So u cut the risk by far

[@ZephyrOfficial]

carlos mendes that’s what I did.

[@sowjuice]

Zephyr ouch

[@alltheaudios3162]

Zephyr it's illegal to bet over £2000 in a bet

[@ZephyrOfficial]

@@alltheaudios3162 tables have their maximums and minimum bets.

[@jeremiahsouthworth5112]

It's like the old saying goes, "Do you know what casino workers say to someone with a can't lose system? Welcome."

[@SilentHotdog28]

I haven't heard that saying before, I like it.

[@Zhab80]

Unless it really is. Then you shall be Photo banned in all casinos.

[@izilinks]

card counters

[@seanbrower4701]

Unless you're a card counter which only gives you a chance at a microscopic advantage. Than you're banned for all eternity 😂

[@sorak185]

The law of large numbers very much applies here, too. I used to play "dice games" with cryptocurrencies, and I understood every concept in play... I set myself up with an initial bet that, given what I had available, required a 27 loss streak of a 49.5% chance of winning dice roll in order to bankrupt me. Yup, still happened. *Never* underestimate the law of large numbers.

[@stervenmealey1097]

this so called law states there must be a time I win a million bucks, I just need to play enough

[@Alv2931]

for real?

[@crimpers5543]

crypto dice game casino? you got scammed my friend. I doubt the site was using truly random

[@jakubpiekarski5591]

About 1 in 130000000.

[@alistair158]

Wait you had a 27 losing streak? WTF

[@ricardoadasz6881]

Hi, does someone knows how can i find this deck of cards? So beautiful...

[@geminibynature8486]

@Kobus Hoekstra In the current situation in my place, nothing is available in Amazon for now.

[@allanfiesta]

Kobus Hoekstra thank you

[@ComicSans2172]

@Kobus Hoekstra Thank You. You're a good man/woman

[@purplesingercats8937]

Max 231 /person

[@madkirk7431]

Hi, this isn't the national helpline.

[@AstaticMusic.]

For anyone wondering vector costs around $250

[@GucciSlidersOnPC]

$328

[@carsthatdrive1891]

£250, not $250

[@syrialak101]

Eythrope The website says it's $250, my dude.

[@syrialak101]

CarsThatDrive I went to the website and it says "$249.99" for me.

[@thetman0068]

Haha. British folk are getting ripped off!

[@BlackGryph0n]

Vector is PAINFULLY cute!!

[@DankMatter]

This robot really likes winning

[@Satan-lb8pu]

Who doesn't?

[@Mlgtrek334]

Do you know me

[@godspeed2145]

It's programmed to win, so you can say it's born winning

[@SKsuprakirby]

Robot is haxxor.

[@runningwithSaul]

"We will be winning so much that you'll be tired of winning", Robot: "Never!".

[@Sunny_Haven]

Vector makes me say both, "Aww, that's so cute!" and, "Wow, are we already at the point where robots like this exist?"

[@kyarumomochi5146]

There are robots that can make a flip on air and do surgery are you impressed by a robotic vocie and interactive screen on a car toy?

[@Sunny_Haven]

@@kyarumomochi5146 I didn't know about those robots at the time.

[@sanamite]

@@kyarumomochi5146 Nice

[@Spacebugg]

@@kyarumomochi5146 dont say that he got programmed feelings you know

[@bahmot9501]

He really is adorable though.

[@DaveGamesVT]

So... just don't gamble.

[@chillren654]

just dont fall for the gamblers fallacy is a better statement

[@ponq2579]

I lost $100 on csgo gamble when I was 18, so I’m done with gamble for my entire life.

[@S.and.I.Productions]

The house always wins

[@willeh6523]

THANK YOU

[@adailtonneto1767]

4Head

[@psychobartus]

Just did the coin toss thing (because im sad) Got 98 heads to 102 Tails with multiple runs of 6 two runs of 7 and one run of 9 heads in a row.

[@Deltidsninja]

I just did it in Excel to try it out :D

[@nex]

If you learn a bit of simple computer programming, you can replace minutes of boring coin tossing with hours of frustration and headaches! It's worth it in the long run, though. OK, for this particular problem, spreadsheet skills would pay off more quickly. But spreadsheets aren't a viable way of teaching your robot to fist-bump.

[@psychobartus]

@@nex lol I did it in a few minutes typing T or H into notepad and counting the results.

[@nex]

That can totally be a smart way of going about it. E.g. keep hammering T and H simultaneously to achieve decent randomisation, then use the text editor to do the counting in a few keypresses (character count function and find&replace). It's going to be quicker than writing the program, unless you're into competitive programming. (Which is an interesting hobby, but surprisingly irrelevant to both amateur and professional software development.) But what I'm getting at is that once you've written a program that counts runs of heads, changing it to do millions instead of hundreds of tosses in a row, and to give you the average over many experiments instead of just the one, is super painless. Still not as effective as just doing the math, but more fun IMHO. I guess it depends on whether you need enough precision to make it worth the confusion and headaches :)

[@Julio974]

Or you could just use Random.org

[@AJ-lw9kp]

Vector is a cheater.

[@Kaiji700M]

6:08 this explains my losing streaks playing League of legends

[@coling.4476]

Nah that's just u mate.

[@ellegt1392]

kaiji700m Good one

[@dennisprune10]

gid gud

[@BothHands1]

lol, my life xD

[@jamespolland958]

Ah. You're that Yas, aren't you?

[@karljay7473]

Some say this is exactly why casinos have table limits, however, some tables have no limit. I never knew this as the "Martingale" problem, but I was well aware of it. What I didn't know was the odds of those streaks. That's mind blowing and I'll have to write a program to see just how "random" Apple's random numbers are. This Vsauce guy is so damn interesting, I could watch these all day.

[@Hanlb]

If you lost 2 games in a row. Stop playing and take a break, because the game will put you in a losing streak. Teach the game you'll only play if you win.

[@shruggzdastr8-facedclown]

...but the brain secretly likes losing 'cuz it believes that it can win; so, it keeps playing -- once it wins, it validates all the wasted effort it put in to all those games lost 'til it won.

[@idontcarewhy]

Shruggz Da Str8-Faced Clown Be strong. Brain must resist!

[@someweeb3650]

That isn't changing anything though

[@dry5778]

Shruggz Da Str8-Faced Clown exactly that’s why that “I won’t stop playing until I get a win” is so popular in games. Even though it’s not beneficial at all. Take chess for example. Even if you have a high elo gain for a win and a low elo loss for a loss every game, just a few losses would make you have a loss overall if you stop on the first win

[@fireballme1153]

...The game is completely random. Vector is not AI; It can't learn either.

[@NochSoEinKaddiFan]

I am a huge fan of how you are equally amazed and weirded out by the world surrounding you, I feel that :)

[@JustAnotherMe]

I read the comment and wondered if you were talking to vector.

[@NochSoEinKaddiFan]

@@JustAnotherMe xD I guess Vector is too much of a sunshine to let the world weird him out ^^

[@ozapy]

Are you the AlphaVsause now? Your the only one who’ve been posting constantly for the past year.

[@david2618]

Indeed

[@leguan278]

Henry Ambrose but consistenly was never used

[@kevboard]

you're* the only one who has* been posting

[@UnfairEnforcer]

Ozapy to be fair, all the videos now center on math games/tricks on the same set. Kind of takes some of the Vsauce magic away

[@OvPdTurtle]

@@h4724-q6j He was working on the video for a long time. Its a high quality video. He never quit.

[@acetate909]

Another probabilistic and game theory video. Kevin, are you training to take a casino? Is the V Sauce crew gonna do an Oceans 3 type heist? "Hey card dealer, it's Micheal here. Give me all your money." Also, statistics was always my favorite math field. It always seemed to have the most real world applications and the revelations we discovered in class were always the most interesting to me.

[@me3333]

I read somewhere that 97.3% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot.

[@Ben-dz9uu]

😎

[@acetate909]

@@me3333 70% of the time that's true 50% of the time.

[@me3333]

I also heard 9 out of 10 people polled said that out of 10 people 1 will always disagree

[@AA-100]

Summary of the 2 reasons why the Martingale Betting System won't work in a casino. 1 - There is a bet limit 2 - Your odds of winning are below 50%

[@bramtencate2170]

The odds of winning doesn't matter with this tactic (except the chances on a losing streak are higher). To prove my point, try it with one dice, and count every time you roll 5 or 6 as a win. As long as you keep te stakes on your sugar cubes in the following pattern 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-etc. (or a multiplication of that pattern, and repeat after every win) your winnings will be your first stake times the time you have won.

[@fos1451]

How can your odds of winning below %50? If you play a fair game 1vs1 and both have the same skill, same deck, etc then you have %50 chance to win, because you olay again and again then your chance of winning increase. Please if you can explain it to me, i would love to

[@fos1451]

@darthvader_alex you don't bet once you bet every time you lose so think the chance you win is 47%, you lose once, you bet again with this system if you lose you bet again. You get my point??? You Don't only bet one time but you bet after you win. Imagine it's a coin flip and you bet it's tail, the chance is 50% if you lose you bet again with this system the chance you win after the second bet is %75. You understand???

[@fos1451]

@slam zamillion I don't know where do you play blackjack but that's not how i play blackjack in casino, when i play blackjack with the dealer, even if i get bust, the dealer still need to playing (the dealer don't see my card and need to get minimum 17/18) and if the dealer get for example 24 and i get 22 then i still win

[@fos1451]

@slam zamillion mostly in a gameplay like you say it would be 3:2 if you win, but even if the dealer have 30% chance of losing, with this betting system you will still have more then 50% chance to win

[@kendarr]

When I was studying card counting it becomes kinda common sense that this technique should be avoided at all costs for the exact reason that if fails you're screwed

[@alicethetransdalek7333]

did you just steal that robot's sugar cube?

[@rageturnedinwords3154]

xD

[@me3333]

Right cause he sure didn't win it back

[@emmanuelcamilorojasrodrigu3405]

While he was taking a nap!! D:

[@dudder2008]

@@emmanuelcamilorojasrodrigu3405 well you snooze you loose xD

[@emmanuelcamilorojasrodrigu3405]

@@dudder2008 Never better said 😂😂

[@PatTheNESpunk]

I tried this playing Shaq Blackjack. It didn't end well for me.

[@zakmsz]

What is Shaq blackjack

[@StudioUAC]

What you doin

[@RobertBelko]

the blackjack go skraa papakaka

[@WeArePharmers]

MyVegas mobile app game

[@monotoneyay9108]

Blackshaq

[@Simon-sr3cn]

So you're saying I can win 9 times in a row

[@TheSwiftFalcon]

Yes, for a grand total profit of $225. The problem is that the equally likely loosing streak would cost you $25 575...

[@notquiteordinary]

@@TheSwiftFalcon if you doubled your bet every time you won and had a winning streak then you could make out like a bandit

[@micheldaoud]

@@notquiteordinary almost same thing happened to me. i won 14 coinflips in a row winning 4k$ from 0.5$. that was a crazy day

[@TheSwiftFalcon]

@@notquiteordinary Yeah, but that requires either precognition or incredible luck to pull off. The point of the Martingale system is to guarantee profit without those things.

[@notquiteordinary]

@@TheSwiftFalcon I understand what you're saying but what it seems like you don't understand is the way that black jack pays out, you always at least win your bet back plus winnings equal to your bet. Profits would probably be higher than 225. But idk let's see, 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280. Yeah it would be much higher than 225. It would be all these numbers added together. Plus you would have started with an amount equal to these added together, leaving with the total of these amounts x2

[@faysus]

Vector: Dealer won! Kevin: *OK LISTEN HERE YOU TINY BLACK ROBOT*

[@michaelbuckers]

WHAT, IS THIS BECAUSE I'M BLACK?!

[@skylarnoel487]

I'm black and I don't think it's racist at all... its literally a small black robot. Black is also a color not just a race.

[@thsbh2]

@Aiden Hafer I know right people can be so ignorant some times.

[@TrulyGodsGoofiest]

I'm actually interested in the cards, they look awesome!

[@douglasmceachen4161]

Prism playing cards by the elephant playing card company. You can buy them on Amazon for around 12 dollars right now. (that's the sale price).

[@mimszanadunstedt441]

@@douglasmceachen4161 Night or dusk?

[@TheLetterJ13]

Same

[@vanitymanatee3202]

The problem is that your luck stats are too low

[@insertstupidserialnumberhe2727]

"I ain't paying a fortune to unlock that!"

[@Johnnybegood_]

10 luck in New Vegas and you win every black jack hand until they ban you lol

[@hal20eezay]

Props for the Lego star Wars pic

[@ned4888]

Day 44 of asking Charlie to put _____ on the moist meter

[@newb.justnewb.8762]

The problem is that Vector is a god damn cheater

[@arthaiser]

that sugar cube you ate at the end was not yours anymore!!

[@blackstar2008]

arthaiser probably got food poisoning from the ink on the white board

[@z-beeblebrox]

But the look of instant regret made it worth it

[@lawrencecalablaster568]

Vsauce2 is evolving! Vsauce2 has evolved into GameSauce1!

[@pierreluc5382]

Sellingvectorsauce2

[@karkona3800]

You did forget to mention one crucial up-side to the Martingale strategy: Winning with a Blackjack after several losses in a row. Let's say you start at a $25 table and lose 5 hands. Your next wager is $800, and let's assume you get a Blackjack and the dealer does not. Your payout for that win is $1200, 3 to 2 odds (Some casinos and tables have different odds). So not only do you win your original $25 wager you started this losing streak with, but you also profit an additional $375 on top of that!

[@davidl.e5203]

yeah, you could also lose consecutively, then losing again against a dealer with blackjack.

[@Majima_Nowhere]

I came expecting to learn a bit about gambling, and left wanting to spend $300 on a cute little robot. Vector is just about the best thing I've seen in a while.

[@crimsonhalo13]

... and by the 12th losing hand, you're indebted to the local Mafia loan shark, and might lose your kneecaps along with the next bet.

[@DxBlack]

And then they bury you, still alive, in the desert with your brother on top of you.

[@Flying_Pand4]

BUT NOT IF I WIN THIS NEXT ONE

[@Baekstrom]

When I was younger I played around with computer simulations of using this system (I used the odds of hitting red/black in a roulette spin). No matter how I tweaked the parameters, the simulation would end up with an integer overflow at some point. When you play against the house there is one inescapable fact you can't overcome: In the long run the house is going to take a percentage of every dollar you wager, so if you keep playing, you are eventually going to end up with zero dollars. If you employ a strategy that involves betting billions of dollars, and you never stop playing, then you are inevitably going to lose billions of dollars. No magic math trick can get you out of that. If you like to gamble all night, the only sensible advice is to keep your bets so small that you are unlikely to go broke before sunrise. Better still: Don't play losing bets

[@dragonskunkstudio7582]

Techmoan Linus Tech Tips Now Vsauce2 All pushing Vector all in the same week. Christbuystuff is coming.

[@robertobuenafe]

standupmaths too.

[@awesomegames9216]

vector is the same as cosmo just black instead of white

[@logonontrily4161]

It pretends to have a soul somewhat compitently

[@minecraftminertime]

Betterhelp

[@markus8282]

It´s a tamagotchi

[@ryanchristian5024]

6:20 200 hands..an HOUR???? Ok So Vsauce is stating people play blackjack at... 3.3 hands per MINUTE...thats one hand ever 17 or 18 seconds.... that includes betting, talking.... handing chips...counting.... NO WAY!

[@christiano6841]

If it's a group of serious experienced players and don't take a year to make a move yes it's bit on the fast side I do agree but not inpossible

[@AVerySexuallyDeviantOrange]

That’s kinda long for a single player and single dealer.

[@Thagor95]

"Serious" players in casinos tend to play multiple hands at the same time, since each hands only have to beat the dealer to win.

[@DanielDTUBWeinberger]

i use online casino so is use of that data was very helpful for my eyes to see.

[@photonman54]

Have you ever been to a casino?

[@joenodden]

I've played too many games where I tried the martingale technique. It never ends well. I've seen losing streaks of up to 20 happen with a 50% chance of winning.

[@ryanmadigan4715]

That is a probability of 0.000000953, I doubt you have seen many of those

[@gabrielschilhan6435]

and yet sooner or later it always happens if you actually try

[@irrelevant_noob]

Ryan Madigan you don't need to see *_many_* of them... just one would be enough to clear stuff right up. ^^

[@biggawinnacrapsa3870]

I've been playing Baccarat for 45 years and never lost 14 in a row. I keep track of every hand played. If only there was a casino that would allow an original bet + 13 double-ups, I could live the easy life. P.S. Baccarat is easier to win at than Blackjack.

[@alainduncan3756]

​@@biggawinnacrapsa3870 You completely missed the point of the video. Doesn't matter how big your bank roll is or how many times you're allowed to double up. You'll eventually go bankrupt (and long before you make a significant profit).

[@khajiit92]

martingale assumes infinite money, and actually for a finite budget it has a negative (or at best zero) expected value! In the long term the chance of bankrupting yourself being such a big deal balances out the more likely situation of you winning a tiny amount so that overall it's not worth it for any finite budget (or even if your opponent has a finite budget and they'll cut you off if you win too much).

[@0011peace]

no one has an inifinite budge. The casino has a budget that makes yours look like pocket change and they make the rules.

[@Wolfiyeethegranddukecerberus17]

I bet he misses Billy now.

[@chrishansen2763]

why don’t you have a seat

[@ItsReallyColdOutside]

Who is Billy?

[@whocareslol222222]

it gets worse when you factor in the house edge. in your example you assumed 50/50 odds but no casino gives odds that good. the smallest edge the house has is in blackjack where if you play perfectly, they have about a 1% edge. you showed there's a 32% chance to lose 9 in a row after 200 coin flips, but if you only have a 49.5% chance to win a hand of blackjack, the odds of losing 9 in a row jump to almost 35%. go to the roulette wheel where the house has an even bigger edge and the odds of losing 9 in a row become 46%.

[@louiswouters71]

Yes, but it's even worse. Since you sometimes have to double your bet to get to that 1% edge so the odds of winning a single hand are lower than 49.5%. This math only works for roulette. What if you bet 64 cubes and you double your bet since you have 11 and the bank has a 6. If you win, you have 65 cubes profit.

[@cloudcover540]

Yea, when I've used the Martingale before I made sure the largest losing streak would have less than .01% chance of occurring. This usually means that the initial bet is very very small, so you can account for something like a 15 loss streak.

[@alekswatson]

But his argument is 30 percent in 200, not a smaller sample size. That 9 consecutive in a row in a smaller sample around the size of 9, is much less than 30 percent. His argument is kinda collapsed here.

[@rosen380]

@@cloudcover540 An initial $1 bet will call for a $33k bet after a streak of 15 losses. Starting at a penny and we're still talking $328 for that 16th bet. How many places are going to have a 1 cent minimum with a maximum >$300?

[@cloudcover540]

@@rosen380 Pretty much all bitcoin gambling sites have a minimum bet of 1 satoshi, which is currently about $.0043. Max bets vary, usually around 5 btc so right now $18k. You can also play around with odds of winning, so each consecutive bet doesn't have to be doubled.

[@mikeyoung9810]

I used to play a coin flipping game while in a live stream chat and at times, I swear, there was this evil presence controlling the flips. You see things like: an hours play and your longest losing streak is 9 so you hit another at 9 and bet is all figuring there is no way it could happen again and of course , it did. It always seemed that the more I tried to guess the streak it would up the record to catch me up. My eventual record of losses in a row got very high.

[@0011peace]

And Kevin said there is 1/3 chance a 9 streak will occur

[@RationallySkeptical]

In case anyone is wondering, that's the Prism Night deck of playing cards - the nicest of the Prism series. This deck looks fantastic - if you never use it. The deck isn't well made to begin with. It's printed in China, not Taiwan, so the paper stock quality is inferior. To compensate for this as well as make the cards tolerate humidity better, they are extra thick - some of the thickest cards made, actually. 10 of them measure over 3.13mm. This makes them unpleasant to handle compared to Cartamundi or Taiwan printed Legends or Expert playing cards. As with almost all black decks, when the sides get worn they lose the black color and once the edges start showing white the deck starts to look bad.

[@elogan5817]

thank you, stranger from 3 years ago, from me making an impulse purchase I'd have regretted!

[@Taikamuna]

I just saw a video about this robot on linus tech tips 🤔

[@shawniscoolerthanyou]

That's how advertising works: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect

[@impartialalpha924]

Hey my name is Linus!

[@agushernandez6083]

Thanks for the info, domino person.

[@linus6718]

@@impartialalpha924 Me too!

[@NekoMouser]

How much do the cool cards cost, though?

[@Tomzo711]

House always wins.....

[@GaryLuKOTH]

charon7111 Not if you count cards.

[@thiagof9481]

...on average. They don't always win against everyone.

[@Tomzo711]

Was meant to be a New Vegas reference.

[@Gullpojken]

House always wins if you stay to loong

[@joenodden]

The strategy works better with a 1/3 chance of winning, with a reward of 3 times what you bet though, as each time you lose, the profit increases. (If you're still doubling your bets) You have to bet as minimal as possible though, as you have to account for the losing streak.

[@cringeyusername7459]

That's a terrible strategy. You're increasing your chances of losing by an additional 17%, which means longer losing streaks, causing your betting to snowball faster, meaing you approach the upper ceiling of your funds and betting limits faster.

[@DavidKennedy]

Nicely explained! I wrote a VB Script back in 2001 to calculate the potential of betting systems against both Black Jack and Roulette, and was frustrated that the variables required to virtually guarantee success would mean sitting at casino tables for hours each day with very meagre return. That's why I'm not a betting man; all the games are rigged in favor of the house.

[@SgtSupaman]

Another great example of how mathematics don't always work out in the real world, but, also, you were getting hustled by that robot. You just need to get an unbiased third party to control the deck, because, clearly, that little guy will do anything to win.

[@flavuoVEVO]

Vector is just amazing.

[@aspitefulrose7001]

"I'm gonna lose everything!!!!" "That's why it's called gambling." -A Knight's Tale

[@michaellowe7622]

When I was younger I would go out and work as a toy tester for different companies and that robot was one of the first I did and I got to play with it a year before it came out and it was so much fun

[@RE-ty9lb]

After watching you go head to head with your little robot buddy, I’d be really interested in seeing a video comparing the odds between various HRNG processes and PRNG algorithms for things like gambling.

[@merrikceadall4620]

And nice to see attention being brought to this betting system that I think is responsible for ruining lives, I work in the casino industry and have seen people bet this way time and time again, and seeing the utter despair on their faces when this system fails them truly saddens me

[@jaiv]

I want to eat a sugar cube.

[@Dinoboy676]

same

[@omegalord]

The robot was clearly cheating. Drown it in a bucket of water.

[@U014B]

Right! If it floats, it's a witch; if it sinks, it's a... human? Hold on...

[@electra_]

Then you see if it weighs the same as a duck

[@MurriciTerceiro]

but doesn't matter how much time it get under water, it will be just a scratch!

[@ee5142]

you are a monster Donn Aldak

[@sapphirestarblazer6805]

But dbh

[@xKomer]

Imagine Bill Gates is playing this **200 Loosing streak**

[@gilian2587]

Betting limits defeat Bill Gates.

[@lotok5703]

Kinda late but a 200 losing streak ould be about 1e60 dollars if your bet in the beggining was 1 lol

[@skkadoot9533]

@@gilian2587 then he buys the cassino

[@AerB111]

When I first started following the three Vsauce channels a few years ago, Vsauce2 was my least favorite one. It had a few interesting topics, but most of the videos just weren't my thing. But I have to say that for at least the past year, I got to like your channel the most, partly because you're the only one who still uploads with a reasonable frequency, but now I also really like the content you make a lot more. Thanks for these videos and keep up the good work!

[@ninasepulveda5667]

Had I watched you way before and I would've had way more interest and a higher grade in probability and statistics, love your videos so much!

[@TheBlackRoseCosplay]

"how nerdy are you?" "I fist bump robots!!"

[@Sanguinaryyy]

You’re petting a robot, Kevin. Come back to earth before your mind is lost to the robots!

[@AiluridaeAureus]

I for one, welcome our adorable robot overlords.

[@itsabelle_arts]

You are the only thing keeping VSauce alive 😂

[@sorbet7085]

The martingale effect really works. I played with a robot and double my bet every time i lost. I won 1,000 currency.

[@greyedgerton2890]

I'm reminded of game theory. Tossing a coin is a good example. Say the coin shows heads six times in a row, your encouraged to think that 'chances' are the following toss is greater than 50/50 coming up tails. But this in fact is untrue. No matter how many consecutive heads show, the following toss will always still be 50/50. Same dilemma.

[@alexmusicweeks]

Nobody can replace Cozmo. Edit: Vectors still cool tho

[@cookiemazino3731]

*Was never so early on a vsauce video.Nice* *Edit:That robot is so cute.*

[@steliostoulis1875]

Anki is sponsoring all my favorite youtubers. #ParkerSquare

[@colorado841]

There are online sites that will simulate the martingale system. The results varied wildly and were a lot different from what I expected.

[@pjwo383]

Also, you're not tossing a coin, you're playing blackjack. This game has a 1.9% house advantage (depending on number of decks, basic strategy, ability to count cards) and most casinos table limits only allow you to double your original bet from minimum, 5 times. For e.g., minimum $25, maximum $1000 ($50-$100-$200-$400-$800)

[@khaledismail8713]

can i get those cards anywhere?

[@TheKidPyro]

www.amazon.com/Elephant-Playing-Cards-Prism-Incredible/dp/B07CQJTLQ5

[@untitledphysicist3205]

Does anyone know where I could get the cards he used in the video?

[@aquarium778]

prism night playing cards

[@RedOneM]

@@aquarium778, Thank you, i've been searching them for a while now

[@8bithardstop682]

5:50 dare devil’s intro

[@carealoo744]

I remember when I first watched this video and I had no idea what the rule were. Now that I've actually studied a bit of game theory, I actually get it:)

[@tagenksu]

The other day I went to the casino with $300 put $200 down on a $10 minimum table and played an entire shoe with 2 other people sitting at the table. My sole win was a blackjack, I never increased my bet until the last hand where I bet my last $15 and lost. Only thing that kept me disciplined enough to not increase my bet ever was that I only had $100 left in my pocket and planned on having a longer than 30 minute trip.

[@teom.m.8352]

Uau, eu já havia pensado antes em ir duplicando a aposta até ganhar, mas não esperava um vídeo exatamente sobre isso

[@eurovisioncyan9550]

When will Vsauce1 finally make free videos?

[@luizmila]

Idk man

[@shawniscoolerthanyou]

There's already a ton.

[@naffal1538]

What is this question

[@goodlookingcorpse]

Although I think your conclusion is correct, one small thing: in Blackjack, unlike tossing a coin, wouldn't the results of hands be slightly connected (as long as the deck wasn't reshuffled in between)?

[@joebobilly]

Yes, but that’s really just card counting, and if you know how to do that effectively then there’s no reason to martingale bet. If you don’t know how to count cards then it has no effect; it’s still the same odds in the end

[@ShauntSerelu]

I'm actually really really good at blackjack. I know how the casinos rig the odds in their favor too. It turns out, if you shuffle the deck after each hand, it cuts the odds of a player winning a hand noticeably

[@androkguz]

That robot is awesome. Vector is cool too.

[@TheFoolishSamurai]

Moral of the Story: Luck is a f@#$ing jerk.

[@quahntasy]

This robot really likes winning For anyone wondering this robot costs around 250$

[@Burn1ngR4g3]

Woah just seen it on LTT

[@Samuel-sg2iv]

I only use this strat for gambling mini games, in video games. It only works if you have a lot of money. In one of the games i turned 40k into 150k. But i did get all the up to 200k, but i went on a losing streak and went down to 150k. And, i mean he say it in the video. Casino limit your max bet so you can't do this. Cause it is a good strategy, you just need to have a lot of money.

[@secondpsycho6577]

True story. I actually came up with this exact same method in the basement of my college library... I wanted to see if it actually worked, so I wrote a computer program to simulate it, and I ran into this problem. I like to think "Great Minds think Alike."

[@DynamicGracer]

Now try driving to vegas with your friends laughing like hyenas the whole way with 8 bets only to lose it on your first martingale

[@TheRMeerkerk]

Whenever I hear this betting strategy one of the fallacies that always gets mentioned is the fact that you only win your starting bet. This is only true for doubling. For instance: If you triple your bets instead of doubling and win at some point, then you are guaranteed to win at least half your last bet and it will be at least 1/3 times the total amount you bet. If you quadruple each time and win at some point, then you will get at least 2/3 of your last bet and it will be at least 1/2 times the total amount you bet. ... If you n-tuple each time and win at some point, then you will win at least (n - 2)/(n - 1) times your final bet and it will be at least 1 - 2/n times the total amount you bet. Still the other fallacies mentioned hold true and are even stronger for the cases I mentioned. So it's not advised to go to a casino and dodecatuple your bets in the hopes to win at some point 10/11 of your last bet and 5/6 of your total bet. You will hit the casino limit pretty fast.

[@patrickhecker853]

Tripling and quadrupling is a risky business.

[@TheRMeerkerk]

@@patrickhecker853 That's why I said: "So it's not advised to go to a casino and dodecatuple your bets"

[@rosen380]

But that will lead to hitting table maxes far more often. At a $1 table with a $100 max: double: a 7 game losing streak ruins it triple: a 5 game losing streak ruins it quadruple: 4 games quintuple: 3 games I simulated 200 hand sessions, 10000 times, assuming 50% odds (so more like a hypothetical roulette wheel with no 0 or 00 and betting on red/black/even/odd/1-18/19-36, I guess :)) On average doubling worked out to +$6 per 200; tripling -11, quadrupling -$2, quintupling +$3 and septupling -$1. Also did straight $1 bets and predictably came out at $0. There doesn't seem to be any real benefit over the long haul to using different multiples. And the differences between them on average are rounding error relative to the total mounts you are betting. FWIW, here are the best and worst end-of-200-hands for each: 1x -53 to +$51 2x -$1290 to +$126 3x -$2122 to +$625 4x -$2688 to +$929 5x -$2597 to +$1328 6x -$2450 to +$1445 These are just ending points- almost certainly there were times within 200 hand runs where you were outside of these ranges.

[@rhueoflandorin]

no casino is going to permit a bet spread that makes martingale betting viable, even *if* our imaginary bettor has a theoretical bankroll equal to infinity.

[@spimatti]

The duel arena has taken all my sugar cubes

[@meILM]

For anyone wondering, Anki Ran out of business the middle of 2019, they are now owned by Digital Dream Labs, although they work on Software for Vector and cozmo, and don't produce the robots anymore.

[@trolmaso]

I have one!

[@grainfrizz]

The only remaining Vsauce. Keep it up, man.

[@FrigidOven]

Underrated channel.

[@JeremyArnone]

3.9 million subscribers agree

[@wizz7622]

still worst vsauce

[@Panj0]

how can you possibly say that?

[@-Sp1n]

WoW i want that! **costs $250** Nevermind

[@carealoo744]

Psst! It's on sale on Amazon, for just $150+ Lol ;)

[@jeexxy1296]

I want those playing cards

[@95mustafa]

If you're ever foolish enough to use this strategy in real life, be wise enough to walk away from the casino if you ever find yourself up significantly

[@freddyt55555]

I use this system occasionally for short sessions at the table. However, I never just double the previous bet. I keep track of my cumulative consecutive losses and double that amount so that if I win I go from being down $X to being up $X. Immediately after a win, I go right back to the minimum bet and start over. You win the most when the table is sort of cold but not completely cold, and win very little when the table is hot. However, when the table is really cold, you can lose a lot. That's when it's time to leave and go to another table. You can never think the losing streak is going to eventually end. I've seen the dealer play 20 consecutive hands without busting.

[@greenflagracing7067]

casinos love systems

[@dimamaksimov869]

2:55 even I couldn’t help laughing this time

[@realMarleyMarrow]

hi kevin, hi kevin! i'm your biggest fan!

[@CherrygroveCity]

I need some brain smartness juice for this one.

[@Mlgtrek334]

Do you know me

[@G33KST4R]

I gave up when he introduced Nim, but I still watch because it's interesting.

[@themoribundapathetic4530]

@Verum the best genius sauce. Eat it with your fakeburger.

[@porkeyminch8044]

Sounds like you could use some BrainFluud™. I would recommend trying their "Grape Intensity" flavour.

[@DynestiGTI]

Anyone remember *RIG-JUICE*

[@Dragonite43]

On a side note, I remember watching a video series ON Demand about Blackjack. Pretty much, bet the lowest amount possible at the start. If you win, bet one more chip. If you lose, start back at one. By playing Conservatively, you may limit your gains, but you limit your loss.

[@pengchengwu447]

You really put theory in practical terms.

[@sweetskys243]

That robot is too cute!

[@justinmplayz8809]

Did you just STEAL ONE OF A ROBOTS CUBE? (at the end of the video)

[@Force05289]

Fourth also hi Kevin. Also cool robot colab thing. Also this is really cool I think this robot is cool. I mean your playing blackjack so cool.

[@PatrickM-nw3ss]

Lol ok

[@keenan1972]

that was amazing ! I discovered the gambling system in my own mind about 20 years ago. But in the uk we have very low table limits so the system did not work like i had planned. But your explination of unit cost and returns just makes me glad i never followed it though as i had planned Great work !

[@cesarbravo822]

Same thing happened to me. I came up with this "strategy" on the spot, and lost everything after a bad streak.