Ammunition shortages in Ukraine - production, supply, & are Russia or the West running dry?

[@PerunAU]

A very happy New Years to all of you. It has been an incredible experience building this channel and having the privilege to see the incredible discussion this content has caused. I ran out of character limit for the source list this time, so I may update this pinned comment with more tomorrow - but I got most of the key stuff on there, enjoy reading ammunition budget documents if that's your thing.

[@SpicyMeatAhBall]

forsen

[@akumaking1]

So which side is “winning” the war at this point?

[@H1LOL]

@@akumaking1 no one, both are getting damaged by the war far more than it would bring them in the medium, short and long term

[@SirSmokeAlot8866]

Happy new year and thank you for your hard work! I’ve literally got myself a new habit every Sunday 😂

[@daviddobronyi5490]

never thought i'd be fascinated by a topic such as this, but your clear, logical analysis is a joy to listen to.

[@lorantstary4398]

“We’ve only got an hour so I won’t analyse the entire artillery market…” - I’m sure I’m not the only person whose heart sank when they head that.

[@IsaacHenryinAK]

Yes. Please stop using terms like "boring" and "lose viewers." Give us the details and the nitty gritty. That's why we're here. If the pod runs 90 minutes, so be it. We will watch it and enjoy it all the more. At ~60 minutes, it seems like it's over in a flash.

[@stanisawwojciechowski6714]

To be honest those over one hour long videos are the reason why i love perun. He covers the reasons, thing itself and possible consequences. It is so small yet so much to ask for

[@ericschmidt1987]

Right we are watching a one hr content creator. I bet you most of us want details or else we’d click on 5 min video instead

[@VineFynn]

@@IsaacHenryinAK its just self deprecating humor

[@IsaacHenryinAK]

@@VineFynn Yes, I realize that. I was using flattery to counter self-deprecating humor.

[@karsjansen5481]

"if we look away for 5 minutes the U.S Army is probably going to put a guidance kit on a handgrenade" had me rolling in my chair. And as a european I must say that is how some of us view the U.S

[@Kyle-sr6jm]

In fairness, we have more recent experience at killing people than most europeans.

[@chaosXP3RT]

Sounds like a compliment to me.

[@dh1380]

@@chaosXP3RT on the one hand, therein lies the problem. On the other hand, it is a compliment.

[@peacemaker63604]

We have it, it's called a throw

[@krissteel4074]

I think they called it 'Switchblade' and shipped a couple of hundred over there 🤔

[@CamembertDave]

"You don't run out - you become supply-constrained" is the kind of important nuance that applies to almost everything but is often not talked about because people tend to assume things are simpler than they really are.

[@wiktornyckowski]

...But in the specific case of critical war supplies, the difference can be argued to be rather philosophic, I think. III Reich did not actually run out of fuel, ammo, tanks or planes until Red Army waltzed right into Hitler's bunker. But being supply-constrained meant, effective combat power went down the drain. I'm actually very pleased to observe how russnia is becoming more and more supply-constrained as regards Iskanders (they've been throwing them all around the place in the first months of the war), flying pipes (they call it Kalibr, supposedly a miracle of orkish engineering), mopeds (aka Shahed) and quite recently, various pieces of artillery supply chain. It does warm my heart indeed and I do fervently hope it's going to stay this way because such "supply-constrained" Ivan will very soon be forced to limit itself to fresh recruits with Kalashnikovs. Against battle-hardened, well organized and reasonably well equipped Ukrainians this will result in a rapid depopulation of Mordor. An achievement, in a fashion...

[@DanielXStaub]

Logistics is all about the weakest link in the chain. It doesn't matter if there are 5 million artillery shells in Russia if they can't get them to the guns that need to fire them. Drone recon + long range attack options + open ammo dumps = a lot of shells not surviving long enough to be used. Even before HIMARS Russia had logistics problems.

[@anthonysmith778]

@@DanielXStaub and if it takes many dumb artillery shells to hit 1 target, they must be replaced. I see all these videos of vehicles in the open with hundreds of shell holes with no dead equipment in them. It would sucknto be on the business end

[@wayneparker9331]

As a former active duty USMC artillery officer, I laughed out loud at your remark, "I imagine that gunners find it pretty cathartic to just blast away at anything in sight." Because it's very, very true. If you do a close study of artillery tactics and actual operational methodologies in all conflicts, but especially the most modern wars, it's rather funny how artillery officers can conceive of so many different ways to "blast" their way to victory. Of course, it doesn't always work out the way they plan but they try with in the limits of their chosen profession to make it work. All joking aside, one very critical issue you didn't touch on in this video (but may be considering for another video) is the wear and tear on cannon and rocket systems from firing thousands of rounds in combat. One practice you will see in all major militaries is keeping a round count for every single howitzer, in addition to regular inspections by a specialized artillery mechanic using a bore scope to determine tube wear. This is a critical component in an artillery unit's firing solutions, as well as a critical part of weapon system maintenance. At a certain point, the laws of physics mean the tube is worn down so much that the gun/howitzer barrel is no longer fit for its intended purpose and must be swapped out for a new one. This requires "tier four" (i.e., factory level) maintenance and Ukraine currently has very limited capacity for such work (and the strikes on its power systems make it unlikely they will ever be able to expand such capacity). Put another way, even if the ammunition issues are resolved the artillery weapon systems are a whole other level of defense logistics complexity that must be considered.

[@ronblack7870]

you would be surprised at what can be done in the field or not in a factory setting if the need arises. as an example look at some of those videos from pakistan where they can take a broken truck axle and bend it back and reweld it and it's fixed in a day. all this in some dirt floor shack or outside.

[@JamesAustin]

He talked about this in the artillery video he did back in July: kzbin.info/www/bejne/e36ooauObNeGa6s

[@LuvBorderCollies]

Somewhere in KZbin is a US Army film during the Korean War. Its main point was the 155mm M1 had to be checked for wear in various components. They showed the troops changing out the howitzer barrel. It covered a lot stuff that's important but little known outside the artillery units. The units and barrels were being worked in with no cover, just open air and hope it don't rain.

[@lala-jp9kd]

I’ve seen it mentioned either on an earlier Perun video or elsewhere that factory level maintenance is being provided out of country in Poland and other Eastern Europe countries. This expressly included swapping out Artillery barrels as well as repair and maintenance of tanks and afvs.

[@farmingganja5277]

@@ronblack7870 they have to ship the guns to Poland for service. It's been widely reported on...

[@camustein5233]

As a Korean I am glad that RoK's obsession to firepower is finally mentioned in Perun! We still complain that we do not have enough stockpiles of 155mm ironically. We sometimes joke that the RoK army is the true successor of the Red Army.

[@johnnyenglish583]

It turns out you were right. Surgical air strikes are all very well and they can paralyse the enemy's capabilities temporarily (as can accurate HIMARS strikes against ammo depots, as carried out by Ukraine), but at the end of the day, if you're fighting a mid-20th century army like the Russian army, mass firepower prevails. You can't inflict enough losses on them with surgical strikes with Tomahawks etc. To this day, in spite of the war in Ukraine, the West still fails to realise that casualties like 200,000 are NOT a problem for Russia. In a democratic country, casualties of this sort might lead the country to quit the war. Not so in Russia. Recently it was leaked that the Russian HQ expects and is perfectly OK with the forecast 70,000 losses in the next 2-3 months. Yep, they're OK with that. So you need huge amounts of firepower to actually stop them because what is needed right now is at least 200,000 losses in half a year (which won't be possible, I'm afraid).

[@harrymoyes5069]

@@johnnyenglish583 I suspect the NATO combined arms strategy, would not work well against NATO. The assumption that ever more expensive aircraft will continue to evade anti aircraft missile technology is optimistic. Launching precision guided missiles from hugely expensive aircraft at long range, to protect those expensive aircraft from ground launched anti aircraft missiles is not an attractive proposition economically. I think one of the lessons to learn from the present conflict is that "establishing air superiority" is getting harder, and will get even harder in the future. Betting that stealth technology will continue to outrun detection technology is not a good bet, especially if the detection device is a cheap disposable one shot weapon that can put out huge amounts of scanning energy to breach the target's stealth measures, and only needs to survive until it hits its target.

[@wiryantirta]

> artillery slugfest > my brother in buff Korean Jesus, your capital and largest metropolitan is within artillery range. How are y’all going to survive this XD

[@orlock20]

@@johnnyenglish583 A loss of 15 million Chinese soldiers is a rounding error compared to China's population. A jet fighter can only be on the battlefield for about 15 minutes so there needs some continuous pressure on such a hoard.

[@AlphaAurora]

Given the number of targets the "million-man army" you face in the RoK, I am not surprised.

[@keithv3767]

The comments are generally where truth and civility go to die. Not on this channel. I look forward each week not only to Perun’s hour long power point, but a lot of intelligent conversation about them. It’s almost like this channel is what people hoped social media would be.

[@Rafael_Fuchs]

Longform + the level of detail and information sets the tone to be far more serious and demanding from the individual. Most people are totally capable of being respectful, but the way social media is structured, it's not exactly encouraged. I'd honestly even say it's even discouraged more often than not. Being a turd on the internet gets you attention.

[@rcpmac]

As soon as “those” viewers realize that Hunter Biden won’t be mentioned, they move on.

[@keithv3767]

@@rcpmac You are on to something there.

[@brodericksiz625]

@@Rafael_Fuchs Also the long form scares away people without the attention span needed to listen to it all, making it so that the people who are likely to comment are also more likely to be more thoughtful and less trigger happy about spouting the very first thing that came to mind, regardless of its level of insight

[@Rafael_Fuchs]

@@brodericksiz625 Yeah. That's part of what I was implying with "longform", but wasn't outright saying. It's a bit rude, and it isn't like YT blocks them from still making a comment even though they watched 40s of the video. They could also just come solely to flame in the comments given the subject matter. Case in point just above. rcpmac trying to make a divisive comment that offered no actual meaningful view or information.

[@richardgilman4602]

Perun, You touched every base on this home run hit. A might add, The South Korean conduit of artillery to Poland may be a way to get shells indirectly to Ukraine. The Polish Ministry of Defense, announced on December 6, 2022, South Korea delivered the first batch of ten K2 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) to Poland. The delivery also included the first K9 155mm self-propelled howitzer for the Polish army. The contract with South Korea was signed as part of a partnership deal with Poland for it to help foster sales to other EU countries for South Korea's burgeoning arms industry. Combat testing this armored equipment in a lend lease agreement with Ukraine would increase the marketability for it beyond Poland. The same is true for South Korean shells.

[@czaja995]

Poland is buying shells from Korea but at the same time their own production is at full capacity so most likely Polish shells are going to Ukraine and Korean are used as replacement, in case of K9 it's the same, Polish AHS Krab is going to Ukraine and K9 is it's replacement in polish military as they are very similar. From unofficial sources in Poland you can get info that more than 50 AHS Krab went to Ukraine. In case of MBT's it is most likely that after Poland receives all ordered Abrams and K2, all polish PT-91 will go to Ukraine because they are polish modernised version of T-72 and Ukraine soldiers know how operate them, I don't think that Korea will agree to give K2's to Ukraine but Poland can swap it's own armor and ammo for Korean and give domestically produce to Ukraine.

[@miramari732]

From Poland: birds are chirping that ammo is produced on wartime quantities, factories rehired all former employees, took a lot of new ones and are working 24/7. Also noone knows how many ukrainian factories were evacuated to polish territory and how many of them are producing ammo. We just know that many factories were evacuated (all machines and employees put on trains, send to some empty factory hall in Poland, unpacked and now continues production). There's no data how much of that ammo ends in Ukraine. We'll know it sometime after war

[@sandervesik173]

But realistically, Poland having new 155mm guns adds pressure to stock up more - more guns == less shells per gun.

[@blackstone777]

@@sandervesik173 it's not just the shells. It's the BARRELS as well. they have a life span. X amount of shells fired per barrel leads to max amount fired from the barrel before the barrel is deemed ineffective. You can maybe fudge the numbers on the maximum fired, but the more you go over the max, the more ineffective that arty system will be.

[@laars0001]

Other countries making note: If we can trick West countries into thinking we are good guys then they stop making buying storing weapons and saving cash for who knows what.

[@rknowling]

"historians are left wondering if anyone ever listens to them" Thankyou Perun- once again a superbly professional and educational presentation. I wish you all the best for 2023!

[@johnmc8785]

I have a friend, who's working for an NGO in Ukraine. In the course of his work, which involves training / managing EOD resources, he's made some interesting discoveries in captured Russian ordnance. They've found several lots of artillery propellant that are heavily degraded and/ or contaminated. He's described bag charges (for 152mm ?) that give off a tremendous vinegar / acetone odor. Many of the grains within the charges are broken into smaller pieces, and crumble when handled. He said it's clear from the conditions of crates and other containers, that this ordnance has been poorly stored for a very long time, probably outdoors, or under minimal protection from the environment. A likely result of this degradation is inconsistency between shots, that makes accurate fire even more difficult.

[@ChucksSEADnDEAD]

The nitrocellulose degraded. Same thing happens to old films in storage, because it's also nitrocellulose. I think they call it "vinegar syndrome" in the film restoration community too.

[@adamh1228]

@@ChucksSEADnDEAD HAHA, i think there's a bad movie "studio" called vinegar syndrome, that primarily restores and re-publishes old B movies that would otherwise fall out of existence. I always thought it was some gross reference to their favorite movies, turns out its not a childish joke. Learn something new every day!

[@dakaodo]

@John Mc Thanks to you and your friend for sharing that unique insight!

[@JRBendixen]

That is excellent news. Thank you 😎

[@gitamic2287]

Explains why there are intercepted calls of Russians complaining they're being shelled by their own guys. Operator error may still exist as some had paid to get out of mandatory military service or weren't even trained at military camp before the war and got mobilized. Although they got plenty practice now.

[@homeworksdone2378]

New favorite Perun quote: you can't pay teachers and doctors and workers in cluster munitions

[@HelgeHolm]

It's USA. It's worth a try, at least?

[@昭夫-o6y]

I think Perun underestimates how much your average American gun enthusiast would love to take one of those to the range

[@ashvandal5697]

For real tho, Perun's one-liners are also a master class in dry sarcastic humor

[@Anne_Patel]

But Putin doesn't care about paying teachers! Russian schools have been closing due to lack of resources, remember this is a dictatorship we are talking about

[@jeromebarry1741]

TBH my dad told a story of 100 years ago an American school teacher asserted control over an unruly student body by demonstrating his handgun accuracy with a circular target drawn on a chalkboard.

[@riptide6161]

Brutally honest, in-depth analysis. One hour is difficult for most people, but for those of us who have the time, this is pure gold as far as information goes. Thank you!

[@seth1455]

I intended to just watch 5 or 10 minutes and ended up watching the whole thing, he is a natural story teller even if it is mostly facts and figures. The humourous inserts also hit the spot.

[@KishorTwist]

It can shortened if using the fast-forward options. 1.5x faster is a good compromise for comprehension and _fastness._ I personally watch all my videos at 1.75x. 😋

[@generalgarchomp333]

As someone who listens to these at work I love that they're all at minimum an hour long.

[@Marcus-Lim]

This type of content is what the internet needs. In a half-decade defined by misinformation, Perun is the light at the end of the tunnel :)

[@darrenneven8533]

Oh hell yeah! Isn't it quaint but overdue 🤔

[@bilalthompson5475]

AMEN BROTHER!

[@aliasalias8433]

👍

[@EinFelsbrocken]

Always remain skeptical, even in the face of truth. Even Perun may not be perfect (although he sure as hell seems like it 😳)

[@autohmae]

he might be the light at the end of the tunnel, but it's not because of light content 🙂

[@WWFanatic0]

One thing I love most about your channel is the constant reminder that all your statements have the key qualifier: *if nothing changes.* As an economist by training and military history enthusiast, it is maddening how many people talk about major issues be it in the economy or military as if trends go on forever. Running out of shells reminds me of how the world has had the fear that they'll run out of coal (and then oil) in a generation going back to the mid 1850s. Surprise, shortages prompt people to change behavior. Maybe that's developing more efficient engines or finding a new fuel type or simply finding a new mine, but they do something. They don't sit there thinking "Well we will run out of coal in 15 years. It's a shame but we had a good run." Same will go with artillery in this war. They might fail to meet their goals, and frankly you can never have too much artillery, but Russia and others will increase production. Maybe they'll be lower quality shells or rely more on smaller calibers like 122mm or maybe they'll massively increase production of 152mm and unguided rockets to meet their needs. They might meet production goals but have logistical issues (that are totally unrelated to every major ammo dump near the front having terrible safety standards and chainsmoking crews...). They might end up with a lower, but still advantageous consumption rate. There's a lot of variables but any assumption built on those variables being static isn't worth the paper its printed on. Between the in depth analysis, acknowledging the limits of what you know, and exercising some common sense, I absolutely love this channel. I recommend it to everyone I can who wants to learn more about these somewhat niche issues. Keep up the good work and I look forward to the day when this channel can cover the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a retrospective, not a real time analysis.

[@XRP747E]

Excellent comment. Thank you.

[@CharlesHoop]

I’m not uneducated in economics and I’m with you about the amazing way the market responds to incentives-in the long run. I hope I don’t word this in a way that sounds insulting, but, I’m not sure we watched the same video. Perun did everything you asked about in your comment. He talks extensively not only about current actual production but about about surge capacity over the next few months. And, he does cover things like Substitution of explosive types, use of different types of artillery or mortars as the quantity available to supply of 155mm exceeds the quantity demanded. And he’s limited by the naturally non-public nature of some of the information on the topic and I’m sure he’d agree that governments (and markets) may have ways to access supply and production that are not publicly known but just assuming those exist or can be made to exist goes beyond facts and into pure speculation. His focus is on 2023, which is essentially the immediate term, not the long. So, you can’t count on a technological solution analogous to, say, fracking to help. Assuming that a big pocketbook (demand) means automatic, short-term access to any resource you want (supply) is an assumption economists don’t generally make. It’s a classic demand shock and those are well known. Just watch spot prices for natural gas and heating oil when you get unexpectedly cold winter weather. Prices skyrocket b/c in the relevant time frames supply can’t change fast enough because even with willing buyers, supply is simply inflexible over those time frames even if things settle out over the medium term. In this case the relevant time frame is what can be financed, then made or procured, transported to Poland, then to Ukraine and then get into a howitzer within the coming months and that’s a very short time horizon. Putting aside price concerns by assuming DoD-sized budgets and the underlying issue still exists that in the very short term, supply or quantity supplied is potentially not as high as Ukraine wants / needs in the immediate term.

[@laars0001]

Would not russian artillery production and importing drop as their oil/gas revenues drop and their machinery break downs are unable to be repaired ? Seems like time is not on Putin's side here.

[@WWFanatic0]

@@CharlesHoop I think you misunderstood my point. What I like about Perun's analysis is how he acknowledges that the world isn't static. When you start having shortages you find ways to increase production. You may not hit your goals, you may have to substitute inferior goods, you might ration in the short to medium term, but you don't just sit there and let the supply dwindle to zero. Where things will land and why is an open question. What's certain is that actors will adjust. The world is dynamic but much of the coverage elsewhere has a static nature to it.

[@CharlesHoop]

@@WWFanatic0 Maybe I did misunderstand your comment and we are on the same page. If so, Sorry!

[@donuthole7236]

Whoever thought an hour long You Tube video on artillery shell procurement could be so fascinating? 😯 Love your work, some of the best on topic!

[@jacob_90s]

Perun finding your channel has been one of the few silver linings of this war. The depth of your analysis and your respect for history and supporting evidence has really opened my eyes whenever I hear others speak about the war, and pretty much on any other subject I hear people proclamate about. So thank you for all the time and effort you put into your videos, and for reminding us of why having a critical eye is so important. And I know this isn't as important, but thank you as well for actually talking like a human being. I know you've mentioned before that you don't have a script, and frankly, I think it's a plus for your delivery. I've always found your videos incredibly easy to listen to. Happy New Year!

[@cptbeeeeee]

The wry humor he injects makes it's so relatable and easy to digest.

[@randomdude2832]

propaganda is one of the silver linings?

[@alexd832]

@@randomdude2832 i think you misunderstand the word, a well thought, logical, not too biased explanation with various and ample sources from both sides to back it up is news (or good information) What you are doing THAT is propaganda See the difference?

[@randomdude2832]

@@alexd832 "a well thought, logical" it doesn't matter when he's analizing propaganda, propaganda in, propaganda out. and he tries to spin things like on his video for bombing infrastructure, " not too biased explanation" except, it's extremely biased, and it show more in the last few videos with the amounts of copium and hopium... " with various and ample sources from both sides" he does nit pick from both sides and just ignores what he doesn't like. and with the way the media just repeats what ukranian sources say (ghost of kiev, evacuation of azovstal) it's not hard to get many sources for the same propaganda line "What you are doing THAT is propaganda" 'I'm not propaganda, you're propaganda'... sounds legit.

[@alexd832]

@@randomdude2832 then give an alternate viewpoint, with serious sources which aren't wrong 24/7 I followed for some time various pro Russian sides and they consistently got things very wrong Ukrainans are never going to conquer anything back Follows Kharkiv offensive -Ukrainans are on the verge of breaking, two weeks and they are done 3 months after that still running strong -I don't think even Ukraine thinks it can recapture Kherson 3 days later... Ukraine is about to take Bakhmut, they have got to the railroad, they are done 2 weeks after this... I am not even talking about one single source but multiple and i am only citing the most lampant and obvious errors and lies not the literally hundred other comments which either made no sense or contradicted each other. God, lately several people have been claiming Poland is about to conquer part of Ukraine.. i mean...they are literally giving all the military aid they can to Ukraine.. its as likely as Germany nuking Austria (and yes Germany doesn't have nukes) Yes there are some western media who do that too and guess what i am not reading those either (ghost of Kiev evacuation) but Perun has always provided a basis for his claims, claim's which have been far more accurate then many on both sides. And then i see you purposefully misinterpreting in a recent comment here (Ukraine needs all the ammo of the world) the video we both just watched... Tell me why should i believe you? Honestly with no malice or derision, i genuinely ask you why should I believe you?

[@Tmb1112]

I truly believe your hard work during this war will pay off for you. Your channel is growing fast. Hope it becomes very lucrative and that you can keep it up in the long term if this is what you want to do. It’s also paying off in helping educate hundreds of thousands of people, so you’re doing the world a service. Thanks, Perun.

[@wodthehunter8145]

Dude has beaten a lot of really talented military historians and observers and he still has a fairly new channel. I'd say its already paying off. It's a niche market and few, even really good ones, make it above 200k subs. Hes beaten The Chieftain, and Atun Shei: is rapidly catching up with Drachinifel, and I wouldn't be surprised if next year he's catching up with Mark Felton. It's well researched, informative, succinctly stated, and with just an occasional good joke. It makes you forget you are watching a literal 1 hr long powerpoint presentation. You know this guy aced every presentation he had to do in school.

[@rodh1404]

I suspect that's something Perun has given a lot of thought to. The war in Ukraine will end at some point, and I suspect a lot of the audience he's built up will lose interest after that. But there's no doubt that a lot of people with a long term interest in this type of subject have also become aware of Perun's channel. So while the view count will probably drop dramatically, it will probably continue to have good numbers, relatively speaking.

[@autohmae]

@@wodthehunter8145 nobody on KZbin thought long form content like this which has basically no parasocial element could even reach a target audience this large, especially out of nowhere. Which shows us the real world events still can have a real impact on KZbin.

[@autohmae]

@@rodh1404 as long as his audience has grown larger and larger and he keeps making quality content I'm certain he'll retain a pretty big audience.

[@randomdude2832]

I guess goebles also got paid off....

[@theblondesiouxsiesioux]

21:05 - 21:20 That totally reminds me about the two Mosin-Ngant rifles my friend had; One was made in 1928, the working parts all looked well manufactired, as did the rest of the metal, The action worked very smooth (for a Ngant). The other Mosin he had was made in 1943 at the height of WW2. You could see machine marks over every single part of the damn thing (practically had machine marks on the stock lolz), and practically every working part on its assembly was hella rough to work. We always made jokes about Soviet war time production because of that.

[@theblondesiouxsiesioux]

TLDR: Wartime production can be responsible for items of highly questionable quality. Take my friends Mosin-Ngant for instance.

[@h8GW]

You're overly kind if you believe that qualified for tl;dr

[@kemarisite]

For the second rifle, at least it survived intact rather than having the barrel cut in half to make PPSh barrels.

[@theblondesiouxsiesioux]

@@kemarisite I guess so. We used to see lots of Ngants dated 1941-44 (I think 44) at gun shows across the great basin. But then again we used to see literal TONS of Mosin Ngants at those gun shows so yeah. Don't see many Ngants anymore doe.

[@Folgeantrag]

Great and precise analyse as ever. I live in Germany/Hesse. 20km away from my home is the second largest ammunition Depot of the Bundeswehr. By public information there are stockpiled ca. 40000 tons of ammunition of all calibers. But ca. 40% are beyond theire lifespane. Some weeks ago there was an political outrage after it became known that compared to the numbers of shells/ammunition fired in Ukraine the Bundeswehr has just enough for 2-3 DAYS of fighting. Nobody in the MoD started to order new ammunition reserves or signed new contracts to the arms industry since february 24th to produce new shells. Now there is the aim to buy ammunition, including small arms, for 20 Billion €, but nobody can say who quickly this will happen. Germany spended some ammunition to Ukraine but just a friction of the US delieveries. Funding is not the greatest problem, it is the political capability to start a coherent planing to support Ukraine in a long war. But i am a little bit optimistic that German arms industry can close the gap but this will need time. Propably 1-2 years. The Ukraine army ordered hundred new PZH 2000 certainly with enough ammunition piles. Rheinmetall also build a new production factory for ammunition especially for the Gepard canons. But this will also need time. The Chancellor and the President said the right words and choose the right direction but until know we are too sluggish for immediate reforms and decisions to rearm the Bundeswehr and support Ukraine with everything they need.

[@JamesAustin]

Yeah Perun's earlier video (kzbin.info/www/bejne/bpunhomqiqZqqMk) about Germany's defence industry seemed a bit prescient when the various organisation issues came to light there, as the year came to a close.

[@pouncepounce7417]

The problem is that german politicans are risk adverse to an degree that would make ghandi throw grenades into peacefull protesting crowds. The west as a whole could bury ukraine neck deep in ammunition. With todays cnc systhems and an cooling economy everything made from metal for shells is laughable easy to supply, you will have suppliers waiting in line. On the chemical side i see no real issue, only fuses and other very shell specific items is an boottle neck as i see it, at least if you want quality. Barrels could be tricky, that is pretty much the only part where you can not just order a few from "someplace making stuff from metal"

[@MrMakabar]

Rheinmetall has bought a Romania ammunition producer and a Spanish one this year, while somebody in NATO has bought a lot of rounds from Rheinmetalls South African part subsidiary. It is not only the German government, who can order things like shells from Germany either, so this might not be as big of a problem for Ukraine. After all the EU military funds are meant for exactly this type of situation. So it is much more likely that the Bundeswehr lacks ammunition, then Ukraine.

[@pouncepounce7417]

@@MrMakabar Ukraine has right now an army that is superior to the german one, I think the ammunition is better in ukrainian hands.

[@geoffhaylock6848]

@@MrMakabar Buying up existing production doesn't help increase supply. And who is to say that Germany isn't buying this production capacity to increase its own stock?

[@kyleslater5245]

I can’t believe you’ve managed to make an interesting PowerPoint presentation every week. I mean I hate them to start with so the fact that you’ve managed to seriously educate me about logistics in the process has been bloody impressive. I look forward to this even though i usually hate videos this long as they drag out too much.

[@jessehachey2732]

That’s sad, how people don’t have the intellectual curiosity, or acumen to even sit through a long video 🙄🤦🏼‍♂️ Your education system is a joke! 😳

[@alcoholdonkey]

@@jessehachey2732 to be fair, Perun is the exception as opposed to the rule of PowerPoint. Usually the presentation (and the presenter) is so dry it can put a energy drink to sleep. These are amazing demonstrations of how you're supposed to do it.

[@artell9877]

And not forgetting that Perun always specifies what (sub-)themes won't be covered. The PPT could have been much, much longer everytime..😉

[@lasagnakob9908]

@@alcoholdonkey It probably helps that Perun doesn't go over the 1 hour mark (where I assume some others' might go towards 2.) The humor that hits you out of the blue is awesome too, ngl lol

[@kevinfinney8237]

For the same reason I watch Drachinifel's naval war history videos, I watch Perun's videos on Ukraine. They are not too long if they are incredibly well presented and incredibly well done.

[@GregMcNeish]

"I get to sneakily turn this into a defense economics video." I actually cheered out loud when you said that. Economics

[@positroll7870]

Before watching: Rheinmetall seems to have bought an old Romanian plant producing heavy soviet ammo, planning to restart production. In November, the added a Spanish company, planning to ramp up 120 and 155mm ammo there. 2 weeks ago they announced they would bring on medium caliber (20-40mm) production lines from Switzerland to Germany, starting ammo production for Gepard late spring. Oh, and the Ger parliament greenlighted 90 Mio EUR to create an updated SMArt 2.0 round with modern electronics.

[@positroll7870]

Additional stuff Germany could and should do: Send the 30K old LARS 110MM missiles still on stockpile. They are safe enough to fire remotely from the back of a Toyota, as the Ukrainians are already doing with their old stuff Convert 10k M26AT2 missiles int versions carrying 4 SMArt warheads, as offered by Diehl in the 90s Do an early prototype run on WM1800 enforcer missiles, and hang 2 of them under a small verti drone as MBDA proposed a few years ago

[@bliblablubb9590]

Imagine a timeline where people cheer that Germany is buying up weapons and ammunition suppliers left and right. We truly live in marvelous times! "sniff"

[@AsbestosMuffins]

@@bliblablubb9590 *third times the charm?

[@bliblablubb9590]

@@AsbestosMuffins This time with much more allies against russia.

[@TremereTT]

@@AsbestosMuffins Declaring war on the world was a bit of a dumb idea...in hindsight. Well at least effort and commitment was put into that. I think the new approach slowly developing on front of our eyes is to anoy Russia while keeping several countries between us and them. So Russia might at some point attacks into those countries...and maybe one day in the future all our friends will ask us to please liberate Russia and who knows maybe we even will be tasked to liberate Königsberg, Belarus and shit Russia stole from the Finish guys. Not that we actually want anything of this...but if we are politely asked and don't lose our friends and willing bufferstates (wich is basically the same) in the process...we might consider getting our hands dirty. Poland and the Baltics would need to get into big trouble before USA and UK would allow Germany to do what should have been done before Russia had nukes. Let's face it the Tehran Conference of 1943 was not the best decision ever made... Yet I don't think France will ever allow Germany to go anywhere militarily. There is this understanding that among the two France will do the military dominance thing and Germany will do the economic dominance thing. This arrangement realy suits both states and all of Europe very well. So without France there will be no liberation of anything.

[@janeharrison835]

I had the priviledge of visiting the Czech Republic not long after the Velvet Divorce. It doesn't surprise me in the slightest that they and Slovakia would be at the forefront of ramping up military production that will help Ukraine. Lke Poland, they remember only too well the horrors of Soviet oppression, and will take any chance they can to get back at Moscow... And Perun, thanks for all the hard work and superb videos! Here's to many, many more 🥂

[@blackstone777]

Remember, the major coup the Germans pulled off pre-Poland invasion was the annexation of Czechoslovakia and and acquiring the Skota munitions plants.

[@janvesely6353]

The other part of the story is that former Czechoslovakia and even before then Bohemian part of Austro-Hungarian empire was a major weapon producer, in some periods being in top 5 countries worldwide by weapons export. The tradition never stopped, though the industry was heavily scaled down for some time after velvet revolution when the outlook seemed more peaceful.

[@enriqueperezarce5485]

Oh right didn’t the Czech Republic change y their name legally to Czechia?

[@janvesely6353]

@@enriqueperezarce5485 nope, it just officially allows using 'Czechia' as an alternative shorter name.

[@bluemarlin8138]

@@janvesely6353 Yep. That’s the real reason the nazis wanted to annex the Sudetenland prior to WWII.

[@BW-CZ]

A tiny bit late (I just discovered the channel recently, it's great!) but I just wanted to thank you for this video. I'm Czech and I never heard of any of this and in general the way a lot of stuff in our country goes I didn't expect our help to be much useful at all. So to learn that CSG is actually producing a huge number of crucial ammunition is almost unbelievable and very good news to me. It's nice to look at our country with something other than disappointment and frustration, and I never would have find out without your (high quality) video. Thanks!

[@independentomega2701]

I would like to address a point that you made in your presentation regarding the American definition of "Serviceable Ammunition" being different than the Russian one. I am a US Navy Veteran, from 2009-2013, and my job was taking care of explosives and ammunition. We didn't have any artillery shells, but we had small arms ammunition, rockets, and missiles. We routinely issued ammunition to people who were intending to use it in combat, as opposed to in training, that was dated during the Vietnam war.

[@paulmcgregor6411]

I have see videos of 155 rounds supplied to Ukraine from rounds given to Italy for U.S.A. that were manufactured in the 60’s. It was pointed out the if the shells had been stored correctly they would be fine, especially if more modern fuses were used. It may not be the latest or greatest, but if it does the job, then it’s all good!

[@robertsneddon731]

@@paulmcgregor6411 The shells themselves aren't an issue generally. A fifty year old shell that goes bang with 90% of the yield of a modern-manufacture shell is Bad News for the shell's intended recipient regardless. The real worry is the propellant charge behind the shell that is supposed to provide a consistent muzzle velocity (ca. 800m/s for NATO 155mm shells at full charge for maximum range). Aged and badly stored propellant charges will not be predictable and consistent and not throw the shell the distances expected, dropping the shells short and rendering them ineffective.

[@dennisyoung4631]

Doesn’t storage in a climate-controlled environment help with propellant longevity?

[@blackstone777]

@@dennisyoung4631 absolutely. which brings up the pic he had of Russian ammo stored out in the open, exposed to cold, rain, snow, ice, etc. And that pic was from 2010. How effective is that ammo after years of exposure to the environment?

[@RCorvinus]

@@blackstone777 that really put the ‘dump’ in ammo dump…….

[@CastawayHikes]

I absolutely love your in-depth, long form presentations. You have a talent for making these incredibly detailed yet always interesting. Thank you Perun

[@damaskosc]

Perun: You can't attach a bayonet on a howitzer Games Workshop:

[@toysoldier6093]

These videos are often my favorite part of any given week. That being said, please don't hesitate to ease up on production if you're getting fatigued. I know the algorithm punishes inconsistency, but I'd be happy with shorter or less research-intensive videos every once in a while that give you a chance to catch your breath.

[@dawnmoriarty9347]

Better less frequent Perun than broken Perun

[@SideKickStudios]

Agreed. Highlight of the week in terms of bite size portion of well scripted and researched information. And the best part is while often speculative, it does paint a picture that despite the odds, Ukraine truly has the potential to be David and beat the Goliath for good this time.

[@jcorey333]

I don't want Perun overexerting himself, I'd rather lighter weeks or breaks once in a while, too.

[@bos1200]

Peruns powerpoints is still the best content Ive found on the war. Hell, some of the best content on the platform, period. Thank you Perun.

[@MrBeny]

Your point is totally fair, but I would argue that high quality videos once every two weeks are far superior to lower quality every week. That said, let's pay his Patreon and let him decide.

[@human_isomer]

I think one of the reasons your PPPs without any moving pictures are so successful is the sophisticated irony woven into the sometimes a bit dry(-ish) content. And of course the very thoroughly investigated and researched data - goes without saying ;) Happy new year, looking forward to all of your coming presentations 🎉🧨🎆🦘

[@Zei33]

Your hard work has not gone unnoticed. Keeping such a consistent release schedule is very impressive. Good video, very interesting. As a Queenslander, it’s nice to know the government isn’t completely stupid about manufacturing.

[@hlim431]

Do tell us what manufacturing is left in Queensland or Australia

[@Zei33]

@@hlim431 MQ-28A

[@nutsackmania]

aren't there like more people in texas than the entire country of australia

[@Zei33]

@@nutsackmania so? The US is basically the European Union. Bunch of separate countries under the same banner. You just use different labels. But the reality is, the states have differing laws much like the EU. Think of the federal government like the European council.

[@ktsaylor5947]

This dropped about an Hour Ago, and already has about 2.5k Views ! A testament to the quality of the content and value to the viewers - Thx Perun for the insights, amalgamation of such broad categories of information and humor in your delivery.

[@darrenneven8533]

We're hungry...

[@willgary8792]

@@darrenneven8533 it really is crazy how little of this type content is out there

[@Bill_Garthright]

I'm often weeks behind in watching videos from the channels I subscribe to. But this one always jumps the queue, because I know it's going to be great.

[@harrywright6544]

" you can't fit a bayonet to a howitzer when it runs out of ammunition" You can't with that attitude.

[@macmcleod1188]

I picture a half dozen soldiers carrying an artillery Barrel with a huge bayonet on it charging the enemy line.

[@harrywright6544]

@@macmcleod1188 I'm willing to bet at least one British commanding officer at least thought about putting a bayonet onto a howitzer once.

[@hkkim5676]

Korean 155mm stockpile hasn't announced, but we have some estimates of 105mm howitzer ammo. It is around 3.3~3.5 million, and it's enough amount for 100 years from now on if there's no major war during that time. Rumor in Korea says we have around 4 million 155mm rounds but nobody knows for sure...

[@PerunAU]

4 million is reasonable but I agree, it's impossible to get good figures (which is understandable)

[@unknowncommenter6698]

Yeah, that's only if there's no war. But if NK decides to do a little trolling, those millions would probably go out in a matter of months, especially if it's gonna be same levels of consumption as in Ukraine with tens of thousands shot every day.

[@SRFriso94]

“When Hollywood makes Lord of War 2, the arms dealers are going to be the good guys.” I was in a full train when I reached that bit, and it was really hard not to burst out laughing. Lord of War is one of my favorite movies, so that was extra funny to me.

[@shmeckle666]

No. Probably just follow Viktor Bout after being released by the US recently last month. Since the first one was heavily inspired by him and others.

[@anna-flora999]

​@@shmeckle666 that would make for a very boring movie

[@zopEnglandzip]

@@anna-flora999 3rd floor windows and trips to north Korea maybe could make it interesting.

[@peceed]

Oh shit, I thought they already were good guys in Lord of War 1 ;)

[@CMY187]

Lord of War (2005) is my favorite movie of all time. Though in my opinion, there are no good guys. Orlov in the movie would sell to anyone who is willing to pay him (he made an exception with Bin Laden because the guy had a reputation for failing to pay his suppliers)

[@serhiy-serhiiv]

Hey Perun, may i suggest a video topic: history of Ukrainian weapon exports. It's a topic that is sometimes brought up (like when discussing the T-84), however, there's barely any content on it. UPD: Yes, i am aware that task and purpose did a video on T-84. However, the comment was discussing Ukrainian exports in general and only brought up the T-84 as an example.

[@kit888]

Yeah, some of the Stugna-p screen shots have Arabic writing because they are export models.

[@borisstanislav4560]

Literally Task And Purpose just did a video on the T-84 a day or 2 ago.

[@insaniacproductions5775]

"Task & Purposes" did a video just yesterday on the T-84

[@killer3000ad]

Task and Purpose did a video on the T-84 tank that Ukraine developed after becoming an independent nation. He has also covered a variety of other individual weapon systems used in the conflict. Also check out channels like RedEffect and LazerPig who also concentrate on specific weapon systems. Perun tends to look at things from the big picture (forest view) rather than the smaller things like individual weapon systems (the trees) and I like this content.

[@theovansteijn1135]

On "abandoned places" a KZbin channel once was an upload of the biggest tank manufactoring company of the USSR now out of business. In Charkov Ukrain hundreds of most Sovjet style tanks from the T60 and onwards standing in rows upon rows, rusting away I wonder if this upload can still be found.

[@SeniorDrummer]

Great information! I now know more than 99% of English speaking people about the ammunition subject in terms of the Russian/Ukraine war thanks to your well researched commentary! Will look forward to hearing from you again and finding other work that you done . Well done .

[@dennisfreeberg7279]

In the early 90's there was an auction at the Presto Manufacturing facility in Eau Claire, Wisconsin and I went to check it out. All of the old machine tooling to make shells were being sold for pennies on the dollar, and I assume most of it went for scrap. All of this old tooling and machinery was in excellent shape, as the U.S. government had been paying Presto to maintain the equipment in peak condition since World War II. I wonder how many of these plants were scrapped after the fall of the Soviet Union.

[@Elkarlo77]

Germany had stated owned underground shell factories in case of a Nuclear strike, to produce around 100k Shells. Were dissasembled in the 00's.

[@BearOldcastle]

@@Elkarlo77 ok do tell any famous ones or spiegel articles?

[@mrsock3380]

If it's WW2 technology being preserved it was a good decision to scrap them, not long ago watched a WW2 production video of what looks like 105 artillery rounds, it took 10 individual machines to make one bare projectile, I'm a machinist and have operated machines in the 90s that you could load a forging in and pull out a finished projectile except the driving band in minutes. Converting that old stuff to produce 155 wouldn't be worth anyones time.

[@murphy7801]

I suspect not many where scrapped tbh. When came to defense manufacturing. If it was inside russia. They kept going because they could make export money.

[@dennisfreeberg7279]

@@mrsock3380 I was a Manufacturing Engineer, so I would agree with you wholeheartedly on that. I wasn't saying it was a bad decision to scrap them, I was just commenting on how long the U.S. kept so many of these old plants available for so long. While I was working at Giddings & Lewis Machine Tool in the 90s (now Fives/Giddings & Lewis) we were making huge mills and lathes for the big arsenals like Watervliet and Rock Island. I assume those are now making shells and missiles for the government.

[@GARDENER42]

I note that BAE is constructing a new 155mm production line at its factory in Washington, (Tyne & Wear, UK) to double capacity. This will be the L15 which is TNT/RDX filled.

[@ivancho5854]

Excellent news. 🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@willbxtn]

Increased economic activity in NE England? Good. More shells for Ukraine? Good. Russia being annoyed about that? Very good.

[@pedroprague]

Very impressive video. I admire that a lot of research have been done before publishing this video. Please also bear in mind that some ammunition is still made in ex-soviet countries (I am from Slovakia). There are factories in Bulgaria which have been in full production over all 2022 selling soviet calibers ammunition to Poland ;). There are still production in Poland, Czech Republic for soviet weapons used by Ukraine. In addition there were deliveries of 155mm from Pakistan. So it is not only US stock, but supplies are from all around the world. Production is also growing inside Ukraine itself. So Ukraine will have some kind so supply over longer period of time. With the devastation of Russian bases in Ukraine and warehouses they logistic will by under very strong pressure. I hope that finally Russia will withdraw from the conflict during 2023. I really hope so.

[@DM-ci5uv]

Thank you, Perun! Seeking your videos since the start of this senseless war for answers to questions I didn’t know I had. Keep up the great work! Wishing this awful war ends soon and you can inform us on other niche defense economic topics we actually all keep craving for each week. Best wishes to all affected in Ukraine and you all! Cheers!

[@sixstringedthing]

I'm sure everyone would have been fine with Perun taking a well-earned break between xmas and new year's yet here he is with another excellently researched analysis, demonstrating his impressive level of commitment to producing this content once again. Bravo mate, hope you have a great NYE and kickoff of 2023, cheers! 🍻

[@cy-one]

Yep, when I read his post about this video being dropped in a few hours, I was like "Oh... We get another video this year? Didn't expect that, but thankoo :3"

[@darrenneven8533]

Mmmhmm. Have a great Nye👍

[@dawnmoriarty9347]

Definitely a bonus

[@phoenixfridge1495]

I agree HNY to all

[@tarajones8790]

Thank you. Because of all the controversial reports, I pretty much quit listening to anything having to do with ammunition shortages. Your extensive research and explanation has been greatly appreciated.

[@Kirkrrr]

Perun, you're one of the best when it comes to providing clear-eyed, non-biased information regarding this gross war. Please take a well-deserved break, have a great holiday, and I look forward to your videos in the new year. Thank you so much for your work.

[@varga88d]

Thank you, Perun, for all the hard work this year!

[@u.h.h4915]

♥️👍🏻♥️

[@heretical_cuttlefish]

35:19 Given how many Americans, myself included, often feel like we are talking to a brick wall when we say that our allies should step up to the plate when it comes to military production, this is actually a comfort to hear

[@chickenfishhybrid44]

wHaT aRe yOU a trUmp sUpPoRTer?

[@alanholck7995]

I recall Churchill (who was Minister of Munitions in WW1) saying somewhere that when you ramp up production, the first year, you get nothing. By the end of the second year, you get at trickle. The third year, you get a lot, and the fourth year, you get huge amounts.

[@TJRex01]

“I get to sneakily turn this into a defense economics video” - look Perun, we all know why we are here, there is no need to be coy about it

[@dawnmoriarty9347]

I snickered at that comment

[@LeCharles07]

No matter how many times I hear it, the shell consumption in WW1 is just mind boggling. There were so many shells fired that practically every inch of ground was hit at one point or another. How anyone survived was just blind luck.

[@jdelark6428]

An unexpected post-Christmas treat! Happy New Year Perun and my fellow procurement enthusiasts!

[@sciencetube4574]

Perun getting fast with those uploads. Happy New Year, everyone. May it bring peace to Ukraine, and hopefully freedom to Russia.

[@firstmkb]

Enjoy your VERY well-deserved break! The channel is great for me because I get some understanding of Ukraine, without having to source the details that you thrive on. I may not be educated on it, but am certainly less ignorant!

[@occamraiser]

Quality workmanship as ever. Thanks a million. And, Happy New Year ofc.

[@MrMingmang]

I started watching these videos because it reminded of the intelligence briefings I would receive while deployed. Now I watch them because you're by far one of the most well put together sources of information out there.

[@jimtalbott9535]

A while back I worked for a company involved with “Demilitarization” work - and I can say that these processes move VEERRRRRY SLOOOWLY. So most of that cluster-joy isn’t going anywhere fast. Ironically, one obstacle to delivering that sort of ammo to Ukraine would be the disposal companies lobbyists; they make big sweaty gobs of cash from some of that work. Letting the Ukrainians “dispose” of it for us makes a great deal of sense though.

[@michaelneuwirth3414]

This channel teaches you more about history, politics and the military in a few hours than you would have learned in years of watching TV. I hope that at the end of this war the Ukrainian army will award Perun with a medal.

[@splattbinat1542]

And with none of that unnecessary bells and whistles of Tv shows. No loud dramatic music and all that crap. Just the facts presented straight like we are adults.

[@darrenneven8533]

Nailed it! Hammer 🔨 time Michael. Stay safe

[@dawnmoriarty9347]

@@splattbinat1542 yep, not frustrating cliffhanging questions about the super obvious. SUCH a relief to find adult aimed education

[@meowmeowmeow1243]

Countries like Romania and Finland chose not to disclose what they are sending to Ukraine. But i can tell you that Romania reopened two large ammunition factories for mortar and 152mm shells, and they are delivering as much as they can to Ukraine. We will probably know more after the war is over and Russia breaks apart.

[@nian60]

Interesting, thanks for the info.

[@Shatterfury1871]

And 122 mm shells are being sent.

[@ivancho5854]

The same goes for Bulgaria. 👍 Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧

[@Marvin-dg8vj]

Also the Czech Republic has big political reasons to keep Russia away from the Western parts of the Ukraine . It has sent tanks, afvs and self propelled guns on a significant scale

[@macmcleod1188]

I suspect one challenge for Russia is maintaining sufficient power to hold client states that don't want to be client states. But I recall what happened to Yugoslavia in 1996. There is a lot of internal hatred towards muscovites.

[@shaunh5316]

Thanks Perun and best wishes for 2023.

[@robbabcock_]

Wow! What an amazing deep dive into an absolutely crucial & pivotal aspect of the war. No one else is doing this kind of analysis at this level and I'm very grateful for it.👏🙌⚔🙏🇺🇦

[@darrenneven8533]

Yes Rob, he's hard to beat. Best wishes

[@smartguy360]

Well done Perun, these videos are like going to college without all the boring parts I feel like we are all going to become experts in geopolitics and warfare thanks to you

[@TheEvilMrJeb]

323k views in 14 hours. And your channel has about 321k subs. Either your engagement is super high and a few people re-watch, or a bunch of people watch multiple times. Either way I am happy for your success Perun.

[@murdo_mck]

It's topical content so many (maybe most) views are from non subscribers. That's why view counts and subscribers have grown exponentially.

[@flashnfantasy]

“Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars.” - Army General John J. Pershing

[@kenoliver8913]

Or: "Amateurs talk tactics. Professionals talk logistics" - Gen Robert H Barrow, USMC

[@markdailey611]

If I could give this more than one thumbs up, I would. Just enough humor--or is it humour?--to keep me engaged throughout the entire video. Like many others have stated, I look forward to these each week. But as others have also stated, your health is more important than production. We can and will wait eagerly for your videos but at a rate you can sustain. Have a safe and happy new year!

[@seth1455]

it's humour, given he's Australian and is speaking English 🙂

[@Brigadier9]

'Contrary to what some of the Russian drone footage might suggest, the objective of sending a bunch of artillery shells out of a gun is *not* just to turn a field into a lunar-scape. Usually the goal is to *hit something*...'

[@ProtonCannon]

I cannot put to words how thankful I am for all your hard work in 2022. Despite all your travels, illness and everything that befell upon you. Thank you, THANK YOU for everything you have done for the community. I hope hope amongst hope that 2023 will be a year when we will need to talk less about wars but only time can tell. Happy New Year Perun!

[@Potatoshaneko]

Take a break if you need mate, don't burn yourself out. The content you produce is excellent, people will be happy to wait for it.

[@alanchristensen5735]

Most informative, comprehensive and complete discussion of munitions I have ever heard. Thanks for doing it. Retired USMC Gunnery Sergeant. I fired some of those DPICM rounds in Iraq in 2003.

[@wedgeantilles8575]

I just want to say thank you for your videos which offer the highest quality content by far on these topics. You really helped me get a way better and deeper understanding on all of the topics you have covered. Thank you for your effort, thank you for your unbiased analysis, thank you for stating your sources, thank you for making it clear what is guesswork. Happy - and hopefully more peaceful - new year everybody!

[@jonathananonymouse7685]

"...a statement that may lose me a significant share of my audience..." My brother, those you lose because their ego is too fragile to deal with the simple and irrefutable fact that the U.S. isn't #1 across the board... they weren't worth having in your audience. You're better off without them. Keep up the good work. We appreciate you.

[@odinsrensen7460]

"they weren't worth having in your audience" The YT algo doesn't care about their character. Subs are subs.

[@jonathananonymouse7685]

@@odinsrensen7460 I don't care about algorithms. Doms are doms.

[@odinsrensen7460]

@@jonathananonymouse7685 I don't think what you care about is the issue here, but what Perun cares about. And what's a "dom" in your particular lexicon?

[@teresabenson3385]

As an American, I can say that anyone who would unsubscribe over that issue would not be watching Perun's videos in the first place. He's too objective and evidence-based for them. There are plenty of "rah rah, U.S.A. is the best" channels available to them.

[@teresabenson3385]

@@odinsrensen7460 Perun has indicated that he doesn't pursue subs, he already has a good day job. He donates contributions from his patrons to Ukranian aid organizations. His motivation is to spread truth in a cyberworld full of distortion and sensationalization.

[@JustinTimeEnglishClip]

Nice one! Many thanks. Happy New Year 🙂

[@Hansengineering]

You've got a great ability to insert dry humor at just the right periodicity.

[@georgevelez6388]

OP: "Be aware this is a Perun video..." Me: Yes, that is why I am watching it! Hit me with budgets, contracts, procurement issues, numbers, guess, historical data and more! 😀

[@allenfromalameda5691]

Unbelievably detailed analysis. I know more about this issue now than I ever have. Happy New Year. Thank you for your content. Slava Ukraine

[@jimdale9143]

Gen. Carl von Clausewitz had much to say on the fog of war. War in today's information age suffers from a fog of information. As you point out in your introduction a flood of misinformation and disinformation can make it difficult to understand what is really happening. Thank you for cutting through the fog and bringing clarity to key issues. Since an informed public is necessary for democracy to function, the work you are doing is far more valuable than I suspect you give yourself credit for. Again, thank you so much for your excellent work. Have a happy new year and a successful 2023.

[@grimreaper492]

This dude is just taking a few articles then cherrypicking pro-ukrainian information and leaving out anything that might cast a positive spin on Russia then making it into a presentation of some sort. An anti disinformation piece it does not make.

[@dariotroiano5205]

Thanks for everything you have done since the start of this Russo Ukraine war. The amount of light you’ve shed on so many different aspects of this war are so illuminating. Have a happy new year and a great 2023.

[@johnwhitehurst474]

My self am Retired Mil. I have to give you credit! You have come a long ways with the grasp you have of war. Military, Politics around it, on and on. Not just a talking head. Happy new year to you and yours! Keep it up!

[@honzabalak3462]

I see a new Perun video and know I need to watch it ASAP...

[@guywholikesplanes]

Regarding machine tools, the problem is that even their native production ones use FANUC CNC(the brain of the machine), and Fanuc stated that they no longer work with Russia and Belarus, so production might drastically slow down due to this.

[@Lovemy1911a1]

I wouldn't count on it. There are plenty of alternatives to FANUC, including domestic companies in Russia & China. Also with China & India both not interested in helping the NATO proxy war effort the ability to back door these types of products into Russia.

[@guywholikesplanes]

@@Lovemy1911a1 Not aware of any manufacturers of CNC units( talking about the computer unit that controls the machine, not the machine itself) based in Russia. Most of these developers are based in Europe or Japan and Taiwan again, to the best of my knowleage.

[@ronzelina6682]

Ahoj, děkuji za vaši práci, šťastný nový rok. jsi požehnáním pravdy. Thanks, happy new year.

[@cbavender]

Absolutely fantastic content. Thanks for being a source of informed analysis rather than ignorant blathering of opinion. Keep it up

[@pr0xZen]

Thank you Perun, and all your sources and helpers, for expending so incredibly much of your finite personal energy and time, on shining a well educated, analytical and thorough light on the aspects of this massive worldshaping event. I'd argue that _most_ of the information; data and knowledge that you have likely spent the majority of this year carefully researching, curating, packaging with wit and great little jabs, and personally narrared - would otherwise find itself so far spread and deeply buried that it might as well have been forever beyond reach and grasp for the vaaaast majority of us, without you. Of 2022, yours has certainly been the 40++ greatest hour-long defense economics powerpoint presentations of the internets. By far! - And I for one, and I am certain many, oh so many others, am incredibly grateful for this. Thank you, and best wishes for your RnR and the coming year ❤️

[@thermitebanana]

Perun, August 2022; Perun December 2022: "We've only got an hour, so I won't analyse the entire artillery market"

[@IlQSTO]

I'm a simple man, I see a Perun video, i watch it immediately

[@leaveourstatuesalone.3378]

As always your work is great Perun, and just want to say the interview you done with Jake Broe was excellent too, opened up a new source of great info. With 2022 out the way, looking forward to your 2023 campaign….

[@rossmurray6849]

I enjoyed that interview too. I was struck by Perun's description of why he started making these videos. If I recall correctly, he assessed early on that the Ukrainian people had the will to fight until victory was achieved, and that victory was possible, but it would require the sustained political will in Western countries to make that happen. His goal was to spread realistic information so that politicians got their responses right. I cannot say to what extent Perun's podcasts have directly produced this, but Western politicians have got this one (mostly) right. I've been amazed by the levels of bipartisan support to give Ukraine what it needs. So, to Perun: thank you for all of your efforts. I find it hard to imagine how anyone could have provided such effective support for the Ukrainian cause.

[@leaveourstatuesalone.3378]

@@rossmurray6849 yes I totally agree with your assessment above, also with the Jake Broe interview, we got a little more insight into the Perun we all listen to on his this channel , was a little less focused and slightly relaxed.

[@AiRPasternak]

Not even perun is safe from the Rule 34 anymore r/NCD moment.

[@Kozłowski75]

A video to watch before I travel to my family for New Year's Eve? Hell yes.

[@TimChuma]

Was a report in the farming newspaper in Australia about an Australian manufacturing company producing a ute-mounted artillery system. Australia used to have a significant manufacturing capacity left over from WWII. They made a bunch of stuff.

[@johncook2303]

great piece Perun, Thankyou.

[@lauravilsone5554]

Hello Perun! Thank you for your excellent videos! From time to time you sketch in the volunteer efforts to fund and supply arms and army supplies from both sides. Could we have a dedicated video on the current trends and impact on both sides for this? Is the help by NGOs and private organizations/people noteworthy (in comparison to the government supplies) on any of the sides?

[@Ol-ss1og]

that's a great topic to cover indeed! I hope Perun would be able to bypass the standard realpolitik bias when discussing NGOs and other civilian stakeholders during war times

[@HE-162]

I have a number of friends doing volunteer work, from front line(literally sendin me videos where you can see and hear artillery landing) humanitarian work such as civilian evac and supplies delivery, to eod training and body retrieval and ID. From everything they’ve said, the volunteer and NGO effort is astronomical and filling a massive void that is otherwise unlikely to be filled by the Ukrainian military because they don’t have the capacity to do so, or would take up too much logistical capacity to be worthwhile. A not-so-insignificant amount of the cold weather gear, for example, seems to get to the front via volunteers, not the military. IFAKs and other personal items are stockpiled by NGOs and volunteers running depots, only to have the “last mile” delivery made by volunteers. There’s a decent number of civilians doing front line ambulance work and even CASEVAC because the military simply doesn’t have enough manpower or capacity to handle it entirely. This isn’t to suggest that volunteers are doing work that would otherwise not get done, but they’re doing some heavy lifting for sure.

[@dimas3829]

@@HE-162 Yeah, civ evac to harvest organs from dying soldiers indeed. There's big buck made by so-called humanitarians there on organs selling.

[@HE-162]

@@dimas3829 sorry bro I forgot my tinfoil

[@reedr1659]

This is easily one of the best channels I'm subscribed to. I've really enjoyed the long format videos. The power point visuals are interesting when I can actually watch. However, the biggest value to me is I have something interesting to put on and listen to while I'm getting work done. It wouldn't be practical to put on a new video every 10-15 minutes. That would detract too much from getting things done. I appreciate the dry humor and some of that goes a long way to keep the videos engaging, even if it's a good natured ribbing of the U.S. I've been listening since you've started making this type of video and it's been a great ride this year. Looking forward to 2023. Thank you.

[@LT_Cancer]

Found your channel about a month ago. Epic content. Thank you so much

[@SteinhauerNews]

35:45 Actually , I found this very good to know. The channel I am on has a trainer that went to Ukraine, and he use this exact description (how many rounds the Ukrainians are using, and how many rounds the US is sending). Telling us US rounds were going to run out in months. Now he’s probably watching this today so he’s probably gonna calm down on that note. Thank you.

[@Brian-zo1ll]

This is quickly becoming one of my favorite channels. Keep up the good work.

[@Slamboni4k]

Perun here producing the only slideshows I'm literally stoked about

[@amzalkamel3009]

Excellent work, I rarely see videos on KZbin with such levels of detail and thought put on them

[@robertm.8653]

Great video! Thanks for informing us about these topics.

[@mechadonia]

Mate this video is an hour long and came out a minute ago 😂😂 how did you watch it that fast

[@robertm.8653]

@@mechadonia mate, I follow him ever since he talked about the Ukrainian mobilization and Russian equipment issues, I just used logic and assume this is another high quality video

[@mechadonia]

@@robertm.8653 Fair enough honestly you already know it’s a banger without even watching

[@robertm.8653]

@@mechadonia I'm just listening about the history of how shortages affected nations all the time right now, and it's a nice feeling to learn this stuff like I'm back in history class . Have a happy new year btw

[@its_Today_]

@@robertm.8653Mate, there’s zero ‘assume’, you KNOW Perun’s upload is brilliantly analytical. Totally agree with you. And with highly generous shades of humour and sarcasm as required. Best content on KZbin, hands down :-)

[@patrickb1303]

Always good to see more moderate estimates of what’s going on. So tired of the KZbin accounts who are just saying “Russia is completely fucked and the whole army is revolting.” When we know that’s crap. Being sent as cannon fodder is a Russian military tradition. Has been since the Tsars.

[@kimmoj2570]

Time and time again i am impressed by @Perun knowledge. I was almost jumping commenting about 1915, before i saw video at full. In current times countries like Finland and South-Korea has massive stockpiles and significant production capacity. Both could trade large part of their stockpile for assured air support from other countries in free world.

[@jmolofsson]

If we could trust such assurances, yes. The whole Ukraine debacle, from 2014 and on, has repeated the lesson from Yalta (and Tilsit).

[@kimmoj2570]

@Kimmo J One more reason NATO countries should coerce Turkey stop playing games and ratify Finnish+Swedish membership in NATO. Finland has millions after millions of 122mm and 155mm artillery rounds in stockpile. Same time we are at front line of democracy, directly threatened by Putin 1 year a go. We need firepower to keep rabid animal at bay. 2 squadrons of F-16 fighter bombers with ordnance treaty bound dedicated solely for Finland in crisis could release untold millions 122mm and 155mm artillery rounds to Ukraine. They dont have to be based here. Sweden or Norway do as well. Totally doable for NATO.

[@kimmoj2570]

@@jmolofsson Yeah, Finns could only wholesale open our granite caves full of artillery ammo with full NATO membership, and straight down treaty with other alliance members that x and y squadrons do only close air support and interdiction in Finnish front. Time to get fire burning under Turkeys presidents seat?

[@kimmoj2570]

@@jmolofsson If assurances are done by Great Britain, United States, Canada, and our fellow Nordic countries in watertight manner, within NATO... I think it would be doable. Word of many NATO countries is worth 1 cent if that, but above mentioned have vested interest in stability of Nordic region.

[@Alexandra-zp3gr]

@@kimmoj2570 I'd put more emphasis on the Joint Expeditionary Force rather than NATO itself, which Finland is already a part of. These are the countries that you can rely on including the Anglo-American countries likes CAN, US, AUS, NZ. Most of the rest of NATO is too wishy washy and has too many conditions attached to mutual defense to be relied upon when it truly matters. Japan and S Korea are also dependable allies with similar issues to the Baltic region.

[@berthika1219]

No such thing as a dumb question. Thank you for all you have done in the last year. Best content on KZbin by far. Don't need fancy upgrades to you presentations. Concentrate on the research you do which is what make them so fascinating. I've listened to every presentation you have done and I can now with about 95% accuracy predict when you are about to say 'what do I know'!

[@tompalmer5114]

Terrific as usual Happy New Year

[@xfcj1454]

Thanks for an amazing year of content! Feel like I've really learned a lot from your videos, comparable to a module at university for sure. Seriously feels crazy that we live in a world where this content is available, and the fact that it is free is even harder to believe. Please keep going!!

[@knmo2642]

This^ Perun I hope you know we appreciate you. Every week I get a hour of content that I enjoy every time. Plus gaming channel for icing on the cake. From a fan of your content. Thank you.