Is Nvidia in Trouble? + Government Investment Accounts For Kids - ft. Brad Gerstner | Prof G Markets

[@internetshaquille]

That BLT tip is 100% correct

[@CPGurchGurch-ki8xw]

I love this! The take-away from today's podcast. Thanks for making my day 😊 💜

[@ausgra17]

BLT is a buy!!!

[@AdamLevine759]

No. AI stocks will dominate 2024 and why I prefer NVIDIA is that they are better placed to maintain long term growth potential, and provide a platform for other AI companies. I know someone who has made more than 200% from NVIDIA.

[@ValeriePheasant]

Investing is the key. So you need to earn enough to save enough to invest enough to stay ahead of inflation and later live on interest, while always keeping the principle growing faster than inflation.

[@EmpressDelivery]

Tesla has FSD, robotaxi and bots that will use AI - buy the dip!

[@KeanuReevesf]

I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about 200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost 673k

[@TomGmaan]

Actually, I’ve actually been looking into that lately, the news I've been seeing in the market hasn't been so encouraging honestly. If you don't mind me asking who's the person guiding you?

[@KeanuReevesf]

Melissa Elise Robinson is the licensed advlsor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.

[@marywimmer5018]

Ed’s grandfather sounds like he was quite the man… condolences.

[@jakebest5601]

opening joke today was top tier

[@chockshoway]

Sorry for your loss Ed! Really respect the the vulnerable masculinity so often demonstrated on this show.

[@markmui]

The "Invest America" segment should be its own video for easier virality.

[@moniquemichelle7295]

Yes! Definitely.

[@jjsjohnson1]

Seriously, Prog G team, carve that out for general consumption.

[@Teflon916]

It will never pass because nobody makes money. It needs to be a government run program where custodians can take a nice 2% fee from every account for the purpose of funding lawmakers bonuses. Also an option to increase said percent in the future.

[@Kevin-yh9yt]

What a pair....they made Ed's Grandad's passing both moving and funny. The chemistry is what keeps this blog so rewarding.

[@kapdolkim1914]

My kids have a ROTH and will open a regular broker account for savings greater than what can be put in ROTH. Would be great for the mass population to be in the market. Brad is the right guy at the right time.

[@cindyhayslette306]

What broker do you use for their acct? I’m gonna start one for mine.

[@patienceisalpha]

The grifters encourage stock investment for newborns (which I think is a good idea), but weirdly enough we never hear about hedge fund managers to encourage affordable preK child care. What these guys need is more exit liquidity. Nothing prevents a parent from opening a brokerage account in the name of a kid

[@creativeslink]

Can’t agree enough!

[@duskrider1724]

Seems like meaningful antitrust enforcement might do more for workers and income inequality then just adding baby investors to the S&P 500

[@grukoin2789]

This is such a random argument to make. Also "Nothing prevents a parent from opening a brokerage account in the name of their kid" - Poverty comes to mind. Also lack of education

[@patienceisalpha]

@@grukoin2789 why would an investment account not accessible for 20 years by a kid be the solution to parental poverty? What would justify the tax payer footing the bill for this? Why would it be fair?

[@raajpagare]

This Brad guy is a top rated blood sucker who will happily throw out a group of single mother or aging employees out of a job if that will help increase the stock by 1%. He knows that there will be recokening for people like him from public so he is doing this thing to make them all tiny stockholders so him and his buddy’s can have liquidity and get prople behind him when they screw other people. These guys want to take your job one way or another so that they can take away for themselves the tiny value you are getting to feed your family. Be very careful of these guys

[@jerdonhelgeson6961]

Am I misunderstanding Brad Gerstner saying people in disadvantaged communities are more likely to save more once they have an account...? Isn't that obvious? Why else would they have an account other than to save? People with pools in their backyard are much more likely to swim. Yeah that's what the pool is for??

[@KK-pm7ud]

The pool is so your grandkids will come over even if you don't like to swim.

[@gassman55]

Many families do this as noted in various posts. They start 529s and open brokerage accounts. We have seen that the post pension era wasn’t a great success for many. The one idea I likes about the att birth contribution for everyone is that you can trade it or take it out. (Distribution over each decade) I would love to hear more details and counter arguments. A wealthier future helps everyone. Retirement accounts are great but require interest, discipline and knowledge. Good job Brad!!

[@sloth_in_socks]

Counter argument: helicopter money results in inflation and doesn't benefit anyone except the people that already own stock

[@abbottmd]

i love the cautious approach when seeing everything seem so easy. I very much agree.

[@indianajones3315]

Ed, condolences. Your graddad clearly helped a lot of people along his way, and it’s great that you recognize this and chose to share a little bit of him with us. I think I saw you in Small World once.

[@enknaran]

"what are criticism of your plan that you've heard?" "Let me go off on a tangent... Everyone loves it"

[@jeffossola668]

B2B is one of my favorites, glad to see Brad out and about

[@SamHoustonSF]

Glad you had Brad on!!

[@beth-eileenwalker8579]

Gentlemen, Amazing podcast. Ed, condolences on your loss. One of the best episodes.

[@BI-sd3sw]

Prof G, Ed: the 122% yoy for NVDA revenue. Let me give you quarterly growth: 88%, 34%, 22%, 18%, 15%. This is a slowdown in growth, I think that would have been a more interesting discussion (don’t just eat the headline the company gives you)

[@Make-A-Mil]

RIP your granddad, that recipe made me laugh haha

[@KK-pm7ud]

I'm sorry for you loss Ed. My deepest condolences.

[@brendanreid8241]

Brad G is such a wealth of knowledge, great guest gentleman.

[@amangine]

One thing I don't understand, why does everyone keep saying nvda is overvalued when their P/E is ~50 but AMD is ~165?

[@ThatcherMichelsen]

Great show great guest. Love the #investamerica idea. Why did you not put a link to the website in description?

[@peteydyer]

Can someone explain to me how the Invest in America plan wouldn’t be highly inflationary?

[@timcameron-kitchen8070]

Whilst also adding unprecedented volatility

[@lemosley01]

Shhhh...Modern monetary theory says you can just print print print with no side effects like inflation. Ignore the last 3 years of inflation. It was just bad luck. While the plan sounds great in theory, I'm not sure I can trust that the gov't will just 'get out of the way' - this will become just another tool in the politican bag to influence voters.

[@zooq-ai]

What? Inflation happens when people spend the money. This piddly $3B which is 0.0001% of the economy sitting in savings accounts does nothing. Geez. People simply don't get economics or scale

[@grukoin2789]

​@@zooq-ai you could've said the same thing without being a dick. That said, you're right

[@intothemoat]

@@zooq-ai yes ,but what happens when the first cohort hit that age when they can cash out?

[@mikefunderburk7965]

What a perfect tribute, so well said Ed. Sorry for your loss.

[@sdk58]

Scott, (or someone) can you provide a link that the study that you quoted @6:33?

[@davidseek]

RIP Ed’s Grandpa. My goal to have my relatives talk about me remotely like that, one day. I became a dad to a boy 11 weeks ago. My goal to have him be proud.

[@jamespardue3055]

When things are all pretty good, like right now, my life experience (67 years old) has taught me to be looking over my shoulder and expecting the worst. I think that's a widespread reaction, isn't it?

[@stevechance150]

Sounds like paranoia.

[@indianajones3315]

@@stevechance150Guessing you’re much younger than 67.

[@JasonPage-p6t]

In Australia dividends and franking credits make it difficult to invest in kids, and earnings above $420 per year get heavily taxed. This can be averted by investing in US based ETF as they have lower dividends.

[@william53]

Great hearing from Brad!!!

[@tombesson7293]

It's nice to see alternative role models that are positive.

[@anthonymaduska5483]

The Invest America idea is extraordinary!

[@user-nc9pc3gr4c]

Scott, you are wrong that only 3 companies are investing in NVIDIA. Those companies represent 1000's of companies that they are buying them for. It will be 10 years before all of their (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) customers are done coming into the fold. It is not like they are going to stop when 99% of their (Microsoft, Google, Amazon) customers have not migrated to AI applications.

[@ramahsakul6850]

I'd be interested to know what fund managers are going to do regarding fees on these funds. Will there be an open competition to bid for the lowest fees

[@pathologicaldoubt]

The invest America idea is great

[@BeitBridg]

Sounds like Obama care. Why get the government involved, Sound like someone wants to prop up the S&P 500

[@waynecsmith5145]

Wonderful tribute to his grandfather…

[@dangerduguid]

Can we have an entire episode about BLTs?

[@StevenS.-up2pp]

I'd love to see the AllinPOD and ProfG actually get along and discuss things together FYI, I think it would be healing if the two could show that they get along.

[@reactor4]

the car loan issue maybe because many people over paid during covid.

[@cozmocrum8691]

On the way to the store for BLTs tonight

[@markmcgrath5487]

Cracking guest!

[@christopherharvey7755]

In the UK they introduce a saving scheme for children, an ISA for children, money they couldn't touch until they were 18. As it is now a contribution up to £9000 per year of tax free savings. I don't think it really works, it's probably only the educated rich that make use of it.

[@aconsideredmoment]

Prof G, please address the pros of large companies for innovation and growth including supporting growth of small companies. NVIDIA innovates and is driving AI. Similar to other tech companies, the market is dominated by 1-2 major competitors and the percentages shift. We can allow such companies to drive our economy and focus on supporting growth or we can regulate and slow growth. The result of hyper-regulation in the EU has been to kill growth. China leads in EVs. We had the opportunity and politics supported Big ICE. In Europe, Volkswagen has been reduced to cheating, entrenched culture pushing out visionary leaders, and now factories closing while the Germans find any and every reason to protest the TSLA factory. Without supporting growth, we will be supporting foreign war and domestic needs from deficits. Also, it is forgotten how many small companies and jobs support every large company. A rising tide lifts all ships. No amount of row boats prevents a large ship from going under and taking all the row boats with it.

[@christianromero9596]

How far away are we from the mag7 becoming a bank? I mean, if there is a " nation sate investing" that's basically a bank, right?

[@michaelgardner5832]

Or...the Mag7 TELLING the Federal Reserve when/how much to change rates?

[@B_M]

Amazing ideas.

[@amatuer2]

NVDA is a long term hold.

[@ghostpos]

Don't always agree with Brad and often don't learn much from his thoughts BUT I do like Invest America (a lot).

[@Bryanbkk]

Invest America - sometimes a simple idea is the best.

[@randyklepetko6394]

Your call on AI is spot on. We are in a investment AI bubble and the investors are looking for some profits from the AI companies. If they aren't profitable, the high end GPU's turn into surplus. Today's market is predicting this.

[@aquicktake]

"Did he go to catholic school?" ROFLMAO

[@acrc2479]

Did Brad say “it was google’s moral sin to let CharGPT become a VERB”?

[@sirus312]

NVDA has Compute, Networking but no storage solutions. IMO they might try to buy PSTG. But PSTG on their own will grow into a massive business. They won the hardware/software stack like NVDA did for GPU. 'Coz' the founder is a visionary.

[@nellaikswokub139]

hasn't Ric Edelman been talking about this initially government funded custodial account idea for some time now?

[@Skillest]

When a real business builder talks to commentators

[@bbbbbbbbbbbbbb392]

Shoe shiner moment with Nvidia, cant go anywhere without hearing about it

[@ml2k8]

Lmao. Clearly each has his own agenda. Just Pump up bubbles and dump is more reality.

[@Crux69]

Anthropic's Claude 3.5 is currently the best at coding, beating GPT in measures and in most engineers minds.

[@ShadLambert]

Agree that Athropic and Llama aren't gonna let chatGPT take the whole game. I find myself using chatbot arena which compares answers between services for you, I keep finding myself preferring Claude/Anthropic while the bland advertiser/legal bias on Gemini makes it almost useless.

[@halojones1843]

I suggest perhaps looking at the Australian Superannuation system.

[@georgewood00]

Gov investment accounts aren’t new, Britain did it in the early 2000’s. Fee’s ate up most of the compounding which inevitably would also happen to most poor Americans

[@Larry_B_Dev]

thanks for the BLT recipe my condolences Ed

[@projectvalerie]

This interview underscores the monopoly VC capital has created for themselves. It's not just the tech companies guzzling at each other's profits, it's the capital incest between the "tech bros" and their VC buddies. The money is not being spread outside this elite club - the 1% of the 1%. Brad mentioning that financial investment could be a birth right today for everyone to grow wealth - this method will not create wealth for generations. This is simply a strategy for VCs to punt the problem to the next generation, while their own investments grow exponentially in the interim. Brad delivers a pathetic fairytale rather than propose thoughtful action to redistribute wealth; only further veiling opportunity for anyone outside the club to gain AI wealth.

[@chiragmehta8212]

What’s your solution? I am cynical but sounds a decent idea. I wish my parents or someone would have explained the investment culture. I didn’t start till forty’s. I could have invested when I was young and be rich. Back when I was young I didn’t understand investment

[@Skillest]

In what world does it take 16 mins to get bg into the conversation?

[@Masterdebater-q5c]

About GD time Scott and Ed! Sat down for my typical Tuesday lunch, went on youtube ready for Prof G-Unit and nothing!

[@Masterdebater-q5c]

Alright after watching further now I feel bad for my message above, my condolences for your grandfather Ed

[@sherribarman915]

I’d love the whole BLT recipe!! Please 🥰😍😘

[@johnralph3578]

Do you not remember when Ashwath said the company needs to grow into an entire new market?

[@BodyByBenSLC]

Economist Mark Blyth has been talking about programs like invest America for a few years. I hope it catches on.

[@GoogleHerouxMA]

NVDA may see ATH this year, as well as $75 next year, so, we have to keep calm here.

[@ehlava]

yeah ed, yur gonna have to do a side vid of making the blt with all the words of granpaps incorporated.

[@andrewhart6200]

Am I slow or has the market been overeager for AI and doesn't it seem like businesses like Ebay/Amazon have over-corrected in too greedy of a fashion and then the whole thing is built around greed rather than what the Tech can do and IF it works at all yet!? It doesn't seem like it works well at this point - it's great if tech consultants can use it but can everyone? I don't see that being the case when the average person isn't tech savy to begin with!

[@stevechance150]

No no no, AI's promise isn't in serving you. The promise of AI is in replacing you. Do you work in a Call Center? AI is going to replace ALL the Tier 1 support employees. Are you a programmer? AI is going to replace you. Eventually, companies will be just two employees; the CEO and his assistant who does ALL the work and interacts with the AI. AI is about cutting labor to near zero. AI is not about serving middle aged people.

[@TommySaucierPlourde0]

@@stevechance150 Watch out, those big language model are not AI. LLM won't be replacing anyone because it create nothing new. Someone using LLM will be replacing you. Appart of that if no one is working anymore how are we going to buy stuff. Capitalism system need people to have cash and use it. No work = no cash.

[@paulcody8973]

No single company (NVDA) should affect everybody’s pension funds, retirement accounts, 401k’s, IRA’s. Everybody does have options outside of long exposure to S&P 500 and Nasdaq index products. They’re choosing to let that scenario affect them…. Full disclosure, I’m short Nasdaq and S&P… let it burn 🔥 😅

[@zephyrus001]

"I would go running from the tech company that wasn't investing in the AI future"...oh...hey, I didn't see you there Intel...

[@sdl2320]

Perhaps US gov’t doesn’t want younger population to have investment income because it’s taxed at lower rates and could result in them retiring earlier or not maximizing their working years? It could lead to lower tax funds and “productivity” for America as a whole? Not saying it’s a bad thing, but lots of unintended consequences 🤔

[@Tesfas]

Brad’s “Invest America” plan has good intentions but in practice I see it as another mechanism of wealth transfer from US tax payers to money mgmt firms and hedge funds via fees & markets. I think reduction in government spending, productivity increase and affordable education access would be far more effective in helping all Americans prosper.

[@autohelix]

No your idea sounds like work till you drop. His idea is much better.

[@Tesfas]

@@autohelix I just think the funds won't mean much as long as government continues to print and spend because our spending power will be depleted. Furthermore if you look at how markets are structured the scale is titled in favor of the big players (e.g. Blackrock, JPM, Fidelity, & etc).

[@autohelix]

@@Tesfas As someone who has been a long-term investors that is just simply nonsense. Sorry that you don't have the ability to comprehend compounding growth. The fact that you think spending a whopping 3.7 billion dollars a year is going to have any negative effect is ridiculous. When one particular stock moves over 200 billion dollars in market cap in one day.

[@ethanb4058]

“We need more capitalism and free markets!” “But those parents could spend that money on anything!”

[@Noodles8ify]

Wouldn’t want the government doing it- but I agree overall

[@neversimon]

Invest America sounds like give the top 500 companies the gold, silver, and bronze. It's basically giving the haves a ton of public money. Doing this without taxing them means you kill the bottom 99% of company innovation among other issues.

[@PaddyLamont]

This is not really true. The S&P 500 total market cap is 45.84 trillion dollars. This suggests investing 3.7 billion dollars in those companies each year, or 0.008% of the market cap of those companies.

[@musiccreation1198]

Investment is not coming from a small number of companies... those 4 companies represent an aggregate of ALL OF THEIR CLOUD CLIENTS.

[@dprestons0318]

On the question of a potential tech monolith: "I have been in silicon valley for over twenty years. Strategic investment happens all of the time." That's perfect. The only way you would see this stuff as simply a matter of strategy investment is if you had been in Silicon Valley over twenty years. Guess it does something to you. Wow! Yes, there are trees, my friend, but there is also a forest. Simply classifying this under the banner of "strategic investment" says nothing about the character of what is going on. I do strategic investment. Who the hell doesn't? Do non-strategic investments even exist? Again, I am not sure telling me that "strategic investment happen everytime" is a meaningul statement in any way. Seems like meaningless tautology. Sorry, this comment really set me off. I was like, "What the hell does even mean?" He seems like a real smart guy and made some good points.

[@moniquemichelle7295]

Or keep investing in the S&P 500 🔥

[@rhiannonskyeole]

Will Prof G mention 'the stock markets crash'? (Imminent)😂🎉🎉🎉

[@rhiannonskyeole]

NVDA @ 141 now 106 minus 1/3 of T.V. = -1.1 trillion of 3.2 trillion T.V. (look it up)🎉🎉🎉😮

[@davidhendricks1331]

Great goodbye to your grandfather. I ❤️ the recipe

[@drakeblessum3466]

Smart guy. I hope Invest America works. He has his head up Nvidia ass a bit much. But he is rich because of the bet!

[@marjorietench3925]

They teach yoga at schools and not personal finance! Start there.

[@ElmerGLue]

00:37:00 This just sounds like another form of propping up the markets through public dollars. One issue with retail investors is that they blindly invest which manipulates markets as to what is actually a healthy company. Now you want to give $1000 to all companies through children and they won’t be able to trade it themselves but some entity will do it? Bitcoin gets judged for being just this, increasing the value just cause more are involved in the process regardless of the actual value of the coin. I’m not saying it isn’t a great idea to get kids market accounts, I don’t think it should be controlled so that we prop up markets and definitely not with public dollars. Companies should donate it for some tax break, they break even, no money is directly exchanged and it is some generic fund that all kids have access to for advancement: basic housing for 4 years, academics or trade schools, basic lessons on business, basic stipend to eat, now you force them to work. kids which are wealthy or extremely smart can seek outside institutions and scholarships but this instead covers most Americans while lifting “all boats” by raising the minimum standard for the average American.

[@user-nc9pc3gr4c]

XAI has the biggest AI GPU cluster than anyone in the world. They have all the data they need to train, and they have 6 companies that are going to use it. It is going to pass everyone up in no time.

[@grukoin2789]

It's not the kitchen or ingredients, it's the cook

[@user-nc9pc3gr4c]

@@grukoin2789 Elon has all the best talent in the world. And now he has the best kitchen and ingredients.

[@AZHankG]

The biggest winners from the government investing a lot of money in the S&P 500 are people who already have money in the S&P 500 like Brad Gerstner (and full disclosure me). That is why I am skeptical. I know he pushed back about a Social Security replacement but this is the same reason why the gov't investing the Social Security Trust Fund in the market was a bad idea when it was a popular idea in the 90's.

[@Make-A-Mil]

if the government gives each child $1k in the SP500... wouldn't that create a huge, perpetual bubble though? I champion the spirit but doubt the efficacy of that particular policy. An investment account ok. But where is the $1k per baby going to come from? How are you going to deal with people who have more children to game the system? Or use fraud or child trafficking to defraud the system? And there are more questions you could ask about how realistic that policy is, too.

[@autohelix]

No because it's a extremely small amount of money for the stock market. How are they going to game the system they can't touch the money. Its way less money than the child tax credit. Why would people not have more kids to game the system on that. Where they actually have access to the money. Jesus man it's not that complicated.

[@Make-A-Mil]

@@autohelix bit touchy? :) chill. $1k per child is not an extremely small amount if you have millions of children to fund. and people WILL reproduce at faster rates if you give them direct financial incentives to do so, whether you restrict those accounts or not. fraud will find a way, like dinosaurs. it's also inconsistent to say the account "is yours" and that's one of the benefits- it belongs to you the average person- but to then restrict access or put capital constraints or asset constraints or whatever the plan is... in tiers at ages 20, 30, 40 as suggested... also creates problems... this is a very noble idea. i support it. the reality is it's a legislative nightmare that might create more damage than it solves. my opinion take it or leave it

[@DividendFactory]

Hot take : Nvidia will eventually make more and more money from renting its hardware via its own datacenters, i.e. making more and more money via its own software stack.

[@Marsubleu]

Only the surviving optimists are right...

[@LuckyHeidi777]

Antidote: remedy Anecdote: a short narrative (At 35:52)

[@Joey-fs7ro]

If the bottom 99 % of the US population don't get a level playing field...the next party at the capitol is going to make the first one look like tourists on a picnic... history repeats throughout history. 😊 The writing is on the wall, but the big money keeps sucking everyone dry. Jus sayin. Hopefully things get straightened out and we all can work together for our country.

[@projectvalerie]

They do keep sucking everyone dry. How do we stop them?

[@duluthdjs2588]

You only toast 1/2 of the top piece of bread. He was missing out on maximum crisp.

[@carlthompson8914]

AI is nothing more than the most recent google doodle.

[@aamirfarooq1260]

RIP NVDA u had a good run made Doritos chips or somethin

[@christianromero9596]

There is already a program we're you. SS# is used as an account. It's social security. This is a way to get rid of SS or to Privatize SS the GOP ran on this kinda of idea in the 90's.

[@PaddyLamont]

SS does not invest in the markets. It requires new contributions to pay for old recipients. They are suggesting an investment account that will actually invest money in stocks. Very different.

[@christianromero9596]

@@PaddyLamont You are totally correct.

[@jodylowe8476]

The fact that a lot of the major tec firms are in an incestuous relationships regarding AI should be a huge red flag. Once one firm goes down, all will and so will your retirement fund. Greed is a motherfucker.

[@stevewhite4231]

AI + Robotics....Holy Moley

[@joaomiranda2284]

Mr. Walter White and Jessie Pinkman

[@hayekianman]

silly obsession with monopolies. 3 or 4 yrs ago , galloway was all about amazon this, amazon that - the value of fell as much as the value of whole foods on its acquisition. and what of it today? it amounts to a hill of beans. bezos left to fly his spacecraft and canoodle with his lover and amazon is now just a middle of the pack silicon valley co, desperately looking to catch up in the AI mania. scott needs to learn that competition is a hardy weed and not a delicate flower. complacence is common among the managerial class

[@yamuiemata]

The government will also collect massive tax bills off these accounts when the kids decide to cash in 😅

[@modernfiction8474]

You realize we could just make it such that that doesn't happen with these particular accounts?

[@projectvalerie]

Or the government could collect taxes TODAY off of everyone that gets a slice TODAY. Wealth distribution means more cash flow for everyone, including the government.