Will SA be a FAILED STATE by 2030? | Claude Baissac (Eunomix)

Given South Africa’s current governance failures and policy paralysis, what is the risk of the country becoming a failed state over the next decade? A new report by consultancy, Eunomix, explores possible scenarios for SA's economic and political system.
David Ansara of the CRA speaks to Claude Baissac, CEO of Eunomix, about the report.
Download the full report here:
eunomix.com/cm...
Visit the Eunomix website: eunomix.com/
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[@RomanoPlescia]

It's already a failed state! Virtually 80% of ANC run municipalities have collapsed, water & sanitation has collapsed, eskom has collapsed, Denel, SAA, Prasa, Transnet etc etc etc.

[@johnkennedy68]

The New World Order is here. From the day Satan was kicked out of heaven, he has attempted to create the New World Order. Evil can have a religious face and kill you. People must wake up, and ask God to help them. Search for! A powerful prayer for our president and other leaders!

[@johanweakley2658]

We are a failed state now. I respect these analysts, and the technical financial analysis they do is fundamental, but the man on the street is experiencing all the elements of a failed state. Fewer and fewer jobs, government clamping down on the citizenry because they stole everything, and corruption stepping up. High earners are leaving the country, never to return. I cannot listen to one more speech by an ANC politician, my sanity is at risk!

[@flarethefox9836]

The annoying thing is it’s so hard to move. But as soon as I can, I will.

[@HolisticHealthEducation]

What??? You mean, it’s not a failed state already?? Then please, what still needs to happen to fulfill the criteria? Because from where I am looking, there is nothing left to fail?

[@tracyallen7020]

Google fragile state formerly failed state index and it will show you the criteria for were South Africa

[@johnbutler3141]

Its like calling a VET when you see road kill. Too friking late

[@Neo_Rain146]

This isn’t even a question to be asked. Of course it’s heading to failed state status the and 2030 is being optimistic. With the latest round of downgrades and SA’s fiscal position I give it about 5 years. Politically you can say SA is heading further and further down the communist black hole but that would be simplifying things fact is the government there is so inept and corrupt that no correction will ever happen. Taking A complete collapse is inevitable and then only then can different groups in SA rebuild with their own Interests taking priority. You can’t have 4% of the population paying all the income tax and think that is sustainable.

[@pikipikioverland]

Yes! And there’s not a single positive point that can turn ZA back on that road

[@johnkennedy68]

The New World Order is here. From the day Satan was kicked out of heaven, he has attempted to create the New World Order. Evil can have a religious face and kill you. People must wake up, and ask God to help them. Search for! A powerful prayer for our president and other leaders!

[@BillClinton228]

2030 is very generous, I give it until 2026... and it wont be a failed state like Venezuela, it' will be a failed state like Somalia, no government and warlords ruling every town.

[@frankvandermerwe1487]

John Kennedy Get some help.

[@colinhendra7635]

I would say we right on the edge of a precipise right now.

[@OmniAtlantic]

FUCK I thought it already was.

[@nigelnaylor2556]

A very good talk and what Claude outlined is the most likely outcome. Bear in mind that a "Special Economic Zone" is really just a form of Enclave as Frans Cronje has postulated. But can the ANC keep crony capitalism out of the SEZ's? They too will want their slice of the action, so this too will be a very bumpy road. Maybe Cape Independence is a much easier and quicker route. David, please comment on this. I see there is a very interesting add on the Daily Friend on Cape Independence.

[@CentreForRiskAnalysis]

Hi Nigel, this is an astute observation, thank you. SA already has an SEZ framework, but apart from a few incentives, these do not go far enough to drive investment. e.g. BEE and labour laws still apply, you need to incorporate a separate SEZ entity that has limited cross-trading with the original entity, etc. We commented on the growing popularity of the Cape Independence idea in our recent client Risk Alert. Please email me on david [ at ] cra-sa.com and I will send it to you. Thanks, David Ansara

[@johnkennedy68]

The New World Order is here. From the day Satan was kicked out of heaven, he has attempted to create the New World Order. Evil can have a religious face and kill you. People must wake up, and ask God to help them. Search for! A powerful prayer for our president and other leaders!

[@zevlove612]

@@CentreForRiskAnalysis 2020 SA still topped FDI flows in africa and had the most FDI projects....

[@margyrowland]

God help South Africa 🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺

[@davidpetzer5725]

Cape independance will help

[@TheJuryIsOut]

Eleven minutes of hard hitting truths. I couldn't disagree with this fact based and objective assessment even if I tried to. This needs to go viral. The anc has it's very own opposition party within with the various factions tearing each other and the Country apart. For as long as this exists and the anc is in power the Country does not have a hope in hell of any form of recovery. Even the "moderates" within the party are incapable of any reforms to avert the scenario alluded to. How is a coherent fiscal and monetary policy even possible under such a scenario? Should they lose power you can be assured that they will not sit on the sidelines and allow a more capable party/group of individuals to do the necessary assuming that the lunatic fringe do not get their turn at the feeding trough! Waiting for nature to take it's course is definitely not going to work. Strong interventions by the public and big business is needed. The direct elections route is definitely a very viable solution imo. Big business does not seem to be Big enough in holding government to account and have demonstrated time and again that they will just tow the line unless we see a situation like when weekend special des van rooyen was foisted on the Country and the resultant market turmoil affecting their bottom lines. It seems like the battle for the Country's survival is largely being fought by civil society groups and private individuals with no assistance from big business. We've seen what happens when some brave Corporate executive calls out the government - absolutely no support from his peers and for as long as big business do not grow a set of balls to tackle the problems head-on collectively we are almost guaranteed of a failed state BEFORE 2030. If one considers the amount of time spent on infighting within the anc, the competency levels of the office bearers and obscene amounts of money spent on the various commissions is there any time left for any real work assuming that these individuals are fit for purpose? So to sum up.... Civil society + "big" business + Direct elections = hope for a better SA. The days of a "governing" party is way past it's sell by date. The people need to select individuals of whom there are many capable and competent ones to run the Country.

[@crusader2.0_loading89]

No, by 2021

[@louisjwiese5515]

That's very optimistic. I think it will happen before thát (failed state)

[@willemwikkelspies7732]

Relatively predictable. When mediocrity is painted up as enlightened purity , you are guaranteed to fail . AFFIRMATIVE ACTION & BBBEE caused this . Either a 2 year sunset clause is implemented to completely eradicate AA and BEE or face starvation and cannibalism

[@johnkennedy68]

The New World Order is here. From the day Satan was kicked out of heaven, he has attempted to create the New World Order. Evil can have a religious face and kill you. People must wake up, and ask God to help them. Search for! A powerful prayer for our president and other leaders!

[@kynismos]

South Africa is just becoming a normal African state.

[@benniemabudafhasi5713]

We are screwed Royally!!!

[@nerinebeaumont4498]

It already is in that state and getting worse!!!!!

[@OmniAtlantic]

Are we there yet.?

[@UrielX1212]

It already is

[@Benone5456]

It’s already a failed state. What are you talking about

[@kenneth8048]

This would have been an appropriate view 5 years ago - it’s way too late now. The last few years have been a perfect storm for SA, global challenges, the pandemic etc. And over and above these out of our control issues - we have had pandemic corruption and outright theft of money and state assets, very poor leadership and a ruling party that are totally incompetent and only appear focused on stealing faster and faster before the party ends - the saddest reality this chaos and failed state scenario suites some of these ANC thugs, as they believe a desperately poor population is easier to manipulate

[@jimmycook842]

So true

[@keithtait7049]

Lol 2030 - try 2021. Not sure why we need this video, it's plain to see with our own eyes.

[@Straightdeal]

I watched a video which predicted that SA would be one of 5 failed a failed states by 2040. The others are Egypt, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.

[@Straightdeal]

Sorry, one of 5 failed states.

[@MilkyH12]

Whatifaltist I reckon?

[@israelshabangu7583]

When Saudi Arabia is building a 500 billion city called Neom a linear city these predictions are flawed.

[@israelshabangu7583]

North Korea failed long ago

[@jamesansell4081]

No! Much sooner!!!

[@johnkennedy68]

The New World Order is here. From the day Satan was kicked out of heaven, he has attempted to create the New World Order. Evil can have a religious face and kill you. People must wake up, and ask God to help them. Search for! A powerful prayer for our president and other leaders!

[@wouterdewet1155]

If people could predict the future....No, no-one can predict the future. Educated guesses that's all it is. Its very good for people to have hope in SA. Hope will always be all that we have. Do not let fear guide and lead your life, you have no idea what the future holds, and neither do the experts.

[@tracyallen7020]

Very naive .Sorry I think people need to participate in and plan their own destiny Hope is not enough.

[@yr2180]

Watching this July 2021. Started too soon

[@thembelandesi4741]

Look now in 2023. It’s ova 🇿🇦

[@janvanheerden265]

You are optimistic.

[@jnicolettebailey]

South Africa won't survive 2021

[@hlengiwemasondo2858]

We 8 months down you right

[@israelshabangu7583]

But we already done with 2021 why are whites fighting so hard to see SA fail.

[@janco333]

Ok, 2022, south africa survived

[@Kameruner]

Well between the Afrikaners, Blacks, British South Africans, Rhodesians, Zulus, Apartheid Extremists, ANC Extremists, and all the cultural differences. I'm surprised this hasn't happened sooner, during and/or after Apartheid.

[@johnkennedy68]

The New World Order is here. From the day Satan was kicked out of heaven, he has attempted to create the New World Order. Evil can have a religious face and kill you. People must wake up, and ask God to help them. Search for! A powerful prayer for our president and other leaders!

[@ericcastle7296]

True L O l

[@ep6263]

what do you call the current situation.....democracy.......hahaha

[@brucewindell5885]

We are a failed state right now.

[@claudedebaissac312]

Thank you so much for having me. I must confess though. I am a fraud and a con-artist. I have been squatting at a luxury residence in Johannesburg for about 9 months and currently owe over half a million rand in rent (which I have no intention of paying). I have also caused tens of thousands of rands worth of damage to the property. I am very good at pretending like I am a successful entrepreneur and I know what I am talking about. But the truth is that I actually don't have two cents to rub together. My views on economics should not be taken seriously and neither should my company - Eunomix.

[@marleneclough3173]

Way before that

[@johnconway6976]

EFF has all the rhetoric of the Khmer Rouge. Third World totalitarian state seems a likely outcome

[@harryfyf6101]

Its already a failed state with 30 mil people out of jobs. The financial markets are kept up artificially.

[@ericcastle7296]

WE FAILED ALL READY L O L

[@basedsigma5634]

Already f"^ked up beyond repair....

[@pitster1105]

If the economic situation doesn’t improve for blacks and colored then yes it will be.

[@ericcastle7296]

No you made it fail l o l

[@susanlubbe4052]

It has already failed!!

[@nicoarnold2200]

I think the question should not be about 2030 but 2023.

[@kasper7203]

2022.. Yes.. South Africa crossed the threshold for turning around and the country will go through some form if collapse.

[@larrymeyer2917]

Guess there is more than Claude that knows the slide is on a disastrous path. And supports my previous comment which suggests its only the ANC that can fix this, EFF will just accelerate the failure. This path is exactly what Clem Sumter predicted as the low road in 1992 in the ESKOM presentations that I attended, oh well to be honest just a bit of a slower path due to the positive impact of Mandela as president and lasted into the 2000’s. If Ramaphosa does not realize the impact of neglecting to follow a 180 deg path soon, he too will be left with nothing he inherited in the early years of so called democracy.

[@ca9968]

Nah, a failed state 9 months after this video was posted...i`d kinda call that progress...sort of...

[@vleiratfilms2020]

Good to see a bit of a facelift on the production side .. cool! David Is more relaxed too .. very cool! Your guests need to get their framing right too .. there’s nothin* so distracting to an interesting discussion than someone talking from the bottom of the screen. Otherwise a great show ... and of course lots of home truths .. thanks!

[@aarongunnz9513]

We are already a failed state

[@LesegoMakgorogo]

Set and done

[@liatpittaway4372]

we are a failed state already

[@NG-mz8gk]

Been a failed state for a few years, but will be a junkyard by 2022 ...

[@vut_zarco]

Audio is kak

[@josetheman239]

South Africa will still be here in 2030 and like most of the world it will be better. This Eunomix is just a consulting firm and when have those ever been right? The danger with this kind of narrative is that it keeps ordinary South African's from building or investing and then they loose out. I would have been so much wealthier if I had put money in the markets or in real estate just 2 years ago but because of this fear mongering I'm only starting now and behind by a lot.

[@princesskitty1712]

You sound highly emotional and I don’t think you understand much.

[@israelshabangu7583]

Problem these people do a race analysis not an economic analysis. Their views are skewed and flawed because they think every black person supports ANC. If you were took race out of everything we will win and whites only care for their own interests thus why this analysis has some strong racial connotations to it.

[@yankees29]

How has that worked out for you?😂😂 now that the electric grid has failed too? SA is a complete joke with the leadership it has now.😂

[@jackbananas3204]

Hahahahah bye bye zulus Morocco rules africa 🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦🇲🇦

[@lindambasa4963]

You won’t be part of a united Africa with all its mineral wealth and fertile soil. All chocolate processing will be done in Africa. We won’t exporters of raw materials. Manufacturing and processing of raw materials will done in Africa. I wonder what will happen to you, Europe and America

[@tracyallen7020]

It's always no to have dreams.

[@antonioafonso9910]

Wishful thinking.Chocolate processing 😂😂😂

[@jimmycook842]

@@antonioafonso9910 The only way to fix this country is for the people of all races to bring a Arab spring to this ANC cartel and neutralize the useless police force and army to seize control. jail every one of them from Cyrel all the way down to the Mayers and ward counters start again with a new truly democratical country that serves all the people