US Median Home Prices Are NOT At Record Highs!

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Home Prices have NOT peaked! The direction of the "Market" is down. I use national Indexes found in the FRED Data Base and I find the: Median: price represents the National Housing Market best. "Average" Sales can be distorted by more sales in the lower range or the upper range. The NAR has mentioned that the homes sold were in the upper range closing in on $1 million. My personal thoughts are Foreigners are purchasing expensive homes in the US as a "Safe Haven" and are distorting the indices. There is also the fact that upper range homes are less impacted by higher Mortgage Rates whereas entry level qualifying for a mortgage can be much more difficult as rates rise and become more expensive to own than lease.
Viewing the data from FRED, it is clear that prices peaked in 2022.
I still am forecasting property prices to decline.
This is just a signpost along the way confirming where we are in the Real Estate Cycle Completion. Fortunes are yet to be made.
If you would like to consult, contact West USA 602-942-4200 and ask for Michael Douville
Patience is now required. If you purchase now, you risk losing 30% or more that may take 5-10 years to recover.
However, if you are patient for the next 12-18 months, you might be able to have a Life Changing Opportunity.
I am encouraging Investors in Endangered Cities to move their investments to better markets via an IRC 1031 Tax deferred exchange. This is very inexpensive and does not trigger a tax implication.
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[@vitalsigns6403]

The government wont allow meaningful home price deflation anymore: free $, $0 down fha, loan mods, mortgage forbearance, foreclosure moratoria, on and on. This all keeps home prices and property taxes “higher for longer” with no price discovery or inventory

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for the comment. Yes, everywhere I look, the Data has to be really checked...'Seasonally Adjusted", "Annually Seasonally Adjusted", "Birth-Death Model"........however, following the same data set is extremely important; I have followed the US Median House sales price with FRED for years. There is some merit in the possibility the data can be temporarily distorted by Foreign buying in the upper end and Trophy Properties coming to market; both would drive the median price up. We will know shortly....time to be very cautious. Michael Douville

[@steveosmonson6535]

Good job!

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your comment. Hi Steve, thank you for your kind words. It is very confusing for Investors and Buyers alike. The RE Market has performed beautifully and no one wants the Cycle to end. The narrative of course is everything is fine.....however, late-stage signposts have appeared...there will be a new burst of lower credit scores, lower underwriting standards, less downpayment, stated Income, etc for most of the Federal loans like FHA and VA. It attracts the last group which has been denied loans or are of dubious creditworthiness. This is the last group to buy and the first to default as they are the last ones in with little margin. However, long term, I am a huge BULL...just be careful..... Michael Douville

[@CaptainCaveman1170]

Thank you! All the (astonishingly coordinated) lies about the "new highs" are truly breathtaking. Everyone in the industry knows that in most places, homes CANNOT fetch their May 2022 prices, and haven't been able to for two years.

[@michaeldouville690]

Thank you for your positive comment. There probably is an effort to promote higher prices of houses to illustrate what a great Economy we have. During the Cycle Completion, there is a lot of fluctuation in price as the trend has not yet become apparent. As Melody Wright has pointed out with her price survey, the upper end is much more active than the lower end which has to cause distortions. I have used the same data set for years, but there is no rule that aggregate price cannot spike one last time. However, I believe the trend is for lower prices; buy with caution! Michael Douville

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