Why You Probably Can't Predict Your Own Happiness

Humans generally have a good idea of whether something will make us happy or unhappy, but it turns out we’re not great at knowing exactly how much.
Hosted by: Hank Green
----------
Support SciShow by becoming a patron on Patreon: / scishow
SciShow has a spinoff podcast! It's called SciShow Tangents. Check it out at www.scishowtan...
----------
Dooblydoo thanks go to the following Patreon supporters:
Alex Hackman, Andrew Finley Brenan, Lazarus G, Sam Lutfi, D.A. Noe, الخليفي سلطان, Piya Shedden, KatieMarie Magnone, Scott Satovsky Jr, Charles Southerland, Patrick D. Ashmore, charles george, Kevin Bealer, Chris Peters
----------
Looking for SciShow elsewhere on the internet?
Facebook: / scishow
Twitter: / scishow
Tumblr: / scishow
Instagram: / thescishow
----------
Sources:
www.cmu.edu/di...
www.danielgilbe...
blogs.scientif...
www.ncbi.nlm.n...
psych.colorado....
pdfs.semantics...
www.researchga...
journals.plos....
journals.lww.c...
static1.square...
www.danielgilbe...
wjh-www.harvar...
psycnet.apa.org...

[@Azzarinne]

I wonder how often they saw the opposite, where people anticipated that they'd handle something well, and then actually have a complete melt-down and spend months as basically a husk. Not that I've ever experienced that... 👀

[@aajjeee]

👀

[@Pedro-tm6ue]

Yeah... 👀

[@lumpyfishgravy]

Only months? That's tolerable.

[@nunoneves3930]

Most people dnt call themselves happy because they rather ''look good on other people eyes''. But in reality those people are happy because thats their sort of happiness, they just need to embrace it. If they embrace the fact that they are happy by it they will be happier, society just tells you you shouldn't be happy by it. This is not my cup of tea I'm not like this but this is my explanation for this sort of people who live on social media etc etc

[@bjarnes.4423]

I like to flip a coin when facing difficult decisions. If you are happy with the result, you're good. If you are unhappy, take the other one!

[@ignys22]

I've been using this technique for sooo long! Glad I'm not the only one!

[@Zsokorad]

Is that you, Harvey?

[@Master_Therion]

Silt I use that too! ^_^

[@kindlin]

I've always wondered why this works. Cuz it does. As soon as I let someone else decide for me, or I randomly pick, I suddenly know exactly if I'm happy or not with the result. Where was this assuredness 10 seconds ago?

[@Master_Therion]

@@kindlin My theory of how it works is like this. Our conscious, decision making mind gets stuck weighing variables, dealing with "what ifs" and fears etc. But our subconscious mind is more free and imaginative. The emotional response to seeing the coin flip is a way for the subconscious to communicate with the conscious mind.

[@joyl7842]

The one person Vs. a panel making you feel unwanted is something I definitely experienced. A group of people telling you they don't want you is a lot worse.

[@Victoria-dh9vb]

I wonder about situations where you think you will feel a mild emotional response, but end up feeling really strongly. The number of times in my life where I was like, "I'll be fine...". And then the narrator of my life story adds over top of the scene, "Things were, indeed, not "fine"."

[@cataclysmicnothing]

Chronic depression makes it pretty easy to predict happiness levels.

[@GaryHamad]

because you set your bar so low things aren't that much exciting anymore, right?

[@funkyflames7430]

Gary Hamad because you’re never happy

[@msspoonr]

@@GaryHamad no, because you actually don't produce the neurotransmitters that make you feel good.

[@GaryHamad]

@@msspoonr ah so that's the smallest part of it

[@cobalius]

Maniac stuff as well

[@emilysmith2965]

“Even if things go wrong, they won’t be as bad as you expect.” Where was THIS message my entire life??? Seriously, we need to be teaching children this.

[@kristianmacmillan4456]

What about people with disorders like borderline personality disorder who have disproportionately exaggerated emotional responses to just about everything and have the self-awareness to understand that they will indeed fly off the handle like they usually do? I'm, uh, asking for a friend.

[@FaultAndDakranon]

Wow. Self aware borderline? That’s gotta feel awkward. But perhaps better than the alternative.

[@deep_fried_analysis]

@@FaultAndDakranon You can be self-aware, but it doesn't mean that you can control your feelings.

[@Adam-bq2vw]

Kristian MacMillan Separate advice should exist for people in special categories, but it often doesn’t.

[@cobalius]

@@deep_fried_analysis self-aware adhd people also can't really catch their butterflies and wasps

[@SC86Canuck]

Being in school, graduating college, never getting a carrier, having to eventually go to university which I'm in now feeling like a shitty old man in my mid 30's and very much disliking life - not due to learning, but due to professors assignments and their tremendous weight on my life. I cried on my very first day of school, and I haven't felt much different any other day of school. Not getting a career and having to go to school has been the bane of my existence in so many ways

[@CintreuseGrande]

Thank you for making this video, I have been struggling lately and you really helped to put things in perspective. Thank you Hank and all the SciShow team 💗 💗 💗

[@Drixel5]

It's all well and good to help balance your predictions of future emotional states by noting that things will "return to normal." However, what if "normal" is *exactly* what you don't want? What if "normal" is the thing that you need to *never be normal again*? In that context, a return to baseline is just plain not acceptable; and telling someone that their predictions of future emotional impact is poor to middling - unless they base their predictions on the current normal - can lead to very negative perspectives, and thoughts of hopelessness.

[@lunacouer]

I took it as "Things will be ok", when experiencing an upheaval. Or that the "new normal" will be ok. Like how Hank got diagnosed with ulcerative colitis. Definitely sucked and he had to go through a period of acceptance. Then it became the new normal, and he's ok now, after making adjustments around it.

[@i_Hally]

I thought I would like this video and I was right. The video editing and showing the study titles 👌

[@VoilaTadaOfficial]

Thank you SciShow Psych. I really needed this episode. Like you said at the end, when you're a giant ball of anxiety, it definitely helps to hear this.

[@uss_04]

Thanks for the captions. Makes it easier to fit in my daily SciShow Fix when I can caption up and 2x play speed

[@TheDegbring]

Can you do more videos about biases please? To me and probably many, this topic is super interesting!

[@uplink-on-yt]

Such an optimistic view: Things will get worse, but not as bad as you think.

[@angelareed225]

this was a particularly interesting video! i've seen almost every ep on this channel and this one had even more info that was new to me than usual, i'm really glad i watched it. thank you! more like this would be really great

[@lidette711]

This could not be more timely. :) I'm considering moving in with my long-time boyfriend and finding a job near his place. I'm currently a ball of anxiety and I'm paralyzed by indecision. A lot of bad things has happened to me last year and I can't help but think that things would go bad again. Thanks for this. I'll keep these concepts in mind. :)

[@comradecameron3726]

Anybody felling kinda “meh” about Christmas?

[@wyvern132]

Hm, maybe not procrastinating by watching scishow, and actually starting my homework won't be so bad. Thanks SciShow!

[@foofoo1445]

1:11 the number of participant recruited can't be a coincidence... The researchers definitely did it on purpose.

[@uss_04]

Isnt one of the keys to Happiness is to feel Useful and Wanted?

[@safir2241]

Y’all are great. Happiness is hard to understand nowadays with all the materialistic things people buy. Thanks for making a video about this.

[@AEther0238]

Thanks for cheering me up about that thing I was stressing over, Hank.

[@lilipad90]

"humans can get used to just about anything" - that dumb book that I had to read on high school that actually affects my thinking more than I'd like to admit

[@libertyfp]

Thanks! This helps a lot.

[@RangerRuby]

I can tell if I'm going to be happy or sad but I can not get a good scale. I always feel like if I get excited about something I get disappointed and If I and disappointed about something I get pleasantly surprised. Because that happens I use reverse phycology and it gets really confusing.

[@ricardoandres7503]

This video hit home with me, I'm going through a second breakup and although it may feel so bad at times, I guess it isn't as painful as I thought it would. We had great times and I'm happy to have a chance to be alone again. I passed from a relation to another and didn't gave my self the opportunity to learn how to be comfortably alone(Selflove). You can find a lot of things to do and enjoy;-;. Time heals you and makes you wiser and happier.

[@gibboustime]

QQs: Why is boredom and having to think hard unpleasant?

[@Gnidel]

Not to me.

[@sonkeschmidt2027]

It's rather that those become unpleasant when someone recognizes that he cat turn it off and feels forced to experience it.

[@sonkeschmidt2027]

@Brook Heyes I know what you mean. It's that thing with consciousness. If you tune it down, then you don't even know that you do anymore, because you tuned it down. Boredom is a useful tool to prevent us from doing that. Because of you tune it down enough and it becomes a habit, then it's really difficult to turn it up again. The pain of boredom keeps us on our heels to not sink into the little death of sleepy autopilot where your life is but a dream and you suddenly wake up old and regretful. I found some of the best tips in life in Buddhist philosophy. One I realized that I can do the most mundane autopilot things in a creative and engaging manner, I never again felt overwhelmed by boredom. Think about of, if doing the dishes and laundry is as fun and engaging as gaming/clubbing... That's winning the lottery of life. There is no road to joy that is more reliable and constant (and healthy)

[@cobalius]

@Brook Heyes why do i see so many adhdler? No offense, i might be another one. but the urge to communicate that, is kinda immense from what i see xD Also, unclear emotions and the buzzword 'boredom' are like tiny shiny flowers to them. Hhhmm smells like vanilla.

[@mangaluver1231]

I thought I had a good idea of what a break up would feel like and how long it would take to get over it; oh boy was I very wrong!

[@jefflaurence9957]

I clicked on this because I didn't know what "predicting happiness" actually meant. Thank you.

[@johnshoemaker5532]

You are awesome hank thanks for the knowledge lol you and the SciShow team have a great day

[@cathy-pz2to]

Note to self! Don't breakup!

[@chu8]

I have this suspicion. What if it isn't that things turn out to be less dramatic than predicted, but the act of predicting provides indirect experience which gives diminishing return on the direct experience?

[@grannykiminalaska]

Does any of this have to do with a persons disposition? My husband was always slightly more negative than I. It seems rejection & bad events has always been more extreme than my own.

[@Meganopteryx]

Thank you for making such helpful videos.

[@skyler4377]

Notes if you're assigned to do this in class and you lowkey procrastinated: 1. Affective forecasting: Predicting how we feel about the results of plans and decisions - Humans can generally sense when something will be good or bad overall, but make mistakes about how good or bad something will be and the lasting impression it may leave ex. Breaking up with a partner and not properly guessing how bad you'd feel after the breakup 2. Impact bias: Predicting that experiences will be much more intense than they actually turn out to be ex. being in love made people think a breakup would be much more devastating than it was 3. Focusing illusion: "nothing in life is as important as you think it is until you're thinking about it" ex. focusing on "ifs" after a breakup but ignoring outside factors that will be going on in their lives Solutions -Reminding yourself of outside factors outside of the decision you're questioning -Surrogates, opinions and advice from other people ex. a stranger telling you a food tastes pretty good!

[@nicolaiveliki1409]

I once had a spot on precognition of how I was going to feel. I was riding my bike, so it was going to be a great day. Fell and broke my arm! My dad bought me ice cream and a beer. Turned out alright ;-)

[@cuttlefishii]

I kinda needed this video lately, thanks!

[@josiwho1203]

I usually assume I will be disappointed and I'm right. But sometimes I'm even more disappointed than I thought and that is a bummer. xD

[@CaptainPicardStarfleet]

1:12 nice.

[@tytalbot3973]

You guys rock tho no joke thanks for helping educate the populous

[@kylefoster3779]

I predicted that I’d be happy with this video, and I was right.

[@jamiehay1027]

*The intro is so relatable lol*

[@AikiraBeats]

So true

[@daughterofthesun913]

Am I being too predictable to say I really need this video's concept? Thank you!

[@andromeda6712]

Now, how about I just keep my expectations at a constant low, so I'll always be pleasantly surprised

[@spennyb89]

Asking someone else how they feel in a certain situation might influence how the asker feels rather than increase accurate independent prediction.

[@arletbode4847]

This video came at the right time

[@werwolfking2000]

spot on

[@cssghostPL]

Nice golden-white shirt Hank! ;)

[@AifDaimon]

I can relate to the interview part.. I've been unable to find a job for the past few months..

[@AxeManAnthony]

I highly recommend reading "A Guide to the Good Life: The Ancient Art of Stoic Joy" by William Braxton Irvine

[@erroneum]

I almost never make accurate predictions about the magnitude of my emotional response because I almost never make predictions about my emotional resonances. One can only go so long straddling the line connecting "meh" and apathy before situation stops being overwhelmingly the dominant driver of emotion (yes, I have burst into laughter because of an entirely unrelated thought popping into my head when nobody was talking to me).

[@user-vn7ce5ig1z]

Pro-tip: always expect the absolute worst for everything and you'll always be pleasantly surprised. 😉

[@SgtSupaman]

I predict my emotional detachment with virtually perfect accuracy.

[@ayshb2150]

I hope you're proven wrong. 💟

[@waxwinged_hound]

I'm actually extremely good at knowing how horrible I'll feel about something. I was terrified my gf would replace me with a prettier girl who is actually worth something. I also knew it would happen. I was right. It was exactly as horrible as I thought. It happened almost a year and a half ago, and I'm still a shell of my former self. I'm only still alive because I'm a goddamn coward that's afraid of dying, even though I know that dying would make the pain go away. Then again, it's very very easy to predict something that happens over and over and over again.

[@emilysmith2965]

Jesus Christ, honey, go to therapy. “Who is actually worth something”? Sounds like your problem is a soul-crushing lack of self-worth, especially since it is only tied to your looks and not your abilities, values, or work. And look, I get that those things are hard to cultivate in an intensely sexist society that has probably put you through other trauma that I’m not currently aware of. But you need to understand that painting some beautiful fool as “actually worth something” (and implying in the process that you yourself are worthless) is a self-fulfilling prophecy here. What do YOU want out of your life? Because I guarantee your life goal as a six-year-old wasn’t modeling. You probably wanted to contribute something more substantial to the world before a bunch of gullible authority figures - who were not stupid but WERE susceptible to being blinded by social norms above actual happiness - told you that the world revolved around being pretty, finding a male partner regardless of how bad he treats you and/or only doing things that garner masculine approval. Sound familiar? Haven’t you been told that since day one? Are you maybe starting to realize that this is not an accurate predictor of your future happiness? Even if I were a therapist, I couldn’t force you to understand this in a text-only format; you’re probably going to need someone to comfort you actively in person, teach you actionable skills in person, and work to aid you in repairing this almost nonexistent sense of self-worth in person. I genuinely hope you figure it out.

[@ArtFreak17]

This reminds me of the concept of "regression to the mean". Kyle Hill from the channel Because Science mentioned in one of his Footnotes episodes. I wrote down what he said on that idea: "Regression to the Mean is usually in medicine as a statistical statement that says no matter how extreme things are, they will, more likely than not because they are extreme, regress - go back to the mean/average. So, if you are having the best day of your life, more likely than not, the next day is probably not also going to be the best day of your life - it’s going to go back to an average… which sounds like it’s depressing. But, how I like to think of it, even on the worst day of your life, even when you feel like nothing can get any better or you feel sick or tired - like nothing is worth it… more likely than not, when you’re feeling your worst, your best is more probable than [even] more worse." I especially liked that last statement as a means of keeping perspective. It's optimistic but also realistic. No feeling is forever (this can be distinct from mood, but sometimes you need to take good/middle times for what they are, but also how easy it can be to over-value the bad times. Often there is transience to everything, and it's usually a mixed bag rather than uniformly black or white. Finding the good things can be a lifesaver.)

[@thepantherfan52]

what if the person you are getting the info from is an anxious person and they give an anxious view, making the other person anxious and causing a feedback loop

[@TinaLynn]

I have a prediction that may be accurate from personal experience. I predict that if anyone else becomes a patron on this youtube site, they will be more interested and engaged in upcoming videos and look forward to more.....

[@Roll587]

I KNEW Dan Gilbert would be a citation.

[@MysticalOrb522]

I call BS I can always predict my happiness, because I never have any.

[@benjamincox9762]

I think that the reason it’s so easy for us to see why it’s more difficult that the person would be more upset is because of something mentioned in another SciShow video- hindsight bias. This bias can make it easy for the audience to say, “Of course the people who will be rejected by the panel will be more upset” because we are told that rather than the people in the experiment who have to look at both possibilities...

[@cobalius]

I hate the focus illusion. I can't really get out of it on command

[@Myk3916]

Hank!!! Colonoscopy?!?!! Really?;?!

[@jepleure]

With his UC, I'd imagine that colonoscopies are a fairly common thing to dread for him. LOL

[@AllFloofAndNoThoughts]

Given that its finals week, I think I fairly accurately predicted my "happiness" level.

[@mimimarcus]

Jokes on you, SciShow, because I have no happiness to be had. I'm dead inside

[@AidanRatnage]

I got hyped for Zelda Breath of the wild and I felt about how I thought I would When I played it for the first time.

[@belindaweber7999]

Kinda wonder if the letter from a stranger/friend might be a form of priming?

[@Thecooltubeisms]

do you use psychology when making scishow videos

[@joeycubes68]

Depression at its finest

[@BunnyKitKat]

How do animals (humans too) learn their names?

[@maxmusterman3371]

interesting. the question is what evolutionary advantage does this overhyping have.

[@NewMessage]

Because I need better tarot cards for Christmas?

[@theincarnationofboredom207]

I experienced this recently. I asked out someone and I was terrified that if he said no I'd get depressed again. And as you can probably guess he did say no, but because of how he rejected me I actually ended up walking away happier than before.

[@celinak5062]

So how will I feel after Article 13

[@heyelliew]

I don't strive for "happiness," I shoot for "content."

[@MelancholyCrypto]

Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it -Dan Kahneman. I absolutely feel this way often when intoxicated with cannabis.

[@marymurphy1429]

Call out post for my anxiety, stop making me think things are going to be worse than they are.

[@stayinawesum]

Why professionals like psychologist scientist etc have to come up with so difficult names 0:25 , we make works and its meaning

[@davidbuschhorn6539]

If you're IN LOVE with the person you break up with, it's MUCH worse than if you "only" love them. If you think loving someone is the same as _being in love with someone,_ you'll never understand the argument I'm making and no amount of explaining will help.

[@thisaccountisdead9060]

Person A: "How bad is it?" Person B: "You don't wanna know?" Person A: "Come on - just tell me the truth.. what-ever it is, I just want to know the truth. That's all that matters to me. Ok?" Person B: "....The whole universe is a lie." Person A: Person B: The Universe:

[@tytalbot3973]

Wow

[@Tockrellman]

This actually helped my anxiety

[@Junokaii]

Happiness? What's that?

[@therabbithat]

I know why video makers want people to comment, the more people coment tehe more people will see your video.. but why does youtube care how many people comment?

[@JaMaMaa1]

Yeah like when I fail my exams because I'm not studying

[@unleashingpotential-psycho9433]

Being happy is all about pursuing the goals in life that brings you satisfaction.

[@Error-eb9gv]

They chose 69 subjects? Really 69......60...........9

[@threestooges37]

Can you please schedule another colonoscopy for me?

[@lazyperfectionist1]

Who's to say, for certain, when one is actually "in love?" What is love? How is _romantic_ love different from _family_ love? There is only one person to whom I ever have occasion to say, "I love you," and it's _never_ in sincerity, but if I don't say it, she'll have a total meltdown and fill my life with unnecessary complications. Is this what the words are?

[@RialuCaos]

It's when the thought of them intrudes every moment of your day. If you have to question it, then you're not "in love."

[@ChrisD4335]

i'm usually pretty correct except ya know most of the time.

[@mikerphone.]

How do i ask dead people what being dead is like? I was thinking about trying it.

[@sahinyasar9119]

no one can predict own feel

[@masterimbecile]

You used Predicting Feelings! ... it wasn't very affective.

[@princeedmunddukeofedinburg]

LOL, colonoscopy joke

[@prescott231233]

Jesus... why is this comment section so sad?

[@Error-eb9gv]

This makes me feel much better. Maybe having my leg removed because of a snake bite might not be so bad.

[@ikarienator]

So should I marry my girlfriend or become a lawyer then?

[@AikiraBeats]

Yes you should if that is your hearts desire

[@User24x]

"Which is eaiser to replace."

[@christelheadington1136]

If you have a girlfriend who IS a lawyer, it would be easier.

[@angelkitty11]

why not both?

[@AdmiralGrak]

you should marry your lawyer and become a girlfriend

[@Zolarmew]

I think it's more of a confirmation bias if you ask someone's opinion first ....

[@Vicioussama]

Yes I can, because I'm never happy. And it seems I'm not the only one that gets to feel like a waste of human space, yay!

[@teevee92]

How about the prediction that in today's public speaking you won't actually bottom out-oh wait, it was just the train-wreck you expected it to be.