Will Valve destroy your Armory investment?

[@bladerunner4425]

This really goes into dark direction. Even if these collections will be time limited, lets say for 6months, reds will go for around 100€, pinks for ~22€, purples ~5€, even before 6months mark. If it'll stay longer it will be much, much worse.

[@shawarmacs2]

Im not gonna say unfortunately

[@taakerr]

so just like skins used to be? i like that

[@xXPBSXx1]

i think if red will be around 1000 then pink will be at least 200 plus minus cause otherwise you could just buy 10 ppink skins for 220 and upgrade to 1000 skin which never happend

[@bladerunner4425]

@@xXPBSXx1 you misread

[@xXPBSXx1]

@@bladerunner4425 oh yeah my bad :D

[@rjdsouza7]

The market is forever changed because of the 7 day restriction when you buy an item or get it from a collection/case

[@diederichgarz6317]

nah. just think about recency bias. the moment something new drops everyone rushes to buy passes. most people will not go for passes for a long time.

[@ptreeNA]

100% as I was editing I was thinking about how I should've mentioned that the daily market dumps are going to decrease in size and they already have just in these last few days. If we get another limited item I would expect another dump period but still not as massive as what we have just seen.

[@ihatepinecones99]

They could bring back missions that grant star xp for completion, but if you do all 100 missions you get a diamond coin or something.

[@knokd_]

Good video bro. I agree this isn’t the same as an operation. So we really don’t know what the market will be like of these items

[@ptreeNA]

can't figure out why the end screen seems to be showing up for me around 8:30 can anyone tell me if it's the same for you?

[@candyy12345]

end screen shows up 8:53 for me

[@ptreeNA]

tyty

[@parkourguyyy]

One thing on my mind is when the honeymoon phase of people who have been starved for content fades away, how many people will be buying passes and farming stars? I'm willing to bet the amount of new supply coming into the market will start to diminish pretty soon. We may have already seen the biggest supply increase if thats the case

[@gachigasm3210]

Charms are surprisingly pricy, but I wonder if it has a chance to stay that way. I feel like its the one item that has a chance to just permanently stay in the shop, and the fact that you get 3 detachment tools for each one..

[@ptreeNA]

not being consumable is the only reason I haven't gone all in. With all the different patterns, usability across multiple weapons and fairly high star cost it has everything you need but man.... there's going to be so many. I think if we get team charms for the major that's where the money will be

[@TheKimoLofi]

⁠@@ptreeNAagents aren’t consumeable either

[@dirtysecretcs]

Always a pleasure to watch your take on the CS economic. Great stuff - keep it up man! Can you link the guide with all the different charm patterns, I can't find a useful one?

[@ptreeNA]

steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3347881530 this is the guide I was using for the die cast I don't know if these values are replicated through other charms or not I haven't gone hunting yet

[@yoanwastaken]

I wonder what's the best way to spend your stars. As of now it is redeeming charms but they're probably going to crash next week when the market hold expires.

[@ptreeNA]

ya I expect charms to die off so honestly.... idk nothing really stands out as something that you could farm on multiple account for free money. I think as supply dries up the cases might be a little low based on the 108k cases that were opened in the last 24 hours. Now that the initial dump is gone and people farming went mostly into cases, if people keep opening these prices are going to creep up

[@sldbdb571]

What is your opinion about the inferno 2018 collection?

[@ptreeNA]

if it gets replaced great because of the fade. With the Armory I could see valve replacing the collection without taking the map out (I don't see inferno leaving the active duty pool anytime soon) so the chance of inferno 2018 getting replaced soonish is possible. The pinks in that collection aren't mainstream so I wouldn't touch them personally

[@gaborungor6788]

Hi i like this Deagle Heat Treated with Shadow blue and can u help? what is the pattern and float? i want to buy another one Thanks for Help

[@ptreeNA]

the one I have is pattern 310 and 0.296 float which is why the purplish color doesn't show very well. I'm sure it's not the best "purple pattern" or whatever they're calling it but even if it was I wouldn't overpay for really any heat treated atm 👍

[@Doenerwerfer]

i invested in broken fang cases. that is an investment

[@Mahmoud-tg3xx]

I do play couple games every day, I'm thinking about getting as much passes as I can and just buy cases and hold them for some years do you have any thoughts on that? I think it's pretty safe unless something big happens with the lows and stuff but from supply and demand perspective it's unlikely to go lower than 90cents because if it does it will be unprofitable and no one will buy it with the stars which will make supply go lower and price up so it will probably just stabilize around $1 until it gets removed. I also think that the armory being a yearly think is possible ofc I would like it to be like 6 months but if it's more than 1 year I think valve risks the failure of the next rotations as many people who get burned in this might not want to get burned again in the next one.

[@Mahmoud-tg3xx]

I'm also betting on valve fixing the anticheat and the subtick issues which would bring life back into the game

[@Raines42]

These skins will all be worthless. Its insane to think otherwise. The M4 Fade will be around 100€ and the Deagle about the same price as the MP5 Lab Rat.

[@Honeythief__]

At the very least, the classified skins will be good trade up filler if the prices continue to crash

[@ptreeNA]

big true actually but that kinda hurts my tradeup filler stash :(

[@D0P1C3]

you cant compare items from armory to agents becouse back then there were less players and "investors" IF armory items stay too long without change it ends up as RMR 2020 stickers there were for sale for too long

[@D0P1C3]

also what site do you use to see how many of each items is out there?

[@yoanwastaken]

​@@D0P1C3He uses floatdb

[@ptreeNA]

The comparison was just that charms could be overlooked and even after a long time of availability they could wiggle into a profitable position. That being said the die cast attention recently will singlehandedly boost the supply of these charms as many people seem to be hunting it, but there may be a world.

[@D0P1C3]

@@ptreeNA well we can hope that its true and they climb in value over time for now gambling how to still made money back is to open craft stickers and geting that googly eye 15€ money returned for pass and rest is "profit" or geting 20 cases selling them and after steam cut and pass cost profiting like 2€ at most

[@simtelefon]

Knowing how lazy Valve are these armory collections could be there for years completely untouched. Investing is a risk.

[@ptreeNA]

100% I think 1 year is completely logical and they might feel the same but if they don't do anything for 2 years no one should be surprised either. I sure love dealing with valve as my overlord lmao

[@timchikun]

but who is gonna spend hundreds of dollars of passes if u just can buy the item on the market, i think not many people will constantly put money into it

[@seeeLAH1]

if items dont change i quit

[@xdognatex9897]

Yes they are destroying all investments..

[@rarestbanana]

“The armory is not a dead investment, you can’t just look at it the same way as an operation “. Couldn’t agree more. I’m glad you have this take on it in a sea of “armory is doomed”

[@ptreeNA]

people have reason to be scared and I wont be the guy to buy in early but I wont write it off either. Time will tell type beat

[@tuskutin]

SELL SELL SELL SELL jokes aside i do believe the armory is going to be a somewhat permanent thing, with maybe a rotation in a year or so. holding long-term seems sketchy. Might hold my cases for a week since people probably wont redeem them too much in the ongoing week and thr price might go up

[@ptreeNA]

I'm kinda banking on cases hitting a little bit higher than they are right now for a period but not much higher, seems like many items have settled and with passing months probably a slow bleed

[@tuskutin]

​@@ptreeNA sounds perfectly reasonable, but lets see if the market cares about reasonable behavior...

[@kroooassant9899]

No Vac 3.0, enough said.

[@z333st]

u must be eating good off atlanta 2017 tho

[@Tom-eq5bz]

So they killed of Operation investments, hold the old stuff I guess. For now I will sell all my cases, i have bad feeling what the future will bring. Its all about money now

[@nnarquise]

Valve destroyed my armory investment when I wasted 25 stars for a BS Heat Treated lol

[@ptreeNA]

same lmao

[@AONTrappy]

Valve does not care about the secondary market at large.

[@candyy12345]

we are COOKED brother

[@ptreeNA]

it aint ideal I can tell you that but I do enjoy seeing my old operation items going up, case unboxing numbers up this week and expensive stickers getting applied. The armory might be cooked for a long time but you don't have to 👌

[@candyy12345]

@@ptreeNA staying hopeful for some actual content update either after major or next year. surely cs2 isnt just a cash cow now and we can have good things too ,right....

[@ptreeNA]

the updates to model movements have made a massive difference and I actually enjoy playing. That being said MAN do I crash often and the map pool is garbage. Some optimization to performance and net code I don't think I will ever go back to cs:go 10 mans but maybe that's just me. I didn't know how much blowing smokes open actually mattered until I played cache again

[@Hansgans]

Valve sucks... They care only about their money, not about players or investors.

[@night3094]

200$ for m4 fade 💀💀💀💀

[@ptreeNA]

personally I think prices have mostly settled but time will tell. can't say I would complain about that though

[@Fluskar]

shiiit i aint complaining

[@bladerunner4425]

According to previous operations data, even if these collections will stay only for a few months, the reds will go a little under 100€

[@ValoClips7]

Bro upload faster 🥺😭

[@ptreeNA]

didn't trust anything until we got more context. Charm patterns, fade prices, heat treated supply, devs talking about no end date, cases instantly crashing. All would've been missed if I pumped something out early (at least I wouldn't have predicted it)