Ukraine can face a bigger Russian army

[@Domesticated_Ape]

Thank you Anders. I saw some depressing interviews on the BBC regarding Kursk where Russian civilians were asking “why is this happening to us? We just want to live in peace.” Apparently completely oblivious to the fact their country repeatedly invaded Ukraine and has completely demolished many Ukrainian cities. I wonder if it is even possible for Russian society to realise they are the aggressors here.

[@maritaschweizer1117]

There was not much resistance in Germany during ww2 and the same is now under Putin. The propaganda in both cases is doing a good job.

[@jaro551]

Don't underestimate the capabilities of the russian population to be willingly ignorant. Of course they know. How naive of you to think they don't understand what is happening when they see soldiers everywhere, trenches being made and them not being able to go near the border. The only thing they don't understand as you said is "why is it happening to us?"... as long as it's not them they don't care.

[@Hebdomad7]

In Russia, the war in Ukraine is spoken of as a distant conflict outside if Russia and nothing the civil population needs to worry about. Putin would have liked the war to have been reported like US media reported the first Gulf War, as a distant winnable but essential use of military force. Unfortunately his three day special military operation didn't go to plan like the last time he seized territory off Ukraine. Ukraine seizing Russian territory makes it impossible for Putin to use the 'distant conflict' narrative anymore. It also gives Ukraine significantly more leverage at the negotiating table.

​@@jaro551I agree

[@worldhum]

​@@jaro551Inside Russia on KZbin said when he tries to talk to his fellow Russians they say "I don't want to know."

[@greenling.]

This must be the third video in a row that provides some nuance and some considerations to the situation that I didn't find with any other commenters or analysts of the war. This is why this channel is so important! No hype, much nuance, clear analysis rather than wishful thinking. Thank you!❣

[@patricknorton5788]

Absolutely. There are some other good channels on this topic, but Anders is maybe the best.

[@Londaer]

One thing mentioned by Perun, is that the various red lines have now been thoroughly blown through, so Ukraines allies should be less timid with regards to the limits they have imposed on themselves. That alone is of subtantial value.

[@Nope-w2h]

Slavs think different then the west you should not assume you know what they will do...

[@EdT.-xt6yv]

Effects of war on closer population to the war zone ?

[@nubilan]

Perun is a Slav.

[@maritaschweizer1117]

​@@Nope-w2hit does not matter what slaves think, it matters what options they have in war.

[@dowgy177]

​@@maritaschweizer1117don't fix your typo, it makes your comment even more relevant

[@jandone100]

Thanks for the video, Anders. Very informative. Thank you for preparing it for us.

[@thedownwardmachine]

"If you insist on having a food fight, then we insist on having it at YOUR house."

[@Dante-fk4yi]

You want free food 😮

[@gagaplex]

Oh, if only wars were replaced by food fights.

[@charlesmtombeni-h2b]

😂😂😂😂well said friend 🎉

[@Yes-bk9cl]

Bah!

[@5pp000]

Given that the Russians are already (reportedly) digging trenches some distance back from the current line of contact in Kursk, maybe their plan is to man those mostly with conscripts, but to keep them in a defensive mode to limit casualties. This would mean accepting the Ukrainian incursion, for the time being, rather than trying to reverse it.

[@billytheweasel]

They probably don't want to leave the incremental gains they're making in the south and east. F-16's may be a consideration.

[@Lilitha11]

@@billytheweasel Putin finds the land in the south and east more valuable. Because that is the land he is trying to steal. He probably figures he can get Kursk back later. In the mean time if some Russians die or lose their homes, he couldn't care less.

[@andrewmcalister3462]

Also, entrenched troops in defence require far less in the way of military equipment (eg. tanks) and training than trying to attack. Sounds like the most economical plan, while maintaining the ability to attack in Donbas?

[@colin8696908]

It will probably be a little of both, were they don't fully give it to them but also don't let them expand further.

[@petehowett2854]

THEY are being " CORALLED" into a 10kms are,where they are being ILLIMINATED.

[@philjameson292]

The local population of Kursk dont seem very interested in protecting their country and Russians from other regions don't seem to have any concerns about the people from Kursk So it would seem to be an uphill task to motivate the population to give up their kids to fight

[@maritaschweizer1117]

There is no need to motivate anybody. It is enough if they have no posibility to resist. Hitler could send 14 year old kids to the front.

[@oliveryt7168]

"seem" Are you Russian? Do you live in Russia? You're basically speculating...

[@philipwaters5043]

What can civilians with no military training or equipment do against a modern military force?

[@ankalagon45]

@@philipwaters5043look what ukrainians did when russia on the way to kiev

[@philjameson292]

@@philipwaters5043 look back to Feb 22 when Russia was advancing on Kyiv. People were out making petrol bombs, improvised tank traps etc. Guns were being handed out to men with previous military service Ukrainians also went out enmasse to physically block Russian convoys in a peaceful manner

[@MsLittleChristine]

Thank you!

[@nohphd]

Thank you for sharing your insights. Always exciting and rewarding when you post!

[@richardtait2465]

Thanks!

[@ChristianThePagan]

He is right. The limiting factor on Russia’s ability to expand their forces is equipment, not manpower. If they raise a bigger army they will have to equip a bigger army, which they can’t do and that will lead to huge casualties among badly trained and equipped conscript units.

[@public.public]

A white flag is the only way for Russians to vote against Putin. dictators are not leaders.

[@gaborszabo3110]

Manpower is also a limiting factor, these regimes are very brittle, mass protests (or even a civil war) can start anytime, just look at the prigo uprising... there were much more repressive regimes in history than putin's and those regimes sometimes were swept away by huge uprisings literally within even hours if not some days and of course russians will not be very happy if their sons are dragged to the frontline to get killed... that's how it works very often

[@igorbednarski8048]

manpower is also an issue. Russia might have a lot of able-bodied men that technically could get drafted, but the only reason Putin's regime still exists is because the enormous casualties are contract soldiers. Had all of the tens of thousands killed in Bakhmut, Avdiivka and so on been conscripts from Moscow and St Petersburg, not Wagner volunteers, prisoners and contract soldiers from Chelyabinsk - there would have already been a revolution months ago. There really isn't that much active, enthusiastic support for the war or Putin in general, probably something like 70-80% of those that support him only do so on the condition that they're left alone and can live their lives not being bothered with politics. Once they and their loved ones start getting blown up the regime becomes critically endangered

[@JewTube001]

@@igorbednarski8048 Regime? So if Putin goes Russia joins NATO or something? Because if not Russia has to keep fighting regardless if Putin is in power or not.

[@vikkoro]

@@JewTube001 Russia only needs to withdraw its army from Ukraine to stop the war. And that’s a big question if Russians are all that ready to send their children to die for something that doesn’t belong to Russia

[@mivapusa]

Bigger army means bigger strain on already shambling logistics.

[@vodkaman1970]

Yes, useless troops need the same amount of food, water, fuel, accommodation, sanitation, laundry etc., so when resources get shared out more thinly it just causes a loss of morale across the board.

[@MrKakibuy]

Yes, this is why 250 thousand sounds unrealistic.

[@yyyy-uv3po]

The 16-30 years old slice is already a hollow in their age pyramid (like many countries). This will only make it worse. And despite that fact, I'm willing to bet that there will be no substantive resistance from the people.

[@UltraRealTrueJesus]

if in a directt 1-1 like thattt sure. but realistically if putin used the conscripts as the "army" to oppose the invading Ukrainians then they'd be having tthe same resources as the people who are civilians. so if tthere is resources in cities would be utilized by forces of the homeguard instead. it'd be the exactt same tacttic Ukraine used tto increase their numbers.

[@UltraRealTrueJesus]

if in a directt 1-1 like thattt sure. but realistically if putin used the conscripts as the "army" to oppose the invading Ukrainians then they'd be having tthe same resources as the people who are civilians. so if tthere is resources in cities would be utilized by forces of the homeguard instead. it'd be the exactt same tacttic Ukraine used tto increase their numbers.

[@NobbsAndVagene]

It is a good day when Anders shows up to explain things. Hello, Anders! Hope you're doing well.

[@yomismo6969]

In this nice equation there is a "small" problem that nobody talk about: The economy... If you mobilice more people you will need more equipment that means you have to increase your output...If you have already a shortage of skilled people to produce your goods, imagine if you deplete your workforce by sending it to the front and you need more manpower to produce. Also, who is going to take care of the maintenance of trains, electricity, dams etc. In Ukraine the goods (arms and other things) are supplied by outside workers. Stalin won because the U.S supplied him with a lot of arms and other things but nobody talk about it.

[@hintermwaldbauer]

​@@yomismo6969very good, i agree

[@GregMoylan-pn6sr]

@@yomismo6969 ...and the cost of labour soars due to scarcity, driving runaway inflation, as otherwise productive young men are consumed by the war machine.

[@NobbsAndVagene]

@@skodbruger5344 It took me literally 5 seconds to find out what kind of person you are: the type of Russian sympathizer / troll who spreads misinformation and propaganda. It's on your channel. Why are you even here? No, wait, don't answer that. Just piss off.

[@NobbsAndVagene]

@@skodbruger5344 Except he is frequently right and also qualifies his statements by saying when something is a guess, or simply what he _thinks_ might be going on (based on available information/evidence), mr. Russian sympathizer. The propaganda you've uploaded to your channel betrays your allegiance.

[@AirB-101]

We can always count on Mr. A. P. N. to cut through the noise and provide a clear no non sense analysis. Thank you Sir!

[@larsrons7937]

So true, and unbiased as well. And he never fails to make it clear if soemthing is just his own opinion. Pure, clean analysis.

[@dioghaltasfoirneartach7258]

He didn’t get it right, this time, though.

[@dioghaltasfoirneartach7258]

He was right on the money, though, with his razor-sharp theories on how ruzzia's stupid Charkiv 'offensive' completely backfired on the ruzzians. He was the 1st to see that. Impressive.

[@larsrons7937]

@@dioghaltasfoirneartach7258 Back in late 2021, months before the fullscale invasion started, Anders predicted that the russians would invade fullscale and at the end of the 2022 China Winter Olympics (which ended on 20th February 2022). We now know that the russian military, when briefed and ordered to invade, had to postpone the invasion for a few, at least 3-4, days because a certain part of the equipment (vehicles etc.) needed urgent visits to maintenance facilities before they could be of any use in the operations. On the 23rd the army started moving and crossed the border early on the 24th. The typical state of the russian army and their equipment prevented them from actually starting the invasion on the originally planned date. Anders' prediction was spot on!

[@felcofb4750]

One of the most deep and clear analisys I had ever heard. Thank you Anders from Italy, keep going.

[@annemcleod8505]

Really excellent, plausible arguments lucidly explained. No fear mongering, no wishful thinking. Much appreciated, thank you.

[@TheEVEInspiration]

LOL. Grow a brain, it is only accelerating the downfall of Ukraine. They gained northing, are NOT taking more ground, gained no strategic advantages, lost a LOT of their best soldiers and equipment. It is a total failure.

[@charleswalker2484]

'no wishful thinking' lmao yea check back on this in a week

[@maryginger4877]

Russia has 100K mobilized and trained troops in the Belgarod/Kursk/Summy region... meanwhile the Eastern Front is close to collapse.. "no wishful thinking"

[@jstogdill]

@@maryginger4877is your name really Mary? 🙄

[@maryginger4877]

@@jstogdill I'm married.

[@pavloskoropadsky1448]

This is the first time I've heard the escalation argument in a fine manner; no panic, no defeatism, no showing the Russians as an unstoppable force. Commander Nielsen knows how to explain things the way they should be explained.

[@madgavin7568]

An escalation of the war may unfortunately be necessary for NATO countries to put more effort into assisting Ukraine materially. The aid they've been giving them over the past few years has been token at best; enough to keep Ukraine in the fight but not enough for them to potentially win the war. Also, even though Russia will be bringing in more forces to bear into the conflict, that too will put further strain on their war economy, which is not sustainable in the long-term.

[@freedomfighter22222]

It really is just because most people don't try to understand what they are reading/hearing, it should have been obvious to anyone that wanted to know for the past 2 years that Russia does not have the capability to escalate anymore. That ball has been in the Ukrainian field which is why this invasion of Kursk was done once Ukraine felt like it is in a strong position and should start pushing for Russia to burn men and materiale even faster so Russia loses the war faster. Big news organisations suck at explaining complex matter(of course, that is because they know their audience doesn't want to understand it only read one paragraph/sentence that gives them an answer), meanwhile mainstream media like Twitter, Reddit, KZbin, etc are all drowned in morons, defeatists, Russians and some actual useful information, but because people don't want to think they can't figure out who is sharing useful information and who is a moron. Escalation was explained perfectly fine in the past, but people that don't want to think don't know if Anders or History Legends is the genius or moron so they read the headlines of both and think "well those disagree but I have heard Russia was a big threat to Europe 40 years ago so Russia must be winning".

[@frankstonrat]

@@madgavin7568 Harris needs to win the US election for Ukraine to have a chance of getting all the weapons it needs. I think she will win.

[@johnboluski-zl1qn]

​@@madgavin7568Can not disagree with your line of thinking. Very logical in my opinion.

[@charleswalker2484]

this is massive cope

[@Squidaddle]

As usual, your analysis is the best on the Internet.

[@VladVexler]

Outstanding analysis, thank you so much Anders!

[@artlew6547]

From Eastern European perspective: my eyes and ears are bleeding from how many mistakes I have seen in that video. You guys don’t understand russia at all, why do you try to explain something what you have zero clue about?

[@JayMaverick]

UA is forcing Poohtin's hand. In other words, forcing the bully to react. Bullies hate that. That's why this is wonderful. 😎

[@ZoomZoomMX3]

You must be high. Only thing USA wants Putin to do is get out of Ukraine

[@garnertempest4069]

UA = Ukraine Army, put that reefer away. ​@@ZoomZoomMX3

[@lynet9849]

Hahaha. Yeah, put that blunt down homie. Ps. First I saw it like a US too. But what do I know, I just put the J down too. 😂😂😂

[@customfantasyhotwheels]

Finally, somebody else that spells its name [similar] the way I do😄 I always spell it as " P O O T I N ", but "Poohtin" works for me, too🤝🏼

[@barroucamara7989]

Tu verras ce que va faire Poutine, si les américains et leurs valets européens n'ont pas pu c'est Zelesnky qui va y arriver, les néonazis ukrainiens seront punis et tu verras la suite de tes yeux et surtout ne déprime pour le sort des nazis ukrainiens.

[@Mark_Kiwi]

thanks so much for your analysis Anders

[@Princip666]

Let's hear about the successes of the Kursk operation some more, shall we? I'm really interested in what exactly did it achieve and how it's good for Ukraine.

[@alexiskiri9693]

Thanks, Anders. Level-headed and as informative as always.

[@chrystya]

Thank you. Excellent job.

[@Zlurc]

Tack Anders för dina balanserade och sakliga analyser. Ser fram emot nästa!

[@ingemarsjoo4542]

Håller med. Anders definitivt är en av de skarpaste hjärnorna när det gäller att analysera det här kriget.

[@mesiroy1234]

Good guy but not shrpsed He think in wesren mindeat potuin dodnt think about politc and whay the civlian he think , he has miilon of brianwashd russian​@ingemarsjoo4542

[@mesiroy1234]

And I know cusse I am idf

[@31redorange08]

He's not Swedish, dude.

[@ingemarsjoo4542]

@@31redorange08 I never claimed that.

[@PopskisPrivateExpeditions]

Good analysis, always appreciated. I would think another factor is related to morale and hope. The incursion into Kursk breaks the narrative of a stalemate that was increasingly demoralizing Ukraine and, to an extent, their western backers. This incursion, breaks that and gives Ukrainians a morale boost. As Napolean said, "The moral is to the physical as three is to one."

[@Markle2k]

I’ve seen more than one soldier say, “now we are doing what we want to do!”, in regard to bringing the fight to Russia instead of just trading land for lives.

[@mikemurphy5898]

Bonaparte or Dynamite?

[@arthurmoore9488]

Even excluding morale, it directly counters the "show us results" crap from some politicians and idiots. It's easy to tell the 2nd because they complain about Ukraine doing this while still loosing territory.

[@Jagonath]

@@arthurmoore9488 Anti-Ukraine westerners make me sick.

[@BigDsGaming2022]

wars for profits always have backers

[@markdeckard7651]

"Create dilemmas for the enemy, not problems." - Ryan McBeth

[@gekolizzard]

I have been trying to remember who said that.

[@ACME_Kinetics]

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face” - Ryan McBeth

[@istikagaragesale7118]

​@@ACME_KineticsFalse it was Mike Tyson. Ryan is nothing.

[@Princip666]

Citing Brainrot McDoublechin is the saddest thing I saw this year.

[@nicolaasstempels8207]

@@istikagaragesale7118 IIRC, RyanMcBeth was even mentioning he cited Mike Tyson.

[@falconnm]

Great analysis! So many of your points are ones I have been waiting for someone to make. Forcing Russia to defend their entire border is critical. Causing casualties and captured troops amongst the conscripts is a strategic move. The one other point that no one seems to be making is that Ukraine was "playing a losing hand of cards", Russia has a bigger economy/population, is out mobilizing and has more equipment than Ukraine. They needed to change the game. "Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results"

[@rafb145]

This guy is mostly clueless keeps repeating what all the bs that other main stream media says

[@chadbrad8100]

@@rafb145 He sees both sides not sure what u on about

[@stap1er]

NATO needs to step up deployments along the Finnish-Baltic borders. Forcing Russia to respond in kind, or lose face.

[@geoffgill5334]

Kind of redundant in that the Russians have already reduced their forces on the Finnish and Baltic borders by 80%... they have sent them and their equipment to Ukraine

[@arthurmoore9488]

@@geoffgill5334 Unfortunately, Russia is almost certainly correct that NATO is never going to attack first. Plus, something like that doesn't cost Putin much in terms of loosing face.

[@mrdwets8952]

@@arthurmoore9488 Obviously NATO wont initiate because its a defensive alliance.

[@FiadhaichCruaidh]

NATO (those who dare) could conduct small operations on various russian coastal areas, similar to a little known Operation by the US Marines on the island of Choiseul, near Bougainville, in 1943. That could force russia to deploy troops to the remote coastal areas in question. Troops desperately needed in Ukraine...

[@flampagan1994]

@@FiadhaichCruaidh raids from NATO is just straight up agression, that would be a massive win for Russia, Putin would be able to prove that the west is agressive and could fully mobilize.

[@absolutlynobody]

Tak Anders, har ventet på din analyse om dette. Hilsen Lars 👍

[@erikm9768]

its spelled absolutely, danish viking ;)

[@absolutlynobody]

@@erikm9768 Hæhæ... ja det kunne der være noget om 😁

[@erikm9768]

@@absolutlynobody :D

[@emmanuellobo9260]

All Bull 🐂 st

[@dsludge8217]

​@emmanuellobo9260 yes, Russia is. 😂

[@jaapvandijk5550]

100% agree with this analysis. The only “predictable” behaviour on the part of Putin is that he escalates whenever confronted with a deteriorating strategic situation. Sadly a lot more blood will be spilled before this madness ends

[@mikemurphy5898]

The closer war or hardship gets to the Capitol the less Putin will have latitude to escalate. Putin's one true fear is not the West or the war in Ukraine but his own population.

[@madgavin7568]

@@mikemurphy5898 Russia's population is depoliticized at the moment and the people living in the major cities aren't feeling the adverse effects of the war. It'll be some time before that happens, if at all. If/when it does happen though, Putin will have reason to worry.

[@petehowett2854]

​@@mikemurphy5898Well,HE SURE AINT SCARED OF THE WEST,cause he has all ALL,of the " SO CALLED" western leaders,IN HIS BACK POCKET

[@ZoomZoomMX3]

If he was replaced so much Russians could be saved

[@niallodonnell7827]

True but that doesn't negate the Ukrainian decision to invade Russia. In fact it offers Ukraine a relatively easy territory gain while it forces Russia to go on the offensive to remove them during which time Ukraine can make them pay the huge price in manpower like they have been doing. As Anders says there Russia then have to keep troops along their whole border to defend against another attack from Ukraine so that his bigger army will not count as much. There are no downsides for Ukraine really.

[@edwardlangton5302]

Good day sir.. love your work.. delivering the facts as they are.. God bless Ukraine 🇺🇦 and grant them victory... from Singapore 🇸🇬

[@volkerr.]

Remember Prygozhyn? When he marched on Moscow? There were not many people trying to stop him 😊 Im Gegenteil. Viele haben seinen Soldaten zugejubelt. 😅😊

[@iljapershin7961]

was soll das heißen? sie haben ihn zugejubelt weil er wiederholt zu einer aggressiveren strategie gegen die ukraine aufruf, nicht weil er putin und seine kriegsmaschinerie stürzen wollte, das weißt du schon oder?

[@Watcher-ts3ql]

Und das beste jetzt? Die Ukrainer kann Lukaschenko nicht einfach anrufen, um sie vom Marsch nach Moskau abzubringen😂😂😂

[@Kokoda144]

I have been eagerly waiting for this analysis

[@southend26]

I've been relying on your updates for a while. Great analysis. Thanks!

[@shshh4929]

You bring a lot of logic and clarity to confused and chaotic events

[@johnscott9979]

Great strategic analysis. Thank you.

[@morgansmit8564]

Thank you Anders!

[@jesperpadkrpetersen7604]

Thank you 👍 I’ve always wondered where a Russian revolution might originate. Historically, they’ve been led by conscripted armies who, unwilling to die at the front, turned their weapons against their masters. Could this be why Putin has kept conscripts out of the fighting until now?

[@Ulfcytel]

Also conscripts are taken from the whole of Russian society, including St Petersburg and Moscow. Not volunteers recruited from more marginal regions, where the political pressure is less.

[@JL-tm3rc]

Stalin was way worse and nothing happened

[@jesperpadkrpetersen7604]

@@JL-tm3rc Good point. But he was up against Hitler, like the zar was facing of Napoleon before that. Both invaded the Russian heart lands, burned down the homes and killed the families of the ordinary Russian people. Surrender was not really an option. Most men will fight in that scenario. I don’t think Ukraine plans to march on Moscow.

[@jamegumb7298]

​@@jesperpadkrpetersen7604Even if they did, note that Wagner did not get a lot of pushback. In fact they even got a lot of help.

[@maryginger4877]

Ukraines entire army is majority conscripts.... In Russia its illegal to deploy conscripts , so I guess Ukraine is going to have a revolution and maybe get rid of the Nato Nazis.

[@Mortenlu.kungfu]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇩🇰 🇺🇦

[@SweetJesus83]

Great analysis Anders. The volunteer army and contract soldiers now get huge sign-up bonuses and extras. This will not be the case for the conscripts (I think...). Maybe this will lead to additional tension within the RU military?

[@mikemurphy5898]

Not much good if you don't live to spend it...

[@Desperado070]

@@mikemurphy5898 Nonsense, you not poor yourself so you don't know how poor people think.

[@caninesandcompany]

Once their mandatory service is completed they will line up for volunteer service. Know what is going on.

[@arthurmoore9488]

@@Desperado070 Agreed. Just look at the number of stories throughout history of someone doing something they know will kill them for the rest of their family. Plus there's always hope that they will be the lucky one.

[@maryginger4877]

Russia already has 100K mobilized troops in the Belgarod/Kursk/Sumy region... Dream on

[@jasontiller]

Thank you for your clear and thoughtful analysis, Anders.

[@klausnielsen7102]

Thanks for “the bigger picture”!

[@AngrynHateful]

@@klausnielsen7102 KZbin 🫵😡🖕

[@christiankammer2379]

Thank you, Anders!

[@calypso4554]

As always a very insightful analysis of the situation. Thank you.

[@AlainLafond]

Always a good insight on the big picture. Thanks for the video.

[@kenithandry5093]

Thanks for the commentary. It is very helpful.

[@Z3nonD3mon]

Those are extremely insightful points you make Anders. I agree with the other commentators to your channel, I believe that the russian population have been propagandised into becoming politically apathetic, and uncaring of pain suffered by other people, including other russian regions. Until history is repeated, and Kursk-allocated conscripts start coming back in coffins to their mothers, the backlash will not happen, and Putin's regime will try to escalate using any other avenue. It's a bit depressing as to how long this has taken, but cracks are starting to show in the facade of russian invincibility.

[@maryginger4877]

In the real world, the entire eastern front is collapsing and Putins approval rating is at an all time high.

[@dioghaltasfoirneartach7258]

​@maryginger4877 That's an embellishment. Not collapsing, but in peril. The ruzzians will never 'rise up' against putin. Only if mass-starvation breaks out, will he be toppled. Until then, no. The ruźzians are obedient serfs, and loyal to 'Little Father' (the czar)

[@dioghaltasfoirneartach7258]

​@@maryginger4877​That's an embellishment. Not collapsing, but in peril. The ruzzians will never 'rise up' against putin. Only if mass-starvation breaks out, will he be toppled. Until then, no. The ruźzians are obedient serfs, and loyal to 'Little Father' (the czar)

[@eddiegoodman9267]

Thanks for the update and views 🇺🇲🇺🇦 Oklahoma USA 🇺🇦🇺🇲 Prayers 🙏🙏🙏 Glory to the Warriors

[@winmill]

Thanks

[@napoleonbootthewendle4905]

Thank you for sharing your brilliant insight.

[@DarkestAlice]

Thank you, Anders Puck Nielsen, for your analysis. Very much appreciated. 🇺🇦 Перемоги та миру всім українцям! 🇺🇦

[@RK-iq9uh]

I feel like it's still a mistake for Russia's response to the attack to be so slow and weak. Sure, securing public backing to deploy conscripts is a good idea, but every inch Ukraine takes is a black eye to Russia. In the weeks or months it takes to bring conscripts into the war- how much land will be lost? So many countries now see Putin's nuclear threat as being completely void. All red lines are crossed and Ukraine created the best publicity it's had in a while. Ukraine's allies are gonna be more willing to give them supplies and let them use it in Russia. Within Russia being reserved might be the better choice but to the rest of the world it looks like weakness.

[@realmaninca]

Most thoughtful breakdown of the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦

[@maryginger4877]

Really, Anders forgot to mention the entire eastern front is in slow motion collapse.

[@viggo535]

Fin objektiv og strategisk beskrivelse af nuværende situation i Ukraine, Tak for det.😮

[@larslarsen5414]

Best analysis of the situation so far. Thank you!

[@williamtell5365]

Good analysis. Even if this hadn't been as successful, one could reasonably see that this was a good gamble by the Ukrainians. Since it has been successful, it has given Ukraine a number of significant advantages. If they can hold this, it will offer even more.

[@jeroenschoot-l5h]

Well analyzed Anders, thank you!. On top of military challenges, increasing economic problems [inflation, lack of spare parts, lack of labor force, etc] can make Putin's political and fysical life extremely vulnerable. Like a smouldering peat fire turning into general, ungovernable discontent.

[@maryginger4877]

Name a NATO country whose leader comes even close to Putin's approval rating... I'll wait.

[@IngmarBooij]

What about the officer corps? More conscrips require more, trained, officers. How will Russia get those?

Thanks for your most valuable insights

[@kalinmir]

its scary to think that they didnt rotate the mobilized so they couldn't speak about the experience and they hope to pay enough to the others to make them not regret it probably

[@carlbennett2417]

That smile quoting your previous self! Love it!

[@jpx1508]

Great insights... thanks!! Highlighting the insight Putin has chosen his fight along half the border length Ukraine has had to defend is significant. As is highlighting the insight that, now that Ukraine has forced Putin to defend the full length of the border, the conscripts will join the fighting... death is now coming to Moscow. Although not highlighted, forcing Russia to defend the full length of the border also explains Lukashenko's recent vocal despair.... Belarus' border is also being pulled into the war.

[@arthurmoore9488]

The smile and note about Russia not listening to him at 4:20 was great. I missed the Lukashenko thing, but can believe it. If Russia had any thoughts about even sending raids in from Belarus that's not happening any more.

[@MDCDiGiPiCs]

thanks Anders, love your work sir.

[@redloup]

Thank you very much. There is many channels with information, it is great to hear a professional opinion good or bad it at least keeps us properly informed, again thank you

[@maryginger4877]

Properly Informed - Anders would have told you Russia already has 100K mobilized troops in the Belgarod/Kursk/Sumy region...

[@craigshagin5506]

Russia also has to feed the enlarged army. This means not only producing the food, but delivering it. The logistic lines are long, not internally well connected and vulnerable to the Ukrainian guns. A bigger army in a top down structure that is not particularly creative, with vulnerable supply lines, disgruntled soldiers, and an economy that is under strain….

[@tomk3732]

LOL!

[@alexpoetov3213]

Wow, another internet expert on Russia production and logistics lol. Can you find Russia on the map by the way ?

[@78jpeg]

Your analysis is spot on but you forgot one little detail The Russian troops willingness to die for their leader How long do you think this is actually going to go on before they actually start to not fight anymore because the willingness seems to be shifting away from fighting It may be a slow snail's process but it seems that it's shifting It's just a thought

[@madyogi6164]

In short? Now putin's army has a rare opportunity to invade themselves.

[@dioghaltasfoirneartach7258]

😁

[@nikolasanitsakis2003]

Νο yet after Odesa

[@grandrapids57]

haaa! Excellent comment

[@stevereade4858]

Very funny! Chances they will fail?

[@dioghaltasfoirneartach7258]

@@stevereade4858 Of course. They're ruźzians

[@stevereade4858]

Great analysis! Thank you!

[@claymmore]

Thanks, Anders. Excellent analysis. I do have a question.Assuming the conscripts are performing some useful function already, who will replace their current function?

[@nikolaikrustev1159]

Regards to conscripts, there is an old Soviet saying: 'Those who've served in the army don't laugh in the Circus'

[@chrishooge3442]

I don't know what that means but Russia has wasted it conscripts on at least two levels. One...they treat them so badly they opt to avoid contract service. The stories of conscript abuse would never be tolerated in a Western military. Stealing their gear. Making them work in money-making work for their military leaders....just Wow. Secondly, conscripts can be a building block of skills for follow on contract service or technical training for the civilian workforce. None of that seems to occur to the Russian military. They treat them like serfs and the conscripts accept that treatment...like serfs. Has Russian society really evolved since the Czarist era...I think not.

[@qazyman]

That's funny 😅

[@deker0954]

Russians melted into Ukrainian farmland.

[@Mygg_Jeager]

They don't laugh because they didn't live. 😏

[@holesmak]

​@chrishooge3442 the saying tells that the amount of absurdity, idiocy and clowns you will see in russian army is so high in concentration that when you go to the circus you'll see their clowns as serious and trained professionals and the whole action as boring

[@geneg2611]

Sending conscripts to war is just as risky as doing a second wave of mobilization. “Basic training” is a loose term. Those young guys are lucky if they even get to hold a real gun, yet alone shoot it. They are not prepared to fight, and the Russian population knows that, including their parents. If they are sent in the war zone, the popularity hit for Putin would be just as high as new mobilization, and he knows it. That’s why when the war started, Putin kept saying that conscripts would not be a part of it. And kept apologizing for the instances when those conscripts turned out to be on the front lines

[@jamesedwards7241]

Kursk is the culmination of several small incursions beyond the Russian border by the forces of Ukraine and for those of us who have been watching this very carefully and far deeper than the media fluff feast over it has been very interesting. What Ukraine realised very quickly was not only the disconnected manner in which the Russian forces reacted, or did not in most cases, but also how the Russian people reacted, which was important. This was backed by a campaign of ensuring that once processed the first thing Ukraine did was to hand the POW a phone and tell them to call home and inform them of where they were and how they were being treated so employing public opinion as a force multiplier. They recognised that it was only a matter of time before Putin would be unable to contain this and he has certainly tried very hard to do so. The average Russian might not have the luxury of fighting city hall, but its people are now starting to grasp what is happening to these conscripts, how their lives can now be measured in a matter of hours once they get to the front and less than minutes once they get within range of Ukraine's well trained and well motivated military machine. Use of public media by Ukraine might have upset a few people but again it is a force multiplier which is why Putin has cut off KZbin and other media platforms. Not a good plan to let your forced conscript actually see what awaits them in full colour with sound is it. certainly demotivates them significantly, plus lets them know exactly how Putin's government is treating the families back home, how those promises of money are being replaced by a chocolate cake or a bag of onions while officials are busy skimming off most of the money. Reports of Ukraine moving in comms gear to reconnect the locals with the outside world are starting to leak out and it all adds up to one thing. Ukraine is turning the Russian people into a weapon against Putin which is what Kursk is all about. Why fight his army when you can get his people to fight him for you.

[@elektrotehnik94]

Amazing insight, thank you sir 🏆❤️

[@geoffgill5334]

Well said...well said

[@33276344]

Laughing at you 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😂😂😂😂😂😂😂, you definitely have diarrhea just like Biden, Zelensky, Blinken, Boris and Sullivan

[@maryginger4877]

Russia's biggest problem was getting Ukraine to deploy its reserves and best equipment, now, thanks to Kursk, that is no longer a problem. Meanwhile Ukraine is collapsing along the eastern front.

[@pirminp7090]

​@@maryginger4877how do you differentiate between rereating/pushed back and collapsing? If the collabse was true there would be significant losses on the ukrainian side also the speed of the attacker would increase, afaik we havent seen that, at least not in the manner you describe

[@pauljackson4075]

Thanks Mr.Nielsen. This is the best analysis of the situation that I have seen!

[@Hind135]

Your videos are so refreshing and academic. Thanks for sharing. I selfishly wish you analyzed the Middle East too.

[@DavidMulderOne]

The final comment Anders made is incredibly interesting: Ukraine has to get the war to the point of escalation where Putin will be willing to compromise... that's an incredibly scary prospect.

[@sandwiches-o3f]

It us just basic logic.

[@Sam-Cain]

​@@sandwiches-o3fThe problem is they're fighting a battle of logic against a dying man with nukes. Whichever way you swing it, it's scary.

[@AZo-p8h]

This is being done by the powers that be to prolong the war. You can't compromise while holding their territory. It's reverse projection. If America really wanted U.S influence in Cuba...it won't get the F out of Guantanamo.

[@shwetapatwa1327]

And Russian will probably destroying Remaining Ukrainian electricity grid in return along with sending technology to houthis and iran. So it is a bad decision,

[@Jamesxavier-v4x]

@@Sam-CainHis oligarch will lead Putin to a high window 🪟 🏃‍♂️ before he will event launch 🚀 nukes!

[@marklandwehr7604]

Caesar did a similar thing When his enemy was combined together He sent his cavalry out in different directions to light fire to all their villages His enemies that was previously organized in one large formation Then scattered in every different direction To put out their own particular villages fire Caesar then went on to defeat them

[@elektrotehnik94]

Ukraine's interior lines of movement + divide & conquer. 🏆 It can work, if Ukraine is assisted to the point of having adequate military resources to pull it off. 💪❤️

[@FiadhaichCruaidh]

Tried and proven Tactic

[@Mark-s7d6l]

This is the best analysis of the current situation that I have heard so far. Sadly, this means that the war will not end soon.

[@maryginger4877]

The eastern front is collapsing

[@PeanutsDadForever]

Always a great video, thanks.

[@Gary_OC]

Thank Anders. Fantastic analysis from your own unique perspective 👍

[@ihatetoshiba]

If Putin is going to use conscripts as part of their regular fighting forces, he will have to train them and equip them properly. If he rushes them into the line with the training and equipment they currently give them, it will just mean more prisoners of war for Ukraine to house. The conscripts aren't suicidal.

[@maryginger4877]

Russia already has 100K mobilized troops in the Belgarod/Kursk/Sumy region... Dream on

[@massengineer7582]

​@@maryginger4877 troll? If Russia has 100,000 troops in the region, how come they're doing so badly against 5,O00 or 10,000 Ukrainians?

[@maryginger4877]

@@massengineer7582 What makes you think Ukraine is "doing well"... capturing empty fields of no value, and it knows it can not keep... while the eastern front is collapsing. Ukraine just lost New York, the Russians are at the gates of Toretsk, and Prokvorsk is doomed.

[@massengineer7582]

@@maryginger4877 what makes you think Russia is doing well, taking over land it cannot keep? Russia has mobilized the entire free world against it, NATO has expanded, and you (Russia) will be under sanctions for the next 50 years or more. Eventually your salary as a troll will be cut off.

[@tuehojbjerg969]

@@maryginger4877 I SEE YOU ARE REPATING THE SAME THING YOU VATNIKS HAVE SAID FOR A MONTH WORD FOR WORD

[@RedJadeArt]

6:21 the fact they’re paying 22,000 usd to volunteers as a sign on bonus indicates that they’re already throwing quite a lot into getting volunteers. This is the penalty of Russia’s reckless short term thinking. If it had not spent so many lives capturing say, Bakhmut, it had equipped people better, it trained them better, it didn’t spend so much in terms of human lives on goals like this, it could have done so much better. It wouldn’t be in this position right now.

[@JL-tm3rc]

Russia is doing just fine. The US forced conscription in vietnam

[@RedJadeArt]

@@JL-tm3rc yeah and Vietnam famously went great for America

[@JL-tm3rc]

@@RedJadeArt ukraine is no vietnam. The us fought an insurgency war with no clear frontlines while russia fights conventionally and slowly allowing civilians to evacuate as there is a clear frontline

[@RedJadeArt]

@@JL-tm3rc is there a clear front line? Why are there Ukrainians in Kursk then?

[@JL-tm3rc]

@@RedJadeArt it is a clear frontline have you not seen the map. Ukraine is not an insurgency war

[@catherineandpaulfuters2523]

Thank you for your coverage and insights 🇪🇺🇺🇦🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇺🇦🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@vincentamico3326]

Your analyses are absolutey excellent and precise.I am very impressed,while aso seeing innumerable other such yoube channels.Also I am pleased to notice your absolute impariatily and pure military-technical judgement.

[@youuuuuuuuuuutube]

As always, excellent analysis, way way better than the average analysis we find online.

[@ap80shg]

Also interesting to note that conscripts knew they were likely safe from the war so not overly opposed to being sent. Now they can die, be taken hostage, or become injured fighting. This may impact future conscription

[@kapytanhook]

But also the motherland being invaded will grow conscription. Many Russians won't like doing a foreign war. But will defend their land. Millions of fresh candidates. It seems like such a bad move.

[@flampagan1994]

@@kapytanhook Unlikely, Russia have 144 million, 34% are between the age of 18 and 44, half of them are female. As conscription only applies to men reducing the conscriptable pool to 17%. Those 17% are not jumping out of the void, they are the backbone of the Russian economy, every million recruited is a million less to work factories and more, given the sanctions forcing Russia to make a lot domestically recruiting to many could cause an industry collapse.

[@kapytanhook]

@@flampagan1994 Germany fieled close to 8m with 50m pop. Russia isn't even close to that. Just look at Israel too. they could field a million more and have the survivors back to work in a few years. Meanwhile the women can make ammo

[@maurvir3197]

The real difference is that the conscript army is comprised of young men in their prime, not old men, prisoners, and whoever the North Koreans sent. Having large numbers of young men wiped out in a war will absolutely wreck Russian demographics for decades in a way the current meat-wave tactics haven't - never mind the political cost it will incur when the average Russian's kid comes home in a box or not at all. I have no doubt Putin will go that route, as he also can't afford to be seen as "losing", but wow - he is going to screw Russia even harder when this is over by going that route.

[@seanp9277]

There are no "meat-wave tactics". This is a product of your imagination.

[@maurvir3197]

​@@seanp9277 What else do you call sending wave after wave of barely armed men toward an objective until the Ukrainians run out of bullets? Why else do you think the Russian KIA rate has been so high? Nevermind we have actual video of it in several cities.

[@seanp9277]

@@maurvir3197 Make believe. Pure fantasy. There is no evidence of this, just like there was no evidence of these kinds of attacks during WW2. Just the loser Germans trying to come up with excuses why they lost to a people they considered inferior. Here's a puzzle for you. If the Russians are having high casualties how is it that they can continue multiple offensive operations all year and even increase the intensity of those operations and not have multiple mobilizations? In fact it is Ukraine that is experiencing manpower shortages, they acknowledge that themselves. It is therefore Ukraine that is sustaining high casualties. This is due to the overwhelming Russian advantage in firepower. Artillery is what causes the majority of casualties and the Russians have a 10:1 advantage without the ammunition shortages that Ukraine experiences.

[@seanp9277]

@@maurvir3197 Fantasy. A product of your imagination. There is no evidence of these sorts of attacks by either side. According to Ukrainian soldiers, the Russian soldier is well equipped, well trained and motivated. But because the Russians have a significant advantage in artillery it is rare to see a Russian soldier. They simply smother the Ukrainian positions with artillery and then mop up the survivors.

[@tomk3732]

Well, most Ukrainian young men either run away or are dead. Putin can use some conscripts but the usage is low and will not make any dent in demographic.

[@relicofgold]

Liked and subscribed for your consistently thorough and erudite analysis of a very complicated situation.

[@Strathom1]

Super, thank you!!!

[@plamennajdenov9640]

Good analysis again. I appreciate your channel.

[@nancydelu4061]

We're always happy to hear your perspective. Keep it up!

[@Zomby_Woof]

Ukraine will face a larger weaker army, driving up Russian casualties. Russia cannot sustain heavy casualties over the long haul. They have struggled for decades with a negative birthrate, which were able to offset for a time with large scale immigration. It's that immigrant pool that has supplied most of the conscripts. And that pool is being quickly exhausted and cannot be replenished, since immigration fell to effectively zero when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. So Putin has stopped the immigration they counted on, while literally killing off existing immigrants. Additionally each mobilization wave causes an exodus of Russians, typically among younger and more well educated Russians. Russia has been literally dying off, and Putin has accelerated the process and pretty much doomed Russia to extinction in the long term. Short term, he's going to have a difficult time recruiting a significant number of troops without finding himself ushered out a window.

[@paulworonecki105]

If Putin commits the conscripts to the war wouldn't that wipe out another generation of soldiers hurting Russia more in the future? Ty

[@alexpoetov3213]

After this war Russia will have dark future but Ukr will have no future at all. But who cares about those ukr right ? lol

[@PovlKvols]

Always interesting perspectives and food for thought. Thank you for sharing, @Anders

[@sunflower-tz]

Thank you for the nuanced, balanced analysis, Anders 💙💛

[@Yes-bk9cl]

@@sunflower-tz Pure NATO propaganda at best...

[@sunflower-tz]

@@Yes-bk9cl vatnik much?

[@Yes-bk9cl]

@@sunflower-tz Tumbe

[@bassmanjr100]

Why is this only a problem for Russia? Does this not also stretch the Ukrainian army?

[@alexpoetov3213]

Don't you know that according to westerns media it is only Russia who suffers casualties and shortages as ukr are mighty legendary warriors with no fear, weary, hesitation or low morale. You may find all those cliches in Disney's franchise series about the Avengers LOL

[@janrunetraa2677]

Putin needs the same persons that can become soldiers, to participate in the workforce too.

[@SergioLopez-hw6pk]

Fantastic report. Mr. Nielsen

[@Feralzen]

Always an eye opener to listen to you!

[@teashea1]

Another excellent analysis. thanks