Why China Will Not Last This Decade - Peter Zeihan

With tensions heating up between the United States and China, questions are being asked about the future of US global dominance, with China seen as the rising power to dethrone Uncle Sam. Peter Zeihan, a political strategist sees this picture very differently, arguing that China lacks many qualities to overtake the United States of America. Contrary to popular opinion, Peter Zeihan insists that the CHinese system is facing collapse and in this video, we will look at Peter Zeihan’s views on the future of China to see why China, as a country, will not last this decade. I hope you enjoy this video and without further adieu, You’re watching All Things Humanities.
Full Video at • Iowa Swine Day 2022: A...

[@justanotheroldguy738]

1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a halt. 1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard landing 1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing 2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if China.. 2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China 2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 2011. Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think 2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing 2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China 2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing …. 2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China 2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash? 2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the Chinese Debt Crisis 2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started? 2022. Cathie Wood: China’s COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse Than You Think 2022. Business Basics: China’s Economic Crisis, GDP is Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is Here.

[@HenryTitor]

If I get a penny every time major publishers announce "China is crashing", I'll have maybe 20 bucks by now, which isn't much but it made me question the intentions behind these articles

[@Roonasaur]

It's all fun and games until one of those things happens.

[@dannyize]

@@Roonasaur Yeah, but Peter Zeihan is the one running with scissors in his outstretched hand, not China.

[@troymash8109]

Talk to people who are there or been there recently who know the country. Things are going downhill fast as hell.

[@tas1624]

Real economic growth mostly ended in 1996. The real estate Ponzi scheme and mostly useless mega-projects has given the appearance of growth for the last 25 years.

[@thedudeabides3167]

And when 2030 rolls by and China is still a nation, I want my 11 minutes and 10 seconds back with interest.

[@samratmuppana529]

Watch indian astrologers predictions . China will break up in to 7 nations by the end of world War 3 i.e by 2032

[@ugljesaradosavac4489]

Those was 11 min of pure stand up comedy. I was LMAO from start to the end

[@sidecar7714]

They endured through massive famine and decades of poverty, so…

[@narmortein537]

What a joke, when Sunzi was writing the Art of War, Europeans were eating raw meat. A 245 years old nation is trying to play tactics with a 5,000 years old civilization.

[@gendoruwo6322]

China is a police state, with extremely firm grip on its population. Of course it won't collapse. It will just get hollowed out... more and more.

[@Madmax-zc2gk]

One can go back and forth about this subject all day and night…but being a former Veteran and someone who has spent some time in the Pentagon, I can say this…without being specific… The DOD, NSA, CIA and numerous think-tanks throughout this country, study China from top to bottom every minute of every day… I think this guy has some valid points, but he’s just scratching the surface when it comes to a geo-political and strategic analysis of China…

[@sjsomething4936]

Agreed, he hasn’t even touched on the severe drought issues facing China, which are potentially the most important thing that they have to deal with. The entire world is facing similar challenges, but when your population is 1 billion + it becomes much more acute much more quickly. I don’t think his analysis is deep enough to support his conclusions with certainty, but without question it’s facing challenges like never before as so many people now live in cities as opposed to being a massively rural and agrarian economy. It’s unbelievably hard to do the transition China is attempting in such a short timeframe without also encountering huge obstacles.

[@Madmax-zc2gk]

@@sjsomething4936 spot-on…couldn’t agree more Sir…

[@jamesp3902]

@@sjsomething4936 In another video he mentions much of the Chinese grain storage methods do not preserve the grain. These videos tend to be a broad overview geared towards the specific audience.

[@sjsomething4936]

@@jamesp3902 ah, this is the first video of his that I’ve watched, I’m rather fascinated by the status of China as it doesn’t get any real coverage in most news channels unless it involves mass casualties like an earthquake or flood. I was actually quite surprised by the non-payment of mortgage issues occurring with unfinished high rises so just had this video suggested to me. Thanks for the tip, I’ll watch a few more of his videos.

[@MRCATL3]

What you folks over look ad nauseam is cultural influence. How many Russian movies, music or other cultural influences do you see?

[@henryhe4040]

I am actually a bit surprised by this guy, coz hardly could I find even a single point right about China in his speech. Anyone who has spent several months in China will get my point. It would be the best gift to China if all the so-called geopolitical analysts in USA are like him.

[@Gregoryno6]

Fifteen years ago I was hearing the same dire predictions. Back then the line was 'Their banking system is a joke, it's a house of cards, just wait until the Olympics have been and gone. Everything will fall apart.' Uh-huh. Yeah, well... I pity the ordinary Chinese people who are caught in the trap of perpetual lockdown. We had our share of that in Australia, and thankfully we're past it.

Well, it is - their housing crisis is the most severe across the planet and your demographic collapse is inescapable. You can harp on as much as you want about how our predictions have been off, but a demographic collapse isn't something that will go away, it's a ticking time bomb, and it will go off sooner than later.

[@speedmastermarkiii]

I want you to make a list of people you think weren't worth locking down for in Australia and then send them letters explaining why you believe they were expendable.

[@Gregoryno6]

@@speedmastermarkiii Oh. Is that what you want?

[@speedmastermarkiii]

@@Gregoryno6 Yep. I think it would be good for you.

[@orlock20]

I believe people are watching China with an eye that saw the fall of the Soviet Union that on the outside looked like a quick fall even though the Soviet Union was rotting for decades. I don't believe China will go away, but its glory days are more behind it than in front of it much like what happened with Japan.

[@ldon4002]

This guy is right. China has been dying for 5000 years, but still in the process of dying. How many thousands years needed to complete this process. So funny to have such a mindset.

[@hernantapia2180]

It's like a dying star.

[@dheera8889]

5000 years? PRC is barely 70 years old. By your logic Modern Iraq is Mesopotamia, modern India is IVC.

[@alexanderthegreatoz5945]

@@dheera8889 it's China that keep insisting on "ancient" Chinese documents and routes and influence and whatnots.

[@dheera8889]

@@alexanderthegreatoz5945 that's called stupidity..

[@UCantSeeemeee]

@@dheera8889 india is just a 70 years old country and also present day india would not be like be big before British came to south asia.

[@lyndamcardle4123]

The salient point to bear in mind with regards to China is that , unlike western governments, they look to the long term 15-20 years. Western politicians sadly only look to the next elections and there lies the nub of the problem.

[@_truthful_q_]

Perhaps you haven't heard of the New American Century - 100 year plan...

[@babetopaz]

@@_truthful_q_ never been sure if that was / is preceint or total neo-con madness.

[@zadaw7220]

Sometimes they think in terms of centuries. For example, they have yet to open the first emperor's tomb which if the legends are true would be the greatest achaelogical find ever.

[@johndoe-vc1we]

This idea that China thinks long term is a myth. Their handling of covid is ample evidence 😊

[@519stream3]

These idiots predicted China would collapse but I predicted the total opposite. And I predict China will keep rising for at least two hundreds years. I am tired of these idiots.

[@stgermain6488]

A 250 year old former country (now just an economic zone w/ nukes) is saying a 5 millennium old civilization is going to evaporate. You can't make this up😂

[@sunilu.ajinadasa3515]

Interesting take. Its the China & Asia that is rising. unless they are brought to their knees by perpetrated wars. The west can't bear to see the change in super power status.

[@patphatkitten]

He just means it won't exist as it is today in like 10 years. He also said that the lack of people will really hurt them in 2050, IF nothing else goes wrong. I think he says in 10 years because there are too many things going wrong all at the same time. War, COVID 19 virus, less people to make things, corruption in government, producing too much money, Americans losing interest in keeping the waterways and oceans safe for trade, etc. Just Peter is saying this, not America, but a few people agree with him in some things and the US military asks him questions and consult with him. Whether they take his answers seriously, that I don't know.

[@randyross5630]

As Roger Stone once said to me "China doesn't have the Oil for War"

[@robbiekop7]

It has plenty of gutter oil 😩

[@justanotheroldguy738]

That's actually the only anti-China comment in here that makes any sense at all.

[@ottorucavado2242]

@@justanotheroldguy738 With the russian oil... problem solve!

[@justanotheroldguy738]

@@ottorucavado2242 Maybe. But in time of war, it's a foolish country that trusts another for its survival. Tho, I do bet that the Chinese have a HUGE stockpile of oil. Their government plans ahead and I bet they buy when prices are low and store it all over the country.

[@randyross5630]

@@justanotheroldguy738 Twitter was Streamed at me for making that my highlighted tweet onto, considering someone in the Saudi Royal Family and dozens of other Blue Check Marks from around the World, so I didn't last long on Twitter. And to that twit going problem solved Russian Oil.. well that takes time, and given all the fundamentals against China now is their Peek of Power, and by the time they sort out their Oil Issue, they'll be past their peek power and alliances against them firmly rooted. Right now, the Vast Majority of their Oil is Imported, and even excluding India, the US, Japan, UK, Australia and others can 100% cut their maritime Oil Supply off which is most of their Oil. With India Involved, it would be far to easy. So the Fact is, China doesn't have the Oil for War at the Peek of their Power. Look into China's Population Demographics, Rising Costs, Global Hatred, and all the Debt, Cooked Books, and Bubbles. And by the time they start feeling it, and have to draw down spending on the Military, will be with the lag time of Republics when we really start building, and a Future China will be Dwarfed Militarily, and may have to Pay the Piper again, and here comes another 100 years of shame, started by the same piss poor Behavior by them as the 1st time. A Silk Road Existed, so China must be Number Wone and every Bow for all Time, accept Rome was Number Wone, places like Eygpt before and all of Christidom which took over the world. So I'm just not sure how a Silk Road, means China was Number Wone and it's So Unfair if we don't bow down and let it happen again in a nasty zero sum gain game...

[@Mr-Tony-888]

Very interesting however! 3:30 I was living in China 15 years, I had all my vacinations in China, returning to UK a few months ago and caught covid, 2 days sick and fine. My point! Chinese will not die but they think they will.

[@seanbear69]

Most Chinese will not die. But there's a lot of them. Millions will die and that is trouble.

[@Mr-Tony-888]

@@seanbear69 My point Sen is; Their vaccinations work, millions wont die but is their way to keep foreigners out and the fear in their minds.

[@wongmo6429]

Chinese culture had been around for some 5000 years and I think it will continue for at least 10 more years.

[@homer1273]

are you living under a rock or did you not know the communist completely destroyed any thing that was left of "chinese culture"

[@MrLiupengfei]

LOL, don't discuss winter with bugs, they don't even know winter exists. That's literally what happens when Americans talks about China

[@ogathingo8885]

When you have benevolent leaders , who respects diversity, religious and economic freedom the country will flourish! But when you have totalitarian regime that controls everything what their citizens do, this regime will crumble sooner or later…

[@MrKillswitch88]

Sure that culture invested by 19th century ideologues who've never worked a day in their lives and never picked up anything heavier than a book sure while traditional culture has been in decline since Mao. The sooner the CCP kicks the bucket the better as what is there now is little more than a cancer on the backs of the Chinese people.

[@SiD19884]

culture.. not the nation.. 2 very different things.. can you count how many times china became whole again and then it broke again? Failing to see this first step is already a failure on your part.

[@jascam1]

China has over a 3000 year history compared to the U.S 250 years. Chinese has discipline, patience and are group focused, they will overcome any short term obstacles and rise to dominance.

[@glennalexon1530]

It's ridiculous to claim that China "can't participate in manufacturing supply chains"; literally thousands of factories in China are open at this moment;

[@darshanchung]

They are open, but do they have orders?

[@greyknightcharpter6689]

@@darshanchung Look, China has the biggest consumer markets, OFC have orders. In fact Many small countries depending on selling china. the thing is a huge inner consumer market plus international orders making china grow like +10 per year. when west orders fall, growth rate slow down a bit but still Far better than western countries, when you look closely china's problems compare to western is literally nothing. in a word, west is fucked. but still they think china in trouble. Like early 1800. china is already fucked. but at the time they still think thet are mighty compare to western barbs.Hve no idea whats going on in the west. History

[@jujuchrys]

Surely, that's been what a lot of "geopolitical experts" believed in the past 30 years...

[@dannyboy_vtc8980]

Yeah like russians and chinese are saying the west is falling for double the amount of time and still today rely completely on western technology.

[@cspace1234nz]

They'll survive, of course they will, these countries always find a way to respond and adapt.

[@kamcobbe]

Sure, they will survive, but in what condition in comparison to the other economic/political powers?

[@cspace1234nz]

@@kamcobbe ,,,,what, Like the US, pretty much broke, crumbling from the inside out, yet they carry on like so many other countries in similar positions.

[@DoubleDogDare54]

China will survive, but not at the level it has enjoyed over the last few decades due to western investment. That last is leaving and won't return. China will decline as a result. They cannot exist without the West pumping cash into them.

[@hanooi7450]

@@kamcobbe Like which one? Japan, Korea, EU which are all aging faster? USA useful population is also aging. The young don't earn back their cost of capital.

[@texaswunderkind]

China will always exist. With any luck they will throw off the corrupt CCP and have some real reform.

[@goddardpk]

Considering how connected our economies are, I struggle with isolating the demise of one super power without considering our own local fiscal blemishes. The west has been exporting its inflation for decades. Hard working Chinese are going to lose their retirements due, in part, to their government enabling a property bubble. However, I see similar conditions existing close to home as well.Central banks have somehow managed to create massive asset bubbles that may result in similar 'pain'. We are in the beginnings of a quantitive tightening cycle in the mouth of an impending recession. How can anyone be throwing a rock when all of us are living in glass houses?

[@gavingeorgecouk8250]

We are not perfect so we shouldn't try to predict future risks from other countries. 🤔

[@scottpatrick8352]

America is on it's way to a collapse as well. If China collapses we will just get there sooner

[@gunny7769]

I live in a wooden and metal house. Idk what ur talking about bub. Go back to ur Libral thought bubble, nerd.

[@ammonioussaccas]

China isn’t a super power. If they were they’d be openly supporting Russia. China is the C in BRIC.

[@cad5238]

It won't be the first time nor the last recession in our lifetimes.You deftly forget the global pandemic created and spread by the Chinese!.The U.S. has access to domestic increased oil production. Cheaper oil? To fuel the economic industrial growth.No economy can grow without it. So the U.S. ? Can and will support its own domestic economy,with or without imports.Walmart should open her own market.To fill her shelves. Not depend on a communist country that hates the U.S. democratic form of government.

[@hongleongooi2559]

Peter Zeihan deserves the Gordon Chang Award for his efforts!😆

[@0s0n3gr0]

The difference is that he predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine down to the year a decade in advance and he relies on data not prognostication. He also predicted the current inflation years ago, so you might want to just check his data before you go all Chang on him. Just a thought

[@lagrangewei]

@@0s0n3gr0 many people made that prediction, even the dead clock is right twice a day.

[@janstapaj9689]

Look what he sayed before ,then ....

[@Laurence1990]

He is more clumsy than Chang. This Peter has no brain at all - no !

[@levelazn]

​@@0s0n3gr0 Every Russian predicted the invasion of Ukraine. Thats not an accomplishment. even the Ukrainians themsleves saw this coming. Currently inflation is also predictable if you been paying attention to how america prints money

[@gerardomanteca5224]

To the people that say “ i knew this was coming” Cmon, you did not, this dude slapped everyone in the face with his recent book and turned conventional wisdom on its head.

[@kanahildjaminami2542]

@@wesdonovan821 Guess no one listened, until COVID.

[@jimmywang1586]

@@kanahildjaminami2542 Wrong, nobody listened EVEN during COVID to both real & fake experts, from Fauci to this charlatan political strategist.

[@deexero]

gordon chang since 01.

[@TheTrympeten]

It's still just a theory, so no one has been slapped yet. Relax.

[@kenhubbard7355]

He's a Yank, He's got yank VALUES, money PROFIT, SO HE IS HERE TRYING TO SELL HIS. B O O K. That is why he wrote it, JUST saying what he knows suckers want to believe , oil bet he's never had a real job in his life AND he has no intention of getting one

[@ramenisgood4u]

Hey, love this content and thanks for the upload. But please could you in the intro/description let us know when this talk was given? It’s really relevant for context! Thanks!

[@allthingshumanities5328]

Hi George, it was from the Iowa swine day 2022, from the Iowa pork industry centre.

[@ramenisgood4u]

@@allthingshumanities5328 June 29th, cool! Many thanks!

[@YuChiGongG]

@@allthingshumanities5328 Recently, China has had major problems with diseased hogs. Xi, of course, is the CPC's fattest and most problematic hog.

[@morgan1719]

If Peter Zeihan was ever relevant, his relevance will not last this decade, because the Internet doesn't forget goofy predictions like the one in this video. Relative to Mr. Zeihan's wispy arguments, China is rock solid.

[@dc95811]

He sounds very convincing to himself. Good job!

[@solapowsj25]

Yup. He mentioned india🇮🇳 is a contributor.

[@anasqader3851]

@Asahi Ogawa Hello bot

[@Western_Decline]

he's a grifter, selling cope to Western civilization

[@hughmungus2760]

People need to rub it in how wrong he got his 2020 predictions were. He literally said that covid was going to see the CCP overthrown that year.

[@scottwebb4722]

So let me get this straight: a country and civilisation that has lasted close to 5000 years is going to have trouble lasting another 10?

[@vitocorleone8323]

If you think China's covid over reaction is bad let's see how it reacts to being a nursing home in 25 years. See the Unprecedented Aging Crisis that's about to hit China by PBS on KZbin.

[@levelazn]

Only if you are a neo con or neo liberal and believe on the supremacy of western civilization withstanding crisis better than the east

[@bkudla]

China has failed many times. Dont confuse China, with Chinese Empires.

[@patphatkitten]

Yes. China is made up of different groups of people and they speak different languages. The soil is not fertile. It is hard to grow crops in China. A conqueror named Chin united them under the Chin dynasty. The new country was called China. It existed as different groups of people, speaking different languages. Mandarin was made China' s official language. China has a lot of debt. Half of the women who should exist are gone, killed as babies. They don't have enough people to keep making goods to export to other countries. They don't have a strong navy. Many of its people are going to starve to death. Right now, Sept. 3, 2022, they don't have electricity, according to a podcaster who had his Chinese language lessons cancelled. He told his teacher, just use your cell phone. The teacher said, "you don't understand. There is no electricity , anywhere. I am looking out of the window and everything is dark". I agree with Peter. China will naturally go back to a collection of city-states. I doubt China will get the help they need fast enough, because too many countries have a labor shortage and they will be focused on their own problems.

[@xo2893]

The trouble just come to you, Scott Webb your mind got mental disability.

[@stringsofgrace5591]

I am watching this from India a country where as a child we used to read that we would be overtaking the Chinese economy by 2020, now it's the year 2022. The thing is that the west over enthusiasm in downplaying countries with differing ideological views has created a world order where we live in a make believe scenario while the monster grows bigger and bigger.

[@debasismohanty1952]

In india we think we are sole super power 🤣🤣🤣 but reality is we are still struggling china economy 17 trillion at the moment but our economy just 3.3 trillion but we still thinks we will surpass usa and become a largest economy..

[@dennisbrown5313]

I fear for India relative to AGW - in the near future, much of your country will be subjected to deadly wet bulb temperatures making it lethal to be out side (for over 24 hours - not for a few hours.) This will happen in a few decades at best. Frankly, this is THE issue that truly scares me and should be talked about NOW. I don't want this to occur to such a great country and culture.

[@Metatropian]

@@dennisbrown5313 what if the next glaciation begins early due to any number of factors not predicted by climate modeling?

[@LinasVepstas]

@@Metatropian What if the sun doesn't rise tomorrow morning? It's so terribly hard to predict the future, you never know what's going to happen. There may be any number of factors not predicted by sun-rise modeling.

[@A000803323]

@@LinasVepstas I think we can all agree that the climate models have proven to be much more accurate than the sun-rise models. Great comparison!

[@TJ_Silvester]

Prioritising health in a country where the air is thick with pollution, rivers are full of heavy metals, and there is literally not a single bird in the sky.

[@JamesKo]

Yes Please, Please make the politicians in the USA believe this.

[@icestationzebra8636]

The only thing USA politicians believe is the gas they produce when they speak, nobody else can stand the smell though.

[@vnln1868]

I totally support your proposal 😁. Unless the US politicians discovers that Peter is a agent of the communists 😂.

[@cosmoray9750]

It's even WORSE than we thought... kzbin.info/www/bejne/qJzToYJqpJKEf80

[@Kurol12345]

The people of China have the same aspirations as most people in the world but the CCP is no better than hitler or stalin or putin. We are waiting for these tyrants to fall and biden to go.

[@Hmyt-yucca]

There is no lack of conman in anywhere on earth, particularly in the USA !

[@fsxmantra]

Charlatans, swindlers, scalawags and mountebanks abound.

[@cfwin1776]

They’ve been saying the same thing for the last 50 years😂

[@musiclover5023]

Up until the mid 1980s the talk was about Japanese power, then China took the baton from Japan. 💰

[@steventan2550]

A talented stand-up comedian!

[@garychin5321]

Well said! Very Difficult to take him seriously even from a Hongkonger living in the U.K. The Mid-West have their own "Sub-Culture"' and Narrow View on the Rest of the World; similar to some "Counties" in the U.K. Most have never ventured further East than Western Turkey and they Profess. to know the Whole Of Asian and E. Asia. Some still believe that Alexander the Great really did conquer the WHOLE of Asia and China/ Korea/ Japan. What can U do but smile!😄

[@kinggeorgethe1st554]

Can we have the link to the full lecture??

[@Trenacetate43]

he is not a professor or an educator, don't kid yourself that this is a lecture lol

[@kinggeorgethe1st554]

@@Trenacetate43 his talk is very factually based and just makes predications given current events. Granted in a nihilistic twist

[@clementlee7505]

I have heard this many times before, yet China is still standing.

[@oreotiger100]

I totally agree with you that China will stand. But the regime will change, it happens in Chinese history all the time.

[@B_y1n]

The "Mandate of Heaven" is coming for Xi and the CCP.

[@Hangover-ry9bo]

If everything was static i agree with Peter, but Russia as well as China recognize the problem and create new customers, allies and suppliers all the time. Its all dynamic. Russia permafrost will not freeze the pipelines because there is no customers moving their oil. They will hustle to reduce being cut off. This is not North Korea were nothing goes or functions to get in or out. Most countries realize that after COVID and the Ukraine conflict and reduce the risk. The Chinese Navi has not been in a hot war since I was born 1974, so their reach and capabilities + not high ranking officer with any experience might be worse then Russia unless they take on undefended islands.

[@iankuah8606]

You are correct about the PLA Navy. Numbers and sheer firepower is one thing against a small and weak objective, but facing a peer adversary is when the SHTF. The ability to fight a ship successfully is down to training, disclipline and experience and the PLA Navy has never been tested in actual combat. You only have to look at the conflict in Ukraine to see how a larger and better equipped force can be defeated by a smaller but better trained and motivated adversary employing superior tactics.

[@ajaykumarsingh702]

@@iankuah8606 No. It's the doctrine of any military that matters the most, then comes the tactics. And tactics entirely dependent on the level of technology that the military is employing. The technology of each nation is not equal. Some are obviously superior to others and some are obviously inferior. If any superior military is being beaten in a war then it is not the failure of the technology but the military doctrine, tactics and ultimately the geographical strategy. What we are seeing in Ukraine is the failure of Russian military doctrine, it is not the failure of Russian firepower at all. Don't be so deluded at all, know this - that Russia could squash Ukraine anytime it wants, if they are enduring such losses then there is definitely something they want or else they could have blown all of Ukraine by now. By general observation, it is clear that Russia is sparing the powerplants and industrial units of Ukraine so that they can use those for themselves later when they capture the entire Ukraine.

@@ajaykumarsingh702 This comment aged like milk. Haven't laughed so hard for a long time. So anyway, how's Russia's control over Izyum and the adjacent cities?

[@hughmungus2760]

@@iankuah8606 if theres a war between the US and china its already game over. Nukes will fly, Guaranteed.

[@prrabhatkiran1880]

Being an Indian who lived in and out of Chiina many times, there is only one thing I can say. It's the people who builds and destroys a nation. If you have a free thinking nation that stands together, nothing can destroy it.

[@ronaldalexander5377]

But the Chinese aren't free thinking

[@johnteets2921]

@@ronaldalexander5377 You mean they sometimes think about things besides mutilating children ?

[@Orcalein7367]

But they don't have a "Free thinking nation"

[@OrionTheta1]

Tell the American GOP group that please. They might... listen.

[@syhuhjk]

@@Orcalein7367 they have much more rights than Americans

[@blaisepascal5197]

The oil problem is the same as the Japanese navy had during ww2

[@pp2021]

Good point. We all know how the Japanese tried to solve that problem. Hope history does not repeat itself yet again, even if we are talking about other countries.

[@blaisepascal5197]

@@pp2021 Most modern wars are fought over scarce natural resources.

[@pp2021]

@@blaisepascal5197 ALL wars are fought over resources, or, what you have got and how Im going to take it away from you. Has been since the first caveman lobbed a rock at his neighbor

[@blaisepascal5197]

@@pp2021 I considered that response, and discarded it , but upon reflection I agree with your conclusion. Thou shall not covet your neighbor's ass.

[@Thephilpw99]

This is why Chinese hate Japanese as well, because Japanese also invaded China to rob their land and resources. Yet today America is sided with Japanese, the devil.

[@russellgallman7566]

Zeihan's theory of money may not be on point, but the possibility of him being close to accurate on resources is quite an eye opener.

[@poopshoes7579]

His point about demographics is the real killer….he thinks china (not being overrun by “refugees” or being demographically replaced by foreigners) won’t outlast America (first empire I can think of whose goal became genocide of its founding stock was made policy)….on that I believe he’s completely and painfully wrong

[@ruoyuli4091]

zeihan is a neo con, people like him have been responsible for the managed decline of the states based on the false notion that an america led world order is morally superior. Hence america has Gotten itself entangled in forever wars wasting lives and resources, accelerating the decline of an otherwise healthy country. Listen to him at your own peril

[@JimWilliams]

I'll trust his theories over anything you have to say.

[@user-vp1vl6yp9t]

Come on, stopping stealing shiitt, you thieves, china has collapsed long ago and many times.

What theory of money? That RMB is a total fraud and a political token?

[@raymondmoore2707]

I think I agree with his analysis. American problems are internal.

[@LL-vg2kd]

He is the problem. Agreeing with him, then you have problem too.

[@allthingshumanities5328]

What is wrong with what he says?

[@GS250Premiun]

First step in getting to know your adversary is pronouncing his name. Chairman Xi is not Gee or She. It's Xi as in Si or See. There's a reason Mao romanized (Hanyu Pinyin) the Mandarin language, but some pretenders don't take the time to look it up, before making themselves sound foolish, and uneducated.

[@raymondmoore2707]

@@GS250Premiun no American will ever care

[@LL-vg2kd]

@@raymondmoore2707 Then leave China alone if you know nothing about China. Focus on your own not others. The question for you to think is whether America care about you.

[@abellyold4859]

Since 2000 + years, the Chinese nation had endured many catastrophes of magnitude which would have wiped out other nations.

[@dannyhe4175]

Zeihan's last book "Accidental superpower" almost all his predictions in that book have failed materialized. Just take all these so called experts with a grain of salt.

[@batrickpateman2086]

I haven't read that one, what were some predictions?

[@batrickpateman2086]

@@jdo8405 1. Russia is infact at war with ukraine right now. They'd need that to hold that gap. 2. We are watching China have an extremely nasty real estate crisis 3. The majority of the EU countries are aging into retirement rn. I'd say maybe he wasn't spot on, but it seems like he's really onto something.

[@batrickpateman2086]

@@jdo8405 did not notice you were being sarcastic.

[@shirleylee6523]

Danny He, thank you for the data

[@Victor-ov7hw]

@@jdo8405 russia already had the black sea

[@surfwriter8461]

This guy has the movement, delivery and facial expressions of a standup comic while trying to make broad and highly questionable claims about current and future conditions in China. I wouldn't bank on it, but he obviously believes what he believes and wants to entertain you as he worries you about that. I don't expect geopolitical commentary to be the same sober monotone delivery from every pundit, but this delivery undercuts the seriousness and credibility of the speech content.

[@williamerdman4888]

I agree, he seems overconfident to me. These are very difficult things to predict and he seems to underestimate adaptation by individuals..

[@Don_nell]

He's right. China won't be the leading superpower of the next decades.

[@antoniogasse4111]

Enthusiasm is a good thing. He's done his research, he has his numbers, and he's confident in his conclusion. It helps no one if he's a boring speaker that inhibits the communication of his own ideas.

[@pikachus5m166]

Typical neo-con projection and deflection propaganda, and done in a gloating manner. The problem is how he glosses over domestic issues that affect Americans to a far greater extent

[@CorePathway]

Ok you don’t like his delivery. But can you refute his main points and conclusion?

[@jasonshen584]

When I was born my father told my family that we are gonna leave China cuz it's collapsing in a few months. I graduated high school this year, China is soon to be no.1. Not saying it can't happen, but take it with a container box of salt.

[@joseph3036]

Soon to be no.1? Hahaha. China will not collapse but it will not be number one either.

[@darshanchung]

When you were born, what was chinas gdp growth rate? What is it now?

[@jasonshen584]

@@joseph3036 It's PPP is already no.1, it's also the biggest trading country in the world. You hold the same mindset as the Japanese 15 years ago.

[@OLDUSAFMedic]

Our government won't let them fail. We need their people too much.

[@alex-shanghai]

I am a fan of this Peter Zeihan. I am also a fan of Gordon Chang. They bring us joy.

[@tancsun]

Right. These two story tellers have been kept busy for decades and will continue way to predict China's economic collapse. It will certainly happen one day but I am not sure they will live to see it.

[@chris-su8ns]

The scenario could change in the next 5-10 years. Europe is in the process of becoming less dependent on Russian oil and gas. So Russia will be forced to look for new customers and this is where China comes in. There are still hardly any pipelines to China, but that could change quickly. And with this secure energy supply over land, in the future you will no longer be so dependent on oil tankers.

[@anthonyedwards7019]

Not so easy, oil from Siberia will collapse because the only people who can maintain the system have pulled out.

[@justanotheroldguy738]

Russia has already found new customers. China, India and others. The Russian economy is doing great - even with the sanctions. Europe; however, has put itself in a deadly spot. They have no where else to get their oil/gas other than the US (and Middle East) and we charge them a ton.

[@silentwatcher1455]

There are pipelines already in place and its operating normally. Its not their habit to announce their plans or action. Only US does that irrational thing.

[@iankuah8606]

Building pipelines takes years, and there are mountain ranges and deserts actoss which they would have to run. And if Russia were to collapse it does not take a stretch of the imagination to see China invading its eastern territories. Due to US hostility to both at this point in time the Sino-Russian alliance is one of convenience, but you have to remember that China and Russia are also historical adversaries. Political winds blow both ways!

[@chris-su8ns]

@@silentwatcher1455 That's right, there are two or three pipelines from Russia towards China. But they are not enough to transport the required amounts of gas and oil to China, so that Russia can compensate for the loss of the European market and China becomes independent of the supply routes across the sea. This means that new supply lines have to be built, and that will definitely take several years.

[@hankxu3457]

Peter is more of a comedian rather than a political analyst.

[@deborahcurtis1385]

He's making sound points in an entertaining way. Nothing wrong with his analysis so far. He's describing a regime in decline, and he's pointing out the crucial weaknesses. He doesn't get bogged down in data with no context. The ability to contextualise is key.

[@RogerOnTheRight]

Where is he wrong? Can you be specific, please?

[@beerman204]

He is a performer. Sounding like you know it all is different than knowing it all.

[@RogerOnTheRight]

Once again, where is he wrong? Please be specific. Simply calling him a comedian adds zero value to understanding.

[@vicmarx-sl5xz]

These Americans live in their own dream world, they see things happening in other countries, but fail to see that they are already there.

[@danielplainview926]

To counter the oil problem; China is developing the silk road, which, in theory, allows roads, shipping ports, and railroads to transport energy to multiple spots throughout China. A massive undertaking indeed with plenty of problems.

[@அவானிஉயர்ந்தது]

It’s US’s nightmare and doing everything to stop it. Sadly Europe, especially Germany, let US took over and lead them into disaster

[@pamelahomeyer748]

30 of those bridges have already collapsed because of corruption

[@tonysu8860]

What has the 3 (and now possibly an additional northern) silk roads modern China proposes got to do with China's oil problems? As of today, China's oil and gas infrastructure is nearly non-existent. China largely depends on coal for its energy needs and imports what it can't produce. China is building as much Green source energy as it can, but as large as those efforts are, are hardly making a dent in China's overall needs. Hardly any pipelines connect Russia's oil fields to China, I think there might be one slow capacity line and AFAIK doesn't lead to any manufacturing center in China so has to be transported further once in China. China hardly has any oil tanker ships and is buying as many decommissioned and near decommissioned ships as it can. Oil and gas is not transported efficiently or economically by road or railroad, and China has little or no port capacity to support oil and gas.

[@rakshit8570]

Thats another reason bcz till now no study of economical value is done on that and china is taking huge debts for that and for last India is still in b/w that's why US is betting on india.

[@ebadd3468]

Inflation is already here . . . and not going away anytime soon. China real estate market collapse, draught and food shortages. Maybe in twenty yrs the silk could be completely, but china will run out of money long before then.

[@dodiaguswandi5828]

China have long history. I bet US will likely gone first seeing how seperated they are now. From top to bottom.

[@leelhasa6294]

China's Communist Party has a short history of only seventy years, and it's been estimated as many as 40 million Chinese died under Mao's great leap and one million Tibetan's died in its invasion of Tibet. This regime fosters heavy surveillance; no freedom, re-education camps; slavery and cultural genocide (Uyghur, Tibetan, Chinese - Falun Gong). So whilst China may project a form of unity that suggests its stronger than the US, it is governed by a system of tight control and oppression. If say, China were more free and democratic - like Taiwan - perhaps it would be more flexible and not liable to collapse under its own authoritarian weight.

[@dodiaguswandi5828]

@@leelhasa6294 its true, but they survived. US in the other side acting like a cowboy attacking everybody who doesn’t suited them. China never attack Iraq for fake weapons issue, forcing democracy and then leave them behind after

[@finlybenyunes8385]

SEPARATED

[@michaelgonzalez7240]

The world has a better chance of being better if we learn to cooperate with each other.

[@cjyoung4080]

haha... ever heard roman and carthage? hope u know which one america is... inheriting the one of many what was once great empires once again

[@Cyberium]

Not with oligarchs being our politicians, or behind the ones who're not.

[@talisikid1618]

Utopian bs. Human nature will never allow that. Never. In the real world, conflict is normalized. The Pax Americana kept conflict low in comparison to most of human history. Now that antiAmerican types are getting their wish with a multipolar world, that will not be true anymore. More people will die in wars. Fact of life. That’s the natural flow of history.

[@KuangWen0]

Peter Zeihan: Gordon G. Chang is my teacher in university. Gordon G. Chang Is one of those most distinguished intellectuals in the world.

[@britcat7780]

Interesting contrarian view. Most points not well evidenced. But the key observation that China is dependent on oil imports mostly from the Middle East and that such imports are easily interdicted both by US surface and submarine forces was well taken. In addition, China has an export based economy that would be shut down globally by the US Navy. China is building a navy but it is short on substantial ships and submarines and it takes decades to build a navy that is actually effective, well-trained, and has first-rate battle tactics.

[@relicofgold]

The USA has them on the navy, but China is circumventing all of that. The Belt and Road Initiative is providing them all forms of trade transport via land. They have a base in Djibouti, Sri Lanka, and many others in places people are totally unaware of......yet. Pakistan is in their hip pocket because India is against China and Pakistan is against India. When TSHTF, China is prepared. They can get all the energy they'll ever need from Russia.

[@Western_Decline]

Dig a little deeper. Only 20% of its energy mix is oil & gas. It's mostly coal. US allies in East Asia are actually far more dependent on imported energy. Is the US just gonna "block Malacca"? Western brains are not very developed. Too much nationalism, not enough thinking. This is why West is crushed by Russia on energy.

[@haydonditchburn2194]

My oh my, you are so easily led.. As an ex military man, all I can say is "Never underestimate your enemy"

[@icet6665]

Hold on a minute... The US can have the best army in the world but couldn't win the Gulf War, Vietnam wars or even be successful in Afghanistand and you guys want to fight with a army which is bigger than yours?

[@relicofgold]

Nonsense. The Belt and Road project is being built for a reason: Facilitating trade. And the Russians will sell them all the energy they need. The US may not be able to shut down their trade via the sea because of guided missiles. Battleships and carriers are sitting ducks to guided missiles, so the Navy itself is not nearly as important as it once was. They can hit a destroyer from hundreds of miles away spot on with a guided missile. Subs are still very important though and the US has the edge there as of now.

[@joesomebody3365]

Interesting lecture and explaination.

[@boypisonetpisonet981]

he forgot about the historic drought plaguing china right now, massive blackouts in major cities.

[@the11382]

Leaves me wondering if the Mandate of Heaven is ever going to be lost.

[@ALWH1314]

Well, China has been around for five thousand years, I think I’ll live long enough to see China in existence next decade.

[@craigkdillon]

I agree with Peter Zeihan's basic analysis of the problems China is facing. In fact, in some areas, I think he might be understating them. However, for me, his analysis falls short because -- IF China collapses -- we have some very serious questions that our leaders need to know the answer to. 1. What will be the nature of the collapse? Will it be limited to financial/economic collapse. Like the US system collapsed during the Great Depression & Dust Bowl, but our political system wasn't fazed. Or, will the collapse be more like the fall of the Soviet Union, where the center failed, and the constituent parts split off. China has had several periods where that has happened. 2. If the political center fails, and China breaks into multiple parts -- who would rule those parts? What kind of political system might they adopt? Will any be pro-US, or pro-west? Will they be war-like, or accommodating? How should the US navigate that situation? What are the threats, risks, and opportunities that we may face? 3. What role would the PLA play in the change of regime? Especially if the center holds. 4. Can the center hold? Is that even a possibility? 5. What other ways can China collapse besides military coup, failure of center, and financial/economic? 6. Can the process of collapse cause a war to break out? If so, who would be the enemy? India? Taiwan? someone else? I have way more questions. This is what I would like to see analyzed. Concluding that China will fail is really low hanging fruit, and doesn't take much to understand that. A few years ago, it was prescient. Now, its old news. C'mon Peter, put on your thinking hat, and do some real analysis. We need it now.

[@nlmw]

If you have lived in China for any length of time, you can understand how ridiculous this speech is. You'll also realize that the chances of what you've listed happening are almost zero. So don't worry about what can't happen.

[@craigkdillon]

@@nlmw I understand that to someone inside the system, that the CCP and Xi would appear to be all powerful. But, the fundamentals are there. The current system is unsustainable -- and therefore must end. The only question is when and how? Now, when a huge country like China declines, it may take decades to end. Rome started declining in the 4th Century, but it took almost 200 years for it to finally end. I don't think China will collapse tomorrow, though it might. It could go on for decades more. But, if it does, it will be increasingly isolated -- like a gargantuan North Korea.

[@chunkailau2448]

@@nlmw Years ago Zhinese idiots were confident the fast pace of the Zhinese economic growth will persist for a long time and surpassing the USA was just a matter of time. Everything was so rosy until it suddenly became not. Brace yourself for the imminent demographic disaster, no country is bailing you out this time.

[@hughmungus2760]

given current social trends in china, a populist modi/putin style conservative nationalist revolution will replace the technocratic CCP, it will be just as authoritarian as the CCP but with a far more rightwing bent.

[@SprezzaturaLifestyle]

@@nlmw Collapses happen suddenly. The ancient romans also had an economic high and people were living a good life just until the day the collapse started out of nowhere.

[@evelynn_teoh]

would love to see Peter Zeihan debating Martin Jacques!

[@michaeldobson107]

That would be a slaughter. Peter could be folding laundry and win that debate. lol.

[@Fr.VeniceLAI]

There are many CPC supporter that info, that China is already the Richest and Most Wealthiest Country in the World, as well the MOST POWERFUL Country in the World, all countries will kow-tow to China.

[@The2ndavepete]

@@Fr.VeniceLAI Really? Nancy Pelosi took a dump in Taiwan and China wiped her butt without any ramifications? They don't seem that powerful to us mere mortals...just saying

[@obcane3072]

@@Fr.VeniceLAI China imports 70% of food and energy. They have no Navy that can ensure delivery. A naval blockade in Indian Ocean will destroy China. What do you propose China can do in response?

[@michaeldobson107]

@@Fr.VeniceLAI *There are many CPC supporter that info* That is CCP, not CPC. And that is false. *that China is already the Richest and Most Wealthiest Country in the World* That is false. *as well the MOST POWERFUL Country in the World* That is false. *all countries will kow-tow to China.* That is false. Well, thanks for playing!

[@bobbybob3865]

A look into what made America great--at least in the later part of the eighteenth century--can be found in the book Team of Rivals by Doris Kearns Goodwin. The book says that newly-elected President Abraham Lincoln CHOSE to have cabinet members and other advisors with a variety of views, often in sharp conflict to his own. While Abraham Lincoln often had to make very difficult decisions, he did so with a broad knowledge of many of the factors involved.

[@speedmastermarkiii]

Abraham Lincoln wasn't even alive in the 18th century.

[@GrenvilleP710]

America was not Great until the end of the 19th century at the earliest. Greatness before that rested entirely on the British ...

[@weatherphobia]

@@speedmastermarkiii Yeah, I was about to say.

[@tracesmith4966]

Common sense is what it takes to raise a child,a household and a safe and furnishing neighborhood. Greed and goverment criminal greed is the downfall of any country. Flood and fire seems to be the least of the world ending predictions. Greed and stupid men..... THAT IS THE END that's coming.

[@MachinecoMachines]

@@speedmastermarkiii He meant to say during the 1800's and THAT makes sense !

[@rna8arnold]

What's funny about the original Silk Road - that was built by the Arab merchants not the Chinese. China stayed isolated for centuries but the Arab (and some Jewish) merchants saw the goods China had and exported them from China to Europe via both sea and overland routes. Both the Chinese and Europeans never met each other (not until the 1800's) only the Arabs merchants were the middle men. Also don't forget Marco Polo was a merchant like his father and probably heard of China from the Arab merchants his father did business with.

[@yliang1688]

Yes, , Just another load of anti-China rhetoric. Where's the in depth analysis to support his thesis? Did he study history in school?

[@zjeee]

Why is it anti-China though? Is every opinion that's not signed off by the CCP anti-China?

[@thomas1699]

This man seems to be well informed on important issues. My question is this: why is the US spending money it does not have, in some of the same ways China does???

[@iankuah8606]

Unlike the Chinese Yuan the US Dollar is the world's reserve currency and the Fed can print and print USD to pay off debt anywhere, anytime. It is a unique phenomenon called 'exorbitant privilege' and is why the Euro or any other currency can never rival the USD.

[@roymadison5686]

It's very near the end of the fiat monetary system. They all go bust with a hyper inflationary sprint and then collaspe. We are in the pre sprint stage . ITS SPEND BABY SPEND BEFORE THE COLLASPE. I hear before the year is out the "FED" is going to shift the "dollar" to a "CBDC"( central bank digital currency). This to stave off the inevitable.

[@davidskiff3083]

I love watching people who don't understand Finance flail away about the end of this or that country and we are soon going to return to the barter system. Ranks right up there with some of the skits from Lucille Ball, and just as fresh

[@thomas1699]

@@davidskiff3083 go ahead then: clear things up for us poor ignorant souls

[@thomas1699]

Standing by for you to enlighten us.

[@TheLoyalOfficer]

Evergrande 2022 = Lehman Brothers 2008

[@chavian0]

It's already bigger than Evergrande - other mega developers are also falling now. GG, China, you played yourself!

[@TheLoyalOfficer]

@@chavian0 Yeah, I just like to use Evergrande as a kind of catch-all term for how F'd China is. So I agree with you.

[@dachuanlu4189]

China will always survive in this way or that. Don't worry.

[@konstantinbush295]

China: 4000 years of civilization, 17 historical periods Peter Zeihan: China will not last this decade 🤣🤣🤣

[@FLAC2023]

Exactly.... this guy is a complete idiox...he gets paid to promote this nonsense... hilarious 😂

[@Victor-ov7hw]

I thought the same thing

[@LOLLOL-kg4dz]

thats why all this western people makes me laugh so hard ,they dont understand at all about china , not even 1% 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@alexrog1978]

Both Peter Zeihan and George Friedman are social engineers much more than analysts. They create an US-centric version of possible future and attempt to sell it as the only possible one.

[@talisikid1618]

Not true. They tell you the truth but you can’t handle the truth. Europe will probably survive current changes. US definitely will. Russia has a problem. They have a very small economy, a small population, health issues, and demographic problems. None bode well for the future. Three of the four likely poles in the new world order are on their borders and have cultures and religious views counter to Russian heritage and traditions. Those new civilizational powers have 30 times Russia’s population. So, who’s in the jam actually?

[@iancooper9278]

I am not sure about that. I watched another geopolitical person discussing Zeihan and he did not disagree with him. He made a few observations regarding small disagreements, but basically agreed with Zeihan

[@horus4862]

I don't agree with his conclusions but it was a great lecture. His maps don't include the Power of Siberia Pipeline. Why can't china get all their energy needs from Russia? Why does Zeihan make it sound like China is isolated? Remember the BRICS nation could just form their own trading block, am I tripping or is there a lot of factors not being addressed here.

[@gl4re]

Thats the thing, they are not isolated. So same as you I dont get this part as well.

[@koen8993]

The rough argument would be that this is reliant on Western expertise keeping Russian oil running and America patrolling the seas to protect international shipping. Russia might be unable to keep their oil plants running or lack refining capabilities and China does not have the naval capabilities to extend to international shipping waters. Zeihan's argument in general comes down to the likely collapse or at least drastic reduction of the world's highly globalized economy.

[@haotiansu5118]

I consider this professor is just talking about crap and making a joke in front of his students. I feel truly sorry that the students were blinded by a "professor". It appears that there are "professors" everywhere not only in China.

[@Nick-rr3pv]

Seriously, BRICS? Brazil, South Africa, India and Russia are gonna replace EU and US as main chinese markets? What drugs are you talking?

[@oyugilinus1503]

@@koen8993 this idea that China lacks the capability or technology to do certain things is wildly misinformed given their current states. From the guys who can manufacture nearly anything existing in the world, can set up a space station after being denied access to the ISS, can disrupt international financial markets etc. I think many people underestimate China's capabilities and global influence.

[@mac571000]

If Americans believe what he said then don’t need to worry about China as a competitor of us. Just leave it alone or as your own words , let it fall.

[@peterwarner553]

I believe China won't collapse but by the end of the decade will go into an extended perhaps permanent period of stagnation.

[@Western_Decline]

It's projected to urbanize another 200 million + people. That's larger than the entire workforce of Japan.

[@willchristie2650]

@@Western_Decline China is urbanizing the population because they are much easier to control and brainwash when they are in large cities instead of spread all across the landscape of a huge geographical area. The goal is CONTROL.

[@deku812]

@@Western_Decline The bigger issue is demography. urbanzing a bunch of retirees is pointless. The housing property bubble there is also vastly underreported. So yeah, I guess they can throw villagers into those unfinished homes but what will they be doing when the external environment for exports is no longer like the 1990s, internal consumption is weak and you have hundreds of millions of retirees by 2030, also incidentally more people than the workforce of Japan.

[@redyellow4699]

We have heard about collapse of China many decades ago. China should do the opposite of what the West says as the rise of China will take over all high-profit industries from the West.

[@deku812]

@@redyellow4699 you have maybe , but I haven't heard anything. And a lot of the more recent predictions particularly the high indebtedness of local authorities, cronyism and corruption in government and the housing property bubble have come true, and it probably just takes time for it to play out or compound into a major crisis. So far the CCP is just papering them over. Besides demographics don't lie. People grow old and become unproductive then they die.

[@traingofast]

China imports a large percentage of nearly all commodities to keep its factories running. They use as much oil as the US but need to import 75 to 80% of it. USA imports only about 25% of its oil and most comes from Canada and Mexico. To beat China in a war the adversary only needs to sink the commodity ships going to China, then their economy stops, along with their ability to wage war. That's why the US has over 140 submarines and is building the fleet out to nearly 200 subs.

[@waterfcalllane]

I may be all wet here, but doesn't (or couldn't) China get plenty of fuel overland or by truck, train, or pipeline, from Russia?

[@hughmungus2760]

by the 2050s overland pipelines and chinese efforts to build renewables will make that more or less a non-issue. the US has less than 30 years to start WW3 or it will just lose.

[@oldtimered7503]

@@waterfcalllane Russia may think twice about fueling the biggest military threat it faces as a neighbor. when China rolls in with a million or more well armed soldiers and confiscates the ol wells with Russian fuel driving the Chinese military vehicles that thought could keep a Russian leader here and there up at night. Pray for the USA we are now our worst enemy because the dem party is our communist neighbor, the enemy within.

[@HerfingPug]

Brilliant analysis. Thank you.

[@victorsong8416]

To a complete moron, everything seems to be brilliant...

[@thomaschoo337]

Peter Zeihan, Why are you not telling the world the hard truth of the US and EU economy now?

[@parentingbythebooks]

Interesting video!

[@allthingshumanities5328]

Thanks Arthur! I’m looking to cover a range of humanities and social sciences on this channel :) do you enjoy politics?

[@parentingbythebooks]

@@allthingshumanities5328 I've noticed! I love the fresh perspectives you're bringing. I must say I've never really bothered with politics because I thought I wouldn't be interested. But I looked into Peter Zeihan a bit after the video and geopolitics seems like something I'd enjoy diving into.

[@qqx154]

So you can sleep better? It's BS!! See his video's debunked by Nathan Rich.

[@charleshixon1458]

I suspect the Chinese economy will adjust similarly to how the United States did moving from an industrial producer to a consumer industry with service, tech and financial sectors. The biggest challenge for them will be handling this transition without unemployment going over 10%. 10% of 2 billion is a lot of angry people, especially people who used to have jobs that permitted savings and wealth gain. Compared to how it is for the "lower" industries in the US where large sectors of employed workers are in stagnated wage gains that can't keep up with the rising costs of living. A cost that is fueled by the huge wealth gains many Americans can make in other sectors (think Walmart employee vs Developer both living in San Francisco). Still, it seems pretty obvious that they are looking to expand their export markets to Africa in hopes that they can keep the industrial sector going as well as possible and employ as many factory workers as possible. They have a lot of central control of their economy and the leaders are fairly serious about managing their countries growth and less preoccupied with Reality TV Show style politics like we have here in the US. I don't think it will be a smooth path, but I don't see the train derailing. *edit After looking at recent Chinese leadership and attitude, it looks like they are going to try to be more towards North Korean like isolation and posturing. This is not a good hallmark for successful economic gains.

[@andyw_uk74]

Unlikely. China's rapidly-declining demographics preclude it from ever becoming an internal consumer-based economy. They aren't going to have much of an export market either, to Africa or anywhere else, due to lockdowns crushing their manufacturing capacity. Throw in their housing crisis and banking liquidity crisis, and by 2050, China will likely be back to farming rice paddies with a few hundred million people. And that's, as Peter Zeihan likes to say, "if nothing else goes wrong" (such as a major regional war or somebody preventing oil getting to China through the Strait of Malacca). China cannot exist as an industrialised nation without US shipping guarantees.

[@redyellow4699]

The US is far away from the world market, The Euro-Asian continent. Without WW1 and WW2, It could not be world factory. So losing industrial producer position to China is a normal thing as it is not competitive regarding the price. China is close to the world market and has complete supply chain, thus making everything the cheapest in the world.

[@charleshixon1458]

@@andyw_uk74 Those are transitory issues and while they may cause bad years, they aren’t fundamentals.

[@Western_Decline]

@@andyw_uk74 “rapidly declining”, care to quantify that? OMG China will only have 1.3 billion by 2040!!!! How will they stay powerful?!?! Western brain is not very big. It enjoys simple conclusions.

[@armands3863]

Good luck transitioning to services and consuming when your population make 300$ on average, and your economy is based on being cheap labor hands for the rest of the world .it's like saying france could go from a service economy to an industry economy. I lived in china for the biggest part of my life and I cant tell you you dont understand how economy works here and the mindset . The train is already derailing hard.

[@louaceveu1925]

I have more confidence in a system that saves and invests than in a system that borrows and spends.

[@dominiquecharriere1285]

Peter is like those guys in France and the UK in 1946 who thought they could keep their colonial empires!

[@edcrane4438]

Well it sounds reasonable,the biggest problem I have with what was said is it’s what I want to hear.

[@Thephilpw99]

No the biggest problem is why China didn't collapse like 30 years ago. Because in my memory, China was in a much worse shape 30 years ago.

[@wowyzaoy]

this guy reminds me of that con man from the simpsons

[@jfyhou]

wow. First time seeing a western person who really understands China. Most western "China experts" are clueless.

[@johnkoh5207]

Ask if PZ knows "we lie, we cheat and we steal"??

[@tanyc2703]

why China will not last this decade? they have last for 5000 years.

[@douglasdunn6015]

If this guy is praised for any idea he has , we're doomed. His intellectual capacity is void.

[@mysterioanonymous3206]

Dude was a Stratfor analyst, he's no slouch... while I don't agree with everything, he makes some very good points, and if you look at his other stuff you will realise that he's very data driven in his analysis, although it may not be obvious from this excerpt.

[@theodoremccarthy4438]

My concern with Peter’s position that the collapse of the PRC is inevitable is that the CCP has a governance model in neighboring states which successfully ensured regime survival despite widespread famine and immiseration: Stalinism. Both the USSR and the DPRK survived widespread famines by implementing totalitarian cults of personality. It shouldn’t surprise us if China goes the same route.

[@bepitan]

so at best ccp will be in firm control of a much weakened and reduced china?

[@1paris1942]

He has said that that is definitely one possibility.

[@gigacanno750]

Unsure about the USSR comparison, but unlike the majority of people in North Korea, people in China usually have information that shows that the outside world isn't as bad as it seems.

[@hardrada3534]

The issue is that the Chinese know wealth, and losing something is an entirely different beast to never having it.

[@cungcung5042]

PRC is not like USSR and DPRK. They choose the path of economic development and friendly multilateral relation. That's where their softpower come from. In the past when they are still poor and backward, PRC did not let foreign powers to dictate their policy, so it'll be harder for the foreign power to do it to them now. China has a plan to strengthen their country even further and would avoid unnecessary conflict for the next 10 years. At that time, China won't be hesitate to retake Taiwan despite of US intervention.

[@eastwesttalkshow6129]

Thank you All Things Humanities. Your warn or curse alerts us and makes us do better to survive this decade. Thanks.

[@zootsoot2006]

Not until you get rid of the current leadership. Useless fools.

[@numinuecooper9975]

China is minding her business and working hard by building up the world and lifting countries up higher heights.

[@russmarkham2197]

This is a simplistic analysis. China will still be around in 30 years. Yes, China has a lot of problems. The economy is more fragile now. The population will suffer. The population might decrease. But that's the beauty of a dictatorship. The suffering of poor individuals is subsidiary to the survival of the state. China is a long way from being a failed state. China can and will flex its growing military might and cause a lot of problems in SE Asia and the world.

[@wingkeungkong415]

Don't speak nonsense Chinese citizen enjoy the best living standard in its history now

[@gocybertruck8189]

China and the US are so economically integrated that whatever happens to one will have a profound impact on the other, as well as the rest of the world. Maintaining this balance of power is crucial.

[@thubandra963]

That's a fact! Everything we have is made out of Chinsesium.

[@lalodaniels1388]

I remember reading a book back in 2006 about how China would not last that decade. I don't understand the appeal to this kind of fantasy fiction.

[@levelazn]

its written to satisfy white supremacy appetite

[@davvi-zl7ro]

I see the opposite with NATO slowly backing out on the USA, America will be standing alone

[@R.-.]

The world is dependent on China for manufactured goods so if China's economy ceases up, the rest of the world will suffer from massive shortages. The cost of reversing offshoring is often more than if we'd just kept local manufacturing going.

[@yhynsync]

@John Chen then why dont they move everything all out of China? No infrastrusture can be better in the world then China has

[@b199er]

@John Chen Vietnam is China's natural ally, they'll continue to drift closer to China. It would take a lot longer than 3 years for India to build up the equivalent manufacturing base that China has to supply the West. Also, I know the West (or specifically the Anglo countries) have been pinning their hopes on making India their new China. However, one must consider for a moment that India has her own direction. Any Western deal with India will have to seriously take into account the interests of 1.4 billion people. So things won't be as simple as India hitting pause on their balanced economic development, and doing everything it can to save the West. No doubt the West has put a lot of effort in the past 20 years to position things in a way to increase the odds of the West winning the cold war. Alas, it's proving the West has sacrificed a lot in this battle. Humanity would've been a lot better off had the West embraced China's rise, respected that they have their own non-Western values & culture. Instead the West, in particular the US has a problematic model which dictates that it must be No 1. in the tech tree. the top stone in the pyramid. However it only has 350 million, mostly poorly educated people suffering from a great deal of physical and mental health issues, drug addiction, mass shootings, and single-parent children. It's rather arrogant for a nation to presume that they're the only ones worthy of furthering humanity, when they reached their peak over 50 years ago when they landed on the Moon. Since then, their monopoly of corporations have been been artificially putting the brakes on technological innovation in order to control their people, and by extension the world.

[@moehoward8691]

How about having the rest of the world starts to manufacture some things?

[@tommyl3207]

In a few years, all that china makes could and would be made somewhere else.

[@troycarpenter3675]

The cost of independence is always high and always worth it

[@Robc2007]

nah, very simplistic ideas. I remember a book 2 decades ago called the coming collapse of China. What happened is they adapted. Now there are lots of problems in China and they dont have many friends but still countries continue doing business with them. German companies continue to invest huge sums, western banks still deepening ties. The biggest issues are demographic, the population is getting old and the young are less commited than prior generations

[@ramonalejano671]

He raised valid points. He did not mention that there are forces breaking down the US way of life. Whichever system fails 1st will by default makes the other the winner.

[@Boris82much]

And that's what scares me.

[@112deeps]

Because the USA is democracy It will survive the breaking USA forces internally and externally - look back at US history how many times the Breaking USA forces attempted to destroy the Union.... The next 10 years will be hard for all countries China is unlikely to survive the Demographic collapse of an unimaginable scale. this Decade is the Tipping point

[@vk2ig]

Home-grown, made in the good ol' USA forces, too. As an outsider, I look at the USA and see a bunch of people who hate each other but don't have the guts to do anything about it.

[@Borzoi86]

Marxists in control of both system now seek only to make bloody sure only they stay (forever) in power. The critical error in the USA (200+ years ago) was not to incorporate robust Term Limits in our Constitution. Now we're reaping the results of lifelong blood suckers in our federal government system.

[@re2399]

Well said, your very insightful to state what is not right in the face of many stupid, oblivious people. There are most certainly forces which are most definitely communist chinese moles as well as other nefarious frenemies that are currently & actively undermining the U.S. population.

[@robc8468]

A whole lot of turmoil in China today incuding their president who is rummored under house arrest and a 50 mile PLA military convoy headed into Beijing. The real question with their housing and banking collapse along with a covid lockdown and large manufacturing slowdown I would ask if China has 10 weeks left under its current leadership.

[@peternjoyce]

"I would ask if China has 10 weeks left under its current leadership" ooh...wanna bet a case of Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon ? We will get back here by the end of this year to see if that happened. I would Fedex them to the address of your choice if you are right.

[@bnx200]

Over time, China will become less dependent on oil, as they build more electric vehicles. China is currently building more EVs than the rest of the world combined.

[@samwacker5075]

You do realise that oil is used for a variety of applications and products and not just as a fuel for automobiles? You must also realise that China generates most of its electricity from coal - and it actually imports coal.

[@bnx200]

@@samwacker5075 A significant percent of oil is used for transportation. China is also investing massive amounts of money into wind, solar, and nuclear energy.

[@samwacker5075]

@@bnx200 Agreed on investment but define "massive amounts of money" . Besides this energy diversification is not helping the current situation with enforced reductions in electricity usage.

[@erikmerckx2958]

I can't say I found the presentation to be very thorough and he is needlessly dramatic. China has 26% of the world's reserves of Rare Earth Elements and produces 80% of the world's supply. Those metals are needed for high technology equipment (used in renewable energy - and China essentially owns solar panels -, military equipment and more). If you only look at hydrocarbon, it all looks really simple. Nearly 20% of the USA's imports come from China. It would be devastating for the USA (and the world in general) if China did not last the decade. It's also very silly to consider the western world as being stable unlike China as it regularly goes through crises, which occurred as recently as 2008 when China provided support. China as a country is going to keep enduring, and will probably do so for as long as civilization exists, but sure it will undoubtedly face crises, changes and we can expect decline due to some of its policies.

[@Thephilpw99]

Yup, and the crisis of pork was already gone, and he still brought it up. Seems he cannot keep his data updated. Also, he mentioned that if China let go of the lock down, there will be "4 million Chinese death", which almost feels like a praise to the Chinese government.

[@Kurol12345]

The people of China have the same aspirations as most people in the world but the CCP is no better than hitler or stalin or putin. We are waiting for these tyrants to fall and biden to go.

[@Thephilpw99]

@@Kurol12345 Just ask yourself a question, "Why China is the only nation that grew their GDP 4 times since 1990?" Yeah, I get why you don't like CCP, but who led China into today's prosperity, while all other countries failed?

[@Kurol12345]

@@Thephilpw99 Much of China's prosperity is due to big corporates in the west taking jobs to China. Jefferson said Liberty without the law breeds anarchy. The law without liberty breeds tyranny

[@godofsounds]

Peter Zeihan is most probably correct but the US must be on guard and have to act correctly and strategically to maintain that global leadership.

[@johnteets2921]

What good is "American leadership" doing for the people who have to live in the collapsing community which the US has become ?

[@godofsounds]

​@@johnteets2921 The US is not collapsing. All countries and systems have problems. Obviously, the US can and does address well its problems. The expectations are just bigger compared to the expectations of other peoples from other countries with a lot more problems. That's why the world still listens to and follows the US as the global leader. For the most part the US established this international rules based order that also benefited China so well. China now wants to supplant and replace the global leadership of the US. But the alternative offered by China is a total scam geared to make all its billion plus population very wealthy even if other countries become poor or other nations go hungry. Now the US is making the moves that will eventually result to a checkmated China and that is good for the world and humanity.

[@bluegregory6239]

Yes, the USA needs to get its shit together and unify. Like Lincoln said, we will only destroy ourselves from within. Unfortunately, that is precisely what we seem to be doing. Time for Americans to rally together.

[@AhmedAdly11]

Actually, the Chinese are now engaged with Asia, which is the world's largest market. Also, the Chinese are aware of their weaknesses and have no illusions about them. Their goal is to become a moderately modern society by 2050

[@Pdotta1]

A crowd-pleasing talk for sure 😂. However Peter doesn’t understand China - at all. A Westerner can take predictive stabs on western country and culture issues and get some right even if just by luck. But his intuition makes his China predictions worse than random. So don’t take this too seriously.

[@levelazn]

Can’t place too much faith on ones opinion if he/she doesn’t speak Chinese or been to China

[@dannyboy_vtc8980]

Nothing to do with knowing mandarin or been to china, they are not some aliens, real scholars will have the right sources. The thing is he's wrong with everything he says, same he was saying for ukraine a month after the start of the invasion, or for the us, he's not an academic, a scholar, he's a manipulator trying to drive his daily ageda home and will bend or neglect or misinterpret facts in what ever way suits him. He knows more than both of you about the real state of chinese economy tho, but doesn't mean he'll ever even try to present or find real facts i bet besides his books and lectures his main income comes from the market manipulations like all of that sort of people, i called him on it on his channel many times when he did some topic i knew directly some insights and seen his bs in the first minute, he's always one dimensional in his "predictions"

[@pamelahomeyer748]

Chinese economy will collapse first. The people will not die in those numbers but they will die from mismanagement and they already are both from floods and from high heat. People in China are used to a difficult life and they will survive for the most part. But China as we know it will collapse

[@TomcoAV]

Agreed It is a mess over there and yes in retrospect / Monday morning quarterbacking China probably made / is making a mistake being so strict on the lock downs. Based on my personal experience in working with and importing from Chinese companies during this period I disagree with his prediction. To propose that their strict Covid control approach is going to be the cause of their complete demise is pretty far out there...Time will tell.

[@tonysu8860]

This kind of comment holds little water. Looking at publicly available facts and events in China plus evaluating should not require any "understanding" of China. If anything, it's the people "within the system" in China who can't and don't understand what they are looking at because their "understanding" is limited to CCP policy. Solving problems like China's banking problems, debt problems, over reliance on RE development to build wealth, lack of a Covid solution other than lockdowns providing food and energy to the people are among the things that can and should be solved by science first, and political philosophy second. The problems are impersonal and doesn't matter if the problem is in the US or China, if the resources to solve the problem are similar, then the solutions in either country should be similar.

[@qqx154]

Zeihan has spoken to Gordon Chan. The writer of Coming collapse of China. Two decades ago. 😁

[@OMFangdango]

So he’s been wrong for 20 years? What’s another 10 then…

[@kamalyandluri4298]

@@OMFangdango I'm seeing this "collapse of China" From 80s. Not a single time it came true

[@michaeldobson107]

@Peter Archs Zeihan has spoken to a hundred people. What's your point?

[@michaeldobson107]

@@OMFangdango He correctly predicted the invasion of the Ukraine (to the year) back in 2015, among other things. Try again.

[@OMFangdango]

@MichaelDobson A broken clock is right twice a day. What’s your point? Lol

[@cugelchannel4733]

00:07 I don't know why nobody has commented on 19th Century cartoonist Thomas Nast's eerily accurate picture of America 100 years later! 😆

[@downtownbrown50]

He did not even talk about investment on the American economy by CHina like pork processing companies, and farm real estate or land near Air Force and other military installations.

[@hxy8586]

I have a feeling about him being more as an entertainer rather than a serious analyst. His facts align with how an average Westerner would feel, but sadly no serious, credible evidence was presented. As a Chinese living in the US who never liked Xi from day 1, I'd say his argument that Xi's running a one-man-show is far from how it appears as long as one reads the latest drafts of every Five Year Plan (not sure how many people do when they think about or study China). Political opinions aside, those drafts were very well written, carefully thought out, and the policies were designed around them. I wish US had a long-term strategy like that. The Shanghai lockdown was a total mess, and the annoyance with all the over-reactive COVID precautions is taking its tolls, but no more serious lockdowns happened since, so his argument on a long-term supply chain issue was flawed to say the least. Personally I'd guess that Xi wanted political gains rather than health gains by over-reacting to COVID, just like how Trump wanted political gains rather than health gains by under-reacting to COVID; both, imho are total disasters. When you see US from outside, you'd see mostly crazy divided parties and idea gaps amongst people, mass shootings, crazy inflation, etc. Same with China. Things appear a lot worse over the news than they actually are. Economy this year is crap in China so far for various reasons, but I feel that China's economy is taking the time shifting for the better. Think South Korea 1997 only less bad. What really makes or breaks is the tech war with US in the coming decade -- if China can pull this off then there's the China Century (or big war with US) up ahead, if not then China doesn't even stand a chance. As a Chinese I wish the best for China (not Xi) emotionally, but for US/Western audience here, I'd say that the tech war was the right move only a tad bit too late (although there's really nothing wrong with Huawei security). There's very little the US can (or need) to do here; it's mostly just wait and see if China can catch up with the key technologies, mostly chips and softwares. Honestly China is the hardworking one here (which I truly respect), but how Xi controls the nation worries me greatly. Think Germany 1933. I'm never pro-CCP (I feel that I have to say this since trolls think I'm pro-CCP whenever I say things even just a little less anti-China), but as someone bilingual living in the US but also follow China closely I feel the need even just to share a little bit of what I see. A decade ago people were talking about the Thucydides Trap, and today we're already in it. This is bad for everyone, and even worse if there's misunderstanding and misjudgment. Think Europe 1914.

[@aone2476]

Is there much truth to birth rates in China and how it is highly over populated with the older generation. I have heard this serious concern for the future.

[@re2399]

If this your honest opinion as a non-pro communist chinese then I respect it. But since the communist chinese party has gained so much from its allowance of western capitalism and clearly taken advantage to this day it is clear where the party of the communist chinese want to take China to in the future. When the communist chinese created policies to insert itself & advance itself under the guise of peaceful people being sent to Western countries around the world to study and take back to the motherland. Well that is Not something that the World takes lightly when a stranger pretends to play posom and is only there for nefarious reasons. Most people have no problem with the common chinese hard workers. But their communist central authoritarian ruling is going to hurt the chinese people when it comes to flexing its military and potentially getting the world into a WWIII which everyone will loose badly. China will put itself in a bad standing in the world by doing so. That is why it's critical that this communist government be reigned in as its already shown its disguised intentions.

[@timadamson3378]

I've read several of his books over the past decade, and somehow he's been right in the majority of his projections.

[@colors6692]

Name one.

[@HavendaleBlvd80]

Which books?

[@timadamson3378]

So me being able to name a book seems significant to you? I read his first three. You can look up the names if you really want to. The main things he seemed to predict pretty accurately were the 1) breakup of the post-war consensus in which the United States promised to defend much of the world in exchange for global free markets and 2) economic instability and conflict caused primarily by demographic decline, i.e., aging, in many regions of the world.

[@hughmungus2760]

he's been dead wrong on china though.

[@scottperry7311]

China will last a decade, but what shape China will be in is the question. While there are many comments here that have a negative view of Zeihan argument as not true and not fact based, my criticism of his argument is that it was far from complete. There are a lot more issues that China is facing than just Xi, Covid, and Oil. First is that China has become hostile to many nations with its Wolf Warrior Diplomacy, that's not good for trade, and it also causing the entire region to militarize. Second is the current economic downturn that will have long term negative implications for China's economic growth and with it, its stability. Third is it aging demographics of China. Fourth, is its Water security issue. Fifth is its massive pollution problem which will have long term negative consequences for the Chinese people for decades, Sixth is the poor quality of Chinese infrastructure and buildings, with all the new construction over the last thirty years, the cycle of buildings coming to a critical phase of there age is starting and will continue to grow for the next 30 years, which may mean China will have to rebuild a significant part of it infrastructure and housing sooner than most industrialized nations do to their poor building quality. Seven is the regression of China back towards the ideals under Mao, which is not only wasteful but which will stifle innovation. On that note is number eight, the suppression of private business and business leaders such as Jack Ma in China and the increasing state control of industry there either directly or by subsidies which are unsustainable. While this has always been a problem it is getting more severe now. Add to this the issues Zeihan brings up and quite a few more that are facing China and you can see that China's future is not as bright as it has been for the last 30 years. Many nations on earth face quite a few of the same issues to one or another degree, and China still has some significant advantages, but its pretty certain that China prosperity, economy, and influence are facing an uncertain and most likely declining future, or rebalancing to a new normal which will be less advantageous.

[@hclau362]

Same diatribe from 45 years back...

[@nategalvan3907]

@@hclau362 you could say the same about the fall of America and yet here we are. Dont be so tone deaf.

[@hclau362]

@@nategalvan3907 I didn't repeat the Mantra "America will collapse" for the last 40 years.. 😜😜. However, I am saying USA is an empire in decline and like all empires in decline, will make decisions and take actions that accelerate its decline. Read the history on the rise and fall of empires.... they all follow the same March of Folly.

[@morespinach9832]

None of these are issues.

[@lonniewheeler4690]

So my son was airforce intel. Very high security clearance he says China would absolutely destroy us