Well, DELTARUNE Chapter 3 & 4 Are Releasing Soon?

A whole lotta evidence has lead me to believe that DELTARUNE Chapters 3 & 4 might be releasing sooner than we all thought. Let's chat about that!
[Spoilers for UNDERTALE / DELTARUNE]
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[Credits / Links]
DELTARUNE Website: deltarune.com
#undertale #deltarune #UTDR

[@HarryButHarry]

Heya! Thanks for watching, I'll be back with something familiar soon. ('Read more' for corrections) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Support on Patreon: www.patreon.com/harrybutharry Tip on Ko-fi: ko-fi.com/harrybutharry Join the Discord here: discord.com/invite/MyHM8wq4UW ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ At 10:16, I say Chapter 1 released in 2019 when, in reality, it released in 2018. I must've been looking at the Nintendo Switch release date, which was in 2019. This makes the calculation for the amount of days in between the chapters incorrect - instead of 687 days, it is 1052 days (around 3 years). Still, I think my point stands that a 3-year development cycle for Chapter 3 & 4 is a reasonable estimate.

[@alanmoon2448]

the first chapter released in 2018 bro

[@whatsHisF]

​@@alanmoon2448brodie literally addresses it in the comment you're reading

[@shitpostmania6061]

iirc, the actual development of chapter started late 2019 or early 2020. As they spent time trying out new game engine to make chapter 2 (tho they went back to gamemaker). So ch2 could've been released way earlier if they just used gamemaker since start.

[@user-TheTrueGibly]

seeing the dark world in chapter 3 is already spoilers enough, he probably just can't find anything to show off without spoiling the theme. Every chapter allows you to explore dark/light world, so he probably threw those minor light world interactions in as he knew it wouldn't spoil much.

[@user-TheTrueGibly]

so I doubt chapter 4 will be light world focused

[@JonathanMeyer-o4m]

Y'know what's one of my favorite things about Toby Fox? he communicates, even when there's nothing to say. his last several newsletters have just been like "we're still working, it going to be a while, but its coming." I guaruntee the Hollow Knight community would be in way less restlessness and disarray if Team Cherry would communicate at all, even if there isn't really much to say

[@personexisting123]

That probably contributed a lot to the insanity of the hollow knight fandom, waiting is one thing, waiting with very little information or developer communication is a whole other beast

[@nickfarace9339]

I mean, not saying you are wrong here but, we got WAY more tan just "we are still working" from the last two letters. We got a pretty detailed breakdown of exactly where 4 was in development!

[@SkulkOfRoses]

this is also one of the many things that Relogic have going for them too, monthly updates on the state of Terraria content, whether that be 1.4.5, the graphic novel or what

[@JonathanMeyer-o4m]

@@SkulkOfRoses agreed

[@mrblakeboy1420]

yanderedev:

[@a_major_in_stupidity]

we better not get GTA6 before chapter 3

[@Balloonest]

If GTA 6 comes first, then you know you're slow

[@MeatShtik]

I can't wait to play Deltarune Chapter 10 in 2050 while I wait for GTA 7

[@juzox5161]

SBR being animated before Chapter 3&4 gets released

[@jacobrodriguez7365]

​@@MeatShtikonly seven chapters are planned

[@whocaresaboutthename6850]

​@@jacobrodriguez7365Not confirmed, there could be a option for scrolling down, and there are indeed files for Chapter 8 to 10 and even Chapter 10

[@MeloniestNeon]

Haven't finished watching yet, but Toby just tweeted that his friends had played through an unfinished but fully playable Chapter 4! (and they enjoyed it, but that was always a given) This could mean that we get the next two chapters this year, likely after the usual fall release window, but we could easily get a release date this fall if nothing else!

[@Renamin]

@@MeloniestNeon Honestly even if we get it in december or even a release date shown in december I am happy

[@randomlittleidot]

he never said fully playable. however, i pray we get 3 + 4 in fall

[@MeloniestNeon]

@@randomlittleidot I mean, "played through" implies the whole chapter to start and finish is playable, in some form. Doesn't mean every room, enemy, or puzzle is fully finished and polished, just that the game is able to be played start to finish.

[@randomlittleidot]

@@MeloniestNeon ok! fair enough

[@anothername2557]

wasnt it that they played just one mechanic to test it out? like he clarified, an unchanged version of chapters 1 n 2 with that mechanic?

[@michaelyanni6061]

7 Developers,seven human souls, OH MY GOD!

[@Youpi-n1f]

WE CAN BREAK THE BARRIERS

[@hibilbo4755]

please do not kill the dev team, the game will never get done then

[@questionmarkquestionmarkques]

those are the seven main ones but they arent the only people working on the game

[@dreamsolaris]

King Fox wants to collect human devs, 7 of them, it's his ultimate goal

[@Yuti640]

Nah, Toby is a monster, so he has a monster SOUL

[@ZebraDragon21]

my prediction for the release is December. not only is it the perfect amount of time for toby and the team to finish and polish the chapters, but the month itself is also relevant. and I think we're definitely going to get more Dess related lore in the next two chapters.

[@majesticfirebird2310]

I like the idea, chapters 3 & 4 would make such a wonderful Christmas present 😊

[@ruthenium6648]

I hope we find her. Poor Noelle

[@jollyjadentnt7963]

@@ruthenium6648There is a lost girl, and we must find her…

[@PNats-fg4bw]

In fact we are getting them on the December Holiday

[@realPurpleOrb]

In more ways than one, December 25th would be perfect. -Holiday Family -Releases on a holiday, like Chapter 1 -Great Christmas present

[@insertnamehere1398]

actually (idk what you were thinking) chapter 2 took 2 years AND 11 months to finish. but thats only because toby's wrist broke and they spent a lot of time changing engines just to find out their initial engine was fine

[@HarryButHarry]

yeah, I got my dates a bit mixed up there. I accidentally put the year of the Chapter 1 Nintendo Switch release in my notes. I did make a correction in the pinned comment. Even then, I think the estimate of a three-year dev cycle for two chapters is reasonable now, especially with the troubles they had during Chapter 2's development.

[@RaidSpinel]

As a Gamemaker user Gamemaker is not fine, but it's unique and powerful enough that switching is a real hassle. It's not intuitive what's easy and/or possible in another engine, but the corporate entity behind Yoyo Games has been pushing for a subscription model but removing features from cheaper and otp versions, and an obnoxious partnership with Opera GX gave them more excuses to move features people have had access to to subscription models (including making executable files). Also, it has a reputation for being a lot more like RPG maker than it really is, not quite assetflip machines like Unity or Unreal, but plenty of poorly made ideaguy games are associated with Gamemaker and its Visual Language. Supposedly Toby&Co have a working relationship with the ground level Yoyo Games team which is cool, based on things he's said about features for the engine, but I would never recommend it to anyone. It's hard to switch and reaching into your wallet at all times. That's a rant I'm tired and saw red at the unintentional implication GMS:2 was fine

[@MarcusGronkowski]

Also, Covid/quarantine played a huge role in delaying Chapter 2

[@glasses6524]

didn’t he also script out the whole game?

[@Bits0910]

Ok so we know that chapter 3,4 and 5 will be an WORK OF ART at this point, i cant be more excited to play this

[@cherrybombwaffles518]

my prediction is that by the time we get the summer newsletter, chapter 3 will be complete, while chapter 4 will be nearing completion. my predicted release date was either November or December 2024, but yours sounds possible too. either way, great analysis dude. hopefully you're right though, because the wait has been dreadful for me

[@beigelbites]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but toby already said in the last newsletter that chapter 3 is complete if not dang near complete, right? And that chapter 4 only has a few more things left? I wouldn't exclude the possibility that we get a release date in the summer newsletter.

[@SapoAgiota]

Toby said chapter 3 is completed and chapter 4 is almost fully completed, we might get chapters 3 and 4 by the end of the year or by the start of next year

[@randomlittleidot]

@@SapoAgiotachapter 4 isn’t really ALMOST done, i’d assume its a bit more than halfway complete (steamrolling takes a long time)

[@DamageMaximo]

chapter 3 is complete

[@pancakes8670]

That's already the case. There isn't going to be a summer newsletter, as Toby said he won't release any more newsletters until the chapters are out

[@CoreyTVTheEpicDavid8]

chapter 3 is DEFINITELY done now, if not, 99.9% complete. Toby also said a couple of days ago that he had some of his friends play the unfinished chapter 4, so im betting that chapter 4 is atleast 65-75% done in general, and 85% content complete.

[@LemonLover110]

Where did Toby ever said that his friends played the unfinished Chapter 4? I looked on his Tumblr and Twitter but found nothing. Could you please tell me where you got this from?

[@LemonLover110]

Nevermind I was just a dumbass and I didn't notice it somehow

[@elliotsturtplus340]

To be fair I imagine chapter 4 will probably be a short chapter as in a sorta break between chapters 3 and 5 so more of hometown which I’m actually ok with

[@namelessnavnls8060]

I'm so glad I get to experience Deltarune blind, unlike my experience with Undertale, which I learned about from the internet and had just.. relentlessly spoiled for me despite literally everyone warning me not to watch stuff about it without playing it first. No one to blame for that one but myself honestly. I'm happy to play through Deltarune as it was meant to be played though, it's refreshing and wonderful.

[@GameJam230]

After he gave one of the last progress updates for Chapter 3, I have thoroughly believed that Chapters 3 and 4 could come out by late this year or early next at the LATEST. Their development has only been getting more and more efficient, and it seems like they've found an extremely good stride in development and a really good team size. You can't have too few or each person gets burnt out fast, but too many cooks in the kitchen spoils the broth too. Having a proper manager with a moderately sized team seems perfect for this.

[@wix-1-3dgcjt6]

ia am 100% convinced that it's coming out this year too.

[@Zephyr713]

My prediction is, Toby Fox is psychic and is waiting until I leave to go camping for two weeks and he will release then

[@LevGreen-Wells]

Please go camping at your soonest convenience, we can speed up the process!!!!

[@ThatOneFlowey]

Bijuu Mike when fnf weekend 1 releases ass moment

[@LadWithTheHat]

real

[@KiraJ-ru7ll]

Real (except I'm not camping, it's something else I'll be doing)

[@KiraJ-ru7ll]

*PLANE*

[@uhhumm-l6o]

Also wanted to mention that Toby underneath the twitter post talking about the new newsletter this month, he mentions that some of his friends played through Chapter 4, meaning the entire chapter is in an at least playable state. That means the team could already have started work on steamrolling for quality control and bugtesting.

[@HarryButHarry]

Yeah, we're officially in the "Toby's Friend Playing The Chapter" stage of development now. Wait...... "Friend"...? 🤠

[@uhhumm-l6o]

@@HarryButHarry N-NO NOT AGAIN-!

[@stardust-reverie]

@@HarryButHarryf fff ri end ins side m m me

[@_Blu3e]

​@@uhhumm-l6o friend inside me

[@loganthecoolcatdude4183]

We love Toby Fox

[@JamesonTheFamouson]

We all love the foam shower guy🤷‍♂️

[@TinkleTinkle-r8f]

Don’t be so parasocial dude, he doesn’t know you. You’re nothing but a statistic to bro

[@Supercub-fp1qb]

@@TinkleTinkle-r8f extremely loud incorrect buzzer

[@castery7037]

I love you bro

[@Dragon_Gamer8181]

@@TinkleTinkle-r8f Bros going through his joker arc

[@underdeveloptcorrupt]

While nothing has been directly confirmed by Toby Fox, a well-known member of the GameMaker community, Shauna Spaulding, has recently stated they've been hired into the team. The exact time period when she was hired is unknown to my knowledge however. EDIT: A few other things to note- Chapter 2 is the most content heavy chapter in the game, with several factors that played into the start of its development which made it take longer than anticipated. These issues, like what game engine the rest of the game would be made in, have been sorted out. So not only do they have the base engine to work with figured out for the rest of the game, they're also working on smaller chapters, with more people on board, which could re-frame estimates for when chapters will be releasing. Really good video by the way!

[@PNats-fg4bw]

Sara Spalding did confirm in one of her latest videos that she was in fact working on Deltarune

[@lybon6972]

How do we know chapter 2 is the most content heavy? I know it needed the most work to set up given that the engine was remade and all but I figure every dark world is going to be as involved as cyber city

[@underdeveloptcorrupt]

@@lybon6972 it was in one of the newsletters. Toby said chapter 2 was the most content heavy, followed by explaining that chapter 3 was going to be the most 'unique' chapter in terms of gameplay.

[@Theking-vx6zp]

tbh I dont really believe Toby here. He is known to severely underestimate the scope of the game, like how he said that cyber city is going to be the smallest part of the chapter. Even if he already completely mapped out every chapter beforehand, sometimes you just dont know the scope of something until you actually fully start working on it.

[@underdeveloptcorrupt]

​@@Theking-vx6zp this is also a good viewpoint to have, especially when it comes to something like game development. i completely forgot about cyber city's size before chapter 2's release, good catch!

[@yanifigeroua1719]

The fact i replay chapter 1 and 2 everyday

[@epicgamer2502]

So basically we're getting it in the next 3 - 6 months

[@Alright281]

Just no more than 8 months of a wait

[@clemmintime]

js wish it was shorter im so hyped

[@LadWithTheHat]

my guess is early 2025

[@juanj3351]

As a story teller and making my own stories as a kid. I always had the ending first. I believe chapter 7 in terms of script or ending is already set and everything is carefully being places in motion for toby to get to the ending HE wants (not the ending we want) because he said that he had the ending to the game already so thats a given. Nothing ofc has probably been work on for any of the kater chapters other than script/story purposes in my speculation as a small time writer

[@jonarhax3388]

I like to imagine tobi has a vault in his house dedicated to a little script about the very ending of deltarune

[@Arisoup]

@@jonarhax3388lmao that's good 😭

[@DDub04]

I was in middle school when Undertale came out, and by the time chapter 5 comes out I’ll probably have graduated college. I am willing to wait because I believe Deltarune will be a masterpiece. I truly hope it’s seen through to its best.

[@nevergonnagiveyouupnevergo2795]

it’s already a masterpiece imo

[@Catishcat]

October 31 2024 for Ch3-4, December 25 2025 for Ch5, September 15 2028 for Ch6-7 and I will stand by it.

[@CoreyTVTheEpicDavid8]

@@Catishcat I like how you put chapter 5 as Christmas day... coincidence?

[@zariya0915]

Great bday gift for me ig in 2028 😭

[@cannonballking7]

I think it's pretty likely that we are going to get it this year, and while I personally am thinking more December to fall into that hot button release window, I am aware Toby and his team aren't money men so it is anyone's game. I feel like the two chapters will likely release for $15 USD as it's price point, but I'm almost certain that with it we're going to get major sales or even a discounted final package when the game is fully complete. Overall it seems like development is decently smooth sailing now that the major hurdles were crossed during the initial development of Chapter 2 and now there is more framework in place to allow for future development to occur without having to overhaul. And if I want to go out on a major limb I think chapter 5 will be done by late 2025 - early 2026 and the final game will be fully released at 2028, though this is major prediction and simply based off the facts outlined and the likelihood of more people being hired on as things develop. Overall cool video which lays out all the info in a succinct manner and it's good to hear another person with more laid back ability to discuss potential release dates, when around all the people apparently losing their minds over a pretty reasonable development time for a smaller team. Keep up the great work and have a lovely day :D

[@Ongle_Spongle]

I know it’s probably not going to happen, and not to sound impatient, but I really hope that chapters 3-4 get released for pc *&* switch on the same day. I don’t want to go through waiting a whole *week* just to play it on switch like last time, but I’ll do it if I have to! 😭

[@starnemi6825]

as a fellow switch player, hey, at least it wasnt LONGER than a week. could you imagine having to avoid those spoilers for a month, or even longer? 😭

[@AbsolutelyAri1]

I don't even care were not getting 3 more chapters and instead getting 2. I just want SOMETHING atp 😭

[@cactoos143]

i had a Divine Vision back in january that it WILL be out by the end of 2024, so theres your answer right there !

[@CrabbChips]

with the way toby talks about them i think something would have to go deeply wrong for chaoters 3 and 4 to not release in 2024

[@LitFreshGirl]

4:49 I love this little detail you added, just to show your appreciation for Toby’s hard work!

[@DiviDivo]

this is one game i’m not waiting to go on sale to buy

[@dmclsl03]

All these talks about the launch of the game makes me happy and hopeful for Deltarune again I'm just praying for a Holiday 2024 release pleaseeeeeeeeeeeee

[@ecstaticwooper368]

honestly, my biggest hope for the chapter is just that it has the same level of impeccable attention to detail as the first 2 (with obscure interactions like when you re-encounter the first Rudinn and it says "Presumably a different Rudinn from last time appeared!" which made me laugh way harder than it should've) if it does I swear I'll spend hours just exploring every tiny corner of the game to find all the random easter eggs and it's gonna be SO FUN

[@lightningburst428]

I am betting BOTH kidneys this next newsletter is gonna be a good one. No, you can't have my kidneys.

[@Renamin]

Ill get one of your kidney then

[@melodyMonger413]

​@@Renaminlet me have the other one

[@AbsolutelyAri1]

Can I have your appendix?

[@Renamin]

@@melodyMonger413 sure

[@TheTrueXaver]

can i have the third?

[@FeliksTheGoblin]

My autism can’t take this

[@makutas-v261]

real I hate the wait

[@Walkhanien]

@@makutas-v261well better waiting than a rushed game, right? Patience is what we need rn

[@makutas-v261]

@@Walkhanien Sadly yes

[@Digital_is_silly]

@@WalkhanienYou are filled with PATIENCE 🩵

[@Ghost-ul8eu]

Maybe Toby should dial it back how about 5 chapters instead of 7 .Im worried this game might be too big and too ambitious to pull off. I mean 6 years isn't the worst but what if this game doesn't release until 2030 something. By then most Deltarune fans will have moved on to raise a family.

[@SpamDustt411]

Oh Friend. I'm so excited to get Inside those new Chapters in some months. And hopefully we'll get the Newsletter in some days, it's a great day to be quite Me self!

[@Vectoris-ud8el]

3:25 Also a new programmer, Shaun Spalding.

[@Pink_Woz]

As nice as it is that Toby plans to release multiple chapters at the same time, I'd much rather just wait in between each chapter. But either way, I hope things continue to go smoothly and we get Chapters 3 and 4 as soon as possible. No rush. Just excited

[@tuikyo]

Christmas 2024, take it or leave it.

[@CacildaCabra]

It is Christmas just week away, Can you belive it Chrismas only a week away, O wow Can you belive it Chrismas just a week away

[@RonZ234]

​christmas tomorrow

[@jessiepoliuyim651]

Pablo profile picture?!?!

[@zetaright]

Christmas yesterday

[@FeliksTheGoblin]

@@CacildaCabraNoelle moment

[@n.ar.]

thanks for making a video like this, it doesnt really matter if it releases on octuber but i needed to see SOMETHING related to development and get my hopes up :'D

[@PNats-fg4bw]

Here's my prediction: Chapters 1&2 are getting small glowups in terms of quality standards to match 3&4 (nothing crazy). We will probably get that update before 3&4, since toby says he's waiting for the next GameMaker update to release the newsletter (it makes no sense for him to wait for an engine update to release a newsletter otherwise). This GameMaker function is about changing what game you are playing on the go, which they will use in the chapter selection screen, every chapter will be a different "game" to put it like that. Also probably we will not get a release date in the July 2024 newsletter, but rather in september with some anniversary event. As for when we are getting 3&4? Probably november or december. Gaster still has to contact us for this "Third connection"

[@ultranathan992]

I think we will get chapter 3 and 4 in 2024 or early 2025. But i also think that Chapter 5 will be the quickest chapter to come out of the rest. Since chapter 5 is somewhat being worked on already but i also believe it will still take over a year to make... Though with the team getting bigger and getting used to each other i think we will get Chapter 5 Before 2027

[@kylebooface6359]

I’m calling it Here and Now. They’re both releasing in September, just like chapter 2.

[@HarryButHarry]

Thinking about it, September *could* be possible. Generally, late Q3 or Q4 of the year seems the most likely for the release of Toby Fox's games. Chapter 1, 2, and Undertale all released in Q3 or Q4.

[@arjunbaweja7755]

I’m thinking more Christmas ish time imo

[@shadowspringtrap3122]

It's nearly September but nothing yet, I think October or November but who knows.

[@kylebooface6359]

@@shadowspringtrap3122 i’m still holding out hope

[@jma0645]

Chapter 3 and 4 will release in a bundle along side silk song

[@EarlyOnset]

"Like that's ever going to happen"

[@TRIPLEKIPPLE]

i see you

[@ivorywizard]

and gta 6

[@ThisIsAHandle-xz5yo]

And Minecraft 2

[@NotQuartz]

And chess 2

[@childeofepickness]

watching this video with an inverted filter on (drawing challenge) and every time toby pops on screen I’m like “omg evil toby fox”

[@Amber7H]

i honestly have no idea where the idea of chapter 4 not having a dark world came from, toby literally stated that chapter 4 will be "a more standard chapter"

[@shitpostmania6061]

"a standard chapter" cuz chapter 3, iirc, is focused on unique gameplay and new mechanics. So standard as ch2 type chapter? Also ch4 having no dark world is probably cuz of screenshots that were provided (they were from ch4)

[@Amber7H]

@@shitpostmania6061 i feel like the screenshots not showing the dark world is because toby wants it to be a surprise

[@Theking-vx6zp]

In the last newsletter toby literally says that he needs to improve the flow of the bosses. Pretty sure this means that chapter 4 is gonna have a dark world.

[@shitpostmania6061]

@@Amber7H yes hope so. I love the themes of dark world (Also i got ratio'd hard... For some reason)

[@2MeKids]

I heard there will be a July Deltarune Newsletter. Looking forward to that.

[@TheUndeniablyPowerfulH]

yehs

[@lybon6972]

toby clarified After the next gamemaker update which is also coming this month. I've tried to find info on that but I can't seem to find a tentative date, but it's still a 2 week maximum time. honestly my best case scenario and a wishful thought is that the gamemaker update will be the last piece of the puzzle. toby's been coy about release dates and only dropped information about chapter 2 like three days before its release, so i don't find it insane that he would try and manage our expectations and keep people from getting too hopeful in case something gets delayed. the gamemaker update in question is one that they've collaborated with toby's team on and developed a specific gamechange function for, which makes each chapter work as its own separate data file and whatnot. having the gamemaker update release as a necessary condition for news about a game which otherwise doesn't relate to a dev environment update makes me think they're more intertwined than the community generally believes

[@Drydoctor-qo5wt]

1:45 my American brain was like “14/02/24…? There’s not a 14th month! Oh.”

[@laceylopp7039]

Fourbember

[@JhonnyWaltz]

@@laceylopp7039Gunther Mire

[@JhonnyWaltz]

Why is americas like that, i know were cool and everything but why not just use the more better system… Oh never mind…

[@ivythay4259]

@@JhonnyWaltz it's written how it's spoken, not hierarchical

[@JhonnyWaltz]

@@ivythay4259 sickomode I just wanted to know

[@SharpPython]

the best possible time for it to be is christmas day. perfect game to buy and have a cozy christmas

[@Mysterious-Stranger]

Thank you for putting all the info together - from someone who hasn't had the time to follow as closely

[@thelightflare7960]

Ok but imagine this... Chapter 3 & 4 - October 31th 2024 Chapter 5 - DECEMBER 2025

[@gjk-arts5855]

ok but imagine this… Chapters 3 - 4, somewhere between oct-dec 2024 Chapter 5: UNDERTALES 10TH ANNIVERSARY SEPTEMBER 15TH 2025!!!!!!!!!!

[@lofaber5664]

31th Thirty oneth

[@bobbiejoringulet5040]

I feel like the earliest they can release is early to Mid fall

[@mikubrot]

something that's very unlikely but would also be pretty cool is chapter 5 releasing on Undertale's 10th anniversary next year (sept 15)

[@CoreyTVTheEpicDavid8]

Probably. Quite unlikely, but if ANYTHING comes out, there will be a demo for Ch.5

[@Jamielegge4221]

i cannot say how exited i am for the new chapters, ive been itching for new undertale/deltarune content for sooooo long

[@TheGlenn8]

I think we're definitely at the point where the fans are allowed to be frustrated with the slow progress. Honestly that point was a year ago. If it isn't releasing in this year I might actually go crazy.

[@NukaKawai]

uhh no, undertale took 7 years to make, every chapter so far has been longer than undertale, we are getting 2 chapters together so it will take twice as long to take.

[@RichConnerGMN]

​@@NukaKawaiundertale did NOT take 7 years what are you talking about

[@NukaKawai]

@@RichConnerGMN well if we remove the time it took him to think of everything its about 4 years, but still

[@MoistMarsupial]

I'm all for the "let him cook" mindset, but I don't know how long toby realistically expects people to be invested in this game. For comparison, the entire original star wars trilogy took place over the span of 6 years, which is where we're at now with Deltarune with only 2 chapters to show for it. That is a LONG ass time by the standards of any media.

[@lourdespachla6516]

conclusion: i guess i can safely tell you guys the probable progress of chapter 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 in a way, so here you go. chapter 3: 100% complete. chapter 4: 99% complete chapter 5: 10% or 25% depends if it is the knight's chapter cuz toby has the knight meeting concept sketched out. chapter 6: 0% or 1% same reason as ch. 5. chapter 7: 1% or 2% same reason as ch. 5, and also cuz deltarune's endiing comes from toby's fever dream, thus, he tecnically made it.

[@abiyujabbar4304]

If you mean by only programming progress then yes, all of this calculation might be correct. But you have to remember that all of the chapter storyboard and how it will affect the division of the jobs are probably already completed and set on stone. The way the storyboard that was made by Toby is that he probably made it from Chapter 7 up to Chapter 1 in the opposite way since Toby really emphasize Deltarune's Story with its ending. So, I would say that adding more 5-10% progress into all of the remaining chapter for full development progress including programming and storyboard progress are the way to go. There won't be any doubt for the development about what should have come next in the story since all of it already been done and the only thing they have to worry about is the programming.

[@TheGeladoo]

I don't think it's weird to think Chapter 5 may release standalone. The initial plan was to end the first paid release with Chapter 5, so there's clearly something in it that made Toby think it will be a good stopping point while we wait for the rest of the game to be completed. It might end on a really juicy cliffhanger, for example. So I definitely agree with you. On top of that, if C4 *is* feature complete and they're already moving the feature team to C5 in this month, I think late 2025/early 2026 is a good assumption of when we might be getting it (not that I'm getting my hopes up until we have full confirmation from Toby of course, this is just speculation).

[@Xhera]

As of recently Shaun Spalding has also joined the dev team! They helped out a bit with Chapter 2 and announced recently that they got hired full time to help with the game on their channel!

[@Sailorstrn]

starting highschool, and then graduating before chapter 3, and 4 is crazy

[@TheRealUltimare]

Yo does anyone think that we may get Chapters 3 & 4 on this year's Deltarune Anniversary? That's my prediction as that will be 4 months from when Toby said it was "quite far" in June, and at least for me, 4 months is "quite far." Edit: just finished watching the video and noticed that what I said was Harry's prediction. Well at least one person agrees with me lol Second Edit: Maybe if the chapters themselves don't come out on the anniversary, then the release dates for them will be shown on that day.

[@kovexplay]

This video reminded me that Toby changed his plans toward the release of the next few chapters. When I read his recent tweet I was like "Really cool that chapter 4 is technically playable all the way to the end but I don't really expect it to release this year, after all we don't know how much progress was made with chapter 5!" but now I think we might see the next 2 chapters relatively soon. Of course it's not concrete but we are seemingly getting closer than expected. Perhaps not necessarily this year (although the 4th quarter isn't too far fetched) but the beginning of 2025 is a pretty safe bet. So basically just like you speculated

[@bombardo6118]

"I think a larger development team is likely to mean a faster development cycle" very funny thing to say about someone who used to work on Homestuck

[@FlameIsExisting]

i'm gonna turn 30 before this game fully releases (I'm 19)

[@mikeyhamato2012]

Yo I am 20 and if I do not find love and marry by the time the entire game releases, I will actually lose my mind.

[@insertnamehere1398]

we live in a world where there is a real possibility that the producer is fucking masuhiro sakurai

[@Beowolf-jy5rc]

can i please have some context please.

[@christinacordova6271]

I’m predicting that chapter 3 and 4 will release this year or like near the end of the year. Orrr it will release next year. Like in April or may.

[@TruzzleBruh]

We’ll get chapters 3-4 in late October/early November, no console release until Christmas-ish, then chapter 5 coming out in q4 2025.

[@nermomi]

I like to imagine toby watching these videos like Miguel from Spider-Verse 2 wanting to say something but knowing he can't

[@FelisGalactus]

Friend Inside Me is a canon event

[@daniellejackson6543]

Considering how smoothly things are by the may newsletter we might be very close but we need this month's newsletter to confirm that.

[@pakuvang4775]

My guesses for the release dates are late 2024, and at the latest, early 2025. Whenever it is, I will no doubt be jumping around the house in excitement when it comes out- Take your time, Toby and devs!

[@artin6059]

didn't follow the news for the game for quite some time, thanks for updating me!

[@DragonTamer9001]

I’m so excited for Chapters 3 and 4. The entire world is gonna feel like it changed

[@marcustheBRAZILIAN]

10:16 uhh, actually it released in 2018

[@HarryButHarry]

crap, I must've been looking at the Nintendo Switch release date! I will add this as a correction in the pinned comment.

[@prepubertyvoice6792]

​@@HarryButHarryplus the bigger team, while ofc speeding it up, will prolly be more about making the game better rather than faster. I'm expecting June 2025 at the earliest lmaoooo

[@AbsolutelyAri1]

​@@prepubertyvoice6792I need to delude myself further

[@prepubertyvoice6792]

@@AbsolutelyAri1 lmaoooooo

[@Omarestois2cool]

Deltarune team making sure to take theyr time and drop the most perfect chapers ever (i love deltarune)

[@KyrieFortune]

Toby for the love of God, we're getting a full international release of Ace Attorney Investigations 2 before Chapter 3 & 4, we are fully into Gigapause mode. We're starving

[@johngamer3138]

Both ch1 and ch2 released around fall, so maybe ch3 + ch4 would release around fall this year or next year.

[@amogamogus117]

I'm losing my mind I'm losing my mind the wait is making me crazier than spamton please Mr. Fox I beg I need more deltarune copium

[@kingofflames738]

I honestly think this is for the better. I fear Chapter 4 could have been overshadowed by 3 and 5 if they all released together as the weird middle arc.

[@Jojoton56]

Friend inside me

[@RADZULAYXE]

hi jojoton56

[@hahahehe115]

Don’t break the three year cycle Toby!

[@justapersonontheinternet9069]

I have a feeling that we will know that Chapters 3&4 will release soon when Toby Fox’s twitter gets hacked / acts weird again lol (For those who don’t know what the heck im talking about toby fox posted weird tweets the same day chapter 2 was planned to be released. It has been theorized that whoever made the tweets is gaster due to the person who made the tweets writes in a similar fashion to how Entry 17 is written/spoken(?). This also happened back to 2018, when Chapter 1 of deltarune released.)

[@HarryButHarry]

I have a feeling that the newsletter that announces the release might get hacked by Gaster this time round, and Toby doesn't tease its release beforehand. Probably not this upcoming summer newsletter, but the next one. There is precedent for this, since Gaster has already sent us a valenties card in the Winter 2024 Newsletter.

[@LeoValdez1340]

I think it will be released between October 2024 and February 2025

[@alexolas1246]

this would in fact track with the pattern of Fox et al releasing a broader-UT/DR thing every 3 years

[@selena3467]

I mean I am very excited for Chapters 3 and 4 but once I finish them it's gonna be another 2 year wait for the next chapters. That's gonna be disappointing

[@Youpi-n1f]

Oh nice . Another prediction video that I'm going to re-watch when the chapter will be released. :D

[@P4BL0_C4L10]

I wonder if there are only 7 chapters, because in the game files there are up until 10 chapter intro animations, which could imply more than 10 chapters

[@GKMedoh]

Pretty sure they're placeholders but who knows?

[@wholekilogramofbutter480]

chapters 3 and 4 release february 1st, 2025 just trust me

[@Bits0910]

Well i'm happy that Toby and his team are "talking" with us and all, but im kinda sad cuz hes just saying "wait a little longer" for basically three years now. Afterall i understand that doing 3 chapters at once is not easy and stuff but like, couldnt he give us some debut expectation? Dont mind me im not hating or mad at all, im just anxious for this, and i know Toby is cooking

[@valhund2629]

I'm thinking October is a bit too soon. I think we will Definitely start getting marketing around that point, possibly even news that it's mostly ready, or even that its finished, but I think you're closer to the release date with December. however I also think there's a chance that might be copium talking and we aren't going to get both chapters until january at the earliest

[@random_losers93]

we’re all gonna die before deltarune is finished

[@PraeFectiom-y3x]

my theory is that it will release in september or october of this year (before 2023 my theory was this or last year) and my evidence is that every single tobyfox release date was 2-3 years apart and in september or october

[@gaming_bigfoot]

At this point I just wonder if I'll be around to see it completed

[@the_ceo_of_skull]

Havent watched all the way through the video, but i predict that the next chapters/the internal deadline mention in the newsletter will be September-October 2025 *_-the ceo of 💀_*

[@thiccpotato4021]

there is no way its that late with all the mentions of new team members

[@the_ceo_of_skull]

@@thiccpotato4021 idk bro. When the second chapter took 2 years to release, it stands to reason that two chapters would take twice as long. Also even if it gets finished sometime in early in 2025, toby might decide to release it around undertale's 10th anniversary. *_-the ceo of 💀_*

[@kingofdemons948]

@@the_ceo_of_skullchapter 2 took longer cuz of factors like Toby’s injury and Covid, plus he didn’t have as much resources as he does now. And he mentioned how now with the addition of a manager and new Members development has never been quicker, and it makes sense for chapter 5 to come out in 2025 to celebrate Undertale’s 10th anniversary

[@artyy3742]

@@the_ceo_of_skull why do you end all of your messages with the ceo of skull thats the cringest most unfunny fucking gimmick ive ever seen

[@skyeshades6250]

plus, chapter 3 is practically complete and chapter 4 is complete enough to be fully played through, there's no way that it'll take a whole year or more just to finish up chapter 4

[@zeo4481]

Sooner than we thought? It's been 3 years.. it'll be another more..

[@skojebus7874]

If we’re still going by an autumn release date for the chapters i’m thinking the chapters to be releasing like this: 3,4 2024 5 2025 UT 10YR Anniversary 6,7 (they could also be separated) 2027

[@sagacious03]

Interesting analysis video! Thanks for uploading!

[@Osmicombo]

random prediction, some deltarune chapter(s) will release in december at some point consider the importance of Dess.

[@sororoblitus]

for some reason i'm entirely convinced the chapters will release on december 25th

[@memiluccia]

For me the perfect release might be end of December 2024 or mid January 2025, all this in base of what tells the newsletter of Toby (I guess that we get for the end of the month at this point)

[@ahawdjkmwodjikma6543]

nah watch they're gonna clutch and release on my birthday next week!!!

[@lantcm613]

Considering all factors, I’m also guessing that Q4 2024 is a likely window, maybe Q1 2025 if things take a bit longer.

[@KingKieran28]

I originally thought it would come out in the summer holidays because that would be prime marketing time, but now we're here, i think haloween or christmas. Its probably a very toby thing to do to release it on christmas. It's a gift a lot of people have been waiting for

[@LadWithTheHat]

my prediction is that deltarune is entirely done but toby is doing a miniscule portion of tomfoolery

[@privateterry7975]

The more i near thr more excited i get for thr upcoming chapter's

[@HypeJoeplays49]

This is just really chapter 3 now and we can just wait for chapter 4 to come out

[@reddie1705]

as of late, my guess has been the release date of christmas this year or spring of next year. the christmas one has lore reasons, while the spring one is more based off the screenshots. We know Dess Holiday is becoming more important in the lore, and I think she's going to at least be involved in chapter 4 in some way, so why not release it on the December Holiday of Christmas? The spring one is, of course, based off all the flowers & rain we see in the newsletters and screenshots, alongside it being somewhat far yet it still being around the 3/4-year dev cycles.