The Odds of This Happening Are 1 In 6,288,482,304

[@curiousNic]

Most epic cubing livestream for sure. And the odds of a STUCUBE video not being interesting and entertaining are astronomically low.

[@young_sheldon471]

​​@IonRubyhe has more subs than all the people you've ever known combined

[@KrMaCoW]

@@young_sheldon471 subs dont matter bruh

[@vickytb]

@@young_sheldon471imagine he says “erm i know mr beast!🤓👆

[@darkdestroyer32]

I have absolutely no idea what the hell you are all going on about with all these algebraic equations and acronyms, but you all seem excited about it, and that's pretty neat! 😊

[@_And_y_]

I think they’re speaking in code, really cool!

[@finixmoon127]

For clarification, the CFOP technique is composed of 4 different phases : Cross, First 2 Layers (F2L), Orientation of the Last Layer (OLL) and Permutation of the Last Layer (PLL). Not sure what you are referring to when it comes to “algebraic equations” lol (maybe the probability calculation ?). Hope this was helpful

[@Potato_pigeon]

Involves 0 math. Just some color and pattern recognition. THATS it

[@CuberCaiden]

Literally I was walking into Chuck E' Cheese and I was like, "I'll check out the stream quickly, and just barely missed the solve, only witnessing the reaction. I was so freaked out, just absolutely insane. Awesome video, happy to see the solve get more exposure!

[@Gladiator6]

That’s crazy

[@Corner_twisted]

Hey caiden!

[@SidneyKocen]

CHUCK E CHEESES 🙏 😭 😭

[@Idktho767]

I understood nothing

[@robonoidx7484]

well

[@jockeboss]

Same, but the video was still really good!

[@BenGilman]

You need to understand F2l, PLL, and OLL

[@mrrooter601]

@@BenGilman *nodding in agreement* (I have no idea what that means)

[@absorb1505]

​@@mrrooter601 are you even a cuber?

[@whydiditypedis8510]

0:27 as a person who lives in the red zone, the chances of picking me is zero.

[@gappleofdiscord9752]

that little bit of the earth that actually has like 1.8B people lol

[@Untoldanimations]

3:50 I guess you could argue it’s only a PLL skip and not LL skip since he forced OLL, but then again that VLS is just one of the three-ish standard ways to insert that F2L pair anyway so it could happen naturally

[@dragonfruitreal]

as someone who has never solved a rubik's cube in their life this is the most insane comment I have ever seen

[@rigatoni_joe5090]

@@dragonfruitrealI can solve a Rubik’s cube but in the most noob way possible and this comment is still mostly illegible

[@theantrules6436]

reading these comments make me proud of myself for understanding it so easily lol

[@soisaus564]

its not a forced oll, its just a cancel into oll its a really easy case

[@Untoldanimations]

@@soisaus564 how is cancelling into OLL not forcing OLL

[@scliffbartoni9771]

I get that elated when STUCUBE uploads

[@ILoveToYoYo2]

FACTS LOL

[@christopher_campbell]

Me too

[@SClassCubing]

Bro, that's absolutely insane! Great video. If it weren't for you, I wouldn't know half of the stuff I know when it comes to speedcubing news.

[@VEWCubing]

ok this is kinda like the case in j perm's 5.31 where the ll skip kinda counts as a pll skip in the 2.95. he did a trick to skip oll which gave him a pll skip which could be counted as a ll skip, but since the ols forced the oll skip its basically a pll skip. even so, its still very unlikely to get all these in the same mo3

[@jettyung2389]

Your channel is really good. Great editing and pacing.

[@STUCUBE]

I really appreciate that, glad you enjoyed!

[@Crzcr1z]

He really got lucky there and then got unlucky, your channel's popping off man keep it up

[@joelcathey]

This was my reaction when I got one side to be all the same color

[@andrewstanizzi]

Dylan +2 out of a 3.95 official solve at Cardinal cube day yesterday also

[@xKR33Px]

I wish we had this style when i was a kid. I was around 40 sec. We would always be putting oil on ours but they will still hang up and slow you down. Even so, these knew times you guys are doing is amazing.

[@aarbeienmelk]

i have to look at these things for 30 minutes and this guy just does it in 3 seconds

[@qawwamakbar2014]

I GOT 3 OLL SKIPS IN A ROW (18.70,21.44,20.69) yesterday

[@fythers6273]

He actually solved in 2.5 seconds it just took him .45 seconds to press the timer

[@marklouistan888]

bro released his inner ishowspeed on the first solve 💀

[@bradenrowlett8890]

These odds are incorrect. The standard probability of a LL skip do not apply to algorithm subsets that influence the natural odds of it occurring. Strictly CFOP, yes, LL is 1/15,000. However, with WV, OLS, COLL, ZBLL etc. these odds become much more probable

[@ZippyRoblox_]

34 thousand solves is crazy

[@Shmared]

Yeah I've had two LL skips in a day but I still know a lot of LL skip cases and I wasn't doing them timed. It's crazy that this happened in a row like that...

[@I_like_smashburgers]

0:30 “minus this little bit over here” Me living in south east Asia be like…

[@Torok.Agoston]

The calculation is wrong. Your chance of having an LL skip is 1:15552 ONLY if you insert the last pair the same random way every time. Even if you pay attention on inserting the last pair as a sledge hammer when needed instead of an R U' R', your chances of getting an LL skip is immediately becomes 2:15552 , so 1:7776. If you know other OLL skipping techniquies (which he clearly do), your chances can easily be around 1:1000 for an LL skip, or even better. Of course it's still amazing to have more LL skips in a row, but you can't say that he has 1:15552 chance for these skips. For an other example: you can say that your chance for PLL skip on a 2x2 is 1:6. But as soon as someone knows all CLL, your PLL skip chance is 1:1. Your knowledge affect your skip chances a lot!

[@shkatre]

Damm

[@Torok.Agoston]

@@shkatre ? 🙂

[@jacobstamp818]

3:14 this is insane. i had no idea this was even a thing

[@mrrooter601]

something something cosmic rays

[@_aquice]

New STUCUBE video 🔥🔥

[@nivcubing]

yes

[@michaelmurray6197]

The funniest part for me is the nearly half a second where he had just skipped OLL and I don't think he realized yet that he had also skipped PLL. If he had known he was skipping both he probably would have been closer to 2.5 seconds instead of 2.95.

[@KadenDockins-SpeedCuber-vg7ug]

Aye lets go, I accidentally predicted you would make this lol, glad to see you made a video on this!!!

[@STUCUBE]

Yeah I had to haha, I saw your comment as I was working on it

[@orlanswf]

yo, very hype stuff, and great video. your content is really growing on me, excellent quality. subbed ;-) keep at it

[@treygrogan13]

A few days ago I got the same exact oll to pll skip . Will probably never happen again in my life again.

[@DoubleeyAG]

damn, many many people really have a WR potencial for the 3x3 single

[@RubiKubiK313]

Remember cubers if a cat ever laughs at you because it has 9 lives just throw you’re 3x3 at it although the odds of a cat laughing at you are really low ;)

[@MaximumCuber]

People keep getting last layer skips😂 I still haven’t got one. great vid btw👍

[@SophiaLiechtenstein]

Try using VLS, 1/72 chances, or ZZ Method with 1/1944, maybe you can get at least 1🤣

[@darrenlo9802]

I did get one but not on camera

[@Shaquille69355]

Love the vids, very concise and informative

[@watchf]

He also had a pause at the end of the

[@katsuya063]

A couple days ago I did my 3rd ever sub10 but it wasn't actually a sub10, it was a sub5. I did scrabble the cube like normal but during inspection I caught 2 pairs but decided to start with yellow and somehow I ended up with a last layer skip. I did *3.17*. I can never imagine myself doing something similar ever again.

[@wbg6500]

Almost nothing compared to shuffling a deck of cards the same way

[@SeeImHappy]

2.4 seconds for the solve is wild (this was right when the cube was solved)

[@Cubanormal]

Brooooo Sub-3 ON A STACKMAT????? That is insane!!

[@ismaelechiarella]

5:35 if he did M' U R U' Rw' he would've gotten OLL skip another time

[@robbirulla]

all that while listening to sematary is INSANE

[@Miner13-rk8qx]

that is ridiculous how lucky that was! but what are the odds of it happening on a live stream!

[@zeragon7]

Loving this channel. That Mo3 is WILD

[@brandiepop]

this might be the fastest solve including inspection ever

[@STUCUBE]

Wait that’s actually true I remember Max had a mid 3 with like 2-3 secs inspection a couple years ago but this was up there for sure

[@capitalpi9014]

The probability you described is misleading. It is correct if those were the only 3 solves he ever did and if he did very basic CFOP, but because he already did a bunch of solves before getting the last layer skip, the odds for the actual sequence should start there at a higher chance of his previous solve happening. Your number fails to take into account his long history of solves. You also have to take into account his higher likelihood to get a ll or pll skip based on his intense knowledge and skill. The actual odds are really somewhere closer to 1/1,746,360,000. Still astronomically low, but not really as extreme as you described. Note that this number does take into account the order in which the solves are done. I feel that the two last layer skips in a row are important enough to be included in this probability, but know that if you didn't care about the order of these 3 events it would be close to 1/249,480,000. These numbers are also still slightly off, because in order to know the true probability you would need to know how many solves it has been since his last ll skip. All we can do now is make our best guess based on cumulative odds up to 50%. Probability is super useful, but it can be misleading when used improperly or inaccurately.

[@crimaxlego9546]

GREAT video

[@raymonddireito8794]

He is solving a 3x3 as fast as I solve a 2x2. And I’m not the best at 2x2 I don’t even know Ortega, but still danm

[@turnerschaming5859]

Oh my goodness gracious it’s Owen Stotts. You love to see it

[@STUCUBE]

There’s actually no way Optimal Views is a viewer of the channel

[@optimalviews]

@@STUCUBE Someone say optimal?? Might need a collab

[@dphdmn]

1/60000 is already wrong. Oll skip was not random. It's pll skip with no auf, which is 1/288 Also LL skip is 1/15552, not 15000 And you can't just make up random probabilities over and over, the pll skip is not the only "lucky" thing that can happen on next solve. For example, if you consider pll skip OR oll skip OR LL skip for next solve it divides probabilities by a lot Also, considering this: event that happened is as good as having 2 pll OR oll skips and 1 LL skip among 3 solves. Getting oll OR pll skip is 1/54 LL skip can be any of 3 solves and it still be good So the final probability should be like 3/(15552*54*54) or 1 in 15116544. So yeah, one in 15 millions. Pretty lucky for mo3 with the assumption that 2nd skip was truly random. Although not impossible, like 1 in 6 billion or whatever.

[@Leon-ol6oe]

Thank you very much, I am so glad I am not the only one unhappy with this calculation. I also want to add something: I am 90% sure that the last one was also not a PLL skip. Basically any cuber at that level knows the ZBLL for that case, because it's just the mirrored alg of the standard OLL. I am pretty sure he recognized that, because he did that instead of the standard alg. So if you want to be generous, you can try to calculate the probability for getting a case where he knows the ZBLL or would get a PLL skip randomly, but since I wouldn't consider it super lucky to get a case you know the ZBLL for, I would just say, this was no skip at all. Then we are just talking about one LL skip and one PLL skip or luckier. I think then the probability would be around 2/(15552*54) or 1 in 419,904. This is still very unlikely, but it's a completely different dimension from what is said in the video. Now I want to add another perspective: This guy has been speedcubing for more than 9 years. Let's assume he did an average of 50 solves everyday, which is a very generous estimation, I believe. Then he did 164.250 solves in his live already. That basically means he got 164.250 chances to get such an unlikely event already. With that amount of solves, the chance of getting at least one unlikely event like that is 32.4%. If we estimate higher and say he solved it 100 times every day, it becomes a 54.3% chance already. And if we say he solved it 200 times a day, it becomes a 79.1% chance. Arguably, in the beginning of his career the times wouldn't have been as impressive, so this would lower the chance of getting an event like this again, but it's not completely out of this world that it happens.

[@WinkyWacko]

you know he's a speedcuber because he actually calculated the odds lol

[@SedgeHermit]

2.71 will be the final 3x3 WR time in a WCA sanctioned event. You saw it here first.

[@oldscooljoe6194]

Not entirely true odds, as he had an infinite amount of tries to get the first LL skip, so there is about a 1 in 420,000 odds of this happening. Of getting an LL skip and a PLL skip back to back right after getting another LL skip. Also he knows how to skip oll in cases like this, he wouldnt have gotten a ll skip if he didnt know how to skip pll. Making the odds of this happening even more likely. So the 1 in 6,000,000,000 is kind of clickbaity

[@Untoldanimations]

this is the most sensible take

[@CubingMJ]

When I first heard Dylan I thought he was talking about jperm lol

[@CubingMJ]

Also great vid!

[@axo342]

I see you everywhere now lol

[@christopher_campbell]

Keep making such informative and entertaining videos 🎉

[@GardGjerdalen]

I Swear i got an Oll and pll skip before

[@cubingiscool]

wow, he is a prodigy

[@JohnAJ-07]

I love your content my brother 🤟 , ey maybe the WR will be beaten soon who knows

[@gericubing]

Now kyle, tymon and dylan got a sub 3 single on cam omg!!!

[@ThisIsWEB]

Yeah we call him 6 Billy Milly where I'm from (☞⌐▀͡ ͜ʖ͡▀ )☞

[@ImchautzuCHAUTZU]

Bro is hitting the Black Flash record next😭

[@yassir8479]

2 last layer skips in a row is just really insane sub 3 single soon

[@KaPe-lol]

What are your thoughts on his official 3.95+2 he just got this weekend?

[@coolpizzalf8960]

imagine if yiheng got it

[@skansky__]

2.95 on stackmat is CRAZY

[@maxmustermann2344]

I think the intuition behind the odds of 1 in 6.2 billion is a bit off. This is only the probability to see those phenomenons in this exact order. You could roll a dice 20 times and the exact sequence would have a probability of 1 in 6^20. Would be more interesting to calculate the probability to have more or the same amount of luck in 3 consecutive solves than seen in this video (much more than 1 in 6.2 billion).

[@rixgames69]

I got this vid on my recommended randomly and I didn't understand much, other than that it is rare i guess

[@_aquice]

Meanwhile, Yiheng gets sub-4 ao5...

[@gregory3173]

I got four pll skips in a row and within the next 20 solves I got 2 last layer skips and an oll skip

[@pandahhh9115]

I watched it live, btw that is what I call dream odds

[@Helixo_Lyrics]

I was watching this video and I did a random solve and I got a pll skip

[@MalCollab]

Epic content

[@akmuchbetter9782]

i got a 5.68 on the scramble and i missed LL skip and got pll skip instead, why can i not get these scrambles!!

[@OneHandedIsCool]

Bro gets two LL skips in a row when I haven’t even got 1 😢

[@SilverCuber]

Hey Stu! Love your videos! Also I was wondering if you will be at the European Championship this year?

[@STUCUBE]

Thanks! Not this year but it’s something I’d consider doing in the future. I live in the US so it’s pretty far away from where I am

[@temikgl]

awesome video, i really liked this one

[@STUCUBE]

Glad you enjoyed!

[@penguineapig1719]

i got an OFFICIAL ll skip with no auf and got 15.92 oh single (my 2 hand average is like 12)

[@joranpauwels]

I'm not sure how you get 1 in 6,288,482,304 because if you do: 15552*4*15552*72 (the 4 is from the AUF skip) you get 69,657,034,725 but the first solve technically only had a pll skip because he did VLS so you would get: 72*4*15552*72 which is 322,486,272 So i'm not sure where the number 6,288,482,304 comes from or am i missing something?

[@ADV00807]

Yeah i thought so too

[@goldeer7129]

Yeah and multiplying by 4 for AUF is quite arbitrary, that's not the impressive part but if you add details the mn the probability of the thing happening just gets lower

[@edwin_pig]

He secretly learn 1LLL

[@bene2451]

the map analogy you did at the beginning doesn't account for people who live outside of the region in question. the actual probability for your example would be p(lives in region)*1/(population of region) not just 1/(population of region)

[@KobiHameed]

0:30 duolingo sound (wrong answer)

[@ReubenBBX]

insane

[@Dart_39]

I have no idea what is happening

[@Krisztiiimerciii]

4.16 🤣

[@ADV00807]

Can you please explain the math I get 15552x15552x4x72 15552 is the Chance of A last layer skip/ 4 is because of the no auf on the first solve and 72 is the pll skip I don't know if you count the first solve as a last layer skip. Alvast bedankt (don't know English translation)

[@ADV00807]

I get 1 in 69.657.034.752

[@Aladdindoescubes]

no auf is unninportant on the math

[@nathansatnarain9079]

Als je heel specifiek wil zijn, zou het thanks in advance zijn, maar zeg gewoon thanks of thank you zou ook voldoende zijn.

[@MannifyYT2024]

@@Aladdindoescubeswithout AUF its stil over twice the world population

[@ILoveToYoYo2]

[@brunomcleod]

012 literally

[@Cloud_Effect]

10/10 Content Bro

[@peapore_smo]

what cube was he using?

[@User-Hunterthecuber]

4:15-4:18 💀🤣

[@Strawberryfreak]

You know, after thousands of solves, you might get this somewhere in ur life hahahaha

[@ryanbishoop]

goat

[@Kavukamari]

how is anyone able to scramble their own cube, if they're so skilled that they can make such fast movements and feel solves out, won't they just accidentally memorize the movements they've done to the cube? or is there a technique for scrambling that guarantees randomness without the possibility of reverse engineering your scramble?

[@STUCUBE]

If you go check out his stream (which is linked in the description) you’ll see him do a full session of solves where everything is computer generated and he follows the scrambles he sees on screen. Yes, technically they could be reversed, but when reconstructing the solve and how he did it we can see that it was clearly his own solution

[@Kavukamari]

@@STUCUBE I Guess that makes Sense, if the computer generates a scramble that is a long list of moves then it wouldn't be useful to try to reverse it because it would waste time, so generating your own solve is always better because the techniques will skip a lot of unnecessary moves

[@Untoldanimations]

@@Kavukamariit would be very apparent if someone tried to reverse a scramble, so it’s not something to worry about ;)

[@ShadyEditzzzz]

good video!

[@Jackofallcubes]

I had to leave the stream to eat dinner so I missed the solve😭😭😭

[@kiskurious2867]

Same here

[@pengusplayz5756]

My skin is peeling off due to radioactivity

[@STUCUBE]

Get well soon bro

[@pengusplayz5756]

@@STUCUBE no thanks

[@mikayla3878]

W reaction

[@cuberootme]

Xingkai Ying got 2 LL skip in a row on camera.

[@STUCUBE]

Didn’t know that. I guess this is the first 2 handed consecutive LL skips

[@cuberootme]

@@STUCUBE yep

[@dphdmn]

One of his solves was zbll Skip (x8)

[@kungzhujo]

dilly milly my goat