Why “Red Lines” Exist and Why They Are So Often Crossed

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Күн бұрын

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@Adonnus100 3 ай бұрын

This video about red lines is a MAJOR red line for me. I demand you retract it immediately, or I will be forced to issue my strong concerns.

@davidmeehan4486 3 ай бұрын

Your comment about William Spaniel's red lines video crossing a red line for you crosses a red line for me. I demand that you retract the comment immediately, or there will be SEVERE repercussions!

@Merrinen 3 ай бұрын

Commenting any further in this thread is inexcusable. You will be punished and will feel the wrath should you even imply any intention to reply.

@przemo7565 3 ай бұрын

This attempt at limiting the free speech is an attack on our sovereignty, and any more shall be treated as an act of aggresion.

@sauron4890 3 ай бұрын

@@MerrinenLOL

@concept5631 3 ай бұрын

@@sauron4890 Now you've done it! You'll, err, you'll face the wrath of my strongly worded letters!

@Keemos69 3 ай бұрын

There’s no way you made a hawk tuah joke, doc, that’s insane

@alexd1640 3 ай бұрын

The fact that this comment has so little likes gives me hope but man he definitely did

@DiegoCoast-b8v 3 ай бұрын

That was my own red line

@overloader84 3 ай бұрын

That man is a savage!

@zykel621 3 ай бұрын

"Concepts of a red line" had me chuckle a bit

@mariosvourliotakis 3 ай бұрын

he did it last episode too, got a chuckle out of me both times

@roberthaynes488 3 ай бұрын

Gotta love those "concepts." I hear an evil want to be dictator named Trump has concepts of plans that took a decade to come up with.

@enshk79 3 ай бұрын

You folks are so clueless. Every time a “redline” is crossed, more territory is taken and further destruction of the AFU ensues. If you keep laughing and not thinking, then one day you are going to look up and realize that UKRAINE DOESNT EXIST ANYMORE. Do you understand???? Russia is going to completely annex Ukraine directly because of the redlines being crossed. THINK!!!!!

@enshk79 3 ай бұрын

@dcbradfo657 3 ай бұрын

So did "hawk tuah it"

@patwilson2546 3 ай бұрын

Anders Puck raised a great point about Russian red lines. They don't prevent things from happening, but they do significantly delay a thing as the west self regulates.

@mutteringmale 3 ай бұрын

Because red lines only work against wak, subjugated, cowardly and corrupt leaders who seek to show their bellies, pee all over themselves and whine in terror.

@KasumiRINA 3 ай бұрын

So they work - all that russia needs to do in order to harm Ukraine is say two words, and corrupt Western officials ALWAYS fall for that.

@romanbellic810 3 ай бұрын

Not taking me bowling is a red line.

@Gametheory101 3 ай бұрын

Sorry I just need to go out and get a gallon of milk. I will be right back!

@hansonlee5847 3 ай бұрын

It's okay. I heard Roman is available for bowling since his cousin hasn't gone bowling with him lately

@TrueFlameslinger 3 ай бұрын

NIKO COUSIN!

@31redorange08 3 ай бұрын

You died anyway (in my timeline).

@romanbellic810 3 ай бұрын

@@31redorange08 That is fake news!

@krisfrederick5001 3 ай бұрын

I'm reminded of the Looney Tunes episode when Bugs Bunny draws lines in the sand continuously and dares Yosemite Sam to step over them. Sam steps over the lines stubbornly for a long distance until he falls off a cliff. "It's an international game of poker and everyone is cheating" -Beau of the Fifth Column 💙💛

@michaelbread5906 3 ай бұрын

I'm reminded of Bugs Bunny when he threatens to cut the tightrope if a giant gorilla crosses the gap between 2 cliffs. Then the gorilla pulls the rope, and suddenly both cliffaces have collided, and Bugs is face to face with the gorilla.

@dreamervanroom 3 ай бұрын

> "It's an international game of poker and everyone is cheating" -Beau of the Fifth Column Right on Fifth Friend.

@2010hyundaielantra 3 ай бұрын

Even though i disagree with most of his ideas, He was completely spot on with that. I also remember him saying more of "Everyone just pretends to follow the rules"

@markb8468 3 ай бұрын

@@2010hyundaielantraWell said. And much wisdom can be gained by watching Looney Tunes.

@enshk79 3 ай бұрын

@louiscarullo6034 3 ай бұрын

…did you just hawk tuah and “concept” in the same video???? Mad lad.

@nero9506 3 ай бұрын

I mean, it's not like "concept" isn't a common word in the english vocabulary...

@louiscarullo6034 3 ай бұрын

@@nero9506 -_- that word kinda has significant weight due to current events.

@Lukilukilukiluk 3 ай бұрын

@@nero9506 its a play on trumps "concept of a plan" on revised healthcare

@jamalgibson8139 3 ай бұрын

I was sure there's no way he made the hawk tuah joke, but if you heard it too, then it must be real!

@fintux 3 ай бұрын

Yeah to be honest I came to the comments to check for that as well. But I also thought about hawk tuah from the Times Radio video "Putin rattled as hawks gather in Moscow" So at least that one was on me.

@tomaO2 3 ай бұрын

We talk about Russian red lines, but the entire invasion was a major EU red line. It's only natural for that to have caused concequences. Honestly, they should have just gone all in at the start, before Russia could even bluster about red lines. We know what the lines are. We've had decades of experience with this cold war stuff, Russia/China has pulled some aggressive acts that have gone further than anything we've done during this war.

@xway2 3 ай бұрын

That's a great way to think of it. Our red line has already been crossed, hence the strong response.

@ngithens 3 ай бұрын

Ukraine does not belong to the European Union. It could be argued that a motivation for Russia invading is because of the likelihood of Ukraine joining a Western coalition was increasing.

@noahhuffstutler2686 3 ай бұрын

There is another problem with "Red Lines" that I feel needs to be addressed. Crossed "Red Lines" weaken "Hard" power. An empty threat will make each subsequent threat less likely to be respected. Can you also make a video explaining "Hard" and "Soft" power? I feel like a lot of people don't really understand the difference between the two. (Economic strength is "Hard" power, for example.)

@chronus4421 3 ай бұрын

William, your tongue-in-cheek phrases are the best. Thank you!

@jannegrey 3 ай бұрын

I'd say the basic difference is that bluffing isn't exactly an option with line on map. You can factor bluffing in, but that's all. Checking bluff on your "red line" though isn't hard.

@DackelDelay 3 ай бұрын

Then again, hitting that one red line that wasn't a bluff may entail consequences you definitely want to avoid; I mean a "NATO in Moscow" (or close to it) scenario would be something the current russian regime would try to dissuade at all cost?

@jannegrey 3 ай бұрын

@@DackelDelay You certainly don't want NATO in Moscow. Obviously. But sending 10x the hardware and training Ukrainian soldiers to the max and not limiting Ukraine in strike capabilities? Shouldn't be a problem. You see - Putin already did like 20 escalations since the start of the war. Currently over Poland Russian drones that are used to coordinate strikes against Ukraine fly almost every day. We don't do much about it, because we try to not escalate (avoid "NATO in Moscow" scenario). But there is almost 0 recourse for giving Ukraine more weapons that Russia could do. And they know it. That's why they fly those drones etc. If you want to know more, watch Anders Puck Nielsen latest video.

@diestormlie 3 ай бұрын

I somewhat disagree with the "Should the United States keep pushing" section- or perhaps I feel it's incomplete. A stated 'Red Line' being breached, and learning it was bluster, I think, can give insight into whether the next stated Red Line is, likewise, bluster. A) It gives the breaching party knowledge on what the typical reaction is- and, thus, if the announcement of the next Red Line is met with atypical reaction, that might indicate this 'Red Line' is serious. For example, many of Russia's Red Lines have been screamed in public, given in vague terms, consequences listed in vague, overblown terms. That's a very different scenario to an official note passed by an ambassador giving specific actions, dates, times etc. B) Breaching a Red Line and discovering its bluster can also give insight into the actual priorities and objectives of the breached party. To use the Russia-Ukraine example- my suspicion is that Putin's highest priorities are the survival of himself and his regime and not, say, the absolute secession of Arms shipments to Ukraine. So, say, if you breach a Red Line about Arms Shipments to Ukraine, and it's discovered as bluster, that'd suggest that other Red Lines then erected in regards to Arms Shipments to Ukraine are, likewise, bluffs.

@Dman6779 3 ай бұрын

There are more red lines than this but yeah its not a surefire prediction but reasonable certainty is the best to hope for in this universe

@notyrpapa 3 ай бұрын

Isn’t Russia already collaborating with Iran and North Korea? The red line theory feels like it is missing foundations in the real world. Whether you’re a country or a person, if you set up a ‘red line’ and then it is broken without consequence, it’s generally the case that a precedent is set and it’s easier rather than harder to push past the next ‘red line’. I.e. this is more like the ‘boy who cried wolf’. Russia threatened the use of nuclear weapons early on in the conflict, but the example of China’s repeated stepping back from the non-existent red line seems to say more about this scenario than is explored here. That suggests leadership which recognises that the internal political consequences or economic cost of reacting to a stimulus would outweigh the political, tactical or economic cost of backing down.

@NmaeUnavailablesigh 3 ай бұрын

That would effectively be the 60% MANPADs example

@monfera 3 ай бұрын

I generally agree, but not with this part: "thus, if the announcement of the next Red Line is met with atypical reaction, that might indicate this 'Red Line' is serious.". In game theory, it's assumed that the adversaries are rational. If that's the case, the russians obviously expect that the West would think the way you suggest. Which in turn would let them credibly imply an actually enforced red line just by using a different style of communication (including silence). Which of course the West would expect. Etc. etc.

@KasumiRINA 3 ай бұрын

ALL these red lines are bluffs, period. Always have been. Anyone deluding themselves otherwise is just making excuses to get more Ukrainians killed. Full stop.

@GojiMet86 3 ай бұрын

Russia: Do NOT send weapons to Ukraine, or we shall Fallout you! *Sends weapons, nothing happens* Russia: Do NOT send jets and tanks to Ukraine, or we shall Fallout 2 you! *Sends jets, nothing happens* Russia: Do NOT let Ukraine invade Russia, or we shall Fallout 3 you! *Ukraine invades Kursk, nothing happens* Russia: Do NOT let Ukraine take over Moscow, or we shall Fallout 4 you! Ukraine: 🤔🤔🤔

@Mad_Dog_of_the_Regime 3 ай бұрын

Give us links where any Russian official said anything like that ever. Medvedev don't count, he does not hold any authority anymore.

@AmadeusMozart-yk5uk 3 ай бұрын

Putin isnt going to start a nuclear war. What a madman.

@Dman6779 3 ай бұрын

Whatever you do don't fallout 76 us... thats a red line

@Elijah.Ben.BENJAMIN54 3 ай бұрын

The West is doomed to fall, this is the reality you cannot accept.

@centercannothold 3 ай бұрын

When the Soviet Union collapse, Putin was part of the secret council that decide whether whatever left of the Soviet military should start a nuclear war with the US or not. He decided against it. So he is not that suicidal.

@iliaponomarev1624 3 ай бұрын

There is a brand of hygiene products in Russia called "Красная Линия" (literally translated "Red Line"). I seriously suspect that the Russian government has some long-term sponsorship deal with them.

@Dman6779 3 ай бұрын

Special advertising operation

@divermike8943 3 ай бұрын

That matter is what Russia might and, more importantly, could do if a so-called red line is crossed, not so much what that red line is. Nuclear weapons use by Russia would be suicide and Putin knows that. Even any conventional attack on a NATO country is unlikely because that would bring NATO troops into the war. Russia would more likely attempt an attack in a clandestine way, such as through a proxy ally. That Russian ally would have to be willing to take the response. More likely, a Russian response would be through sponsorship of a terrorist attack. They already played that card on October 7, 2023, with Hamas in Israel. Could they do more. Yes. But such things would prompt the West to allow Ukraine more freedom to hit deeper or just supply more weapons. The recent permission to allow any targets in Russia was a result of Russia acquiring Fath ballistic missiles from Iran. If Russia uses them against Ukraine the U.S. will allow ATACMS strikes deep into Russia.

@enshk79 3 ай бұрын

@mutteringmale 3 ай бұрын

Why would they? It's a horrible embarresment for the Rus Gov to constantly issue threats and have someone ignore them.

@chilbiyito 3 ай бұрын

Krasnaya Liniya

@Pyro-et9vs 3 ай бұрын

Take a shot every time “red line” has been said or seen in this video

@stanislavkorniienko1523 3 ай бұрын

No, I'm gonna die 😂

@divermike8943 3 ай бұрын

Nah. I gotta drive.

@stevec7923 3 ай бұрын

Thousands of people immediately hospitalized for alcohol poisoning.

@enshk79 3 ай бұрын

@unvergebeneid 3 ай бұрын

That level of drinking is a red line for me.

@FluxDeimos 3 ай бұрын

This is my favorite channel about lines

@garrettreven5144 3 ай бұрын

I'd assume that "Not getting Ukraine" would be less of a problem than "Currently being vaporized by all of NATO", so there is no actual red line

@Aabergm 3 ай бұрын

And that's it isn't it. The real line in the sand is not in Ukraine, its Putin not losing power, reputation and life. So long as the west does nothing to threaten that Putin will not risk triggering something that will guarantee that outcome. Boots on the ground is probably the real red line because it would be seen as a direct threat, everything else is probably fair game up to and including Ukraine retaking all its territory and then some. So long as Putin can sell it as a win and stays in power, he will accept the outcome if somewhat unhappily.

@ngithens 3 ай бұрын

"mutually assured destruction" is a phrase for a reason

@neurofiedyamato8763 3 ай бұрын

@@ngithens Yep and Russia isn't willing to do that over getting Ukraine. So there's basically no red line since Neither NATO nor Ukraine intends on taking over Russia.

@jarikinnunen1718 3 ай бұрын

In Russia, vodka say where red line is. Hangover say where it`s in next day.

@frankzhao8352 3 ай бұрын

I’m loving your adoption of “concepts“ your last couple of videos

@suigintouivanhoe1167 3 ай бұрын

Red lines? Now Putin has brown lines on his underwear.

@enshk79 3 ай бұрын

@trulyinfamous 3 ай бұрын

Racing stripes

@Oaelexander 3 ай бұрын

BROOOO

@oldiegoldie-j4h 3 ай бұрын

💩

@tilhon 3 ай бұрын

What an impressively complicated way of saying that the more you push the higher the likelihood of your adversary responding! Great work as always, anyway!

@JG-nm9zk 3 ай бұрын

Ukraine invades Bryansk 0.01% Sweden delivers Gripen 0.01% Openly sending troops and support staff to Ukraine 0.01% NATO troops stationed in Ukraine along Belarusian Border 0.01% NATO sending nukes to russia 99.96%

@Aabergm 3 ай бұрын

I personally feel like boots on the ground (in combat roles) is the no go point. It poses a direct threat to Putin's hold on power.

@KasumiRINA 3 ай бұрын

@@Aabergm Congratulations, you personally made up self-restraint arbitrarily on someone's bluff. You lost. The russia has no real red lines, all you do is MAKE UP "real" ones while we already have troops with US flags IN KURSK. In combat roles, yes, volunteers. And so what? LONG OVERDUE SENDING REAL ARMY TO MOSCOW.

@maxstr 3 ай бұрын

How does desperation come into the calculations in game theory? If a leader is facing a total loss, they can become irrational (for example, Germany fighting to the last man at the end of ww2)

@braincell4536 3 ай бұрын

The German leader also unalived himself and his wife. Desperation can also give in to despair and then surrender. History has shown that Russians have been great at defending and scorch earth tactics, not so much in attacking without relying on meat wave tactics.

@Cucumbermaker 3 ай бұрын

but some countries know to surrender before getting entirely destroyed japan in ww2 after getting two suns dropped on them AND getting invaded in Sakhalin by the soviets knew continuing the war was not reasonable and chose to surrender. I do not claim to completely know japans situation in the summer of 45 but i believe that the japanese government pressured the emperor to surrender before their country faces complete annihilation

@UGNAvalon 3 ай бұрын

@felixbeth6340 funny thing, the emperor was actually willing to surrender earlier, but the military was too locked in to total war for that to be an option to them. They even tried to overthrow the emperor when it was clear he was going to announce surrender, but that failed.

@Ludvigvanamadeus 3 ай бұрын

Even if Putin is as desperate as Hitler to fight until the bitter end, Russia wouldn't keep fighting as long as the Germans did during WW2. A lot of Germans were fanatically supportive of Hitler and continued to fight because they believed in the cause. Not all, perhaps even not most, but enough to keep the war going until almost total annihilation. This is not the case with Putin's Russia. There's actually very few Russians that enthusiastically support the regime for ideological reasons and are willing to die for Putin. This was demonstrated during a) the Prigozhin's roadtrip to Moscow when he faced almost no resistance and actually got a lot of positive reactions from the civilian population, b) after the Kursk incursion where the Ukrainians met zero civilian resistance, mass surrender by conscripts and only had to actually fight when facing contract soldiers. Russians seem not to actually give a damn whether they are ruled by Putin, Prigozhin, Zelensky, Biden or the Martians.

@SailingSoWhat 3 ай бұрын

@@Ludvigvanamadeuswhich is not surprising considering the long line of shitty governments russia had. With that history, any hope for change to the better must seem delusional.

@michael9433 3 ай бұрын

Fun fact: There is a wikipedia article on the Red Lines in the Russo-Ukraine War. It mentions 22 red lines that the ruzzians have declared, of which only 4-6 have not been crossed

@jonathanodude6660 3 ай бұрын

congrats on repeating a line in the video you watched.

@warman1944 3 ай бұрын

Have you heard of a KZbinr named William Spaniel? I'm guessing you saw his most recent video.

@hojo70 3 ай бұрын

you must not have bothered to watch the video, he specifically calls that out at 1:28

@drhxa 3 ай бұрын

Loved the simplified model showing probability mass shifting as you learn new info. I think a more realistic choice of probabilities for each item would be an exponentially growing value for each "rung" of the escalation latter (save maybe the very first rung). For example, 5%, 8%, 12%, 20%, 55%. By this model, your first few have very low risk and update your probability of the rest much less It just seems more reasonable that marching on moscow is a "real red line" vs sending some ammo to Ukraine or allowing them to hit logistics deep inside russia

@sandyvogels1461 3 ай бұрын

Whoa! A hauk-tooie joke!! And a nod to the concept of a plan! 🤯 Good Work!!! 😋

@anglaismoyen 3 ай бұрын

Timestamp?

@KityKatKiller 3 ай бұрын

I heavily disagree with the conclusion. It is oversimplification leading to a likely wrong solution. Because we know the qualities of the red lines that were already crossed. That allows us to infer probabilities, which qualities the actual red line has. The more red lines that are weapons deliveries, the less likely it is that weapons deliveries will ever be a red line. The fact that HIMARS, ATACMS and Storm Shadow were not actual red lines makes it far more likely that Taurus is a bluff as well. The fact that Armored vehicles in general, IFVs, Tanks, Patriot, IRIS-T, etc. were bluffed red lines made it exceedingly likely that F-16 was also a bluffed red line. But! One red line where the US immediatley silenced their allies, was shooting down missiles in Ukrainian airspace. I'd wager that is, because qualitatively that is very different. And in that part, jumping from one quality to the next, the method explained in the video applies again.

@zibbitybibbitybop 3 ай бұрын

Ukraine's Kursk offensive has already proven that using Western weapons to hit formal Russian territory was also a bluff. Allowing them to use long range missiles to do more of the same is not qualitatively different enough to matter.

@SailingSoWhat 3 ай бұрын

There is no point of doing math with unknown probabilities, it will tell you absolutely nothing when every line could be 0 or 100%. To get anything at all you NEED to make assumptions about what actually is a bluff and what isn't, and in the end, thats all that matters.

@BlueSky_BlueSky 3 ай бұрын

the reaction to crossing one red line can be very different to the response to another red line. As soon as the reaction is disproportionate, the reaction immediately loses all legitimacy.

@fwiffo 3 ай бұрын

Nothing about that conflicts with the video. The probability has to add up to 100% because it's a probability, and we know with certainty that a red line exists. When there is no response to an alleged red line, the probability has to be distributed among the remaining options. There are many ways that it *could* be distributed. The video doesn't say that it must be equal; that's just a simplification shown to illustrate the principle. The distribution could change based on any new information, not just that gained by "crossing" a red line. There's a distinction between the change in distribution caused by new information, and the change that is mathematically necessary from the removal of a red line. Where there could be more detail is in the nature of the response to a red line. It could be no escalation at all, or the nuclear option, or anything in between. If the expected escalation is acceptable, then it may be worth crossing a real red line. The escalation ladder is distributed over the possible red lines just as much as probabilities. But that gets into escalation management.

@qu4ku 3 ай бұрын

@@fwiffo the probabilities don't need to add up to 100% it would if you have several events and you know at least one of them must trigger red line (or the red line exist at all).

@irBribe 3 ай бұрын

Thank you for another informed video.

@parkerbond9400 3 ай бұрын

Concepts of a plan! I understood that reference!

@seneca983 3 ай бұрын

Care to reveal it?

@andmyAlex 3 ай бұрын

Concepts of a Red Line is so appropriate

@Mountain-Man-3000 3 ай бұрын

SO MUCH about lines on maps this episode! This is why we're here!

@julonkrutor4649 3 ай бұрын

"War is allways an option." - now there is a quote.

@marktackman2886 3 ай бұрын

I have been waiting for a video on this subject, thank you!

@NeuroD369 3 ай бұрын

“Lines on Maps”! Oh, thank God, I needed my fix! 👀

@NinaThordHuseland 3 ай бұрын

💕

@theorenhobart 3 ай бұрын

excellent concept to get the viewer involved. teach people to think instead of just trying to passively learn. more please !

@kawh8719 3 ай бұрын

'you can hawk tua it' was some extremely clever word play ;)

@spudz7405 3 ай бұрын

The fact there is a wiki page on the red lines broken during the wars is gold

@Corvinwhite 3 ай бұрын

I am legally blind so thank you for the informative Contin Russian recognized Ukraine as independent and even made a deal because after the cold war Ukraine was the fourth biggest nuclear armed country they gave their nukes up for assurance of independence Russia cannot go back on their word without consequence we also need to look out for China

@pepebeezon772 3 ай бұрын

No they were not, they would have to attack troops loyal to Moscow to seize the nukes, how do you think this would turn out

@human4116 3 ай бұрын

They never had the capability to launch a nuclear attack though, they simply had stockpiles of warheads leftover after the ussr collapse

@dannykeuerleber7419 3 ай бұрын

@human4116 technically you don't need a launch system if you plan to use them "defensively" the idea of a nuclear mine field has been tossed around by military planners since the 50s.

@PhysicsGamer 3 ай бұрын

@@pepebeezon772 Why would they need to attack? Starving them out would have been trivial, if it came to that.

@pepebeezon772 3 ай бұрын

@@PhysicsGamer still an act of war genius

@joshuacem2827 3 ай бұрын

Concepts of a red line. Please, keep it up. I love it!

@tut.u 3 ай бұрын

Take a drink every time he says “Red line”

@yanikq 3 ай бұрын

Thanks for introducing me to the concept of "coercive diplomacy". Alexander George is turning out to be a fascinating read.

@jayrey5390 3 ай бұрын

Thank you for the video! Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦✊🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇬🇧

@theorenhobart 3 ай бұрын

heroyam slava !!

@sErgEantaEgis12 3 ай бұрын

9:00 Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan will always be funny because it showed how fragile Winnie the Pooh was that a single US politician visiting what's functionally a sovereign state outside Beijing's control had him mobilize large parts of his military just to avoid losing face and then just quietly have them go home without having accomplished anything.

@americannightmare425 3 ай бұрын

You really ended the video with “you can hawk to (tuah) it” my man.

@aluxtaiwan2691 3 ай бұрын

Is kinda like setting up tons of wire on enemy routes. Ofc enemy will become bolder and faster after learning eachone he snip so far is connected to nothing. But still will proceeding with some level of caution because he never sure if next one is another hox or not.

@x.X.N0mad.X.x 3 ай бұрын

First time im ever this early, nice

@gigabyte128 3 ай бұрын

i swear, u are the best channel on youtube, and i got ur book, how ukraine survived

@renewklear 3 ай бұрын

Pink lines

@Marc42 3 ай бұрын

Hawk tua reference? Respect! 👏

@zippyzonka 3 ай бұрын

Maybe this works just because the lines a broken gradually, in a creeping normality fashion, sometimes compared to boiling a frog, and death by a thousand cuts.

@missnobody6151 3 ай бұрын

Also thought like that, but i doubt that this was the strategy from the beginning.

@sethkappaccilli9509 3 ай бұрын

Or red lines are there more to make the west question itself and it's current ideas. It creates a cost benefit equation by just being "there"

@Darcsheep 3 ай бұрын

😹 funniest vid so far. You're amazing. Keep it up!

@FlashMustache 3 ай бұрын

Bad take. A long story about probability theory and "setting Russia off" as if it's some kind of unpredictable animal that may bite. Russia using nuclear weapons would have significant consequences, and it's trying to balance the books of _perceived_ damage done by red line crossed vs _perceived_ damage done by using their nuclear deterrent. _That_ is the calculation, which is heavily dependent on how India and China perceive escalation. So no, manpads were never going to cause it.

@theorenhobart 3 ай бұрын

expand your understanding of using this during war to way before a conflict starts. could you come to your same conclusion in 2021 ?

@seneca983 3 ай бұрын

What do you mean "bad take"? The MANPADs were just a hypothetical example. You seem to be taking that part too literally.

@PunmasterSTP 3 ай бұрын

Another Tuahtally awesome video 👍

@raskalthefirst 3 ай бұрын

Hawk to it. I see what you spit there!

@TheDonutMan3000 3 ай бұрын

The setup for the hawk joke at the end put me into fight or flight

@ketsuekikumori9145 3 ай бұрын

I'm betting $1000 on Red Line winning.

@isaiahcruz4283 3 ай бұрын

Concepts of a red line was a good one! :>

@broad_cat 3 ай бұрын

D-did you just say hawk-tuah it? 😭

@Yezpahr 3 ай бұрын

Sounds like it for sure... whether it really was is hard to tell.

@HectorGonzalez-fz6ws 3 ай бұрын

When? @@Yezpahr

@Yezpahr 3 ай бұрын

@@HectorGonzalez-fz6ws At the end when he was plugging his books.

@Scherzkeks4104 3 ай бұрын

Seeing as all former Russian Red Lines have been busted with no consequences, makes me rather certain that Putin is mainly interested in his own survival and staying in power. So I'd actually think that nato getting involved in Ukraine directly (so not attacking Russia on all fronts, just expelling them from Ukraine) would not trigger a red line, since Putins power over Russia would not be attacked.

@PGM991 3 ай бұрын

i believe that true redline is Crimea. if bridge is destroyed, and risk of losing crimea is become clear (Ukraine push into crimea) ... that when nuclear will fly.

@jamesb3497 3 ай бұрын

I do agree that a potential loss of Chrimea would see an escalation, but I'm not sure it would involve nuclear weapons. If Ukraine is in that position, I have doubts that nuclear weapons would help.

@bradstewart1996 3 ай бұрын

I came here for line content and I was not disappointed.

@Yksssy 3 ай бұрын

MORREEE LIINNNNES!!!!

@ThomAs17201 3 ай бұрын

Have you ever considered also posting your content on Nebula? Big fan of that service and think your content would be great there. However, I don’t know the economics of such a change, which might be why your only on KZbin.

@Notsogoodguitarguy 3 ай бұрын

I think when people talk about Russia's red lines not existing, they don't talk about having no red lines in general, more that they don't have red lines about supplying arms to Ukraine. Although, I'm sure there's a red line even there. I can imagine Russia won't be too happy if Ukraine gets nukes for example.

@asan1050 3 ай бұрын

William Spaniel Thanks for posting this video

@chisank 3 ай бұрын

Spaniel!!!!

@fillipe4700 3 ай бұрын

Just found out your channel, really cool and not sensationalist

@paulhedeen7659 3 ай бұрын

Am I the only person who finds this "lines on maps" expression opaque? If we are not really talking about territory, why are we looking at maps?

@bo2_435 3 ай бұрын

I mean kinda, but also ig it's a good visualization for when you're dealing with 'expected outcomes', which are translated to territorial gains

@KasumiRINA 3 ай бұрын

He started with it and now tries to somehow bring it back in, despite everybody understanding that map of Ukraine isn't changing, and with Kursk, the point is moot - either russia collapses or we keep 1991 borders.

@markb8468 3 ай бұрын

There's a reason this channel has 650k followers. Thanks.

@o0alessandro0o 3 ай бұрын

That "Putin doesn't care at all" bit is confusing, because it doesn't specify what it is that Putin doesn't care about. If Putin doesn't care about lost lives, and the monetary cost of war (and can actually afford to bring this lack of care to bear), then we are in the *other* situation - where the red line and the white line essentially overlap.

@jamesb3497 3 ай бұрын

I think he meant "doesn't care about the territorial gains."

@o0alessandro0o 3 ай бұрын

@@jamesb3497 Well, yes, that is the only option that makes sense - but it only makes sense after you rewatch the segment in question and figure it out. Which means it's confusing. EtA: basically, the two options are "doesn't care about costs" and "doesn't care about gains". Since we started by talking about how the red line is determined by costs, "doesn't care" suggests the other option.

@darthsidius9631 3 ай бұрын

Omg I just were about to say that they are meaningless because they are not line on maps! Then I clicked on the video and saw the full title (Unless They Are Lines on Maps) will is just always two steps ahead of us and outsmarts us

@CedarHunt 3 ай бұрын

It's not that red lines are silly. It's that they have follow through to have substance. That doesn't necessarily mean military action. It can mean economic or political action that can still have serious implications.

@kdzmcwilliams 3 ай бұрын

Always informative. 👍👍🫡

@nicholasrckent8609 3 ай бұрын

You r good at this ❤

@biddyboy1570 3 ай бұрын

This video crossed my red line. So I'm going to eat pasta.

@PatrizioGiulioli 3 ай бұрын

I bought the books, both. Italy, Rome. I wanted to let you know 😂. By the way, I love your videos.

@Tbone11756 3 ай бұрын

Really milking these Russia videos huh

@FrozenSpector 3 ай бұрын

For Halloween, can you change the red lines to Red Vines licorice?

@treyaldridge1757 3 ай бұрын

Russia is only doing it in hopes that just one thing makes the west forget. Red, red lines

@brey6394 3 ай бұрын

Think I learned a few new things in this video. Well, maybe the “concept” of new things. 😉😂 Thanks for the analysis of red lines.

@nancyhope2205 3 ай бұрын

How very clever a way to explain it!

@brunsheimmasterbaitwilfrie2811 3 ай бұрын

If you look at the war as being started mainly because Putin wanted to stabilize his power at home by delievering a quick, cheap and easy victory, one red line clearly is where his position in power is directly attacked from the outside. Ironeously being able to project the idea NATO already is a fighting party in this war is desirable to Putin, since it allows him to gather more Russians around the flag and gloss over some of the deficiencies of his apparatus, but NATO doing something that in itself would cause so much effect, that it could really cause a military defeat and thus threaten Putins power is a red line. The goal of the game actually is to allow Putin mantaining the illusion he could still win this while causing most people in Russia grow too unhappy with the situation to keep the war going.

@DackelDelay 3 ай бұрын

One concept I'd like to see explored is "red lines TO WHAT?" At this point IDK if anyone knows what crossing a red line would even entail: strategic nuclear deployment? against who? tactical nuclear depoyment? total-war-style all out mobilization? an angry letter?

@cursedhickoryactual 3 ай бұрын

❤ great 👍 job William ❤

@HillelAlon 3 ай бұрын

Thank you William

@YouTubeExcavation 3 ай бұрын

Thanks William

@rafaszmuda669 3 ай бұрын

Nice to see some practical "why stuff happening and what might it hypothetically results in" instead of recently omnipresent "why we rock" content. Especially when at least in my country and to my knowledge in USA as well history isn't even teached to begin with (I don't consider cramming events to be teaching history rather we should teach ppl mechanics behind this events).

@chingading957 3 ай бұрын

I learn a lot from you.

@sunalwaysshinesonTVs 3 ай бұрын

TL;DR "lines on map" is basically negotiating for a car at a used car dealership.

@GasuWG 3 ай бұрын

Love the exercise bro

@forgottenfamily 3 ай бұрын

Another factor is that (let's call it) anxiety spikes when you cross a red line and then deteriorates as this becomes the new normal giving breathing room to smash another red loline. Go too quickly, you push the anxiety over the edge

@kevinvanderpoole293 3 ай бұрын

I do appreciate you approach to 'hawking' your books at the end of your videos, not to forceful and nicely professional... but it just might be getting a bit out dated... been the same method for quite awhile now... so i think i came up with a suggestion that might be to your liking... as well as shaking things up a bit... so... continues with your theme from hawks... to hawking your books... all i have to say is... have you heard about this new big thing known as the 'hawk tuah' girl... she really has gone viral recently... and could open a whole new audience to your content... as i am guessing much of her current audience are not big on watching geopolitical economics videos... just saying... that could be the beginning of a beautiful new friendship... as the say... :-)

@pulaiandras 3 ай бұрын

Honorable mention to hawk to. 😊

@Donbros 3 ай бұрын

Concept of red line is like concept of war rules. Like it is guideline but if it desperate it is unlikely to be followed too much especially loosing side

@bigphil2695 3 ай бұрын

You can dangerously close to making a "Hawk Tuah" joke at the end of this video, which would have definitely crossed my red line

@mrileeks 3 ай бұрын

Never thought I'd see a Hawk Tuah reference in a William Spaniel video

@victorquesada7530 3 ай бұрын

That bit at the end about possibility remind me of the Monty Hall problem, where updating your probability prediction should lead you to switch the door you pick rather than sticking with the previous one, although psychologically we can’t really let go of it. I feel like the model is a little flawed Sense the mask and work out but not necessarily the internal workings of the leader ship or the situation on the ground. I feel like it to fluid to use such a straight forward mathematical model

@toby9999 3 ай бұрын

Finally, something sensible about Russia's red lines. The way you describe it is how I've always understood them... except I'm not so sure about the math. I don't believe we can place actual values anywhere.