How Writing My Thesis on League of Legends Made Me Stop Playing

Item Analysis now available on Coachless: coachless.gg/
⇩ More Information ⇩
// VIEWER SUPPORT
Special thanks to Henry, Cyber XY, Tareyus, Shen, Daemoss420 and all River Shens for supporting the channel! Channel memberships allow you to support me and also receive various perks. If you're interested, click the Join-button for more details.
// LEARN SHEN FROM ME
► How to Climb to Diamond with Shen: • How to ACTUALLY Climb ...
► The Art of Shen (Ultimate Shen Guide): • The Art of Shen - An I...
► In-Depth Shen Guide: www.mobafire.c...
// WHERE TO FIND ME
► Twitch: / xpetu
► Twitter: / xpetu
► Discord: / discord
Business inquiries: [e-mail]
#LeagueOfLegends #Challenger #Shen

[@xPetu]

Due to popular demand, here's a Google drive link to my thesis: drive.google.com/file/d/1CkYW0JdMfXXcczFvqjXcfp64D8eMIq1d/view?usp=sharing Huge thank you to the 1,000 people who subscribed to Coachless in its early stage. We changed our default subscription period from 90 to 30 days now, making the Item Analysis feature more accessible. Free version is now also implemented: coachless.gg/items

[@Shadow-bk1im]

Just gotta say watching this video and I remember seeing that specifically sorc boots, into mejais soulstealer, into rabadon on vladimir has a 76% winrate. This was the first time I realized this since well 76% winrate is absolutely bonkers and mejais is only ever useful especially as a first item when you are absolutely dumpstering your opponent. Plus if you are playing a late game champ like vlad and are winning that hard in the early game it makes sense there is almost 0 way you can lose besides you having a stroke or all your teammates having one.

[@LuMnOsITi]

How about for a video title: "How xPetu's Thesis on League of Legends made me stop watching his videos"

[@scottmadsen9964]

I will be waiting for you GG I hope you can find a good Senna otp to learn from as well I'd love to see how one of my favorite champions is itemized i have been too scared to comeback to league since they made the extra nerfs to her damage.

[@TheEternalStudent69]

xPetu, you inspired me to dive into the world of math and discover it's wonders. I don't plan on majoring in it but the esoteric and fundamental knowledge I have gained has been partly because of you. When I become a crackpot engineer/scientist, I'll remember you.

[@iBeo01]

Thank you for your analysis.

[@christhis9597]

Bro is so invested in shen he is writing his masters thesis and paper on him

[@guilhermemalavolta4491]

Bro, as an engineer, it's umbeliveble nice to hear you bringing biases and data to the conversation! YOU FKING ROCKS, SHEN GOD!

[@The_Lightless]

Every professional speaks about biases. Otherwise they aren’t a professional.

[@MasterAaron]

Haven't watched you in years, but I always saw you as a big brained indiviudal. You got me to Diamond in about two months. Thanks man, I also quit this game a long time ago. Love

[@furrysheep-q1z]

why did you quit?

[@balakethedog]

@@furrysheep-q1z is that even a question

[@oloyolopl]

@@furrysheep-q1z Why wouldn't you quit

[@99allthetime]

Best advice out here rn I wanna see Xpetu have fun playing Space Marine2

[@efegokselkisioglu8218]

​@@furrysheep-q1z the game takes up too much time, toxic player base, stupid chat restrictions, champions can't be balanced for all levels of play, items and champions change, so the game loses a part of it that maked you want to play, the game overall reduces your mental state if you care the least about it. I quit due to these. I made it to Challenger in the turkish server, probably corralates to masters low grandmasters in eu, playing nidalee top with grasp. They removed the item that made it viable, divine sunderer

[@MrRevillo]

I love how when you start looking at data and statistics how easy it is that you remove yourself so much from the original domain, that you forget to look at what the objects really do in the domain.

[@manphan6689]

what are you talking about

[@nathanlecam941]

I stopped playing but i still enjoy your videos. Because you don't only put your heart and passion in them, but also your intelligence and you make it understandable for anyone. Thank you and good luck on your research!

[@pescegerman]

rito, just give petu a job

[@BouncerMcDayGreen]

Yeah. Phreaks. And consequently, get that animal out of that position.

[@HienLeGia]

Happy that your can achieve more form League than most, especially from studying Mathematical Algorithms and applied Statistics Edit: Happy Holiday whenever you decide to upload, and always remember- you can always learn, after you finished your formal studies

[@GlacialScion]

Riot has always seemed to have an issue with data analysis where they know enough to collect and aggregate an enormous amount of data, but not enough to avoid all of the huge pitfalls inherent to statistical analysis. Every so often, Phreak accidentally makes this obvious in his videos. Most recently, at least to my knowledge, when he defended the ping changes by saying that survey responses showed a reduction in reports of negative communication interactions. The first comment under that video was pointing out that if those were the metrics Riot was using, their best course of action would be to remove all ability to communicate, thus bringing the credible reports of negative communication to zero. Statistics is an extremely difficult and counterintuitive field. Being smart and able to run the numbers isn't all that's required to make good use of it, but it doesn't come across as if the people at Riot appreciate that fact.

[@elia0162]

like statistic teachers say:"raw data is garbagge data"

[@brotendo]

No lol. That first comment under the video is what's called slippery slope fallacy lmao. All these armchair data scientists in the comments are hilarious.

[@GlacialScion]

@@brotendo That's not what a slippery slope argument is.

[@trtvitor1385]

@@brotendo thats not a slippery slope argument at all lol. Youve had a shocker.

[@broidkanymore-zc4lt]

umm no the best course of action would be to delete the game because therere still some ways to communicate disrespect to others without pings and chat

[@31iseo]

I am proud of you Petu, I hope you succeed in this endeavours of yours

[@marcoortiz8170]

Already miss you, Petu. But also wish you the best in making coachless as great as you can! Shending you good vibes!

[@gamingfunnel]

As much as your videos make me so happy, we all have goals that we strive for and need to achieve. I wish you the best of luck, and hope that in your travels, there is a chance I get to meet you. Thank you, and I can not wait to wait for more tech in December.

[@brycecollier4263]

I stopped playing League probably 2 years ago, but I still enjoy watching your content and you almost make me want to get back into the game. Keep up the great work man! I hope your endeavors are successful!

[@nicolasrobertovitordemorae9396]

This guy made an entire thesis just to to divert our attention from the fact that he is unironically buying protobelt on shen.

[@anthonysmith1228]

Same to you Petu! Its so hype to see you follow through on this project!

[@gorilla-lol]

Great video as per usual, petu. You might be the first person to come up with this insight of an item's average influence on win rate which I think is fantastic. I have a few ideas for you to consider if you haven't already. Firstly, the idea of 'lose less' items on top of 'win more' ones as well, so one that works well when behind. Essentially this idea can be extended to all levels of prior win rates, so items that work well when even, etc. when you take this into account, then essentially the win difference should really be localised to small bins of prior win rates. (This doesn't even begin to consider the prior win rate mechanism - how to estimate this especially when champions have different win graphs over time i.e. scaling vs early game comps) extending this further, items are really dependent on matchups (you highlighted the difference between matchups against MR and armour), although how fed the enemy team magic vs attack dmg carries are also influences which item is optimal. also rest of team should influence it (e.g. for a top laner, jg dmg is especially important, mid to a lesser degree, and bot/supp to even less). team comps also matter, e.g. liandries might have a disproportionately high win rate against tanks, meaning that regardless of whether another item is better when ahead or behind (e.g. mejais if ahead or zhonyas/banshees if behind), liandries is still optimal against more than 3 tanks on enemy team. this idea extends to basically all items against more uniform teams (e.g. frozen heart against auto attackers, zhonyas into assassins, thornmails into healers, serpents into shielders, bork, etc). In fact there might be some self selection already in champ select, e.g. rammus picked more into AAs, gwen picked into tanks, etc, that kind of skew builds from the get go. Items are super complicated, and essentially when broken down into matchups is almost impossible to model. Perhaps when you ignore that and a few other aspects (e.g. different itemisations of scaling vs win now comps, teamfight vs split comps, and stuff mentioned earlier), then perhaps you can end up with some manageable PDEs. Perhaps this taps into the most important part, which is the fact that a human can analyse all these different aspects, to purchase good items so frequently and so quickly, shows the amazingness of our gamer brains. good job on your grad, enjoy your holiday, and best of luck on the chapters ahead.

[@xPetu]

yep all matchups related / context-specific stuff is still coming, working on it tirelessly!

[@solarkness5077]

That is actually such a cool field Though even with the win probability added, I feel like selection bias still plays a part, since you're more likely to buy defensive items when it's *likely* that your win probability is going to drop (thus meaning the average win probability will be lower than an item you buy when it's likely it'll rise anyways). Since the win probability depends on your team and the state of the enemy team as well, there would be an expected change in win probability regardless of specific item choices (mostly leaning towards the team that's winning slowly winning more and more). But then, comparing items specifically in games with similar starting win probabilities would inform whether an item might actually be the better choice when behind or not, and you mentioned selecting for specific conditions which could fix that issue.

[@alexeizaraiov]

WIshing all the success for Coachless and all your endeavors Shensei. You are one of a kind.

[@jaredsears555]

THANK YOU for making this video! Ever since taking taking a statistics course in college I've felt like a bunch of available game statistics are skewed and misinterpreted. I can't tell you how many times I've been in games where someone build's sub-optimally for the situation simply because the build "has the highest winrate". I hope more people notice this and adopt a modular build mindset.

[@LAK253]

Spoiler Blocker!!!

[@muertem7875]

Good luck on your project xPetu

[@ccivinski]

Hoping you have success on your endeavor! A bit sad there will be no more videos for a while, but you gotta do what you gotta do

[@MistralFlacon]

Petu you're my favourite leauge streamer. Seeing your in-depth technical analysis of the game and always using it to feed your gamplay (and to teach others) was always a pleasure. Above all your excitement around it all is refreshing. Hope coachless suceeds to become what you aim to, all the best!

[@helleye311]

Congratulations on the graduation! The tech is great! super interesting data. If I was actually playing league, I'd definitely be paying for coachless just to go into the numbers. I guess we finally have the mathematically correct build.

[@Foatizenknechtl]

nah mate take ur time to enjoy the world. you will never be this healthy and agile. go on, take ur time. im just happy youre making progress :) ive been watching for like 5 years or more

[@carmelhood8982]

I could watch these videos for hours!

[@vigomatuka3055]

You are the most positive and interesting LoL youtuber I have ever watched. I love your analytics, comments and thoughts about the game, they are all very useful and interesting to listen to. I find both videos like this and your normal videos very enjoyable. Thank you for the years of entertainment, I hope you have a pleasant journey and am looking forward to your next video when you come back!

[@Kacper0Plazma]

xPetu, I haven't played LoL since 2023, but I always watch your videos about math and sometimes about forbidden technology. Thank you for all the content!

[@ethanl9845]

Don’t know who you are but this is quality content. I’d like to see an addition specifically of items for when a player is behind, or has a below 50% win chance, further refined by whether they were against ad or ap. It would be nice to know the best item to stabilize when you’re losing, not just which one to push your advantage when you’re winning

[@olaskaar4140]

Have you seen Shending help is smurfing on the EUW ladder recently? Either shen is in a great spot this season or Shending is a monster on your champion (he is monstergood either way xD)

[@xPetu]

yeah Shending is cracked (+ Shen buffed for no reason when he's already strong XD)

[@The_Lightless]

@@xPetuRiot was really stupid this last patch. They buffed champions that were already good/strong and pushed them into OP just because they want to see them at worlds. Jarvan Jax etc, absolutely no need for buffs lol.

[@potofblack]

have fun on your trip petu, can't wait to see what you've got in the oven for us later. always a pleasure seeing your content

[@HusumLOL]

Watched this while making dinner and honestly insanely interesting points brought up. Had my attention all video. Very excited to see the future of coachless. Good luck with everything Petu!

[@xPetu]

Thank mr Swain

[@holdupsomethingaintright7919]

This man single-handedly created the foundations for my Shen while also simultaneously making me have an interest in Mathematics, currently studying Serge Langs books. You're the man Xpetu I wish you all the best.

[@da54177]

This research is incredibly valuable and I hope Riot licenses it from you or adds you to the balance team. You would be a credit to any team you join!

[@deredware9442]

I think its so cool that you have the data to prove something that Alois says all the time. "don't build defensive when you are behind"

[@chrischeng5123]

Yoo i also did my Masters Thesis on League of Legends too! That's so wild that 4 months after my graduation I see this video lol

[@user-dddatas]

We will miss you master, but I hope you enjoy your trip. We love you, take care!

[@theslashbro4474]

I'm so impressed by the work you've done on Coachless. You are truly an enigma amongst the plethora of LOL content creators on this platform. Keep it up!!! You've gotten me interested in LOL Statistics, and perhaps statistics as a whole!

[@amaizen4817]

i wish you good luck with everything petu, i havent played league in a long time but you still are one of my most favorite league-tubers

[@luthon]

This is the exact vibe we need for the league community. Congratulations on your thesis and graduation, have fun traveling and the best of luck in your product development journey. I'm sure it will be a success.

[@miitza]

you explain complex subjects in a way that is easy to grasp for someone that has never studied statistics and probability, like a professor! We love you Petu good luck on your and your teams project!

[@zozihn8047]

I quit league out of necessity; I can't game that long without a controller anymore due to fatigue and pain. I still am subscribed and like to watch your channel. Your approach to things and the way you articulate your thoughts is really pleasant to listen to. Good luck with your future endeavors.

[@victorhansen1028]

THIS MAK IS THE SMARTEST LEAGUE PLAYER EVER. FROM STARTING BOYCOTTS. TO EDUCATING THE ENTIRE COMMUNITY HOW TO SHEN WITH ALOT OF STYLES. REACHED CHALLENGER DOING SO. STARTED A PRODUCT TO SERVE THE COMMUNITY AAAAAND WROTE A MASTERS THESIS. You're truly an inspiration of how following your heart can take you far and wide in the world♥️. Best of luck to you petu

[@endrost4]

This man probably revolutionized the computing of items worthness in League of Legends. I am 100% sure that even big competitive teams didn't actually do these calculations, this means that with enough players testing different builds we should have the OPTIMAL item for each champions for a said patch. Having this information has no price today when you think of the amounts of money involved. If just one team could a systematicaly have the better builds that would probably increase their winrate. Congrats man you probably started a new era for the competitive League of Legends community

[@taknie4303]

I'm a Modelling and Data Science student on my second year and I always found stuff like this really interesting but I honestly cant even comprehend how can you be a challanger player and still manage to do good in your studies while I struggle to both make it out of my first year and out of silver

[@Mooki_14]

GL on your journey my brother! Wish you the best, you deserve it! :)

[@erinphilippe5993]

Congrats on graduating! Also damn well done on putting that thesis together! Crazy how you managed to make a more accurate game state win predictor than riot :o

[@JoschNo1]

I wish you the very best! Congrats to your completed studies, and have a nice andventure around the world! ❤✌️

[@DustinHarms]

You'll be missed, Petu. But excellent work, I truly enjoy the nerding out and just the....escalation of these things over the last few years. =)

[@Лилсмоук]

Hey man you got me buying Shen, and your advice about 4 hours without screens before sleeptime helped me get better sleep. Looking forward to hearing from ya, good luck

[@barnabasfarakas7376]

Thank you Petu, this really helped my academic burnout and reignited my curiosity. Enjoy your travels!

[@王勝緣]

I think it is interesting to consider the probability of what item you will sell in order to buy another item when you reach your full build. It basically shows the player's understanding of the situation and what item they believe would be superior, and it also "implies" the win probability of each item in a sense. Of course, it is really hard to define the certain win rate of an item, as the game changes all the time (you cannot really decide the champions your are playing against or the champions your teammates have chosen).

[@Noimnotathing]

Just registered for coachless. Wishing you and your endeavors the best, Petu.

[@pedroeubg]

Hey man have a incredible successful journey

[@caden-reynolds]

It's honestly refreshing to hear serious people discuss League stats. So frustrating hearing people talk out they ass about these things

[@Czarborough]

congratulations, we wish you the best on your graduation and I hope you make some awesome memories on your travels!

[@dantesk1836]

Was waiting for this to come out! Congratulations on finishing the Master's and good luck in your endeavors. I will definitely look at your thesis and try to understand XD, the linear models course I am taking rn should help.

[@lucaspvasco]

Congrats on your thesis, it’s amazing that you came up with this

[@jkelso49able]

One of the few people I look forward to seeing! I have been thinking of starting a KZbin channel recently now that I have better Internet and audience that I'd like to target are Newer or players that felt like playing. Long story short I was reminded by your app idea and I'd like to advertise it in use and create a following and lead people with real tools vs only my Biased opinion lol! I hope you get bigger streamers on board and find success!!

[@XanthonOperator]

Very nice sir! I would also mention that damage items can end fights faster, which is why I often build some damage on many tanks. While i feel many people intuitively know this... discussion of tank items always focuses on their effective health attributes and not the fight is shorter attribute.

[@The_BeefCastle]

Dude! Good luck with your project! I enjoy your content and think you are one of the good ones that play LoL. Keep kicking ass and come make a video telling us how awesome your project went!

[@mathysrituper5424]

Really impressive content. Thank you for being one of the only content creators to actually elevate our level of knowledge on the game.

[@Alliancewolf]

If the available data includes timestamps on when the item was purchased during a game, it would be interesting to see how that items win rate changes depending on when it was bought as a first item. Then you could also compare that same item to how the win chance changes if you managed to get your first item before your role opponent did. Then you could go on and see the same things for the second items win chance changes. Furthermore you could analyze more in depth how the item win chance is affected by melee physical, ranged physical, melee magic and ranged magic matchups. (Watched the whole video, but unsure if it was only for physical and magic or if it also included melee and ranged)

[@bazhepetrov7380]

How do the item changes factor into the statistics? How can we take them into consideration? Maybe in certain patches item A rushed would result in better win probability and more damage done/blocked, while in some patches item B would completely outshine item A with more win probability and higher damage done/blocked for example. Items and champions go through constant cycles of nerfs and buffs which changes their strength drastically. Sometimes the usefulness of an item relies solely on a buff/nerf of a champion that gets picked a lot in the current trends. The 14.19 global item nerfs are going to change a lot of stuff and I'm so excited to see the outcome. Great video, as always Petu !

[@Laent64]

Congrats about your finished student life. I love hearing you simplify complex concept within a game. Then I can apply them elsewhere less fun, but more useful =) Thanks!!!!

[@WaLLy_]

Congrats on closing the chapter on your student life and thank you for all the content you have given us.

[@MrLinkDay]

I quit league just over a year ago, still love your vids man.

[@aleksis007]

I actually thought you were about to flame Phreak there for a second lol A compliment to Phreak caught me off guard

[@CaliMelodies]

The engineer in me gets really excited about these kinds of videos.

[@chivojunk]

I don't know if this was meant as an advertisement for coachless at all but as a man who loves his numbers and stats, this looks so intriguing I will definitely be using it and probably spend money on it if it means access to more stats. Great video!

[@db.1304]

Congrats on graduating! Best of wishes for your current and future projects xPetu, hope you keep uploading every now and then and let us know what you are up to!

[@samv.l.5819]

This is why I love watching your videos, you use your brain for greater things than just league

[@lordnevaman5925]

Congratulations on Graduating, xPetu. I hope your travels are safe and productive.

[@hatzer3780]

Gratz on finishing your studies!🎉🎉

[@Dracogame]

I opened this video thinking about how very passionate people make startups out of their thesis. And my boy Petu actually launched a service

[@pierrejoubert1655]

Enjoy and goodluck with travels xPetu much love ❤

[@FuixOne]

What I got from this is that heartsteel is still the better 1st item when ahead, however titanic is the best 1st item when behind or even.

[@dejsasm123]

As a stats nerd and fan of analytics in LoL, how could I learn more about this? e.g. how could I read up on this, what's the mathematical tern for this "actual impact" statistic, etc. Amazing video as always and I'll miss you, but have a wonderful time!

[@pezaxor7920]

wow, what an amazing video, and coachless is just what ive been looking for, i love nerding out about stats like this and always do it in my free time for almost every game i play xD, also GOOD LUCK on your upcoming adventure :D i wish you the best and cant wait to see you when you get back before new years!!!

[@trouthpillips]

Congrats on finishing your thesis man, you'll forever be my biggest Shenspiration

[@ArchonofAethyrius]

I never thought I'd be interested on a thesis on League of Legends, but I know what I'm gonna be reading for the next few days.

[@arthur62939]

Simply a WIZARD of statistics and Shen, thank you Petu for being such a unique guy and an example for the League community. You’re AMAZING! I admire you a lot!

[@MiniMoot32]

Have a good vacation Petu We will do our best to hold down the fort till you return

[@ReignCold]

ihan vitun kova, helvetin hyvää duunia. keep up the good work Petu 💪

[@AsockRatao]

Awesome content sir. I've being trying to figure this out for quite a while and thanks to you it all make sense now !

[@KappaChiino]

As someone who just started a bachelor's degree in Humans and Technology, this is quite interesting in my field too; since this can also be applied to the psychology. Basically; how does the knowledge of winrates have an effect on any one person's build decisions. Just a general thought - good video, friend!

[@Oleoay]

Win probability added was one of the main focuses of baseball analytics, and trickled through to other types of analytics, though it’s often broken down into components in baseball tied to production ie walks, home runs, etc. That calc for a player is compared to “free talent” that could be acquired at a minimum salary to see if your salary is well spent on players who add value to your team.

[@chuckchuk5157]

cause he gets on base.

[@goodsirsepsis8152]

I wish you the same amount of success with your plans as the joy you brought me with your vids

[@johnwelter7081]

Thanx xPetu! Great analytics and explaination! Also, congrats on graduation!

[@halomlg117]

I miss the old shen. I was the #1 ranked player in both NA and Korea on the champ. It was funny going pure tank with his sustain with Q, one time, a Rengar 100-0 himself on me while I just cs'd. He put it up on youtube. They changed Shen 3 months later.

[@encyrpticcodes8035]

0:42 what is that unholy ignite range???

[@user-bc7fe4ep8k]

Insane video man, cheers for finishing your studies! I will be patiantly wating for you to add Yasuo and Yone to the list of champions on Coachless!

[@fazyl5533]

Petu we all wish you great success. Keep it up buddy.

[@daimonian]

have fun traveling! enjoy your time and good luck developping!

[@AlexNavarroIniesta]

One of the best videos about the game tbh. GL in your endevours as well

[@onemackerel138]

Safe travels Lishen al-Gaib 🙏 And let me congratulate you on your thesis!

[@UckPhu-ix7mf]

Its insane that anyone would put this much effort into calculating league win probabilities.

[@raiden6393]

Thanks for the vid Petu . We missed you . The guy with a big brain who helped me reach my dream elo . See you in December!!

[@TreeNicos]

Petu, this video is amazing, like having a maths aplication or calculus class in uni. I dont know if this is something you would like, but, what if you start a channel, where you talk about maths, and probabilities, and aply them in lol? its wonderfull to hear you explaing things, thanks man.

[@matril328]

Justifying mathematically buying titanic hydra is such a Petu thing to do And I love it