The Poker Value Mystery: How Thin is TOO THIN?

[@wompwomp7177]

Love callers line especially after UTG checks flop. I have a deep love for the idea of depolarizing to get bluff caught from hands that wouldn’t usually call value bets

[@rcadegaming9123]

Deep love

[@wompwomp7177]

@@joes11 no to what?

[@mannesneuer]

FWIW, I ran this hand through PokerSnowie's Scenario feature. The results are: Preflop: pure fold Flop (as played): 50% split between bet 1/4 pot and check back Turn (as played): Pure check River (as played): Pure check

[@grahamplayscards]

you're running a solve for a 4 way SRP 200bbs deep? what kind of assumptions are you/the solver making to run this? just seems crazy to say this is "solvable"

[@1vailchris]

Folding pre with this setup seems too tight. I can get behind the small flop bet, multi-way, on this board texture. Think I'd bet big on turn, like 2/3 pot, then check-back on river. Taking that line makes it seem unlikely V can call a v-bet on the river with a hand worse than KQ.

[@mannesneuer]

@@grahamplayscards PokerSnowie makes its own assumptions and does allow for a 200BB deep multiway scenario. It is an AI based on millions of hands played against itself. This is not to say whether or not the caller's play is correct or not, simply to provide a useful data point for reference.

[@mannesneuer]

@@1vailchrisThat's probably how I'd play the hand as well. It was interesting to me though to see that the AI takes a much more conservative path in this case. When I dig into its UTG opening range and LJ cold calling range, that explains a lot.

[@EllieBanks333]

Throw that thing away

[@montezuma6962]

Normally callers who sell us on how skilled they are, will casually mention that they're $4500 deep in a $1000 capped game after playing for 3 hours. So in that regard, this call was a bit of an anomaly.

[@timmyp34]

I have noticed that also.

[@Optable]

"The table has two 'very solid loose aggressive' recreational pro's, and some elderly blind men. I will not tell you the room, although it wouldn't matter to begin with, since I 'typically crush' it worldwide. Therefore Ill just give a quick background on hero. We're about 2600 deep at 1-2 300max; effective stack is 450. Just wanted to add I'm on the list for the 5-10 though ha ha. Lately I've been mixing a blended GTE x GTE and found optimal results. Yelling profusely at weak players for their bad plays, shaking the table, and farting towards the player on my left for reads; as part of my Gigantic Tilting Exploit approach, With a blend of over calling, over folding, and mucking all winners to secure insta handles and offer up my room with the Gentle Towards Euro optimized strategy. Here's a link to my LendingMob, feel free to donate to my bankroll.

[@masterhakk]

It's the only part of these videos that annoys me honestly. Why do these players think we care if they are ahead. It's not a tournament and every hand is a new hand

[@mrhumble2937]

​@masterhakk because it matters in the story. From effective stack or being down and taking chances. Never even thought about it not sure why you would care or assume it's a brag.

[@1vailchris]

The stack sizes matter when it comes to deciding how much to raise, whether or not to 3B or 4B, when to jam, etc. Starting this hand with deeper stacks, hero might think about 3B'ing pre or checking back on river.

[@Unhingedanduninformed]

The fact that he called, holding the jack of hearts which eliminates a ton of draws his opponent could be bluffing with here unless his Jack was super week. But I have to assume it was paired with an Ace or a king.

[@JiveDadson]

Sick merge, dude.

[@jackiesee1907]

Thought: the open jam here feels odd, like one of those situations that when he calls you cringe. There are few hands you best which should call here. Instead, what if he took a block bet sizing ~$200ish. He might then get a crying call from AK, Qx, Jx, and the small size may induce a bluff from a busted heart or straight draw. And if he jams over top now you are just bluff catching with a strong hand getting 3:1

[@rainersantos3986]

my exact thoughts, bravo

[@1vailchris]

Great value bet on river, perhaps, but I think I'd just check-back there, against a good player, more often than not. V called flop and turn, so it looks like V either has Ace-high and will probably fold, or could have some better hands that will likely call, and might want to check-raise. V's got all the sets, over-pairs, TPTK and Top 2 in his range. The range of hands V can have that can call and that hero beats is just so narrow. It's basically just KJ and AJ. I think a solid reg would play AA / KK /AQ this way, on this board, multi-way, too often for me to try to get three streets of value.

[@ewallt]

I think it’s close. I’d lean towards a check there because it seems doubtful you’ll get called by worse often enough to make value betting the right play, but I wouldn’t expect to see very strong hands by V very often, because they’d be worried about losing value by having it go check check at the end.

[@1vailchris]

@@ewallt I dunno. Hero took the betting lead on the flop, and barreled turn. When someone takes that line on a board like this, I somewhat expect them to continue betting the river when it gets checked to them, either for thin value or as a bluff. It somewhat depends on how aggro I think they are. Against an aggro opponent, I'm going to check, fully expecting them to bet. Against a more cautious opponent, I'll bet the river for value if I have a hand that's probably best.

[@bbtb05]

Kudos to the caller for getting some thin value I would have likely missed BUT this seems like a pretty insane jam on the river, mostly because I feel like 'the best player in the room' had to have made a pretty substantial mistake by calling. Like what hand that contains a Jh isn't a terrible bluff catching candidate on this river? It just had to contain a heart right? Also if it contains an ace, king, ten, or nine it is going to be blocking busted straight draws as well. That combined with the fact it was 4 ways to the flop and 3 ways to the turn makes me very much question this bluff catch. Unless the caller is a known maniac who way over bluffs in all spots I feel like the UTG player probably made a significant mistake and we should probably be careful what lessons we learn from this hand.

[@1vailchris]

I'm inclined to agree. Maybe I don't understand blockers well enough, but it seems to me that you would NOT want the Jh here if you're going to bluff-catch. V should prefer hero might possibly have Jh, I'd think. I think I'd just be checking back here with hero's hand, and folding anything worse than QT if I'm villain.

[@bbtb05]

Naw that's exactly the correct way to look at blockers. To be clear I don't think any Jx should really be bluff catching here. There bigger issue (than blockers) is that 4 people saw the flop, it is just way to easy for someone to simply have 55 or QJ, (or AQ/KQ that they simply don't shut down with on this runout) and as the second flatter those type of hands are probably well represented in the callers range. UTG should generally just not be doing much bluff catching here at all. But yes because of blocker reasons the Jh (especially with another heart) has to be one of the worst bluff catching cards. @@1vailchris

[@grahamplayscards]

Having the Jh isn’t super relevant as any JhX hand I have has showdown so I’m actually further polarized to bricked FD/SD because he has the Jh. Now I will say having a suit other than the Q would be good to block my QJs as I’m not flatting QJo pre, but that’s a small note. Having a J blocks me from having any set but 55.

[@bbtb05]

It is relevant though? It is not the most relevant thing because again I don't think UTG can profitably call with any Jx in this spot against a triple barrel that was made against 3 opponents on the flop and then 2 on the turn. But having the Jh is by far the worst J because both that he should have folded any middle pair of jacks that wasn't also a flush draw by the turn (at the latest) but also yes if the CO only has QJs (side note: It is all well and good that you wouldn't have QJo here but don't assume that means no one in your playing pool would have it) then that is another reason UTG wants to have a J that is not the Jh. The Jh doesn't eliminate any QJs as the Qh is on the board, but having either the Js or Jd WOULD eliminate a combo of QJs, making it a better bluff catcher on the river. Again, still probably bad but better than the Jh @@grahamplayscards

[@jamiestewart3452]

Totally agree, I think a HUGE % of the time we're not good when we get called here. I think we're getting called by better almost 90% of the time tbh.

[@themi6sportsnetwork171]

I've noticed in online poker especially, people get punished for 3betting UTG way too light and then end up in an awkward situation where the UTG 4bet jams or makes it an uncomfortable amount. I think it's a logical fallacy that you need to 4bet or fold certain hands. When you have position on an UTG player, you'd rather play mediocre-above average holdings like J10s and KQos passively because you will get to realize your implied odds against the other player's narrow UTG range when you hit trips, two pair, or a straight against premium holdings.

[@CowSaysMooMoo]

how do you 3bet UTG? ohhhh...you mean reraising the UTG guy from a later position

[@sareykim]

@@CowSaysMooMoo- yes.

[@graham269]

So hard to get called by worse on the river if it checks to you there. A jam is horrible.

[@thaThRONe]

That was my thinking. Calling with the J of hearts is bad if you are giving a player a heart draw. Like you have the J the Q is on the board what combo of hearts is betting 3 streets with a missed draw?

[@1vailchris]

@@thaThRONe KT or AT of hearts is all I can put into hero's range for bluffs, unless hero is bluffing with any AX of hearts and any KT combo. I don't really understand H's jam with KQ or V's call with Jh. I'd have checked back with hero's hand, and folded anything worse than AQ if I was V, or maybe worse than QT, if I somehow got to the river with a hand that weak.

[@karlinchina]

Preflop, if you go three ways or more, you can play more straightforward and bet for value with one pair against the recs. The good player will be forced to play more straightforward (unless he's a sicko and runs bluffs multiway). Heads up against the good player is not great. If he checks and you bet and take down a small pot, it's a small pot with close to max rake. He can also bluff you off a single pair or value bet you with top pair better kicker.

[@masterhakk]

On the river i would just check back personally. I already got my 2.streets of value. Too many times is the villain holding jack queen or something and im just gonna value own myself

[@paulpena5040]

Not a fan of that river jam. Most of the time weaker hands are folding (that might have called smaller bets) and stronger hands could make a crying call. The fact that villain called is amazing. If he had a heart draw why is he putting YOU on one? A random J is just too thin to bluff catch but congrats on the big score!

[@KimmyTheDarkTrader]

I feel that the river play is so strange, both Hero and Villain. Villain shows Jack of hearts but called the river putting Hero range on busted draw? Then Villain call 225 OTT and Hero jam river with highly likely second best if we look back OTT action. I can't get it. I just feel strange move after the Turn betting round.

[@benb7613]

Just curious - is the "2/5 at Chasers" @ 7:15 referencing the poker room in New Hampshire? That's actually nearby for me - do you think it's an especially soft game?

[@ewallt]

I didn’t understand Bart’s comment towards the end in regards to depolarizing and improving your win rate. What was his point?

[@AT-bw4cm]

Why would AQ check this flop with the betting lead? The board is wet and it's 4handed. There's no hand that villain can have at a decent frequency that beats hero on the river.

[@1vailchris]

V is OOP four-ways to the flop. Bad rec's are going to show up with QJ or chase their draws often enough that taking a pot control / defensive line by checking flop with AA, KK and AQ is understandable. Hero's bet sizing suggests top two, so V can't go crazy with over-pairs or TPTK.

[@AT-bw4cm]

@@1vailchris You don't pot contol against draws. You bet and get value from them. If they have QJ offsuit then they probably have Q10 (8 combos), Q9s (2), Q8s (2), AJ (12), KJ (12), J10 (12), J9s (3), J8s (3), K10 (12), 109s (4), 108s (4), and flush draws, probably all Ax but half would be (5 combos), plus 76, 87 of hearts (2 combos.) If UTG had AQ, he could lose to a set of 5 and even throw in a set of J for for 6 combos plus 6 combos of QJ. 81 vs 12 is why a good player in UTG spot is almost always cbetting with AQ on this flop. An overpair is even better because it unblocks top pair. So in this hand also getting value from KQ and AQ.

[@1vailchris]

@@AT-bw4cm Good luck with that at low stakes. If you c-bet with AQ UTG four ways, go bet-bet-bet, and get called down to the river, you're almost never going to see an opponent show up with a worse hand than TPTK. It's going to be QJ or better if you take that line.

[@AT-bw4cm]

@@1vailchris From UTG's perspective, holding AQ, there are 6 possible combos of QJ that an opponent can have on the flop but they don't have those 6 combos by the river because, 4ways with a draw heavy board, QJ is going to raise at a high frequency on the flop or turn.

[@1vailchris]

@@AT-bw4cm Re-watch the video from about 19:10 to 19:20. Bart's saying V is going to have AQ or over-pairs here sometimes. Think about the typical low stakes rec player, and their actions following a bet from the OOP aggressive player, depending on that player's bet sizing. If you bet big from OOP, they're not going to raise you very often with QJ. If you bet small, they're mostly just going to call with all their draws. Sometimes they won't even raise with QJ when you bet small. It's good to have some stronger hands in your flop checking range as the PFR, so you can avoid disasters in situations like this, where you're either going to win a small pot or lose a huge one.

[@1312Mork2]

lol at bart calling turn with AK wtf

[@Saomaro007]

Am i very wrong thinking on the Flop getting checked too. If i bet, i would like to bet rather small like 20-30 -ish. So i can keep a Q ofc but maybe also smth like J10/j9 in? Also if i would be frequently + multiway isnt like small usually the way to go? Im not sure if im thinking wrong and maybe its better to go bigger to thin out the field. But my first thought would be i might have a Q still in, but usually a ton of Flush Draws / Straight Draws that would call a big bet, then hands i still have very dominated? And is betting like 10 -15% Pot in the end an option or rather check / All-In? Would love some insights :) Thanks for the Videos !!

[@sirpaddlesworthiii5933]

fold pre, check flop, check turn, check river

[@gabrielrockman]

I like the caller's logic preflop wanting to keep the weaker players in the LJ and button in the hand instead of 3 betting and probably getting heads up with the UTG solid player. Especially if it means getting heads up into a larger pot against the best player in the room.

[@1vailchris]

Agreed. Multi-way, the solid reg is going to have a harder time c-betting into three opponents. He's going to have a harder time calling down light. If the reg understands hero isn't a bad rec, he's going to have to respect hero's taking the lead on the flop and barreling the turn. The fact that there are multiple people going to flop and turn makes hero's line a little more credible, and makes the hand-reading on the river a little easier for hero. I'm just not sure it's a good idea to v-bet the river here, after V called flop and turn. He's going to show up here with AA / KK / AQ too often for me to try to get three streets of value with KQ. Surprising V called down with just Jx.

[@charlesnewborn3760]

You're absolutely atrocious if you think Villian has Sets/2Pairs/TPTK in his range after check calling flop... then check calling turn! Only a suicidal maniac is slowplaying the turn on a super draw heavy board. He capped his range completely to a draw of some sort, or middle pair. Possibly Q10. But he also CHECKED the flop after raising pre which isn't standard.

[@snex000]

His logic applies to any two cards not just KQo, which means it can't possibly be good logic.

[@1vailchris]

@@charlesnewborn3760 Sets or 2P? No. TPTK? Yes, sometimes, as well as over-pairs sometimes. Hero's going to have 2P or better here often enough that V can't go crazy with TPTK and over-pairs.

[@jackmehoff1776]

All time thumbnail lol😂

[@Greg_Ulmer]

It feels so good when these sort of plays work, although this seems like a bad spot!

[@johnwallner]

What's a tag and lag?

[@officeofpeaceinformation5094]

If Villian really is best player in the room Then I hate my hand when he calls turn And on River he either has us beat or can’t even call a small bet, ie. he missed a combo draw He never shows up here with a second best hand he’s paying off with, esp multi way I’m snap checking River, expecting to win roughly half the time Based on the reveal, maybe callers read on him is questionable?

[@pot_kivach160]

V best player in the room!!

[@PokrRat777]

Without seeing the result, is there any logic in betting small to target AK, Jx, or to induce a bluff? We value own ourselves against AQ but we might get a crying call out of AK or Jx and someone might spazz if they think were weak. As played, villain doesn't have many hands that raise river for value, except maybe 55.

[@ticenits1926]

Absolutely this is a small bet 100% of the time to keep our opponents wide

[@ob105]

The rare casino Bart hasn't played in lol

[@timothynguyen4446]

I feel like range-merge bets like this for thin value is ultimately a counter versus a good player in an otherwise weak field who correctly deduces that most low-stakes players are not good enough to bet thin value, so almost all river bets are polarized. That being said, I don’t know if I can really see a “good” villain calling the river too often with hands that the hero beats. If the villain is making calls like JhXx then it becomes extremely profitable. But, like, the villain did make a terrible call here, and this JhXx is probably a pure fold here on balance. In reality, I think a balanced calling range from UTG is only losing to KQ like 20-30% of the time (QT, AJ, maybe JTs).

[@Badbentham]

Yeah: Hero was probably rather lucky that Villain likely had one of the 3 combos of a non-Heart Ace with the Jh. Which unblocks all bluffs with Hearts, KT, or T9s that Hero could have. Villain should never call with JThh, while other JTs did not survive the Turn. QT , blocking the T, is probably a worse bluff catcher hero against a regular Value range from Hero than AJo. Plus, Villain might not even have too many QTo in his UTG range: QTs alone would be just 3 combos as well. - The remaining question then is how often Villain has AQ in his range at the River. I assume: At least enough to make the shove rather dicey . Edit: A small added benefit, though, to shoving is that it may get Villain sometimes off a split, when he folds KQ.

[@1vailchris]

I'm surprised V called with Jx, especially the Jh. I'd think V gets here with AA / KK / AQ often enough that KQ should just be a check-back on the river.

[@Badbentham]

@@1vailchris Well: The Jh should be rarely in Hero's triple-barrel bluffing range. Flop: Villain felt he had enough backdoor potential. Turn: He decided to get sticky, seeing enough bluffs in Hero's range, while still often enough having 5 outs to improve. - Fairly loose, that much is true.

[@1vailchris]

@@Badbentham It's entirely possible I'm wrong in my thinking here, because the blocker effects at various points in the hand can start to confuse me. I'd think villain would prefer to have JhXx (AhJh?) on the flop, because of the draw potential, but NOT have the Jh when he calls hero's bet on the river, because not having it would make it more likely hero has the Jh, in a hand like AxJh, or maybe KxJh. Hands like that, hero might bet on the river when V checks a third time, if hero is the type to make a mistake by turning Jx into a bluff or thinking he's v-betting with the best hand. It's tempting to infer too much about the V's from these calls, but if V called with JhXx, that would seem to imply V thinks hero is bluffing here a lot, with a wide range of missed draws, or betting way too thin for value, with hands worse than JhXx. As played, I think v-betting here with KQ is a little too thin, and calling with JhXx is way too loose. V should have better bluff catchers here than Jx. If we were watching this hand play out between two decent or good regs, I'd expect to see QJ vs AA/KK or even AQ more often than KQ vs JhXx.

[@Badbentham]

@@1vailchris Of course: Villain probably gave Hero most OESDs and many Flush draws, while Hero's actual Value only consists of QJ and 55. - He argued that the 3 combos of AxJh are still the relatively "best" of his "weak" bluff catchers, and actually in practice not worse than KK : KK blocks many of Hero's KT bluffs, while AJ blocks huge chunks of Hero's Value. KK beats AQ, though. Which becomes mostly relevant for the somewhat unrealistic scenario that Hero should flat with it after a caller , instead of squeezing with it preflop. - He, understandably, was caught by real surprise that Hero would play so over-aggressively with KQ on all three streets.

[@nikitakucherov5028]

If villan is best player in the room you are in a damn good room

[@WokeSteve]

So the shove looks like a missed draw.

[@pot_kivach160]

to who? To a best player in the room?

[@1vailchris]

It's supposed to look like a missed draw, yes. In theory, the jam is polarized to a very strong hand or a missed draw, but this is an example of de-polarizing by value-betting with a medium strength hand that many players would likely just check-back in this situation.

[@WokeSteve]

@@pot_kivach160 haha.

[@cial67]

Definitely can't check back there

[@timmyp34]

If I had AJ hearts, I might play the same but never call a river jam. Have to fold 2nd pair there.

[@iamjermcs]

"between a TAG and a LAG" lmaoooo

[@grahamplayscards]

well he’s not tight and he’s not a maniac so other than calling him an aggressive pro idk what you want from me bozo 💀

[@iamjermcs]

@@grahamplayscards LMAO maybe don’t look at the comments if you can’t handle it

[@grahamplayscards]

@@iamjermcsHU4rollz whenever u want buddy sick YT channel u got going btw

[@1vailchris]

@@grahamplayscards I don't know if there's a commonly used term that fits. Maybe just "aggro"? Maybe "solid", though that seems to mean different things to different people, but I think usually it means TAG-ish. The thing about this hand is that your V actually played fairly loose-passive post-flop.

[@tylerwestra4759]

Didn’t watch it all yet but fold pre

[@Mr.B_Gambles]

My gut says KJ❤

[@notNaB2024]

Oh boy I can't wait to learn all the useless terminology in poker from the website!

[@sampantiliano]

K/10❤

[@EllieBanks333]

Hmmm so UTG is a good player? But hey, things worked out. Hero won a big pot.

[@1vailchris]

Like the dude in the chat said, a good player might level themselves into calling here with Jx, because hero has so many missed draws.

[@gabrielrockman]

What good hands can the villain have? How often would he play AA, KK, QQ, JJ, QJ, or AQ this way? Would he ever have a set of 6s, 5s, 2s, or a strange Q5 or J5 type two pair? It's so hard for the villain to have anything good here. The hero is repping just QJ or 55 for value, and a missed straight or flush draw as a bluff, so calling with a Jack doesn't seem like that bad of a move when your other card is a non-heart Ace or King, because that's pretty much the top of the villain's range and it blocks a lot of the hero's value.

[@1vailchris]

@@gabrielrockman I don't think V is getting to the river with QQ, JJ or QJ this way, but I could see him having AA, KK or AQ often enough that I'd check back in hero's spot with KQ.

[@pot_kivach160]

@@1vailchris a GOOD player - without proper bluff catcher - calls a river shove based on a suspect that might be a bluff?

[@gabrielrockman]

@@1vailchris I'm not as convinced that the villain would check those hands on the flop, especially since it's four ways and two players in the hand are not as skilled (according to the hero at least), and the last player to act is a more passive player (also according to the hero). AA and KK are hands that don't really like seeing a flop four ways, and I don't think they'd really want to give everyone a free turn card as well. There are some flops where it makes sense to sometimes check AA or KK as a trap, but a flop with two hearts, a Queen, and a Jack, is not one of those flops, and especially against three opponents.

[@kevinorellanaable]

Caller is wrong. That guy isn't a good player

[@rudenurse2561]

👽

[@willh4340]

With a flop that wet, you need to bet big, even overbet slightly!

[@willh4340]

$65 is WAY too small!

[@pedro.gandra]

$65 is almost pot in a multi way flop, it is big bro, you are just being annoying.

[@1vailchris]

Over-bet the flop with just top pair, 2nd kicker, against three opponents, including the PFR? Then what? Give up and check-back on the turn, because your flop over-bet is only getting called by hands that beat yours?

[@willh4340]

@@1vailchris Except obviously not

[@1vailchris]

@@willh4340 So...over-bet flop, get called, and do what on turn? How good can KQ be here when 1 or more opponents calls your flop overbet? What are you trying to rep there? AQ? QJ? QQ? JJ? 55? Only QJ and 55 are remotely credible there, and it's hard to rep 2P or a set when you don't have it. Your flop overbet is getting called by AA / KK / AQ often enough that your over-bet sizing and turn barrel become massively -EV.

[@pot_kivach160]

"The best player in the room" has no clue about: pot odds, position, aggressive play, ...called shove on river and loses to a top pair.

[@mrhumble2937]

Hero call