Ukrainian Counteroffensive - Coming Success or Looming Failure?

[@AdamSomething]

Play Conflict of Nations for FREE on PC or Mobile: 💥 con.onelink.me/kZW6/vy4oexl8 Receive an Amazing New Player Pack, only available for the next 30 days! Thanks to Conflict of Nations for sponsoring the video.

[@shengloongtan229]

First

[@JosephJoeseph]

I have no issue with sponsors, I understand youtubers might need them to support themselves but I feel like putting one in a video about an actual military conflict taking people's lives at this exact moment is pretty insensitive, especially considering it's a game about waging wars of all things. Keep them for the urban planning videos or whatever else you make.

[@Jan-fn9nc]

I hope you at least made bank with that sponsor. Seems in bad taste.

[@dllemon]

this sponsor is soo disrespectful on a video like this jesus

[@gooblepls3985]

Jesus Adam, really?

[@cerealisasoup2439]

The fact that this guy got sponsored by a strategy war game while talking about an ongoing war is insane.

[@amanda-we9fv]

in all fairness, it's probably bad taste for him to accept the sponsor offer for a game during a devastating war...

[@chrishieke1261]

Pecunia non olet. :o

[@vaclavnutil2646]

and he did it using a powerpoint presentation too

[@laurencefraser]

it's... absolutely standard advertising logic, actually.

[@krollpeter]

@@laurencefraser I have to belch out a disgusted: yes, that's correct

[@ReySchultz121]

WW2 took 6 years to end. The fact of the matter is war takes time. When you're living through a historic moment, sure feels like forever doesn't it?

[@mystuff9999]

Well, I‘m sure that‘s what it feels like to the poor bastards in the trenches…

[@Слышьты-ф4ю]

Not really. Last week coronavirus pandemic happened to be harmful, yesterday Zhyve Belarus, today we are just part of Russian fascism and can't read SCP

[@jorislal]

@@Слышьты-ф4ю what?

[@GBA811]

If consider the Sino Japanese War It took more than a decade

[@selfworm]

Found the bot account! 101 upvotes in just 1 hour, while all other recent comments have at most 6 upvotes.

[@MegaSaidos]

Short answer : No lol

[@adamboyd1132]

Re: 12:13 It's a lot easier to replace a tank than a trained tank crew, and walking away from a defeat can be a powerful lesson. This is why ensuring crew survivability, even at the cost of combat performance, is so important. (Of course, the US approach is to keep the combat performance, and just spend more to get crew survivability)

[@MostlyPennyCat]

You'll notice that when Ukrainians were first given NATO APCs and IFVs, the soldiers would ride them Soviet style, sorry in the roof instead of inside the APC. This is because BMPs are deadly to their crew and passengers, one good hit and everybody inside died explosively. Then, as they started seeing NATO quality AFVs _not_ explode, they rode _inside_ the AFVs. So now, when they get trapped in a minefield in disabled Bradley or something, they survive, climb out the Brad and walk/run back to their base to pick up a new one.

[@pierluigiadreani2159]

No really, nowadays takes months to produce a tank.

[@henriquepacheco7473]

@@pierluigiadreani2159 how long do you think it takes to replace a competent crew?

[@jrknsOFF]

Here in Russia, thanks to the USSR heritage, we have it backwards: equipment is cherished much more (probably because the stupid command of any kind thinks of it as expensive and doesn't care to look down further) than the human life. It's so absurd that one of the punk musicians put a bit into one of his songs that essentially depicts an interrogation one of the surviving tank crew members finds himself in, being asked "Why didn't you burn with your tank?" I think we've had a death cult for centuries here.

[@Amigo21189]

Yep! The weapon is fungible, the trooper running it is not.

[@robertking4645]

The biggest mistake that was made by Ukraine's allies imo happened after Ukraine had liberated Kherson. It happened in November of 2022, Ukraine has just launched an enormously successful offensive in the east and liberated the city of Kherson(the only regional center Russia was able to capture). After that, Russia's morale plummeted, many pro-Kremlin bloggers started whining over inevitable loss, Putin started mobilization and tens of thousands of Russians started escaping to neighboring countries. Instead of capitalizing on that momentum, the west spent months arguing over sending tanks and heavy equipment, refused to send F-16s and long range missiles giving Russia necessary time to build up defenses which it didn't have in November and train their troops to try and resist the Ukrainian attempt to liberate its'land. That's the problem that brought us in such a complicated situation where ukrainians have to storm well fortified Russian positions making gains far slower than they could have if their western allies didn't waste so much time on childlike arguments like "hey America, I'll send Leopard-2s to Ukraine buuuut only if you send your Abrams tanks"

[@theotherohlourdespadua1131]

It's never gonna be easy to get the governments to be convinced to go whole hog on this. A major reason for that is has always been Russia's nuclear arsenal but a good chunk of their hesitation stems from them not being prepared to commit to such endeavor...

[@legion999]

Yes, us the west have been dragging our feet this whole conflict

[@ericmacrae6871]

Fun fact Kershon wasn't liberated but it was given to the Ukrainian since Russian wanted to preverse their human lives. On top of that the Russian moral did not plummeted since countless of them volunteer to join the partial mobilization and the government had to turn away countless volunteer.

[@piragintheevercorpulent1526]

​​@@ericmacrae6871... so what you're saying is that the Russians gave up Kherson because they couldn't hold it? Damn it's like the Russians were doing badly in the region! Also the Russian people were so enthusiastic about the war effort that a fuckton of them immediately made for the Georgian border so they wouldn't get mobilized. I actually know one such Russian online!

[@piragintheevercorpulent1526]

​@@mseerossUnlike "Fortunate Son" there's no-one outside Ukraine who's getting drafted to go fight for it. Americans and other NATO peeps who show up in Ukraine are all volunteers. Can't say that for much of the Mobiks.

[@Haibing22]

Short answer: no Long answer: noooooooooooo

[@Pandamasque]

3:24 more precisely, that was a number of vehicles damaged by landmines after a UK-supplied de-mining vehicle failed to effectively clear mines in a safe corridor that it was supposed to create for a breakthrough. The troops had to abandon the damaged vehicles and retreat. At least some of those have been recovered later, repaired and are back in service. Reportedly, the density and size of minefields created by Russians on their 1st defensive line is unlike anything any army has ever encountered.

[@KerbalRocketry]

yep, most minesweeping equipment just isn't suited for the ways the russians are laying mines, the density is to the point that some mines are even stacked ontop of each other to improve their chances of damaging mineclearing equipment

[@whynot-tomorrow_1945]

It’s also frustrating that people who barely pay attention to this war are like, “Ukraine using cluster munitions is bad because unexploded ordinance will litter the countryside!” Meanwhile, Russia has been planting tens of thousands of landmines in Ukraine, most of which will remain buried in arable farmland for the foreseeable future.

[@TheStaniG]

@@whynot-tomorrow_1945 the difference between organised landmine deployment and cluster munitions is the Engineers know EXACTLY where those mines are, you have to make mine maps for command so you dont blow yourselves up (obviously). Cluster munitions offer you no such certainty and you bet your ass nobody is making maps of the expected launch parabolas before every shot.... cmon man, this isnt even close, its not even limited to Russia, ANY army that uses mines makes these maps.

[@namantherockstar]

Adam inspires me.. My parents said if i get 40K followers They'd buy me a professional camera for recording..begging u guys , literally Begging.

[@juliandacosta6841]

​@@whynot-tomorrow_1945more undetonated explosives is never good

[@HeavenlyBrush]

Thank you for calling out sushko, the guy is completely unhinged and would spread bonkers propaganda without checking it even for a second. Also one other thing worth mentioning regarding the shift in ukrainian strategy, they've been putting a lot more effort into their counter battery than previously, utilizing gmlrs to hit specific russian artillery pieces and positions. Both ukrainian government and russian mil vlogger sources noted that and i think it's a pretty important thing to consider. Russian defenses rely on artillery just as much as those fortifications themselves, heavy attrition of artillery has a potential to create openings for ukraine to exploit as well.

[@namantherockstar]

Adam inspires me.. My parents said if i get 40K followers They'd buy me a professional camera for recording..begging u guys , literally Begging.

[@boymahina123]

@@namantherockstar you dont need a professional camera to make content _just make the damn content_

[@terrypennington2519]

@@boymahina123 It's a bot account, they're going around spouting that exact same sentence in a lot of videos

[@zabababa9969]

I haven't noticed before in Adam's videos, that he uses solely microsoft PowerPoint, you can basically sum up everything in it. Never thought of it how simply a youtube video can be made. But yes, that guy "begging" is a troll.

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

@@zabababa9969 Silly me. I'll unsubscribe.

[@archvaldor]

The media has been like "Ukraine not instantly destroying much larger nation" for months now.

[@angus7278]

More like “Ukraine handily destroying incompetent Russian army and successfully overthrowing dictator Putin not proceeding at exactly 100%”

[@underarmbowlingincidentof1981]

When facing invasion a nations survival is that nations victory. The fact the lines have not moved much for half the war now is pretty damn apparent to whos NOT got the upper hand.

[@TooFatTooFurious]

Destroying Russia 101% no NATO weapons glitchless speedrun

[@brien144]

Without air superiority, modern warfare looks more like WW1 than WW2. It will look like stalemate until one side breaks through.

[@typicalsomeone5073]

Pretty much but now with drones

[@djkinetic2020]

Yup Ukraine will have to encircle hundreds of settlements like Bakhmut and have to win in every single one of them. Forget about Donetsk or Luhansk, Ukraine cant take out a huge city like that never in a million years. Ukraine cant even take small villages, with their supposedly NATO equiped Spring offensive turned Late Summer failure that they prepared for an entire year.

[@walletracer9882]

And like WW1, the most tactically important air operations revolve around recon and artillery spotting (drones).

[@MultiAlpha11]

In the western front yes. On the eastern front there was also trench warfare but the Russian military was so incompetent that they started losing ground only a couple months after the war started. Sound familiar?

[@sabretooth1997]

@@MultiAlpha11 When has Russia ever been competent in any kind of military engagement when left to their own devices? Sure, they handled the Eastern Front quite well in the later years, that much can't be argued. But when was the last time they fought alone in a single-fronted conflict and performed even as well as poorly?

[@terencetan5712]

I always love how the West tells Ukraine to fight like NATO but never gives them enough toys to do so

[@TheSkyGuy77]

""Do it yourself, but here's what we would do""

[@GotYa]

Yup, some kind of strong air presence is necessary to really fight like NATO. For Ukraine, that probably needs to come in the form of F-16s, luckily training is happening but right now they can't compete much air to air wise.

[@hamzamahmood9565]

It takes time to train with those "toys".

[@WeedCop]

yeah it's almost as if nato shouldn't be assisting countries not a part of it

[@comradeLucienne]

>toys it's scary that you use this euphemism. is that what weapons of war are to you?

[@demos113]

No plan survives contact with the enemy, adapt, persevere, win.

[@rmentat]

Sometimes you can win, sometimes you can't.

[@keizervanenerc5180]

Improvise, adapt, overcome.

[@ubertrashcat]

Planning is everything, plans are nothing

[@Malkasphia]

Never forget , never surrender. GI Joe, a true American hero.

[@lapapa2019]

I guess the slaughter must be for something rather than nothing

[@RDude_]

It's always important to know, that an offensive against a fortified line is extremely hard and difficult. A breakthrough without bigger losses is basically impossible. Not even mentioning the ammo shortages, lack of long range rockets or not having air superiority. It's gonna be intense and bloody. Best regards for the ukrainian soldier's Edit: Many tankies and Z Fans here

[@electroflame6188]

@@ИмяФамилия-ц6д nice larp

[@JackdotC]

@@ИмяФамилия-ц6д Russia is still using oiltapping equipment from the 1950s, but go off I guess. Hope the you can survive on LARP when the famine kicks in and you get conscripted to starve on the front lines

[@specialingu]

@@ИмяФамилия-ц6д you can sit and wait, but your losing hundreds of soldiers per day. and your increasing isolated. plus the costs of maintaining a huge war effort, is degrading normal peoples lives in russia. This war is also a disaster for normal russian people. but hey your country gets to take its mask off and show everyone who it really is, and gain some dirt. and you dont have enough land already right?

[@ultraviolet37]

@@ИмяФамилия-ц6д how's the ruble doing?

[@orionide4032]

​@@ИмяФамилия-ц6дRussia is losing their arms trade. India is buying US gear, China is copying US gear. Russia cannot wait due to its huge demographics decline and Poland is betting everything on Ukraine.

[@martinsriber7760]

Westerners slowly send equipment and then they complain counteroffensive is slow. Well, maybe it would go much faster if Russians didn't get plenty of time to fortify...

[@laurencefraser]

Mind you, the people making the decisions and the people complaining are generally not the same people. Well, there are some politicians who take great delight in sabotaging what their opponents are trying to do and then pretending they had nothing to do with the issues when the next election roles around, but other than them...

[@theultimatereductionist7592]

Ikr?

[@KungFuIsland]

The West (I say this as an American) isn't trying to win the war. They're using Ukraine as a proxy to bleed Russia and "degrade its capabilities." The problem is that Russia has large economy and military (not to mention nukes), unlike other nations we have attempted similar strategies on. China is an economic powerhouse and will continue to side with Russia. On top of that, public support in the US has decreased steadily since the conflict began, so get used to slower and fewer arms and equipment in the future. If you expect the US to enter WW3 over Ukraine--hell, if you would even entertain the risk of a WW3, hand over that crack pipe, cause I want some of whatever you're having.

[@angus7278]

Will we ever get our money back? It was taken without a vote or consultation.

[@martinsriber7760]

@@angus7278 Sure, let's consult public and have referendum for every budget decision. That is totally practical and reasonable thing to do...

[@BSideWasTaken]

That sponsor was an... interesting choice, Adam. Edit: this was meant as a joke folx please chill

[@dagda1180]

Honestly, I don't worry too much about it. He didn't dramatise the situation, and made the video entertaining enough. Videos about war don't tend to receive good ad-money, so a little sponsor-dosh is probably applicable. And it's not the usual garbage, so I'm happy.

[@peterheinzo515]

well as long as no one installs the game from his ad its fine. let the guy make some money, talking about the war will get you demonetized immediately, and i rather skip through a 60 second ad read and learn about real world events than not learn about them at all!

[@peterheinzo515]

@@ИмяФамилия-ц6д thats always true. doesnt change the facts tho

[@puma2334]

@@ИмяФамилия-ц6дthe dude's got to make a living somehow and it's also not giving anyone any harm

[@BSideWasTaken]

For the record - I'm not meaning to "shame" Adam here, man needs to eat and as another commenter has correctly pointed out getting these videos monetised must be hell. I just wanted to make the obvious joke.

[@andremrh7690]

Love that PowerPoint presentation videos are now just referred as "Perun-style". Aussies are taking over the world mates.

[@valentincafferata182]

Cant get enough of perun style videos

[@furinick]

"bro thinks he peru 😭😭😭😭😭😭"

[@MultiSciGeek]

Really not happy about Adam taking sponsorship from these stupid apps. Like I was just waiting for him to drop a video criticising modern capitalism and the stupid sponsorships youtubers take instead of focusing on quality and patreon, aka the TikTok model of consumption but alas, nobody is perfect, and it can be hard to analyse your own biases.

[@holdengohs6997]

I’m willing to fast forward through an ad if it means faster and better videos

[@bluthammer1442]

just a reminder we are in the midst of war time propaganda as well

[@Tonixxy]

Ukriane with NATO has 10x the propaganda

[@Praxics0815]

12:00 Lately a lot of people call the Leopard crap and a failure. It got taken out in Syria and in Ukraine therefore bad tank. All I see is that the Leopard holds up. Admittedly I don't know who died or got injured. However from videos out of Syria you can clearly see crew leaving the tanks after being hit, in Ukraine you can't see dead crew anywhere near a Leopard. The completely disintegrated Leopards in Syria afaik got airstriked by Turkey to prevent capture. In Ukraine we have seen Lancet drones hit Leopards and PzH2000 and the crew got out and was fine. Yes the tank gets taken out but the important part is the trained crew survives. The tank can often be repaired if recovered. If the crew is dead at the first encounter they can't learn, improve and pass on their experience. Russian tanks often kill their crew when hit due to the open ammunition carousels of the auto loader. However the fact remains a hit that takes out a T-80 probably also takes out a Leopard and here is the kicker it probably also takes out an Abrams. So all those waiting for the Abrams to bulldoze the defensive lines will probably be very disappointed. The difference is the Leopard crew has a good chance to survive a hit, the T-80 crew has a good chance to becomes cosmonauts.

[@nickolashogg259]

Or T80 crew just gets vaporized in the more boring manner.

[@mr.politics1388]

I like your call out. If we measured how got a tank is by weather or not it can be destroyed we may be a bit overly critical.

[@kakyoin9688]

Weren’t Abrams casually deflecting T-90 rounds in the Persian Gulf war?

[@Warcrimy]

@@kakyoin9688 I'm more than sure it in fact didn't. At least because T90's production started a year after the war has ended

[@kakyoin9688]

@@Warcrimy I’m gonna be honest I didn’t know the model, I just remembered hearing that Iraqi tanks that were Soviet provided were massively overpowered by the Abrams.

[@MegaRabbitPower]

Glad to see your presentation style has become based and Perun Powerpoint-pilled.

[@stayniftyGuyFaceMannPersonDude]

Perun really is an amazing channel that deserves a sub. That man puts so much effort into his videos that militaries actually use his videos for educational purposes and briefs ... no bs, the dude is a professional.

[@cbhlde]

Yeah, cool, he is making money of promoting a war that is not even winnable. What a great guy; with his knowledge; he knows but decided that ad revenue is cooler than telling the truth.

[@134343]

​@@cbhldehello Russian bot. How are you doing?

[@melkor3496]

Perun is literally my weekly medication at this point. His content is literally godly good and extremely in depth.

[@fulcrum2951]

​@@cbhldethe truth... Like what?

[@kingflynxi9420]

​@@cbhldeif he makes money telling the truth that's what we call a "mutually beneficial arrangement"

[@DankAudioStash24]

Long live Ukraine ❤

[@GayestWinston]

❤

[@brainwasher9876]

Slava ukraini!

[@peegeeyay]

Ukraine is Russia ❤

[@josefsvec5236]

Slava Ukraini!

[@Bobbyfischer-md7vt]

@@peegeeyay no

[@player1GR]

So this video is a definition of copium

[@andrejrockshox]

so russia lost 2200 tanks, but ukraine needs just 300 to win. hard to believe.

[@thezebiano]

I'd say the choice of advertisement wasn't the best... An entire video talking about a "Horrible war is happening" which ends with "Want to play pretend of a war and be victorious by killing others?". Either way, thanks for the update!

[@hrianboyer928]

I was just about to call out the Perun cosplay

[@jdb47games]

...complete with the same spelling mistakes.😆

[@TheNapkuchen]

Perun is awesome. He def deserves a sub

[@SilentHollow69]

I find it funny how he calls some people "Ukraine cheerleaders" in an attempt to seem unbiased, and then goes on to make every single argument and deflection those "Ukraine cheerleaders" have been making over the past two months. The counter-offensive has been a catastrophic disaster for Ukraine. They burned through much of their Western donated equipment and morale is collapsing as Ukrainians are starting to realize that retaking Crimea is at all a realistic endeavor.

[@RipMachine1]

One very important factor you did not properly touched, Russia still has a massive air advantage, while not having a full air superiority due to AA, it still plays a significant role

[@highjumpstudios2384]

How so? If Russia had a massive air advantage why haven't they achieved any sort of air superiority?

[@RipMachine1]

@@highjumpstudios2384 because AA are very good at shooting them down, but airplanes can still operate and hit targets outside of AA range

[@fang_xianfu]

I love that "the Perun format" is a thing. More power to the PowerPoint.

[@Tarri69]

Keep believing Ukrainian data

[@MarcTelang]

what data do you belive?

[@xikes]

Yeaah, Perun is awesome! I've been following him since the start to of the war.

[@TheCleverADHDstudios]

“Where’s my pig?” -Nicolas Cage

[@gausts]

The defensive lines in Kherson and Kharkiv were stagnant for months while Ukraine decimated supply lines.

[@djkinetic2020]

Russia has been decimating Ukranian supply lines too and entire settlements.

[@dopepopeurban6129]

@@mozesmarcus461 you actually do find a ton of Ukrainian soldiers complaining about their supply issues if you just go and search for them. The fact of the matter is that the Ukrainian army is, though needed, too large for its country’s economy to sustain long term. Not just when it comes to ammunition and hardware, but also to basic supplies like clothing, food and even money. Generally speaking, the southern front is more or less well supplied, taking much of russian leftovers when the divisions withdrew behind the dnepr, but the eastern and north eastern fronts are basically running on duct tape at this point. And it shows, given those are the fronts Russia could score the most territorial gains during the last 6 months. Now combine that with a somewhat politically driven military command for the east and you get soldiers defending backhmut with hand pistols and flare guns when they ran out of supplies.

[@domschra]

​@@dopepopeurban6129was the same for german & soviet armies during ww2 You need a large army to cover the frontline

[@TheFenderBass1]

@@dopepopeurban6129 I don't know how you feel that Ukraines supply issues were shown in the east/north east part of the fronts, given that the battle for Bakhmut, was a russian sludge fighting formidable Ukrainian divisions for as you said 6 months and grinding away at the flanks trying to cut Ukrainian supplies but not succeeding. And yeah they were obviously not defending bakhmut with hand guns, they planned intensely around the withdrawel and spent resources on demolishing buildings and had enough supplies to withdraw tactically without being surrounded and lose their divisions. With massive supply issues it wouldn't be possible to defend bakhmut like they did for 6 months, nor would it be possible to recapture the flanks as is happening now. I'm not arguing that Ukraine doesn't have supply issues, however I feel they are the normal amount one would expect into a massive war for over a year, and not critical. Cause from what I've seen (and i've followed the war intensely) the biggest problem isn't lack of supply (excluding artillery ammo) for Ukraine, but rather the infrastructure not allowing adequate supply refreshments to the front (when speaking of the northern/eastern part, prime example is the border to luhansk which seriously lack infrastructure for proper transport and storage)

[@highjumpstudios2384]

@@dopepopeurban6129Russia could score the most territorial gains in the last six months but they probably won't. If they had the operational capability to hit the Ukranian army in the ass while they were distracted down south why haven't they?

[@AyubuKK]

So in other words, like all wars, how the war is going is a little more complicated than simply saying only one side is winning and the other side is losing. However Ukraine still does seem to have the upper hand.

[@Draconianoverlord55]

The upper hand?😂

[@langhamp8912]

The Russians have "squatters rights" to a huge amount of Ukrainian territory and it is up to the Ukrainians to take it back. Right now, that doesn't look even remotely possible, because a defensive force can swap hardware for bodies (ie fortifications).

[@jeffersonclippership2588]

​@@Draconianoverlord55 everyday the Russians aren't in Kiev is another day of them losing the war

[@Bobbyfischer-md7vt]

@@jeffersonclippership2588 lmao 3 days now over 500 days😭😭😭😭😭

[@underarmbowlingincidentof1981]

@@Draconianoverlord55 When a nation is facing invasion survival becomes the objective. And Ukraine is surviving.

[@canadianpirateanders9951]

war sucks. RIP to all the young men who have died. hope ya have peace in the afterlife.

[@mr.politics1388]

Yeah, so pointless invasions. Why can people like Putin not just live peacefully together.

[@Barwasser]

so MS Powerpoint is now considered "Perun-style". I love it.

[@canalmedusa123]

7:21 dude just picked the best Prigozhin photo possible

[@youteacher78]

I thought it was Sasha Baron Cohen and wondered what he was up to this time. Very nice!

[@dwightk.schrute8696]

Me: Mom I want Perun Mom: We have Perun at home Perun at home:

[@UtaShirokage]

This is so insanely insensitive. Getting a war game sponsor for a video about a real war? Are you insane? You know that dozens and hundreds are dying regularly right???

[@StereoPalto]

love when there is no need to change the video speed to 1.25 cuz it`s in 1.25 already

[@LimeyLassen]

Dude's living in 1.25 irl

[@StereoPalto]

@@LimeyLassen 😆

[@dirtydish6642]

Love the choice of Prigozin pic.

[@JB-xw1zq]

Man, I know money is always money, but the sponsor ad here is really fucked up.

[@shannonparkhill5557]

Follow Perun, great unbiased coverage and analysis

[@johnpoo1662]

everyone on YT has become a war expert

[@mr.politics1388]

I get your point, but is there anything you could call out as wrong or misleading?

[@johnpoo1662]

​@@mr.politics1388 no way to tell tbh. that's the point of these "here is my opinion about an opinion" vids.

[@squidysnose69]

​@@mr.politics1388everything. Saying we dont know the Ukraine war plan yet he made up russias war plan in the winter exept russia never had intentions of a winter offensive. He made up a 40-60% casualties for russia. He called russians tired and demoralized after the winter yet Ukraine suffred more in bakmut than wagner did. He talked about Ukraine using the momentum after kherson but there wasnt any momentum to use since the Ukrainians had to defend bakhmut. He didnt mention swedish cv90 ifvs that were sent to ukraine. He says western milatary production will outmatch russias. Meanwhile russia isnt slowing down with artillery but ukraine has run out. He talked alot out of his ass stating opinions and such. Not a good combat analysis. Very biased missing alot of facts and details. He didnt even mention russian lancets and fabs. You cant talk about russian tactics without mention those 2 lol

[@wilsonli5642]

The Korea scenario seems like an unlikely outcome to me. The Korean War (the active part, I suppose) ended with a relatively short line of control between the two main combatants (i.e., the DMZ is about 10% of South Korea's perimeter and only about 6% of North Korea's), and it's rough, mountainous terrain for the most part. The DMZ is also flanked by water on both sides. The pre-2014 land border with Russia is about 26% of Ukraine's perimeter, and if you throw in Belarus and Transdnistria, it's just about 50% of Ukraine's border. The land is also relatively flat. So a pure cease-fire is going to leave a lot of potential for cheating - sabotage groups crossing the border, kidnappings and assassinations - stuff that happened in Korea too post-cease-fire, but probably on a larger scale. It seems likely that one or more of such incidents will provoke a renewal of the conflict.

[@knightguard1724]

Part of me wonders is some people think this as a football game, or like a HOI4 game. The hype for this offensive was equivalent to a fucking movie release. You can't just focus all your space marines to one tile. Everyone seems to not consider the fact that one of the major aspects of attacking is how many lives will it take. Trying to find the weak point for a breakthrough, while also keeping as many solders alive is a delicate balance. Nobody has to think about this in a HOI4 German world conquest game.

[@justusP9101]

Well said good sir

[@zlorpmann]

Homie took a page out of Perun's notebook and went full PowerPoint on us.

[@KimmoKM]

If we look at the big picture, it doesn't matter whether the offensive succeeds (that is, reaches its objectives, you can trade favorably and gain ground but it'd still count as a failure) or fails. The collective West has been senselessly self-deterring (if you show strength, you can just walk over Putin because he's weak and can't do anything, if you display weakness by for instance delaying sending "offensive weapons systems", then Putin sees weakness and escalates), and at least by appearances has been playing a game of chicken with the military aid where no individual nation wants to shoulder the burden of eating into their stockpiles of actually modern good kit, hoping others swerve first and send more than just scraps to keep Ukraine afloat. But the West is committed enough now that they can't politically back down, and if it looks like Ukraine might lose, suddenly they'd find extra couple of hundred Leopard 2s and stuff. Ditto for munitions: the West has been really slow about increasing production, being unwilling to give manufacturers long-term contracts to secure their investment in increasing production lines and all that, but it's getting there, and the collective West can spend basically infinitesimal part of their GDP and still outproduce Russia by a wide margin. The only real question is not if Ukraine will win, but if they win a costly grinding attritional victory that ended up costing more materiel and lives (including Russians) than giving them the tools to win quickly and decisively, or if they win quickly and decisively, or if Russian Federation collapses first. This is a modern industrial war and this logic dictates Ukraine victory is about as assured as US victory in the Pacific war over Japan.

[@avpguy11]

Perun did a great video on escalation that touched on this. Not responding or responding weakly to aggression is an escalation in and of itself. If the West threw all its weight into this conflict from the beginning we'd probably see Ukraine knocking on the door of Crimea already.

[@imatiu]

The thing is that, funnily enough, no one wants Ukraine to win, because the risk of Russia lossing and choosing to just nuke Ukraine, which would escalate this conflict to a true World War, is not Zero, it's low yes, but a World War when nukes are involved is too much of a risk for any country to even consider. What most elements of USA and NATO want is that Ukraine continues fighting a war of attrition where Russia doesn't obtain victory and doesn't lose to the point where they might consider using nukes, so that Russia losses resources to the point where they chose to stop the war effort all together. If this were to happen then Russia is weakened politically and economically, USA has Ukraine by the balls and Ukraine will be paying USA and others for decades if not centuries due to the borrowed equipment, which was in many cases outdated and useless for the USA and other nations giving the equipment. Problem here is that Russia knows this, because it's fucking obvious, so Russia is likely to just continue the war effort way past the level USA and NATO expect, which would suck for them because they are also having issues with their local politics, as was seen with the riots in France and USA just being modern USA. In summary, there is the big picture and then the bigger picture which is even more complicated that the conflict alone.

[@Santisima_Trinidad]

​@@imatiu If i had to guess, given the fact Ukraine is joining NATO once the war is over, and the massive amount of food they produce which they can technically withhold/jack up the prices for, they won't actually be paying back all that much money. Partially they'll argue that it was all voluntary donations of equipment, there was no discussions of paying for the equipment, and Partially they'll setup a significant number of very favourable trade deals with Western nations that sent over significant amounts of aid. They will get away with both because A it's true, and B, with significant exports favourable trade deals become highly valuable. If Western nations were to just present a very large bill, Ukraine would just say "that great, we'll get onto paying that. Now, about all that grain you wanted, I'm afraid production costs have gone way up, the price is now 10 times higher than it used to be, I'm sure your very hungry peoples won't mind". It's not an absolute, but i doubt they'll be paying back anywhere near the value of the aid that was sent to them, directly at least.

[@imatiu]

@@Santisima_Trinidad Nope on the paying for weapons at least, USA already has it in writing that Ukraine has to pay them later on with interest on top. Part of the lend lease agreement Biden did.

[@nihluxler1890]

That’s… the most idiotic thing I’ve ever heard. Production of specific weapons and item is not a matter of GDP, there are concrete physical barriers to boosting production to levels where NATO could even compete with the Russians in most critical areas. The Russians have consciously maintained and kept dormant a lot of the industrial capacity and stockpiles that had been constructed by the USSR, specifically for situation like this one, while Europe and the US closed and decommissioned them in an effort to « streamline » their profit-driven industrial complexes, which is why even now, after 500 days of war, NATO can only eek-out a mere 30-35.000 shells a months against the Russians 3 to 500.000. Getting those capabilities back would necessitate a complete reversal of decades of deindustrialization policy, which assuming the west could muster the political will (even as everything else is crumbling and life becomes more and more precarious in those countries) would also take several decades. Btw, the comment about the US industrial capacity « winning WWII » is absolutely hilarious, considering who actually won that war…

[@GojiMet86]

Would you be able to talk about the new proxy struggles in Africa? Russia and Wagner group have fostered and nurtured a very tight relationship with many countries, and their proxies have coup d'Etat their way into power in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. This is making it harder for Ukraine to get support. I even recall that African leaders visitied Kiev, were forced to hide by shelling FROM Russia, and they came out denying that any shelling had happened. Plus, the grain exports have been halted by Russian attacks, but even then many leaders insist Russia is in the right.

[@ianhomerpura8937]

I really think that it's a false flag, something to distract Europe from the events in the Eastern Front. Almost at the same time as the Wagner incursions into Poland, the coup happened in Niger.

[@voinekku]

That's what centuries of colonialism, slave trade and the forced "free" market policies combined with predatory IMF loans and foreign giant conglomerates doing things like exporting food from starvation regions, does.

[@anonymous-hz2un]

After this video, i think he should stick to urban planning, imho

[@dagda1180]

@@anonymous-hz2un What's the problem with the video?

[@mr.politics1388]

Africa is complex is as much a stereotype as it is true but at the time this more important than ever. Even ignoring Ecowas, Congo and Rwanda are also close to war. With more than one major war possibly starting in the near future or maybe not, I would say one should give it a bit more time

[@NothingIsKnown00]

The one thing the Ukrainians absolutely had to avoid was: Throwing their best forces into an all-out offensive right into a fortified defense and lose them. The slow and steady approach is exactly correct.

[@dmytromorawski1955]

Yeah, commanders should be really careful, cause we can’t throw hundreds of thousands of men to sure death like russia did. It would destroy our morale and human resources.

[@tagair211]

I've been waiting for that video ! Thank you as always. My thoughts align with yours. I remember a couple of weeks ago when the Ukrainians advanced in the gap between Robotyne and Verbove everyone was like "Mariupol before September!" And I thought "how ?". There are more lines after line 1 and it's still a long road to the Azov sea

[@AlexVardr]

That would have been the case if there wasn't one the biggest minefields in history in the way, combined with no air superiority and shell shortage. This war is gonna last years more because we in the West (especially us Germans) couldn't get our head out of our ass when it mattered.

[@relvezz6997]

What's funny is they still haven't reached the first line of defence even in that area where they are right next to it. It's basically unimaginable at this point that Ukraine will succeed in their current counter offensive at current pace.

[@specialingu]

@@relvezz6997 people are making a big deal about these defense lines... but they arent stopping the ukrainains currently. thats minefields, artillery etc. its likely that significant advances will be made until theyve destroyed significant amounts of russian equipment.

[@anna-flora999]

​@@relvezz6997"no it's not the first line of defence! It's the 0th line of defence!" Okay but seriously. If the Russians send out troops to dig trenches, lay mine fields, and then defend those lines, how is that not one of the lines of defense?

[@f-man3274]

Oh, Adam, you seem to really be inspired by Perun, haha. Great channel choice, I appreciate

[@Fusilier7]

Bottomline: warfare is very difficult, it's not a videogame, where the player controls the battle like a deity, just pointing and clicking to manoeuvre the units around, does not make you a general. Ironic, since Adam promoted a strategy war game, nevertheless, people have gotten to accustomed into thinking war unfolds like a simulator, predictable moves and countermoves, based on the gaming mechanics, the programme can only do what it's designed to do, so it gives the impression to the player that war and battle, follows linear patterns, making you think you are a legitimate strategist. So to my keyboard warriors, and armchair strategists, unless you have served in any of the armed forces, you are in no position to lecture anyone about the nuances of warfare, if you wanna be smart, take out your notebook and take notes, for once, you might actually learn something outside of virtual reality.

[@ibraheemshuaib8954]

Imagine multiplayer against another competent player, and not a dumb AI. It's still far from real war but gives a better idea of it since the other player is not as predictable as an AI and can quickly adapt to anything you do.

[@FarhadHakimov]

​@@ibraheemshuaib8954Yeah. War games were a thing in the 19th century for this reason. They've come a long way since then, having evolved and been streamlined in many cases, and yet they can do well to teach and educate, if not to represent fully the breadth and depth of the complexity and the horrors.

[@FarhadHakimov]

Still, I agree with @Fusilier7 that these not only taught and entertained, but gave delusions of grandeur to some people (very few people, I should underline), but this is inevitable with all forms of education when it comes to the lawless frontiers of interwebs. Who listens to them, anyway?

[@choryferguson2196]

Thanks for the perspective. I always appreciate your point of view on whatever topic you take on.

[@blackranger7597]

Really distasteful advertisement choice... like advertising Plague Inc. on a pandemic video.

[@batham1185]

Don’t you think it’s kind of in bad taste to have a war game sponsor a video on the Ukraine-Russia war?

[@1k-RebelProductions]

yeah iam also thinking that having the video sponsered by some shit mobile pay2win war game takes a lot of credibility from it

[@c-c-combobreak]

"But what if you want one of those two countries to win ? Well, you can do that in today's sponsor..."

[@user-op8fg3ny3j]

And? The wars in the middle east didn't stop video game companies from capitalising off them because there wasn't that much backlash

[@RFLCPTR]

Thats what you get when watching liberals and not anti-capitalists

[@LimeyLassen]

Dude's gotta pay for groceries somehow.

[@skariaxil]

The issue with large scale combined arms pushes for both parties is that you can't keep it a surprise anymore. A "transparant battlefield", as Millenium7* puts it. Within 20-30km from the frontline you're ALWAYS at risk of having something explosive dropping on your lap, except for when you're in hardened cover. Due to EW there are pockets of safety, but the coverage required to fully hide a combined arms force stands out. Being loads of EW systems concentrated around a weak spot in the defences, and all that.

[@napoleonibonaparte7198]

Ukraine needs more boom boom tools. It needs them consistently to not give the Russians a break.

[@squidysnose69]

No what they need is nato intervention otherwise they wont win the war

[@kx7500]

You need to stop defining any Russia supporters or sympathizers as “far left.”

[@heartache5742]

in russia, communism is right wing, it is just one of our choices for conservatism

[@kx7500]

@@heartache5742 yep.

[@dmytromorawski1955]

Definition of left and right is dead in modern geopolitical field

[@heartache5742]

@@dmytromorawski1955 the geopolitical field is not up to date with really anything, i mean who the fuck is citing poststructuralist philosophy in party manifestos or policy proposals

[@leesnyder9144]

@@heartache5742 Yes, Ideology is only explicitly part of party platforms if the party is denying facts.

[@stevenr.rodriguez9997]

The ad was in kind of bad taste, I'm sure you could have done it in a different video and use like manscaped or whatever VPN or something instead.

[@ignaciobrizzio3999]

two motnhs in counteroffensie, no reaching of first line od russian defense, still not a failure...ssounds like cheerleadding

[@sentteri]

Always happy to see a new citizen of Perunistan. (I did find your lack of Aussie accent a bit lacking. Where is that accent supposed to be from, Kiwiland?)

[@howtoappearincompletely9739]

Hungary, I think.

[@GrebnevNikita]

Good copium, will use as bait

[@rudysmith1552]

​@plazthaltEven if 250000 were dead without Accurate ethnic data or data on what percentage of them were violent prisoners sentenced to long stays in Russian jail. It means almost nothing.

[@alfonsalenius2482]

That sponsor is a bit on the nose, don't you think? LOL

[@koston_varjo3536]

Ad "So don't waste time." *footage shows a nuke falling on Switzerland* As a Swiss citizen, I felt that... Also, thanks for the update

[@Matt64x64]

Jesus what an insensitive sponsor spot, thought you were better than that

[@khakimzhanmiras]

why does this guy keep trying to sugarcoat everything?

[@RaelynnHogan]

That sponsor was an... interesting choice, Adam.. Cant get enough of perun style videos.

[@zarathroxa]

"The ukraine-war, sponsored by conflict of nations" Are you aware how cynical this is? This is a real war with real people dying.

[@zigorro3478]

Perun is a fantastic creator love this out of left field video

[@ophthalmophobicnpc8002]

This video is pure copium ("We dont know the Ukrainian plans", "Probing attacks are still ongoing", "Theyre still holding back most of their reserves"). If Russia had launched a counteroffensive more than two months ago and made these sorts of territorial gains, everyone (including yourself) would be calling it a failure.

[@mathiasrryba]

Ukraine has already made more gains than much longer Russian offensive last year.

[@orrrlllyy3473]

@@mathiasrryba like what? that 9 villages? with maybe 5 buildingS?

[@mathiasrryba]

@@orrrlllyy3473 Yep.

[@orrrlllyy3473]

@@mathiasrryba going according to plan lol

[@mathiasrryba]

@@orrrlllyy3473 Probably not, but at least it isn't the level of cope russian apologists go into when even when they're losing or getting wiped out it's "according to plan".

[@-2nd_morph-686]

The counter attack completely failed, what is here to say

[@3foon58]

Remember 10 months ago this guy said RF deployed everything they had? Remember he sad he is waiting for Russia to collapse? Remember 2 videos saying it is beginning of the end?

[@tomonabudget]

I've been following the whole situation relatively closely. You've provided a very accurate summary of the situation.

[@ThePressurizer]

It seems what they really need are some attack helicopters to counter the alligators and a hefty number of ground-attack/fighter-bomber aircraft.

[@crowleyvoltaire5864]

I'm sorry? Are we still pretending Ukraine ever stood a chance here? Amazing...

[@MrBizteck]

Whats this a *PERUN* Style Powerpoint presentation? Ohh you saucy minx !

[@ZackThoreson]

Perun is great!

[@wadecs3214]

your hole video is basiclly sugar coating the failed offensive

[@stevencooper4422]

I think they should just make a DMZ where the border currently stands and stop the bloodshed.

[@zooring1]

That sponsored ad was incredibly tasteless

[@tvshapur]

A 16min video without a single mention of Ukraine's CATASTROPHIC human losses. You, sir, are a cheerleader.

[@CyBerCat6410]

Yeah keep an eye on those clowns demanding Ukraine make peace with putin.

[@chrisharmon3750]

yeah, let's fight to the last man! no peace! War war war!

[@AssasinWukong]

İs Ukraine winning ? Short Answer : No Long Answer : Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[@kebabsaurusrex1601]

Defensive action is always easier than offensive action. It will take time but I do not doubt Ukraine will win but will take months. Plus when winter hits things will slow.

[@Waldo1122]

Ukraine won't be winning buddy. They're up against a superpower with far more advanced technology than them, far more funds, far more troops, and far better trained.

[@lapapa2019]

I mean the corpses are all gonna still be there.

[@angus7278]

A still corrupt and divided nation but with buildings and infrastructure reduced to rubble, cluster bombs waiting to be triggered for decades, almost half the population gone abroad, an entire generation of men dead or damaged, and billions spent never to be recovered. That’s “winning” for Ukraine. No doubt. Blame Putin all you want and with some justification, but we all know this disaster could have been avoided if the NATO military industrial complex had been reined in.

[@AirWolfAT6]

Please stick to urban planning. Your Russophobia and lack of military acumen is unbearable.

[@alanr4845]

Bro that ad placement is a bit disrespectful no?

[@JM-us3fr]

I don't know, I think a full Ukrainian liberation sounds a bit too optimistic to be a possibility. The war would have to rage on for many more years. Even if Ukraine fully retakes the Donbas region, that only allows them to _just start_ pressuring Crimea by cutting off supply lines, at which point I think Russia would finally try to cut its losses.

[@yakyback]

I love the Perun style content!!

[@DirkusTurkess]

The cope is strong with Adam.

[@alwnz3250]

The main issue here is the Western fear of russian empire collapse (or too fast collapse). The same fear we saw in 1990+. This limits everything.

[@laurencefraser]

I get the distinct impression these days that the Russian empire collapsing would be considered a Good thing... Except for the potential for nuclear weapons to get lost in the process. Though given the number that Russia has managed to 'lose' Anyway...

[@agilemind6241]

@@laurencefraser Even in the 90s the fear wasn't the political collapse it was the loss of stability and what that would mean for their nuclear weapons. In failed states often those rising to power are fanatics, fascists or other people that you really don't want to have nuclear weapons.

[@clivedamagedgoods]

Perun is the man 👍

[@DeWellstein]

Ok, so Adam Something unironically had an add for a war simulation game? Why not for a farming simulator, that would actually had a spicier relevance to the topic of this video.

[@euansmith3699]

"The Perun Format" 😄 This does seem to be a great format for discussing complicated and technical subjects. If it ain't broke; don't fix it.

[@soulouay6136]

Quick answer: No they're not, no one is winning.

[@airbornesnow4541]

no one wins in a war

[@florentin4061]

Thank you

[@ericmacrae6871]

The quick answer is that Russian is winning this war and Ukrainian hasn't even reach the first line of defense

[@_remblanc]

@@ericmacrae6871How are Russians winning when they are still losing ground despite trying offensive still

[@Xenomorphine]

​@@airbornesnow4541 Please explain how nobody lost in World War 2, the Falklands conflict, etcetera...

[@michael_dugan]

Ukraine is now outnumbered following Russian partial mobilization while also lacking air supremacy and firepower superiority and they are fighting a war of attrition. Not a good recipe for success. You also didn’t even mention the fact that since Ukraine started the offensive Russia has launched a so far successful offensive in Kharkov threatening to take Kupyansk which is a huge city in the region. Also some of those accounts you say to follow for coverage are openly pro-Ukrainian while some of the ones you say to avoid are pro Russian so it’s clear you’ve taken a side in this war which in some ways disqualifies your opinion. There’s plenty of genuinely neutral accounts you can follow for info

[@marshalza4379]

My comment will probably go unseen, but still will try to say this: It's weird that so far i've seen the picture around if Ukraine did something "war crime" world would ignore it, and if Russia tried something like that, the media exploded, so far most of the World's media is controlled by the west. So not sure how the author of this video get's it the other way around, but would love to see his process. I've been hearing about Ukraine doing some sh8t since 2014, and most western media was completely silent about it. This even goes beyond to 2008 conflicts in other countries. Just Remember how CNN shut the girl who unexpectedly started to talk about war in Georgia, most of those videos are now deleted.

[@korneplodus4605]

I love how you absolutely skipped part of Ukrainian manpower losses. In any war, when one side goes into attack, it loses more people than the defending side. If war goes on for a longer time (it surely will) and the ratio between Russian/Ukrainian casualties will be even 1:1, the numbers are playing against Ukraine. In general your analysis sounds extremely biased so I slap a huge dislike