Reacting To My 2023 Formula 1 Season Predictions

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Should i do my 2024 F1 Season Predictions before, or after, pre season testing?

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Before

[@TommoMcCluskey]

After

[@laurensk6516]

Both, you are allowed to regret you pre-predictions after testing and change them. After the Seson you can check if your pre-predictions were the better ones afterall 😅

[@JuynBiets]

You should do one in a weeks time or so and also one directly after testing

[@Traxxmaciek]

Before is so much more fun. The unknown

[@rachelkoiks]

Sargeant actually was P21. Liam Lawson got P20. Should there be predictions both before VS. after testing? I know that’ll be possibly too much content of the same thing but it could be interesting

[@thebateman761]

@rachelkoiks maybe he could write down his predictions pre-testing, then make another one post-testing and show both of them in the same cideo

[@Traxxmaciek]

I agree. I think that everyone agrees. What Tommy does is like predicting a match after seeing the first 5min played. You should do it blindly. That’s the whole point

[@TommoMcCluskey]

I guess that'd function as a testing roundup. If I do my predictions pre testing, then that makes sense for sure!

[@privateer2584]

Yuki most improved. Alonso is just showing he's still got it. Yuki is actually getting better.

[@TommoMcCluskey]

The Alpine broke down too much for Fernando to showcase what he has done this year.

[@woutermeeuwsen3284]

@@TommoMcCluskeyYuki is still proving himself to be worth the investment, but with Alonso we already knew he had it in him

[@spaceli0n]

What does Alpine breaking down have to do with Alonso in the Aston?@@TommoMcCluskey

[@macedits-bq3or]

Piastri cler i feel

[@mike04574]

nah

[@paperswansproduction]

You should do predictions before testing, makes accurate predictions more impressive but also gives some funny dodgy ones

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Zhou P11 was a pretty funny post testing prediction though ngl 😅

[@kirbyx2573]

Honestly I think looking back at the pre season predictions is a lot of fun, its just really hillarious how bad/well some aged haha.

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Hulk P16 aged beautifully

[@kirbyx2573]

@@TommoMcCluskey Oh yea no the Hulk prediction aged like fine wine! I do wish he had/will have a better car tho...

[@MrMe2459]

4 to 7 genuinely could have landed in any order, I did not think Charles would be the one to clinch it give he was the furthest back, really thought it would end lando, sainz, nando, charles

[@TommoMcCluskey]

6 points is nothing over a 22 race season, not at the front anyway.

[@trulsdirio]

I like after testing predictions more. Yes, before will be more wild an funny, but you might as well throw dice for predictions at that point. After testing shows how well you interpreted the first outings and actually makes it mean more to me than just a completely random guess.

[@JuynBiets]

13:04 imagine how big the gap would have been between Max and Checo if the other teams were more competitive….

[@TommoMcCluskey]

🤷‍♂️

[@salandit7461]

I actually think it would have been closer. Checo is kinda like a modern day Fisichella. In a midfield car he can extract great performance, in a great car, he can’t seem to do it as much

[@JuynBiets]

@@salandit7461 i don’t think that’s car related but more competition related. When you have F1s golden boy as a teammate it makes it much more difficult compared to having F1s nepo baby

[@finlanderxx]

Albon's interview gave good insight why so much difference between Max and the other driver. At the start of the season, the gap with pace is small, but as the season progresses, Max has the cars sensitivity be increased bit by bit, which makes the car faster, but also lot harder to drive and that's why it's hard for the second driver to drive consistently. It's like having the mouse sensitivity on the computer put on the max

[@CaptainRedbeard.]

​@salandit7461 checo has 1 win in like a decade with midfield cars. He gets in a redbull and wins like 3 races in a year lol. I think you look at Checo in a flattering manner compared to reality.

[@generaldreagonlps6889]

I'd say do predictions after testing. Before testing it's just a random guess based on vibes, not so much a prediction based on some data. And at this one shows it's still difficult enough with the data.

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Less excuses for me to do so appallingly bad too.. 😅

[@kityhawk2000]

I mean I'd say you could reliably make predictions for who will win in 24 and 25 right now. No one is catching Redbull before the next rule change It's as ridiculously optimistic to claim otherwise

[@generaldreagonlps6889]

@@kityhawk2000 Yeah, but basically everything else is a mystery. There are four different teams who could potentially end up in P2 next year.

[@xfreja]

@@TommoMcCluskeyyou can do both, before and after

[@E.Bashmak]

@@kityhawk2000 If Ferrari and McLaren solve their tyre deg issues then the constructors fight is literally open. Bcoz if that is the case and Perez is not stepping up massively - he can at most hope for p5-6. And if Merc become more consistent with their pace plus Russel stopping throwing aways every chance he has...

[@thebateman761]

Considering his perfomance in 2022, theres a shout for daniel as the most improved lmao

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Hmmmm those Mexico & Hungary performances were pretty impressive all things considered tbf

[@jacklinkhorn6507]

Alonso is the answer to bring a fight to max in equal machinery.... the old fashioned mentality the grit and determination he has to prove that age is a just a number and the years of experience behind him as well as the confidence in himself, he is the only driver on the grid to put up a good fight I think

[@andrewcurtis4568]

Scarily the most improved driver in 2023 was Max Verstappen, and he was already a genius.

[@katy4523]

I think you should do this video after testing again. Several teams are already saying they're bringing almost entirely new cars so it'd be interesting to see how they go from that to the development throughout the year.

[@Amm17ar]

Im genuinely so excited to see your "redesigning" series again lol. Im always in a bit of awe how awesome of a job you do redesigning the cars. Cant wait for the car reveals simply to get your videos!

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Very kind, appreciate that! 🙌

[@Skaytrmanuel]

Yuki is a good shout for most improved. He’s gotten better each season while the car has gotten worse and yet we are still able to see the improvement.

[@tanyaghosh1311]

he still made a lot of mistakes this season though. Alphatauri could have gotten p7 in the constructors over Williams with a few less mistakes from yuki. Of course having 3 drivers share the second seat didn't help.

[@chloeebaaker]

as someone who got back into into Formula One mid September after not watching it since 2010 i love seeing the initial impressions the drivers gave before the season officially started

[@hamza-chaudhry]

1:31 Alonso was performing at a high level last year but of course he didn't have a competitive car so it went largely unnoticed. The same thing happened in the last two thirds of this season when people didn't rank his drives highly because the Aston Martin had fallen off.

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Plus it kept braking down.

[@DelaneySeamus]

I'm a simple man, I see a Tommo upload announcement, I sit refreshing KZbin for an hour

[@djtaco2402]

Real

[@daphnelovesL]

Like simple man: Lynyrd Skynyrd

[@TommoMcCluskey]

🫡

[@vladlen-]

Cringe

[@DelaneySeamus]

@@vladlen- so are your videos x

[@devils07trunks]

the gap between Max and Checo is more than the pts Checo scored and Checo finished second. Just amazed with the season Max's had.

[@deeznoots6241]

Also says a lot about how inconsistent Checo has been and how there has been no consistent 2nd fastest car

[@kjdjdhgdhsj8859]

13:15 that's a 10/10 prediction right there 😂

[@Stiruz]

McLaren was the most improved imo. Beat AM in the standings, fought for wins, won a sprint. Can't remember how much they finished on last year tho, but they weren't good.

[@artursruseckis4242]

Just a suggestion. When putting a drivers in table, use the current driver and put him into his position in REALITY side. For example, you predicted Tsunoda in P18, the name gets written in 18th row in PREDICTON (black) table and in 14th position in REALITY (pink) table. That way we do not reveal the positions of drivers that are yet to be discussed, i.e. reality's side P18 remains unknow until we actually get to Zhou. Yes, I know it is probably not that important, since we already (more or less) know the standings, but still - that would make the table filling process a bit more interesting.

[@gustavorubio3638]

Completely agree with you

[@carsonenglis160]

Fun fact, I made some predictions at the beginning of this year, and I only got 2 right, but my average amount of positions off was only 2.8, whereas yours was 3.05 so by that, I was more accurate

[@KevIsOffGrid]

I think you did better than you give yourself credit for, a lot of the right ideas but shows how unpredictable the racing really is. For next year do BOTH maximise that content. Predict before testing, then an after testing - what are you changing on your predictions, and you can even triple it up in the summer break how your doing and can you even change at that point and be closer. Its all content eh? And we like the banter :)

[@liammccoy385]

okay, is saying a rookie for most improved a bit cheap? because if that's allowed, most improved is Oscar Piastri and it's not very close in my eyes

[@boortsy12]

incredible rookie season by fernando. so much potential

[@kcmisulis425]

I hadn't seen this channel before, but I already respect you for going back in time to analyse your predictions and how they realistically held up.

[@wesselsparreboom642]

One of the videos i look forward to the most every year!

[@lukeschmitz2544]

Don’t overestimate Pourchaire. Dude won the championship in his third season.

[@TommoMcCluskey]

1st in French F4 1st German F4 2nd in F3 5th in F2 2nd in F2 1st in F2 🤷‍♂️

[@RendiRetnandito29]

Perez's 290 points difference is actually a big brain move from him to reduce the fee for renewing super license.

[@henrrryyyy]

Tbf it could be interesting to do a "vibes" prediction before testing and then a post-testing prediction Not sure how it could work in terms of a video format.

[@gandalf_thegrey]

Max Verstappen beat Sergio Perez twice with 5 points left the spare. What did we just witness.

[@joostbankert4250]

To me it would not seem that a Steward who faithfully surrenders his charge is diminished in love or in honour.

[@mariolis]

I think its wild that your hairstyle is basically the same as 9 months ago , just a little bit longer and slightly messier now

[@jakobkummernecker]

I would prefer the predictions after testing. It gives an insight but as we have seen this year teams can improve massively so testing doesn’t give everything away and there is still a lot of room for predictions. Also doing the predictions before is just random guessing what happens over the winter and the whole season.

[@Agnt14]

I'd argue that it's MCL who's the most improved team, at least AM was doing good at testing, but look at the papaya bois. They had a very different team at Bahrain and Austria-UK onwards, and that's credit to Lando, Oscar, and especially Andrea Stella and Zak Brown. Aston as much as I like them, really fell off at the second half, while McLaren has the exact opposite of performance.

[@Stefan8u]

Do your predictions after testing, it is better with a slightly educated guess rather than just guessing. I think this is why you did after testing this year as in 22 you did pre testing and it wasn't a very logical video to explain. But love these, it's not about what you get right or wrong, but an entertaining look back at our expectations and hope before the racing begins. You also did better than you gave yourself credit for, predicting 20 drivers in what turned out to be a 22 driver championship is insanely difficult. Maybe do a points finishing predictions video like this and a "vibe check" video, where you say who's gonna go well, win most races, most retirements, most unforced errors, most crashes, quickest and longest pitstops, most race penaltys, most penalty points etc. I'd enjoy it!

[@jeanpage5445]

I honestly can't fault the K mag prediction. Before the season I always thought that K-Mag had the measure of Hulk psychologically. I'm quite surprised by how things went.

[@detmer87]

Statistically the most improved driver is Max Verstappen.

[@StevenQ74]

You certainly did not predict Paul de Vries from Estonia being 22nd in the championship for Trident

[@lukaluka4868]

I predicted Doohan to race once for Alpine because Gasly was 1 or 2 penalty points away from missing a race but that didnt happen

[@LawVS]

Vowles' comments about Logan being "always be a Williams academy driver" are quite telling. I reckon there's a chance of him being bumped to a reserve role.

[@rOlivine]

I think Gasly has stepped up a lot this season compared to the latter half of last season. Fewer mistakes, good quali results and a better ability to convert good qualis into solid points when the Alpine was good enough to be in the top 10. He matched up very well against Ocon when most of us expected Ocon to have the better season. Nice job Pierre.

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Fair shout

[@benny-tv6px]

Driver changes in the middle of the season is something unpredictable, so I would say stick to the original 20 drivers for the season In this case, Zhou is p17, Magnussen is p18, Sargeant is p19 and De vries is p20 and you got the bottom two right

[@calebsiebert694]

Solid vid. Fair play to actually taking a punt and listing out the order 1-20. It's harder than people realize, as you could make a case for a number of drivers to be top-5. But only 5 can be and i respect you putting your name on a list like this. Good fun. I can help your P1 prediction for next year...Max. :)

[@bigbean69420]

do predictions both before and after testing, and end of season. I think it would be hilarious to see how far off your predictions are from pre to post testing, and post testing to end of season 😂

[@Ticklestein]

12:56 - If you’re disappointed uptil now, you have not -but really should- watch Brazil again but through his onboard and radio. That’s the key to having an idea. It will fully change your opinion on his race.

[@anameyoucantremember]

What did Ricc do? I was too busy watching the Alonso -Perez fight

[@aaawac2174]

From beginning to end of the season i would say Sargeant is most improved. His racecraft really got honed in the last 4-5 races.

[@Bearcat299]

Very funny one and like you, I was a long way off.. I predicted BEFORE pre season testing (11 of february to be precise): 1- Max Lewis George (lol) Charles 5-Carlos Sergio Fernando Lando Ocon 10-Gasly Oscar Valterri Lance Zhou 15-Nyck (that one hurt) -Hulk -Mag -Yuki -Alex -Logan I also tried to predicted constructor points ! -RB (500) -Mercedes (450) -Ferrari (400) -Aston (200) -Alpine (200) -McLaren (200) -Alfa (150) -Alpha (50) -Haas (50) -Williams (10) I was expecting a much much closer season with podium from 13 drivers ! (well it was 11, pretty close) I very much underestimated RB and overestimated alpine and Alfa. Pretty happy with the 6 places gap between Fernando and Lance. For Nyck and Yuki, I was not expecting Nyck to be good (but consistent) and the Alpha to be ok and Yuki to be... crash prone and too inconsistent, how wrong I was...

[@Kaspa969]

The Sargeant and De Vries predictions should count as correct. They were P22 and P21. Worst of the drivers that started the season just how you predicted.

[@TheJeremy1489]

You could do the predictions before testing and then do another video after testing where you do a (limited) amount of changes to your predictions. I think this might help you not be too biased based on just testing or just feeling.

[@F1Stuff.]

Hey tommo i would prefer you to do them as early as possible, its just existing to see how unpredictable a season can be, love ur content

[@squelchedotter]

On the topic of suggestions for next time, could you do some sort of subtle audio processing to the old video to make it clearer who is speaking? Doesn't need to be much I think, just a bit of EQ or something for our brains to latch onto and tell who is speaking :)

[@AjaySharma-ox3ct]

My prediction for 2023 was.... (Done after pre season testing) Constructors. Drivers 1 Ferrari 1 Charles 2 Redbull 2 Carlos 3 Aston Martin 3 Max 4 Mercedes. 4 Fernando 5 Alpine. 5 Perez 6 Alfa Romeo. 6 George 7 Hass. 7 Lewis 8 Mclaren. 8 Lance 9 Alpha Tauri. 9 Esteban 10 Williams. 10 Valterri 11 Pierre 12 Kevin 13 Nico 14 Gyanyu 15 Lando 16 Yuki 17 Alex 18 Nick 19 Oscar 20 Logan Really rooting for ferrari🥲🥲

[@jamiecook1522]

Don't think it was the worst predictions last year you got none right

[@michaelthomas9802]

I genuinely remember everytime you set an F1 season prediction for the last 3 years and everytime I was thinking to myslef this guy is taking the piss and hes obviously doing it for the views.

[@loveyoubleu]

the best part of this video is me inquiring about your shirt in the original video in your dms cause i wanted it and getting the answer at the end of the season in this video 😭

[@Nathan-qc4gz]

I'd suggest doing predictions before testing, then do a video after testing and say if you think your predictions will do better, worse, or equal along with your constructors predictions

[@Bruhyeet42069]

Obviously Zhou wasn't the most improved driver. You cannot improve upon perfection.

[@shadowmancy9183]

I think you should do all predictions pre-season, but can change three total after testing. Changed predictions only count for half if they're right.

[@PeteBaldwin]

15:26 - the logic still holds though. We were all under the impression that whilst Newey had obviously figured out what was needed straight away and the other teams didn't, they had a year's worth of data now to make their new cars with so they'll be fine this time... As we saw, some teams copied Red Bull and were immediately much faster. How would it be possible to predict that after a season of complaining about how bad their car was, Mercedes would show up with an evolution of the same design again!? I'd have bet my house on them being cleverer than that.

[@christianwood7516]

As a McLaren fan I remember your predictions and I’m very glad you were proved so wrong in the end 😂

[@snowiblind]

before testing, we want to see your thoughts on the team's current state rather than something we can infer on our own after testing

[@Guilherme4KFPS]

De Vris will also drive for Toyota in WEC 2024 in the Hyper Car class alongside his FE duties.

[@Graham23B]

You should do next season’s predictions Pre-Testing but then after testing you get two wildcards to change two categories and stick with the rest

[@JustinW2980]

I don’t think anyone predicted Max to win 19 races and it almost certainly would have been 20 if Imola happened.

[@chrissawyer6034]

Thx for a great season Tommo!! I say next season predictions come pre-testung!!

[@hamza-chaudhry]

I don't think it matters *that* much if you do your 2024 predicitions before or after pre-season testing because, as this season has shown, development is almost as important as the car you start out with

[@johanneshafner3968]

The correct metric to judge list like this is by counting the share of pairs of drivers whoose order you get right. Example with three drivers: Prediction: A,B,C Reality: A,B,C -> 3/3 (A/B, A/C, B/C) Reality: B,A,C -> 2/3 (A/C, B/C) Reality: B,C,A -> 1/3 (B/C) Reality: C,B,A -> 0/3 The last case is the worst, even though you have one position correct. Predicting the exacte reverse order of reality is the worst prediction though. Added advantege, this is not affected by the two additional drivers not in your prediciton.

[@borandiUK]

Most improved? Piastri.

[@bkbaughn]

Tommo, I think you learned something this year... I believe you should still make your predictions after preseason testing but this time take into account the teams and the capability you see of them bringing upgrades that can bring the car up the table... For instance... If Haas is last in preseason testing... Well you can book it they will most likely be last based on their history.... However if say Ferrari are at the back maybe you give then some benefit of the doubt depending on how you feel... for me I would say Ferrari would move up in speed because I trust in Vasseur...

[@AlexAlex-rf8hm]

You watching testing before predictions is not a problem, the issue is that you didn’t consider team development dynamics at all

[@teamrainbow7674]

I thought I made a bold and at one point of the season a genius prediction, when I predicted that De Vries was gonna finish 21st. My reasoning was thinking that Stroll was gonna miss the first race and Drugovich getting some points, obviously that didn’t happen but somehow De Vries still managed to end up even lower than I predicted..

[@konos3951]

I agree with @adamkenny - do both! We get double the "lets see how badly Tommo botched it" content! ;) If you're only going to pick one though I would say do it after. Gives you a MUCH better chance of at least being remotely close.

[@thatsawrap5235]

I think part of the reason you were surprised by Alonso this year was that he did better at Alpine than you think. In 2022, he had the equivalent of 9 DNFs and realistically lost out on 60 points from where he was running. Should have been ahead of Norris in 2022 if he had equivalent reliability to Ocon.

[@Orrsum]

Surely we’re getting the livery,overalls and HELMET rankings from across the season. Plsss

[@cyancut21]

The give a like for Minton card always gets me Well played good Sir

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Expert emotional manipulation

[@insAneTunA]

I also thought that it was going to be more difficult for Red Bull in 2023. And for the next season I think the same. It is simply too hard to imagine that Red Bull would be able to better their 2023 results in 2024. And I also think that Toto Wolf would spontaneously combust if Red Bull is going to do that anyway 🤣There will be kids out there who think that it is just normal what Max and the Red Bull team achieved this 2023 season, but it is an absolutely amazing achievement in this sport. Winning a single Grand Prix is already a big thing for any driver, and there are many drivers from the past who could not even do that. So it is far from normal to win 86% of all the Grand Prix races in a single season. I am looking forward to next year. There are still records that can be broken. And I would not mind at all to see Max and Red Bull do just that. 👍

[@chadryerson52]

Please do it before testing I actually think testing will be misleading and if anything this season showed all the possibilities with car development so it would be awesome predicting something like Williams getting P6 and starting off horribly but improving to P6 by the end, would be more exciting and impressive if gotten right

[@tomhutchins7495]

People keep talking up Sargent, which I can only assume is on the basis of his junior career and the desire to see an American driver. As someone who never gets to see the junior categories, I haven't really seen anything to make me think he's better than say a Stroll. He's probably a trade-up from Latifi though.

[@DaveZ13]

I think biggest improved team is gotta be McLaren as they def weren't fighting for podiums last year 🤔

[@johnm8224]

That meal-deal is a banger! Especially if you got Clubcard Prices 50p discount!

[@fernandoalonso.]

most wholesome content on youtube. Makes my day everytime you upload 🙌🙌🙌

[@WebsterFranklin]

Always enjoy this video at the start and end of each year. I did my list along with you at the start of the season. I got 2 correct (Max P1 and Zhou P18). I did however have 7 drivers at either +1 or -1. Let's do it before testing this year!

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Not bad at all Webster, put me to shame!

[@nicolasdiazjimenez3556]

i think qualy performance should be taken in consideration waaay less given that for example with carlos and charles its true that leclerc beat him by a lot in qualy, but to be able to score the same amount of points from behind in the grid has more value to me tbh as a racing driver

[@suiyan6297]

Alpine and their drivers. Is there a way for you to be any more of an embodiment of the number six? Like, it is the perfect six, as individual drivers, 11 and 12, from the sixth team, giving even more emphasis of being the sixth best team. The absolute land of no one.

[@steveneiffel8227]

I love those videos that make you humble and some are straight fun to see back. 😂

[@TommoMcCluskey]

Nothing like a good humbling

[@bonkerr]

you should do predictions before, after and midway through the season

[@louis-marlowe]

De Vries is also driving the #7 Toyota GR010 Hypercar this coming year - realistically could become a Le Mans winner

[@janhonig7785]

I liked for the dog, Istayed for the good content. keep it up!

[@blueredlover1060]

Albon is a better driver than the car shows. I wouldn't go so far as to say that he's one of the best drivers on the grid, but in a more competitive car, he probably is closer 8 than 12. Plus, Albon basically got Williams their P7 on his own.

[@hugolouessard3914]

Ocon and Gasly were obviously the closest teammates on all criteria imaginable. Sainz was close in points thanks to his consistency and to Charles' horrible luck, but Charles was one real step ahead in terms of pace. Yes Carlos won a race, he did great that week-end, but overall it's pretty clear who's been better to me. Whereas Ocon and Gasly were really evenly matched. Both were unlucky, Ocon having the reliability issues and Gasly being often screwed by the SC and strategies, but it's like 52-48 to Gasly in my opinion. Really close. And btw you should do the predictions BEFORE testing.

[@brady1045]

That’s the most British meal ever I have no idea what any of those foods are 😂

[@bobmcgod5214]

Tommo tactically forgetting to say he predicted Ferrari to win the Constructors Title

[@thesamaffliction1572]

I think 2024 prediction should be filmed before testing but drop it after and in the conclusion you have say 3 changes allowed based on what you saw

[@Hazry]

i expect meal deal review to become a series during the off season

[@florisbackx1744]

I prefer a prediction after testing otherwise it really just trowing stuff against the wall and see what sticks.

[@edvinuddas8124]

Did you know that Max could have stoped driving after the summerbrake but still become the champion

[@gene7887]

I have to admit pre-season I was high on de Vries and down on Yuki. I still don't see Yuki ever really earning the senior RB #2 seat but he's acquitted himself well against Ricciardo. Lawson is the one to keep an eye on, he was impressive as hell.

[@joaquincoronel342]

I think yuki in a more midfield team would be nice, I’m all for that yuki prop but I agree that he didn’t show RB #2 levels. He’s definitely my most improved this season!

[@BLENDITE]

Do one before and one after next year, and then compare the ones before and ones after

[@gabehorn69420]

“What is Max’s weakness at this point?” Little did Tommo know, that was only 10% of his power

[@kityhawk2000]

All drivers show weaknesses when put under sustained pressure. The difference with Max now is there is no one there to apply any pressure.