WHY STOCKS RALLIED & BONDS TANKED: RATE CUT AT 100% POST CPI!

[@crowdedmarketreport]

You can now join our premium KZbin membership where we share COT charts on Stocks, Crypto and member-only market recap videos. kzbin.info/door/P37ZqE3gN9Jxl2jtnvO8eAjoin Learn more about Jason and the CMR Community at www.crowdedmarketreport.com

[@petersugura2420]

You’re the absolute best man, thank you for being generous with your time 🙏

[@pedropack]

Thank you for sharing all your knowledge ❤

[@quantum7401]

I loved your content today. You cover all the major news catalysts, and it was short and sweet.

[@tiagosousalage]

Great stuff as always. Thanks Jason

[@mrz007]

Thank you Jason! Love your commentaries especially on weird days like this one! (2 index up but one down etc etc)

[@Ran_G]

Thank you Jason

[@charted-territory]

Thanks again Jason. Much appreciated.

[@GV2ZD]

Thank you Jason - Always appreciate your measured take

[@mattwilmshurst8456]

Thanks Jason

[@uriabinenshtok]

thanks again jason

[@jonathanlee5185]

Thanks 👍

[@MickeyMekhael]

Waitting for today's video

[@darwinmolina8531]

thanks for this information Jason and you were right about weather today. Boston is sucks right now hahaha

[@LA_batboy]

Thanks buddy

[@timedowntube]

sweet as usual.

[@niklas4031]

The fed is desperate avoiding a recession by cutting in an environment where stocks are trading at ATH, where inflation is sticky and the economy is robust on paper… they should immediately pause and keep rates here for at least 6 months and see what it does to the system. Gonna be interesting i think they actually do pause next week..

[@waynesnelling8259]

When are they not cutting at all time highs?

[@niklas4031]

@ you usually cut rates when the economy is weakening and therefore the market is below ATH. Cutting cycles usually start a bear market like 2007 or 90s. In some rare occasions rate cuts boost markets a lot but only if a recession can be avoided and a soft landing is achieved which I do not see. I know market rallies can be deceiving and we like strong markets for now, but under the hood things do not look great at all. The latest jobs data is signaling a significant cooling, likely quicker than what the fed wants to see. It’s gonna be interesting 2025. Good luck with your trading / investing

[@niklas4031]

@@waynesnelling8259 it appears to me that the fed is pretty much forced to cut rates as the debt is starting to become to expensive, they need to lower rates in order to pay off debt

[@tradeforrice7571]

Current rate is still killing lot of small businesses . Thats why stocks are trading at ath and mega 7 are doing great?

[@GregRyanFitness]

They won’t stop cutting. Made exactly same mistake in 2007. Same rate cut schedule as back then. Focused to much on inflation and not enough on unemployment. Emergency cuts in Feb. cpi back to 5 in April just like 2008

[@anonymouslyominous3]

Thx

[@App12-qk3xq]

Would you short live cattle here anymore?

[@PetarPetrovS]

Hey Jason, what's your opinion on the New Zealand Dollar?

[@mehdikhosh8879]

Dear Jason, Thank you for the great educational video, Please keep it coming. shalom

[@douglas2835]

Bonds - I think the market will start pricing in a pause after this cut and I expect a little hawkish talk following this cut. I think bonds will rally, especially if we get a small equity pullback in the ST. Everyone saying they have no idea why fed is cutting. 1. Labor rolling over and most importantly, there are $1.8 T (with a T) of bonds to reprice next 1.5 -2 years. They are boxed in, 100% have to get rates down. There's not much to discuss in that regard. However, Fed cutting doesn't mean long rates drop, as we've seen rates rise. Bottom line to me, short term I think TLT closes at 100 by year end.

[@Cr1tter]

UNH, #2 in DJIA, weighed heavy also -5%

[@parwizbashir6797]

Thanks Jason- what’s your view on the CPI numbers outside of the YoY and MoM?

[@crowdedmarketreport]

@@parwizbashir6797 just look to see actual versus forecast and then market reaction. Helps determine market tone.

[@andrewincavo3893]

Solana did 7% nat gas is for donating to market makers

[@מעיןשליט-ע7ק]

I think the Dow has going down simply because of UNH

[@samthedoor]

I agree with you on crude, those are news failures. Of course, I am biased because I am long crude! 😅but I can't see how else to look at a steady grind higher despite news of lack of demand and ample gasoline. The Dow is weighted by the health care companies and those got rocked today, that might have something to do with the Dow failure. Because Nvidia, Salesforce, Apple etc had a good day. Makes a lot of sense to me on bonds but maybe because I agree with this, we're both wrong and we'll get hit with a monkey wrench, but what can you do, that's the market!

[@zacharylee1527]

I got confused a bit on this video - you said probability of a rate cut went up to 100% but also that it was "a pretty big move up in rates today, especially on the long end"

[@Jay-jd1bi]

he explains that right in the video

[@donragnar8430]

When the Fed cuts rates it influences the short end not the long end for rates.The long end went up because the Fed’s current rate cutting policy while risk assets are at all time highs (due to the system being full of liquidity) is considered to be inflationary- long end rates went up to discount future inflation. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in Dec went up to 100% - however they haven’t factored in the possibility of a rate pause.

[@zacharylee1527]

@@donragnar8430 thank you, that's the explanation I was looking for !! long end vs short end of rates

[@TheChickenWhispererP]

Hi Jason, I totally enjoy your analysis. Can you please shed some light on why GER40 is at all times high given the recent government collapse? Is that due to the rate cuts and markets focusing on better times ahead? Thank you!

[@MarkShinnick]

Foolishly burned into their ammunition.

[@redpill-finance]

Hey Jason can you do Cane sugar futures? I showed Nick Timiros a pic of a potential cup and handle and ask him what Jerome “Arthur Burns” plan was if it brokeout. Nick blocked me

[@deamonkind]

Japan inflation rate beat expectations. Yen rallied then failed

[@EdSadler-b7h]

Up we go. Recessions are not allowed in 2024. Fed will not allow it.

[@ElementaryWatson-123]

capital gains tax is a big item in federal government tax receipts, Fed will strive keeping market going up

[@EdSadler-b7h]

@@ElementaryWatson-123 This is why I will be getting loans against my bitcoin. Not paying those taxes.

[@tradeforrice7571]

Feel like market gonna top or correct around March because transportation sector is very toppy and weak.

[@1970Mrmaurizio]

I think the same

[@EquityProphets]

🔥

[@bibbidi_bobbidi_bacons]

👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻

[@stkhnds]

Not sure why people think rate cut next week is a done deal. Core month over month hasn’t budged since August. Some commodities are going up, employment seems to be weakening and the FOMC is going to cut? Big mistake imo

[@App12-qk3xq]

Corn and beans?

[@RvanZyl]

You were wrong on the best performing asset of the day Jason, it was actually Fartcoin.

[@Xmj202]

Fed is cutting bc the next admin is planning to slash spending like a gnr guitarist 🎸

[@abandonedbuildingexplorer]

Returning to my profession after a long break is taking my attention away from financial markets. That is a problem! Can you please make a video offering tips and advice for speculators who are trying to strike a balance. Ideally, I could focus 100% on trading and investing. Keywords: work-life balance, work-life harmony :)

[@trevorgeall1653]

How much is bitcoins increase due to other countries (outside the USA) trying to get money out? You mentioned Canada, they’ve limited how much Bitcoin you can buy. Is this part of the reason for bitcoins growth.

[@elitara77]

Is it possible the government/FED would "scare the markets" in order to refinance all this debt at lower interest? It would be pretty bad if they have to refinance trillions at 4% in 2025.

[@rofsjan]

Thank you. Interesting. What do you think about S&P500? Small traders have heavy long positions, while large traders and commercial hedgers are shorting.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

@@rofsjan until it’s max crowded, not sure if means much.

[@Tom-yr6kt]

CPI at 2.7 Core at 3.3 ... Bitcoin Meme-Stocks and Stocks on ATH.. an they cut rates.. the funny money Fed

[@berryblue2345]

Everyone is Long. Even the busdriver wants to Buy tech and btc. With Signal short … my opinión. At least a bigger correction

[@eoinocnaimhsi2598]

Dont short a bull market. Even the poxy bus driver knows that.

[@berryblue2345]

@ actually You Can do when it’s a Part of your Edge. The better question would be: what is the time horizon? What’s the stop and when it’s not longer a part of your pre defined setup. Then it doesn’t matter what a Market you’re shorting.

[@TimTbone]

Contrarian view for you. Deflation is coming soon and they will not stop it till the next bank fails

[@LifestyleTradr]

Jason you say Liquidily instead of liquidity

[@scottwhite8960]

"Liquililly"

[@Miggy2j]

I think the largest reason for Bitcoin going up is MSTR's continues buys. With our last run of inflation, Bitcoin only started to perform well after inflation had topped.

[@eoinocnaimhsi2598]

Dxy down, Nations buying, etfs record inflows. Thats why.

[@Miggy2j]

​​@eoinocnaimhsi2598 ETF flows are nothing compared to what MSTR has been buying and nation-states? What El Salvador? That's negligible

[@BigWickTraders]

I got wrecked

[@eoinocnaimhsi2598]

He hates that he has to even reference Bitcoin. Buy smart, buy btc, retire 😉

[@factsplz2248]

You sure have a good group of fake positive reviewers

[@Reutzel507]

More buyers then sellers and more sellers than buyers. Don’t be dumb

[@PaulSharkey-u4j]

You are making the assumption that GDP is going to be 3% and it’s not a problem if the 10 year is at 4.5%. What if the revision of GDP comes in lower(which I believe will) and you’re at 4.5% on the 10 year. Same thing. You have a problem. If the Trump admin continues with this charade then I guess it’s not a problem but I believe that the revisions are coming imminently