WHY THE FED CAN’T AFFORD A RECESSION. THE PONZI SCHEME CONTINUES!

[@crowdedmarketreport]

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[@StephanieG.Augustus]

America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

[@pauline-o2q]

I was just thinking the same. Amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against downturns and still make profits. if you can't navigate the market you should consult with an expert advisor

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.

[@pauline-o2q]

This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation

[@KarenJ.Mancia]

Stacy Lynn Staples is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. By looking her up online, you can quickly verify her level of experience. She is well knowledgeable about financial markets.

[@JohnNgomba-k3v]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@seichho73]

There's an uncomfortable feeling in the fact of not counting on the natural order of things. Letting the markets figure themselves out. There's been so much manipulation by FED alone it's scary to even think about the consequences. This is certainly not Capitalism. Scary times...

[@felipedieter4789]

Jason, I love your videos. Just intelectual, direct to the point information. To the point to inflationary disease: I come from Brazil and since a LONG time, our average inflation never gets under 3%. We live with this addiction to liquidity a long time and the US might be going to the same direction.

[@phtephenjumptoconclusionsq3504]

Thank you !

[@Skerpful]

Uncomfortable truths as always Jason, thanks!

[@redpill-finance]

Can we call it a richcession? Assets go up and poors just get decimated

[@Ran_G]

Thank you, Jason

[@ElementaryWatson-123]

What's going to happen is the real interest rates will become negative again. One may think, why would anybody buy government debt with negative real returns? -- There are banks that don't care, they make money either way. There are foreign entities that need to keep reserves in dollars (treasuries). Then government will force SS, retirement, other funds buy government debt. The end result, people who rely on fixed income will lose money, people who rely on social programs will get less in inflation adjusted terms, and large companies will keep making more money. Ponzi cannot slow down it can only grow up or collapse.

[@PRIDEMACHINERY]

Thank you for your thoughts, always very clear., Joe Chaparo

[@wahajahmed5294]

Best video on KZbin , Jason your awesome Man. Cheers

[@rahulrajendran2724]

I am still not Jason Shapiro

[@ComeOnPelican91]

You are not alone.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

Trust me, you dont want to

[@menace_trades]

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on disbelief, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. I sense we are between optimism and euphoria...

[@cmeola1066]

Well said

[@schumanhuman]

If the fixed income market rejects bonds, we already know the central banks will step in and purchase them. QE,yield curve control ,all these manipulations are there to finess away from the obvious conclusion, there is no real limit to currency creation other than inflation/currency debasement. Issuing bonds for govt money creation is a farcical and arbitrary throwback to the gold standard. This is nothing new to this understanding either. Abraham Lincoln when faced with paying for the civil war and not getting the money on reasonable terms, simply created it without bond or gold backing, aka Greenbacks. You may say, lots of inflation resulted after the war (but that was also due to the war destroying productive capacity), but he paid the soldiers and won the war none the less.

[@yousifyasin6043]

what a great refreshing perspective on economics ..we can't afford to have a Recession.. Amen

[@niren4819]

He’s right

[@JISBR2g1]

Keynes is alive and well. Money printing is the basis of all governments and they must deficit spend.

[@RoTelnCheese]

The ponzi continues for now but I fear we will all have the rug pulled underneath us when we least expect it.

[@James-il3tq]

And then CBDCs and perhaps one world government. All been foretold in The Bible

[@paulwu1301]

People have been saying that for few decades, so good luck.

[@RoTelnCheese]

@@paulwu1301up only for eternity, right? Good luck with that

[@RoTelnCheese]

@@paulwu1301 the debt is expanding at an unprecedented rate

[@aaronformella2869]

So, dollar down + bonds down would be a rejection of the currency? (or at least show that people want to be compensated for the currency's risk?) But perhaps not looking at the value of dollar in the DXY, since it's a measure relative to other currencies, but rather the price of goods and services (i.e. inflation) and for example, gold, for which if supply/demand stayed the same, a loss in the real purchasing power of the dollar would be reflected in the price of it going up (along with everything else for that matter). But since people would know the price would go up it would create demand and thereby a sort of positive feedback loop. IMO inflation is here to stay, the gov can devalue its currency and inflate away its monster debt in time, meanwhile its citizens that own assets would be appeased as their assets increase in price. This would serve to widen the wealth gap between haves and have-nots. I don't imagine the nations who've been the lenders (bought U.S. treasuries in size) would be happy about this either.

[@SacredTubes]

Hey Jason… What’s the lag (if any) on global liquidity? For example with the Chinese stimulus the markets rallied. Is that from the actually liquidity or just from the news of it?

[@akshatrastogi9063]

Markets are forward looking, so yes, its just the news

[@billycunningham4042]

You nailed this. It’s buy the dip until the US tries to sell debt and there are no buyers.

[@jimbosavage]

The fed can just buy the debt. But if they do that, eventually the actual dollars won't be worth anything.

[@patriciomora9663]

There will always be

[@ardsophee3776]

spot on

[@Name-lt2tz]

it is interesting to see that even when it feels bad that they create the inflation, you are still so calm as if it does not matter to you. Probably it even gives you oportunity when you know how to get edge vs those who do not have on this event when there will be some big crash becasue of this inflation

[@perretti]

Citizens are just chasing the FED dragon.

[@sav8772]

Sometimes in 2026 maybe? At the end of 14.5 years property cycle

[@derekb2817]

Agreed. But, who is buying and holding with Total Market Cap over GDP at 200%? Maybe the plan is to go up to 250% to match Japan. Otherwise, just alot of conditioning to build up exit liquidity.

[@Mav0585]

So can’t ever short the market now?

[@dasit6034]

correct

[@tradingmedic]

MegaMillions is boosting the cost of a ticket to $5 because unless you win a billion you really didn't win much.

[@kurtleimkuehler]

How will we know when bazooka hits?

[@pwee507]

Hey man thanks. You're right and whats a safer bet than they will keep making liquidity? Someone like Gary Wagner will tell you the same, what could be a safer bet than gold priced in a devalue-ing currency will go up in those metrics. Seriously, what could be a more sure thing?

[@specnaz01]

This is the consensus view.

[@BobbyLawblaw69]

The recession is inevitably inevitable. The liquidity creates inflation which inevitably leads to recession.

[@charlesdidonato5478]

Thanks brother! U are absolutely right and I am therefore buying precious metals, Bitcoin, and other commodities to offset this madness. However, I still have the majority of my money in big tech and energy stocks. 👍

[@optionfinder3663]

Tell me more about the Japanese Yen long. How are you putting that on? I am thinking Sony. It has a stock split coming.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

Not long Yen. Opposite.

[@optionfinder3663]

@@crowdedmarketreport Thank you! I guess the explanation is that they couldn't maintain hiking past .25%. The $ is going to end up higher relative to the yen for the forseeable future.

[@croonefamilyoutdoors3170]

What are your thoughts on Bitcoin

[@crowdedmarketreport]

x.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt/status/1842365616432300290

[@crowdedmarketreport]

Can't post the chart in the reply but it's getting crowded.

[@hamedsaloom9917]

@@crowdedmarketreport can you please explain in which direction, it looks like the short side, however commercials are strong.

[@ElementaryWatson-123]

a warning sign for bitcoin is divergence of inflows and prices, either the trend will reverse or bitcoin will collapse

[@ElementaryWatson-123]

@@hamedsaloom9917 positioning chart never tells the direction, it's an indication of a stress, which can be relieved in any direction

[@peterb9368]

So? Bullish on stock market right now?

[@jking1343]

There was a 50bps spread on the sofr 99 percentile last week. If that keeps happening then that reeks of credit risk imo. And credit risk in a house of cards is no bueno

[@timedowntube]

Exactly! Its just a question of destinations for the liquidity. Energy and Robotics make sense in the big picture. Nuclear (especially smr), high tech and supply chain automation. Blade Runner world..

[@uriabinenshtok]

"Bazooka_ed it"

[@orrdavey]

They can't afford a recession. And they can't afford the current high interest rates even without a recession. Own levered hard assets that owe fixed rate, long duration debt!

[@mattg8431]

If something cannot continue forever then it won't..someone smart said it long time ago The end won't be pretty

[@BourgeoisBazer]

Thanks Mr. Shapiro Most likely we will see all those things first hitting us in europe first. Just a guess

[@PeteTradez]

Nice Billy hat. Seen him a half a dozen times myself

[@Jay-jd1bi]

Its actually Dusty Stings, not Billy. Its a guitar shop in Seattle

[@PeteTradez]

@@Jay-jd1bi I see that now. Thanks for pointing it out

[@paulbraunstein9193]

unfortunately you can't create purchasing power, asset could go up forever but average people lose a small chunk at every money-printing, inflation uptick ... but until there are jobs nobody will care = figure it out mode till (even shit but some still better then none) jobs are available

[@rickyb4804]

ugh, new highs coming i guess

[@argyristheodoulos385]

I don't understand so your thesis is bear steepener into blow off top for equities? Bond prices seems like a regular bull steepener where they sell off on the rates cuts and start moving up into cooling inflation data which is coming this week... No evidence of a bear steepener yet. Sure jobs where hot but they also came in hot in the last 2 fed pivots so nothing out of the ordinary until bonds break the uptrend and yields move higher.. I think bonds are a good bet here.. It's obvious that they don't want yields to plummet to fast in every fed pivot...

[@DeFi-Macrodosing]

Loooooong the Ponzi! Get out before it blows. Got it.

[@joshuaburns3167]

If we ever get a down turn God only knows the level of crisis theyll lay on us at that point

[@stoneyj1a1]

They keep spending out of recession

[@MrNice2526]

I liked this video - If there was an extra like button, I'd hit that too. If my math serves me correctly, that'd be TWO THUMBS UP!!!

[@Michael_W87]

Thanks. It's the hardest part for me to invest I have to shut the part of my brain off that says deficit spending $2 trillion a year is not sustainable. I changed to "do this make me money in the timeframe im using" and its made all the difference. When the system breaks it will break but in the mean time I have to support myself as my trading funds my life.

[@overasiainadrone6017]

I've heard this kind of outlandish comments before. If you say it for emphasis that's perfectly okay. Audience get the point. But recession does happen *and* liquidity alone couldn't prevent it. Also, i'm not sure how a belief like this helps you make money.

[@niren4819]

The bond market has to fail in some way, but everybody is fighting over every auction

[@pnbmpnbm1155]

So they happily let the bond market collapse but they won't let the stock market collapse? I don't see the logic.

[@jasonrgann]

❤❤❤✝️✝️✝️

[@IntheForestofCA]

Look at Phil Anderson's 18.6 year real estate cycle for your answer, 2026ish

[@CalvincHoward]

Buy gold

[@jeangates3994]

2027

[@joshpowell3441]

Long

[@B_M]

Home prices went up 100% in 4 years and in some areas, they are still going up. This is absurd just like it was absurd during early 2000s. I remember in Miami, home prices were going up 20-30 per year between 2003-2006. Some of us remember how that ended. This won't be that different. Just make sure that you have a plan in place when SHI* hits the fan.

[@mikesymth7243]

what bullsh*t from Jason.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

huh

[@feboogi]

​@@crowdedmarketreportMost likely holding puts lol