Are These Vintage Baseball Cards Crashing in Price? (Inspired by Graig of

[@justinjdickerson]

Great vid Sammy, always love seeing that Hank!!! I do think the fluctuations in price are at their most extreme when evaluating the grade 1 cards, no other number grade offers such a dynamic in condition....for example I've seen cards that appear nearly perfect, sans a small pinhole that is barely detectable, getting a grade 1 along with the same card being super well-loved, with numerous creases/punch holes/rough edges&corners/paper loss/etc. also getting a grade 1......this is also reflected in the pricing (folks will pay well over comps for that "pinhole" graded 1 vs. grade 1 that was in a kids bike spokes).....it just adds another layer of evaluation and keeps the hobby fun and interesting but would certainly impact that analysis, especially when looking at those outlier type sales.....keep up the great work sir!!!

[@SammyThunder]

It all comes down to personal preference, I suppose. I think a lot of collectors are only able to afford 1's or 2's of the highest priced cards in the market. I could be wrong, but if I am right on this, then that explains the most extreme fluctuations. The more buyers at the lower grades, the more variance in price due to condition preferences.

[@justinjdickerson]

I've always been a fan of those low-grade/affordable gems myself, you have some wonderful examples in your collection and they're always a pleasure to see!!! Thanks again for the analysis and sharing Sammy...always top notch!!! @@SammyThunder

[@SammyThunder]

The Aaron is thanks to you and Doc!

[@LegendsNeverDieCollection]

Fun look at things Sammy!

[@SammyThunder]

Thanks Jake!

[@pepinoman9271]

I normally don't watch videos focused on prices but had to watch out of curiosity. I'm convinced that 21 was the height of shill bidding by flippers.

[@SammyThunder]

Believe me Cesar, I'm not one for pricing videos. That said, every once in a while I will dig into it just out of sheer curiosity.

[@pepinoman9271]

I hear you, it's a part of being in the hobby

[@jd66cards]

a good time to buy for sure!

[@SammyThunder]

Yes sir!

[@timnolan1860]

Great video I owned most of these cards at one time most definitely agree with you about the 51 bowman mine was a 5.5 sgc

[@SammyThunder]

Thank you! What a great card

[@jp82cards30]

with cards like these this is the kind of period where everyone always looks back and wishes they had been buying

[@SammyThunder]

I think about wishing I was buying back in the 90s, then again, I didn't have the kind of hobby money like I do now.

[@royakard8536]

Just came over from midlife tribe! Now you got me too lol. Enjoy the content.

[@SammyThunder]

Glad to have you on board!

[@JohnMiller-jj9kx]

All of my graded vintage was purchased over the last 12 years. I have kept a log of the card grade, cert#, and price. Most of all my vintage is in a PSA slab and in a 5-7 grade. As an example, I have 200 Kellogg’s from 1970 on up that are 9-10 examples. I paid $8-12 for the most part. A couple of Mays from the 70 set I show as paying $28-35 each. Pricing back in the day was very inexpensive. While I didn’t log dates, I have a general idea of the year these were purchased I remember that my 51 PSA Snider in a 7 cost me me $90 and the 52 M Irvin in a 6 ran me $110. I sure wish I would have worked on Mantle cards s little more . Paying $280-300 on 68 & 69 cards was a deal, but still expensive for the time period. Thanks for sharing.

[@SammyThunder]

Amazing when you think about how different prices were prior to the pandemic!

[@Tony-w8v2m]

Hey Sammy i I had that Russell fleer card in 8 oc about 20 years ago I was vendor seller in long Island area I sell vinyl now

[@SammyThunder]

That's really cool! There is so much vinyl out there. What are the key records that collectors look for?

[@timothyswauger3984]

I can’t spend the same amount on cards as I used to because of the explosion in the cost of living. Disposable income just isn’t there anymore because I have to buy food, gas, and pay rent. Necessities always take priority over non necessities.

[@SammyThunder]

Truth 👆🏻

[@AFRAKER1]

When you’re looking at SGC 1s, you also need to account for potentially massive differences in eye appeal between individual examples. A particular sale that’s, say, only 60 percent of one a couple months before could well be about the cards rather than being reliable data points for a larger trend. That’s not nearly as much of a factor in higher grades.

[@SammyThunder]

That's a great point and I thought about it after the fact. There's a lot to mention in this video, so I didn't want to overdo it on the talking, but you're absolutely right. An SGC 1 could be a card with wrinkles and creases and another could be pinholes and rounded corners.

[@kevingeary2072]

I hope they keep going down because I can then afford some of those cool cards. Nice video!

[@SammyThunder]

We'll see how this pans out.

[@mookiechillson]

Sammy, you’re making us all smarter! And knowledge is power! And that’s one to grow on! Haha thanks Sammy - I love it

[@SammyThunder]

Lol, thanks Mook!

[@Rocketrickj18]

I have noticed a dip in vintage generally. I think it has even begun to affect pre-War as well. The superstars still have to come down considerably in order to be affordable to me.

[@SammyThunder]

The biggest question, which no one can give a definitive answer, is will the prices come back down to where they were before covid?

[@Rocketrickj18]

@@SammyThunder I think they will go lower than they are now if Sellers get more desperate.

[@SammyThunder]

We'll have to wait and see.

[@returntocollecting]

Great video Sammy! I'm seeing similar price swings for the same cards in other grades as well. The most surprising for me is that Aaron rookies are coming back to pre covid prices, but no other vintage GOAT's rookies have reversed to that extent. Thanks for sharing!

[@SammyThunder]

It's hard to say what the future may look like in terms of pricing, but I guess we're all along for the ride.

[@criteriumracer]

Love showing the market of graded 1s. Stuff that i could afford and would consider buying. Thanks Sammy

[@SammyThunder]

That's definitely part of why I made this video. I'm someone who can only afford the lowest grades possible of some of the highest priced cards.

[@ACollectorsDream]

Awesome video Sammy. Thanks so much for sharing

[@SammyThunder]

Thanks Orlando.

[@iconic_baseball]

Great analysis Sammy - thanks for doing the work!

[@SammyThunder]

Thanks Alan!

[@jasonjanega3537]

Honestly prices going down is good for me. It means I can buy more! I am a true collector and one I buy the card I typically don’t look back at prices.

[@SammyThunder]

I typically go the same route. This video is the exception.

[@dk_kardboard]

Very cool, Sammy! Thanks for the insights!

[@SammyThunder]

Thanks Doug!

[@markmaestas1129]

Liked the video Sammy! Cards are a great hobby. But, at this point, they aren't a great long term investment IMO. The fundamentals of supply and demand will always rule and the increase in supply (even in vintage) looks like it will most likely outpace demand for most cards.

[@SammyThunder]

I agree with you with the more traditional card that exist. However, there are some very unique and rare cards that are out there that demand big money because of many varying factors. For example, there is a card out there that celebrates both Coca-Cola, Baseball and Willie Mays. That is very challenging to find because collectors that like collecting Coca-Cola stuff, baseball stuff, or Sports Cards all want that card. People will pay up to have something like that in their collection

[@MidLifeCards]

Appreciate the shoutout Sammy. Awesome cards. The better the card and player, the more it seems to be holding strong right now. Lower grades and lower names, seem to be coming down the fastest. Im buying as a result. Looking forward to connecting soon. We’ve gotta get on a stream or something together soon!

[@SammyThunder]

Thanks Graig. I think this is temporary. Too many external factors playing into this downfall that I think will rebound.

[@ClementeCollector]

Sammy, when I did my deep dive into Clemente prices, I concluded lower grades seem to be holding up better right now then higher grade. Most likely because ppl have smaller budgets and more collectors want to own the card. I do think it’s a great time to buy vintage. Thanks for the deep dive!

[@SammyThunder]

That's interesting because I've had others say the opposite. The lower graded cards are going down, but the mid grade cards are going up.

[@HereForAStorm]

Everything is going down in price that isn't essential to folks... people are struggling out here, myself included.

[@SammyThunder]

Without a doubt. I hear ya.

[@s.macintosh-jc9rf]

Hi Sammy, All I know is that I feel like the hobby is in good hands with people like yourself and Graig of Midlife Sportscards leading the charge. As far as the prices go, the economy is cratering quickly and non essential items are the first to be jettisoned. Thank you for the thoughtful analysis. Peter

[@SammyThunder]

Thank you Peter. Based on the other responses I’ve received, there is a shared consensus that priorities have shifted and understandably so.

[@ZiggyNo]

Great insights 4:54 I’m curious the volume of sales over time. Were the spikes single sales or several? It would also be cool to look at data of previous 15 years prior to 2019. My biggest concern 20 years from now is how many of the vintage will be altered or worse completely fakes. Counterfeiting is getting better and will continue over time.

[@SammyThunder]

There are ways to determine a counterfeit from a real card. I think it's very difficult to find the card stock that was used in the 50s and be able to replicate it.

[@ZiggyNo]

@@SammyThunder today. But not in 20 years. Counterfeiting altering and more and more vintage show up. It’s a declining asset imo with very few exits. Just because 1 sold for X doesn’t mean the next will. That why I ask about sales volume.

[@SammyThunder]

I think it's difficult to predict what the future will look like. @@ZiggyNo

[@ZiggyNo]

@@SammyThunder I agree completely. That’s why I don’t buy or encourage other to collect vintage with any expectation of future value. I feel the same for modern. These are worthless pieces of cardboard to 99.9% of the world. Let’s not forget 🤣

[@SammyThunder]

I agree that should not be the focal point of collecting (expectation of future value). However, I do not think they will become worthless or devalued. I know that's not what you implied (or I don't think that's what you were implying). @@ZiggyNo

[@RipFan8]

Hi Sammy. Good video of what is going on in the vintage market. I'm happy with the vintage market trending down, as it provides me a better opportunity to pick up more cards that I am after. Thanks for sharing.

[@SammyThunder]

It’s definitely a good time to be buying!

[@davidbobo9740]

Great vid. Is it the right time to sell vintage ? I've been collecting since the 70's . Still in my shoebox , not graded .

[@SammyThunder]

Tough question, vintage stays fairly steady. If you’re a collector, I’d only sell if you need money or want to buy something else with the money.

[@poormansstack]

I say economy has a lot to do with it. I think it can use a little more cooling off.

[@SammyThunder]

A lot of external factors play into it. Definitely the economy.

[@BaseballTimeTraveler]

Really nice presentation, Sammy. I re-entered the hobby only six months ago, so I did not experience the so called "Covid spike". As you stated, there are so many factors that can impact the buying and collecting habits of card hobbyists. It might be interesting to analyze, as an example, some 1950's and 60's high number "commons" and or non-HOF All Star caliber players. Have those cards risen or fallen or flattened on a relatively similar percentage basis with the HOFers during the same five-year period? You did a great job, like Graig, of presenting some interesting and informative data. Thanks for taking the time. Well done.

[@SammyThunder]

I appreciate the kind words. Unfortunately, I'm not as analytical as others when it comes to the hobby. I may venture into this further by taking your suggestion of looking at high numbers non HOF All Stars and providing some insight there, but this is a good start for me.

[@thedrewavintagelegacy6455]

Very interesting Sammy. I have three out of the four of these all in lower grade so I put in what I paid years ago in my thoughts. I don’t pay much attention to prices since I don’t buy or sell much but keep the thoughts of value in my mind just to know. There are a few other big players who spiked during the boom that wonder how they have been affected namely Jackie Robinson. His stuff used to be around the same or a bit lower than Aaron. This is since I started in vintage up to the boom. You knew you could always get a nice looking but low grade Robinson from 53-56 for under $100 but they always sell so many times I would find one at a good price and flip it in a trade towards my advantage. Then the boom happened and I feel I have what I have and don’t know if I’ll ever get another one. Anyway, very interesting and I appreciate you sharing.

[@SammyThunder]

Thanks Drew! I’m sure Jackie’s cards also experienced a similar effect as well. I’d have to look it up.

[@wonderfootball]

All the examples have 3-4x'ed since 10/19. Like most vintage, is there enough long-term interest to keep people buying these cards at those 4x prices? There is a long way down. This isn't even factoring in the current and future economy.

[@SammyThunder]

I thought about this as well. My first thought was whether or not the prices of these cards will come back down to where they were pre-covid.

[@wonderfootball]

I think they do (at least close) but time will tell. There was a quick trip to vintageland by the flippers but they are gone. Is there a line of buyers for these cards at $2,000? $1,000? Most vintage collectors I know want 1 and then move to a different card. Any nostalgia, investment or floor price stories just make it easier for us to sleep at night for overspending on cards. And like I mentioned in the 1st post, this isn't even counting inflation, student loan payments, rent, no stimmy checks, etc... @@SammyThunder

[@vintageonvintage817]

Great video Sammy. I think coarse correction in the card market are normal especially I todays economy. With inflation where it is and the cost of everyday items people are having to make purchase decisions and non essentials are getting cut.

[@SammyThunder]

That's definitely the consensus among those that have commented so far. However, if that is the case, why are card shows still maxing out? Is it just windowshoppers?

[@jpwiscobaseballcards1192]

I honestly hope these come down a bit more. Low grade SGC should give people a second chance at grabbing cards like this.

[@SammyThunder]

Yeah. I'd say so.

[@Bostnfn]

For someone who has none of those cards, I hope they keep coming down. Obviously for those of you who were lucky to get in early, I hope they keep their value or go up.

[@SammyThunder]

I don't see them going down to pre-covid prices, but for what it's worth, it seems like now is a good time to buy.

[@richardprice8951]

I'm not so sure when Willie passes that his cards will go up because of it. It's certainly possible his signed cards could go up. It's not something I like to think about, but it's something that should at least be mentioned. Long Live The Say Hey Kid!

[@HereForAStorm]

They will go up for a few weeks and then back down, it always happens.

[@richardprice8951]

@@HereForAStorm Great point! I completely agree. I've seen that happen before, too.

[@ACD1994]

In each of the 4 examples the current price is, still ahead of the 2019 ones. Before Covid. I think most of us, who knew about the junk wax era were aware that the 2020-2021 prices were not going to be sustainable for the long term. My concern however, isn't prices being lower, but the shadiness of dealers and bad actors in the hobby. Since the hobby isn't regulated, being scammed is unfortunately something we all have to worry about. Especially when it comes to online transactions.

[@SammyThunder]

For those new to the hobby, it's important to find someone who has been in the hobby for a while to provide keen insight on what to look for and what not to look for.

[@oarancards4443]

All this stuff your buying is not rare its all common easy to obtain.printed in the millions ,now Darby chocolates complete box with Cobb now you got balls😳

[@SammyThunder]

Just to clear this up, I don't consider these cards rare. Lol, I love the reference of having balls if I buy a complete box of Darby Chocolates with Ty Cobb. Thanks for the chuckle

[@paulnicholson5937]

Way overpriced, as are all cards, but crashing, probably not, still over priced.

[@SammyThunder]

I wouldn't go as far as saying all cards are overpriced.