Early Oscar Predictions 2025 | Best Supporting Actor

[@beautifulmidnight]

Damn. You’re absolutely right about Sing Sing. I remember wanting to see it when the hype was high, and it never came to my city (or many Canadian cities, likely) and I legitimately forgot it existed until now.

[@PowerDiva]

I live in the second largest city in Michigan. It never came here either.

[@TheUnihorn]

After seeing A Real Pain, Kiera Culkin is amazing - but him being campaigned in Supporting instead of Lead is First-Class Category Fraud

[@jonathanvelazquezph.d.2719]

Love that there's a good mix of actors with Academy credentials, i.e. Denzel Washington and Edward Norton, and first-time nominees such as Guy Pearce, Kieran Culkin, and Clarence Maclin. This list could definitely evolve in the coming months.

[@gabrielcastaneda9700]

I think the final 5 are Guy Pearce Edward Norton Clarence macline Denzel Washington Yuri borisov

[@BFA100]

My Early Oscar Predictions for Best Supporting Actor Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) Stanley Tucci (Conclave) Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

[@ffffff1-mmmm]

i have strong swapped in for tucci but otherwise the same four

[@Gunther-68]

I just saw the Brutalist at Viennale festival in Vienna. Guy Pearce is sensational, I would really love to see him winning the Oscar this year!!!

[@jamielee7943]

I can totally admit I’m biased because I’ve loved Guy Pearce since his Neighbours & Priscilla days. He’s one of my favourite actors of all time. His body of work over the years & everything I’ve heard about his tour de force performance in The Brutalist… I hope he sweeps the season!!! I hope it’s his moment. I truly do. 🤞🤞

[@JesseGallaghers]

Regarding distribution for SING SING: What you need to understand is that theatrical distribution is not the “make it/break it” for awards because Academy Members have access to their own streaming portal where they can access the film. They also are invited to special screenings. So they have more access to the film than the general public has.

[@PowerDiva]

This is true, the problem with that though is that when awards are given to a bunch of films that only select industry people get to watch... general audiences see all their favorite films get snubbed or lose for something they have never even heard of before. It adds to this idea that the Oscars are snooty or out of touch with regular people.

[@junkerinhistrunker]

I think an extremely limited theatrical distribution like the one Sing Sing had quiets the buzz around a movie. Yes, members of the academy will get screeners, but what is really driving them to watch it? I'm not saying its chances of nominations or even wins are shot, but i think you downplay the effect a film's theatrical run can have on awards potential.

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

@@PowerDiva And? I don't think anyone cares. It's not the award for the biggest box office hits. Even the Golden Globes had to invent an entire new category "Cimematic and box office achievement" so a blockbuster would be sure to get something aside from technical categories, because otherwise they are not

[@PowerDiva]

@@FrakkinToasterLuvva My point is that even awards shows are still a business and a business doesn't work if no one cares anymore. I'm not saying box office success should equal awards, but when all the top prizes go to films that most people have never seen or heard of before, they stop caring who wins. There should be a healthy balance artistic achievement and commercial success. More specifically in relation to this post... it makes no sense for a good movie, that those who DO see it have loved... to not be marketed or shown to audiences beyond the Hollywood industry itself.

[@Sharpe1502]

It’s about buzz though. Voters only have a finite amount of time to watch movies and they’re going to prioritize the movies that have the buzz.

[@KyloRenRadio]

I'll be interested in your thoughts in The Apprentice. The movie, and Strong's performance, create actual sympathy for Roy Cohn. A Best Supporting Actor nomination would be well deserved.

[@bumblebee898]

To this day I still don't understand how Ed Norton doesn't have an Oscar in his hands. I hope he will get that nomination!!!!

[@Cinemahguy]

Rooting for all the SING SING LOVE!!

[@ad-sd-vids5332]

Clarence maclin’s performance is so real because he is literally playing himself

[@SleepFan771]

1. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) 2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 4. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) 5. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

[@ciri_riannon235]

Edward Norton is gonna win. He's been snubbed for two decades. Besides, the Academy loves biopics.

[@mikedelong1207]

Did nobody love Javier Bardem in Dune 2? I was blown away by his performance.

[@JustusAnkka]

I thought Rebecca Ferguson was amazing.

[@samuelzins5089]

He was awesome but I wouldn't put him in an Oscar race. Butler if anyone from Dune but I'd be surprised

[@piadox]

I loved him and thought his performance was fantastic and integral to the progression of the story and its ultimate success. But genre bias means no one wants to consider it. :(

[@patriciascolafeleppa5542]

Sing Sing is being shown as a special presentation showing at the Savannah film festival at SCAD on Saturday, October 26, 2024, and Coleman Domingo will be receiving an award from SCAD, Savannah College of Art and Design. I am hoping that A24 will rerelease Sing Sing after this film festival because it is unbelievable that it has not been show everywhere at this point.

[@joser1853]

I'm rooting Gladiator 2 is a really good film, just because Denzel's performance is showy and it could make him win the much deserved 3rd Oscar for acting.

[@mattbernabe]

I'd love to see that happen.

[@shettywap]

I'm rooting for the cat from sing sing. He did a great job in that movie.

[@axr7149]

If GLADIATOR 2 really takes off both awards wise and box office wise, I'd especially keep an eye at the BAFTAs. Since Ridley Scott is British, I can expect this film to resonate very strongly there. This could mean that Denzel has a shot in FINALLY getting a nomination there. Let's not forget that Will Smith was similarly ignored until KING RICHARD, which was actually his first ever BAFTA nomination and he of course swept that season before that infamous event.

[@sacosec]

Speaking of overdue, I sure hope Edward Norton wins an Oscar soon.

[@cherylhulting1301]

Yeah. I know most people were upset for Edward's loss in "Primal Fear." But I still feel down about his loss for "American History X."

[@2034916]

Edward Norton should have one for supporting actor for Primal Fear and best actin for Am. History X. What a performance. Unforgettable.\

[@ffffff1-mmmm]

i think the brutalist is going to get the oppenheimer nomination haul, maybe even many of the same wins. i wouldn't be surprised if it is nominated for a ton BTL, esp prod design and score, and wins picture, director, actor (brody), supporting actor (pearce) and score, at a minimum. it is audacious and pretty flashy with some emotional heft. even if it were in the race last year, i think brody and pearce could have taken it over cillian murphy and rdj.

[@singstreetcar5881]

Dennis quaid may come along for the substance if demi moore and magarat qualley get in, and the academy gives the substance a screenplay nomination also.

[@rhythmoriented]

So hilarious, so good! I didn’t see it coming. I think you are right, with it starting with a Golden Globe nomination.

[@joser1853]

Keep dreaming. For acting Demi is the ceiling.

[@megamoviez]

Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress is WAY too stacked

[@huguihugh9803]

Why choose someone unknow just for the race and not someone who workbhard for the lastv45 years like QUAID. HE ALSO SHOULD BE NOMINATED FOR REAGAN!!! BUT WILL NOT FOR BEING REPUBLICAN

[@atticusfinch3845]

Sadly the Academy will not recognize Demi even though she's a fabulous actress and is great in The Substance.

[@patrarus6097]

Thanks for another excellent commentary, Brian. You're the best! I would love to see Edward Norton win the best supporting actor Oscar. He is long overdue, IMO. As always, keep up the great work!

[@sc911man]

So glad you did this one without any guests. I was actually able to watch the whole thing!

[@jensmucha1339]

Haven't seen any of the movies yet, but there are two things I can say for sure: Guy Pearce deserves a Nomination and the Oscars should have a breakthrough performance category like the Globes had for several decades. As for this category in this season, sounds to me like it's gonna be some kind of a lifetime achievement award. In this case my vote would go to Dafoe or Jackson, but Tucci or Pearce would also be fine.

[@tonyg76]

I hope not. It should not be a lifetime achievement award. I know it can be, but it should be the best supporting actor performance of 2024 that wins.

[@SS4Luxray]

@@tonyg76true but unfortunately the acting awards have to have a narrative to help sell the win. Winning on the strength of a performance alone is long gone. Zoe’s narrative is already a “career win”. She’s helped carry 2 major film franchises while being generally well liked by critics and audiences. That’s a strong narrative to run. Ask RDJ, Sandra Bullock, Will Smith and Brad Pitt.

[@Sharpe1502]

I think that Clarence Maclin’s hype around Sing Sing and the fact that he was actually in the program the movie is about is enough of a selling point to get most people to watch the movie even if there’s no hype around the movie. I think he’s going to get in. A story of art turning someone’s life around is way too good for the academy to ignore.

[@patriciascolafeleppa5542]

Sing Sing is the BEST MOVIE of the year and deserves nominations in most categories. The movie was shot on 16 mm film, in 19 days, with a very small crew. The DP, Pat Scola should be nominated for an Oscar for cinematography because the visual look, the lighting, the film choice, all created the naturalistic atmosphere to tell the story. Accompanied with Bryce Dessner's score that sells the beautiful scenes and intimate facial expressions. And kudos to the director, Greg Kwedar, who allowed dialogue to be ad-libbed at times, which created the emotional essence throughout the film that tugs at your heart. The cast deserves best ensemble because 90% of the cast are the formerly incarcerated men that participated in the RTA theater program while in Sing Sing and that authenticity shines. And what can you say about Coleman Domingo.... he deserves the Oscar this year, his performance is perfectly understated, and he allows the other men to shine because this is their story. Well Done!! Also, Clarence Maclin and Paul Raci both deserve best supporting nominations. Their performances tie the strings that pull the film to its brilliance. Best movie overall in a very long time and well worth the emotional journey.

[@megamoviez]

You have my exact same 5. I think Stanley Tucci could surprise but I am more confident in all of those 5.

[@tmxo01]

They had early screeners for Gladiator 2 last night and almost everyone is saying that Denzel has a good shot at winning another Oscar

[@tmxo01]

Time will tell I guess cause the other nominees look pretty strong

[@PowerDiva]

@@tmxo01 Yea it's kind of crazy how strong the Actor categories are this year and the Actress categories seem to be weaker than usual.

[@axr7149]

I think Denzel could finally break through at the BAFTAs this year. Don't forget that Will Smith was similarly ignored by BAFTAs until KING RICHARD, where he fully swept the awards season (this was of course before his infamous slap).

[@LoveShackSarah88]

Wouldnt mund seeing Keiren Culkin win simply because IMO hes always been pretty brilliant overall

[@marrmart7690]

Thank you brian about supporting actors prediction ♥♥♥

[@adityanimmalapudi2880]

Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing Denzel Washington - Gladiator II Guy Pierce - The Brutalist Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice Keiran Culkin - A Real Pain

[@cherylhulting1301]

What does the Tucc have to do to get some love? Stanley Tucci is overdue too.

[@Jerrymorrison]

Great video, I’m excited to see a few you mentioned that I haven’t seen yet.

[@amparonarbona5142]

When will we get the best supporting actress video?

[@andrewharkin9774]

Sometime next week

[@bamabat8435]

I don't often disagree with you, but I think it's almost guaranteed that Austin Butler gets the nod for Dune. We'll see in a couple months.

[@KbatzReviews]

Guy Pearce is OVERDUE! You can do an entire episode on the 4 or 5 times he should have already been nominated if not won!

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

"Crashed and burned at the box office" is 1) a huge exaggeration for a low budget movie funded by independent film companies from Canada, Ireland and Denmark that had to fight to even get screened due to Trump team's threats, not to mention its box office numbers have been growing rather than declining since it premiered, and 2) very irrelevant for Oscars for movies that are not big budget blockbusters. By the same logic, you should write out Sing Sing, who also "crashed and burned at the box office" since its wide release in August and has only made 3 million, so just double of what The Apprentice made in its first weekend... before Donald Trump decided to give it some free promo by attacking it personally on social media. CODA made 2 million in its entire run even after winning Best Picture. Jessica Chastain won an Oscar for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, which made 3.8 million in its entire run Andrea Riseborough was nominated for To Leslie, which made a total of 400 thousand and didn't even had any studio support. The Irishman was a streaming movie that got 8 million total on a 200 million budget

[@lukascurau6004]

I've watched a small movie at the Zurich Film Festival two weeks ago, called La cocina. My favorite movie of the year so far and i would nominate Raúl Briones for his role in that one. I hope this Movie will get a little bit more attention. Rooney Mara is also fabulous in it❤

[@sailingsam3815]

Emilia Prez and Anora are outstanding!!😅

[@poihpioakarp8845]

My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 25.10.24): 23. Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck) 22. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration) 21. Josh O'Connor (Challengers) 20. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two) 19. Harris Dickinson (Blitz) 18. John Lithgow (Conclave) 17. Yuriy Borisov (Anora) 16. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2) 15. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two) 14. Drew Starkey (Queer) 13. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) 12. Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside) 11. Harris Dickinson (Babygirl) 10. John Magaro (September 5) 9. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5) 8. Mark Eydelsteyn (Anora) 7. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 6. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) 4. Guy Pearçe (The Brutalist) 3. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) 2. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain) 1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!

[@Cinemahguy]

That top 5 would be awesome honestly.

[@diegoleonelreyes]

Whats your opinion on Michael Cera brian

[@gairickdam18]

Can you explain why Leo dicaprio not nominated for killers of the flower moon and shutter Island and catch me if you can and why de niro not for the king of comedy and the irishman and Brad Pitt for se7en and fight club?

[@nicolefitzgerald2022]

i’ve always loved Guy Pearce Memento The Time Machine

[@Milosh111]

A Complete Unknown could be this year's Nyad (male version)...

[@ZachCook1397]

For Dafoe it would be funny for him to get in for Nosferatu supporting since he got snubbed for The Lighthouse supporting, another Eggers movie, a few years ago

[@LeeBeeDeeTree51]

The industry buzz is the Gladiator II is actually good and should be a hit with both audiences and critics.

[@piadox]

I have most of the same names, but with Jeremy Strong instead of Denzel, even though from the trailers alone you can tell Denzel is going to be a highlight, even if the movie is not good or just ok.

[@leightonbate7516]

They have been near to awarding Denzel a 3rd for awhile so if he's a scene stealer it's between him and Culkin,Pearce will be a critics fave,Norton is a question mark until reveiws come in,Peter Sarsgaard is also overdue and would be a great nominee after such a brilliant diverse career,I can't see Sing Sing happening once the Christmas big guns come out.

[@gabrielcastaneda9700]

I think mark is winning breakout at Gotham and indie spirit for anora

[@cassellsc]

Jeremy Strong is fantastic in The Apprentice as Roy Cohn and really deserves a nomination. In one of the trailers for Gladiator 2, Denzel's vocal work was all over the place--enough to be mocked by KZbin commentators, so I'm really beginning to wonder about his performance.

[@dallastexas5653]

All this hype behind Denzel feels like paid for promotions.

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

@@cassellsc I also noticed very weird pauses he was making in the Gladiator 2 trailer, almost Shatner--like.

[@albalbuena6478]

JK Simmons was great as Milton Berle in SATURDAY NIGHT. I am surprised that he wasn’t mentioned.

[@krighabandalo]

Denis Quaid - The Substance

[@Jerrymorrison]

My number one in this category (so far), and by a longshot is Nicolas Cage for Longlegs🖤🖤🖤

[@theprime6439]

I wish they’d consider him

[@elduderino7507]

Too bad the Academy doesnt like horror. The nomination would be well deserved.

[@jlofty281]

I would love an Adam Pearson nomination for A Different Man but I know that’s never gonna happen

[@raj2tennis]

Elliott Heffernan needs to be on that list. For his first film. This was some very good work. Just remember Tatum and Anna. they were young and did not carry as much of film as Elliot did.

[@coreythomas1272]

I think it will be Yura Borisov, not Mark Eydelshteyn, in the Stanley Tucci slot.

[@sailingsam3815]

Remarkable life of Ibelin for documentary😊

[@kyubidzns]

Yura borisov missing

[@-Jimini-]

Jeremy

[@ivanmendoza514]

How come there isn’t a specific category for best villain / antagonist?

[@rocky-o]

early prediction... demi moore for best actress...

[@coryfunk2307]

I'm predicting this year will be 4 actors in all different films.

[@LCLoyal]

I am a Timothée Chalamet fanatic but the Oscar worthy performance in Dune Part 2 is Austin Butler who should win Best Supporting Actor.

[@rocky-o]

culkin is the han solo to jessie's luke skywalker...

[@bpure2560]

Denzel getting rave reviews for Gladiator II. A lot of reviews saying it's the movie of the year.

[@davedavis8786]

Maclin is real and raw because he's playing himself.

[@Jerrymorrison]

I love CHALLENGERS, it blew me away, but I agree…I am hoping it at least gets acknowledged in the technical categories.

[@cherylhulting1301]

My heart hurts that we haven't gotten the high profile project for Josh O'Connor yet. I love him.

[@jaguarkaboom8967]

brutalist is a snooze

[@SHALAt22]

Tell us what's these films are about while you're at it.

[@singstreetcar5881]

I always confuse guy peirce with Dominic west.

[@jaguarkaboom8967]

adrian brody is overhyped.

[@swankhood]

Stop predicting nominations and winners when you haven't EVEN SEEN THE MOVIE, Example:Lady Gaga, horrible performance Ina bad movie yet you were saying she would be nominated, but WITHOUT EVEN SEEING THE DAMN MOVIE

[@Tricki_Woo]

I love Stanley Tucci in “Conclave”. I thought he was phenomenal.

[@beautifulmidnight]

The Tucc’ is always phenomenal. You could put him in the friggin’ live action Paw Patrol movie (so sorry for putting that idea into the universe) and I’d be raving about his performance as the cop who is also a dog.

[@cherylhulting1301]

The Tucc is so overdue.

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

My current predictions, after seeing the raves the press are doing for Gladiator 2 and Denzel specifically - in alphabetical order: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) Denzel Washington (Gladiator 2)

[@Brandon_4272]

thank youuuu someone who understands Jeremy Strong needs a nom

[@robertmichel4063]

I don't know, man, I have a feeling Gladiator II will be a real piece of cow dung. Much as I like Denzel Washington as a performer, if that movie is a stinker like Napoleon, he isn't getting in.

[@bingovegas4867]

WHY do you rattle on and on??? Get to the point.

[@okay5045]

Sing Sing was not a great movie it was okay.

[@nymet2454]

I'm happy "The Apprentice crashed and burned at the box office". I'm rooting for Dennis Quaid The Substance in Best Supporting Actor.

[@billyhessler4640]

the apprentice is an amazing movie! Just doesn't quite have an audience who wants to see it

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

@@billyhessler4640 it does now thanks to Trump attacking it and giving it free promo. Very nice of him 😂

[@signatureroles]

Denzel Washington based on the reviews and response today across the board : Denzel is winning his third Oscar.

[@huguihugh9803]

Why The Academy and bets choose now flops that are also bad films? No more Chastain no more woke films wirh zero audience hype

[@singstreetcar5881]

I don't believe the positive first reactions to gladiator 2. That film looks bad. Denzel has an American assent in ancient rome

[@jaidynr87]

I seriously doubt denzels accent will cause him not to be nominated. Russell Crowe won the Oscar for the first gladiator and he was speaking with an English accent in Ancient Rome. If we’re really being sticklers about accent accuracy and voices, they should be straight up speaking Latin instead of English

[@theprime6439]

I’m saying Jeremy Strong for the apprentice

[@jaap3520]

what kind of accent do you think he should've done?

[@joser1853]

So, he should have had a British accent playing a roman character? Before posting use your brain.

[@FrakkinToasterLuvva]

@@singstreetcar5881 It makes absolutely no difference which accent he has in a movie about Ancient Rome. None of them are "authentic" or ancient. Nor is the English language they are speaking. I was however not impressed by his vocal delivery in the trailer, like making pauses in weird places.

[@huguihugh9803]

Sing sing is a flop.not another Tammy Lee Chastain win

[@singstreetcar5881]

Including sing sing in any of ur predictions means u don't have a mind of ur own. Ur following other people's predictions.

[@shettywap]

It was a really good movie with some really good performances. I wouldnt be surprised at any nominations.