The Martingale Betting Problem

The Martingale Betting system claims that by doubling your wager after each loss, no matter how many times they lose in a row, a gambler is guaranteed to eventually win big. It’s considered foolproof, and mathematically it is… until it isn’t.
With the aid of a faithful blackjack-dealing robot friend, Kevin puts this 18th-century France gambling strategy to the test. How does expected value play a role? What about exponential growth? Here’s the real question: Does it actually work!?
** LINKS **
The Difficulty Of Faking Data by Theodore P. Hill
www.kkuniyuk.com/Math119Faking...
Wizard Of Odds Streaks
wizardofodds.com/image/ask-th...
***********************************
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Twitter: / vsaucetwo
Facebook: / vsaucetwo
Hosted, Produced, And Edited by Kevin Lieber
Instagram: / kevlieber
Twitter: / kevinlieber
Website: kevinlieber.com
Research And Writing by Matthew Tabor
/ matthewktabor
VFX By Eric Langlay
/ ericlanglay
Huge Thanks Paula Lieber
www.etsy.com/shop/Craftality
Select Music By Jake Chudnow: / jakechudnow
MY PODCAST -- THE CREATE UNKNOWN
/ thecreateunknown

[@Vsauce2]

My new podcast is about to launch! Subscribe right now to The Create Unknown channel so you know as soon as the first episode is uploaded. Thanks! kzbin.info

[@schregen]

Hi Vsauce! I am Vsauce! 🔥

[@saunamorrison7092]

I love everything vsauce

[@eggsack]

You do this with bitcoin bits on a 3 to 1 roulette game.....

[@thecreateunknown]

Oh hi, me!

[@zsoltlengyel9085]

but what about your video on probability? or the fact that a coin flip landing head 6 times in a row is 1.5625% or 1/64

[@DankMatter]

This robot really likes winning

[@Satan-lb8pu]

Who doesn't?

[@Mlgtrek334]

Do you know me

[@godspeed2145]

It's programmed to win, so you can say it's born winning

[@SKsuprakirby]

Robot is haxxor.

[@runningwithSaul]

"We will be winning so much that you'll be tired of winning", Robot: "Never!".

[@521Undertaker]

Best case: Linear winnings. Worst case: Exponential losses. Guess which one dominates over time...

[@uwotmate3812]

neither dominates over time, your expected outcome from this strategy is a net 0 win/loss

[@enclocreations4427]

uwotmate not with the house edge

[@MrSuperKarate]

@@uwotmate3812 if there is no margin. If there is any margin you always lose.

[@jamirimaj6880]

@@uwotmate3812 mathematically you're right, but "over time" really means "infinity"... and you play in a real world scenario with betting ceilings and finite sources. In that case, the exponential behavior trumps the linear one easily.

[@michaelroditis1952]

If you can bet infinite sugar cubes and there's no ceil then you would always win.

[@jeremiahsouthworth5112]

It's like the old saying goes, "Do you know what casino workers say to someone with a can't lose system? Welcome."

[@SilentHotdog28]

I haven't heard that saying before, I like it.

[@Zhab80]

Unless it really is. Then you shall be Photo banned in all casinos.

[@izilinks]

card counters

[@ZephyrOfficial]

Some time ago I tried the martingale strategy. I went in with $500 Got to about $2000+ And then lost everything.

[@Mr_CM_]

U should try roulette U have red and black - odd and even - and big or small and the same game So when u see 3 or 4 red in a row u can make your bet When u win u probably have more 3 or 4 odd/even or big/small in a row in a row So u cut the risk by far

[@ZephyrOfficial]

carlos mendes that’s what I did.

[@sowjuice]

Zephyr ouch

[@alltheaudios3162]

Zephyr it's illegal to bet over £2000 in a bet

[@ZephyrOfficial]

@@alltheaudios3162 tables have their maximums and minimum bets.

[@alicethetransdalek7333]

did you just steal that robot's sugar cube?

[@rageturnedinwords3154]

xD

[@me3333]

Right cause he sure didn't win it back

[@emmanuelcamilorojasrodrigu3405]

While he was taking a nap!! D:

[@dudder2008]

@@emmanuelcamilorojasrodrigu3405 well you snooze you loose xD

[@emmanuelcamilorojasrodrigu3405]

@@dudder2008 Never better said 😂😂

[@AstaticMusic.]

For anyone wondering vector costs around $250

[@GucciSlidersOnPC]

$328

[@carsthatdrive1891]

£250, not $250

[@syrialak101]

Eythrope The website says it's $250, my dude.

[@syrialak101]

CarsThatDrive I went to the website and it says "$249.99" for me.

[@thetman0068]

Haha. British folk are getting ripped off!

[@sorak185]

The law of large numbers very much applies here, too. I used to play "dice games" with cryptocurrencies, and I understood every concept in play... I set myself up with an initial bet that, given what I had available, required a 27 loss streak of a 49.5% chance of winning dice roll in order to bankrupt me. Yup, still happened. *Never* underestimate the law of large numbers.

[@stervenmealey1097]

this so called law states there must be a time I win a million bucks, I just need to play enough

[@estevaoalvarenga2931]

for real?

[@crimpers5543]

crypto dice game casino? you got scammed my friend. I doubt the site was using truly random

[@jakubpiekarski5591]

About 1 in 130000000.

[@alistair158]

Wait you had a 27 losing streak? WTF

[@Sunny_Haven]

Vector makes me say both, "Aww, that's so cute!" and, "Wow, are we already at the point where robots like this exist?"

[@kyarumomochi5146]

There are robots that can make a flip on air and do surgery are you impressed by a robotic vocie and interactive screen on a car toy?

[@Sunny_Haven]

@@kyarumomochi5146 I didn't know about those robots at the time.

[@sanamite]

@@kyarumomochi5146 Nice

[@Spacebugg]

@@kyarumomochi5146 dont say that he got programmed feelings you know

[@bahmot9501]

He really is adorable though.

[@Kaiji700M]

6:08 this explains my losing streaks playing League of legends

[@coling.4476]

Nah that's just u mate.

[@ellegt1392]

kaiji700m Good one

[@dennisprune10]

gid gud

[@BothHands1]

lol, my life xD

[@jamespolland958]

Ah. You're that Yas, aren't you?

[@BlackGryph0n]

Vector is PAINFULLY cute!!

[@ricardoadasz6881]

Hi, does someone knows how can i find this deck of cards? So beautiful...

[@geminibynature8486]

@Kobus Hoekstra In the current situation in my place, nothing is available in Amazon for now.

[@allanfiesta]

Kobus Hoekstra thank you

[@ComicSans2172]

@Kobus Hoekstra Thank You. You're a good man/woman

[@purplesingercats8937]

Max 231 /person

[@madkirk7431]

Hi, this isn't the national helpline.

[@DaveGamesVT]

So... just don't gamble.

[@chillren654]

just dont fall for the gamblers fallacy is a better statement

[@ponq2579]

I lost $100 on csgo gamble when I was 18, so I’m done with gamble for my entire life.

[@S.and.I.Productions]

The house always wins

[@willeh6523]

THANK YOU

[@adailtonneto1767]

4Head

[@psychobartus]

Just did the coin toss thing (because im sad) Got 98 heads to 102 Tails with multiple runs of 6 two runs of 7 and one run of 9 heads in a row.

[@Deltidsninja]

I just did it in Excel to try it out :D

[@nex]

If you learn a bit of simple computer programming, you can replace minutes of boring coin tossing with hours of frustration and headaches! It's worth it in the long run, though. OK, for this particular problem, spreadsheet skills would pay off more quickly. But spreadsheets aren't a viable way of teaching your robot to fist-bump.

[@psychobartus]

@@nex lol I did it in a few minutes typing T or H into notepad and counting the results.

[@nex]

That can totally be a smart way of going about it. E.g. keep hammering T and H simultaneously to achieve decent randomisation, then use the text editor to do the counting in a few keypresses (character count function and find&replace). It's going to be quicker than writing the program, unless you're into competitive programming. (Which is an interesting hobby, but surprisingly irrelevant to both amateur and professional software development.) But what I'm getting at is that once you've written a program that counts runs of heads, changing it to do millions instead of hundreds of tosses in a row, and to give you the average over many experiments instead of just the one, is super painless. Still not as effective as just doing the math, but more fun IMHO. I guess it depends on whether you need enough precision to make it worth the confusion and headaches :)

[@Julio974]

Or you could just use Random.org

[@AJ-lw9kp]

Vector is a cheater.

[@Faysus]

Vector: Dealer won! Kevin: *OK LISTEN HERE YOU TINY BLACK ROBOT*

[@michaelbuckers]

WHAT, IS THIS BECAUSE I'M BLACK?!

[@skylarnoel487]

I'm black and I don't think it's racist at all... its literally a small black robot. Black is also a color not just a race.

[@thsbh2]

@Aiden Hafer I know right people can be so ignorant some times.

[@AA-100]

Summary of the 2 reasons why the Martingale Betting System won't work in a casino. 1 - There is a bet limit 2 - Your odds of winning are below 50%

[@bramtencate2170]

The odds of winning doesn't matter with this tactic (except the chances on a losing streak are higher). To prove my point, try it with one dice, and count every time you roll 5 or 6 as a win. As long as you keep te stakes on your sugar cubes in the following pattern 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-etc. (or a multiplication of that pattern, and repeat after every win) your winnings will be your first stake times the time you have won.

[@fos1451]

How can your odds of winning below %50? If you play a fair game 1vs1 and both have the same skill, same deck, etc then you have %50 chance to win, because you olay again and again then your chance of winning increase. Please if you can explain it to me, i would love to

[@fos1451]

@darthvader_alex you don't bet once you bet every time you lose so think the chance you win is 47%, you lose once, you bet again with this system if you lose you bet again. You get my point??? You Don't only bet one time but you bet after you win. Imagine it's a coin flip and you bet it's tail, the chance is 50% if you lose you bet again with this system the chance you win after the second bet is %75. You understand???

[@fos1451]

@slam zamillion I don't know where do you play blackjack but that's not how i play blackjack in casino, when i play blackjack with the dealer, even if i get bust, the dealer still need to playing (the dealer don't see my card and need to get minimum 17/18) and if the dealer get for example 24 and i get 22 then i still win

[@fos1451]

@slam zamillion mostly in a gameplay like you say it would be 3:2 if you win, but even if the dealer have 30% chance of losing, with this betting system you will still have more then 50% chance to win

[@ozapy]

Are you the AlphaVsause now? Your the only one who’ve been posting constantly for the past year.

[@david2618]

Indeed

[@leguan278]

Henry Ambrose but consistenly was never used

[@kevboard]

you're* the only one who has* been posting

[@UnfairEnforcer]

Ozapy to be fair, all the videos now center on math games/tricks on the same set. Kind of takes some of the Vsauce magic away

[@OvPdTurtle]

@@henryambrose8607 He was working on the video for a long time. Its a high quality video. He never quit.

[@NochSoEinKaddiFan]

I am a huge fan of how you are equally amazed and weirded out by the world surrounding you, I feel that :)

[@JustAnotherMe]

I read the comment and wondered if you were talking to vector.

[@NochSoEinKaddiFan]

@@JustAnotherMe xD I guess Vector is too much of a sunshine to let the world weird him out ^^

[@Hanlb]

If you lost 2 games in a row. Stop playing and take a break, because the game will put you in a losing streak. Teach the game you'll only play if you win.

[@shruggzdastr8-facedclown]

...but the brain secretly likes losing 'cuz it believes that it can win; so, it keeps playing -- once it wins, it validates all the wasted effort it put in to all those games lost 'til it won.

[@idontcarewhy]

Shruggz Da Str8-Faced Clown Be strong. Brain must resist!

[@someweeb3650]

That isn't changing anything though

[@dry5778]

Shruggz Da Str8-Faced Clown exactly that’s why that “I won’t stop playing until I get a win” is so popular in games. Even though it’s not beneficial at all. Take chess for example. Even if you have a high elo gain for a win and a low elo loss for a loss every game, just a few losses would make you have a loss overall if you stop on the first win

[@fireballme1153]

...The game is completely random. Vector is not AI; It can't learn either.

[@karljay7473]

Some say this is exactly why casinos have table limits, however, some tables have no limit. I never knew this as the "Martingale" problem, but I was well aware of it. What I didn't know was the odds of those streaks. That's mind blowing and I'll have to write a program to see just how "random" Apple's random numbers are. This Vsauce guy is so damn interesting, I could watch these all day.

[@Simon-sr3cn]

So you're saying I can win 9 times in a row

[@TheSwiftFalcon]

Yes, for a grand total profit of $225. The problem is that the equally likely loosing streak would cost you $25 575...

[@notquiteordinary]

@@TheSwiftFalcon if you doubled your bet every time you won and had a winning streak then you could make out like a bandit

[@micheldaoud]

@@notquiteordinary almost same thing happened to me. i won 14 coinflips in a row winning 4k$ from 0.5$. that was a crazy day

[@TheSwiftFalcon]

@@notquiteordinary Yeah, but that requires either precognition or incredible luck to pull off. The point of the Martingale system is to guarantee profit without those things.

[@notquiteordinary]

@@TheSwiftFalcon I understand what you're saying but what it seems like you don't understand is the way that black jack pays out, you always at least win your bet back plus winnings equal to your bet. Profits would probably be higher than 225. But idk let's see, 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280. Yeah it would be much higher than 225. It would be all these numbers added together. Plus you would have started with an amount equal to these added together, leaving with the total of these amounts x2

[@acetate909]

Another probabilistic and game theory video. Kevin, are you training to take a casino? Is the V Sauce crew gonna do an Oceans 3 type heist? "Hey card dealer, it's Micheal here. Give me all your money." Also, statistics was always my favorite math field. It always seemed to have the most real world applications and the revelations we discovered in class were always the most interesting to me.

[@me3333]

I read somewhere that 97.3% of all statistics are made up right there on the spot.

[@Ben-dz9uu]

😎

[@acetate909]

@@me3333 70% of the time that's true 50% of the time.

[@me3333]

I also heard 9 out of 10 people polled said that out of 10 people 1 will always disagree

[@kendarr]

When I was studying card counting it becomes kinda common sense that this technique should be avoided at all costs for the exact reason that if fails you're screwed

[@TrulyGodsGoofiest]

I'm actually interested in the cards, they look awesome!

[@douglasmceachen4161]

Prism playing cards by the elephant playing card company. You can buy them on Amazon for around 12 dollars right now. (that's the sale price).

[@mimszanadunstedt441]

@@douglasmceachen4161 Night or dusk?

[@TheLetterJ10]

Same

[@PatTheNESpunk]

I tried this playing Shaq Blackjack. It didn't end well for me.

[@zakmsz]

What is Shaq blackjack

[@StudioUAC]

What you doin

[@RobertBelko]

the blackjack go skraa papakaka

[@WeArePharmers]

MyVegas mobile app game

[@monotoneyay9108]

Blackshaq

[@vanitymanatee3202]

The problem is that your luck stats are too low

[@insertstupidserialnumberhe2727]

"I ain't paying a fortune to unlock that!"

[@Johnnybegood_]

10 luck in New Vegas and you win every black jack hand until they ban you lol

[@SlashingGamer]

Props for the Lego star Wars pic

[@ned4888]

Day 44 of asking Charlie to put _____ on the moist meter

[@newb.justnewb.8762]

The problem is that Vector is a god damn cheater

[@Majima_Nowhere]

I came expecting to learn a bit about gambling, and left wanting to spend $300 on a cute little robot. Vector is just about the best thing I've seen in a while.

[@karkona3800]

You did forget to mention one crucial up-side to the Martingale strategy: Winning with a Blackjack after several losses in a row. Let's say you start at a $25 table and lose 5 hands. Your next wager is $800, and let's assume you get a Blackjack and the dealer does not. Your payout for that win is $1200, 3 to 2 odds (Some casinos and tables have different odds). So not only do you win your original $25 wager you started this losing streak with, but you also profit an additional $375 on top of that!

[@davidl.e5203]

yeah, you could also lose consecutively, then losing again against a dealer with blackjack.

[@arthaiser]

that sugar cube you ate at the end was not yours anymore!!

[@blackstar2008]

arthaiser probably got food poisoning from the ink on the white board

[@z-beeblebrox]

But the look of instant regret made it worth it

[@crimsonhalo13]

... and by the 12th losing hand, you're indebted to the local Mafia loan shark, and might lose your kneecaps along with the next bet.

[@DxBlack]

And then they bury you, still alive, in the desert with your brother on top of you.

[@Flying_Pand4]

BUT NOT IF I WIN THIS NEXT ONE

[@Bigjurellegacy]

I worked on a casino and this happened to me: The probability of a royal flush on any given hand, assuming you get exactly five cards and don't get to exchange them, is 1 in 649,739. The probability of any given two hands in a row being a royal flush is 1 in (649,739)^2 = 422,160,768,121. That's the probability if you only play two hands and walk away and if you play many hands the probability gets better, but still: 1 in almost half a trillion is pretty unlikely. You would have to play only the order of half a trillion times before seeing this happen again. Even if you played a hand every second, you'd need hundreds of lifetimes to see this again. So yes, I was the dealer and the player made like 10k $ in about 2 minutes.

[@ryanchristian5024]

6:20 200 hands..an HOUR???? Ok So Vsauce is stating people play blackjack at... 3.3 hands per MINUTE...thats one hand ever 17 or 18 seconds.... that includes betting, talking.... handing chips...counting.... NO WAY!

[@christiano6841]

If it's a group of serious experienced players and don't take a year to make a move yes it's bit on the fast side I do agree but not inpossible

[@AVerySexuallyDeviantOrange]

That’s kinda long for a single player and single dealer.

[@Thagor95]

"Serious" players in casinos tend to play multiple hands at the same time, since each hands only have to beat the dealer to win.

[@DanielDTUBWeinberger]

i use online casino so is use of that data was very helpful for my eyes to see.

[@photonman54]

Have you ever been to a casino?

[@lawrencecalablaster568]

Vsauce2 is evolving! Vsauce2 has evolved into GameSauce1!

[@pierreluc5382]

Sellingvectorsauce2

[@ninasepulveda5667]

Had I watched you way before and I would've had way more interest and a higher grade in probability and statistics, love your videos so much!

[@keenan1972]

that was amazing ! I discovered the gambling system in my own mind about 20 years ago. But in the uk we have very low table limits so the system did not work like i had planned. But your explination of unit cost and returns just makes me glad i never followed it though as i had planned Great work !

[@cesarbravo822]

Same thing happened to me. I came up with this "strategy" on the spot, and lost everything after a bad streak.

[@dragonskunkstudio7582]

Techmoan Linus Tech Tips Now Vsauce2 All pushing Vector all in the same week. Christbuystuff is coming.

[@robertobuenafe]

standupmaths too.

[@awesomegames9216]

vector is the same as cosmo just black instead of white

[@logonontrily4161]

It pretends to have a soul somewhat compitently

[@minecraftminertime]

Betterhelp

[@markus8282]

It´s a tamagotchi

[@Wolfiyeethegranddukecerberus17]

I bet he misses Billy now.

[@chrishansen2763]

why don’t you have a seat

[@ItsReallyColdOutside]

Who is Billy?

[@joenodden]

I've played too many games where I tried the martingale technique. It never ends well. I've seen losing streaks of up to 20 happen with a 50% chance of winning.

[@ryanmadigan4715]

That is a probability of 0.000000953, I doubt you have seen many of those

[@gabrielschilhan6435]

and yet sooner or later it always happens if you actually try

[@irrelevant_noob]

Ryan Madigan you don't need to see *_many_* of them... just one would be enough to clear stuff right up. ^^

[@biggawinnacrapsa3870]

I've been playing Baccarat for 45 years and never lost 14 in a row. I keep track of every hand played. If only there was a casino that would allow an original bet + 13 double-ups, I could live the easy life. P.S. Baccarat is easier to win at than Blackjack.

[@alainduncan3756]

​@@biggawinnacrapsa3870 You completely missed the point of the video. Doesn't matter how big your bank roll is or how many times you're allowed to double up. You'll eventually go bankrupt (and long before you make a significant profit).

[@Goku17yen]

Love your new podcast man!! :D

[@Baekstrom]

When I was younger I played around with computer simulations of using this system (I used the odds of hitting red/black in a roulette spin). No matter how I tweaked the parameters, the simulation would end up with an integer overflow at some point. When you play against the house there is one inescapable fact you can't overcome: In the long run the house is going to take a percentage of every dollar you wager, so if you keep playing, you are eventually going to end up with zero dollars. If you employ a strategy that involves betting billions of dollars, and you never stop playing, then you are inevitably going to lose billions of dollars. No magic math trick can get you out of that. If you like to gamble all night, the only sensible advice is to keep your bets so small that you are unlikely to go broke before sunrise. Better still: Don't play losing bets

[@Chickitten]

These cards look so beautiful!!🃏😍

[@douglasmceachen4161]

They're Prism playing cards by the elephant playing card company. They're available on Amazon right now.

[@peteriusfisherius6292]

Comment for later use

[@niklaskraus1030]

@@douglasmceachen4161 thanks

[@circlonianmapper]

peterius fisherius same

[@DavidKennedy]

Nicely explained! I wrote a VB Script back in 2001 to calculate the potential of betting systems against both Black Jack and Roulette, and was frustrated that the variables required to virtually guarantee success would mean sitting at casino tables for hours each day with very meagre return. That's why I'm not a betting man; all the games are rigged in favor of the house.

[@mikeyoung9810]

I used to play a coin flipping game while in a live stream chat and at times, I swear, there was this evil presence controlling the flips. You see things like: an hours play and your longest losing streak is 9 so you hit another at 9 and bet is all figuring there is no way it could happen again and of course , it did. It always seemed that the more I tried to guess the streak it would up the record to catch me up. My eventual record of losses in a row got very high.

[@0011peace]

And Kevin said there is 1/3 chance a 9 streak will occur

[@khajiit92]

martingale assumes infinite money, and actually for a finite budget it has a negative (or at best zero) expected value! In the long term the chance of bankrupting yourself being such a big deal balances out the more likely situation of you winning a tiny amount so that overall it's not worth it for any finite budget (or even if your opponent has a finite budget and they'll cut you off if you win too much).

[@0011peace]

no one has an inifinite budge. The casino has a budget that makes yours look like pocket change and they make the rules.

[@MrKillzy]

G** D***** I lost it at the cuteness of Vector at the end with the fist bump!

[@demon666rage]

Great video bro. We miss you. Keep them coming brotha

[@AerB111]

When I first started following the three Vsauce channels a few years ago, Vsauce2 was my least favorite one. It had a few interesting topics, but most of the videos just weren't my thing. But I have to say that for at least the past year, I got to like your channel the most, partly because you're the only one who still uploads with a reasonable frequency, but now I also really like the content you make a lot more. Thanks for these videos and keep up the good work!

[@jaiv]

I want to eat a sugar cube.

[@dinoboy676]

same

[@reggiep75]

I played Roulette with the Martingale System (black or red, odds or even) for fun using a LIVE TABLE online and the biggest losing streak was 17 reds... Absolute killer!!

[@aspitefulrose7001]

"I'm gonna lose everything!!!!" "That's why it's called gambling." -A Knight's Tale

[@RationallySkeptical]

In case anyone is wondering, that's the Prism Night deck of playing cards - the nicest of the Prism series. This deck looks fantastic - if you never use it. The deck isn't well made to begin with. It's printed in China, not Taiwan, so the paper stock quality is inferior. To compensate for this as well as make the cards tolerate humidity better, they are extra thick - some of the thickest cards made, actually. 10 of them measure over 3.13mm. This makes them unpleasant to handle compared to Cartamundi or Taiwan printed Legends or Expert playing cards. As with almost all black decks, when the sides get worn they lose the black color and once the edges start showing white the deck starts to look bad.

[@elogan5817]

thank you, stranger from 3 years ago, from me making an impulse purchase I'd have regretted!

[@xKomer]

Imagine Bill Gates is playing this **200 Loosing streak**

[@gilian2587]

Betting limits defeat Bill Gates.

[@lotok5703]

Kinda late but a 200 losing streak ould be about 1e60 dollars if your bet in the beggining was 1 lol

[@skkadoot9533]

@@gilian2587 then he buys the cassino

[@whocareslol222222]

it gets worse when you factor in the house edge. in your example you assumed 50/50 odds but no casino gives odds that good. the smallest edge the house has is in blackjack where if you play perfectly, they have about a 1% edge. you showed there's a 32% chance to lose 9 in a row after 200 coin flips, but if you only have a 49.5% chance to win a hand of blackjack, the odds of losing 9 in a row jump to almost 35%. go to the roulette wheel where the house has an even bigger edge and the odds of losing 9 in a row become 46%.

[@louiswouters71]

Yes, but it's even worse. Since you sometimes have to double your bet to get to that 1% edge so the odds of winning a single hand are lower than 49.5%. This math only works for roulette. What if you bet 64 cubes and you double your bet since you have 11 and the bank has a 6. If you win, you have 65 cubes profit.

[@cloudcover540]

Yea, when I've used the Martingale before I made sure the largest losing streak would have less than .01% chance of occurring. This usually means that the initial bet is very very small, so you can account for something like a 15 loss streak.

[@alekswatson]

But his argument is 30 percent in 200, not a smaller sample size. That 9 consecutive in a row in a smaller sample around the size of 9, is much less than 30 percent. His argument is kinda collapsed here.

[@rosen380]

@@cloudcover540 An initial $1 bet will call for a $33k bet after a streak of 15 losses. Starting at a penny and we're still talking $328 for that 16th bet. How many places are going to have a 1 cent minimum with a maximum >$300?

[@cloudcover540]

@@rosen380 Pretty much all bitcoin gambling sites have a minimum bet of 1 satoshi, which is currently about $.0043. Max bets vary, usually around 5 btc so right now $18k. You can also play around with odds of winning, so each consecutive bet doesn't have to be doubled.

[@RE-ty9lb]

After watching you go head to head with your little robot buddy, I’d be really interested in seeing a video comparing the odds between various HRNG processes and PRNG algorithms for things like gambling.

[@gringogenious8796]

Exelent quality content Kevin, i had fun watching it. Greetings from Croatia

[@Tomzo711]

House always wins.....

[@GaryLuKOTH]

charon7111 Not if you count cards.

[@thiagof9481]

...on average. They don't always win against everyone.

[@Tomzo711]

Was meant to be a New Vegas reference.

[@Gullpojken]

House always wins if you stay to loong

[@michaellowe7622]

When I was younger I would go out and work as a toy tester for different companies and that robot was one of the first I did and I got to play with it a year before it came out and it was so much fun

[@RocknRollkat]

Excellent presentation, thank you ! Bill P.

[@colorado841]

There are online sites that will simulate the martingale system. The results varied wildly and were a lot different from what I expected.

[@omegalord]

The robot was clearly cheating. Drown it in a bucket of water.

[@U014B]

Right! If it floats, it's a witch; if it sinks, it's a... human? Hold on...

[@electra_]

Then you see if it weighs the same as a duck

[@MurriciTerceiro]

but doesn't matter how much time it get under water, it will be just a scratch!

[@ee5142]

you are a monster Donn Aldak

[@sapphirestarblazer6805]

But dbh

[@flavuoVEVO]

Vector is just amazing.

[@teom.m.8352]

Uau, eu já havia pensado antes em ir duplicando a aposta até ganhar, mas não esperava um vídeo exatamente sobre isso

[@tonyl7142]

Very good explanation. Tyvm from Brazil!!!

[@TheBlackRoseCosplay]

"how nerdy are you?" "I fist bump robots!!"

[@Taikamuna]

I just saw a video about this robot on linus tech tips 🤔

[@shawniscoolerthanyou]

That's how advertising works: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mere-exposure_effect

[@impartialalpha924]

Hey my name is Linus!

[@agushernandez6083]

Thanks for the info, domino person.

[@linus6718]

@@impartialalpha924 Me too!

[@NekoMouser]

How much do the cool cards cost, though?

[@DunkeysLongLostSon]

Yes, you ate it! I was really waiting for you to do that ahaha! Love you, dude!

[@grainfrizz]

The only remaining Vsauce. Keep it up, man.

[@Dremekeks]

8:15 - The shift from a pragmatic facial expression to an _oh god this is really way too sweet_ is just perfect. "Why did I do that." *LMAO*

[@itsabelle_arts]

You are the only thing keeping VSauce alive 😂

[@carealoo744]

I remember when I first watched this video and I had no idea what the rule were. Now that I've actually studied a bit of game theory, I actually get it:)

[@goodlookingcorpse]

Although I think your conclusion is correct, one small thing: in Blackjack, unlike tossing a coin, wouldn't the results of hands be slightly connected (as long as the deck wasn't reshuffled in between)?

[@Sanguinaryyy]

You’re petting a robot, Kevin. Come back to earth before your mind is lost to the robots!

[@AiluridaeAureus]

I for one, welcome our adorable robot overlords.

[@plebby4176]

I used to use this strategy pretty commonly on a discord server with a lotto based economy centered around coin flips. Because there were no real life implications, those of us who used the system realized a lot about it because we went ham with it. Firstly, you should note that as you say in the video, losing streaks are incredibly common. Once I lost a total of 15 flips in a row. However, the same can happen with winning. If you’re lucky, you will make a lot of money. The amount of currency we’d bet was pretty similar to what you’d expect in a real bet. I personally made it all the way into the millions multiple times and others made it into the ten millions. We always saved a thousand or so no matter what but we definitely lost all of our money a lot. So in short, it completely depends on luck, but it’s very likely that you’ll either get rich or go bankrupt. And finally, statistically, you’d always be back where you started. When you actually think about it, statistically you should always end up with a net gain of 0. While the method is supposed to work well in getting you money, the system has no effect whatsoever on whether you will come out with more or less in the long term. You always go into it with exactly the chances of profit as the game. Know your game

[@thiagof9481]

Judging by the data you provided, wouldn't winning streaks be as likely as the losing ones? Does this systems address them at all? Also is blackjack really anything like flipping a coin?

[@yamanatoo]

these videos with math and statistics are amazing

[@steliostoulis1875]

Anki is sponsoring all my favorite youtubers. #ParkerSquare

[@8bithardstop682]

5:50 dare devil’s intro

[@SgtSupaman]

Another great example of how mathematics don't always work out in the real world, but, also, you were getting hustled by that robot. You just need to get an unbiased third party to control the deck, because, clearly, that little guy will do anything to win.

[@merrikceadall4620]

And nice to see attention being brought to this betting system that I think is responsible for ruining lives, I work in the casino industry and have seen people bet this way time and time again, and seeing the utter despair on their faces when this system fails them truly saddens me

[@joenodden]

The strategy works better with a 1/3 chance of winning, with a reward of 3 times what you bet though, as each time you lose, the profit increases. (If you're still doubling your bets) You have to bet as minimal as possible though, as you have to account for the losing streak.

[@cringeyusername7459]

That's a terrible strategy. You're increasing your chances of losing by an additional 17%, which means longer losing streaks, causing your betting to snowball faster, meaing you approach the upper ceiling of your funds and betting limits faster.

[@untitledphysicist3205]

Does anyone know where I could get the cards he used in the video?

[@aquarium778]

prism night playing cards

[@RedOneM]

@@aquarium778, Thank you, i've been searching them for a while now

[@XVIIsionsProductions]

Can you do a video explaining the math behind if you double your bet every time you won and then half your bet every time you lose? What would this result over the course of 200 black jack games?

[@levischuurmans9400]

So you've figured it out too :) I had a buddy who used to be addicted, Made the same comparison but used chips XD Though my explanation lacked examples... So yours a 1000 times better. Didn't even know it was already covered by somebody else, Used logic. Have been thinking a lot about the tricks casinos use I make gambling interesting yet a dangerous game...

[@alexmusicweeks]

Nobody can replace Cozmo. Edit: Vectors still cool tho

[@reedsmith8975]

While I agree with you in the basic problem of Martingale, this video contains several rudimentary errors that exaggerate the problem. 1) You examine only the possibility of a streak, but don’t take into account that a winning streak is fine. Not all streaks are equal in other words, but this video treats all streaks the same. 2) Starting with $25 is silly. Nobody playing Martingale is going to start with a $25 bet because of the exponential growth shown. 3) Part of the strategy of Martingale is that player blackjack pays back at better than 1:1, often 3:2. So if you get blackjack after a 6 game losing streak, in your $25 scenario, you make $425, not just $25. In casino terms, you “stacked the deck” for your video.

[@sfdv1147]

Reed Smith if you were on a winning streak, you wouldnt use this bettinn system in the first place

[@kyleweir689]

I'm also wondering if he used "basic strategy" also... perhaps the methodology got a little screwed up, as the strategy could also impact your chances of winning and losing.

[@sfdv1147]

im a little bit curious. How can a betting system impact your chances of winning or losing?

[@rosen380]

Even starting at $1 (are there even $1 tables anymore?), a 5 game losing streak puts you at -$31. Follow that up with a five game winning streak and that puts you at +$5. There is a lot more downside than upside. If there was a $100 maximum, a losing streak of seven games would require a $100 win followed by 27 wins (without hitting the max bet again) just to get back to break even. An eight game losing streak, now you need 127 wins to get back to even (again without hitting the max bet again) -- 3:2 wins would help, but "often"?? I get the odds of being dealt a blackjack at 4.8%. Of course, when you get a blackjack, the dealer also has a 4.8% chance of getting one themselves, so your odds of actually collecting that 3:2 drops a bit to about 4.6% of all hands. I'm not sure that puts much of a dent in the downside of the martingale betting scheme.

[@maxithewoowoo]

@@rosen380 many tables at vegas have a $10000 bet maximum. So if you start at $1, you would need a losing streak of 13 in order to reach the maximum. I used an online "streak calculator" to calculate that, with 3:2 odds of winning, if you play 1000 games, there is only a 0.4% chance of getting a 13-game lose streak

[@Lazarosaliths]

Eye opening video this time. Thank you kevin!

[@simon7109100]

I've played online roulette with this technique and never lost my initial budget. It's much easier to use this in roulette because there you can switch up the colors or just go with it, but I haven't seen more than 6 red or black streak and that is rare as hell too.

[@MrSwirlgaming]

Cool looking deck

[@eurovisioncyan9550]

When will Vsauce1 finally make free videos?

[@luizmila]

Idk man

[@shawniscoolerthanyou]

There's already a ton.

[@naffal1538]

What is this question

[@burnt520]

Why shouldn't he get paid for the hard work he puts into his videos

[@jy4985]

I bet on the rows in roulette, and do some recovery bets where I bet what i lost, not doubling it every time. It gives me more spins. Plus you can see the micro trends and bet with it. The rows also pay out 2 to 1, not 1 to 1 like black jack. The trick is to leave when your up. Because over time the odds and table limit ARE against you. Also setting a hard ceiling for what you can comfortably loose and stick with it. I stop when I'm up 100 or 200 and call that a good night.

[@zackdelmonte6615]

@Vsauce2: where can I get my hands on that awesome deck of playing cards!? Got a link for those?

[@Burn1ngR4g3]

Woah just seen it on LTT

[@cookiemazino3731]

*Was never so early on a vsauce video.Nice* *Edit:That robot is so cute.*

[@carealoo744]

I'm watching this in September, nearly a year after he first uploaded it. Poor Vsauce2, thought showing glow-in-the-dark cards, would cause me to click faster! :)

[@swlisman]

The best strategies I have found are flat betting and a gradual positive progression where you increase your bet by $5 with each win. If you lose a hand with the latter, stay where you are (lose $10, bet $10) until you win, then increase to &15. I build up $50 and then start the process over.

[@khaledismail8713]

can i get those cards anywhere?

[@TheKidPyro]

www.amazon.com/Elephant-Playing-Cards-Prism-Incredible/dp/B07CQJTLQ5

[@spimatti]

The duel arena has taken all my sugar cubes

[@pengchengwu447]

You really put theory in practical terms.

[@notyetskeletal4809]

I chased that sugary cube for 12 years. So relieved I broke that addiction this year.