Michael Pento: S&P To Drop By 40% When Recession/Deflation Arrives?

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Macro expert and money manager Michael Pento returns for part two of our interview with him in which he suggests that the S&P 500 could drop by 30-40% to around 3,000 points if market forces were allowed to operate naturally. This drop would correspond to a severe recession or deflationary period.
He expresses concern about the permanent monetization of debt, which could significantly impact inflation and growth rates.
Michael also emphasizes that his model provides early warning signs of when major market participants are likely to become nervous and sell, allowing for defensive dividends to be accrued.
To watch Part 1 of this interview with Michael, go to: • Michael Pento: Liquidi...
Visit Michael at pentoport.com/
Or call [phone] or email [e-mail]
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At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world’s top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
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#sandwichgeneration #stockmarketcrash #investingforrecession
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

[@winstonsmith7095]

Stocks should have dropped by about 90% 12 years ago, but ever since it's been the fed whose been driving the markets, and they seem hell bent on never allowing the free market to adjust to fair value.

[@cheaplaughkennedy2318]

Yep and they’re interjections will most likely continue for a very long time.

[@Phila80]

Markets won't drop. To many safety nets. Most important, the US is the #1 economy in the world. China and the rest of world depends on the US economy to buy their $hit. This is how the $ will be protected while foreign investors buy US assets during downturns. Did you read the economic reports today. Consumer spending up, manufacturing up, and household income up. There is no more stumulus and many are back to work.

[@mariocole8104]

So why is what the Fed is doing now so ineffective?

[@ebeaulieu813]

Wish I knew this 50 years ago.

[@SerpentInside]

@@Phila80 No thats will stop. Be so sure. If you give shit (dollars) for stuff, it will end. Previously: Highly valued dollar & high interest rate for that dollar without inflation was very good for US, but now when dollar is trending lower, inflation running out of control and interestrates on the dollar is less than the inflation, both countries and people alike will ditch it faster than a dead horse in a swamp is sinking. Makes no sense to hold dollars at all, in that environment.

[@scotthodor4292]

Nothing better than someone who speaks with knowledge from long time experience. Michael Pento is always a must see. Thanks Adam!

[@nastypiglosi1788]

Also don't fight the trend

[@tonynewman3631]

@@nastypiglosi1788 Yep - run with the market, however crazy it might be.

[@WilliamBenedict]

I really like Mr. Pento. He is smart, humble, and a straight talker. Thank you. ❤

[@martintheguitarist]

Would be good to mention the past performance of money managers when they come on the show.

[@grimaffiliations3671]

Turns out this guy had no clue what he was talking about

[@jeffasti8625]

Incredibly generous of Michael Pento to share his investment outline and macro analysis.

[@utpharmboy2006]

i do the same thing as Pento when im in deep thought explaining a very well researched and complex subject....i close my eyes or look away. i think it represents honesty and not changing ones information output based on visual feedback cues from those you are conversing with. narcissists and sociopaths do the exact opposite, so watch out for that. thats how i can tell he has done his due diligence on what he is saying. nobody has a crystal ball but i can tell Mr. Pento is doing everything he can for his investors. major respect for that.

[@massonh7476]

PENTO is my nr. 1 favorite Wealthion guest. 👌

[@HiranyaGarbh.]

Indeed! Adam has been doing a brilliant job as well.

[@massonh7476]

@@HiranyaGarbh. Adam is the best economic interviewer I know.

[@HiranyaGarbh.]

@@massonh7476 sure.. modesty with simplicity meets immense knowledge. And cherry on top is honesty.

[@SS-re8pd]

Thank you Adam and Mr Pento. I appreciate that Mr Pento comes on these programs and shares his knowledge and views.

[@DarR1299]

Although I have followed Michael Pento since his Peter Schiff days. I just tuned-in to your channel and subscribed. You're a great interviewer who lets his guest speak without interruption.

[@ehm5389]

Michael Pento is such an excellent guest, one of the very best. Always a must watch, so thank you for having him back. In the interesting discussion afterwards I once again hear an underlying sense of surprise / incrdulity at what is currently happening in the markets; however some of us aren't at all surprised, since we remember David Hunter's forecasts from 18 months ago.

[@stephenbush7200]

I subscribe to about 70 channels on KZbin that deal with the markets and stocks and I'm convinced that listening to 19 out of 20 of them is a waste of time and mental energy. Worse yet I don't know who the 1 out of 20 is that provides trustworthy information!

[@indivisibleman8596]

Look for trends in the info

[@MichaelHarrington17]

The Midweek Reality podcast is well worth it to keep things real.

[@heidihelo5773]

Please come back. Thank you!! We much appreciate your knowledge. 😊

[@dianarabbanii2]

Retiring in 20 years? Due to inflation, you may need upwards of $2.6 million to maintain your existing lifestyle, with the ongoing effects of high inflation, lower forecasted stock market returns, and stagnant wages, achieving a secure early retirement could be more challenging than ever before.

[@KangMinsu122]

@@EmiliaAbelard Very True Such considerations can certainly have a role when I think about whether I ought to buy into a share. But I never purchase purely on that basis, i always have to seek the adv!ce of my financial-planner who has helped me gain $985k in a well-diversified portfoIio that has experienced exponential growth

[@KangMinsu122]

@Chester Hitchcock Personally I work with Viviana Marisa Coelho a registered Investment advisr. Quite renowned, search her name to get in touch

[@scottjuarez9549]

@@KangMinsu122 I looked up Viviana Marisa Coelho online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-markt

[@chrisdonaghy1504]

Michael is my favorite guest on your program.

[@sllamco]

Thanks Adam for putting up interviews like this

[@gh-dw3tg]

Great guest. Love Michael Pento and the show....better than mainstream media. Great video...keep rockin!

[@johncurrie1789]

Adam, Wealthion is becoming my number one KZbin channel! Love Michael. He's awesome!

[@pvtrout]

Once again great guests and great content.

[@larrylhughesjr9280]

Thanks Bunches You Two...

[@rsollecito5947]

Look forward to your next visit

[@johnrubino7604]

Enjoyed the show today on this Memorial Day Weekend!

[@garyschneider6644]

I particularly appreciate John and Mikes’s comments here. Thanks for sharing something of New Harbor’s models!

[@daverave5743]

I'd rather miss some temporary gains by being out of the bubble market, than lose money permanently along with the opportunity to buy lifetime bargains by being in the market when it goes down. This is risk avoidance and positioning for great gain. I'll be patient, esp. when getting paid to wait in treasuries. The insanity of the present market psychology will come to a screeching halt. My FOMO is Fear Of Missing Opportunity.

[@mileysong1117]

Again excellent quality !! Thank you to Mr Michael also. 💫💫💫

[@ianmerski5537]

Actually really good commentary at the end

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤

[@arresthillary9502]

If nothing else, Pento has the best vocabulary on youtube

[@rdm5546]

Michael Pento made a excellent presentation. I like him.

[@wheatcandle]

Great Portfolio Strategies from Pento

[@colechapman4055]

one of the best interviews every time!

[@tonylochner4730]

What is michael's 25 yr return - chart vs sp500 ???

[@HiranyaGarbh.]

Such a wholesome risk management guided by experience and backtested scientific models makes so much sense when managing money. However, individuals trading with their own money so often try to front run markets in expectation of higher returns and burn themselves in the process. This is irrespective of whether we are in a melt up or melt down. Thanks both Adam Taggart and Michael Pento to bring some sanity in an otherwise insane world of trading and investing. I learnt that there is no point in positioning for black swan events as its oxymoronic. One can only manage risks however low or extreme the possibility of an event is.

[@sng4ever899]

Michael IS GREAT!

[@michaeldonnellan8630]

Great idea, comparing Models: Thank you :

[@chrismiami1332]

Love both the interview and post interview dialogue. Thank you very much

[@whisper1736]

Thank you Adam. Good Memorial day to you.

[@jonc8179]

Another great interview Adam! Valuable content!

[@HiranyaGarbh.]

The post talk post mortem is the most unique feature of Wealthion. Thats such a great value add.

[@marcgerges1380]

Brilliant always brilliant with Michael Pento. Thank you Adam

[@calstanke6170]

@20:30 Correct except that is when yield curve control starts...thats also when the USD declines relative to real assets (gold, silver, land, oil etc)

[@T4nkcommander]

Yup. And as the fiat currencies are [intentionally] hyperinflated away, it'll be CBDC to the "rescue".

[@calstanke6170]

@@T4nkcommander The only question is what will the "black swan" event be to usher in CBDCs. The boomers HATE the idea, but the NWO is going to push it through anyway. Look at all the rights we gave up after 911 and the 2008 GFC. People just willingly give up everything. My guess is they first need to get all the guns (2A) , before they can start the wild stuff.

[@bigqueue]

I enjoyed the interview with Mike as well as the post game analysis and views of the new harbor folks. Yes, I am interested in more insights from New harbor, and I'm just about convinced that I need to reach out with some questions.

[@johnbautiste]

Almost commented yesterday. "Could you please do a show on what to invest in if the market collapses?" You read my mind.

[@justneal99]

God bless Pento. Indeed a rare find.

[@paulcramer5671]

Pento has been saying this on KWN for 12 years

[@massageandunwind8787]

Thank you for the content

[@feral5404]

"If market forces were ALLOWED" ... Why should I believe that they will be allowed? Why shouldn't I hedge for the Fed taking action and truncating the downturn? Just seems unreasonable at this point to believe the market will behave logically.

[@adamsleath]

that's the point. I doubt they will let it correct without interference. but I cannot say with anything approaching certainty.

[@chiragmehta8212]

So true. They will never allow it. They need to inflate all bubbles to win elections and force their agenda.

[@mikepepper8395]

Your show continues to get better and better Adam.

[@carrimycalifor]

I always love hearing from Michael Pento!

[@MajorAALAN]

damn ur hot af

[@chrisbytwerk3712]

Love Wealthion. A wealth of good insights.

[@jeffkolp3526]

This is what people need, data, moving thoughts based on current events and data - remove emotion! Hope fully at years end I will have enough saved - as a separate portfolio portion to participate in with his model. more detailed, informed conversations like this are greatly needed! Cheers

[@hollygardner5076]

This was an awesome video

[@siddeshkale7626]

double episodes on weekend..... pleazzzzz!! Wealthion better than movies.

[@favor4afavor823]

Everything up today

[@robinorga528]

Great show

[@Poochie1]

52:44 Dude is working with P&F! Respect!!

[@LPJCP]

@ 31 minutes there's a chart about M2 contraction. According to MV = PT, one has to consider velocity with the money supply and it has increased by 10% while the money supply is contracting. This holds up nominal gdp (that's PT)

[@jmcmob608]

Thank you very much...

[@MichaelHarrington17]

What we see from Japan is yield curve control where the central bank keeps long rates from rising by buying sovereign bonds. The Fed has/can become the lender of first and last resort as it writes checks to buy and hold 30 yr Treasuries. The Fed now shows $1 trllion (?) in unrealized losses on their portfolio. They never need to mark to market.

[@nicholasalderman773]

Adam, Thanks for the interview another great one. I am curious as we see this mini AI boom recently, how this coincides with David Hunter's call for the crack up boom (and Jim Rogers to some extent). The market seems to have the great ability to move you of your thesis, only to prove your thesis after you give in lol. Love to hear your thoughts. (or david hunters); I could see conditions setting up to see this come to fruition, AI boom, cease fire in Ukraine, better than expected EPS, debt ceiling raised....the list goes on.

[@jonathanventura2257]

“We created a model so your feelings will not get in the way” - Michael Pento

[@michaeljoyce3187]

Concur with all the analysis its a no brainer eccept

[@pbr549]

Adam there is a cost associated with hiring these firms it appears 100k. It’s understandable they need to make a profit. They were the same 30+ years ago as well. I have noticed through the years my plans did not change but the companies I used Datek, E*Trade, scottfade, tdameritrade, soon to be Schwab. This weekend as a matter of fact. Fees are a parasitic drag. The 60/40 rule tells me there are 2 basic choices stocks and bonds.

[@rednose1966]

You are correct about fees. It can be difficult to navigate profitability on a consistent basis without a good guide. I am taking my money and calling it tuition rather than paying fees. When I do not see the desired returns I call it paying tuition. Unfortunately tuition can run high at times. When my trades are rewarding it has been very profitable. A gamble would really have a good time making options trades rather than playing a game of cards or betting on a sporting event.

[@rodiculous9464]

He didn't say it costs 100k he said that's the minimum account for them to manage. They're not going to waste their time on small fry accounts this is pretty typical for money managers

[@mattanderson6672]

Brilliant interview, Mike is one of the best. Also love Mike and John for their analysis I've said it before, and I'll say it again: We're here for the charts and data!

[@Notrocketscience101]

What the hell is growing about this guy? Do you know how to Google? This guy is a disaster for your finances.

[@biden-putin-stalin]

I love Michael Pento as he has done tons of work and articulates it very well. There is no doubt about where he stands. Possible outcome: Just an alternative: As wolf Richter and Ed Hyman say: The economy is floating on a sea of money. To control inflation and to reduce the asset bubbles the supply of money must come down. How does that happen? Money is created through debt. The Federal Reserve and the Federal government have taken on trillions of debt, thus there is a sea of money out there. Money is destroyed when the debt is paid off. The Federal government has no requirement to ever pay off the debt, and has no plans to do it, ever. The central bank is reducing the balance sheet, slowly, and there is a question regarding their desire or ability to let it run down. If you as a consumer are given a thousand dollars to go buy a loaf of bread, and every other shopper is given the same, the bread that used to cost $3 will slowly rise over time until the price finally reaches $1000. The sea of money that is out there because of runaway government debt that will never be paid off may cause inflation that is much worse than now and could last, well, forever, until the price of everything reaches its maximum given the amount of money to be applied to each item or service. Eventually, the long term bond market will catch onto this and interest rates could rise sharply. All asset classes and prices will adjust to much higher inflation and much higher interest rates.

[@tatersquad2000]

PCE coming in hot 🔥

[@dillonsawyer9377]

Big Michael😊 thanks

[@realbigugly]

I just turned off CNBS.

[@overengineer7691]

GLD might have dropped but I can still sell bullion to my dealer for a $40 premium. I think volatility will only a problem for those paper gold traders

[@Rod1879]

You have one of the best if not the best on a wide range of macro analysis. I have never seen Jim Bianco on your show. He would be a great addition to your current lineup of regulars. Thanks again for a great show.

[@Wealthion]

Thank you for the kind words. Jim B has been on the program several times & I've recently extended an invite for him to return.

[@algreen273]

What Michael showed is useful usable information for investors. What the other guy showed is a reporting dashboard. I do not need you to tell me the gold is up or down, I need your insight to what that meant. That is the difference between education and commercial.

[@Robin35758]

Thank you for the interview Adam. Mr. Pento's mid-week reality check is $50 per year. I have been listening for about three months and believe it to be well worth the price.

[@NA-su3jk]

Great guest, love when he comes on, thank you. I dont get one thing: in his model, the current slot (2) and the one he sees next (1) both feature allocation to $TLT..... HIs comments, however, indicate a strong expectation that rates will rise going forward, maybe forever... so why allocate to TLT if expecting rates to climb? Thank you

[@alikalka]

Good question.

[@1Skeptik1]

Observation: The S&P is up over 12% YTD. The average American is losing purchasing power for the past 12 months (I call that a recession). Shadow Stats tells us real inflation is much higher than "official" inflation. If the price of a commodity can be manipulated it will be and that includes the price of money itself.

[@tonylochner4730]

And an advisor that BEATS the SPX and skips all the downtrends completely!!!

[@jimscherer8072]

Bring Mike back !

[@Moreormore]

Can Mr Pento tell us what kind of returns he got in 2022.

[@theinflationsituation8870]

Very generous of Mr. Pento! If I had $100K, he'd be my guy.

[@jameskelly9243]

How do you move gold in and out?????

[@PelicanIslandLabs]

GLD

[@henrypadilla7571]

Use PHYS

[@backwoodsbungalow9674]

At 20:48 "turn off CNBS" and watch Wealthion. 😎 Hold onto your 3% fixed rate mortgage. ☮️

[@jbwentworthe6082]

Adam - any chance for a conversation on "Coreweave" - the "Nvidia" arm? Some think it is the next "Enron" model.

[@ridethecurve55]

Predictions are like assholes; Everybody's got one. I can't count just how many years Mr. Pento has been on KZbin making these pearl-clutchings. Just tune him out, and do yourself a favor.

[@nmdale78]

In that post liquidity crisis moment do we think inflation linked bonds, which would surely have dived during the recession would be a good position?

[@CalvinMorris-cf8jk]

going up every day. hello.

[@KarlJonsson-dn7iw]

I'm looking for a Silver Volatility Index

[@HaHaHa-mt8di]

I checked - there is no CMBS channel. May be I misunderstood?

[@backwoodsbungalow9674]

CNBS 😎

[@HaHaHa-mt8di]

@@backwoodsbungalow9674 🙏

[@larryfine4719]

GVZ - wow, I never heard of that index before. Pure gold! (pun intended)

[@mlmichael261]

If you just do the contrary of what youtube tells you, what happens to your portfolio?

[@daveforgot127]

He said it himself you look at yields.

[@karlbork6039]

What he goes into at 19:00 is very scary. The FED does not control long-term interest rates.

[@arresthillary9502]

A micro example of the future: PWCC They were loaning money on sports cards that were inflated by stimmies. The asset value dropped when the money dried up and PWCC needed to be bailed out by Fanatics

[@QuadTap]

The market is loving the painful recession and dramatic market downturn today

[@rivermac8508]

Pento: add JP to your model especially if you hold treasuries! Adam: interview Weston Nakamura (new @Blockworks) as he explains the important role JP plays in treasury bond prices (biggest buyer) and why TLT plunged through the floor last year (spoiler, it was the high DXY and high hedging FX costs that led to the unwind of the JPY/USD treasuries trade).

[@RubbaDubbaDooskie]

If the long bond yield does hit 10% or more, I fail to understand why anyone would buy anything else(that's dollar denominated). One could just hold the thing to maturity and never touch a stock at that point.

[@TomMe-nx8dk]

Why is Pento NOT one of your recommended advisors?

[@Scott_LastNameRedacted]

what does it mean "when high yields blow out" ? does it mean when high yields end? junk bonds crash??

[@schlepers]

Just depends on what the 60/40. If its Black Rock 60/40 then yea, pointless like most portfolios from Scwab, TD, MER. If tactical, then 60/40 can be very powerful on whats in the 60/40.

[@hildedewaele5069]

Hi Adam and Mike , do you know an adviser , money manager , as honest as you , helping European investors ? I would be very, very gratefull 🥰. Hilde

[@tonylochner4730]

Yes, gold will be sold for liquidity, it will have bids!

[@mikepepper8395]

This guy loves the diffusion index more than I do.. 🎉😂