What if Henry VIII had died jousting? A Tudor Succession Crisis...

Explore the intriguing "what-if" scenario of King Henry VIII's potential death after a jousting accident in 1536. Who would have inherited the English throne?
Join me as I delve into possible outcomes: Would young Elizabeth become queen with a regency council? Could Henry Fitzroy claim the crown, triggering a succession crisis a few months later? Might Mary assert her right as the legitimate heir? And what about Scotland's King James V eyeing England's crown? Dive into Tudor history and share your thoughts on these captivating scenarios! 🤔👑 #TudorHistory #WhatIf #SuccessionCrisis

[@cynthial.seagren560]

Another scenario is if Anne Boleyn had given birth to a healthy male heir, after Henry VIII’s death.

[@patriciapickett836]

Exactly, and that is the most interesting prospect. Personally, these speculative questions are getting VERY tiresome. I tune in to learn facts - and have enough trouble keeping those straight, LOL. Tudor spec should be the stuff of lively fictional novels.....

[@neilchisholm797]

Anne was pregnant at the time of the accident and the shock of it apparently brought on a miscarriage. She was carrying a male baby. At this time the relationship between A and H was strained, he was already wooing Jane Seymour due to Anne’s constant nagging and hysteria. Him dying in the accident would have been a terrible shock to Anne but recognising she was now in a very powerful position and with her family’s support (her father was an incredibly ambitious man) would have had the best physicians attend on Anne and that may well have prevented the miscarriage. Delivery of a healthy male baby and clear heir to the throne would have made the Boleyn family incredibly powerful and it would have been a similar situation to the Seymour’s acting as regents to Edward VI. The historical outcome of this scenario would have changed England and possibly Europe’s history profoundly. Certainly England would have been spared the tyrant King Henry became after being nearly fatally wounded. Elizabeth and Mary would have been married to royal European princes and the Tudor line could well have extended to the current day. It’s interesting to contemplate as to whether this would have been a good thing or a bad thing! One thing to consider is that England might have held lands in France for much longer, wonder how that might have affected the EU and even Brexit in modern times! 😀

[@peachygal4153]

@@neilchisholm797 Because of constant nagging and hysteria???? DUH that was BECAUSE he was wooing Jane Seymour, and before her there were others. He must have been pretty involved with Jane as he married Jane 4 months later. Ironic he had Anne put to death for the treason of adultery which was not true but yet he had several mistresses in their short marriage. BTW I would be hysterical I feared my husband would do with away with me for not giving birth to a son.

[@jeanetteking434]

@@patriciapickett836I find these what if segments to be a breath of fresh air and am enjoying them.

[@user-fq8rs7rz3i]

@@neilchisholm797”He was wooing Jane Seymour due to Anne’s nagging and hysteria”. Are you joking? What a daft thing to say! 🤣😂😅

[@MazMedazzaland]

I think Mary was the most likely person to take the throne, assuming Anne still had her miscarriage. Elizabeth was a child, and although Mary had been declared illegitimate a lot of people didn't agree with it. Fitzroy was definitely illegitimate and I do wonder if the nobility of the time would be very wary about making him king without anything other than his gender to recommend him - that could cause all sorts of issues down the line.

[@tarapeterson5899]

And, because they felt women’s minds weren’t suited to ruling, each nobleman might felt they had the best chance of being influential with Mary as Queen. Elizabeth would have had a council, but it goes without saying that anyone wanting to be important that way would be competing with the Boleyn and reform faction. Fitzroy was already married into the Norfolk family so immediately that’s a very powerful man to contend with. But Mary didn’t really have a proper support network around her so it may have been easier for noblemen to believe they could find a prominent place in her court with less trouble. The Catholics would have wanted her, the international pressure would have been for Mary, as well as all the enemies of Anne Boleyn and the Duke of Norfolk. She’s also the only candidate who could have married immediately, which might have made her an appealing prospect to those who hoped she might make an Englishman her King if they felt they or their sons had a chance of being chosen, and for those who wanted an international alliance her hand would have been a great bargaining tool. Given a lot of Mary’s public religious conflicts happened in her brother’s reign there’s even an argument to be made that the protestants wouldn’t have expected her to be so anti-reformation and felt they might be able to convert her or at least persuade her to be tolerant, since she was ‘only’ a young woman. I can see a lot of nobles supporting her claim, and of course she had a lot more popular support with the common people than Anne Boleyn or a bastard son.

[@angeliccow]

It’s less about legitimacy and more to do with malleability. I think the men in power would have ceased power through Elizabeth as they did through Edward in the real timeline. Mary was too old to have a regency counsel.

[@daniellemusella1594]

1} Anne Boleyn was an incredibly intelligent woman. If she thought Mary was likely to take the throne, I can picture her, leaving England in a panic with Elizabeth. The most likely place she would've gone would've been France, and several of her relatives would've probably gone with her. There was no way they'd risk, being caught up in the sweeping revenge Mary would've been sure to enact. She would've likely married Elizabeth into high French nobility, and how soon she returned home would've depended on whether or not she carried her son the full nine months. If not, then she and her daughter would've stayed in France, at least until Mary's eventual death. If the boy was full-term and healthy, she would definitely been tempted to ask King Francis to A] arrange a second marriage pact, and/or B] to fund an invasion fleet to put her son on the English throne. 2} Another question worth thinking about is what would've happened to Jane Seymour, without Henry? If they wanted to cling to any level of the power in the royal court, her family probably would've supported Mary's claim. (5/2/2023)

[@alancumming6407]

Really interesting comments, especially regarding the Seymours. I think you are correct, their immediate action would be to protect their powerbase.

[@samanthafordyce5795]

At 44 Henry was too old for jousting. He had no one but himself to blame for his succeeding health problems. As for Mary becoming queen, her grandmother, Isabella of Castile, was a queen in her own right and was apparently very effective at it. Although Isabella was married to Ferdinand of Aragon, in Castile he was consort, not regnant. So there was at least one example of an effective queen regnant to follow.

[@robbiemclaurin1852]

Reginald Pole was still alive and he had a strong Plagenent bloodline and was the archbishop of Canterbury,a possible contender for the crown...

[@MarilynRB]

Claire, it's always enjoyable to ponder the "what if" scenarios with you. I appreciate this insightful video; it always brings joy to my stressful work days seeing a notification of a new video from you. I want you to know your hard work doesn't go unappreciated. You bring a tremendous amount of joy to a complete strangers life. I suspect you create these videoa because you enjoy it, but I also hope it's comforting knowing how much others appreciate it. Thank you from the bottom of my ❤.

[@mickeykolody7773]

This is an interesting thought experiment. If Mary married into one of the ancient families, like the de la Pole family, she would have had a very strong claim to the throne. The Boleyns were so disliked at this point, many courtiers would (in my opinion) switch allegiance to Mary regardless of "legitimacy".

[@BlackCatMargie]

Oh, what a conundrum scenario! I think Elizabeth would have been proclaimed Queen, but I'm very doubtful about how long her queenship would have lasted. Infant rulers didn't tend to fare well. I think the most likely challenge would have come from Mary. She had a lot of backing, and while Philip of Spain was not available at this time, I'm sure a hasty but powerful marriage would have ensued, setting her up for a strong challenge. Another faction that might have raised its claim, might have been the Poles. Margaret Pole's claim would have had some backing, although I still think Mary would have prevailed. Mind boggles. 😊

[@EarlyMusicDiva]

James V of Scots was not yet married at the time of Henry's jousting accident. He could potentially have married Mary (with a dispensation of course, since they were first cousins, but such things weren't completely unheard of in royal families in those days), and they were only a few years apart in age and quite young enough to have had children together. A marriage between James and Mary, with their shared descent from Henry VII, could have united Scotland and England decades earlier than actually happened - in much the same way as the marriage of Mary's maternal grandparents, Isabel of Castile and Fernando of Aragon, had united Spain in the 15th century. And James probably wouldn't have died in 1542, since he wouldn't have been fighting against England. Anne and her supporters would probably have mounted a challenge on Elizabeth's behalf (though Anne's support might have already been rather weak by that point), and there's no telling how the Parliaments and the nobles of both countries would have felt about a union between James/Mary and Scotland/England, but it's an interesting thought...

[@emahabara1215]

That sounds really plausible to me, a history enthusiast with no actual credentials

[@julesblack134]

Thank you Claire 😊 Apart from the (always exciting) "what if", your video just made me think about Norfolk being father-in-law to Fitzroy and how this might give Norfolks "tut tut tut" ,and his entrire behaviour a few months later, a whole new dimension..

[@christyb2912]

But wasn't Anne pregnant at the time of the famous accident? if so, the parliament might have waited to see if she will give birth to a boy.

[@januarysson5633]

Yes but she miscarried four or five days later.

[@suellensheppard9734]

She lost her baby days after the accident

[@laurenhw1988]

Should Anne have carried her son to term would he have ousted whatever monarch had replaced him?

[@robinpinkham9398]

This is a great interesting " what if" video!!❤❤❤❤

[@trishayamada807]

As a horse person I’ve had a few bad falls and two I thought it was a miracle I survived and I wasn’t in armor or a giant king. Interesting to think about what would have happened….

[@ladyagnes9430]

It would have been wonderful if Henry died then and Mary had become Queen. She fought for her crown after her brother died and I think she would have fought for her crown then the difference would have been that she would have been young enough to maybe marry and have children and bring the church back to Rome. After all her mother sacrificed it would have been wonderful to see The Descendants of Catherine of Aragon go on to rule England for generations tocome.

[@TheKrazysexykool]

Britain would have a Catholic majority if Henry had died and Mary had ruled earlier than she did.

[@laurieduerr4757]

Very thought-provoking "what if" scenario! I agree with some of the other comments, that since Mary would likely have had support from Spain, and Elizabeth would have likely had support from France, that it could have certainly been a very contested battle for the throne!

[@januarysson5633]

Eleven less years of Henry VIII would have saved so much trouble for England but I think Mary would be able to win in a fight with the Boleyns and Anne would still have been beheaded…but with an axe rather than a sword. Elizabeth would have drifted into obscurity as an illegitimate child and been married to a minor nobleman who would never be able to muster the support she would need to win the throne. Mary would have had time to possibly bear an heir to carry on a Catholic succession.

[@idgriffin56]

I usually don’t enjoy “what if” scenarios. This is definitely an exception. My vote would be for Mary but that’s only based on her future actions and willingness to fight. Choosing Mary, of course, bears the question of what would have happened to Elizabeth? Surely her education, experiences, teachers and attendants would have been very different. What would this older Elizabeth be like? Thank you for such a thought provoking podcast. Ian

[@gerrimilner9448]

it occurred to me that things worked out the way they had to! although i really enjoy the what-ifs

[@mizfrenchtwist]

hello claire.........great share 😊😊😊😊. very interesting , thank you , for sharing🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰..............

[@Shane-Flanagan]

Very interesting question indeed with many possibilities as discussed 🤔 I imagine it would have been quite a chaotic time in England with different sides and factions scrambling and fighting for control especially with the fact that the King's death would've been so sudden and in such an unexpected manner. Not much time to think and prepare. Logically, you'd imagine that his only legitimate child and heir at the time, Elizabeth would automatically succeed her father with a ruling council. Although given how unpopular Anne and the Boleyns were, there would've been much heat and protest with them trying to seize power, people arguing as they had that Anne's marriage was never valid so Elizabeth couldn't be legitimate. A perilous time for the Boleyn family. Make or break for them. With Henry dying over 10 years before time, I see many Catholics breaking out and assuming things would go back to the old ways before Henry's fledgling reformation and of course there being great support for Mary becoming Queen, the daughter of the much loved Catherine of Aragon. The ambitious Norfolk and the Howards would've tried to cash in also with Fitzroy as their meal ticket no doubt. Mary Howard could've been a Queen Consort after all. The powerful and calculating Cromwell would've been one to watch. The theory mentioned here about Scotland and King James is an interesting and potential one. All round, it would've been a dangerous, uncertain and explosive time in Tudor England for sure 👑 💥 ⚔️ 🤯

[@user-kf6lu4dn2r]

I think we cannot entirely disregard Christina of Milan as a potential Monarch, she had more legitimate claim to the throne in her own right than Henry had.

[@wednesdayschild3627]

Most of Europe saw Elizabeth as illegitimate. It was either going to be Mary, or the Scots king.

[@VersieKilgannon]

That would have been a reversion back to the good time line in compensation for the loss of Prince Arthur. I absolutely hate Henry VIII. He deliberately messed things up

[@raumaanking]

Curious question do you think if Anne Boleyn and Catherine Howard were sent away and got there annulment and lived do you think they would have been mentioned in the Wyatts rebellion just like Elizabeth and Anne of cleves were mentioned

[@theresalaux5655]

I would really like to know more about Frances Brandon and what she looked like. Some things I have read say that she was mean and cold. Some say that she was heavy set. Thank you so much Claire.😊🎉❤

[@suebursztynski2530]

She was the mother of Lady Jane Grey, and yes, Jane was not happy with her family’s treatment of her.

[@anneboleynfiles]

Here you go - kzbin.info/www/bejne/l4HaamVqerKnbdU

[@marijeangalloway1560]

What if pregnant Anne had stayed pregnant and not miscarried? She could have successfully delivered her son that summer, right around the time of Henry Fitzroy's death---which may have seemed like some sort of sign. Would the nobles have waited for this child's birth, knowing the Queen was pregnant, before settling the succession, and formed some sort of interim government? Or would Mary have had enough support to get rid of Anne and deny her children the throne?😅

[@annalisette5897]

Thank you!

[@dianebronowiczegelhoff9622]

I could see a civil war between Anne (via Elizabeth) and the reformers vs. Mary and the Catholics. I know there was some thought at some point of marrying Fitz Roy to Mary. I think if he were unmarried, the factions would have tried getting him onside. Henry VII had a legitimate blood claim, though thin because of the Swineford descent, and won the throne by conquest. He stilled shored up his rule by marrying Elizabeth of York who had the stronger blood claim. Unlike the Swindford children, Fitz Roy was never legitimized, and I can't see him being accepted as King unless he married one of Henry VIII's daughters. Thus I think his influence would have been negligible.

[@richeymitchell9129]

A few people here have mentioned Anne Boleyn being pregnant at the time, and that she could've gone on to have a son. However, correct me if I'm wrong, but when she miscarried was it not at least partly blamed on stress, coming from Henry's accident? Surely that stress would've been even bigger had she lost her husband and then had to deal with their 2 year old daughter potentially becoming queen? I feel she may well have lost that son anyway unfortunately. For what it's worth I think Elizabeth would've been made queen but wouldn't be at all surprised if there was conflict, especially from Mary, and we can never be sure who would've come out on top (even with all the information we have, so much in battle/conflict can come down to good luck).

[@--enyo--]

Ooh, this is an interesting one.

[@ajaylet9563]

Number 3 seems to be the most reasonable in my eyes. These are very fun to think about.

[@MarkStorey-dc4tm]

If this led to a civil war which Mary won I think she'd definitely have spared Elizabeth. This could have led to interesting implications if Elizabeth was in line to succeed Mary. Even if Elizabeth had been raised a Catholic her parentage and the fact Protestants had fought for her, might have made some people anxious.

[@kazoolibra7322]

Seems like it would have been Elizabeth, as she was the only legitimate heir at the time and the Boleyns and Howard's would have been fighting for it. Their would have been a terrible battle over who would be protector,though. Lord Howard would have been formidable!

[@123canadagirl]

I think there’s the scenario where Henry Fitzroy doesn’t die I’m mean if we’re assuming what if then, I think we can assume of whatever if he becomes king and then doesn’t die. I think that’s an interesting scenario.

[@lynncarstens8316]

And since Anne was with child at the time, her male child had lived, he would have been crowned King

[@alancumming6407]

This was a great 'what if'. I think the danger to a peaceful transition was the fact the Wars of the Roses was still within recent memory. The smooth succession of Henry V111 may have been viewed as a welcome, but 'abnormal' event. In short, I think stability would deteriorate rapidly. A child cannot rule. I believe Mary (ever her Mother's daughter) would have made a claim. However, the support she found in East Anglia in 1553 was in an East Anglia that did not look to the Howard's for leadership. I believe she would have been supported by Exeter and the Poles. Also the uprising in the west and the simmering unrest in the north, might have proved advantageous towards stirring up territorial support for Mary. But speed would be necessary, therefore I think Norfolk would have seized his chance. His vast ducal territory was near at hand to London, also he had enough armed retainers to mobilize fast. However, I'm not sure what candidate he would support. He could go for Fitzroy - and be Father-in -law to a King - or he could support Elizabeth (preferring Howard blood to Tudor blood). If the later, much would depend on his relationship with Thomas and George Boleyn. Of course, at the centre of everything was Anne - she had been crowned Queen Regnant. I believe she would have immediately declared Elizabeth Queen (as per the legitimate succession ) and appointed both herself and George as Protectors. How all this would play out once the international situation is taken into account really makes the head spin - but my goodness, it certainly would have been interesting. Many thanks Claire - this was a really enjoyable vlog.

[@samanthafordyce5795]

Anne had been crowned, but it was as queen consort, not queen regnant. Henry was the sovereign, Anne was just the sovereign's wife.

[@alancumming6407]

@@samanthafordyce5795 It was a stupid mistake, many thanks for pointing it out.

[@eveywrens]

Claire, you've covered the most likely scenarios. No matter what, I believe there would have been a lot of jockeying for position and backstairs politics. In addition to the Scotland, would there have been any other rulers (Charles V?) with their eye on England. Would the Pope have become involved to restore England back to the Catholic fold?

[@carolynnr.6409]

Mary Tutor may have had help from Spain and the English people who favored her mother who was still alive but only had 2 weeks left. At least she would have been able to attend her funeral.

[@autumnmoonfire3944]

The other possibility is Norfolk supporting Elizabeth’s claim and supporting Anne’s regency until he could push Anne out of his way, either while she was miscarrying or while she was in childbed. As strong as Anne was, Norfolk was (as a man) better positioned and Anne’s popularity would still have been shaky. Norfolk could have overcome her with fair words and pretending to support her policy. I think if she was going to miscarry that pregnancy it would have happened regardless of Henry’s health. (I’m working on the other theory, that there was a Kells protein or Rh incompatibility in play)

[@lynnedelacy2841]

I think Anne had a lot of enemies so her being regent would probably have been challenged Fitzroy would have been an interesting choice

[@DipityS]

I think Mary. Imagine no Church of England and how many changes that would have occasioned!

[@EllieDaisy]

It’s actually such a shame he didn’t die 😂 Would have had Elizabeth for even longer, Anne would have been an incredible mother of the queen and so many less people would have died!! Katherine H, Anne, all those killed under Mary 1!

[@mandygray764]

Interesting....I think maybe it would have gone to Mary

[@apriljones2950]

I think Mary would have prevailed, with Elizabeth being runner up. My personal pick and favorite would be Elizabeth.

[@leticiagarcia9025]

Mary would make a power play for the throne. If Anne would find herself with less support then she and her daughter would leave England. Anne would bid for time until Elizabeth is old enough to take her rightful place. Anne Boleyn and Catherine Howard’ lives would’ve been spared. Many people lives would’ve been sparred. Catherine Parr wouldn’t have to wait to marry Thomas Seymour. Thanks Claire.

[@mimisor66]

Even if Fitzroy got the throne, both Mary and Elizabeth could have married and produced male heirs to claim the throne. If Mary could have married young and have a son, her claim would have been very strong, to compete against her half brother.

[@suzannejones5992]

Who's to say henry Fitzroy would have died. He would have moved and maybe not have become sick. Or poisoned. Mary imo was the most likely to have taken the crown and she may have had children too. It's mind boggling to think about all the scenarios and their consequences. It certainly was a pivotal time in the history of Britain and Maybe even the world.

[@SlightlySusan]

I just looked up what Henry FitzRoy died of. The answer was tuberculosis. I do not know whether this was attested to. Based on how Mary handled her coming to the throne, I think had young Henry were allowed to reign, Mary would have laid siege to him and his advisors. I would have liked Henry FitzRoy becoming king.

[@autumnmoonfire3944]

Was Henry Fitzroy already showing signs of TB that January? If he was already ill that might have changed the calculus,

[@RiseeRee]

I think that much like in her adulthood, the biggest trump card would be Elizabeth’s hand in marriage. The Boleyn party could make a strong match for her in Europe to defend against the Hapsburgs and Princess Mary. I don’t think they’d have the luxury of playing around with that for very long as Elizabeth did though 😅

[@cal4895]

What if Catherine of Aragon had died along with Arthur in 1502?

[@TheKrazysexykool]

It would be interesting to know who Prince Henry would have married if Catherine of Aragon had died with her husband. Also since Arthur was married to Catherine to form an alliance with Spain to strengthen Henry Tudor's claim on the throne, would Henry have remained King ? There were dead York princes crawling out of the wood work and Henry's own court was betraying him

[@oldnan6137]

Wasn’t Anne pregnant at the time of the joust? If so would a son supplant Elizabeth? Would they wait for the birth of this child before a coronation for Elizabeth?

[@lauramason5667]

Mary seems like she could’ve been more powerful because of her maturity and age. But at this point wasn’t she illegitimate? After all he was married and at this time. I think that the Crown probably would’ve gone to Henry Fitzroy because he was a boy. A young man I mean.it’s hard to say. I agree that Anne would not have been a regent queen for her daughter Elizabeth.

[@eleanorbarrie3527]

James V was King of SCOTS, not 'King of Scotland'. All Scottish monarchs were monarchs of Scots, not of Scotland.

[@carlv1379]

I have a "What if...". How many Tudor monarchs would have imprisoned or executed someone who had done less than what MeAgain Markle has done?

[@randyherbrechtsmeier9769]

Beautiful Blouse Young Lady. Very Good Video. Could have Made Civil War. Problem is the Country was Sick of War!!! Hard to Say what would of Happened. It Probably Not Good!!!

[@robertthomson1587]

Mary takes the throne, and after gaining the necessary dispensation from Rome, marries her half-brother Fitzroy. It ticks a number of boxes: Henry's eldest - and, in reality, only legitimate child - is on the throne, with a Tudor male husband to offset the "women are not competent to reign" motif.

[@beth7935]

I'm almost certain that'd never happen. Even the Habsburgs didn't take it that far; they "only" did uncle-niece & double-cousin marriages. In England, people were so horrified by the rumours that Richard III was planning to marry his niece that he had to publicly announce he wasn't, & I seriously doubt he even considered it. I can't see Mary agreeing to marry him either- her bastard half-brother, born when her father cheated on her beloved mother?!

[@SyIe12]

👍⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

[@kartos.]

Fitzroy probably could possibly have not died as he would have been in another location, and if his condition was less long term, might not have caught it.

[@gogreen7794]

Chances are, given the fate of other Tudor males in their teens, Henry Fitzroy would have died. Arthur Tudor, Edward VI, and the sons of Mary Tudor Brandon all died young.

[@carolynsaffoe8718]

My money would be on Mary.

[@MiiFone1]

You all have an interesting insight. I agreed with what many of you who stated that the Boleyn faction being quite fragile especially without the support of the king and came up at this further conclusion. This premise being the case I think any move to power such as a Regent or Protector-ship by the Boleyn's would have ultimately found limited support and instead face widespread opposition and distrust by most the population and nobility. Add to that at this time the entire Catholic axis including Spain would have supported Mary's claim and with force. Remember this before the beginning of the protestant supremacy at the time of the Kings death in 1547. Especially considering since in E VI's reign were Mary actually did succeed in a fight for the throne by assembling a army and she triumphed at a time when the protestant faction was at its strongest and controlled the privy council, the tower and all the other organs of goverment. And 1536 was way before the pilgrimage of Grace and the total completion of dissolution of the monasteries. So the Catholic faction was still to strong at this exact point and this being the case Mary would most likely prevail. I think the Boleyn's would have defiantly made a move and fought for power and for Elizabeth's installment. But IMHO her being an infant under a Boleyn Regency would have been fare worse for the English to stomach than the idea of a female monarch and one as popular and accepted by the majority as the actual true heir even in spite of parliaments recent act. And add to that many people at this time were questioning Anne's marriage and it's validity. Remember this is the time period the Kings marriage really started to break down and HVIII was tiring of Anne and himself stating misgivings. So I feel that the exact time period we are discussing is crucial because the Boleyn's were at their weakest and this occurred just before their complete fall and utter destruction. I do not think the Boleyn faction would ever have had a definitive shot for success since they were too unpopular, but out of the entire 3 years of their marriage I think the Boleyn's chances of success were weakest from this point on. Now where parliament would have went without the king there thats a huge what if for me. IMHO of all the scenarios I feel Mary's chances are the strongest and is the "most" likely scenario. Would like to hear further ideas and perhaps things I missed that would sway the needle.