What will Russia gain or lose if Belarus joins its war?

[@Binkov]

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[@proudrepublicanstan2958]

🅉🇷🇺!

[@prezmrmthegreatiinnovative3235]

id like too see Modern OPERATION BARBAROSSA with modern present day germany and axis vs russia

[@andrewstewart9263]

@@prezmrmthegreatiinnovative3235 - Right, then watch a modern Russian tactical nuke stop the modern operation Barbarossa in its tracks. Lol.

[@maximiliankeller4826]

This sponsoring is an unfortunate end to my subscription. I'm truly sorry to see that happen.

[@thomaslunde5014]

@@proudrepublicanstan2958 Can you share your experience with us on how it's like being a joke?

[@Ironpancakemoose]

Lukashenko needs his army to keep him in power, if that gets obliterated in Ukraine, he will be deposed.

[@cekol2285]

Yes he will by Russians.

[@Hillbilly001]

Ya think?

[@Ammotive28]

No he wouldn’t, putin would fix it for him, it would be part of the deal.

[@Jack_Redview]

@@Ammotive28 with the imaginary Russian reserves , you’re right 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@billyflores1448]

So Belarus wants to join Russia oh wait cause they lost before to Ukraine he helping Russia cause he knows Russia can take over his country way faster then trying to take over Ukraine his country a poor and a loser country even America would had taken over Ukraine quickly then a woodpecker peckering a tree it's a smaller country to so that's why he joining Russia and that's his daddy Putin and Belarus is a puppet he would make him take the fall then Putin taking the fall

[@titob.yotokojr.9337]

If Belarus did not join the war in February at a time when the reputation of Russia was still intact, why would Belarus join the war now when they see Russia floundering in the battlefield and its reputation in tatters. It would be suicide for Belarus to join now.

[@lihkan]

Because Lukashenko´s regime is critically dependent on Russia. In Februry, Russians were not so hell-bent into pushing Belarus into war, because they believed they can easily win even without them, now they are desperate. But Belarus so far seems to be resisting the pressure.

[@armija]

@@lihkan this...

[@Dogboon-]

The short answer is: no sense. But then again it made no sense for Russia to invade Ukraine. So having no sense will not stop the buttheads from doing it.

[@JGuess418]

Well I think the reason is because Ukrainian regime has been shelling Donbas regions (Russian speaking population). They killed over 14k civilians since 2014. Minsk agreement didn’t work so Russia had to step in.

[@Dogboon-]

@@JGuess418 whether or not Ukraine was in fact shelling the separatists or not doesn't matter. Since it was only ever used as an excuse by Russia to invade the entire country. If Russia only focused on the two separatist regions from the very start it may be over by now.

[@florianchabaud8548]

I think I know the real reason why Putin invaded, please let me know your thoughts on this : Russia's economy depends on the selling of oil, it makes 60% of its revenue. In 2010 a crap load of oil was discovered in Crimea and Donbas (it was the second biggest oil deposit in Europe, first one being in Norway). Russia doesn't want competition on oil, so a foir years later when Ukraine tries to develop its own oil industry in the two regions, Russia invades because it sees Ukraine as an economic threat. The other main reason I see is that most Russian ports are frozen for the most part of the year. That's not the case in the Black Sea, that's why Russia wants Odessa and Marioupol. Sorry for the long text, have a nice day

[@looinrims]

You wouldn’t say that if Ukraine floundered like in 2014

[@looinrims]

@@JGuess418 Ha! No

[@A_Bunch_of_Savages]

The Russians launched a surprise attack. Except the only ones they surprised were their logistics support. 😂

[@user_____M]

Name checks out.

[@WinterXR7]

Its been building for 8 years and Ukraine wasnt being very cooperative and they kept building up their military so it was expected the only suprise is that it took so long.

[@missk1697]

You can't really launch a surprise attack anymore, satellites will detect any military buildup nowadays.

[@advisorynotice]

@@WinterXR7 Russians when people want to defend themselves.

[@WinterXR7]

@@advisorynotice Nah Russia wanted to defend Dontesk and Luhansk peoples republic as fake as they may seem to you and Ukraine kept launching more attacks.

[@rikulappi9664]

(A Finnish reserve officer here) Your analysis rings true! The Belarusian military seems to be a DEFENCE force above all.

[@dexlab7539]

Actually, it keeps Ukraine troops stuck in Kiev. Exactly as the Russians want

[@andrewkachan4209]

Конечно, у нас оборонительная военная доктрина, это не секрет. Более того до недавнего времени у нас в конституции был закреплен нейтральный статус, но это уже не актуально:)

[@plrc4593]

Greetings from Poland. I hope I'll see Finland and Sweden in NATO soon. Our 3 countries are natural allies againt Russia. BTW: I've got a video on my youtube channel that may make you interested. It's an interview with Belarusian oppositionist Zianon Pazniak. In the video he talks also about Finland.

[@andrewkachan4209]

@@plrc4593 и где он сейчас?

[@plrc4593]

@@andrewkachan4209 Who? Pazniak? I'm not sure. Pazniak is surprisingly unknown outside Belarus. I'm trying to popularize him, because he's a genius.

[@classicforreal]

I'm calling it right now: Masterworks will be 2023 Established Titles Binkov mentioned in Scott Shafer's next video when?

[@classicforreal]

OH SHIT SON IT’S ALREADY HAPPENING m.kzbin.info/www/bejne/pXPOi4Z6bqiBmdE

[@edc1569]

Of course it will be, it’s so dodgy.

[@ryman8989]

Lukashenko barely has the number of loyal troops needed to protect his capital buildings. He won't risk losing them thus leaving him vulnerable to being taken out by his own ppl.

[@pixelwortel9578]

He doesn't need to invade. Just Ukraine having to strech around the whole Belarussian border will end their numerical superiority against the Russians on the east and south.

[@高若嵩-t6r]

@@pixelwortel9578 You think the Ukrainians don't station troops around that border already?

[@pixelwortel9578]

@@高若嵩-t6r not as many mr Kraken pro

[@MarshallTheArtist]

@@pixelwortel9578 Plenty of Ukrainian civilians with guns are living near the Belorussian border. Remember how farmers were hauling enemy tanks with their tractors?

[@eeeertoo2597]

@@pixelwortel9578 The Ukrainians already have troops stationed on the Belarusian border, clearly it has not affected the war much, so other than a full in invasion there is not much else Belarus can do.

[@rogersmith7396]

Maybe Putin could achieve his desired trifecta of getting Belarus to join Ukraine, strengthening NATO, and showing the world how weak and incompetent the Russian military is all the while torpedoing the Russian economy. Strategic thinking at its best. That KGB training always shines through.

[@stephanledford9792]

My understanding is that the reason that the Belarus military is not already involved is because the military leaders didn't want to get involved when the war started. Pushing the military into a war they don't want to be part of is not a good idea for Russia, because if Belarus revolted and turned on the Russians, it would be difficult for Russia to put down the revolt because they are tied down in Ukraine. It would be ironic if Putin turned Belarus against Russia and potentially eventually added two more NATO members in Belarus and Ukraine.

[@mreevee7785]

No one likes expanding nato more than putin tbh

[@lightbox617]

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[@Only.D.G.]

Belarus would be like Italy in the World Wars

[@PhuckYT12]

Prob more like Romania when Hitler used their troops in his invasion of the USSR. Some poorly trained, poorly equipped men with shit morale potentially sent into the meat grinder as cannon fodder and a distraction.

[@SCH292]

Lol. Belarus is trying to be like the WEST. West support Ukraine with aid and weapons. Belarus can't financial support Russia but its doing its best with...thoughts, prayers, hope and smack talking 24/7.

[@高若嵩-t6r]

Italy? Nah... It'll be like Hungary. Russia is like Italy rn.

[@SCH292]

@@高若嵩-t6r Lol. Hungry. Hungry is that one guy who undermines you and object you every time. He seems to love Russia more than you and your buddies but he doesn't want to leave you guys to join Russia either because he knows that Russia ain't got shit.

[@revolverDOOMGUY]

If China is Germany then Russia is lim Italy and Belarus is like Romania or Hungary.

[@Kokozaftran]

Luka joins, Belarus falls. The potato knows this. He's feigning stupidity but is actually crafty. He's trying to stall as much as possible.

[@rogersmith7396]

Hes under consideration for the Nobel Prize in evil moustaches.

[@De_Nome]

Everyone is talking about Kyiv being in range of Belarus while forgetting the fact that Minsk is also in range of Ukraine. They cannot just join the war and expect to have no losses. Then again. It is completely possible that Putin might not even care about the entirety of Belarus when being used as a cannon fodder. This is simply astounding.

[@MarylandMarshmallow]

If Ukraine attacks Russian cities. I have a strong feeling the outcome will cause the great warmth to occur sooner rather than later.

[@gintasindreika933]

Belarus is already in debt to Russia for construction of the Ostrovets nuclear power plant.

[@WinterXR7]

Minsk is further away from the Border than Kyiv which is almost in Artillery range.

[@eeeertoo2597]

They also forget that Kyiv is already in range of Russian missiles

[@raner2367]

Cause if they rocket Minsk they will get double portion next day. If there is someone to even man those super weapons Patriot that Yemen old missles gone trough. You need at least 90 men to man a Patriot.

[@alarsonious2071]

I love your content. But has Masterworks been vetted as a advertiser? Anyone promising a higher then average return in investment should be fully vetted.

[@aurathedraak7909]

If I was Belarus, I would stay out. I bet a lot of defects will happen and at home people wouldn't stand for it.

[@ClannerJake]

it is, indeed, one sure fire way to get annexed by ruskia; cause they will get folded like lawn chairs.

[@rogersmith7396]

Maybe the Ruskis will clip Adolph Stalin and take over. Pretty much a Ruski plan no?

[@WarriorPoet01]

NATO countries adjacent to Belarus should openly move divisions to the border of Belarus. This would serve as an…..”incentive” for Belarus to remain as neutral as possible.

[@Strato13]

Maybe.. But it can also escalate things too.

[@KaiserS0ZE]

@@Strato13 Stationing troops at your own border is escalation? how? I see it more like a warning to NOT escalate, by Belarus attacking Kyiv and getting involved. A declaration of war by Belarus would be the escalation.

[@WarriorPoet01]

@@Strato13 Belarus invading Ukraine would also be an escalation, and a hot one at that. Placing chess pieces at the Belorussian border would merely be a “check” in this bloody game.

[@jomilla]

I don’t think it would be hot at all. The only reason we’re not giving Ukraine the big guns is because we’re flying the banner of helping Ukraine defend without giving them the clear capabilities to attack into real Russia. Belarus, would make no impact other than what they have already allowed, but get no hands off agreement. So the aid they would get into striking Belarus would be brutal for Belarus. I think would be effectively a non factor. Other than Belarus getting hit hard and then Russian would ‘Annex’ them immediately. They are just waiting for Lukashenko to piss people off to step in already.

[@toto-yf8tc]

And risk a nuclear war. I think you should enlist.

[@RandomGuy9]

Belarus isn't a big military power. It is a police state.

[@irongeneral7861]

At least Belarus does something well and for some reasons known to, though not quite fully understood, by us.

[@georgemcaulay6009]

Belarus special forces are the ones that can tie their shoelaces

[@geshabuL_]

Hahaha, good one

[@NapoleonBonaparte96]

🤣good reference! I could not believe it when I saw that guy did not know how to tie his shoes. Craaazy world the Russian world.

[@РемиБоняшки]

Ahhh the American president shakes hand with the thin air. So what. You still love him. 😂😂😂

[@saul_goodman6246]

@@РемиБоняшки and the powerful russian president trips down a stair and shit himself 😏

[@everTriumph]

As Lukashenko does not have the 'do not touch' status of Putin and the Moscow elite, an active aggression by Belarus may legitimately provoke a response that would decapitate or de-stabilise the Belarusian Government. This may actually lead to the Belarusian joining the fight on Ukraine's side. That sort of thing happens in dictatorships.

[@andmos1001]

Belarusians are actually joining in with the Ukrainians voluntary, seeing that this war will have a massive impact for their own country politic

[@WinterXR7]

When Iraq invaded Kuwait their dictatorship did not immediately fall apart and explode. Sadly that isn't how life works and you overestimate the will of the civilians who know that they will be stomped out and "dissapear" if they do anything how do you think North Korea exists and other nations. Although I will not say your assumption is completely wrong in 2014 Ukraine capital rioters forced the Ukrainian president at the time to leave but in fairness he was in no way a dictator and was legally voted in suprisingly those rioters have caused the lives of Thousands and multiple Ukrainian territories because something known as a Russia existed.

[@advisorynotice]

@@WinterXR7 it depends if Lukashenko will cooperate or not.

[@gushingranny475]

@@WinterXR7Belarus is different from Iraq. I agree an invasion in itself wouldn’t cause the regime to collapse. If the war drags on and Belarus takes many casualties, it’s more likely that their army will do nothing to stop Ukrainian advances on Minsk

[@WinterXR7]

@@gushingranny475 Then Again would Ukraine even have the resources for such a attack. They are already struggling again Russia specifically in the Armored vehicle section where Belarus is obviously not lacking. And anti tank systems like Javelins are only good when defending and when going on the offensive you will find out they slow you down a ton and make it easier for tanks to get rid of you once one of their drones spot your location and gives them a heads up and Belarus is not lacking in Tanks currently. While Ukraine can easily call up more soldiers than Belarus entire Armed Forces and Reserve without the Armor they are gonna find themselves moving very slow and taking some casualties.

[@MassiveCarbonFootprint]

Terrific video. Could your next one be about what's happening in Moldova?

[@MOCentrists]

It is well documented on social media, from the Russian conscripts themselves, that they are being used in Ukraine. Many were called up, sent to die on the frontline with 0 training after only a week. This is especially true near Svatove and Bakhmut.

[@JohnDoe-wv7ep]

Source? Also social media isn’t a source.

[@123456qwful]

The same is said from the Ukrainian side as only a handful of the full Ukrainian fighting force are properly trained, and even said train was more for counter terrorism or semi urban warfare

[@juliodyarzagaray]

@@JohnDoe-wv7ep Social media posts by Russian conscripts themselves, assuming they exist, would be one of the best possible sources.

[@MN-pf2kv]

@@juliodyarzagaray impossible to fake this, true!!!

[@esra_erimez]

So, given the astoundingly stupid Russian strategies so far, you're saying Russia might try this.

[@nyana6641]

😂😂good point

[@keep22]

One of our greatest philosopher once said... um... oh yeah, "Stupid is as stupid does." 🤔

[@migangelmart]

You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind shines.

[@himlingpatrice]

IMHO, Lukashenko is acting with Putin exactly like Franco did with Hitler. "I would be happy to help you, but unfortunatly, I can't, I need help, I need money... please"

[@MA_KA_PA_TIE]

Which is why Franco lasted for decades after Hitler was out of power.

[@eugeniujosanu279]

Lots of Belarus ppl already fighting for UA .. plus Lukashenko almost lost the chair if it wasn t for putin s suport to handle the protest ..only old grendmas will fight for lukashenko .

[@deputykirsanov7314]

Очень ценное мнение для адептов секты повешенного поляка, но не здесь. В селфи банде Калиновского максимум 2 тысячи человек, и все они окопались где то в Вильнюсе. На фронте их вже нэма. Так что, иди туалеты мой и мечтай дальше, «невероятный»

[@thestifmyster1]

The fact that Russia needs help from Belarus is a joke by itself.

[@rohitkothari3890]

Belarus can get its mighty navy involved. They can supply row boats and log barges so finally Russians can cross the Dniper river.

[@BFB_tg]

Ah glorious Belarus Sea fleet, what a powerhouse!

[@zooman_AFL8984]

Very interesting Binkov! Thank you for this wonderful video and teaching what could happen! ❤

[@Synthetic-Rabbit]

"Equipped, trained, and sent to the front line" should just be "Sent to the front lines".

[@based-24]

Fun facts: Back then Lukashenko said, there is no C. Just drink a cup of vodka and go to the sauna. He also declared that there is no 10% inflation in the country.

[@shaunholt]

Russia: NATO is planning to invade. Also Russia: Let's pull forces away from Kaliningrad and Belarus, greatly softening our border with NATO, and risk plunging our ally (Belarus) into civil war.

[@penitent2401]

Belarus military is to Ukraine as Ukraine compared to what Russian forces was thought to be before the war. But now Ukraine is battle proven and battle hardened and Ukraine is not going to be restraining themselves to only fight up to the border like they do with Russia.

[@abjectt5440]

My thoughts exactly. No long supply lines and a civilian population I would wager wants nothing to do with war after seeing how Russian troops have faired.

[@edwardvalivonis23]

Ukraine always was strong

[@DiverseLA]

My guess is Belarus won't join the war, but they're doing a "feint" to the north so Ukraine will keep some forces in the north and divert them from Russian forces in the south.

[@Jordan-Ramses]

It would probably help Ukraine. It would make other nations help Ukraine more and possibly join the war. And I don't think Belarus would be much help to Russia.

[@scipioafricanus2212]

@@Jordan-Ramses correct. The best Belarus could do at this point is provide Russia with the land to open a new front assuming they bring in more standing personal although that involves leaving their borders insecure. Time is on Ukraine's side at this point and Russia is just looking for any big piece of leverage to bring to the peace negotiations.

[@asdfzzz]

It's not a believable feint in the first place though, because Ukraine knows as well as we do that Belarus is in no position to attack them. Also Ukraine can hold a Belarusian advance just using the regular TDF that have to be there anyways for general security purposes, so it doesn't meaningfully divert Ukrainian troops.

[@irongeneral7861]

A local in Minsk told me it's only a matter of time, sadly. A few months at most, according to him. My uncle in in the border guards so I hope he isn't mobilized.

[@Jordan-Ramses]

@@irongeneral7861 it's sad that people have to die for the vanity and ambitions of their leaders. I do feel bad for ordinary Russians who oppose the war. As an American I also often disagree with the actions of the government but what can I do? I am only one person and nobody listens to me. They tell me that I can vote. When was the last time an election was decided by one vote? Never. It's a joke. The propaganda goes out to millions of people who can't think for themselves.

[@venox3811]

Belarusian troops entering the war would probably get wrecked by Nato

[@obelic71]

Lukashenko doesn't give a damn and uses his people as pure canonfodder. He learned that from Putin who also sees his people as pure canonfodder.

[@alexcrawford6162]

The destruction of the Belarusian army in Ukraine would destabilise Lukashenko to the point of him falling. Either Putin won’t ask him to openly send troops, doesn’t care about the consequences, or, most worryingly, wants Lukashenko to all but fall so Russia can sweep in and extend full control over the country.

[@Davitofrito]

They are technically part of Russia under union treaty, it just hasn't moved toward the final steps of integration yet.

[@graemesydney38]

Its a bluff for The West and reassurance/posturing for Russians. Froth and bubble disinformation, nothing more.

[@Tonyw55]

What is Russia going to fight with we all know that Russia is running low on weapons and that is a fact, Putin has failed and Russia will collapse.

[@jdam6017]

Just a thought - Belarusian annual defense spending is equivalent to about 6 hours of US budget. They are spending barely more than Luxembourg on their military.

[@omarionbayley9721]

😂😂😂😂😂

[@rogerbrownreacts8528]

Belarus loses as Putin takes it as a free consolation prize.

[@MrKockabilly]

When it is the master himself (Putin) who suddenly travelled all the way to personally talk to his puppet (Lukashenko) to beg for direct support, you know the master is in real panic mode.

[@moonfly1]

Russia isnt begging Belerus for support, its telling them to return all the assets they put in Belerus.

[@TheMrbouyou]

Imagine Belarus suddenly asking to join NATO to avoid getting dragged in this lost war and getting protection from Moscow, that'd be great.

[@moonfly1]

@@TheMrbouyou Belerus don't meet the criteria for joining NATO

[@blafonovision4342]

I wonder if Poland would counter by massing forces at the Belarusian border? This would make it impossible for Belarus to invade Ukraine.

[@wanderingaceminecraftandmo8034]

Basically a "Try me. I dare you," type of deal. Belarus invades, Poland intervenes

[@keeperofthefate]

Mass what? All post-soviet polish tanks are either shipped or prepped to be shipped to Ukraine. Current gov with great hardship was able to add one additional division to existing three, during 8 years in power. They've done that by draining ranks and officers from former three, which in turn created chaos and damaged cadres of land forces in the long run. This year it was even reported that army shrunk by few hundred souls (first time during this gov). Even boosted by territorial defense and allies, Poland have not enough troops to even think about gambling at the borders. We need at least 4-6 years to be preped and ready. That's why it is so essential for us that ukrainian fight the war. Not even win. Just fight and tie up ruskie, preventing them from building up their forces. It would've been a nightmare scenario for us, if prorussian elements succeded with their coup in febuary and took Kyiv. We wuold still had our tanks, but grand Russia using resources and populations of Ukraine and Belarus ato our doorstep. Balts would be fooked. We and Romanians would've been forced to "talk" with Russia. Not a good story. EDIT (for all these comments below): Yes, I know, Poland buys all "them" tanks and stuff from Korea and US. That's why, I say, we need 5-6 years. Yes I know, that we started to spend a lot this year, but current gov is about to be voted out of office in few months, so they literally set budget a flame and don't care, as it will be their successors to clean up fiscal mess (they've done literally the same thing back in 2007). And yes, I know that NATO exists. Poland was in few alliances during our long milenium long history. Not every alliance worked out for us. Like one in 1939. When shit hit the fan, Hitler and Stalin divided Poland, while french and brits looked, said "okay" and pretended for half of year that nothing really happened. Also try too look at polish demographics. Two new divisions for land forces will not happen (one new will be max effort and flawless planing - there are no competent people in polish gov). We barely build territorial defence, which is out of schedule (there should've been 50k territorials by 2018, there is 35k). It's hard to build professional army and our conscription is practically dead since 2009 (by popular vote; people actually don't want conscription in Poland; polls are overwhelming; they want reservists to be called to practices, but they don't want to be conscripted - paradox, 'aint it?).

[@doger6531]

@@keeperofthefateOh ho ho you did not hear about the South Korean arms that are coming to Poland or the ones that already came

[@rayzerot]

@@keeperofthefate Poland beefed up its military budget drastically and is basically on a spending spree as far as new vehicles, weapons, and equipment. I'm sure new troops won't be far behind.

[@rogersmith7396]

@@doger6531 The fleet of Kias alone would make anyone nervous.

[@doomedwit1010]

It would make more sense for Belarus to give all its hardware to Russia than join the war. If NATO actually attacked, the Belarus army is meaningless. If NATO does not attack, Belarus only needs the army to protect itself from its own people, and Russia. But it's already a Russian province, whether or not they admit it.

[@brittislove]

you make an excellent point. Belarus, like Poland, is a great buffer state. It is an independent nation under the protection of Russia, so NATO cannot advance through there without directly declaring war, and if NATO troops move into Ukraine which is an active war zone, then NATO would certainly be joining the war. However, we must remember the villains we are dealing with. I don't expect these people to make sense anymore.

[@gregft1979]

@@brittislove NATO does not want to advance anywhere. It is defensive in nature. Exactly what it's doing helping Ukraine defend itself. I hear lots of Russian dudes on other channels saying NATO wants to invade Russia. This is the most stupid thing ever. They actually want to give themselves the value they do not have (who gives a shit about millions of acres of frozen land).

[@qq-ei1cz]

nato has no incentive to attack and nato includes a bunch of countries, which is a war on the drum at all

[@ezOqekuRitusohI]

Belarus already joined the war when it allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine from its territory. Belarus must be placed under the same strict sanctions as Russia, and must be forced to pay reparations in exchange for lifting those sanctions.

[@davidmarkwort9711]

The question is what has Belarus to lose? Everything!

[@grontelp77]

Remember how poor Russia’s readiness was when the war started? Now imagine how many x worse Belarusian armed forces are. It’s just more mouths to feed and more casualties if they entered the war. Not going to happen.

[@Joepacker]

There would also be the possibility that some Belarus army personal would defect to Ukraine if they were sent there.

[@revolverDOOMGUY]

Actually I want Belarus to attack Ukraine, because they would lose badly and Lucashenko would be deposed. Russia would not be capable of doing much to stop this because they are way too busy in Ukraine right now, to the point that they do not even police CSTO countries at the moment. I think Lucashenko knows this and simply agreed to held a false staging ground just to distract Ukraine a bit.

[@emperorgiz1]

Some people aren't smart, But that's okay

[@mrmacias4217]

Dream on

[@emperorgiz1]

@@mrmacias4217 Simga has entered the chat

[@nervsouly]

I always thought Belorussian soldiers were busy beating unarmed young women in the name of their dictator and thus could not be assigned to other tasks.

[@bobstitzenberger1834]

Poland should do maneuvers on the Belarus border. Maybe joint maneuvers with Lithuania.

[@hansjorgkunde3772]

you have not understood it. Russia and Belarus are one military by now. This includes taking Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. What use have maneuvers at the Belarus border ? To poke the Bear ? You mismatch also the intentions of Poland, they just want eastern Poland back, yes the whole Ukraine including Kiev, except the eastern part that belonged to Russia.

[@KaiserS0ZE]

@@hansjorgkunde3772 everything Russia has is stolen. Kyiv existed for 1000 years before moscow or St. Peterburg.

[@6153_]

@@hansjorgkunde3772 Russia is weak they know when they use nuclear weapons moscow will be wiped out in minutes

[@bobstitzenberger1834]

@@hansjorgkunde3772 , if the Belarus military were part of the Russian military, Belarus would be at war right now. Polish and Lithuanian troops on the Belarus border would mean Belarus would have to increase military presence there, which means fewer troops near Ukraine. That means Ukraine can send some of its troops from the Belarus border to places where combat is happening.

[@bobstitzenberger1834]

@@hansjorgkunde3772 , Poland knows that if Ukraine falls to Russia, Poland is next.

[@ericvulgate]

Russia would gain little but Belarus could lose everything.

[@petersouthernboy6327]

Let the bodies hit the ground ❤

[@DirtyHairy1]

lol the sponsor is the next embarrassing scam to bei busted soon but take the sponsor money off them, its fine

[@edwardvalivonis23]

Russia won't gain anything wether Belarus joins or not, but Ukraine will gain extra fertiliser that's for sure

[@johngoetzinger1605]

Some people are actually so empty and miserable they type shit like this. I support Russia wholeheartedly, but even I don't want throngs of Ukranian levies to be slaughtered for no reason.

[@connorgolden4]

@@johngoetzinger1605 He didn’t say he wished for it or wanted it. Just that that would be the end result. And it’s true. Russia has had no luck there and Belarus would just get slaughtered. If they didn’t turn on Luka first lol.

[@willbarnstead3194]

Great video! Very comprehensive!

[@iwilltellyouthetruth2822]

Yea, great video just pure bla bla, but things are completely diferente 100% pure propaganda.

[@gamincaimin9954]

4:03 I didn’t know I was on the weapon market

[@mmarsh1972]

I think Belrus joining the war would be a disaster for Belrus. First of the military of Belarus like the population is quite small, somewhere between 50-60,000K so their participation would be minimal. Secondly if Belarus were defeated, it would be wide open for Ukrainian counterattack and that's bad because Lukashenko also stole HIS election and isnt extremely popular in Belarus. There are many Belarusians fighting for Ukraine who dream of taking the war to Minsk, and there would not be much the Russians could do to help if that happened. There is also a threat from Poland (who is massively rearming with modern Western Weapons), that arbors no love for Lukashenko either, if Belarus is weakened and Russian is in position to offer aid, it wouldn't surprise me if the Poles decided to take care of their Eastern border themselves.

[@piotrd.4850]

50k of reasonably equipped, trained, supplied soldiers is death kneel for Ukraine. But Belarus and Lukashenko have different goals.

[@von6164]

I love this channel, thanks Binkov !

[@driesvdc2]

Excellent analysis

[@Bk6346]

Considering how this war has gone Belarus would be foolish to get involved.

[@live_free_or_perish]

Good observations. Cleared up a lot I wasn't sure about. I hope you're right about this.

[@johnladuke6475]

Before even watching, I'll answer the question in the title. I know Binkov's just looking at a crazy hypothetical here. But what Russia would gain is a new dependent province called Belarus, and what it would lose is the war in Ukraine and probably some of its new colony Belarus to boot. Lukashenko is _deeply_ unpopular with the public and needs his loyal military at home to keep control of the country. He can't risk conscription or mass recruitment because that will amount to arming the people who were rioting against his rule just a couple years ago. The only value Belarus offers Russia here is to be a staging ground and potential invasion route - which they're willing to do without officially joining the war. It's actually _more_ beneficial for Russia to have a grey area in Belarus where they can build bases and potentially launch attacks, but where Ukraine's counter-strikes would risk drawing Belarus in with the support of an angry public.

[@TylerRichardson14]

Good analysis on the situation! Straight to the point and no beating around the bush.

[@TylerRichardson14]

Good analysis on the situation! Straight to the point and no beating around the bush.

[@stevinharper3551]

Hasn't sent conscripts?? So what do you call the people forced to mobilize and fight without training or proper equipment. They are not volunteers or professional.

[@hergestellt2961]

Very detailed analysis, thanks

[@brianrobinson75]

Say what you want about how bad Belarus is they do have one thing going for them. Their flag kinda rocks

[@johnathanwalker8395]

Maybe Ukraine will let then fly it, at a lower height than the Ukraine flag in the territories they take.

[@mathiasrryba]

I prefer old Belarusian white red white personally

[@mrmacias4217]

@@johnathanwalker8395 🤓🤓🤓

[@JK-br1mu]

The US Army Rangers could conquer Belarus by themselves.

[@jasonbourne44]

You watch too many rambo movie.

[@SelfProclaimedEmperor]

@@jasonbourne44 He's not wrong, there are several tens of thousands US army rangers, and they are all elite. That's as big as the Belorussian army, but the rangers are all special forces.

[@ZetaMoolah]

@@jasonbourne44the Rangers are primarily a force multiplier. If you put 1,000 Rangers in Belarus, you’ll end up with a 10,000 strong anti-Lukashenko fighting force. Now you make the OP completely black and you have only rumors of Americans in Belarus and a quietly growing number of recently trained and armed pissed off Belarusians.

[@mythosboy]

Belarus as much more than airstrips and training personnel seems mighty expensive. Another quality video, Binkov. Thanks.

[@Agent-bm1dv]

In Feb they surprised Ukraine with Kiev attack. This time Ukraine is ready with Trenches , mines and sensors. Also being monitored by US Drones if they ever try to cross.

[@Altair885]

Once the precedent has been set by Belarus joining the war, then there's nothing to stop other countries doing the same! For instance a NATO member state may also get involved, then there would be further escalation if that country itself gets attacked, this will then trigger article 5 which will bring all of NATO into direct conflict with Russia.

[@jj-ry2db]

If belarus entered ukraine u can bet that ukraine also will go into belarus to remove that dictator which will benefit europe and ukraine

[@mrmacias4217]

Pathetic joke

[@RandomGuy9]

Best case: a few more troops Worst case: losing its closest ally

[@paulpowell4871]

Anyone that makes himself "President for life" is a madman

[@penskepc2374]

I'm president of my chain of sausage carts for life

[@johnladuke6475]

Calling me a madman? That's treason! I'll have the Minister of Justice give you a fair trial in absentia at which you will be found guilty and sentenced to execution.

[@perturabo7825]

I wonder if they’d start digging trenches in the exclusion zone again

[@pezpengy9308]

i prefer my important news regarding world shaping events of international importance to be delivered by a talking frog puppet. the inherentt dignity adds extra gravitas to the message.

[@salomonvonrajalin1061]

Everyday is a good day when binkov posts🙂

[@cogentdynamics]

It seems to me that now would be a good time for a major military exercise and war games in nato countries bordering Belarus and Russia.

[@row7820]

Nato does it all the time and Russia cries about it each time. It will be the same business as usual.

[@J_X999]

A video on Japan's new build up would be great! As much as I support a strong Japan, I genuinely don't think they are the all powerful counter-balance to China. Japan will be crucial in war with China, but those thinking they will hold off the PLA on their own with their new, flashy weapons will be sourly disappointed. I don't overestimate the US allies or underestimate China.

[@ericvulgate]

Japan doesn't have young people to use as cannon fodder.

[@JeikuAnimeReview]

Who said Japan would stop PLA by itself? No one claims that, but a strong Japan GREATLY deters invasion from PLA, it makes things far more difficult.

[@J_X999]

@@ericvulgate Young people for cannon fodder is irrelevant. Nowadays we've got drones and autonomous vehicles to use as cannon fodder, which is much better.

[@J_X999]

@@JeikuAnimeReview Absolutely, but a boost in defence spending isn't going to do as much as people think. Japan has many issues, it will be a long winding road to regaining strength.

[@JeikuAnimeReview]

@@J_X999 You said it woulden't be enough that would allow Japan to fend off PLA, that's a claim no one is making. Japan requires an enemy force to land vessels to actually invade, that's a massive advantage that even a small amount of military build up can make a massive difference.

[@geiers6013]

Ahahaha I love the shot at 17:32. I always think if Russia fucks around even more they will find out why the US has no universal healthcare.

[@royalukas8144]

Interesting analysis, Binkov! Thanks

[@rxonmymind8362]

Russia sent the troops to Belarus because they couldn't feed them.

[@tricky1992000]

The largest grain supporter in the world can't feed it's soldiers?

[@rxonmymind8362]

@@tricky1992000 Judging by all the Russian raids on local stores and the prisoners Ukraines have taken they have all said "Commanders leave us and left us with no food or water. Just dropped us off in the front". Ok, I know his is very sporadic and I'd venture to guess rare but it is happening. I also meant that tongue in cheek where the Russians could offload so many soldiers on to Belarus and have Belarus feed them clothe them and house them. A joke.

[@mikejuvenile5551]

@@tricky1992000 these brainwashed clowns has lost the plot

[@tvgerbil1984]

Lukashenko has no nukes. The American restriction on Ukraine does not apply to targets in Belarus if Belarus attacks first.

[@gushingranny475]

In my armchair historian view. I think Belarus would preform similarly to the Italians in WW2. They would put in token efforts at the start to help Ukraine but after facing Losses, the Russian troops would have to prop up the Lukashenko Regime, which would be dealing with NATO backed Rebels and Regular Ukranian forces trying to take Minsk.

[@Jagonath]

Exactly. Belarus will declare its support for Russia, Putin will scream "Yes!" and Lukashenko will reply "Send help immediately!"

[@MrRamSwe]

The question is - what will Lukasjenko lose if Belarus joins russia in the war - Answer: Everything 😂😂

[@marcoperches3078]

11:40 what are you talking about? Russia has sent a crap ton of conscripts to the Ukraine war.

[@henryquecabral9357]

It sent around 150.000 conscripts to serve as a meatshield against current Ukrainian ofensives, it conscripted upwards of 300.000, the other 150.000 are under training, forming new units and merging with existing ones, likely to be used in spring. That's the partial mobilization expressed in the video, a full or at least "most complete" mobilization would mean a lot more than that, in "paper" it could mean 2 million reservists, but I doubt that even if tried russia would have the training facilities to train that many people.

[@ZK-ff2ru]

They sent reservists, not conscripts

[@komi4127]

@@ZK-ff2ru same thing, reservist were conscripts few years ago..

[@mbak7801]

@@ZK-ff2ru Some of the 'reservists' were only 17 years old. Well according to their paperwork taken from their corpses. They should have been a minimum of 18 which is strange. When their faces were not smashed up they looked super young.

[@marcoperches3078]

@@ZK-ff2ru They have also sent conscripts. Its been documented all war.

[@Oleksandr-snk]

Border with Belarus HAS BEEN fortified and mined for months. Defence forces are bored there watching tiktoks and want Belarus to attack.

[@geopoliticalwhizz]

Great video mate. What did you use to create the map animation?

[@usun_politics1033]

I am Belarusian. Belarus won't send its troops across the border no matter what happens. Russia would need to occupy Belarus first before being able to drag us into this mess. This is universal consensus across government and opposition.

[@DuBaas007]

I am so happy that Belarusians are not putting up with Putin's BS, i hope your country has a bright future without opression!

[@usun_politics1033]

Thanks. We sure have a lot of issues, but it could be so much worse. We don't particularly care about Russian crusades and sticking with them mostly due to economy and culture.

[@DuBaas007]

@@usun_politics1033 Yea, i hope that you'll have a new leader in the nearby future, who can open up trade with the west again, you people are awesome and deserve good lives.

[@gumpmosh]

Poland will force Belarus to join the war

[@JamsheedRPGgod]

belarus is already under russian occupation, like it or nit

[@Michael-tg7ev]

Great research. Makes complete sense

[@Kinesis17]

Great video, but the comment section is causing me to lose brain cells.

[@dexexmachinatu4151]

I come for the good analysis video and stay for the clownfest in the comment section

[@DrCruel]

It reflects the strategic situation. Russia is floundering, but Ukraine is unable to land a knockout blow, and the US is anxious to keep it that way. For the moment the war is at a stalemate and has become a penis-measuring contest.

[@far_centrist]

@@DrCruel FYI russia has captured marinka, andreevka, and close to capturing soledar (it may have already been). Bakhmut is encircled and under constant shelling while russia just sit back, relax, and fire the artillery/mortars, leading to numerous casualties in ukr side. Ever wonder why the zaporozhye offensive has not materialized? They are pouring everything into bakhmut.

[@DrCruel]

@@far_centrist Oh my goodness. Bakhmut might fall any day now. The Ukrainians might as well surrender if they lose Bakhmut. How low the mighty Russia has fallen ...

[@far_centrist]

@@DrCruel why force it to fall when the ukranian gracefully provided russia with constant artillery target with zero efforts? Actually getting the place to fall will only push the ukranian to a more defensible position. Russia doesn't care about western optics, it's doing very well on its own and proceeds at its own pace. That thousands of dead conscripts in bakhmut would not be easy to hide for long. 30+ of the most powerful nations provided aid, meanwhile the ukranian is advancing backwards 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@westtex3675]

Reminds me of WW1. While the Entente or the Central Powers would often compete to recruit neutral nations to their side, sometimes winning a recruit would cause more trouble than it was worth. A nation might be too weak to seriously help you and would just cause you to have to overextend your frontlines to protect the new ally. Or cause you to waste troops helping the ally suppress domestic revolts. Countries like Romania, Italy, Austro-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire were seen as liabilities at various times.

[@alexmuenster2102]

>>Countries like Romania, Italy, Austro-Hungary, and

[@westtex3675]

@alexmuenster2102 no shit, sherlock. That doesn’t mean it was as powerful as Germany. Especially towards the end of the war, when it was a husk of its former self and *very* much the *junior* partner in the relationship. Yet Feldmarschall Conrad still kept trying to mount unwise offensives, which often collapsed and required the Germans to bail him out in an effort to prevent the total collapse of Austro-Hungary. Listen to “A World Undone” by G.J. Meyer.

[@Holammer]

Having the Poles amassing hardware and barking (doing a mad dog routine) at the border would intimidate Luka from even thinking about joining the fight in any meaningful way.

[@ivanstepanovic1327]

That's simple... A part of Ukrainian troops will be tied there. That's it. However, will Belarus join? I doubt it... Its army is way smaller and Lukashenko needs it to protect him from his own people. If they fight Ukraine, who will protect him? On top of it all, little support in Belarus public for the war...

[@iaon652]

You mean, ukrainians will keep belarusian back to prevent them killing russians?

[@bumfluffmcregor3730]

Belarus will just suffer the same fate as russia

[@francissalguero1111]

Yes, they can carve good chunks of territory from the north of ukraine, i think thats a good fate

[@bumfluffmcregor3730]

@@francissalguero1111 they'll just get their share of America's billion dollar bombs and sanctions then the country will be crippled for the next century same as russia Russia is screwed for the next 50 years now

[@SelfProclaimedEmperor]

Ukraine has now heavily mined their border with Belarus and dug countless trenches, they said they would stop any Belorussian attack at the border.

[@OldWestGirl]

How embarrassing for Russia _ have to ask for help ???

[@koriuk5032]

Is it just me? Every time I see the Belarusian president I just see the warden from the TV series prison break... lol

[@supermash1]

Yeah, he looks like a dull knife.

[@whitescar2]

Belarus is not a third party to the conflict. It is a belligerent nation due to its support of Russian forces on its territory. Or else, Belarus is occupied territory, if we assume instead that Russians are there against the will of the Belarus government.

[@kohlweisshans3653]

Imagin this: The "superpower Russia" is demanding help from a country with the military strength of about Austria :-) Nobody fears Austria, so why fear Belarus :-)

[@teasellermodi5897]

So called Superpower USA, NATO lost the war in Afghanistan. 😂🤣😅😆

[@kieranwalsh2058]

@@teasellermodi5897 Russians lost there too remember

[@teasellermodi5897]

@@kieranwalsh2058 But USA and NATO lost more humiliating way. 😂🤣😅😆

[@mattiasbrunzell8957]

More humiliating how? By staying in the conflict twice as long with a third of the losses Soviet Union suffered?

[@teasellermodi5897]

@@mattiasbrunzell8957 Yes, more humiliation for US and NATO. They comes in Afghanistan with latest weapons, latest technologys, world's largest, strongest force(US) world's largest, strongest military’s organisation force(NATO) and spends 2500 BN Dollars. But still lost, Ass whipped by sone few Afghan freedom fighters with their ancient weapons, ancient technologys. How big loser USA, NATO, Western World is. Not forget, they lost to Vietnam and Korea too last century. 😂🤣😅😆

[@g4m3r222]

I expect the Belarus military to perform like the Russian, it will be total sh it too.

[@mrc1500]

Worse

[@dannyv2468va2]

@One Nut Man Sadly yes. The Belarus people want nothing to do with this war.

[@supremelore_1533]

awesome video! Btw this is nitpicky but.... I rather the old faceless icons for troops on each side. I feel like their silhouettes could be updated, but not so much giving then color and faces yunno. Keeps thing 'analytical'.

[@ReaperCH90]

The russian botarmy is fucking fast, lol.

[@migangelmart]

Made in China.

[@alamo134]

It's kinda baffling for me for Russia not sending their T-90s. Instead they rely on T-72s.

[@dreambim2446]

same shit.

[@Torbjorn.Lindgren]

They've lost at least 27 T-90 including AFAIK at least one T-90M destroyed and one captured. The T-90M variant has a number of upgrades and the first 10 was AFAIK delivered in 2020! So clearly they weren't holding back even the latest models during the early part of the invasion. The confirmed losses of T-90 variants of the Russia active duty total is a much smaller percentage than of the percentage of "active duty" T-72 or T-80 (more than 50%!) lost but given that the T-90 really doesn't seem to perform better than the T-72 in Ukraine why would they send more of the latest and most expensive variant when it doesn't perform better? From their perspective it's already bad that West now likely has copies of all the improved electronics in it, why send more samples to Ukraine? And at worst it may even end up being used by the Ukraine - AFAIK the Ukraine now have more tanks than when they started despite their losses thanks to captures of Russian equipment. Russia do have a vast fleet of "reserve" MBTs and in there the T-72 (7000) and the T-80 (3000) completely overwhelm the T-90 (200). Yes, many of these are likely in bad shape but... a T-72 can mostly be fixed with a sledgehammer and lots of gruntwork, the reserve T-90 is likely far harder to get going again. The fact that even the reserve T-72 doesn't seem to be refurbished and thrown at Ukraine is probably a good indicate of how bad the state these are in. Russia has even lost a few T-62 and T-64's sent as reinforment.

[@alamo134]

@@Torbjorn.Lindgren ah, good answer. Thanks.

[@looinrims]

But they are, besides T72 is perfectly adequate against what Ukraine has, may as well keep the expensive stuff either with the most valuable units or on standby for an escalation with NATO

[@mrmacias4217]

@@Torbjorn.Lindgren Lmao please tell me what you’re on ? don’t do drugs kids you end up with morons like this 😢

[@blurglide]

At 3:32 there are soldiers lined up behind an APC, each with their muzzles RIGHT NEXT to the ear of the man in front of them. Guaranteed permanent hearing loss, not to mention a stumble away from blowing heads off.

[@SarahH0g4n]

Not so. Main sounds will be from apc if any

[@SarahH0g4n]

Heard APC rounds close up. Good to use sound cancelling headphones but definitely bearable for average soldier.

[@broreece]

@@SarahH0g4n are you insane? I'll literally pay money for you to go to a shooting range with me, you don't wear headphones and I'll fire a gun right beside your ear, 120 db can cause permeant ear damage and the smallest guns have a db of 160.

[@blurglide]

@@SarahH0g4n I'm talking about the muzzle of the AK from the soldier behind you being right next to your ear, not the gun on the APC

[@SterbiusMcGurbius]

Masterworks is a scam