Trading the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

AXIA elite trader Demetris Mavrommatis executes risk-off trades in Oil, S&P and Bund, as a tweet from a Washington correspondent saying that Putin has made a final decision to invade Ukraine according to US officials, sends markets into panic mode.
In this video, Richard, AXIA’s Head of Training & Development, takes a deep-dive analysis of Demetris’ trading execution, analysing his thought process and expanding on the methodology and sequence of action when executing trades in global macro & geopolitical events. More specifically he discusses the process of:
1) building up the positions using the price action of the most theme-sensitive markets
2) managing the trades as the news gain traction by closely watching correlations in real-time to define when to add to positions, when to exit positions etc
3) being aware and alert on a possible news denial and narrative shifting, and ready to execute aggressively if the original news are played down or denied
The event took place on 11 February 2022 when a PBS News reporter broke the news in a tweet, reporting that Putin has made the final decision to invade according to US officials. At the time, although there was a very significant Russian military build-up along the Ukraine border, Russia kept reiterating that it had no plans for an invasion of Ukraine so such an event was not fully priced in the markets.
As the tweet hit, Demetris started building long positions in Oil and Bund, while selling the S&P and the Russian rouble. As the news gained traction, broad risk-off dominated the markets with risk assets selling off whilst Oil and safe-haven assets rallied aggressively as the markets started pricing in the chances of an imminent invasion.
Half an hour later, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan held a press conference at the White House. While he expressed heightened concern about the situation, he did not indicate that the final decision had been taken by Putin and he downplayed the previously reported news saying that it does not accurately reflect the US government’s view. As a result, the markets retraced some of the original risk-off moves, although the market relief was relatively short-lived.
In the video, we see how an elite trader executed the original risk-off moves, how he managed the trades as news gained traction to extract a very significant P&L out of the markets, and finally how he reacted to Sullivan’s wind-back comments executing a smash & grab trade across several markets.
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00:00 - Intro
02:36 - Market Context & Scenarios
05:58 - Trading Execution breakdown
08:20 - Tweet - "Putin has decided to invade Ukraine"
09:39 - Building the positions
15:33 - Analysis of initial moves in Oil, Bund and S&P
18:16 - Locking profits as moves accelerate
21:46 - Sullivan Press Conference
25:23 - Execution of Sullivan's "denial"
28:26 - Summary of trading execution
30:35 - Key takeaways
#DayTrading #Trading #oil
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Contacts:
Demetris Mavrommatis - Co-Founder, Head of Trading
Alex Haywood - Co-Founder Head of Strategy

[@AxiaFutures]

Register now for your FREE training with us: go.elitetraderworkshop.com/Free

[@donsak111]

Launch the ''Demetris Futures Hedge Fund'' already...Seriously the guy is on another level:)

[@benmaxinm]

Great as always!

[@euandersonalves]

That is it. Another great trading lesson from my Professor Demetris

[@AxiaFutures]

Glad you like it Anderson ;-)

[@yonatanalony4233]

thank you so much for this great content!! may i ask how do you determine what the target price is?

[@googiek9351]

No words, Can't thank enough for the preciousness!

[@albertlabos8400]

Excellent. Very well explained indeed.

[@albertlabos8400]

Yes, very well constructed and explained tactical strategy dependent upon conditions of uncertainty.👍

[@Kloutkulture]

May I ask. Why does he enter multiple markets at once vs just one market with more size?

[@1998trades]

Q.A question: Is it a viable approach to include market reading based on the historical volatility of the market at certain levels in the past? Of course, with a profound understanding of the past market context as well, at the specific interest points.

[@AxiaFutures]

Thanks for the question. Can you elaborate bit more on your question? Specifically, what do you mean by historical volatility? Range expansion, volume expansion, reaction of the level, initiative of the level, responsivness/absorption at the level?

[@1998trades]

@@AxiaFutures well, honestly i would like to refer to all of what you've mentioned but i guess that would be the answer itself to my question 😂But yes, more so regarding the participants reactions at certain past levels, using a heatmap for example( seeing how order-walls were used to be placed at certain levels and in certain conditions and if the curent market condition could find *corelations to a past behaviour*. It's true that the live orderflow is the true state of the market but i wondered if the hystorical orderflow could make an edge as well. Thanks for reading!