Why success is not predictable | Vince Ebert | TEDxHHL

Do you believe in coincidence? No? Are you sure? Try to remember how you met your spouse. Or how you got your first job. Was all of that planned? Really? We are secretly convinced that we understand the world, how our partners and the laws of the free market function. And there certainly must be a simple formula for success. Think again! Ever since the financial crisis in 2008 one thing should have become perfectly clear: in complex systems there are a ton of factors that are unpredictable per se. The factor “chance” has always played a vital role: Scotch tape was originally planned as band aid and Viagra was discovered when male test persons wouldn´t even think of giving up their heart medication.
Coincidence is absolutely vital for progress and innovation. After all the most successful system of our universe is based on trial and error: evolution. Without coincidence and chance the most influential species would never have been able to generate. Give chance a chance!
Vince Ebert, phycisist and comedian, shows why the world isn't computable and how this can be in our favor.
Vince Ebert was born in 1968 in Amorbach in Germany’s Odenwald region and studied physics at Würzburg’s Julius Maximilian University. After graduating, he worked in management consulting and market research before launching his stage career as a cabaret artist in 1998. Vince Ebert’s mission is to convey scientific contexts with the laws of humour.
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at ted.com/tedx

[@rayamis9509]

This was an "Intellectual" audience, who didn't expect to laugh, and so they didn't. A performers' nightmare, but a very, very brave speaker.

[@richb2752]

Once he got them to laugh their mind opened up.

[@MedvedPrevedPoka]

I hope its the microphones that couldnt record the laughter well, in other case this audiance is a nightmare.

[@Luna1967100]

Brillianter Vortrag, lahmes Publikum! Tapferer Vince!

[@cjcrawford1958]

the irony, the German is actually telling a lot of funny jokes and the American audience doesn't get a single one of them.

[@MaxSluiman]

Famous saying of Napoleon:" In every battle, my battle plan is the first casualty".

[@Walldorf-City-Limits]

It was von Moltke who wrote this, not Napoleon!

[@eb3279]

Poor guy, he's really funny and witty but the audience doesn't get any of his quips.

[@bjornschneider3559]

They probably think this is all quite serious and they want to take a lesson home.

[@active285]

No, he is not. Flat, predictable punchlines without any depths.

[@auronoxe]

„An esoteric can claim more nonsense in 5 minutes, than a scientist can disprove in his lifetime“. So true.

[@MtpIntros]

The audience is so quiet. It's free to laugh, no one will charge you if you laugh..

[@Claude-Eckel]

Maybe his thick accent is not funny but appalling...

[@josefabuaisheh6262]

Yeah i agree, tough crowd. Poor Man 😑

[@diemuebs4316]

There are only Germans in the audience: Bad English and no humor. 😁

[@josefabuaisheh6262]

@@diemuebs4316 I'm german 😂 the comedian is german 😂 and all of the jokes are typically german 😂 But I get what you are sayin

[@CibronNethis]

@@diemuebs4316 it's worse, HHL is a business school and the audience is future management consultant and investment bankers :)

[@YourChangeIsNow]

Interesting idea. Risk it's more important to us that we think. Great talk. Added to favorites!

[@grovermartin6874]

Is it possible that the mikes or badly placed?

[@grovermartin6874]

*Are badly placed

[@hannahmc5291]

I like your thinking fella...buffalos without skin would constantly fall apart!

[@mariosebastiani3214]

Great humor indeed, I really aprreciated that. Next time, try performing in front of a live audience instead of a morgue hall.

[@Leftyotism]

I like how he said "Good luck!" at the end. xD

[@timpullen4941]

American humour does not understand implied humour. Americans seem to need a big sign that says LAUGH HERE.

[@grahammcdonald]

Like it! I've also learned that Germans with a GSOH exist, double win!

[@johndalzell904]

@I'm Purrito: Good Sense Of Humour

[@nikolaobradovic6103]

The phenomena for the audience in German is called "Stock im Arsch" please google translate XD

[@supersalat1167]

In Deutschland spricht man Deutsch :3

[@Dinitroflurbenzol]

@@supersalat1167 Du warst noch nie in Kreuzberg, oder?

[@supersalat1167]

Dinitroflurbenzol xD

[@nikolaobradovic6103]

@@supersalat1167 Dann lass mal n Bayern in Lübeck nach dem Weg fragen 😂 Da kommt er mit Spanisch besser weiter...

[@liam6230]

Haha😂

[@Michneko]

Damned audience can even crack a laugh?

[@gcgrabodan]

Never heard freedom of will being justified with complexity theory. Good talk though

[@pouncepounce7417]

If everything is predicdable then how neurons fire is too, thus scan a brain, model it in an computer and you can predict what thought will come next from the state it is in right now

[@sjusup]

Wtf is wrong with this audience! It's like theirs brains were removed on entrance to the hall!!! No one laughs, really!

[@elsbethmartins1793]

Most people in the audience didnt get it. Only a few clapping. Weired...Science... ;-)

[@active285]

Well. Flat, predictable punchlines and some interspersed prejudices being strung together without any depths. The example given for some mindsets by description of any empty fridge was the only funny part I found.

[@justcausereason155]

what is up with this audience. all political correct? to busy checking if it is offensive to laugh?

[@elizabetharrowood4015]

+JustCause:Reason Thank you. I actually laughed out loud at times and was seriously shocked when the audience was silent. Tough crowd.

[@TotalRookie_LV]

Not necessarily, I tend to smile (that "I know what you mean" smile), rather than laugh out loud over smart, subtle jokes.

[@Dadniel1st]

Genius

[@PlainsPup]

9:50 - Ostriches don’t really stick their heads into the sand.

[@sunnyarora1414]

Fantastic.

[@suchdevelopments]

Vince both scientist and comedian.

[@TheHornoxx]

... he was good! and, with this audience, even cool ;-)

[@cascamidland]

Tough crowd

[@astrostudent2302]

are you his bro?

[@cascamidland]

@@astrostudent2302 No we just happen to share the same last name, it's very common in Germany 😅

[@Modelozone]

Very interesting thanks for sharing 💙

[@robertw5052]

The title is very fitting 😥

[@TheHornoxx]

... regardless of whether the audience laughed or not - Good!

[@mhtinla]

Haha... He's so funny. He'll be 25% funnier if I can understand 100% of his English.

[@alanward992]

His English was perfect.

[@alanward992]

The unpredictability of an audience! An entertaining presenter who must have wondered why he bothered!

[@viktorn2551]

Tough crowd...

[@hollywood23007]

Oh man, the crowd sucked. This guy was brilliant

[@zimt1]

They are dead inside!

[@jameshorn270]

Schrdinger's beer stash?

[@christiant5154]

Ebert, guck dir ein paar serien von Who's the boss, bitte!

[@nowandaround312]

"Do you believe in coincidence?" Well I don't _believe_ in coincidence, it's just something that happens, so yes, I guess you could say I believe in coincidence. "No?" If you're going to tell me what I think, then why bother asking?

[@lovingboarding]

+Privacy Lover It's called a figure of speech. Language is not always exact all the time.

[@tubbysza]

damn, good point

[@TheBoredcupcake]

I have to say this, sometimes he sounds like stewie griffin

[@SFVone]

omg yes!

[@muctop17]

No wonder, this event happened in Leipzig! (east germany) He better should have given it in russian language... They just didn´t understand in english

[@sarahmichael270244]

there are other clips on youtube, where he does this jokes in front of an american audience. he and the audience had a ball

[@andreascj73]

Man, a dead audience ...

[@thomasjanssen9124]

Tough crowd…

[@natehill8069]

This almost hurts to watch. He says a (funny) punch line, pauses for laughter, nothing happens, he resumes. Is this from a (Cumberbatch) Sherlock Holmes where the entire audience is cadavers to protect an intel source?

[@YouLikeToast]

Lol what a bland audience! This guy was great!

[@TotalRookie_LV]

Nose hair trimmer? Thank you, but I have big nostrils and elegant yet strong fingers, so I can do without it.

[@AlexanderGoeres]

this intro of his about being a physicist gets a litte tedious ... he obviously doesn't have any other ...

[@pouncepounce7417]

He is not an comediam making jokes who happens to be an Physicist too, his mission is to explain science in an fun way

[@pakzrokz]

This is a very random talk. I guess people were quiet, because it is a poorly disguised comedy act, when they were expecting something scientific..

[@madshorn5826]

Nah, scientific minded people have humor and are open to change. It got to be mostly business people: the only thing that got a reaction was references to MBAs and airports. They just didn't knew enough to get the rather brilliant jokes.

[@grovermartin6874]

The guy is brilliant! The problem is with badly placed microphones.

[@deisteryeti61]

Where did he talk? At a funeral?

[@Basicguy1798]

omg such a dead crowd... seriously??

[@larrybarnes1794]

Terrible audience doesn't seem to have a sense of humour..

[@dreemint9976]

why did no one laugh at his first joke, just why

[@lovingboarding]

"Sleep with your own wife" Why was he only speaking to men and/or married lesbians?

[@ThePiitteri]

The idea of joke is lost if you nitpick on details like that. You can use your own imagination and use husband, brother or what ever you want. The joke remains the same. Who ever is your loved one.

[@jurajmalatin5191]

My grandfather remembers the last time the Germans tried to have fun through failure, just like the audience, I don't think he's found it funny either.

[@hendrikschuch]

Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo funny

[@Boo-nx4ut]

😑