Who will WIN THE WAR for Skyrim? Stormcloaks vs the Empire

[@ShoddyCast]

I'm loving all the comments on this video, especially everyone with their own theories and opinions on what would actually happen. Keep 'em coming! I don't mind being told that I'm wrong, as long as you're nice about it :D

[@fane877]

Maybe you could do a part 2 with some of the points being raised, such as Ulfric’s status as a tongue or a possible alliance with Hammerfell?

[@bananatv3017]

It’s all about perspective on a subject as complex and unpredictable as war and human behavior (and we’re talking about fantasy here so anything goes). How can there be one right answer? Love your videos and we’ll wait for the next ones as soon as you feel ready to 🙂💙

[@DPS_GMs]

Just want to say: the redguards are fighting their own rebellion, thus it must s unlikely that hammerfell would have troops sent to aid solitude.

[@DPS_GMs]

Another thing is that the vast majority of the imperial soldiers are civilian volunteers. Tulis comment on this and adds that he believes that if he had been sent with a single legion then the war would have ended in the first few months. Most of those volunteers are non nord farmers, dark elf refugees (that sitz happed a literal hundred years ago and you still identify as a refugee?), and the rare legionaries sent from cyrodil (mostly marking up leadership, or more specialized positions). We also see this as there are no orcs in the legion, something we know is very common as orcs use the legion to prove their skills in a fight and behind a forge. You also have to remember that the empire’s economy is in shambles, a whole half of the east empire trade companies holding in Skyrim are failing, and Victoria vicci the owner of the solitude branch is likely to be murdered by dark brotherhood assassins. Many solitude merchants are also supplying the stormcloaks, as well as many in solitude agreeing with the cause. On the other hand yes solitude is very defensible, having two keeps and multiple gatehouses, as well as the best equipped garrison in the entire nation. There are many mages and priests that can assist with both artillery and medical needs. Solitudes only entrances are either the main gate which is on a steep incline OR the windmill that can only fit owner or two men abreast and is easily defended. (If in defended the windmill could allow a sisible amount of stormcloak soldiers to provide a distraction from the main gate)

[@argentandroid5732]

Nah, the Stormcloaks were always doomed. Even if they managed to gain a victory it would be costly, and they would immediately have to suppress an uprising from every non-Nord race in Skyrim.

[@AdamSmith-jb2lf]

One point I'd add: Ulfric is a Tongue. He could maybe Shout Whiterun's gate down to take the city. He literally did this in his youth to Markarth (claimed as the most impregnable cities in Skyrim). If he didn't have the Dragonborn to win all his battles for him, he could go out and participate in the fights himself - dangerous, given as you say he's the one figure that can't afford to die, but he's genuinely one of the most dangerous warriors in the country because of this. Ulfric's still absolutely on the back foot, but the man's a walking bombard, so he has a shot.

[@ShoddyCast]

Good point!

[@AdamSmith-jb2lf]

@@ShoddyCast oh my god dad noticed me-

[@blecis74]

There’s a reason the Nords didn’t need Seige engines or Cavalry, it’s because they had the Thu’um

[@goatslayer3160]

And shouts are even more powerful in lore than in game. They don't have a cool down, imagine Ulfric spamming Fus ro da, or disarm, he'd be near unstoppable.

[@blecis74]

@@goatslayer3160 exactly, the gates of Whiterun and Solitude would be useless against Ulfric, whilst The Empire would have to use siege engines for Windhelm

[@LiamBar2010]

I love that your rationale boils down to geography and resources; as the old saying goes, amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics.

[@madmanwithaplan1826]

Strategists talk weather. No one ever really remembers that Tamerial has seasons. its the 17th of Last Seed for example when Skyrim starts lets review the current weather at that time The Ghost sea is starting to freeze over near the Harbors and the only Mountain pass into Cyrodil is Frozen over. LAST SEED IS LATE SUMMER. General Tullius has to survive 10 months with no backup from anywhere. since the pass freezes in late summer i really doubt it thaws in the spring either. the ghost sea with freeze and stop all boat travel and Tullius and his band of Volunteer Legionares are gonna have to stale mate Ulfric for 10 months on lets say whatever supplies the Empire can ship in the next month and whatever aid the other Jarls uprepared for feeding a army can give. Meanwhile Ulfric is sitting in WInterhold doing light Skirmishes because he knows Tullius will run out of Strength Eventually

[@dutchpatriot17]

@@madmanwithaplan1826 Salt water does not freeze, there are some icebergs in the Sea of Ghosts, that is all. Pale Pass is not frozen over, it suffered an avalanche. Your claims are baseless.

[@MizanQistina]

There are a lot of mammoth and horkers...

[@spider_strand]

​@@dutchpatriot17um, that's blatantly wrong. Salt water DOES freeze, it simply takes lower temperatures than freshwater or treated water.

[@raindroproses1107]

There's one group you may have forgotten: the Forsworn. They may not be all that fond of the Empire, but they HATE Ulfric. The very moment the Stormcloak army crossed into the Reach, they would need to be on high alert against ambushes. The Forsworn wouldn't be able to face them in open combat, but constant hit-and-run tactics would wear anyone down.

[@andersmadsen2145]

Bro, they hate both with a damn passion.

[@DabroodThompson]

@@andersmadsen2145 But they hate Ulfric *more*.

[@skyseymour3952]

Originally, the Civil War was gonna be really big. You were gonna have a major battle at every hold and if you lost too many cities, you lose the war. Plus each side was was gonna get giants. But they scrapped ot so they wouldn't take away from the main story

[@Practitioner_of_Diogenes]

It was more time constraint related, to be honest. Also, it was Stormcloaks that were suppose to have giants, not Imperials.

[@demomanchaos]

They should have made the CW the main story, tacked on the wyverns later with Big Gay Al showing up near the end of the war triggered by all the bloodshed. That wouldn't work for the instant-gratification crowd who needs a big spectacle in the first 10 minutes, but actual RPG elements could be reintroduced if they stopped catering to those dweebs. Seriously, do it so you have Imperial, coward, elf, or a Yes-Man option for the CW with the big lizards held off until later or trickling into things little by little (An early quest triggers the revival of some, with them getting more and more of a problem until Big Gay Al shows up to munch the souls of the fallen).

[@MotoCat91]

Would have been cool if they brought out a DLC well after release that unlocked the full plans of the war.. More than enough time for everyone to experience the main story first Due to the toned down nature of it, despite having many different playthroughs over hundreds of hours I never once made it all the way through the civil war story

[@demomanchaos]

@@MotoCat91 DLC? Why not just a free update that completes the game rather than forcing people to buy an incomplete game then fining them for wanting to have the full thing? Seriously, so utterly sick of people asking to be worked over by FISTO by these companies.

[@MotoCat91]

@@demomanchaos DLC wasn't always paid content.. there was a time that DLC generally meant free updates and 'Expansions' were the paid ones. So yeah I agree, that should be free as it was part of the original vision promoted for the game. I don't mind the idea of it coming later to the original release though as it would have given more time to flesh it out and without taking too much focus and fanfare from the main story.

[@Forsworcen]

Technically Ulfric had already lost the war in like the first few minutes of the game. If the dragons hadn’t interrupted the execution they would’ve just killed him and been done with it. Edit: as a side note the lack of defensive structures in key positions in Skyrim is insane! There are many points on the map that, if manned/built up would effectively stop all passage through entirely.

[@TheContrarian09]

Maybe if Doc Mitchell decided to kill Ulfric first instead of some thief and all of his troops first. Wouldnt be surprised if the thalmar wouldnt have pulled some shit right before the axe hits his neck.

[@johndavidtibbetts7320]

except the thalmor don't want that. You find out in a note in the thalmor embassy that Ulfric MIGHT (the thalmor, for obvious reasons, can't really get close enough to him to confirm it) be an unknowing sleeper agent for the Thalmor. They want this war to go on for as long as humanly possible, either side winning is BAD for them, as seen with the imperial ending where General Tullius all but says he'll look the other way if you track down and viciously murder every thalmor you find. Most likely the Thalmor would have intervened when Ulfric's turn came, and that's why they were at helgen in the first place.

[@krissybaglin9206]

That's because it's not to scale. Skyrims population would be 75% bandits and outlaws, and have about the entire makeup of a small walled town not the supposed 5 walled cities if you read it strictly as the ingame numbers. And not to mention the possible range of soilders and guards ranges from 200 to 1,000,000,000 depending on if you're willing to kill 1,000,000,000 guards as the respawn. . . Also there's more dragons than burial sites.

[@Forsworcen]

@@johndavidtibbetts7320 he’s definitely being used to destabilize Skyrim unknowingly by the Thalmer. As for what they could realistically do to stop his execution without starting a war that they’re not ready for? Well honestly that would have been difficult for them to pull off. The dossiers also make it fairly obvious that they weren’t sure how to delay the execution themselves and that the involvement of the dragons was a welcome surprise.

[@Elessar0wind]

Hoe do you know it wouldn't of just been a martyr if they did? Especially with the Thalmor having a part in it.

[@baconbitzlol]

There are a lot of really excellent points being made in the comments about how Ulfric's proficiency with the Voice and Hammerfell being an independant province make this more difficult for the legion, but I do want to point out something incredibly important that the game mechanics (though not the lore), the top comments, and Austin all overlooked; the Legion employs battlemages. Consider the sheer value that a regimen of battlemages could provide an army. Theyre mobile artillery with Destruction magic. They can reshape the land with Alteration. They can conjure hordes of daedra with Conjuration, which have their own unique and terrifying abilities. They can inspire unshakeable loyalty and valor in their soldiers, and rout the enemy lines with a flick of the fingers using Illusion. But the most important skill for an Army is Restoration. In pre-industrial times, the number 1 killer during war wasnt direct damage, but disease and infection. Imagine the utility of having a regimen of trained healers. For every 10 soldiers that your enemy dropped, 7 would rejoin the battle in an hour at most. With the ability to restore stamina to weary soldiers, armies become far more mobile. Heck, there's lore and mechanics from previous games that supports the notion that Restoration can make your soldiers stronger, faster, and tougher. Im aware that Ulfric has Winterhold, but the College of Winterhold is at odds with the government of that hold, and are implied to be fully neutral as an organization. And considering the attitude of modern Nords towards magic, I doubt there are many battlemages among the stormcloaks. So yes, while Ulfric's Thu'um is powerful, and while the difficulties the empire face are numerous, this isnt even a contest. Even without veteran legionaires from Cyrodil, I give Ulfric's rebellion in a lore-accurate Skyrim less than a month.

[@Farenhyte-]

If I'm not mistaken, in lore, a battlemage is equal to anybwakrrior of equivalent skill. Magic in the elder scrolls, at least the magic that is widely available to mages, isn't the all powerful superweapon it is in a lot of other fictional universes. The thuum seems to be a specific exception

[@baconbitzlol]

@@Farenhyte- Well, you arent entirely wrong. The average battlemage is roughly as dangerous as the average warrior. But the important part isnt their combat potential so much as their utility to an army. That's why I put focus on the restoration school.

[@drewhammond5203]

​not to mention that while the healing arts are coveted in Cyrodill, they aren't ubiquitous, and many forms of summoning such as Daedra and Necromancy are frowned upon if not outright banned.

[@dutchpatriot17]

​@@drewhammond5203Summoning Daedra is perfectly legal, as is necromancy. Though necromancy does have rules attached to it.

[@madmanwithaplan1826]

but no one mentions that the pass into cyrodil is frozen over in late summer. General Tullius isnt getting those battle mages for 10 months since i doubt they thaw in spring if they freeze in winter. the portion of the ghost sea is already starting to freeze over as well making any chance of receiving aid by boat a limited time thing only.

[@legendofloki665i9]

Don't forget the elephant in the room - there is no real imperial legion in Skyrim, only its general and command staff. All the soldiers under his command were recruited locally, and it is revealed at some point that a real Cyrodil veteran legion waits at Bruma for the mountain passes to Skyrim to open up. The rebellion never stood a chance.

[@greenfrogbad]

If the Empire had the ability, or will, to crush the rebellion they would have sent a real legion with Tulius. They clearly lack the resources, or political will within the elder council. The Empire is a hollowed out husk.

[@Draevan13]

IIRC, in that same note you're referencing, you learn that the Empire has committed only 1 Legion, the 18th, to Skyrim. The other minimum of 17 are stationed along the border with the Dominion in anticipation of a Second Great War with the Thalmor. The Empire sadly can't afford to commit too many legions to Skyrim in case the Dominion decides to invade, but 1 or 2 more should do the trick.

[@goatslayer3160]

They likely sent a legion to retake Hammerfell after it rebelled, and it's still independent. Also if the imperials in Skyrim were recruited locally, that means the ones waiting outside weren't, and wouldn't be used to the cold climate, putting them at a disadvantage. Realistically Ulfric could just lure them into the passage and shout at the mountain and take out the whole legion.

[@bendo9162]

@@goatslayer3160 Hammerfell never rebelled, but was let go by the Empire to stop the war with the Thalmor. Hammerfell didn't want to cede any territory to them and wanted to fight on against the elves. Therefore, to have peace, the Empire parted with the territory.

[@LewisB3217]

@@bendo9162the Redguards beat the thalmors butts anyways, which is prob why they entered a truce with them in the end, to stop the beating they were taking

[@Riastrad-hq6ds]

I hope this means the who will win the war series is making a permanent comeback. The NCR vs. Legion video you made is one of my favorites on the channel and I was hoping the format would make a return when you started uploading again.

[@ShoddyCast]

I'd love to make more, but there's not a ton of games where I can feasibly do it that people would care enough to watch.

[@Riastrad-hq6ds]

@@ShoddyCastI had a feeling that would be the case especially since F:NV is kind of the high bar for games that have thought this stuff through that isn’t a strategy game. However if you would like to make another one of these I would suggest the Galactic Cold War and Galactic War from BioWare’s The Old Republic mmo. I know Star Wars is a movie franchise which turned into the greatest multimedia empire in history but it is still technically a video game and is probably one of the best thought out conflicts in the entire Star Wars franchise to boot.

[@cogwheel6076]

@@ShoddyCastmy man. Shit it doesn’t need to just be games. Alternate history would be a tad weird, but would work. Or just making up your own shit.

[@Barmem]

​@@ShoddyCasthalf-life would be interesting one to listen about, but I don't know if there's much info there.

[@Marianojoey]

@@ShoddyCast Actually, if you post it, I'm pretty sure most of your followers (if not all) would watch it, no matter what. For example, I don't like FO4. From my point of view is NOT a FO game, it's just a crappy FPS with skins that try to be FO, and spoon feeds you a story for you to just "move forward". It sucks. And yet, I've seen ALL your videos about it, several times in fact, because I really enjoy your "GOD DAMN TERRYFING"s and "MAKES NO DAMN SENSE"s. :D So yeah, go make more videos about anything and everything, I'm sure you'll get the views and the likes. :D

[@Halak014]

hear all the hard tactical options Stormcloaks have and I was just waiting on the "then they all go heavy armor stealth archer".

[@skylern.spenillo9710]

The English had their longbowmen, the Mongols had the shortbow calvary, and the Nords have the heavy armour stealth archer.

[@SorowFame]

@@skylern.spenillo9710if you want to train a heavy armour stealth archer, start with their grandfather.

[@johnuselmann2704]

Contrary to most of the player's gametime where Ulfric is only found in his palace in Winterhold, I think the only reason the stormcloaks have a foothold in the fight is because Ulfric fights alongside them. This would not only boost moral and reduce time loss from messengers, Ulfric is the strongest soldier the Stormcloaks have, wielding the Thun as he does. This idea is supported by the fact he was captured near Helgen means he's likely fighting on the frontlines with his soldiers, which he would continue to do if Skyrim wasn't a game.

[@dutchpatriot17]

Ulfric was captured at Darkwater Crossing, not at Helgen.

[@NikkyElso]

​@dutchpatriot17 to add, that is well within Stormcloak territory, which means that the Stormcloaks really don't have that great control over their own front line, despite how defensive it is.

[@somedogsarecops2354]

@@NikkyElso Eh not really, i don't believe the game explains what Ulfric was doing so far south. It's likely just to be with the player, and in a scenario where plot doesn't make Ulfric travel to the border without an army, he wouldn't be cpatured.

[@PeachDragon_]

Ulfric is one of the strongest mortal humans period. People underestimate him but when you remove demigods, gods, reincarnations of gods and dragon borns, he's right at the peak of strength

[@serbreton823]

EXACTLY! I love implementing logic and tactics in games, but people need to realize that this is a GAME. The developers have to leave things out and put things in in order to make the game fun and to a reasonable degree easy. I guarantee that Ulfric AND Tulius fight on the front line and give speeches and tour camps and capture forts and set up and participate in ambushes. Just like Robb Stark and Tywin Lannister in GoT. The Dragonborn just doesn't see it due to traveling all the time.

[@bobseltheslimeking]

A legion from Hammerfell would not be an issue since Hammerfell has been independent for a while now and entered its own truce with the Thalmor. If anything they would support the Stormcloaks. High Rock would be an issue though

[@maromania7]

True. And the fact that this was a quickly slapped together local force. There's throwaway dialogue that mentions this, and that there's an ACTUAL veteran legion coming when the passes clear up. Skyrim takes place in fall. So any seige would be taking place during a time where even the most common of folk would've had enough food stored to last until spring. Where a veteran legion descends upon the starving army like swarm of angry bees!

[@ShoddyCast]

Oops!

[@RogueNinjaa]

Also, I think you missed this, but it does not matter much. There is a path through the Jerall mountains to cyrodiil, but there is a note in fort neugard saying it is blocked by an avalanche.

[@LewisB3217]

The Redguard don’t like the Thalmor, it’s a truce and that’s it, the Redguard could probably wipe them out, shown by how they pushed them back militarily, which probably forced the thalmor to enter a truce with the redguards

[@IncarnateSable]

I just typed up a whole comment on this, second guessed myself, so then came looking for comments to see if I misremembered that part lol

[@albertusvanlubeeck9161]

I'm pleased to see that someone else recognizes the food problem faced by the rebellion. I, too, noticed this issue when exploring the map for the first time. I used to think that Riften was a covert fertile province that provided all the rebel groups with food. However, even if that were the case, it creates a problem where the rebels depend on one source for their essential needs, which is not ideal.

[@Warden409]

I imagine that during the spring and summer it is much easier, but we open into the game in fall. And most of the territories have decent access to waterways, leaving pescotarion lifestyles open. Would a fish-based diet save them? Probably not, as it seems that the sea and rivers would ice over significantly. Would certainly buy more time though.

[@LewisB3217]

@@Warden409 ice over, and you can only get so much fish

[@albertusvanlubeeck9161]

Although they could survive solely on fish, it would ultimately lead to nutritional deficiencies within a few weeks, putting them at a significant disadvantage. Consequently, they would have to focus on defense as they would lack the necessary energy for effective offensive warfare. While there is still the option to smuggle resources, it is likely that the prices will be exorbitant. It is important to prioritize the acquisition of significant amounts of gold and silver if they go that route.

[@RaderizDorret]

Don't forget that Riften is right on the border with Cyrodil. It wouldn't be hard for the Empire to forcibly pacify the province if they had to.

[@HappyBeezerStudios]

The Empire just needs to take control of the warmer regions, Rifton, Whiterun, Falkreath, where agriculture can be done. Ulfric on the other hand is on borrowed time and would need to push for Solitute before his supplies run out. Which means a direct move is needed.

[@Vansalon]

Chiming in as an elder scrolls lore nerd! I think as far as military analysis goes, you're mostly correct. I'd add that Dawnstar and Riften are both fishing towns, so Ulfric isn't _completely_ reliant on smuggling and Riften's farms, but his food situation still isn't ideal. Financially he's fine for a while, since the richest family in Skyrim, the Silver-Bloods, are stormcloak supporters. And marching troops through Hammerfell isn't much of an option, but someone else already talked about that. If the fight is the Empire vs the Stormcloaks, the Stormcloaks are doomed. But politically, that's not exactly the situation. The imperial forces in Skyrim are mostly locally recruited, organized under General Tullius. There is a proper imperial legion waiting outside, but its use isn't guaranteed (shown by the fact that Skyrim isn't flooded by battlemages if you take Solitude in game as the player). The war isn't a priority to Cyrodiil itself because they're attempting to rebuild their forces to eventually battle the Thalmor again, and the empire was financially and militarily devastated by the Great War. The civil war is unpopular itself in the empire, with the emperor Titus Mede facing criticism for supporting it (and for a lot of other things). In reality, the "imperial" forces Ulfric is facing are fairly even in numbers to his own army, meaning that things like crossing Dragon Bridge or occupying Whiterun (the hold, not the city) are more feasible. And if Ulfric does take Dragon Bridge, Solitude's defeat is effectively inevitable. Like Windhelm, Solitude relies on trade for its food, and there's no feasible supply line outside of Dragon Bridge. It's either through the snowy mountains from High Rock, or across the sea and through a barricaded, rebel-occupied port (since Solitude's port is outside the city walls by a relatively long distance). I think if Ulfric crosses Dragon Bridge and can stave off Fort Hraggstad's garrison, he's won the war as it stands under Tullius's forces. The question is if the empire chooses to militarily reinforce Tullius or give up on stopping the rebellion to focus on preparing for the Dominion. You could speculate that either way. We never see imperial reinforcements in game even after the siege of Solitude, but you could say that it can still happen after the time frame the game takes place in, leaving it as a possibility. Ulfric's victory is ultimately up to whether the empire wants to spend their dwindled resources on the province, I think.

[@GarwenK]

Don't forget that skyrim as a province is an absolute fucking fortress. Every single entrance into it is a narrow as fuck passage with incredibly treacherous terrain (for "safe" roads). Seriously, one shout, one spell or carefully aimed artillery shout could close any of them up and potentially kill thousands trying to invade. The only real option is a naval invasion and uh... there is a reason why naval assaults are practically unheard off in history. How many naval assaults do you know off where the beach hear was contested? And then the empire can feasibly only come from one direction navally, unless they wish to try and sail past the Colage of Winterhold, aka the home of skyrims mages, that just sounds like suicide to me. Not to mention they would have to somehow convince house Telvali to let them through their waters. So yeah, reasonably speaking, ulfric would know for near certainty where the empire would be coming from. And with this they also weaken there navy when there preparing to fight an ISLAND NATION of elves. Trying to take back skyrim honestly seems like the dumbest thing thru could do when theu could instead enter diplomacy and seek an alliance and aid against future elven wars.

[@leandersearle5094]

@@GarwenK Vvarndenfell was wiped out by the simultaneous eruption of Red Mountain and meteor impact on Vivec, what's left of Morrowind is on the mainland. As for Winterhold, you've been there, the city basically doesn't exist (that goes double for its port) and even a troupe of mages would do little more than force naval routes farther out to sea. As to the Telvani, Morrowind is also reeling from the independence of Elsewyr and Blackmarsh, on top of the aforementioned disasters, meaning they have a smaller pool of manpower. ES in general doesn't cover... anything to do water at all very well, but even compared to a clearly waning Empire, the Telvani will compare favorably to the Germans from our own timeline, complete with being spent in one battle. But a diplomatic outcome to the rebellion is actually best for all parties, as Skyrim was never signatory to the White-Gold concordat, and as a non-successor state wouldn't be bound by it. And would then have all of the advantages you listed and more against the proposition of a Dominion invasion.

[@GarwenK]

@leandersearle5094 Yes, I know Vvardenfell was wiped out by those, and I'm not arguing that house telvani could militarily resist the empire. But house Telvani is comprised of some of the most powerful mages in tamriel, in magical might alone some might even surpass some of the psijic order, (though that is pure speculation From what I have read, they are at least second if not comparable. Es doesn't like definitive statements regarding these very much) And I do not believe Vvardenfell was where they vere located in there majority, though normal soldiers/civilians maybe, but the mushroom towers of there's would likely be spread all over morrowind and its islands, and even some of those on Vvardenfell likely could have protected themselves from the fallout. They don't need an army to be a hindrance. From what I've seen, just three mages of house Telvani might be enough to force a detour due to bad weather. Basically, what I'm saying is they are weekend, but still strong enough to turn the oceans stormy and wreck a fleet of they feel like it. They can even claim it just a freak accident and mother nature being fickle. It would not be worth sailing through their waters without first engaging in diplomatic talks, which I would guess would take ages and ages since Telvani is rather known for there... disunity. At the least, they would have to get agreements with the island mages of the house. Whether they would or not is not really the question, its whether they are testy/egotistical enough to try, and I believe them so. And yes no one is arguing that Winterhold could militarily fight against an empire naval force, but the collage was basically untouched by the disaster (besides a bit of decorative damage) so there magical might should still be comparable to before the Volcano eruption and destruction of vivec city. And while skyrim generally doesn't trust Mages, it still sees sense enough to have a collage and a court mage in every hold. I would not argue their strength comparable to the empires, nor would I disagree if you wanted to say skyrim was the weakest of the holds regarding overall power of and number of mages. But I would argue that there are enough in the collage alone to make a naval approach from the west unfeasible. And considering thetr location, a blockade/invasion of windhelm would be... rather unfeasible. It would only take rather simple weather magic (as simple as such magic can get) to be an absolute nightmare for an invading fleet, so yes I do believe they would have to detour around there if they were going to invade from the west. Also, considering the climate we see in skyrims North and that we know the nords original homeland is getting more and more frozen. I do believe there is a limit to how far north an invading fleet can go if only do to glaciers and ice. especially for one unfamiliar with the area. But yes, the collage in this way would effectively be denying the empire a stretch of coastline, limiting how much coast ulfric needs to defend. And, honestly, what I would argue is the biggest reason why they wouldn't invade from the west. Logistics, that supply like would be an absolute fucking NIGHTMARE to defend from pirates alone. Much better to invade from the east and get supplies from high rock, the province right next to skyrim. ... (shit, I just now realised I confused my easter and west's. I do apologise for any confusion this may have causes, I just woke up and am still half asleep. But you know where morrowind and high rock are on the map, morrowind East high rock west.) So yes, all of the above might not dissuade a determined empire, but the civil war is already unpopular enough. I do not see why they would jump through all those hoops, take all those risks and detours, just to invade the sane stretch of coast with a much longer and less secure supply line. All this together is why I say I find a naval invasion from the east suicidal. Whoever would suggest and execute it would have there career ended and so many lives would be lost unecesarily. No, the west is the smarter choice. Though I will admit to not having chosen the proper words to get my point across previously. But at least we agree on the diplomatic part.

[@anvos658]

Even if the imperials send aid there is the big X factor that the Redguard and House Redoran could send aide to the Stormcloaks, given both people have flipped the Imperials the bird, each feeling abandoned by the empire in their own right, and form a new Ebonheart Pact would help them each oppose imperial and thalmer authority.

[@Blockshot16]

@@GarwenKSkyrim is difficult to invade, but I think people far overestimate it. the Alessians invaded, occupying the Reach / approximately a fifth of their land for centuries. The Akaviri invaded in 1E 2703, in which they landed in Northern Skyrim, quickly cutting through the Nords relatively “unchallenged” until forces from Cyrodil and Morrowind aided them to stop the Akaviri’s attempted conquest of Tamriel. The forces from Cyrodil being Reman, with the supposed help of Vivec The Akaviri then invaded again in 2E 572, landing ships near Windhelm then taking the city within 5 days of siege, the Akaviri forces then marched towards Morrowind, taking out Nord forces at Fort Virak on their way. The Nords only beat them by coordinating with the Dunmer on a 2 sided attack, even that wasn’t able to defeat the Akaviri though, as they held back both forces while waiting for their fleet to arrive. They would have arrived and let the Akaviri forces escape as well, if not for 2 legions of Argonians arriving to stop them The Remans should have invaded at least once in which half of their province was conquered. Tiber and Cuhlecain invaded Skyrim and either conquered them, or had them surrender and follow their rule, and there could have been even a few more. I am finding it difficult to even remember a time in which Skyrim was able to keep enemies from making it into their territory in a war. Or to even take it further a single time they were able to stop an attacking force from not only getting into their land, but also capturing significant areas and maintaining a foothold there. The only thing protecting them in Skyrim is that Hammerfell and High rock can protect them from naval invasions given the Nords pathetic naval might, and the Empire being in the way of land invasions Also you mentioned “one spell” but Nords don’t use magic, and have disdain for it, which is honestly one of their bigger flaws in regards to warfare But if we’re just looking at the Empire, then yes they could take Skyrim, is just wouldn’t be worth it since they need to keep their Legions closer to the Dominion border in preparation for another great war

[@CaitofFate]

Skyrim really was like. "You get two choices to be on their side of a civil war" Player: "Oh cool what are they?" Skyrim: "One is a religiously dogmatic rebellion, annnnd the other is an authoritarian war state." Player: "ohhh....coooolll"

[@ashcalkins9647]

If the storm cloaks weren't racist it would be easier to decide

[@SatanicBarbeque]

"Also the religious guys are super fuckin racist, and the war state will probably end up locking you away in an underground cell for looking sideways at a chicken." "...well fuck."

[@denverarnold6210]

And most people just said "Fuck you both. I'm only gonna bother with either of you if I wanna 100% the achievements. "

[@betabravo3300]

I'd either not care or attack both. :b

[@Kremora]

​@@ashcalkins9647the storm cloaks are no more racist then any other place in tamriel

[@christopherlowe1082]

Hammerfell has been independent since the end of the Great War so the only paths a legion could come would be solitude by sea or Bruma-falkreath by land

[@Practitioner_of_Diogenes]

There's also a road from High Rock, but that'd take more time. But would be way less of an issue for the Empire, as High Rock is still part of the Empire (unlike Morrowind and Hammerfell).

[@louisvictor3473]

@@Practitioner_of_Diogenes That is assuming they don't make any free passage deals with Morrowind or Hammerfell. Given the... let's call "less than warm attitudes" of Ulfric's Stormtroopers regarding anyone who is not a Nord, while their relations with the empire are stable enough, it might be a less hard bargain than one might think. Status quo which they know they can hold their own and there is no ongoing armed conflict vs new problem neighbours who might as well decide to turn into a fight. Gotta be really bad bargaining to fuck that up

[@Practitioner_of_Diogenes]

@@louisvictor3473 Morrowind would honestly be harder to get an agreement with. Not because of the Dunmer, but because of the Argonians. The Argonians of Blackmarch are, at this point in time, full on Xenophobic and would assault any Imperial soldiers that enter the southern parts of Morrowind. Hammerfell last I checked was in a kind of cold civil war between two major families (but that might've been resolved because of fighting the Thalmor involved both houses), so even if they get a deal with one, they might not get a warm welcome from another part of Hammerfell they need to go through.

[@louisvictor3473]

@@Practitioner_of_Diogenes Why would the Empire have to deal with Blackmarsh argonians? There is a good length of border between Morrowwind and Cyrodil, no need to go via blackmarsh first, or anywhere argonians wouldn't be picking a fight with both Morrowwind and Cyrodill if they marshed troops on. As for hammerfell, that is why you make the deal, or deals, first. I am not sure how things really are during Skyrim's time (the civil war proper was before the empire took over, which is obviously before their independence), but assuming that is a risk, we'd need a bit more info. They'd only need a relatively short passage in the east/northweast of Hammerfell into skyrim, so chances are they'd just need to deal with one side.

[@the_sorcerer]

Daggerfall Wins baby

[@speks36]

The Stormcloaks may have the home field advantage and the ability to sway the hearts and minds of the locals but the Empire has more resources as well as the Bretons, Imperials, Orcs, and Dark Elves backing them. Canonically speaking, I think the Imperials ultimately win the war but we won't know until ES6.

[@TheRacoonGhost]

not to mention that around half of skyrim supports the Empire (or atleast prefer them).

[@Rayfireful]

if ES6 take place in a far future from skyrim timeline (like how skyrim events is like years away from oblivion) the whole civil war might be just a footnote

[@bobseltheslimeking]

The Dunmer are independent as well and hold a strong disdain for the Empire since they left them to die during the Oblivion Crisis. There's loads of dialogue about this on Solstheim. If Ulfric were smart he would treat the Grey Quarter better and forge an alliance or at least trade deals with the East

[@Antondencoole]

I can almost guarantee bethesda will cop out with a dragon break again, especially with the death of Alduin

[@js1031]

​@@AntondencooleI prefer the theory of the war not mattering in the grand scheme of things as the Dominion overtakes then all

[@tasonjodd5151]

Before watching the video, here's my bet. It's neither- the thalmor win. Alright so post video: I definitely see your points and I think because of Ulfric's leadership you would be correct. Now, I firmly believe with a better leader I can see multiple strategies that would actually be a hard fought stormcloak victory but namely, the issue is the fact that Ulfric isn't a master tactician. He seems like a decent one but he is no master and due to this, he isn't seeing many of the options. So while at the end of the day the Thalmor will win regardless, the civil war is an imperial victory due to Ulfric's poor ability to plan. If I were Ulfric I would set up troops near dawnstar with a good bit of lumber and a few builders and make some small boats. Have maybe 200 soldiers then go between dawnstar and solitude by night and then wait a day. Once the next night comes they take the east empire trading co and then barricade it and hold out as long as possible to funnel imperial forces toward them and give other stormcloak forces easier holds to take due to the empire funneling people to their capital to reclaim the trading co. This would also slow down their ability to trade externally which puts them on semi even footing for awhile. It isn't a perfect plan but I see it as the only way Ulfric could get a war changing victory without a dragonborn.

[@plutoisarealplanet7407]

also before watching the video, yeah it seems obvious

[@tasonjodd5151]

Just saw that Austin liked this, holy fuck- Great vid, love it. Keep it up.

[@TonberryQueen]

Elven supremacy is the only truth.✌

[@iainoftheizzetleague9850]

My strategy were I Ulfric would be this, but a little better. A small team of Stormcloak Soldiers dressed as legionaries would be all you need to get an assassination team into Castle Dour. As soon as Tullius is dead, the war falls apart. Elisif is repeatedly shown to be rather incompetent, so killing her only major general would make the war much easier. As the empire, I never understood why they bothered with taking every hold. All they need to do is secure Whiterun's chokepoint, to prevent Stormcloaks getting through. Then, eliminate Stormcloak camps quickly and efficiently behind their lines. After that, all you have to do is take Winterhold and maybe Dawnstar using the massive trading fleet to carry troops. After that, agents getting the support of the Argonians/Dunmer in the city, plus a force besieging, and they'll be throwing the gates open for your troops. Riften is completely irrelevent.

[@ForeverTraitor]

It's been ages since I played Skyrim but iirc didn't the Thalmor have Ulfric prisoner after the great war and let him go deliberately because they knew he'd stoke rebellion in Skyrim?

[@p.strobus7569]

“Ask me for anything but time.” It’s nice to see the old quotes standing the test… of time.

[@scytheseven9173]

The thing that most bugged me about Skyrim is how poorly the game sells that the region is in a civil war-you never see battles being fought, and the numbers involved in most actions are tiny.

[@ChrisWoollett]

The other possible ways for the Stormcloaks to get in (beside the front gate) are: The sewer system of Solitude. There are manholes most likely with ladders underneath them) in Solitude so the Stormcloaks could get in that way. There is breakable wall in a jail cell in Castle Dour that the player uses when they are sent to jail there that goes through the sewer. Then there is also an entrance near the East Empire warehouse that is used as infiltration/exfiltration route during the Dark Brotherhood storyline. Finally there is a door one goes through (after going through Temple of the Divines and the Solitude Catacombs to defeat Potema) that has a mountain overlooking a docked ship in Solitude.

[@michaelfryers1914]

Saying this before I actually watch the video Nobody wins the war. Regardless of which side wins, the real winner is the Aldermeri Dominion. The power vacuum of no imperials if the stockcloaks win probably gives the damn elves a stronger grip of Skyrim The imperials winning probably means the Dominion has more support across Tamriel by spinning the storm cloak revolution as a terrorist organization or something similar,

[@greenfrogbad]

Argonians don't care, so long as they stay out out of blackmarsh. Dumner as a rule are cold towards Alltmer. The Bosmeri have their populations purged because they are too acclimated to Nirn, they're seen as degenerates by the Altmer. The only groups that will wholeheartedly eat up that propaganda are Khajiit, most Altmer, an indeterminate, and ever shrinking amount of Bosmer.

[@LewisB3217]

Elves?? 😨🤢🤮 the Redguard will obliterate them, don’t worry

[@somedogsarecops2354]

People forget the point of the rebellion, to allow Skyrim to worship all NINE divines. That's it, they don't want to kill Imperials or kick them out. Most Stormcloaks served with Imperials in the legion against the Dominion.

[@Jaysin412]

So effin happy you're back to shoddycast Austin! It didn't feel right when you were with the "theorists" and honestly, it really didn't feel like they even gave you a chance..... but hey, I could be wrong, I'm just happy you're back to the cast bruv!! Keep up the amazing work!!

[@kdjdkdjdiejejehdirj]

I used to pick the stormcloaks up until last year when i chose the empire for the first time ever lmao

[@dotsinki1096]

im so happy you managed to beat your mental illness brother

[@kdjdkdjdiejejehdirj]

@@dotsinki1096 it felt like that😂😂😂

[@lordofhnajuty]

"Imperial dogs!" "For Ulfric and Skyrim!"😄

[@bananatv3017]

Great video, thanks :)! I do agree with all that however there a few points I´d like to add: - Hammerfell is independent so there won´t be any reinforcements from there (though Cyrodiil and High Rock are bordering Skyrim too, so that info doesn´t change much) - There is one scenario where time is in Ulfics favour and that is the Thalmor. While he wouldn´t think of being one, the Thalmor consider him their most important sleeper agent (as one can read in their embassy) because he weakens the Empire. If the Thalmor manage to halt imperial administration and influence (as they did to try and stop the Helgen execution) they might be able to hinder reinforcements and limit a potential blockade, especially if Ulfric holds out long enough for another Great War. If so and he remains as stubborn and short sighted as a racist enabler like him would be and has been, he could break through Imperial land and effectively besiege Solitude and raid all the rest of Skyrim without fear of imperial reinforcements. That would mean the Thalmor would likely win the war and easily kill him afterwards so I guess even if he wins he still loses😅

[@lbraine2313]

Austin. This is great. I love this. Miss seeing the shoddy cast. Glad to get content whenever your up for sharing it!

[@dhararry7929]

i like this kind of video, where you analyze competing factions to see who comes out on top. i remember you did the same with the new californian republic and ceasar's legion. i hope you make more like these.

[@stefanustanudjaja5029]

Those fort are not stupid You are saying that in the perspective of civil war, and you are right. But those fort are placed in the context of attacks from other place in Tamriel, because none can predict Skyrim is having a civil war. Considering the mountains and tracks, their placement is quite strategic

[@lidular]

I have always assumed that the cannon solution is the season unending, where they just decide on a truce until the second great war. Which could happen right after the dragons gets killed again

[@louisvictor3473]

I believe that truce is temporary, just while the dragon situation is dealth with. I am not even sure if they wait all the way to your return with news of alduin's defeat, rather than restarting somewhere after you fly off on the back of the very dragon that you needed to use whiterun to trap.

[@lidular]

@@louisvictor3473 I totally agree that is supposed to be temporary. But I think that the Aldmari Dominion will strike as soon as the dragons are deal with

[@louisvictor3473]

@@lidular I don't agree they would (imo if they're sitll not ready by the time of Skyrim, they won't be ready for a few decades right after, at least), but completely fair :)

[@lidular]

@@louisvictor3473 i don't think they are waiting for the Aldmari Dominion to be ready but the empire to be the least ready. At the end of Skyrim the empire has suffered from the rebellion, the dragons and have lost the emperor. It seems like a golden opportunity to strike before the Nords recover. But we probably won't know until Tes 6 comes out

[@johndavidtibbetts7320]

12:43 except Ulfric has The Shout, something I'm shocked has not been factored in at all in this video. Just because the dragonborn does not exist does not mean shouts do not exist, Thu'ums are just the result of learning the dragon tongue, a language so inundated with magic that to speak it and know the words leaving your mouth is to alter the world around you. That door is thick, but it's still wood. Combine dragon aspect with unrelenting force or fire breath and that shit is coming down

[@everettjohnson9374]

His shouts have been proven to not be as strong as the tall tales tell, he was captured twice so far and held captive without the shout being a factor. Also Ulfric isn't a dragonborn so he wouldn't know Dragon aspect, he was taught what he knows because he was supposed to be a Grey beard but choose to break his word to join the war...and then get captured till the end of said war...he's truly incompetent

[@johndavidtibbetts7320]

@everettjohnson9374 okay first, unrelated, but those are two poorly used elipses. You end a paragraph with an elipses, you don't put it in the middle. See me after class. Second, it is canon that he blew down the doors of markarth. People saw that shit, you can ask them. Plus he "shouted the high king apart", to quote the game. That means he has all three phrases of unrelenting force, which means he doesn't just blast things away, he disintegrates them.

[@silverswordguy4191]

If you're trying to talk about the road that leads to hammerfell, don't forget that hammerfell actually successfully pushed off the Alsmeri Dominion and seceded from the empire.

[@jiovanirivera852]

Great to see a new video by you! I think Ulfric will be fighting an uphill battle but because he has the thu'um, he has at least a chance to win. I haven't watched the video yet, but I imagine that the home field advantage, animosity from the average skyrim inhabit (imo), and the possibility of losses outweighing the gains for the empire would help Ulfric.

[@joemcneil6602]

Dang man i totally forgot about your channel. Iv been subscribed for years. One of your videos just popped up on my feed, and so many happy memories came to mind , of listening to your lore series and storytelling videos. It was during a really tough time in my life, and those videos took me away for periods of time. Glad youre still creating content!

[@acendantoverlord5737]

I think much of what’s discussed in the video basically helps explain why the civil war is in a deadlock until the Dragonborn chooses a side and leads every single assault against the opposing side. Making what should be impossible sieges into one sided slaughters.

[@blecis74]

Very good video Austin. I just want to point out somethings that may give the Stormcloaks more time during the war (whether it would make a difference or not I don’t know) 1. Hammerfell is not part of The Empire, so no reinforcements will be coming from there. 2. Pale Pass - A crossing point between Skyrim and Cyrodiil is blocked by an avalanche preventing reinforcements from coming from Cyrodiil. 3. Ulfric knows the Thu’um including the shout Unrelenting Force making the gates of Whiterun and Solitude a none issue. 4. Dawnstar is also a port city controlled by the Stormcloaks, which would allow them to potentially intercept Imperial fleets and slow them down on their way to Windhelm.

[@helwrecht1637]

The empire, you can find a note that says a legion is coming to wipe out the stormcloaks. It’s Bethesda normal MO of making sure there is a canon result

[@muayboran6111]

From a story perspective, it might be more interesting to see the falling empire and the Thalmor takeover in the next game. Stormcloak's victory could set up a more compelling story

[@Vert_GreenHeart]

I doubt any kind of story can be properly written by Bethesda and the joker Emil.

[@XxNightmare128xX]

I used to think Ulfric had a real chance when I first played but I've realized whatever unrest he can create, even if he unified all of Skyrim, he doesn't have a chance. Even with how wounded the Empire is, the white-gold concordat almost ensures the Aldmiri Dominion will reinforce the Empire if it means wiping out a rebellion. After all, they just effectively beat the Empire. The Thalmor mostly do scouting but if their scouts don't make it back, they're going to send a bigger force to figure out why their men are dying in the land of their reluctant allies and if said allies are violating the concordat.

[@nilfgaardnumber1forever]

Implying the Empire would stay idle during that expedition. An invasion of Skyrim would be an idiotic move, as it would give the Empire a window to attack. And no way would the Empire let them pass though Cyrodiil to get to Skyrim. Thats pretty much saying to the world "Im this countries bitch."

[@somedogsarecops2354]

Literally all the Stormcloaks want is the ability to worship Talos without being kidnapped or murdered, this whole thing is the Empire's fault for giving into ridiculous Thalmor demands instead of standing by their literal brothers. Supporting the Empire is actual boot licking.

[@thewolf8660]

11:30 Dawnstar: "Am I a joke to you?"

[@atlasprime6193]

I definitely prefer the Imperial Legion. Story-wise it makes the most sense, especially when there’s enough hint to show that the Empire is preparing a secret countermeasure against the Thalmor, which is why the Thalmor may have likely orchestrated the Civil War to distract the Imperial to buy themselves time. I always respected the Nords that joined the Imperial than the Stormcloak, whereas the Stormcloak feels fanatic, the Nords in Imperial held more rationality. They didn’t join because they’re loyal, they joined because the know the endgame. And with the emergence of the Dragonborn, the embodiment of Akatosh and the Empire? Having him join the Imperial is the spark of the next Great War that the Thalmor will certainly lose. I hope Elder Scroll 6 makes it canonical, however far into the future of the timeline, that the Thalmor and the Summerset Isle were defeated. They really need to be humbled and have their arrogance brought down.

[@somedogsarecops2354]

The secret countermeasure is pure cope. The Stormcloak rebellion didn't happen because the Nords were bored, the Empire banned the worship of Talos which is a huge deal. In the Elder Scrolls universe Gods are real beings, and religion is a serious matter. Gods are weakened if there is no one worshipping them and they cannot watch over their people if they are weak. On top of that, the Thalmor were allowed to carry out kidnappings and murders when the Nords chose to worship anyways.

[@dutchpatriot17]

​@@somedogsarecops2354This is false. Gods do not gain power based on worship and the Justiciars were only allowed in after Ulfric's collaboration with them. Prior to that point everyone still had their own shrines to Talos.

[@Pintman45]

Why exactly can't the Empire continue developing it's countermeasure while allowing Skyrim to have it's independence? The rebellion is absolutely justified imo due to the rampant sanctioned kidnapping of Skyrim citizens who are tortured and forced to "confess" regardless of whether they are actually worshipping Talos or not. How could anyone be expected to live under such cruelty? Sure, Ulfric could've been a bit more subtle and sought a more peaceful or clever initial approach but after all he'd been through already, what happened was inevitable. The Thalmor would've likely cracked down on Skyrim eventually anyway, the game makes it pretty clear that they absolutely HATE Nords.

[@Unity-hk1bf]

Imo, his best bet is to take Morthal and march his men north, set up seige on the other side of the karth, and take out the blue palace and the enemy queen by destroying that stupid rock outcropping that somehow sustains an entire castle

[@taken_over3416]

I think Ulfric’s characterization in the game is interesting. If he knew he were doomed and a free Skyrim would never exist, I think he would continue to fight. It would be left up to the player to see this a principled stand a la the last samurai or a man obsessed with his own image and power, willing to sacrifice the future for his own vainglory.

[@galacticknight55544]

No, he fights because he realizes that Skyrim needs to rid itself of Thalmor influence to be able to save itself and humanity from enslavement by the elves, and that means breaking free from the Empire that has sadly fallen under the Thalmor's control. Once free, Skyrim will be able to regain its former glory without the Dominion's interference and ally with Hammerfell along with any other human kingdoms that are willing to help fight the Dominion.

[@everettjohnson9374]

@@galacticknight55544 except the thalmor are only there BECAUSE of him and his actions. He fights for no one but himself, he was captured by the Dominion during the war and holds a chip on his shoulder, he feels like he needs to prove himself but instead of thinking he acts like a hammer. Instead of talking to his king and have a united sjyrim leave the Empire he kills him, Ulfric is a useful tool that should be used by those with intelligence because he is lacking as a a leader.

[@galacticknight55544]

@@everettjohnson9374 Torygg was a weak king and couldn't lead a free Skyrim. He couldn't even protect himself. The Thalmor were in Skyrim before Ulfric started his rebellion, and if you think it's bad in Skyrim, I assure you they have an even bigger presence and influence in Cyrodiil because that's the Imperial capitol. That's why the Imperial government is no longer capable of fighting the Thalmor.

[@DatAlien]

​@@galacticknight55544It's pretty clear from the dossiers in the embassies that the only ones profiting from the civil war are the Thalmor. The war weakened the Empire, but the Thalmor also lost access to the deadric support they used in the war, so a unified empire could possibly take on the Thalmor.

[@galacticknight55544]

@@DatAlien The dossiers also say that the Stormcloaks shouldn't be allowed to win the war. The exact words are "a Stormcloak victory is to be avoided." I think it's because they realize than an independent Skyrim would pose a threat to them.

[@worldman3218]

The rebellion was almost crushed and their leader was almost executed by a band of local militia at the start of the game. The only reason the Stormcloaks didn't lose immediately is because the thalmor are providing them financial aid and are actively sabotaging Imperial actions in the region. Hell, the reason why Tulius was so adamant about executing Ulfric immediately rather than have a trial is because he didn't want the Thalmor to pull tricks to help Ulfric escape.

[@Zerum69]

The big thing to keep in mind is neutral magical threats that weaken the Empire's strenght, without intervention the dangerous wolf queen potema will get resurrected and weaken solutide significantly, vampires are also on solitude's coast meaning any vampire raids will hit mostly them, the silver blood's corruption, and reach men as well as the cannibal cult also are a treat to solitude's reinforcements and supply situation And of course lets not forget the biggest one, Dragons burning and freezing farm land constantly will also weaken the empire's situation, the Stormcloacks as you said dont own that much farm so by default they'll get targeted way less Stormcloacks also have corruption issues from part of Maven and the thieves guild, but without intervention the Thieves guild will disappear from history giving a slight morale boost to the Stormcloack's side, cleaning a centuries old mafia institution tends to do that, they also have access to the only ones capable of fighting vampires on equal ground so vampire raids will be way less dangerous in the Stormcloack's side Only real magical threat for the Stormcloack's is the return of Miraak which shouldn't even affect them as Miraak wouldn't touch the mainland if it wasn't for the dragonborn itself appearing So yeah the Stormcloacks have way better chances of winning or at least reaching a stable stalemate when you consider the magical side of this world

[@daddykarlmarx6183]

See at the end of the day it doesn't really matter, regardless of who wins both parties will suffer loses and instability, and that's when the thalmor are gonna make their move

[@Furonanator139]

The legion: 90% causality rate The Empire: Victory

[@dutchpatriot17]

There is zero reason to believe they'd suffer anywhere near that many casualties.

[@somedogsarecops2354]

@@dutchpatriot17 They absolutely would, the Empire would most likely be taking the offensive especially with a warhawk General like Tullius. If they decide to go all in that means a siege of Windhelm which would be costly. Remember, most Stormcloaks are ex Imperial Legion veterans. So Legion deaths cost the Empire and so do Stormcloak deaths. The real war is with the Dominion.

[@dutchpatriot17]

@@somedogsarecops2354 The Stormcloaks are already getting massacred by what is largely Imperial militia - they are not of the same quality.

[@unfoldingspace8]

One thing I also think is important to consider is that the entire civil war was kinda ‘orchestrated’ by the Thalmor and Aldmeri Dominion. You can even find evidence of this in the game. They want the war to continue with neither side winning. Elenwen at the beginning even tried to use her ‘authority’ to take Ulfric but Tulius knows that they, the Empire, is in a Cold War with the Thalmor, which was also why he chose to go to Helgen for the execution rather than Cyrodill, as it would have been very likely that the elves would have staged something to allow Ulfric to escape. If it weren’t for Alduin, Elenwen even knew they might have to do something drastic to free Ulfric. Now for this part I can’t remember if it’s confirmed or not, but I believe (and it also wouldn’t surprise me if it true) that the Thalmor does secretly help and support/supply the Stormcloaks, so as to even the playing field without giving them the advantage. As said, they want the civil war to keep going. There is also, as I have also seen others point out, the letter found at the fort near the border of Cyrodill, that talks about a large garrison of troops just by the pale pass, I believe waiting to come in due to, I think like the path is somewhat blocked or something. Which I think, even with the elves’ help, once that garrison breaks through and arrives, Ulfric and the Stormcloaks are done for. There is of course also kind of a third alternative, that is never explored in-game. But the aforementioned missives found in the Thalmor Embassy, could, in theory, be used to show both Tullius, along with Rikke, and Ulfric what is going on. Since it even talks about how they fuelled Ulfric’s hatred and in a way kinda brainwashed him. But using the missives and knowledge, and all, to create a more stable truce, perhaps even temporarily alliance. Both of their enemies are the Thalmor, and Ulfric and Galmar even talk about laying siege to Summerset. The question is perhaps just more how patient is Ulfric and how long is he willing to wait and let himself bend the knee slightly for the/their collective greater good in the future. I can definitely see Elder Scrolls 6 taking place either during or just up to the Second Great War, perhaps even being one of the main conflicts of the game, with it breaking out somewhere along the main quest of the game, or already in full swing by the time we come in as the player character of the game.

[@Fox906090]

Wouldn't the murder on the emperor in the dark brotherhood questline cause major internal conflicts? Even though it might not be significant for the civil war's outcome, it should be taken into account ^^

[@greenfrogbad]

Yeah he casually glossed over the chaos the Empire would go through with a succession crisis as well as losing one of their best generals.

[@Warden409]

You have to remember that this particular emperor was consider incredibly weak and not well liked. Honestly it may have solidified the Legions resolve as it would have been incredibly easy to blame it on the Stormcloaks. I am also sure that many of the "honorable" nords would have to decide if that is gonna have an effect on their chances for Sovngarde.

[@Digitize27]

Without the Dragonborn to take up the mantle of Listener, the Dark Brotherhood is cut off from its true leadership and is under Astrid's questionable direction. It's only thanks to the Night Mother you even get the mission to assassinate the Emperor.

[@SomersKnightSky]

There would huge ramification if the emperor was assassinated in Skyrim but most if not all outcomes would just spell doom for the rebellion even if the stormcloak were not involved in said plot. It would cause the empire to put more than the minimum into the war effort allowing for a huge increase in imperial forces that would easily dwarf the stormcloak forces. That is also under the impression that the Dark brotherhood would succeed. They could but we have no way of knowing if it would happen because the dragonborn was involved in the revitalization of the Dark brotherhood. Any way you take it, it just not a good thing for the emperor to die while in Skyrim. Killing him outside of Skyrim though would be way better cause then it could cause more of a split within the Imperium allowing the stormcloaks to have more of a shot at winning but it essentially will still be the same as before with them on the losing end.

[@nilfgaardnumber1forever]

Considering that the Elves cant rebuild their numbers like Humans, and the Thalmors weakening grip on Elsweyr and Valenwood,its not hard to believe that they have meddled into the imperial government just for the purpose of destabilizing the Empire in case of the emperors death. Remember that they wiped out all the Blades agents before the Great war, practically makong the empire blind to their plans.

[@bonnieminter8897]

I haven't played in almost a year, so I might not know the correct layout of the map, other than what's shown in the video. If we assume that everything the Dragonborn can do, other than use the Thoom, all of the NPC's can learn,(e.g. Thief, Warrior, and maybe Mage skills) then Sneak is going to be the Stormcloaks greatest ally in this fight. There has to be a part of the river, either farther down/up stream of the bridge where they can cross one at a time, or make a makeshift bridge. With the fort, you can send in an elite squad of stealth archers, my go-to combat form, and kill everyone without much, if any, resistance. Or you could hire a local group of bandits to distract them in the front while you attack from the rear. Although with the latter you will still have heavy casualties, not as bad as a full frontal assault, but still high, as well as the risk of them betraying you. Solitude has a sewer network, you can tell by the manholes dotted throughout the city. The sewage network will empty out into the river or close to shore. This passage will either be barred or locked. If the latter, you can get in contact with the thieves guild to either get you the key or pick the lock. The thieves guild might be in shambles when the Dragonborn arrives, but according to Vex they are still taking jobs, so it shouldn't be too hard to convince them. If it's barred, you'll need the help of a powerful mage, perhaps from the college, with very strong fire/ice magic to melt or freeze the bars. After that, it's simply a matter of going in at night, finding the entrance closest to the main gate, and opening the doors for the rest of the Stormcloaks.

[@torotteson]

Here's the thing: I have to believe the Stormcloaks has a secret edge that would let them take Solitude: The reason levitation magic (which lets you fly) dissapeared between Morrowind and Oblivion was that it was outlawed by the empire... The stormcloaks if separating from the empire would be under no such restriction. What are walls to an army that can fly??

[@ShoddyCast]

There better be levitation in TES6 I stg

[@Warden409]

With what mages? Then you must contend with the nord anti-magic stance, and then you will have to contend with the outcry of the soldiers who believe they lost their chance for Sovngarde for dishonorable tactics. Result is the same I think.

[@Rayfireful]

that's a great idea, if only the nords embrace magic and the college

[@LewisB3217]

Sadly, we don’t see any stormcloak mages 😂 they’re doomed

[@torotteson]

@@ShoddyCast Especially coming out of Starfield where they're giving everyone a jetpack not wanting to deal with levitation is not an acceptable excuse anymore 😂

[@saychaysarchive7065]

I've never approached this question tactically before in part because I had never thought about it without the Dragonborn being a factor. Really enjoyed this!

[@YourPalKindred]

Something we should also consider, if we are taking lore into account, General Tullius has a reputation of being a very effective leader and has put down similar rebellions before, so he's experienced fighting against the guerilla tactics Stormcloaks would employ

[@jamesmccloud7535]

He ambushed Ulfric and almost ended the war at the start of the game after only being there for a short while 😂

[@tnttiger3079]

Hammerfell isn't even part of the Empire any more, man. The Pale Pass is blockaded (per a note left in Fort Neugrad). The Empire is focussing most of their forces on the border with the Dominion. Dawnstar is as much a port as Windhelm is, and trade passes through the Dunmeth pass and the Riftgate (as evidenced by the Sunder & Wraithguard creation). That's even assuming the Empire could MAKE a blockade- They no longer have port access in Morrowind, so they'd have to send ships across the Sea of Ghosts, where they'd be easy pickings for Stormcloak fleets. It is not at all as clear-cut as ye make it out.

[@williamtilson3888]

The only issue is Hammerfell, its neutral if not leaning away from the Empire, Storm Cloaks could go through Ivarstead to take Falkreath by surprise a relatively weak hold within a fertile area allowing them to resupply, in addition allowing them the road into Hammerfell, which in an independent Skyrim would be one of their only allies being also independent from the Empire. With the road open Ulfric now has a way to purches consitent supplies and hire mercenaries or even officially gain support from Hammerfell in exchange for money or an agreement to come to each overs aid if the empire or aldmeri attacks. Even if the Storm Claoks didn' get official support the supply line and mercs would still be of use and bolster his army

[@ShoddyCast]

Good analysis!

[@jacobhurrell7700]

I'm so happy I found you again man I love listening to you whilst I'm studying/gaming im so excited i feel like in 14 again and its 2013 and were about to start screaming about how utterly absurd the game logic is you make a difference to my days as someone who's been in the dark i hope your doing great my dude :)

[@Hollyclown]

The only reason the Rebellion lasted as long as it did was only because a weakened Empire and the Thalmor wanted it to. My character never joined any side only more concerned about the Dragons, Vampires, and a World Domination Obsessed Dragonborn.

[@Practitioner_of_Diogenes]

You played more into the Thalmor than either side did. The Thalmor want the rebellion to last as long as possible, so not ending it is playing into their plans.

[@LewisB3217]

@@Practitioner_of_Diogenes and therefore, empire good, cause elves bad 💯

[@Hollyclown]

@@Practitioner_of_Diogenes *proceeds building house*

[@mcmitch1912]

SHODDYYYYYYY Do the 3 Banners War from ESO. Would love to see it!

[@johndavidtibbetts7320]

3:18 important to point out: Balgruuf only sides with the empire because he believes Ulfric is not a man of honor. And he believes this thanks to carefully placed lies by Tullius about Ulfric's troop movements. If it weren't for that, he might've thrown his support behind Ulfric

[@LewisB3217]

I doubt he’d ever support him, they had a rivalry since they were kids, that plus Balgruuf deciding Ulric wasn’t honorable (he wasn’t, having killed the high king in a duel with a shout, aka cheating) sealed the deal, plus Balgruuf seeing the dragons

[@johndavidtibbetts7320]

@Reklawt sure. My rate starts at 0.25 a word, I accept money through PayPal 😜

[@wastelesslearning1245]

if There is no Dragon Born, Alduin kills everyone. If there is no Alduen, Ulfric Dies by Default since he doesn’t escape? That’s my first conclusion. So… ignoring that dragon break. Winterhold wizards (sieges) , The forsworn, Vokahar vampires (assuming they want to be rid of the empire if some more independence), ware wolf companions, Dark Brotherhood are all X factors Ulfric needs to stand a chance. Otherwise he crumbles from within or doesn’t have the umf to make any headway and hold it. This is all assuming Thuum plays no part since Ulfric’s is insignificant compared to mass spell use and doesn’t have the time to teach more thuum stormcloaks,. and the grey beards being pacifists. Then there are the artifacts. Could Ulfic if he has access to winter hold, get a elder-scroll? Get his pawns to Read ahead in fate? What about a dwemmer knowledge cube or atherium forge in riften? Sky forge steel? A ton of harming and paralysis potions from the marshes? the transmutate iron to gold spell is in white run hold which could make funding a non-issue. Sarthal infinite magic and “remake the world” powers? Infinite Money, Foresight, Superior weapons and armor materials, and alchemical effects are all on the table if Ulfric can find them (if the empire finds them then he looses even harder then before). Odds non 0 but not likely for Stormcloaks. Notably though, probable outcomes are rarely used in story telling because they are boring. See first conclusion.

[@jaredrobinson7071]

Empire tried to cut my head off, I apparently hold a grudge, cause I have not ever once sided with the empire. I just can't bring myself to do it.

[@LordGingivitus66]

If you wanna get pedantic about it, it was technically just one snotty bitch that put you to the block and you can kill her on your way out. Leaves you and the legion square so far as death is concerned, but maybe that's just my stance.

[@bryanlinsmeyer3521]

They do apologize for it tbf And it always seemed more like it was just the one person who ordered it being a dick and not caring about who was or wasn't part of the rebellion in the group than it was the Empire itself wanting you dead

[@LewisB3217]

Petty 😂

[@somedogsarecops2354]

@@LordGingivitus66 Actually that's not true, they were killing the player and the horse thief even though they knew they were innocent so there would be no witnesses.

[@LordGingivitus66]

@@somedogsarecops2354 Nah man, the horse thief was, well, a thief and he ran away from the authorities while a high value prisoner was on the premises. They weren't going to risk assets to just to chase him down for a trial. Plus they kinda want everyone in Skyrim to know that they killed Ulfric, he's the only thing keeping the insurrection going so with him gone the war's over.

[@leifmcewen-updegrove1893]

I really love all the analysis, the only thing I’d love to point out is that as of the time of Skyrim, Hammerfell is an independent province and actually harbors lots of resentment towards the Empire- so the only way the legion can send troops to Skyrim is by ship by Solitude or marching up the Pale Pass which is very dangerous but IS under the control of the Jarl of Falkreath who is loyal to the empire. The other thing is that even if the Empire blockades the river leading into the Windhelm- Riften, the next most powerful eastern hold has a well maintained pass and border into Morrowind meaning they could trade with the Great Houses there to get past the Imperial embargo.

[@kingnaga619]

Been waiting for this since The Legion Vs NCR video. LOVE these videos.

[@insertfunnyhandlehere]

This is why I always choose the empire I don't agree with everything they do but in the long run everyone is better for it and you even see evidence of the Empire turning a blind eye to Talos worship the Dragonborn could do a lot better for Skyrim by using his position to advocate for talos Worship in the Empire thereby achieving the goals of the Stormcloaks through peace and understanding rather than war and domination. Honestly I think it would have been a really awesome secret somewhat peaceful solution as a quest line in skyrim. Ulfric would still have to die based off his character (he's definitely doing this for less then altruistic reasons) after the empire re-negotiates the Accords with Skyrim getting everyone but Ulfric to sign on with all of Skyrim uniting too takedown Ulfric. Could even lead to the Dragonborn proving they are the true king of Skyrim and most importantly finally allowing you too keep the Dragon Crown lol.

[@537monster]

It feels weird that the war is east vs west instead of North vs South. You’d think that those who benefit most from being in the empire (AKA: Markarth, Falkreathe, Riften, and maybe Whiterun) would be the ones fight off the Northern kingdoms who benefit the least.

[@LandStrider23]

Yea skyrim writing or narrative isn't atrocious. But isn't likable imho. Lots of stuff don't make sense

[@goatslayer3160]

Couldn't Ulfric just shout his way through Dragon bridge and the Solitude gate? Shouts are much more powerful in lore than in game, they don't even have a cool down.

[@TheT7770ify]

He'd likely knock down the bridge doing so

[@goatslayer3160]

@@TheT7770ify Pretty sure he also knows the disarm shout, he could disarm the defenders and have his men charge through.

[@screamingcactus1753]

If Ulfric were to step onto the front lines and start using his thu'um he would draw the attention of every Imperial archer in the area. There would be a concerted effort to kill him specifically as soon as he made his presence known, and as was mentioned in the video, if he dies, there is no more rebellion. Even with his voice, he's still more important as a leader and figure head than as a warrior

[@maromania7]

Shouts are more powerful and could definitely help on the Dragon Bridge, but they're a lot more difficult for a relative novice like Ulfric, who doesn't have the power of an actual dragonborn. Remember, we start the game with him bound and gagged, only escaping execution because of Alduin. He can be taken down by a relatively small force, and if he takes a stray arrow it's game over. Plus the army they're barely surviving against now? Dialogue mentions these aren't actual imperial forces, it's a slapped-together army while they wait for an actual veteran legion to show up. It's fall, the mountain passes are blocked up. They just have to survive a seige. During winter, where even commoners already have enough food stored up to last until spring. The rebellion only lasted this long because of secret Thalmor assistance.

[@goatslayer3160]

@@maromania7 And in that same intro the empire had his hands tied in front, meaning that the only thing stopping him from reaching up and removing the gag, was plot. The entire intro made very little sense, the DB was supposedly trying to cross the border but walked into the ambush which happened outside Darkwater crossing, but Darkwater crossing isn't near a border. And if Ulfric is so important, why not "remove him from the census" first? I get the first guy volunteered, but then the captain chose the player instead of Ulfric to go next. The intro was designed to introduce the player to key characters and plot points, not to make sense. Realistically speaking it'd be much harder to deafeat a man who could shout, and if I could shout, I'd at the very least try to teach my generals how, even if it took years. Regarding waiting for the "real" legion to show up, people love mentioning this point, but don't you think the empire would have sent a "real" legion to retake Hammerfell after they lost to them? And Hammerfell is still around and independent, meaning that second veteran legion failed. When that legion marches to Skyrim, they wouldn't be used to the climate, putting them at a disadvantage. And nothing would be stopping Ulfric from shouting at the mountain while they're travelling through the pass, causing an avalanche and defeating or at very least severely damaging that legion, and cutting them off from Cyrodil.

[@ekat-zc6ws]

One factor you didn't take into account is the notes we find in the Thalmor Embassy that indicate that the Thalmor are willing to send carefully managed aid to the Stormcloaks in order to prevent their rebellion from sputtering out while also not providing enough for them to actually win. Maybe this allows the Stormcloaks to keep feeding themselves and the war becomes a stalemate? Or maybe the Empire discovers this fact and that triggers the heavily hinted at second war between the Dominion and the Empire? How would Ulfric react to such an event? He hates the Empire but he hates the Thalmor even more. The Thalmor would undoubtedly struggle to supply the Rebels if a new war broke out, but the Empire likely wouldn't be able to commit as many troops to stopping it.

[@Snacker6]

The one thing that I do think that you missed, and the one thing that even the game doesn't remember a lot of the time, is that Ulfric IS a siege weapon. He has the thu'um. He literally shouted the old king of Skyrim apart. He could break the doors of Solitude himself. The empire also has less resources to call on then you seem to think, as they are just coming off of a war that they lost. The troops that they sent are likely all they could send That said, it doesn't change much. This is much more of an uphill battle for Ulfric then it is for the empire, and neither has the tactical ability to change much, so the empire will likely still win in the end

[@screamingcactus1753]

It's confirmed in the game that the Empire has a full legion waiting in Bruma for a rockslide to be cleared from the mountain pass leading into Skyrim. The Empire doesn't need to win with its current forces, they just need to hold out for a few months. A stalemate is just as good as a victory for them.

[@LewisB3217]

His thum doesn’t mean he’ll defeat legion and legion, which he won’t, he can’t win in any circumstance, tries to fight? Loses to attrition, tries guerrilla tactics? Loads to attrition, etc

[@bishopofeternity48]

Don't forget battlemages. Nord's may disdain magic but the empire has no problem employing walking demigods. Increase morale, heal wounds, summon disposable soldiers, easily maneuverable artillery, etc.

[@matthewadamsteil]

There are some additional factors that aren't considered that could heavily sway the war one way or the other: 1) Dissidents. Most everywhere has local opposing viewpoints. For Ulfric to win the war he would need to recognize this and execute a strategy accordingly. Because the stormcloaks know the terrain so well they could strike south from dawnstar on the breadbasket of white run hold. Both generals are up against time and the war weariness of their own people. 2)The college of winterhold. With the college being firmly in stormcloak territory having an extra set of battlemages could be a big boon. They would likely try to stay neutral but a siege of the college would be in the favor of the stormcloaks. Savos seeing this could be swayed (maybe for the price of Ulfric giving Dark Elves equal rights). 3) For a presumptive siege of Solitude the is the additional doorway into solitude past the docks (where you escape to after posing as the Gourmet). If a small force could sneak in through there You would have a second entrance and the defending force would be setback to the blue palace. From there Ulfric would then have a the main gate as a defence for the relief force that would come. Either defending side would likely collapse the entrance once they knew about it.

[@TheRoguePrince0]

Ah yes, the endless debate between the imperial Thalmor dogs, and the mighty stormcloaks who fight for their freedom from a dying empire and its Thalmor masters.

[@dutchpatriot17]

Remember when Ulfric's collaboration with the Thalmor caused the enforcement of the Talos ban? Remember when the civil war that Ulfric started because he lusts for the throne harms the enemies of the Dominion? Try again, the Thalmor state an Imperial victory harms them, not a Stormcloak one.

[@Nigrutinn]

maybe you should stop fighting and start wining, but thats unlikely to happen

[@fatpenguin0089]

Something to add is, Ulfric doesn't need to be on the offensive, the empire is already incredibly unwiling to commit a large force to skyrim due to the threat of a second Great war, Ulfric can use guerilla tactics slowly wearing down the empire in a time when they really need to preserve everything they can get, also about the blockade, The empire would need to blockade more than just the White river because otherwise supplies could be bought at Dawnstar or Winterfell and transported to Windhelm by land, also they have food from the fishing industry at Riften, the empire would definitely want their navy stationed at Niben and the gold coast (positioned to quickly blockade ships from the Sumerset isles in the event of war) rather than dedicated a large part of it to blockading a significant part of the north coast of skyrim. In conclusion, Stormcloaks could win if they make Skyrim into the empire's Vietnam

[@zu-tangclan8113]

Empire is for bootlickers, Skyrim is for the Nords!

[@Nigrutinn]

this is why you rule no land other than skyrim, and soon you will rule nothing

[@SomeGuy1117]

I think an important note is the Thalmor. In the embassy they straight up say they released Ulfric deliberately from their capture of him (they caught and tortured him) to start his rebellion and weaken the Empire with the goal of keeping them in conflict with each other going as far as to say they would covertly support one side over the other to keep the stalemate going. In this case I could imagine the Stormcloaks being secretly backed by the Thalmor. Not directly ofcourse, but paying off traders and pirates to send supplies to the Stormcloaks basically subsidizing their rebellion. Since the Imperials are busy paying a massive tax to the Thalmor as per their agreement then all or a portion of that money would probably be used to pay for such a project. This would be the only reason the Stormcloaks can really hold a draw against the better funded and equipped Legion.

[@DylanBalls]

First and gay

[@Elastas]

Good for you 🏳️‍🌈

[@JikuAraiguma]

I remember talking about this on Reddit. The idea I came to was that a number of actions that the Dragonborn does over the course of the game undermine the empire and the dominion, key among them being the assassination of the emperor, disrupting the aldmeri spy’s work outside of the dragon priest mask quest, chewing through the thalmor embassy in the main quest, and dealing with Ancano and his goon in the college quest.

[@dutchpatriot17]

The death of Mede would be pinned on the Stormcloaks and rally Cyrodiil.

[@anvos658]

@@dutchpatriot17 More likely it doesn't, since there isn't a clear Imperial succession any more, with the last of Tiber Septim's line a statue or dead, meaning every time they have to figure out who the next emperor is there is a risk of a civil war over the throne.

[@dutchpatriot17]

@@anvos658 The Medes are a dynasty, there isn't a civil discourse everytime the Emperor dies. That has happened more often under the Septims.

[@aetholus2982]

In a fight like this Ulfric is likely well aware of his time crunch. And as a result willing to take risks. Without the ability to quickly end the blockade without escalation Ulfric’s best bet is to go all in on taking the capital. He can’t match the Empire in the field and the longer the war lasts the more likely defeat becomes. So two options present themselves. A decapitating coup or a surprise assault from the weakest point in the capitol’s defenses, the sea. The decapitation strike necessary to create the chaos Ulfric would need to sweep over disorganized bands if resistance would have to be massive, swift, brutal, and complete. He can’t risk a single competent commander or charismatic rallying point to survive. And it must all occur before anyone realizes it’s happening. This means it will cost time. Which Ulfric doesn’t have, at least not yet. So his best bet is to take out the Imperial navy at the capitol or slip in under their noses. To do this would require either sneaking an army across the whole of Skyrim or a long and dangerous sprint of many small boats across the Sea of Chaos timed to arrive at least 4 hours after nightfall. Upon arrival Ulfric’s objective is simple. Secure the capitol before anyone realizes he’s arrived. This technique has been used many times across history but it has always required luck. Ulfric can’t count on luck. So while his troops secure the capitol he and a small band of soldiers must prevent the empire from repeating his tactic and deal a blow large enough that the Empire gives up on Skyrim as too costly. This is where he can rely on the one thing that let him rebel. His shout. The funny thing about navies are they are expensive. Not even just to maintain. But they cost more time to build than most nations can afford. Beyond that large ships, like the Empire seems to favor, are weak to devastating attacks by small fast ships. In the real world this method of attack was only capable of being realized after the invention of reliable explosives. But Ulfric has his shout. This would allow a fast moving long boat to sink a much larger vessel with considerably less risk than would otherwise be possible. Using this Ulfric needs to cripple the Imperial navy near the capitol while his troops secure the capitol. This loss of literally decades if investment will likely secure the Empires’s withdrawal if Ulfric can hold the capitol. For his men to do that their primary tool is not silence like most media would make you think but speed. They need to enter and gain control of the keep before the enemy realizes they are there. And to do so in large enough numbers to hold it in the event of a counter siege. Their primary objectives are the gatehouse, the Queen Lady, and the command structure of the legion. Once two of three of those objectives are accomplished, one of which must be the gatehouse, they have to seal themselves inside. The keep likely contains at least 4 months worth and of food in the larder just incase of a siege. If they can manage this they have the necessary tools to force the Empire to either take them seriously or abandon Skyrim entirely.

[@kaylinhendrich4673]

FUCK. YES!! I was a huge fan of the Legion vs NCR video, and I was so stoked to see the notification for this video go up! Hope this king of video becomes more regular! You the best Austin!

[@anvos658]

You kind of forgot to account for Morrowind is also in the camp of flipping the Empire and Thalmer the bird for not helping them, when Red Mountain erupted and the meteor fell, thus an Imperial decree would be ignored. Even more so that without aid House Hallau (the imperial sympathizers) lost prominence to House Redoran (the warrior house). Meanwhile Skyrim actually took in dunmer, and the two peoples have a history of cooperation against the imperials and thalmer. Then add in that in the west the Redguard are already in open rebellion against the Empire and Thalmer, which while they couldn't really trade, limits the ability of the Empire and Thalmer to sustain a blockade of eastern Skyrim. Your also forgetting the Volcano is on the island of Vvanrdenfel, not the mainland of Morrowind, meaning there are still large parts of Morrowind functional. You kind of described why Ulfric wouldn't focus on Solitude, but instead focus on claiming the land to bring other nords into the Stormcloaks, increasing his own legitimacy, supplies, and winning more popular support for notion of an independent Skyrim. The Empire and the Thalmer, have the key weakness that this isn't their people their fighting over, but nords. The actual answer is the Stormcloaks win, but not independently, but because they keep the war a stalemate and then the Dunmer and Redguard send reinforcements, so they can forge a new Ebonheart Pact, to support each other's bids to be free of Imperial and Thalmer influence. Let alone as the Imperials and Thalmer try and clamp down on their own people with Stormcloak sympathies, it would just push more nords to siding with the Stormcloaks.

[@ant8ank2]

This really drives home ,how much a force of nature the Dragonborn is, that if they side with the Stormcloaks they are the ONE differential factor that leads to them winning the war

[@maxherman3884]

I love this analysis, however, there is one factor you haven't considered: The foresworn. The imperials don't actually hold markarth, they might hold the city, but everything outside its dwemmer walls is effectively foresworn territory. The province is essentially in open rebellion. They're such a problem that Ulfric actually fought them back when he was an Imperial commander. So the imperials would have to leave a garrison in Markarth to defend it from the foresworn, and dedicate resources to policing it. Secondly, the game actually says that all the mountain-passes south are blocked by snow (this is the stated reason why the Dragonborn can't leave Skyrim) but I believe Tullius actually says that it's blocking reinforcement legions from getting into Skyrim. In reality, it seems like Ulfric has at least a few months until any reinforcements whatsoever can get into Skyrim. Is he still boned? Yes. It's unlikely his rebel force will be able to push the imperials out of Skyrim. However, the Imperials are also boned, as they have to fight a war on 2 fronts. Also, Skyrim was one of the legion's main recruiting grounds, now that it's in open rebellion, the legion is going to have to put more resources into making sure that the Nords it's recruiting from the province aren't actually rebel sympathizers. Given that the legion was decimated by its recent war with the Aldmeri Dominion, the Empire may not have the men necessary to push against the threats on its northern border. Finally, the dark elf refugees in Winterhold and the fact the Dragonborn can take a boat to Solstime suggest that while trade embargoes might be in place, the imperial naval presence in the sea of ghosts is light. This is likely due to the fact that the sea of ghosts is treacherous at the best of times, making it effectively impossible for a navy to blockade. However, the sea of ghost's infamy as a ship graveyard also makes it a bad place for smugglers to run supplies through. Still, it seems likely that Ulfric may be getting some help from a few dark elves over in Morrowind. Ulfric may not like them, but both he and the dark elves have a reason to want to see the empire weakened.

[@maxherman3884]

I will say, I personally believe the empire wins this fight on sheer geographical dominance alone. Also, all the empire needs to do is hold out until the passes melt, and even if that takes years, all Tullius needs is reinforcements to bring Skyrim back into the fold.

[@kiloalphaindy]

Yes! I’ve been waiting for this video since the original NCR vs Legion video! So glad to see it!

[@tristandurr6371]

Oh hey! I was literally JUST playing Skyrim Can never get enough of this game. I'm running Alteration, 1-hand, and light armor right now

[@counterstructure4908]

The road on Haffingars north coast isn't bad either. But traversable road and traversable nature is very different and we don't know how the High Rock side is build there. But they would also need to go either all around the land tongue and fight uphill from the harbour or exhaust themself on the serpentines. More a route for the reinforcement of the reinforcement considering that.

[@samueleveleigh2767]

While I agree with you there are some external factors at play that you left out. It's stated that the main passage into Skyrim has been blocked limiting the ammount of supply and reinforcements that can enter the region via land You also have the thalmor who are very much pro stormcloak and would likely aid in the smuggling efforts as well as continue to hinder the empire. You also have the out of game lore that the good general is renowned as a military genius and we have evidence of that with the opening where he had caught ulfric in an ambush and it's hinted that this is not the first time he has been close to victory as the thalmor are trying desperately to get custody of the rebel leader and he rejects them...

[@sin66siq]

Honestly I went into this thinking there's no way there could be anything I hadn't already heard but you made a lot of good points and your grasp and understanding of realistic strategy was impressive. Good stuff man.

[@Vert_GreenHeart]

Yeah the geometry of Dragon bridge completely went over my head before and logistics also

[@ironwolf5802]

If anything if the guards knew they had the leader of the rebellion, they should have put him under the ax first. If I knew my guards had the thorn in my side and messing up my country, I would be yelling "That S.O.B. first" or do it myself without waiting.

[@Galimeer5]

One follower I often have in my party is Arweden, a custom-voiced high elf spellsword. She has quite a few comments while in Solitude (most of which are typical altmer haughtiness), but one thing she says if you're inside Castle Dour is basically questioning where the strategists are and if the Legion even takes the Civil War seriously.

[@guyd970]

Honestly I think it would be an almost never ending guerilla war that would have small territories changing hands here and there with no definitive victory for either side.

[@0DeathAngels0]

There's a couple problems with this analysis - it doesn't take into account the guerilla tactics that have decided many wars. The empire's strength and resources is concentrated at a few key points, harrasment tactics, supply chain disruptions, and even ambushes of larger forces stretched across mountain terrain are all options. Solitude is actually a death trap for the empire, its ports are pretty vulnerable to attack, and just burning them would leave the northern city totally dependent on a few roads for supplies, and vulnerable to the same choke points that make it defensible. Ulfric has sympathizers pretty much everywhere as evidenced by the fact he was let go by the man executed in Solitude, the empire will have to over-rely on their military to keep order and cant trust their own citizens. There's a lot more I havent even mentioned.

[@LewisB3217]

Guerilla tactics would still see the stormcloaks losing, they are at such a heavy disadvantage numbers wise (see the 18 or more imperial legions), so if they even dealt with the one waiting legion coming to obliterate the rebellion, they’d still lose to attrition over time

[@0DeathAngels0]

@lewisbush7147 except the already precarious position of the empire would result in only 1 legion being in the region, and if you know anything about the Maoist guerilla tactics used in the mountains of China, there's many ways it could go wrong. You're basically making all the false assumptions that would have predicted the British would win the American Revolution, but they didn't. Even modern long-term occupations don't go well. Look at Afghanistan.

[@johndavidtibbetts7320]

The most boneheaded thing the stormcloaks do is plan to invade the summerset isles after they get everything set back up here in Skyrim. Not because the Thalmor don't have it coming, they absolutely do, but because the best thing they could do is wait for the Dominion to come to them...and find Windhelm and all other major holds EMPTY, the Stormcloaks having gone to ground in the many many dungeons of Skyrim. From there they use the best weapon they have against the Thalmor: Skyrim itself. As seen with the two failed Napoleonic invasions of Russia, intense cold climate can DOOM an army just as effectively as any battle if not moreso. Tullius' smartest move was having the imperial legion - more used to the balmier climates of Cyrodill to the south - hang back while he made up his army from locals. The bottomlessly arrogant Thalmor will not have the mind to do this, and as such, their bodies, so used to the tropical isles they call home, will crash against the cold mountains of skyrim like waves on the shore. From there it'd just be a matter of picking off any remaining forces using their superior knowledge of the land and their superior constitution with the weather. The average Thalmor soldier would be horrified to see Galmar, tits out in -7 degree weather, coming at them, ax in hand, the last thing they see being his gloriously erect nipples as he uses them to gouge out the eye of the soldier next to them.

[@Roamingfirebat]

Fantastic video! I’m always just killing everything that moves playing as a khorne berserker running on a strict diet of sweet rolls and cheese.

[@TE-sq1xk]

11:00 mark idk about the Legion being able to mobilize through Hammerfell due to the conditions of the White Gold Concordat. Hammerfell is anti Thalmor and that’s the hint given in the mission where the redguard woman is in Whiterun. Hammerfell’s involvement is something that I believe could shift the tide because of how little power the legion commands. All trade for the Leigon would be through ports and waterways.

[@gabriel_the_salubri]

If the Empire would depend on moving troops through Hammerfell, they are doomed. Hammerfell broke with the Empire when Titus Mede II tried to negotiate parts of it away to the Thalmor. Considering the fact that Hammerfell was never a part of the Empire for them to negotiate with, you can imagine how they must have felt about that. As we could expect, the Redguards refused to go along with the agreement and continued fighting the Thalmor (by themselves) to a standstill that resulted in the Thalmor being driven from Hammerfell. This caused a rift between Hammerfell and Cyrodiil, which resulted in Hammerfell disassociating itself from the Empire. First because they felt that the Empire shouldn't have parlayed with the Thalmor and the fact that they alone fought them to a standstill meant that the Empire lost its nerve by capitulating to the Thalmor at all. So, unless there was a major "mea culpa" coming from the Empire, it's not unreasonable to assume that Hammerfell would either demand a heavy price to allow troop movements through their lands or they'd tell the Empire to "kick rocks".

[@Ravus_Sapiens]

The Stormcloaks does have one ally in this, one who does have the resources to fund Ulfric's rebellion as long as it is useful in weakening the Empire: the Aldmeri Dominion. The Thalmor considers Ulfric and his rebellion an asset against the Empire (this is stated in the repport on Ulfric, found in the basement under the Thalmor Embasy), because the best way to keep the Empire from recovering and launch their counterattack is if they are fighting a civil war. If Skyrim achieves independence, it will weaken the Empire by losing the imperial garrisons in Skyrim, plus whatever soldiers are killed in the conflict as well, and a Skyrim alone, still recovering from killing off half the local leaders in the region, would be easy takings for the Thalmor, who would likely justify themselves by calling it revenge for the killings done by Ysgramor and his 500 Companions. Additionally, with Skyrim out of the picture, the remaining provinces of the Empire would be divided (Morrowind never recovered from the Eruption of Red Mountain; Blackmarch, which had always been a somewhat lawless region of the Empire, fell from Imperial control after the Oblivion Crisis; Hammerfell was dealing with its own civil war and thus declared its neutrality in the conflict with the Dominion; and Valenwood and Elsweyr had been ceded to the Dominion, leaving only Cyrodill and High Rock) and any reinforcements, if the Aldmeri Dominion were to attack would be slowed down by the borders of Skyrim (where Imperial soldiers would not be welcome) and Hammerfell (who also feels that the Imperials betrayed them, and thus would also not be pleased with having imperial armies traveling through the province). Not only would the Empire win the civil war in Skyrim, a quick resolution to the conflict is probably the only stable solution that would allow the Empire to survive into the 5th Era.

[@Odinsravenhugin]

There is a few other routes unexplored as potential win conditions for Ulfric, including a few routes involving the dragonborn. Non-Dragon Born involved options include: Applications of Guerilla warfare throughout the entire country. Assuming Ulfirc is not completely brain dead, he would factor in the Empire's economic and military advantages and when the Imperials march into stormcloak territory, the stormcloaks instead go to ground and disperse to all major city centers. Add time, energy, and the willingness to keep assassinating Imperial generals, eventually it could shape up to be an Afghanistan-like situation where the Empire eventually pulls out due to extreme cost of manpower to occupy. Option two- Instead of trying to capture Solitude, raze it to the ground. You are correct that time is the greatest factor for Ulfric, so I do not think he would sit still for a siege when instead he can create chaos in imperial ranks by cutting off their command at the head. This would be unexpected by the imperials, and then the lack of leadership would make command/control of any sort of occupying force or more importantly, any blockading force nearly impossible. This could also lead to the other holds flipping to his banner as to avoid the same fate as solitude which would have arguably been considered a imperial colony at that point in the war. Dragonborn schenanigans Option one- Wait for the dragonborn to assassinate the emperor as detailed in the dark brotherhood story line. When that happens, take full advantage of the disarray the entire imperial occupying force. Strategic bribes of powerful Imperials with illusions of grandeur would lead to infighting in the power vaccum and break the legions from a cohesive force into squabbling armies. Mop up as needed and where you cant mop up, destabilize until imperial forces lose the majority of the advantages they had. Probably alot more that I'm not thinking of. But still good video.

[@grumpytoad86]

Great video. This is exactly my kind of nerdy hypothetical deep-dive! I would LOVE to see more of these 'what would happen if the player character never showed up' type videos for Fallout 3, Fallout New Vegas, and Fallout 4!

[@DrkMWN]

this was really, really interesting to watch. As someone who coincidentally picked the game back up mere days ago, it was cool to think about the differences in each sides actual advantages and disadvantages.

[@Captain_tiberius]

I totally agree. Speaking as a heavy Imperial supporter, I will offer a few points you didnt mention in the video, thta dose change things up a bit and offer the Stormcloaks a bit more strength: 1. Ulfic has (even if very much NOT open) the support of the Thalmor. In there Imperial embassy, you can find that they are plotting to do whatever it takes to insure the civil war is prolonged, since Ulfric cant accpt thier aid publicly, and they dare not commit troops, this would likely have resulted in an incress in thier "enforcing of the white gold concordent" and vastly incresing Stormcloak sympathy in imperial skyrim. 2. Dawnstar has a harbor, and connoiclly is a huge trade port. in the real world, a navel assult on the city would probley be the first act of the empire, but since they didnt, so long as dawnstar was free to both build, and host ships, the overland transportation of goods will help Ulfric's troops stay well feed. though i agree that even if the game dosent put ships down to block the river to windhelm, that its probley safe to say its blockaded. 3. Something the game dosent adress to much, but is very apparent if you play with a mod like frostfall, Skyrim is stupid cold, and the Imperial troops are NOT dressed for it. They are not equpied with the neccesary uniforms to handle to the weather, thier kilts end just above the knee for gods sake, these men and woman will litteraly be wadeing through snow with it getting ALL up in thier business. Not only is the Stormcloak unifrom muuch more weather appropite, but many of thier troops are locals, who have grown up in this enviroment all thier lives, vs the imperial troops, who most likly hail from cyrodiil which is in lore a jungle, and in Oblivian a tempreate field. 4. you didnt quite go this way, but i wanted to add, if you interpit events so that the dragon born didnt arrive, *but the dragons did* it would likely work into the favor the Stormcloaks. The choas the dragons would bring would likly break up the Imperial supplelines far more then the nords, who probley rely more on radeing tactics. The dragons are likley (i dont know if its ever said in game) drawn to gold, meaning that the IMpire who probley needs to pay its troops FAR more then the stromcloaks, would be the target of dragon fire far more often. All that said, I totaly agree that the Stormcloak rebellion is/was doomed to faliure. Only accomplishing the likley long term destablizaton of the region. As no doubt long after the war is officaly over, pockits of "troops" will continue to be a problem for decades to come.

[@AgtPaper665]

I agree that the Stormcloaks are at a strategic disadvantage and would still likely lose on the merits, but morale and reason for fighting would also play a huge factor. The Imperial Senate is already tired of the rebellion at the start of the game, and are only still in it because of the Thalmor. The Stormcloaks, on the other hand are full of all-in radical populists who feel like their religion, customs, and way of life are being snuffed out. I doubt even Ulfric's death would temper that kind of resolve, and there are more sympathetic Nords even in the Imperial parts of Skyrim than there are dissenters in the Stormcloak areas. A diplomatic and/or propagandic campain would be easily viable to turn Morthal, Dawnstar, and Falkreath; cutting off resupply and granting access to more naval options. Markarth would be a sticking point and might even become it's own independant state without Imperial backing (Forsworn gonna Forsworn). All Ulfric would need to do is turn enough people against the Thalmor, who aren't super popular with the Nords or even many other Imperial races in Skyrim, for the Senate to bugger off. This would, unfortunately, be likely to start another Altmeri War; but Skyrim didn't fall in the first one, so the High Elves might not want to take another shot at it.

[@GallowglassAxe]

I'm actually impressed with this in the use of historical medieval tactics and strategy. The basics were covered and there wasn't any absolutes (like how you mention most sieges were a waiting game but not always). There is probably some more crazy tactics that they could try to implement like for example they could have made a pontoon bridge either down or above the river and bypass Dragon's Bridge. It has been done but its a big gamble. I was worried about this video because though I do like Mat Pat's videos his historical information is questionable at best. So great job!

[@Gogsi90]

LOVE to see ShoddyCast even if its just you now(you are great!) going back to their roots,i remember watching all the videos about the Deadra lords all of the lore vids ah...just keep it up m8 the Algoritham will pick you up at some point :D