Can Milei’s New Budget Revive Argentina’s Economy?

[@TLDRnewsGLOBAL]

CORRECTION: At 6:30, we (embarrassingly) claim that a 4% monthly inflation rate translates to an annual inflation rate of 160%. This is incorrect - it actually translates to an annual rate of 60% (we forgot to subtract 1 when we did the maths). Apologies for this sloppy error, and we hope you nonetheless enjoyed the video!

[@dievas2259]

lock in bruh

[@andaddplus]

just like legacy media spreading fake news

[@daniel_rossy_explica]

a 160% annual inflation rate would be quite "normal" here though, anyway.

[@sobserver]

so embarrassing....

[@archyarchfiendx2938]

You’re a far left rag

[@EmilJunker]

A 4% monthly inflation rate translates to a yearly inflation of 1.04^12 which is about 1.6, meaning 60% inflation, not 160% like you stated in the video! So Milei's target of 18% YoY inflation actually isn't copletely unrealistic (but probably still way too optimistic)

[@luistbom]

Yeah that was a very glaring flaw for a channel that usually gets things right. Hopefully they'll correct it

[@ruekurei88]

@@luistbom "that usually gets things right" Don't know about 'usually'. I make it a habit of checking the comments sections for stuff like this in TLDR videos.

[@vvventure]

is not that crazy, it will mean like a 2-3% monthly inflation, core inflation is already travelling at that. Is pretty obvious that he will make it, his "0 emission" policies are being really agressive on that issue (there is still inflation because of subsidies cuts that means services prices increases and also interest rates cuts that means pesos deposits are not renewing their positions and goes back to the economy)

[@meretricioussimp7759]

60 and 160 are the same, you just add on and multiply the other. Inflation is 60% meaning the valuer of the goods is 160% the ones of the previousyear

[@atwarroyal8770]

@@meretricioussimp7759 Take a deep breath and analyze you math, and re- listen to exact words said in video. You will get it right I hope.

[@Magdalena-u7l]

We Are in Unchartered Financial Waters! every day we encounter challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.

[@ChengHao03]

Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.

[@Friedrich-j3i]

Could you possibly recommend a CFA you've consulted with?

[@Friedrich-j3i]

Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.

[@povilasmatusevicius]

4% monthly inflation is 60% yearly inflation, not 160%.

[@Zenzen-jw9rr]

Need more likes under this post. TLDR keep making embarrassing mistakes from video to video. Some people may notice, but majority will be misled

[@tweda4]

​@@Zenzen-jw9rryeah, they really need to work on their proof reading. They seem to get at least one number (if not multiple) wrong in every video.

[@dancahill9585]

@@ArnabSaha-pm8id No, he is right. The exponentiation of 4% ends up with 60% over the course of a year. That's 4% on the month, and then 4% on the increased prices for the next month, etc. So it takes the new bases into account. If he didn't take the new base into account the rate would be 12*4% or 48%. The 60% includes the compounding.

[@povilasmatusevicius]

@@ArnabSaha-pm8id That's incorrect. If I would keep it same, it would be 48% (12 * 4). You can google this, just type in "1,04^12"

[@paxundpeace9970]

Still far to high anyway.

[@weird_autumn42]

good luck to everybody in argentina

[@Yeppo_]

Come try the new Argentian Exclusive at mcdonalds: The McWeAreFucked! Now with extra healthcare cuts, corruption and deficits.

[@dltn42]

The elderly 70+ is being forced to work to pay for medications... they need more than good luck. I'm Brazilian and I'm totally astonished how things are deteriorating there. I visited Argentine in 2022., the situation was bad then, but people had means to live... these people don't deserve to treated like dogs in the end of their lives now 😓

[@Mhaliik]

But we don't have more than good luck, we can't go back to printing money to solve problems from the present​, if we do we are screwing future generations with more inflation. We need to fix decades of poor resource management and reduce this massive and inefficient state that costs crazy amounts of money that could go to the elderly, health, education and defense @@dltn42

[@bababababababa6124]

Except Pessi

[@sugarsama7716]

@@dltn42 Bullshit, there were no cuts in medication coverage

[@elpanchomayonesa8069]

people outside of argentina talk about the cuts as if 60% of the population being below the poverty line wasn't a big thing

[@gustavodutra2817]

Left-wing policies have placed 60% of the population below the poverty line

[@facumod1932]

Like if 60 percent of population wanst in poverty already

[@elpanchomayonesa8069]

@@facumod1932 20% before Macri came to presidency, 40% before Milei came to presidency, graphics and statistics exist lil bro, i recommend you check them out before opening your mouth

[@facumod1932]

@@elpanchomayonesa8069 Sooo literally the last goverment aumented it 40 percent yet ypu complain about it growing 20%? And even while obviously poverty scales so if it was 40 before he came in obviously nexts months it would keep increasing?!

[@sissel02]

@@elpanchomayonesa8069 "b-but muh graphics" tell me you're new to politics without telling me you're new to politics

[@jonobidonofanas3677]

It would have been strange if Milei would have fixed Argentina in a few months when the country has been struggling for decades. Only time will tell if Milei can fix the country

[@juancarlosalonso5664]

Fix it? He’s collapsing the economy, the poverty rates have skyrocketed since this puppet took office.

[@Leosch633]

Well spending big on military while cutting everything else is a great way to worsen the situation

[@Medytacjusz]

What if it will take years for the answer to be resounding "no", is everyone ready for that eventuality

[@KS-tz9sg]

@@Leosch633 DPRK Style "Songun" ideology

[@biocapsule7311]

He can't, his whole ideology is about government not fixing anything. Argentina's problem is one of Geography, that why those that came before him was unable to fix it. Unless Milei can somehow move the land, don't see how he can change anything.

[@frankpred47]

Yesterday I saw an article saying Milei was gaining traction, today he is out of steam. I feel like I’m seeing a modern telling of ‘The Little Engine that Could’ play out here but I can only hope for the people of Argentina that the ending is like the children’s tale.

[@toyotaprius79]

To reimagine that metaphor, Milei is like the Engine that ran into a swampy Ditch

[@Bayard1503]

Because nobody knows what's happening but in my opinion the odds are that Argentina stays the same, just like in the past century.

[@mdl2427]

No one will know if it'll work till like 3-6 years from now tbh

[@ciro_costa]

Just see the graphs for poverty. Millei has managed to make families that always had a home live in the streets. All in the name of zeroing the national debt. Which he is far from doing. Argentina can just default the debt. It can be self sufficient.

[@1queijocas]

It is already working, Argentina was on track to be bankrupt by now if it weren’t for him. Of course it will take more than a year to fix such a broken country but the progress is remarkable thus far

[@primal1233]

I hope the lives of the people of Argentina get better

[@juancarlosalonso5664]

They might once the wall street puppet is out of office, right now everything is just getting worse.

[@gambit0913]

lol with a right winger in power? Dude made millions lose jobs overnight with his policies for short term metrics improvement which looks like isn’t even working anymore

[@stereomachine]

based comment; the condescending flippancy in others' comments is unpleasant

[@gastonibarra3305]

It's getting much worse

[@larryc1616]

Unfortunately it's not possible with El Loco in charge

[@watchdealer11]

A 60% inflation rate is phenomenal considering inflation was hitting 211% in January of 2024.

[@marinamunoz7117]

most of that was Milei taking the power in early December 2023 and a week later touching up the relation between dollars and pesos y the Central Bank, getting a 50 % inflation in a month.

[@zemm9003]

It was 211% because of Milei. It was much lower before that. It went from around 100% to 200% in 3 months because of the changes he introduced to the peso.

[@FaustoOriginal]

​@@marinamunoz7117 No fue 25% la de diciembre?

[@LubosMudrak]

@@zemm9003 the "unofficial", meaning the REAL inflation was much highier before Milei. What Milei did is that he made the REAL, inflation official so it was at least clear, how bad the situation really is. It was also mentioned in this video, you should watch it.

[@tremere26]

True, economy is about the long game however. Also makes this vid a bit useless. Reforms take years for it really takes off.

[@lordmashie]

Argentina definitely feels like an economic experiment rn. The results would be interesting.

[@bohanxu6125]

Those experiments are important for humanity. To optimize any complex system (like political and financial system), people need to have a variety of systems, some of which should have large deviation from the current best system in order to escape the local minimum trap of the current best system. This means over "bad" system like monarch, theocracy, and other authoritarian system in general should also exist as a minority of all current political systems. For instance, maybe theocracy is nearly the only way to avoid low birthrate... or maybe an absolute authoritarianism without the incentive of corruption, turns out to out perform democracy in the age of social media where the quality of popular opinion go into a spiral of negative feedback loops.

[@fazshura]

As an Argentinian I think it's a worth risk to take, we have one the largest countries in the world, full of natural resources and far from the main conflictive countries, however we gone from the best country in the world in 1.895 to now being one of the worse, we destroy 5 currency: peso moneda nacional, peso ley, peso argentino, australes and now peso. We had many presidents from all kinds of ideology and every single one has fuck up the economy. I think that's why a lot of people are enduring this very hard times without complaining, if the crazy man with two master's degrees in economy can't fix the country then we are doom to fail forever.

[@stephanusghibellino]

I'm Argentinian. This administration is brutal. Just pure hatred of the poor, the elderly and the working class. This guy will be ejected soon.

[@Master_Potaterchief]

​@@stephanusghibellino dear leftards: no matter how much you repeat that Milei hates woman, old peolple, the poor and children, no one is going to believe your lies. Also, since Milei took office you have been saying that "Milei is leaving in December, then January, February, March and so on..." people are already laughing at you guys.

[@LosSedentarios]

this experiment already happened. Same country, 1990. It didn't work. People just don't seem to care.

[@lelik0911]

When public sector spending is a large chunk of GDP (37%), cutting the public sector spending is going to reduce GDP until the private sector can grow to step in. So, yes, GDP will fall.

[@Matt-ou7tu]

Private sector investment tends to follow Public sector investment though. The Private sector likes to see that the state has confidence in the economy before it significantly invests itself.

[@mycodingchannel9690]

"private sector can grow to step in" lmao Except it never happens

[@juancarlosalonso5664]

Matt-ou7tu Talking economics with libertarians is like talking physiscs with chimps, they just don’t get it.

[@JosephSolisAlcaydeAlberici]

More than half of Argentine government spending is for pensions and government job salaries and benefits so it does make sense to drastically reduce them so that the private sector employment will flourish.

[@ciro_costa]

​@@juancarlosalonso5664 exactly

[@andrecruz1965]

in a country with high debt and high inflation, things were always going to get worse before they got better. This Shouldn't be news for anyone.

[@davidescristofaros2241]

@@andrecruz1965 populists and peronists are too dumb for that

[@shiroamakusa8075]

Except with a libertarian clown on top things will never get better. He'll just grab what he can and then skedaddle.

[@tomlxyz]

But that's the situation for years now, so the getting better part could also been now and not later

[@zzh315]

@@tomlxyz shit logic, he hasnt been in office for 1 year

[@juancarlosalonso5664]

Get worse? The guy is collapsing the economy, Argentina will be a failed state by the time this wall street puppet leave a office.

[@MaxTheLazyCat]

I just hope the people of argentina eventually do get a better country

[@stephanusghibellino]

With this guy? Impossible.

[@segiraldovi]

@@stephanusghibellino Javier Milei lowered inflation from 25% to 4%, took negative dollar reserves and increased them (recently he spent part of them but it was to pay debt that HE DID NOT TAKE, it comes from the past administration), began to cut taxes (and not necessarily for the rich) and deregulate hyper-regulated sectors in the economy. All this in 8 months of government in which the opposition has directly sabotaged everything he has proposed. Honestly, either you are not informed because coincidentally they always come up with bad numbers or make horrible mistakes whenever they talk about him (check the pinned comment of this video and the others in which they talk about him), or you have a problem with his ideology or with him himself. Explain to me: What moves you to say that he has not done anything?

[@fedeph665]

@@stephanusghibellino Y que queres capo, mejorar con el kirchnerismo que nos dejó un país destruido con 50% pobres, jubilaciones de 80 dolares dolar de 60 a 1200 en los últimos 4 años, sin contar que aumentaron la deuda pública en 120 mil millones de dólares?

[@caad5258]

Sure, when Milei and his ilk get fired.

[@meilinchan7314]

It won't happen unless the civil service is healthy and delivering as promised instead of being a tool for the rich.

[@arturcostrino2476]

"It is not clear why he is increasing the spending in the military". Wait until the next Argentinian election and you will understand why.

[@breadfella]

Thats what I'm thinking. "Security" often translates to "comfort and protection of those in control". Watch, all the private business that may move in to fill new vaccuums will likely have some small tie back to his pocket or the pockets of those friendly to him. Thats how this shit always goes. What he is doing is going beyond "trimmimg the fat" he's cutting the social safety net to the bone and then throwing it to the dogs.

[@lazyboy300]

exactly. just wait until he loses and don't recognize the result and claim fraud just like trump and bolsonaro. in fact, before loosing he'll already start to cast doubt in the electoral system. for trump the fake problem was the mail paper votes, for bolsonaro, it was the eletronic voting machines. let's see what milei's fake reason is gonna be. in the us, the army didn't play along but trump attempted a coup in january 6th. in brazil, the armed forces were divides and on the fence and bolsonaro attempted a coup in january 8th. plus, there's always the path of changing the electoral system for him to keep getting reelected, like orban, erdogan and maduro. they all need the army at their side. or at least with their pockets full and not opposing them

[@Testimony_Of_JTF]

​@@lazyboy300Bolsonaro never claimed the election was stolen thoughbeit

[@Testimony_Of_JTF]

​@@lazyboy300Neither Trump or Bolsonaro were directly responsible for those riots. They were not even serious coup attempts really

[@nicolasgonzalez3905]

The reporter didnt put a lot of effort in explaining. We are looking to go to war, that was never the tradition in Argentine foreign policy. The Falklands War was a unique political move in that sense by an Argentine government, which I remind you was the last attempt to keep a nationalist military dictatorship in power. What Milei seeks is to recompose and rearm the Argentine Armed Forces that were dismantled after the return of democracy, our military did not have bullets to train, we did not have active fighter planes, our prefecture could not take action on illegal fishing in our sea , the border has become a sieve for drugs. On the other hand, it is seeking to be an external ally of NATO, which is why it increased the national budget by 2.1%, just as NATO asks of all its members. Don't take us Argentines for fools, we never seek war, we are a pacifist people.

[@Schnitzelfox]

Milei: I am a libetarian and anarchist. Also Milei: lets quadrouple military spending.

[@FloweryLilium]

Then you clearly don’t know Milei in depth and just stay with the titles. Either know about Argentina’s state before him.

[@martincatoniryan1638]

Countries need protecting, too. Don't forget that the country experienced two major terrorist attacks (AMIA and Israeli embassy), there is an insurrgent , radicalized and violent group of so called Mapuche tribes that carry out attacks and sets fires in some places of Patagonia (and in some places in Chile, too) , the islamic republic of Iran is suspected of assassinating an important federal prosecutor in his apartment in Buenos Aires, there is also a big drug and criminal gang problem in Santa Fe Province, there is a large border in the north and north east that is used for smuggling purposes, drugs, crime , etc... and lots of other international and national problems and other stuff that would require military power or intervention. Milei is an ardent supporter of Zelenski and Kiev and russia has ties to former corrupt politicians like Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. There's been a large influx of russians settleing in Argentina, some could be spies, agitators or worse. Our military had been definanced for decades , using old equipment that would not work or fare well against the threats. Also, there is the enormous Mar Argentino that has been depredated constantly by other countries, China is in that bag, as well . I seem to remember warning shots fired at some chinese boats and 1 that was sunk or boarded by the maritime police here... In addition, Milei is an enemy of Venezuelan ultra corrupt Nicolás Maduro. the Castro regime, ortega , etc. They could all disrupt life in Argentina at any time. Argentina needs protecting, is a big country in terms of landmass (it makes the top ten, if am not mistaken) and quite vulnerable and old, antique stuff in the military and intelligence agencies... Milei had a spat with spain's Pedro Sánchez, he could finance crime here out of spite, too. As he was publicly and globally shamed...

[@KeevanMegan]

​@@FloweryLilium or Libertarianism

[@Schnitzelfox]

​@@FloweryLilium yeah true I just like to shit post. I also just have big dislike for people who claim to be pro small state, cause they cut things like education social funding and taxes, while increasing police and military funding.

[@My_Old_YT_Account]

​​​@@SchnitzelfoxArgentina just doesn't have the money for anything that isn't the bare minimum to continue existing, hence the military and police still being required spending, especially with Venezuela trying to start a war in the continent A small state isn't no state either

[@Rob1nson]

He is doing good things for Argentina and people should be hopeful and get behind him. The alternative is so much worse.

[@natedcarr6148]

I'm no economist, but I know GDP measures both private sector activity and government spending. What Milei needs is not just government spending cuts, but also increases in private sector activity to offset decreases in GDP because of government spending cuts. So there needs to be investment by the private sector, especially from foreign companies, to help grow Argentina's economy, which is what I think Milei is going for.

[@percelomalsda]

Private sector is shrinking under Milei. Most jobs lost are in the private sector. We explain this many times. If you cut public expenditure, people will have less money and buy less wich will provoke the shrinking of the private sector. Specially in a country like Argentina where most of the people consume is made localy.

[@AYTM1200]

Exactly, I'm not against budget cuts but if the Conservative government in the UK has taught us anything it's that without PROPER private sector investment those cuts are useless

[@halohunter111]

​@@percelomalsdathat's why he is incentivising foreign investment in markets that focus on exports.

[@nunyabidness3075]

@@percelomalsdaSo, what you are saying is that Argentina is now trapped in a statist hell which can never be escaped. Unless the government prints money to give to consumers, the people will simply go without? Personally, I’d go get a job rather than starve, but I guess Argentinians prefer to go on hunger strikes?

[@percelomalsda]

@@halohunter111 And he is falling spectacularly. Even his personal argentinian businessman friends prefer to invest in Lula's Brasil rather than Argentina. Who will want to invest in a country where people buy less every day?

[@cageybee7221]

Milei funding the army is a pretty obvious "please don't overthrow me" move.

[@SneedSeeding]

It's Latin America... ofc he has to worry about that.

[@gastongarraza7391]

Even if the army wanted to... They do not have the strengh to make a coup

[@thatweatherman4411]

@@SneedSeeding Luis Acre was almost overthrown until the people of Bolivia came out and supported him and the military backed down. The leaders of the attempt were immediately arrested and revoked of their titles

[@cageybee7221]

@@thatweatherman4411 true but that's an exception, generally military coups are very dangerous even when they fail.

[@thatweatherman4411]

@@cageybee7221 cause usually I’ve seen what happens if the people stand up to them the military immediately turns against their own people and guns them down

[@zUJ7EjVD]

Sure, cut health budgets and quadruple military spending on a continent that has had more military coups than actual wars. The only wars since WW2 being a short one between Ecuador and Peru in 1995 and a war between Argentina and the UK over the Falkland Islands in 1982. Sure Argentina is abundant in natural resources and so may be unable to go the Costa Rica route, but surely the status quo is sufficient in the current geopolitical climate.

[@JSK010]

You think we got rich by spending on health care, pensions and welfare benefits?

[@weiserwolf580]

@@JSK010 no, but the spending helps to keep the masses docile and not in the mood for revolution

[@jongxina3595]

​@weiserwolf580 thats why u increase the military budget

[@JSK010]

@@weiserwolf580 we got rich first, created a welfare state after.

[@ipadsrawesome3667]

@@JSK010 in general i would say yes. All of those programmes provide more value to their economy than the military would. Im sure spending on health is a net positive investment for most countries. Pensions were paid into by the recipients and welfare at least attempts to keep people out of poverty and gets spent bavk into the economy.0 When they buy new military equipment thay is not produced there that is just money leaving the country that buys equipment that sits on military bases.

[@srdjan455]

Cutting budgets to school and healthcare while increasing military budget? The writings on the wall with this one

[@uweinhamburg]

Teachers and nurses have never taken to the street with their machine guns and send an Argentinian President packing...

[@mserrano9644]

@@uweinhamburg They should...

[@ProfessorFickle]

@@uweinhamburg: sounds like a new idea 💡 .

[@uweinhamburg]

@@ProfessorFickle Well, i'm sure many others did have the same idea already 🤣🤣

[@dadaistaingegniere]

Why government should pay for education and healthcare? The function of a nation administration is to provide Justice and Safety. No more. If you like socialdemocrat systems you'll go broke in two or three generations. And that's exactly what Argentina did in the last century. Read from opposite sources and learn.

[@bwhog]

if inflation stabilizes, it can be dealt with. If it continues to climb, that's a killer. It will be interesting to see if he can pull it off. Ripping the bandage off can be hard.

[@davidescristofaros2241]

@@bwhog congress peronists are sabotaging him because they want the economy to fall, so they can hope to get back in power

[@joelcoll4034]

Inflation is going down

[@matheusd.rodrigues429]

If no one is eating, inflation will surely go down

[@adamelghalmi9771]

@@matheusd.rodrigues429 if they're going into massive pain, they'll need to set up a public food bank so the people don't starve.

[@agme8045]

@@matheusd.rodrigues429do the millions in Brazilian favelas also starve? How is poverty in your country any different to poverty in Argentina?

[@JasonAtlas]

Austerity increases. I don't like it but it can be reasonable. Austerity with military spending. That looks far more sinister to me.

[@el_Contra]

true, the military was mostly used for nefarious purposes in Argentina.

[@dadaistaingegniere]

Leftards definanced security forces for long thirty years. Soldiers had no ammo.

[@alimbedrihan4489]

The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.

[@Justinfred11]

Financial consultants can help by recommending investments that outpace inflation, such as real estate or certain stocks. A client of mine followed this strategy and saw their savings grow by 15_% in just two years, effectively countering inflation.

[@Joegolberg1]

That makes sense. Unlike us, you seem to have the market figured out. Who is your fiduciary?

[@Justinfred11]

Zachery M Demers is the licensed FA I work with, I can't speak much about him you should make a search with his name, you'd find the necessary details to schedule an appointment.

[@Ourfairduke]

These are bots. Please don't fall for this

[@figgettit]

lol

[@santigamerprogamer6493]

Hi, argentinian here. I've seen a lot of comments talking about how "this proves how free market and shiet doesn't work" and things alike, but I haven't seen anyone talking about real solutions, so could you, dear foreigners who just watched a video explain to me your plans to save Argentina? The more civil the discussion, the better.

[@spacemario]

La mayoría son europeos acostumbrados con sus altos niveles de vida (o estadunidenses que quieren copiar a los europeos), creen que son los mejores del mundo y que cualquier cosa que no sea intentar copiar a su Estado de bienestar va a resultar en un desastre. No se dan cuenta de que estan a camino de tornarse países de tercer mundo y que Argentina está implementando las políticas que la hicieron el país más rico del mundo antes de Yrigoyen y Perón.

[@totalnike03]

The free market does work, its just not overnight. Argentina has decades of malinvestment and debt to sort out. This is going to take years to sort out. Whilst im not a fan of milie his economic policies arent too bad

[@bloemkoolendestreetgang450]

Argentina is not gonna get better until you effectively fight corruption

[@Projolo]

What Milei is doing works but it takes a lot of time to see the benefit for now is pure pain.

[@flaya11]

Probably not have a bad haircut and trash around acting gangster when you're trying to court foreign investment

[@danthraxplague671]

The fact that's being obscured by thos video is that most of the deficit in the gdp is due to cut in public spending which was massive in argentina prior to milei, also if you look into the private sector a lot of the construction and real state industry is showing sharp signs of growth

[@prfwrx2497]

For Argentina's case, pumping defense spending isn't the way to increase defense capability in the foreseeable future. There's hardly anything to work with. 2% of a measly GDP won't get you any notable and results altering capabilities above the currently abysmal 0.5%. Better to supercharge the economic recovery first. Then there'll be cash around to invest into what's needed, civil and military.

[@martin-dw]

he said in a span of 8 years

[@myBestWishes677]

Military spending is really negligible compared to the numbers that really matter. And you just cannot have a so big a country without a credible deterrent.

[@Ildskalli]

​@@myBestWishes677 You can, Argentina has proven it in the last two decades... Their military has been a joke for at least that long, and no one has invaded them 🤣

[@SBVCP]

To be fair, I have no idea why milei is considered a good economist. Nothing from his performance so far, let alone his moronic discourses before teh elections, point to good ideas or methods. The only thing he has done more or less ok is dealign with itnerest rates but the way hes done it is no different than before, only faster and he is running out of steam

[@myBestWishes677]

@@SBVCP you just do not understand Argentina.

[@ariana9941]

i believe commenting on milei goverment in a day to day, month to month or even year to year basis is not helpful. i personally believe milei actually has a 4 year (minimum) plan and the results of milei could only be seen after his administration is over. if it wanted short term gains he would not make anything hes doing right now.

[@Leopold_van_Aubel]

Agree 100%. Even four years is quite short actually.

[@LubosMudrak]

Economy is my hobby and I find it fascinating to see exactly what I expect in real time. - the unoficial (thus real) inflation rate being made official, resulting in worse looking numbers, but at least it's number shat reflect reality - leftist autistic screeching that Milei is a monster and is preventing the rise of the ultimate global socialism so "great" for everybody - cutting the money supply from the government bank with residual inflation still coming out from the institution and investment sector for YEARS before the consumer sector inflation of prices will stop rising - drop in GDP because the government stopped doing stuff. This creates an economic vacuum that will gradualy be filled by private companies. Without government subsidies this will take decades, but will result in a healthy and wealthy economy - next in line are the assasination attempts. I guarantee you that we will see a LOT of assasination attempts on Milei encouraged by the Russian, Chineese and European propaganda. - if assasination attempts and propagandizinh the argentinian people will be unsuccesfull, we will see a small rise in GDP every upcoming year. Few years after that, argentinian people will be a little bit wealthier every year. It will be a looong and rough road. Lol, you know what, I will post shis also as a separate post

[@ariana9941]

@@LubosMudrak how old are you

[@LubosMudrak]

@@ariana9941 old enough 😝

[@ariana9941]

@@LubosMudrak not an answer

[@Fede-z7d]

I’m here to read the comments, I dont waste my time watching videos about Milei, because 99% are wrong, purposely or by mistake for not checking the facts. My TLDR is, Milei is the best president in the history of Argentina, he’s heading to become a “procer” as his achievements in such short time are unmatched in the history of the world. He is killing inflation from a 20-25% a month to 3.5% in record times. He achieved a fiscal surplus in his first month, and this only happened for 10 years in the last 120 years of Argentina’s history. He is our savior, and many people who were going to flee the country if he didn’t win, like me, now have hope on seeing our country rise.

[@RollyBalondo]

It's usually the policy that stimulates the economy. The budget alone cannot move the economy without a favorable policy. If the business environment is good, business will thrive, and tax collection also increase.

[@KeevanMegan]

Taxes for what? This becoming a Libertarian society. By cutting taxes, the people get to keep their income to invest into businesses once the gross subsidies vanish from the market since prices have been fixed for decades. Stuff like this could take years. His goal is to return the government to its basic principles, protecting human rights and property. Taxes would only fund the necessary functions of governance. I.e. congress. Police/fire, departments, Courts so on and so on.

[@cannabico6621]

what income? 😁

[@wyldhowl2821]

Unless the government promises not to collect any taxes. Then it gets nothing.

[@pebblepod30]

Why would Argentina need to x4 its military budget? Who does it need to defend against? Aliens?

[@FloweryLilium]

@@pebblepod30 Because our past administrations (a lot) payed 0 attention to the military budget and in military terms we were EMPTIED. That’s the reason.

[@bruno89245]

argentina has 0 active submarines, the meko 360 and 140 are the same as they were in the 80s, the helicopters are from the 50s and so on. argentina the 8 largest country in the world spends 0.46% of GDP on military, they are destroyed to the point that they cant protect the country.

[@MartinDeHill]

I believe there's some islands that make for a convenient distraction 😂

[@jonathanrhill78]

Salford.

[@francoestrubia6503]

Milei believes in aliens, so..

[@jackiecooper9439]

You can meet with Milei if you promise him an award.

[@puertousbmonkey]

Just institutions that fight for freedom. Why are you against freedom? Do you support Maduro ?

[@ProfessorFickle]

😮😂

[@puertousbmonkey]

@@ProfessorFickle Depends on the institution. They are all from the private sector. No politics awarding other politics

[@TheDankSavage]

Cuts to spending when you have nothing to spend is anything but "ambitious".

[@JokeShinet]

Why do you think that???

[@frankmedrisch7451]

What are you talking about? The peso under Milei is incredibly EXPENSIVE. The real exchange rate is at a record low, so no chance of export recovery

[@marcv2648]

Argentine agricultural exports are already growing.

[@sk-dr8zu]

​@@marcv2648 Agriculture exports won't do any good for the country and economy either. caloric goods (food, fuel) are worth over the currency, income from the export with those will do more harm than any good.

[@CoyotesOwn]

Run out of steam? He's still full of hot air.

[@Azmodaeus49]

A lot of it😂

[@toyotaprius79]

Like a Steam Engine that ran dry and seconds from a molten explosion 💥

[@lewis123417]

He's done more to run a normal economy in less than a year than the Peronists have in 10

[@RichXVIII]

It’s almost as though a self-described “anarcho-capitalist” is the solution to all of Argentinas woes…

[@mexicanopdb]

Yeah instead of a brain he has that in his head lol

[@move2003ny]

why does Milei want a much stronger army? Because he will need their support to stay in power for the next 20 or 30 years.

[@EuGeez]

Nah, i think its because he wants Argentina to be another global superpower. I believe he said he wants to join NATO

[@melkormorgothbauglir.4848]

Yeah not super Libertarian of him but then again you live in South America.

[@thatweatherman4411]

@@melkormorgothbauglir.4848 look what they almost did to the President of Bolivia

[@melkormorgothbauglir.4848]

@@thatweatherman4411 And Bolivia one of the more stable countries in South America its not like Columbia or nearly as bad as the favelas.

[@123roccos]

Because our air force most lethal plane is a Cesna, our navy biggest ship is a corvette and the army tanks can't beat a ww2 t-34. Argentina didn't expend a dime in defense since 1990.

[@justinalias7969]

There is a reason that we don’t use monthly data (and it’s 60% not 160%). It often is heavily revised and can drive policy based on few datapoints. Stable inflation is far better than volatile inflation because contracting parties can better anticipate future gains. That is singularly needed for large scale investments.

[@JSK010]

Interesting that the Peronists deliver nothing for decades but someone new is expected to fix everything within 6 months.

[@Cuttuttlefish]

I noticed this too, it's fascinating! When socialists get 40 years of chances it's still "oh wow things are a mess, thank God for the socialist policy though because just think how bad it would be if we didn't have that to help us given how bad things are!" but with a libertarian leader they are blamed for all the problems and it's declared their policies are a failure after literally just a few months of it not fixing everything. This just goes to show the power of what a policy says on the tin. If a "child poverty reduction policy" does nothing to reduce child poverty it will still get A LOT of lee way just because it CLAIMS to reduce it. The inverse is also true, a policy of cutting programs in a way that is on paper indifferent to the problems they were meant to solve is lambasted for being callous and cruel even if the data shows the country is having dismal outcomes in the area the program being cut ostensibly fixes. I can see why this makes sense, why would you repeal the thing that says it fixes the problem you want solved? It makes sense people are fooled: convincing people of the value of freedom over intervention / Peronism can be counterintuitive, it's hard to fight against marketing that simply claims it will solve everything, even when you have data to show it's not helping and hasn't been for decades.

[@DmitriPolkovnik]

I mean he was the one who made bold promises to fix everything and secondly no one is expecting a miracle or denying the problems the economy had beforehand. I'm an economist for a living and I don't really think it was necessary to increase the poverty rate 15% to solve this problem.

[@varimatra2088]

The problem isnt that people want him to fix the economy in a snap but he obliterated it in a snap 20% of the industry gone over 57% of the population on the povertry line now from 40% 2 years ago so yeah... Milei comes butfuck the economy and then you say "well its beem only 6 months" yea imagine the damage he will do in 4 years

[@89joshuadavies]

The Peronists didn't want an explosion in real poverty, which is exactly what has happened

[@Aoderic]

We who are opposed to him, did not expect him to solve anything, we are only waiting for him to fail and give up. The people who was expecting miracles was his followers, because he himself had promised miracles.

[@zealisrealfan]

We got shock therapy before GTA 6

[@Rogueisabattyboy]

Dead meme. Move on bro.

[@Borzogo]

Austerity for the poor is really popular with the rich.

[@microcosmonauta]

A government whose stated purpose is not to solve anything with the use of public resources and who expects private capital to solve everything. Brilliant! Good luck with that.

[@MChagall]

No the gov is not spending so much and thus lowering pressure on companies that actually pay the taxes. Companies grow, the number of jobs and taxes increases and the rest will follow

[@communism_is_based]

@@MChagall reality says otherwise, companies are closing and poverty skyrocketing

[@Androrac]

You're a commie. Your opinion is invalid

[@puertousbmonkey]

Yeah, lets keep printing fake money and solve everyone s problems lol😂 commie detected

[@Hardcore_Remixer]

And your solution is to increase the government spending amd thus force the companies to pay mpre taxes for that money to come? Because obviously taxes must be increased to increase government spending and government spending must be reduced in order to cut taxes. And businesses need smaller taxes in order to be able to grow to produce and sell more and hire people. This is how the private sector works. Ever considered that you don't need to control everything and everyone to run the country?

[@flolow6804]

They realy expected that guy to save the complete chaos of an economy and state in half a year ?

[@crinklecut3790]

I hope it works out, but he changed it so he now owns it, good or bad. They do the same thing to US presidents a week after they’re elected.

[@martincatoniryan1638]

It is working out. Slowly. Major banks give loans so that ppl can own houses. That happens in a variety of countries. It didnot happen in argentina for decades. The stock market is in somewhat good shape, security and safety is improving a bit, corrupt politicians are finally getting investigatedby justice, etc.

[@dererik9070]

He promised more investment from the private sector but it will take pain to get their, the pain has delivered for the Argentina people and investors are losing faith if his plan would aspire investment we would see this the effects (better conditions) would show later but we don't even see investments by the private sector

[@nicolassalinas6295]

​@@martincatoniryan1638i don't think anyone is buying houses right now

[@santi2683]

No, they just want to shit on him for not fixing everything in 73 seconds out of hypocrisy and their inability to accept electoral defeats, this isn't the first time that this happens

[@viviancarolgioao]

It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.

[@DonaldStokes-p]

It's a good idea to seek advice at the moment, unless you're an expert yourself. As someone who runs a service business and sells products on eBay, I can tell you that the economy is struggling and many people are struggling financially.

[@SeanTalkoff]

Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.

[@Tonyrobs2]

How can I reach this advisers of yours? because I'm seeking for a more effective investment approach on my savings?

[@SeanTalkoff]

'Sharon Ann Meny' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment

[@Tonyrobs2]

Thank you for the recommendation. I'll send her an email, and I hope I'm able to reach her.

[@JOGA_Wills]

Miliei sounds like Icraus, but without the wings

[@ProfessorFickle]

But he has crazy hair instead of wings 🪽

[@Christine-rk1dp]

“Revive” implies that it was alive to begin with... Argentina hasn’t had a stable economy since 1930.

[@chepushila1]

This is basically whoring the country away. You need real economy not just some financial manipulation. And Argentina is very far away from major markets.

[@vladimirbazhaev7851]

a video about Milei... here come the smooth brain Elon fans infesting the comment section

[@puertousbmonkey]

You mean the most successful entrepeneur of the century? Are you a commie ?

[@Dragonited]

Government economies that have their own currency don't really need to run on a surplus even if it is a plus if it does. What they need to do is to improve the people's economies so they have better purchasing power, which will increase demand and, in turn, will increase investments to fill that demand. You don't do that by destroying the welfare state. Sure, it will lower wages and increase exports but will mostly help big corporations and not the people's economies.

[@carlomazzi4345]

Hi there Javier Milei did not remove the welfare program, he slashed incompetent and corrupt sectors of the public works programs that were the states money for corruption and money laundering such as the note book scandal in which millions of dollars was funneled into fake housing projects that were never built or the numerous soup kitchens that were created by the former Kirchnerist government that was meant for the needy that didn't exist. When Javier Milei discovered what was going on he took action and launched criminal proceedings against several of the corrupt kirchnerists/Peronists politicians this is why he has slashes some of these public sectors and reduced incompetent staff to pave for a more transparent efficient Government! You want the true inside story go to LA Nacion or Las Ves Jonathan Viale their Argentine news channels you can use the youtube translator or id you understand Spanish then you will realise the true story for what it is! Javier Milei is a blessing for Argentina and has the brains and balls to move Argentina into a new prosperous path!

[@DailyBusiness365]

60% is better than what it was

[@AtzeHHouse]

Cutting education and healthcare budgets while massively increasing military spending? Really shows where this guy’s priorities are…

[@sephoramandondo2548]

Didnt he say he wants the falkands back?

[@ScudForEver]

@@sephoramandondo2548 nah, he is a declared Thatcher/Raegan fanatic, and a pro pseudo jew Israel fanatic too. No way he is going against the boots he loves to lick.

[@Projolo]

Argentina barely spends on the military any increase would be big. They have been spending lower than the maintenance cost and most vehicles don't work

[@ScudForEver]

@@Projolo your opinion is not wrong. But like Atze says, when your family is hungry you don't buy a new Colt.

[@Projolo]

@@ScudForEver what if they are stealing your food like they are doing to Argentina that can't defend their maritime borders?

[@Rainy_Day12234]

No one ever claimed reforms would be easy or be immediate. It’s going to take years for an economy addicted to government stimulus to get back on track. Blame past politicians and bureaucrats for spending and reckless borrowing. It’s now time to pay the price of past poor public sector decisions to lay the foundations of a more prosperous future.

[@pumpkineater31699]

Yeah, they expect Argentina with years of corruption and socialism to become US in 2 years lol

[@ellaaysun6181]

I was a stay at Home mom with no money in my IRA or any savings of my own, which was scary at 53 years of age. Three years ago I got a part time job and save everything I make. After 3 years, I am 56 yo and have put $9,000 in an IRA and $40,000 in my portfolio with CFA, Stephanie Janis Stiefel. Since the goal of getting a job was to invest for retirement and NOT up my lifestyle, I was able to scale this quickly to $150,000. If I can do this in a year, anyone can.

[@annemoore4461]

I went from no money to Invest with to busting my A** off on Uber eats for four months to raise about $20k to start trading with Stephanie Janis Stiefel. I am at $128k right now and LOVING that you have to bring this up here

[@aydin6219]

I know this lady you just mentioned. Stephanie Janis Stiefel is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as an employee of neuberger berman; a renowned investor she is. Stephanie Janis Stiefel has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients.

[@MafArdoleda]

@@annemoore4461How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?

[@emmabeyza6036]

Stephanie Janis Stiefel has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's

[@MafArdoleda]

@aydin6219 How can i contact her, if you don't mind me asking?

[@boink800]

It's still very silly that there is not just *one* exchange rate for the dollar. That's still a horrible mess. The one and only exchange rate for the US dollar should be the free market rate, or the "blue" rate.

[@thomasjheferson7548]

Los comunistas socialistas y demócratas jamás lo entenderá. La izquierda no sabe de economía

[@jorgeluisgimenez9837]

That one peso bill hasn't been used for decades. Actually it is part of a previous currency also called "peso" (peso de curso legal) it would be more accurate to use a $1000 peso bill, because there is no $1 bill

[@julianmonakian]

We good. No worries. (I'm from and live in Argentina)

[@OnlyDegenerateWorkAtYouTube]

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes!

[@Robin-z1s]

ikr, increasing military spending they claim to be broke yet cutting education/healthcare; the very things that grow an economy. And letting foreign corporations completely tax free free and completely free from environmental regulations. It's not like most shit hole countries have companies dumping toxic chemicals into the soil, water and air.

[@puertousbmonkey]

yeah, hiperinflation from previous commie goverment. And Milei is solving the problem. Thanks

[@normanchan2001]

When does austerity ever work? Asking for David Cameron.

[@boink800]

It works just fine for the rich.

[@xr2kid]

Austerity appears to work in the short term but in the long term it just destroys everything but when you are in a Democracy it doesn't matter because by the time everything crashes down it's another administration's problem.

[@segiraldovi]

Austerity works, the problem with austerity is when you don't back it up with tax cuts. The problem with the UK was that its beautiful government said: I'll stop funding healthcare and that's it, which obviously left it underfunded because if you don't back it up with deregulation/tax cuts so that the private sector absorbs that portion that you stopped funding, then it will be a disaster.

[@FloweryLilium]

@@boink800 Tell that to the Argentine people that saw their public sector growing for the past years and only them getting rich.

[@Hideyoshi1991]

​@@segiraldovi the "private sector" won't step up without heavy government subsidies, and then it often gives the same or even worse service at 15x the price, some things just don't benefit from being privatised.

[@hungo7720]

For the time being Argentine people are suffering from punitive inflation regardless of Milei’s strenuous efforts.

[@martincatoniryan1638]

still, his public image is somewhat good and inflation keeps going down, down , down.

[@123roccos]

I don't know bro, we are haveing the lowest inflation in years. Yeah, it's a lot by a normal country standars. But its the first time in decades that the bich goes down, insted of up.

[@ernimuja6991]

First world countries are struggling right now. Perhaps the worst time to take on all the issues with Argentina but perhaps Argentina would’ve not survived the coming recession otherwise.

[@salvadorzorraquin8864]

whole month without a video about this, he has ptsd from the multiple corrections from the comments.

[@tobiwan001]

Milei is no free market economist, he is an anarcho-capitalist. So what he is doing actually should not work, especially when combined with extreme austerity in the middle of a recession. But we also know no economy behaves like Argentina. So let's see how this experiment with the Argentinian people turns out.

[@adamelghalmi9771]

it might fail, it might work. if it works, that'd be a sign for other defunct economies like south africa that change can work.

[@paxundpeace9970]

Economics are straight forward cuts will hurt GDP a lot.

[@Tespri]

New Zealand did this decade ago and flourished after it.

[@tobiwan001]

@@adamelghalmi9771 New Zealand did not have high inflation, dysfunctional institutions and it did not start with extreme austerity but with free market reforms. But also New Zealand benefitted from high commodity prices and wealthy immigrants. None of these factors apply to Argentina.

[@adamelghalmi9771]

@@tobiwan001 argentina had a good bit of wealthy immigrants arriving from the early 40s to late 60s, but that was a select few individuals.

[@myBestWishes677]

I feel that this commentator speaks as if he would be speaking about an european country. He does not understand why Milei got elected, and thinks that Argentinians react to Milei as people would react in Spain!!! The report is somewhat missleading and the numbers mentioned are just plain wrong.

[@MGuðmundur]

"Things will get tougher before they get better" You cant expect to fix 100 years of wrongs in 9 months. WAKE UP

[@puertousbmonkey]

He is doing fine. The problem is all traditional media was founded by goverment's institutional advertising and Milei cut this spending 😂

[@francisconavarrog.1951]

A couple of notes: Milei's name is pronounced "Me-lay", with an accent on the second syllable. Also, more concerning than the raise in military spending is the one in the intelligence services, which have been historically opaque and used to persecute and spy on political opponents. Also, his plan calls for transferring all educational and health-care expenditures to the provinces while at the same time asking them to cut their budgets by 60 billion dollars.. what could go wrong?

[@sebas2k]

To anyone that might be interested, this government started on Dec. 2023 and the inflation since has been: Dec. 25.5% Jan. 20.6% Feb. 13.2% March 11% April 8.8% May 4.3% June 4.6% Jul. 4% Aug. 4.2% If it is assumed an inflation of 4.0% for the rest of the year means that the year-on-year Dec-Dec inflation is going to be 598% or the 2024 inflation is going to be 456%.

[@Xiquinhodasilva99]

and the inflation from oct 23 and nov 23?

[@sebas2k]

@@Xiquinhodasilva99 8.3 and 12.8, you can Google the year-on-year for 2023, let me know what you find.

[@Max_Power_]

So Milei lowered inflation to the lowest in the last 2 years, but you say inflation is triple of the last year with previous government that was 211%? I think you messed up the numbers because with the data you sent the Dec-Dec inflation would be 175.17% and the 2024 inflation would be 128.03%.

[@marinamunoz7117]

@@Xiquinhodasilva99 you mean the period in what the market saw that Milei was the next President?

[@sebas2k]

@@Max_Power_ Great! You got the numbers right, now I'll take what you just wrote: With the data you sent the Dec-Dec inflation would be 175.17% and the 2024 inflation would be 128.03% And that is the lowest inflation in the past two years?? Obviously you understand that 175.17>128.03, so what is the "achievement" of reaching a 4% monthly inflation when the year on year has even larger than of 2024? Sure you have to assume a flat inflation rate of 4% for the rest of the year. I truly hope that's the case but, is that a realistic assessment?

[@katynewt]

Argentina is the perfect example of extreme incompetence. Being a resource-rich country, it has no reason to be in economic trouble.

[@jaspermooren5883]

Resource rich is actually one of the main drivers for unstable goverments. If you can get money from other sources than the population itself as a government it is much easier to maintain a corrupt goverment (or even outright dictatorship). The vast majority of resource rich countries are poorly run. And those that aren't usually already were stable countries before they found the riches (such as Norway, and to a lesser extend, the USA). A stable democracy is actually very hard to get and even harder to maintain. It's kind of a miracle that quite a lot of countries have managed to do it at all. Argentina doesn't have a long tradition of a democracy (only since 1983).

[@airisakura1119]

I have no words for limiting the spending for education and healthcare... and to spend more on military... Its so stupid. He is selling the future.

[@carlomazzi4345]

I AGREE DO YOUR RESEARCH IT ALL COMMENCED WITH THE PERONISTS/KIRCHNERISTS BEFORE THAT HAPPENED ARGENTINA WAS THE MOST PROSPEROUS AND ADVANCED NATION ON EARTH BY THE TURN OF THE 20TH CENTURY! THE PERONISTS HAD GOOD INTENTIONS AT THE BEGINNING WITH THE PUSH FOR INDUSTRIALIZED GOODS AND SERVICES AND MANUFACTURING HOWEVER THEY BECAME TO OVER PROTECTIONIST WITH SOME OF THEIR INDUSTRIES AND POLICIES WHICH HAD A GRADUAL EFFECT ON ARGENTINA'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BUT THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE IMPACT WAS WHEN THE PERONISTS BEGAN TO PRINT MORE MONEY ITS WHEN THE NIGHTMARE COMMENCED! MILEI IS DESTINED TO FIX ARGENTINA'S LONG TERM CHAOS AND HE WILL THROUGH HIS BRAINS COURAGE AND GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE A NEW PROSPEROUS ARGENTINA! VIVA LA LIBERTAD!🦁

[@nachogonzalezseamoslibres]

@@jaspermooren5883 Mira esto explica un poco ! en 1990 Argentina saco la ley de Mineria que solo mantiene por 30 años regalias a un 3 % con dos minas entre las mas grande del mundo de oro !. 30 años ! lo que sacas no se controla ! o sea que si un pais extranjero esta obteniendo una tasa del 5 % en algun bono de eeuu esta pagando practicamente todo !!.. aparte de amortizar en el tiempo el capital ! y sigue pasando lo msimo ! Argentina es idiota ! ese es el problema ! Ahora pasa lo mismo ! todo regalado a años !! Somos de baja democracia ! Argentian tiene un problema que no piensa en ella !! y asi con las rutas comerciales etc etc ! si no existe un plan minimo de industrializar !! imposible somos idiotas !! nos guiamos en politcas y beneficios de otros !..

[@ladymorwendaebrethil-feani4031]

Here in Brazil, monetary policy hawks are in despair because of inflation of 4% per year. The center of the target is 3% and the ceiling of the target is 4.5%. GDP is growing at about 3% per year. Things seem to be going very well here, and we have a center-left government. I think the problem is not ideology, but the Argentine mania of thinking that there are miracle solutions to economic problems every 4 years. They always go very radically in one direction and then undo everything, and this process is always very expensive, generates legal uncertainty and debt. If there were a minimum consensus, as there is in Brazil, Argentina might not be in such a bad situation.

[@martin-dw]

i don't think you are correct. Argentina didn't go to a very radically direction with every goverment. all of them went for the same direction, more goverment, more goverment agency, more goverment spending. in 2000 was like 20% and in 2023 was like 40% of the total gdp. and thats only 20 years, argentina is going this direction for almost a century.

[@deffranca3396]

there's no consensus though. It's institutions. Lula is trying to implement a PAC 3 but to do that it needs to increase spending but it cant because of central bank's indenpendence, golden rule, Central bank's inability to finance treasury and etc...

[@mosaloquendo]

@@martin-dw You've never studied Argentinian history then, in the 90s or even Macri's goverment were totally pro-market and in Menem's case reduced the state at it's minimum

[@martin-dw]

@@mosaloquendo Menems first administration was KIINDA pro-market, specially taking in mind how was before, but TOTALLY is very a big statment. and Macri was totally a social democrat, yeah he cut spending (42% from 47%) but only a bit and at the cost of getting a giant loan. If Macri is "totally pro-market" What the fuck is Milei to you? the god of capitalism? I think you are very at the left my friend and everything you see is far-right

[@mosaloquendo]

@@martin-dw To Me, Milei is that he says he is, an anarcho-capitalist. And how on earth is privatizing the national airline, water, electricity, gas, railways, ports, banks, the state oil company, and even the post office (!!!) is just kinda pro-market to you? I get that Macri didn't deregulate at Milei's pace but he left goverment on a 0,5% primary deficit. To me my friend, your sympathy for Milei is making you biased, he's not the first capitalist president in 100 years and most of his ideas were tried before. You could argue that they were poorly implemented, but financial deregulation, privatization and austerity are not new to Argentina.

[@jpdelgiu]

As the great brazilian economist Maria da Conceição Tavares says "nobody eats GDP, they eat food". I wish strenght to my fellow neighbors

[@RobertoAllende]

I like the model and how you're analyzing and trying to infer the plan and assumptions the government is making about the macroeconomy. This is the most interesting biased analysis against Milei's government that I've come across. A few comments, though: The military forces have been completely abandoned for decades, making it impossible for Argentina to defend its sovereignty. Argentina has a 11,968-kilometer-long border and controls around 2.7 million square kilometers of sea territory. It is well known that the borders were largely unguarded for decades, not only against illegal immigration but also against drug trafficking and illegal fishing vessels that operate freely in Argentine waters. Not to mention, a submarine sank a few years ago due to poor maintenance, tragically killing its entire crew. Keynesian nonsense is something Argentina tried in the 1970s, 1980s, 2000s, and again in the 2010s and 2020s, and IT DOESN'T WORK. It only leads to massive corruption, overwhelming fiscal pressure, and politicians disconnected from reality. I find the use of the phrase 'Cuts in Public Services' to be an even more grotesque mistake than the miscalculations on inflation. Please, listen to the government press conferences and review the reports detailing the cuts and expenditures made by previous governments. The spending by pasts administrations are ridiculous. The cuts have been made to public expenditures. Now, an important discussion to have is how much of these cuts were actually made to services, and how much were directed at non-sense expenditures. Regarding public support, it would be helpful if you could provide approval ratings, which are very high. To give you an idea, during the campaign, those scenes with chainsaws were filmed, and those chainsaws were actually brought by the people. Milei used the chainsaw as a metaphor, but the public actually brought them. People are demanding cuts on public spending which is not the same as public services because we’re exhausted by corruption and fiscal pressure and paying taxes that enrich politicians while making the people poorer. It would be great if you could include fiscal pressure figures in your future analysis as well, since taxes are killing private industry. Lastly, I strongly encourage you to watch "El histórico monólogo N° 2000 de Tato Bores - Planeta Tato Bores" that was an half humour half serious analysis about currency policy... Argentina has been dealing with inflation and decificits as far as 1960, even more so...

[@digidevil4]

My god they are so screwed

[@hmttd2272]

We are, this guy wont fix the country and the situation is worse than before

[@lewis123417]

​@hmttd2272 your a classic Argentinian, your expecting him to give in? Carry on destroying the country and print more money so you can all get your handouts on the IMF expense? He's been in 6 months, he made it clear expect things to get worse before they get better. Argentinians are directly responsible for allowing their politicians to be so irresponsible and allowing their political class to bribe them with subsidies and cheap government money all these decades

[@martin-dw]

There is literally, no way that anyone with no amount of plannets align that could solve this problem without hurting the citenzenship. Is like having a drug addict and you try to stop him consuming drugs, at the beggining it will be painful, stressful and horrible, but is for the best

[@hmttd2272]

@@martin-dw thats the retarded answer that a portion of our country repeats, milei promised that the consecuencies wouldnt be for the private sector. The handouts to people who dont work are bigger than before, you got scammed, sorry tho break it to you

[@FloweryLilium]

⁠​⁠@@hmttd2272 Milei is implementing radical measures, yes, but we were always screwed. Or you prefer to forget the past administration with uncontrollable inflation, depreciation of the currency, poverty that is not very different from today’s and worse knowing their solutions were printing more money and price controls that did nothing?

[@damobdaking]

So why pay tax if these guys cut services.

[@Xiquinhodasilva99]

to make the rich even more rich, is not that the plan??

[@pablologioco9221]

to pay the FMI

[@elijahjohnson1952]

To pay off the states' debts

[@lazgkhn]

⁠@lc2k116less services mean less money in the economy what means less jobs and tax income.

[@damobdaking]

​@@elijahjohnson1952 The 80's called. That didn't work 40 years ago why do you think it will magically work now?

[@rednaxelA11]

Argentina's gvt budget is running a surplus, at the cost of reducing public services. So, why does milei think i would now be more interested in investing/relocating production to argentina? If the gvt is spending less on the workforce, what, is he expecting me to pick up the tab in order to waive export rates? If i cant get workers due to illness or poor travel, i wont get exports..

[@HOI4notsoproplayer]

Because you arent paying the taxes and tariffs to operate in Argentina lol Litterally becoming cheaper to invest there

[@marinamunoz7117]

@@HOI4notsoproplayer the new tax measures get almost no taxes for foreign companies, but the costs for producing, transporting and delivering things in dollars is more expensive than in nearby countries, you could pay pennies for the workforce, but all else is astronomically expensive than in Paraguay, Brasil, or Chile.

[@HOI4notsoproplayer]

@@marinamunoz7117 mostly because taxes on other things such as transportations are yet to be changed, its been only a few months after all but i can tell you brazil is far more expensive, mostly because we litterally have THREE transportation taxes, along with bilions of other taxes that i didint even think were possible to exist

[@123roccos]

Because if the inflation goes down, and with the economic libaration that Milei is promoting, you as a company can plan ahead.

[@etienne8110]

Spoilers : no. A few will get richer and 10 years later people will be even more miserable because they ll have to pay these few to get access to basic necessities.

[@thundereagle4130]

But luckily Massa had plans to fix the economy...... Right??????

[@federicofigueroa3828]

Or you are a 1st world marshmellow socialist or voted for Massa (no middle point for you)

[@caad5258]

glad to see someone gets it

[@SidheKnight]

Exactly.

[@romeromarquezmateo7724]

We can't predict the future so let's see what time has to say

[@WOLFPACKVF2]

Argentina is the country of novels, speeches, the easy solutions, but the reality presents different figures all the time.

[@Santiago-qv4gw]

There are many easy misconceptions. For instance, the “devaluation” is not about exporting more. There’s the actual price of the peso and the official rate which was set by previous governments. “Devaluation” of the official rate is just about eliminating smoothly the controlled price of the peso. Also, the regularization of undisclosed savings is not about dollarizing, that’s not the way you do it (and it’s not certain that it is still the plan), it’s just a way of fueling up economic activity. Etc

[@michaelthomas5433]

We should've just set up a kickstarter to buy Argentina. It's a beautiful country.

[@flipgalaxy711]

At 6:28, Jack refers to the year-on year inflation rate at %160 when I think it should be just %60 1.04^12 = 1.60 but it should be 1-(1.04^12) = 0.6

[@jaspermooren5883]

Yeah it's 160% of the base. But that would imply that 98% inflation is actually deflation (since 100% would be no change), which is how nobody in the world uses inflation. Not even their own other numbers (the 4%) works that way, so this is just a very sloppy mistake, particularly since it makes the numbers about 3x as bad as they are. 160% inflation would imply a +160% change, so 2.6x, rather than 1.6x. (but the real number is 1.6x)

[@segiraldovi]

@@jaspermooren5883 They made the mistake, check the pinned comment

[@jaspermooren5883]

@@segiraldovi Yes, that's what I said. That they made the mistake of saying the inflation is 160%, while they ment 160% of the base (so the new price is 160% of what it was, which means the price increased by 60%), which would be +60% inflation, or just 60% inflation, which is how everyone understands inflation.

[@gdf_6c]

The only certain thing that austerity leads to is more austerity. To neoliberals the poor are never poor enough

[@foundationgamer9771]

To us Neoliberals, the poor will be better off in the long run through investments into bussinesses than just funneling money into the poor's pockets now.

[@gdf_6c]

@@foundationgamer9771 - will that happen before or after they die of starvation or treatable diseases due to the defunding of the health system? Asking for an Argentinian friend

[@xFlRSTx]

he's not a neoliberal

[@ZetaMoolah]

@@foundationgamer9771you take away the impoverished peoples’ income, you shrink demand and weaken the economy. What neoliberals do not understand is how expensive being poor actually is. Debt is more expensive, subsistence grocery buying is more expensive, and the nickel and dimes that should go into bettering their lives are eaten by arbitrary fees from businesses that always want more. Neoliberalism has opened the door to corporate oligopolies and oligarchical political control, hence why there has been a wave of political extremes winning seats of power where it was previously impossible. Separate ideology from economics, and divest your identity from your politics and it will be more obvious.

[@gdf_6c]

@@xFlRSTx - as in "Milei is neoliberal on steroids" or "he's actually left wing"?

[@tomtom2806]

I like Argentina, and I hope, that Milei will succeed. His policy can be an example for other countries which are ruined by Keynesianism and statism.

[@Darkstarr-ud2go]

Ummm he is using Keynesian ideas …

[@zemm9003]

What do you mean run out of steam? The Economy has been crashing since he took over. The price index jumped 100 points (from 100 something to 200 something) in the first 3 months of his tenure.

[@123roccos]

The economy has been crashing since the last 13 years. And the high inflation of the first 3 months was because the moronic guy that was the economy minister of the last goverment (and presidential candidate) printed pornogrphic amounts of money to try to win the elections. Not even talking about 13 years of price controls.

[@pepperonish]

I never know what to believe about this guy... 1 day UCN article saying that he's fixing the entire country in the next day. You see that everything is going to hell

[@Kartak965]

It is not working all his followers can tell you is trust the plan or but the previous government, also it goes beyond just the economy when it comes to security his policies are also failing, he has weekly scandals where government officials get replaced daily and all his spending of public funds on frivolous stuff like a millionaire party to mock his opponents.

[@oddmott7653]

After seeing Al Jazeera show half the population living off struggling soup kitchens, I'd have to say say either, 'no it's not working', or 'yes, but at what cost...'

[@stanv9553]

The last goverment in its final days started spending like crazy to see if they could win, now there was literally no other way, no one is lending mony to argentina and we are broke soo...

[@agme8045]

That’s really not true. Argentina is doing just like it always did. Last year, under the previous administration, the poverty rate was already around 50%. Fixing a country’s economy doesn’t automatically lift people out of poverty, specially not when the thing that was keeping people out of poverty was at the very same time destroying the economy. The previous government was making everyone poorer, just to make some people less poor in the short term. That’s actually not helpful, and it’s not addressing the real underlying issues that make people poor, it’s dirty populism.

[@noclipperalta5722]

Yes that half of population under poverty is what peronism had left in the country, they don"t appears spontanously they got empoverish by a system that just care about the interest of politicians, and they were who vote for milei.

[@gabrieldsouza6541]

That’s exactly the type of thinking that got Argentina in this mess. Pain is necessary.

[@CristianmrWuno]

Argentina was already in a slope down. Do you think Argentina out of all countries would scape the Covid pandemic economical crisis?, people are getting poorer globally so it is an obvious faith. The reason why they are like that is because their products are not good enough for foreign investors to invest or buy from it. The only thing that can solve that is Milei doing business with the Chinese for example to boost certain industries to help cut down the prices. After that, a short path towards economical development with other developed economies could help alleviate the issue long term while also modernizing their local industries and maybe formalizing the economy.

[@aum1040]

Absolutely breathtaking that this video claims that lower inflation has not happened, despite even displaying the MoM inflation chart that unambiguously demonstrates that this plank of Milei's plan has been a huge success.

[@ahnegao6009]

If no one have money to buy food there's not demand and therefore no inflation. Argentine people is going to Brazil to buy food. Some cannot go will starve.

[@a.e.m.1452]

we all know why he's not cutting but expanding the military budget - to repress the populace and trade unions

[@thatweatherman4411]

It's only a matter of time before the people finally have enough of him, and they try to do the same thing to him which they did to De la Rua

[@HOI4notsoproplayer]

Its actually because past administrations legt the budget emptied, so if any country gets angry at argentina they could just walk there because they couldnt even pay for ammo, so no its not about repressing its about having something to not die instantly lol

[@el_Contra]

​@@HOI4notsoproplayer the military in Argentina was always used for cou'd etats...

[@peytonmanthing6533]

He’s obviously doing it to get to the 2.0% target set out by nato to further align with the west

[@dannyarcher6370]

Good.

[@crash.override]

Austerity is just a wonkier term for under-investing in the future (see: UK under the Tories). But finding the line between austerity vs. cutting waste/inefficiency/vanity-projects is hard.

[@lewis123417]

Continuing to print inflation into the system is harder

[@TheSandkastenverbot]

It is crucial not to throw all kinds of austerity measures into one basket and compare them all with what Thatcher did. Greece had gone through about a decade of austerity prescribed by the EU and the IMF and are now on a very positive trajectory. Argentina has even more reasons to cut back on government spending, given their exorbitant public sector. So while austerity has often made a sudden crisis worse in an otherwise good economy, it is sometimes necessary in an economy where populist or corrupt governments wasted huge sums of money.

[@lewis123417]

@@TheSandkastenverbot while thatchers austerity was harsh, government finance in the 90s compared to 1979 was night and day difference, it's the groundwork laid by thatcher that enabled to big spend under the Blair years

[@anthonygomez9686]

In this case it's actually necessary, Argentina has been spending way beyond its means for decades.

[@vinniechan]

The austerity is UK is nth compared to many other countries Besides many others are in far worse debt situation than the UK

[@Mankorra_Gomorrah]

One possible reason for increasing military spending is to create a “Peace Keeper Force” a lot of small, economically struggling countries basically export their militaries for peacekeeping missions. Their troops get sent to some god forsaken war zone and the UN pays their homeland big bucks for its trouble. In a lot of cases the US will also support missions with free or cheaper gear and logistical support. He may be hoping that increasing the number of troops, improving equipment and training a bit and then sending them to the UN will pay for itself in the long run. If this sounds familiar it’s because it is the latest evolution in a system that started with condotieri in the Middle Ages leading into the auxiliary system of the 17th century and now to the peace keeping militaries of today. Functionally little has changed but we’ve gone through great lengths to make it look like it changed a lot.

[@marinamunoz7117]

I think that buying outdated military junk from OTAN countries is a way to get in that scene and those contacts for that side of the world, something that was not possible before because we have the Malvinas occupied by an UK operation military base, and the way to get over that, is to give up our right on the Islands like Milei wants. I don't think that 40 years are enough to get over that war, maybe next generation would be friendly and ally with Uk, maybe not.

[@Mankorra_Gomorrah]

@@marinamunoz7117 totally off topic with literally no relevance to the conversation being had.

[@sk-dr8zu]

no nation can earn money out straight from sending peace troops. sending troops on other's soil is nasty business and drives the nation into troubles with multiple fronts. only scenario where sending in troops turns out to be profitable is protecting the strategic interests and strategic asset overseas, like US sending in troops in middle east to stabilize gasoline supply, china sending in troops to protect it's overseas ports, India sending in troops to install puppets on voiceless neighbours. these are the only instances in near past. UN peace force is another subject, it won't earn you anything. it will cost you instead. what you mentioned in your comment is just about how a mercenary operates., a state cannot run a mercenary. BTW the actual reason for increasing the military spending is to feed the arms manufacturers from the north and to integrate the Argentine defence with the north, so the alliance will stay forever. Political, ideological coordination between the two nations won't last for ever, either one will drift away eventually. but a military coordination/integration/alliance will last forever. Countries which bought Soviet weapons still hanging out with Russia, that's how it works. Equipments needs to be upgraded, maintained, troops need to be trained and instructed to operate the equipments, the coordination keeps on going. that's what Milei is preparing the Argentina for, an long-lasting tie with USA.!

[@Mankorra_Gomorrah]

@@sk-dr8zu this just isn’t true. The United Nations has dedicated funds to pay countries that send their troops on peacekeeping missions and the United States also pledges funds for certain missions, as they did with the Kenyan mission to Haiti. These funds are supposed to be used to pay the soldiers and to help pay for replacement equipment and feeding the soldiers and such. But the country that sent the soldiers is the one reporting how much it costs them to feed the soldiers and pay their salaries. If they say it costs them $100,000 to maintain the peacekeeping force but it actually costs them $95,000 they get to just pocket $5,000. A lot of the countries that regularly send peacekeepers are not known for their reliable accounting or lack of corruption. Brazil was the last country in Haiti and both its current and former presidents were known to be corrupt, with those under them probably not being any more discerning. India is another one with a questionable accounting record. It can be difficult to prove or disprove their payment requests and both the US and UN would rather a peacekeeping force exist than not exist so they are willing to throw extra money at the problem than embark on decades long forensic account campaigns against the 2 or 3 countries that were willing to volunteer. Not to mention even with a bit of graft it is still cheaper than the US or Europe doing it themselves with their own forces so again, it’s still a win just slightly more expensive than it could’ve been. This is a known thing, the west just turns a blind eye because they get what they want for less than if they did it themselves so they don’t really care. Plus, these are peacekeeping missions, normally having very little active fighting. It’s rare that these deploy to active war zones and when they do it’s usually western militaries that lead them like the U.S. in the Korean peacekeeping mission. These countries aren’t sending their troops into the Somme or whatever wild fantasy you’ve crafted around the idea, theyre sending them to rural Haiti or something where they just walk around and poison the local water supply before going home.

[@sk-dr8zu]

@@Mankorra_Gomorrah UN peace keeping funding doesn't add any substantial income stream to the country. Peace keeping is undertaken in charity manners till this date, there is no scope for revenue generation, at least for the countries currently involved with sending troops for UN peace missions. For example an average American earns 50,000+ dollars a month, that's the paper figure, in reality it will be higher, the population with such a productive workforce and income will never consider the puny income from the peace missions sustainable. peace missions fund may sustain day to day military funding or some government operations of under developed central African countries, but not for the countries which dream big. I don't think Argentina went that low. BTW greetings from Asia, may Argentina may prosper .

[@FFL3001]

Hey TLDR! Maybe u should put down the Imprint picture book and do some Brilliant courses on how to annualize inflation, eh?

[@kryts27]

If Argentinan governments attempted to liberalize the economy and cutting government borrowing and cronyism a decade ago, then it would have been easier economically to pull that off back then. Now, there are global economic headwinds making it more difficult to turn around.

[@agme8045]

As an Argentinian, people in the comments are right! Instead of electing Milei, we should have reelected the Peronists, and we should have opened a new ministry to fix the ministry of economy 💪💪💪 we should have followed Venezuelas path! They are doing very well I hear, no idea why thousands of Venezuelans still choose to live in Argentina.

[@fazshura]

You're right brother, also Massa said that he was gonna create a digital peso, so he could ad more money to the economy by just typing some numbers in is computer, the inflation could have front 250% to 5.000% (a peronist said that bigger is better) he also said that was important to "regulate social media" and he was right, we currently has to much free speech.

[@Khaoki]

Could've followed Mexico's path. Their economy is humming along while Argentina just found a new way to implode

[@agme8045]

@@fazshura yess!! My wet dream is Massa being supreme leader of Argentina. I wish he had won so the government would ban tweeter, just like they did in Brazil!! One step closer to my even wetter dream of being like Nicaragua and Belarus

[@TheCappucinochannel-os4ne]

​​@@KhaokiMexico is headed for a debt catastrophe in 15 years because their socialists gave people "free" stuff paid for by deficit spending. But when it inevitably happens any faction except socialists will be blamed because "things were so much better under them." Socialist governments are companies and their shareholders are the people. Who cares about long term sustainable growth? We need results now now now.

[@Testimony_Of_JTF]

​​@@KhaokiMexico will not succeed, especially with leftists in power now.

[@jarljohan5502]

i still have hope for milei and argentina

[@marcv2648]

Hope? He's already succeeded. By next year, it will be undeniable even for the haters.

[@thatweatherman4411]

@@marcv2648 Líberborregos hasta en un video inglés

[@airisakura1119]

Funny how he cuts the most important part of his country XD

[@breadfella]

Every "anarcho-capitalist" or right wing "libertarian" who ever gets power loves to "kill the state" when it comes to stuff like healthcare, education, old age care/pensions, research, environmental protections. But when it comes to highways, cops, and the military they always seem to have a change of heart. They dont actually hate the state, they just dont want competition for working class people's money. Theyre fine weilding the state like a club against those they prey upon.

[@Alt300]

Because they can't even afford it , they will reinvest in it once they can get their economy working. The main problem that would bring Argentina EVEN MORE DOWN was the lack of military, and the thing was that investing in military was needed to avoid another crisis or even a civil war. Which would bring the economy even more down.

[@NCSTalkid]

I read their case. And i think this one is social case. Not difficult but very tough to solve and time consuming. Only military strongman can fix their problem and i think took at least 25-35 years to complete and 15 years to transition from strongman directed socioeconomics to market quality democracy based socioeconomics (assuming no foreign intervension)

[@pedrosolermartinez6273]

He’s doing an amazing job

[@PedroCastro-vn8qg]

Argentina will turn into Rapture from bioshock 2

[@omarw3314]

If you are cutting healthcare and education spending before cutting military spending, something’s wrong. Deeply wrong.

[@federicofigueroa3828]

Or you are not from argentina or you just are lying to youself. It was necessary and only touch the corrupt workers of the sector (dont BS me)

[@marinamunoz7117]

He released all that on each Province with no funds for them, maybe at the end of his term maybe 5 provinces would be liveable and the rest new desert zones with very little population.

[@blakepollock8074]

He wants to join NATO it seems, and the minimum for that is 2% of gdp. Also Argentinians think it's a sensible move as the military was actually dismantled and never recovered.

[@ricardomaximus424]

​@@blakepollock8074 This is Milei bs propaganda, everyone knows NATO will never accept a member that claims territory of one of the 5 most important members (Not to mention it's not SATO...). He wants military support because that does wonders for latin politicians, that's how Evo Morales stayed in power for so long.

[@123roccos]

Yeah, the fact that the same universitys that are asking for money because they can't pay yhe bills, are the same giving twerking classes.

[@trowawayacc]

Dude iss sellig the country to foreign interests to get out of bankrumpcy.

[@josephsloop8865]

When countries are recovering from hyperinflation and high inflation, when proper austerity measures are put in place, it takes about a year for the currency to stabilize and GDP growth to resume. Because the Argentinian central bank sold puts on the peso to raise money, the currency couldn't be completely set to market value, for foreign investment to come flowing in and help with the rebound. I'd give Milei at least until January of 2025 to see if Argentina rebounds.

[@ad_astra5]

Ah, as we all know you can cut everything and boost funding for the army. That won’t end badly at all /s

[@dobiqwolf]

Spending more on the army... Is Milei planning for a coup?

[@webaazul2500]

Not completely out the realm of possibility, man's crazy after all; but I think it's more likely that he's worried that those disenfranchised by his administration will do something more than protest his government.

[@FC01]

because argentina is the 8th largest country in the world and has one of the smallest armies in latin america, there are huge parts of the country that are practically unprotected.

[@jonasastrom7422]

@@webaazul2500 How is he crazy? Does being eccentric mean crazy nowadays?

[@wawrzynieckorzen78]

Maybe not a coup, but probably he knows that the things would get worse, so having army on your side is critical: just look how Venezuelan government survives on this strategy.

[@eduardobranco8349]

@@webaazul2500 he doesn't have to. His party is winning the polls anyways. Why would he plan a coup if the people want his party in charge?