Why A 9/11-Era Political Consensus Seems Impossible These Days l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Jennifer Merolla, a political science professor at UC-Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center, reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible right now. CalMatters politics reporter Laurel Rosenhall and vice president of Political Data Inc. Paul Mitchell also join to discuss the current state of the California gubernatorial recall election.
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[@richardcamarenaiii]

It’s been a week since this video, but I have to add that as someone who was a baby at the time of 9/11, the trauma of that day was passed down to the next generations. So many documentaries, the family tear-sessions of remembrance, and the people who knew people in New York on 9/11…it was impossible to escape the shadow of that day growing up in the 2000’s. Maybe 2010’s kids can avoid the event’s worst trauma, but the rest of us can’t. History certainly did not end. It just kept going after 9/11, to the point where it feels like I was born after a tragic beginning to a tragic century.

[@patrickw9634]

Wait… Galen was ten in 2001? That would mean he’s younger than I am. Why does he get to age well while I age exponentially? I demand a deep dive article into the 538 employee skincare regimen, filled with charts and links!

[@kub2039]

Wait if he’s younger than you are, it makes sense that he looks younger right?

[@patrickw9634]

@@kub2039 I should say “not much younger”

[@PinchytheCrab00]

It should have been mentioned about comparing 2001 and 2021 is that there's been a tremendous rise in conspiratorial thinking. The 2001 Truthers conspiracy theorists were widely-discounted outliers then; the equivalent to a similar event today would be both much more popular and and MUCH more rapidly spread and disseminated, both on social media and by some traditional media outlets. That kind of conspiracy theorizing would deeply cut into the national unity feeling of the rally round the flag effect.

[@TerenceClark]

Good point! Especially since the conspiracies even are polarized. The 9/11 truthers never really got substantial buy in from groups in either major party. I do think we came out of GW Bush's administration more polarized than when we went in. So I'm not even sure he would have seen the same reception if the planes hit in, say, 2006 if we just take polarization into account. (since a lot happened between that can't really be extracted from the equation, I don't pretend this is a realistic scenario)

[@VictorAntares]

Neat mix of folks.

[@Soonzuh]

"Homeland Security" should raise red flags. That function is performed by the military in most countries, but the function of US military is not to defend the US, but to attack others.

[@Stargate2077]

9/11-Era Political Consensus was a scary time. I don’t want that kind of political consensus.

[@suburbanhousewife40]

Statistics and probability are not my specialty. You guys have that covered. Still, IMO, every poll should ask about religion. The evangelical-instigated schism in Americans is UNDER analysed.

[@kielanrathjen1061]

538th viewer - how is this happening?!?! 🤩🤩🤩

[@daniellogue8365]

Can you book Paul and Laurel every day until next Tuesday please?

[@danwylie-sears1134]

It was never about policies "to go after terrorists", at all. No one thought that Iraq had anything to do with the Saudi terrorists. Nor did anyone think that shifting the tax burden to the less affluent was going to do anything against terrorism.

[@glenncalkins4764]

The list of candidates to vote for on the recall ballot is really, really dismal. I thought it was important to vote for someone other than Larry Elder, but I couldn't find anyone, so I did leave it blank after all.

[@TerenceClark]

I think there are some parallels between Newsom and Scott Walker in 2011 on the basis of some of what was said. Unlike Newsom, Walker did have one big, target issue. But they share in common a lack of enthusiasm among moderates for the issues prompting the recall. And "it's bad, but recall bad?" is sort of the central question voters are taking with them to the polls. With Walker, a big part of the recall failure came down to plain philosophical disagreement with the very idea of a recall, even among vocal Walker opponents.

[@unvexis]

Why would we want the kind of consensus we had shortly after 11 Sep 2001? That's when we started the Afghanistan boondoggle. American citizens united in harassing immigrants. We passed harmful policies, some of which remain on the books today. The air-travel experience has never recovered. Thanks, but I'll take polarization over that any day. If we got attacked again, then we'd have that kind of consensus again, unfortunately.

[@WeatherManToBe]

Exactly

[@tailoredteflon]

For some of us Gen-Z, 9/11 was our first memory

[@hbattagl]

CC not available?

[@WeatherManToBe]

Was it political consensus or was it imperialism?

[@balljointfd3s]

How do you all have jobs after 2016 and 2020? Also losing Harry Enten...

[@fahim-ev8qq]

Their job is just to construct narratives elites can use at random dinner parties. No relation to reality

[@krishaysrivastav6043]

To be fair, they only make the polling averages albeit after adjusting for bias. It isn't their fault that all credible and non-partisan polls were wrong.