Avoid This Common GTO Bet Sizing MISTAKE

[@BlackRain79Poker]

How would you play this poker hand? Also, check out my latest video to learn the simple strategy that has skyrocketed my results lately: kzbin.info/www/bejne/hXvceYSCgt10ibs

[@shanejett3550]

Good video. A few questions, or none really lol. I do deff like betting stronger on the flop, 66% - 75% with one player & a fish. Maybe 50% - 66% turn. Betting stronger should or could slightly narrow recs & low stakes players range. So a Q trips maybe is more likely. I'm not against GTO but should we ever check river when betting streets stronger, considering villain should have a stronger calling range? Considering villain shows up with QQQ8 I would guess villain can't check raise the river but ONLY call with such a weak Q. I guess all things considered then, value betting AA on the river, even if we value bet every street more aggressively is valuable, +EV, considering a weak Q should never really raise the river? So Villain rarely raises us off our hand, can't as easily raise OP for value and has many hands that might want to call for value or bluff catch.

[@wildricknarcissot6031]

how you think it's a mistake to check back at the end when you expect vilain 1 not to pay you on the river, the pot stay the same regardless, at least you get to see what he played with....keep ur explaination to yourself you suck big time !!!!!

[@wildricknarcissot6031]

you don't crush shit man !!!! Fraudboy !!!!

[@wildricknarcissot6031]

you would probably have called if he had gone all in 😂😂😂 it's a waste of time to listen to you....

[@louisiles1446]

Thanks for reviewing my hand nathan, I've slept alot since I sent it to you! I've evolved somewhat as a poker player since I played this hand, I would probably have played this hand similarly to how you suggested, 75% on the flop against a fish and then 1/3 pot on the river and likely fold to a villian jam

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks again for sending it to me Louis, and sorry it took so long! So many people have sent me hands to review :)

[@owenkellogg3130]

I'm playing on Ignition with my phone. I don't like to give timing tells by struggling to get that slider where I want it; I had been using the 1/2 pot button to raise flop and turn for convenience. Switching to the 3/4 pot button has increased my winnings dramatically. Thanks!

[@pokergeniusordonkey6517]

I would agree with Hero's check on the river, if he had bet bigger on the flop, narrowing Villain's range to more Qx hands rather than the other hands mentioned.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks for your thoughts as always PGOD!

[@volvobill1394]

I agree with the check back on river tbh. Don’t think he’s calling with much that we beat. He never has KK or AK, flush draws fold, we’re only really getting called by a Q or shoved on by boats.

[@Hematom87]

Check back on the river might be fine if you want to play it safe. But I cannot agree with your range depiction as only Qs and nuts would call. I mean his range must be very wide when he is calling such trash in the small blind. He can have pocket pairs 33,66-JJ or any small pair with a missed draw. Do you really think he would fold it to a small river bet?

[@robertellis8561]

I think the main reason for checking back on the River here is the danger of getting raised/shoved (by anything). We don't have enough to call a raise, so we risk 'betting ourselves off the hand'. One of the benefits of being in position is to be able to check back in situations like this.

[@Hematom87]

Sure but the problem is the player type and limit. Here in the microstakes do we really expect this guy to bluff raise us on the river with a made hand or A high? After us barreling all streets? Definitely no. Therefore no need for pot control.

[@elwinvanwees8516]

Agree, player pool does not bluff rivers as much as you think. I'd even go as far as always folding my middeling hands to river raise at NL2 - NL5

[@liveslowlivesimple]

bet sizing should be totally dependent on player type. a good poker player will not play AA the same way against a fish vs. a reg. when i was crushing NL5 i employed the "GTO" 1/3 size bet on the flop quite regularly, even against fish, and it worked quite well for me. the key is knowing when to use different bet sizings (ie. betting small when you know youre way ahead is probably better than betting big and blowing them out of the hand). i was winning at about 12BB/100 doing this so it kind of works..

[@hunterlarson6893]

This is good to know. I’m currently studying exploitative bet sizing in poker. From what I’ve learned this is probably how I’d go about this too.

[@danielhenry6777]

i feel like you saying the 1/3 pot size bet on the flop is bad but most gto players are going to bet a little over pot on the turn with this hand so i feel like it balances out. I feel like you can still get most of your stack on by the river with the gto strategy plus by betting a 1/3 pot you could get the bad player UTG to make a really bad call and make the pot even bigger

[@evadecaptcha]

If it's not quite as big a fish, like 35-40 vpip (rather than 50), should we still go for the 40% pot bet on the river? Or should we only check behind, if it's like a reg? Also, I'm assuming when we do make the half pot bet on the river against a big fish, if we get raised, we should fold? Or more specifically, probably call a mini-raise, and fold to bigger raises? This second question is more specifically regarding passive fish. I usually get a good feel for whether I should call a check shove from an aggro fish depending on how nutty they are.

[@keithharris3980]

I think I would agree with heroes check on the river. Nathan, Let's do a bit of reverse psychology. Villain is obviously a reasonable player because he has built up a large stack. His stats might not reflect his true ability. If you had a set of queens in your hand and you had somebody betting into you on the flop and turn it makes sense that he would check to induce a bet on the river, so he could jam all in and either get you to fold all call. Hero has bet into villain on the last two streets so would put him down as having aces or kings. If you raise again on the river you are only having weaker hands fold to you. I.e. pocket pairs and a Kx hands, leaving Queen X hands The only possibility. If you get re-raised on the river and you fold what's the point in raising on the river in the first place?

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks for your thoughts Keith! The river decision seems pretty split so far in the comments. For me personally, thin value betting on the river has been one of my biggest keys to success at these stakes, so I am always firing if I see any chance of getting looked up. It's great for my image also! Haha

[@pokermindredgyvlogs9442]

Hi, Bet for Value is EV+ for this spot, but if is Agro- fish, check-raise is serious opportunity to maximize the spot???

[@MegaKalkas]

I always thought, for pocket AA at specifically, that you should always go all-in preflop if you have the chance - meaning, you raises at first and if someone re-raises, you re-raises and so on until all-in, because of the math. So, I take from this video that this is wrong?

[@kaizze8777]

Completely agree with the bet sizing in micro stakes. You bet for VALUE. And get PAID! GTO mostly affects players that actually THINK but I agree with Nathan that micro isn't the place for thinking. But fish that drink alcohol and whales willing to PAY YOU if you just bet right

[@nicolaspaliaga9399]

Thanks so much for all this free content! I have been reading and watching your videos for a while and I notice that you often stress to bet more in this situations. But from what I've experienced in this low stakes tables, people tend to fold all the time unless they have a made premium hand... Even preflop in zoom (fast) poker, when I bet 3x BB most the times I just end up stealing the blinds and don't get value of premium hands. What do you think? Thanks so much in advance

[@terencehill3972]

Hah! You got him

[@asianeu8079]

that is still better than limping and getting owned by 83o from the BB lol

[@betwixtX]

what would u have done if villain had reraised ur 40% bet on the river in this case?

[@84Gunslinger]

Fold obviously.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Yup, easy fold

[@betwixtX]

@@BlackRain79Poker i have been following your micros strategies for a year now and im still only breakeven after 300 000 hands, im starting to think its a scam

[@yznaiber7598]

I'm binge watching your videos on 1.5 speed. Good stuff! Thank you.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thank you Y Znaiber, glad my videos help you!

[@kame_kura]

Whenever Nathan says "recreational player" I mentally replace it with "huge fish".

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Haha, I am trying to be more "politically correct" these days. I really do mean huge fish!

[@Hematom87]

@@BlackRain79Poker Very wise from you, one must be careful. It might be a whale for instance, which is technically not a fish...

[@terencehill3972]

@@Hematom87 Did you know that every pike is a spear, but not every spear a pike?

[@AfflictionWL]

I agree with the bigger bet on the flop(for ex. 75~80%pot), but the river bet i disagree a little. A smaller bet may induce a check raise from your opponent and then you can be in a terribly tough spot.. If you were going to bet, i’d rather recommend a bet around 60~70%pot, for an easier fold in case of a check raise. Otherwise a check back looks good too. Just a personal opinion...:)

[@AfflictionWL]

Of course, if the villain was a very passive player and there was less possibility of a check raise, a small value bet could be nice too. As we all know, its about the player not the cards ;) hehe

[@menhunttt]

I'm curious about the villain's stats. He is a 50/25 and 3 AF, doesn't this characterize him as a maniac? An aggro fish could check/raise on the river, thinking our bet shows weakness. My decision would be either to check behind or bet a really small amount, like 0,44 or 0,52, to induce a check-raise.

[@evadecaptcha]

@@menhunttt That is true, I have seen many of these more aggressive fish check shove with things like A5, 56, A2 in this spot, if you downsize your bet on the river. Though it'd be really hard to call a shove on that river regardless, while deep stacked, which is why I would've leaned towards checking behind until I saw this video.

[@safuurooster4131]

The pocket Aces let the Villain chase him down and win the pot. I have seen many people play pocket Aces and Kings that way. I play mostly tournaments and I put out big bets and all ins pre-flop with pocket Aces and pocket Kings. At least if someone draws out on me, they paid to do it.

[@emmanuelvacakis4463]

Therefore bigger bets on the flop and turn are in order. When the river its, you should know you are beat. If he bet the river, you could and even should fold.

[@iamtheCircus]

Why would villain 2 "not likely have A4"? Seems like a hand a rec player would stick around with. Especially for the lower flop bet sizing. Just saying "He probably doesn't have A4" doesn't work. Maybe bc you have 2 of the aces, but obviously that's not enough to assume your opponent doesn't have an ace.

[@andreasvimfeliciano2696]

Been really improving lately with these types of vids. Thanks Nathan!!

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks Andreas glad my vids help!

[@gustavodanielvrancich4936]

In general i agree i follow you. But, i dont wait for blind to enter couse i feel that waste my time since i want to get action quickly and 1 blind i think i can profit more by playing then waiting. No complete stack well i get in games with 80 bb . X2 3 tables. Iam in the look for a change since iam not winning in cash as i do in tourney. So iam open to follow your advise.... gretting from argentina.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks for your thoughts Gustavo!

[@fekigrejps7859]

Idk about thin value. Sure you will get calles from 66 77 88 99= 24 combo. Losing 55 22 44 54 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 QT QJ A3.... Milion combos 😆

[@jamesburford6531]

Question (if anyone would be so kind). Iv just started playing poker (only for play money atm). However, i will soon be looking to attempt microstakes and wondered what peoples views are on the different sites available. Iv read so many conflicting reviews of PP, PS, UNi and 888. Any recommendations on which site is the best? ie, freerolls, fish etc. Thanks and keep up the great videos. Im binging these like a MoFo.

[@67geetar]

I play on PS & PP, PS = bigger player pools, HUDs are allowed, PP more freerolls no HUDs etc. I live in UK and tend to play on PP during peak hours 17:00 - 23:00 and PS off peak

[@jamesburford6531]

@@67geetar Thank you. I live in Scotland so thats good to know. What are your views on HUDs? As im new and dont yet understand them, i feel id be at a disadvantage. Thanks for the insight.

[@67geetar]

@@jamesburford6531 Sorry for the delay - missed the notification. The HUD I use on stars helps me make a lot of decisions - I multi-table MTT's and miss a lot of the action - but they don't actually do anything that you can't do yourself by taking effective notes, also, you need quite a high number of hands on each villain before a lot of the stats can really be relied upon. Would recommend sticking to 1 table, focus on how the 2 players to your left and the 2 to your right are playing and use the hand re-player (on PS and PP) to take notes on the hands that go to showdown, don't worry about GTO in the micros, focus on exploitative play, 1 of the biggest mistakes in the micros is calling too much so identify those players and bet big against them when you have a good hand. Nathan (Blackrain79) has some amazing content on micro/low stakes cash games, so check all that out and focus on building a solid ABC game and then maybe experiment with a HUD (keep in mind a lot of sites are banning HUDS) as you start playing more tables. Good luck mate.

[@jamesburford6531]

@@67geetar Thank you. Very helpful. Im about to enter my very first freeroll on Pokerstars in 45 minutes...

[@ianhurley767]

lets say he had value bet one third pot and got check raised all in, would you fold or consider a call?

[@pPriitVv]

fold. Nobody ever bluffs this spot and it is hard to see a profitable call to a 52Q4Q board river check-raise.

[@camsnow9822]

in microstakes, this is almost always the nuts. Unless my opponent is an absolute aggro monkey and/or ive seen him do this with a busted draw or some small pp that he didnt know what to do with, it's a hate life and fold spot. the player at tis level arent creative/aggressive enough to check raise bluff the river

[@dzikijohnny]

That's actually the other reason to bet smaller on the river when you are deep stacked.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Always folding. River re-raises are always the nuts at the micros. See my first book :)

[@TheOnlyToast]

So if we bet the river for 1,50$ and villian clicks it back to 3$, do we fold?

[@battlingphoenix]

Just finished a sesh today which was 8 hours long, and I averaged a 30BB+ is that good

[@m1kegt]

Great video. But lets suppose that we bet on the river 35-40% and we get raised 2.5-3x. What do we do? We call or fold?

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks Mihai! Easy fold if we get raised.

[@DjAdam16]

Great video and line of thinking. Thank you.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks Adam, glad this one helped you!

[@jasonbaxter5990]

I agree with the Hero. He raised right pre-flop and SB decided to gamble. With his Q-8 off suit out of position. Like Nathan said. These are bad players and rec players playing that many hands. He got lucky this time this is a player that probably has a graph that goes down and some ups but going in a downward motion. Clearly not a winning player. This is the type of player we want sitting at our table. If our hero had the Q with a better kicker then a double up from our hero would've been 100%. Nobody's folding top pair. Unless it was an all in on the turn and you can take insurance with a Jam on the Turn. Still making some money. I would've Jammed on the turn period. Flush draw straight draw board. Forget about GTO switch gears to Exploitive and get it all in. I thought this was going to be an all in cring call at the river from our hero but he checked I was already thinking he has the Q with JQ 10Q or KQ or a suited Q with a back door straight or flush potential. He kept checking because he knew he had kicker problems. You know what this guy just got lucky period! Checking the river was the best play. I thought the villain was going to Jam on the river and our hero was going to make a crying call... The Hero bets twice the pot. We don't even know our hero's VIP either. Did our hero just make a raise in the previous pot or 2 in a row. The villain is early position so he might be calling with a suited connectors or suited gappers or off suit of the same. Including broadway cards. The check call was a suited Queen with some kind of back door straight draw/flush draw. Even an opened ender that missed. its easy to become wise once you've seen the hand play out. But I put him on some sort of Queen and i thought it was going to be a crying all in call. Check Check was good to me. I would've checked it too. There was a full house if he was slow playing a set hoping he had a Q for a re-raise river - trips and a completed draawing hand. Check was the trap - check check was good. All 3 hands can beat Aces wired no matter how many times u run it lol

[@Jonnies_Plays]

Hi! I would go for at least half pot on the flop, otherwise seems fine to me. Just cause You said villain has fishy stats he can easily overcall all PP even oop. So If we wont be able to min bet fold to a raise ott with AA, then better check :)

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks for your thoughts here Jonnies!

[@orbitaLrecon]

Another great video, keep them coming! I agree with betting more on the flop and betting the river.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks as always for watching orb!

[@djangogeek]

Yeea when the board gets "scary" on the river but we still have the range adv and betting lead we can just bet 1/3 and use pool reads to decide if we call a raise

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Agreed djang thanks for your thoughts!

[@nicks210684]

Ugh. Q8 offsuit. This hand tilts me just watching it.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Haha that's the fun of the micros though!

[@nicks210684]

You talk a lot about stack size and how with 150BBs we aren’t auto stacking off with AA. Presumably that only goes for a single raised pot?

[@BlackRain79Poker]

As usual in poker, it depends on a lot of different factors.

[@timothybarlow4405]

On flop: We need to bet big because there’s no real two pair combinations On river: we need to bet because there’s a lot of counterfeited two pair hands we can get value from Lmaooo

[@stupedousify]

SO lets say he followed advice Vill would shove on river and Hero would have to call no?

[@marksimpson2321]

I disagree with your view that 80%p on flop is most ev play. Unless opponent is really bad, you will be struggling to get allin even with 80% p on flop and yoi keep in far more weaker hands.

[@je7055]

if Hero had bet .50 instead of half-pot into .64 on the flop, he could've bet 1.30 into 1.64 on the turn with 4.20ish behind giving him approx. a pot-sized shove on the river. i'm guessing you meant an 80%p bet folds out too many of Villain's weaker hands? i sort of agree, but i tend to prefer sacrificing a bit of value in exchange for lower variance, so on this hand i'm looking to get 3 streets of value with the overpair, just not looking to stack off. if Hero wants to stack off though, i don't think 80%p bets are going to scare off too many weaker hands that wouldn't also fold to a 33-50%p bet - it just seems like the pool's calling ranges vs. c-bets are so inelastic at the micros. i'm actually curious what c-bet sizing Nathan uses when he misses the flop, his cheat sheet says 50%-67%p but i'm wondering if you really lose all that much fold equity by going down to 33%-40%p at the micros (on dry flops that is)

[@karolineforbs5562]

That always gets me tilted. When people call your 3bet with hands like Q8of. 🙈 2NL is like an ocean full of fishes 🤩

[@claudiakoning]

if you get tilted about opponents basically donating money to you, you're doing it wrong.

[@badspinbowling]

Why couldn’t he have had pocket queens?

[@emmanuelvacakis4463]

He has many queens in his range. He has all the queens in his range.

[@andrewburke6707]

Gotta love people calling with q8 and hitting the miracle.

[@zwrdl]

I think given that in retrospect he started with Q8o OOP, making him a bit of a fish no matter what his stats, once the Q hit the flop villain was going to stay in no matter what the bet since he figured he had top pair which would be good enough. I don't think he gave much thought to Hero's kicker or an over pair. He was playing his own hand only Possibly a larger preflop raise would have folded him. I might be wiling to put in 1.5 more BBs, depending on what Hero's stats were, which were not given, but to call anything more with a Q8 OOP would be an automatic fold for me. My guess is that this V either is a compete beginner, has had a recent run of sucking out, or is playing so far beneath his bankroll that he really doesn't care whether he wins or loses: he's in it just for the action. You do run into that latter type at low stakes, a topic which Nathan hasn't addressed to my knowledge.

[@free-ridebear4176]

80% flop. 120-140% turn.

[@Данил-ь4н9б]

Можно по-русски пожалуйста

[@Serge541]

Вкратце: на микролимитах одни каличи, посмотрим на статы, этот может и на старшем короле уравнять ставку. Ставь на флопе много, не 50, как в раздаче, а 80, чтобы на торне поставить еще больше. На ривере есть место доборной ставке, она должна быть маленького размера, у него не обязательно дама, там может быть много карманных пар. Ах да, префлоп всегда смотрим размеры стеков, с коротким то выставимся в любой флоп, а с глубоким надо играть аккуратно.

[@marksimpson2321]

Oh. Ok stats suggest a very loose player. I play without a hud.

[@jamesburford6531]

I'm here as i'm looking to take up poker but hate the idea of players using a HUD (myself included). Any recommendations on sites to try? Thanks.

[@zuk987minge]

@@jamesburford6531 PartyPoker/GGpoker.

[@jamesburford6531]

@@zuk987minge Thanks. The site looks fun, especially for a newbie.

[@zuk987minge]

@@jamesburford6531 I don't hate huds as much, but I hate the fact that every player can buy mining (A collection of hands on you shared by other players). That's an unfair advantage.

[@edward6902]

Exploit the fishes...they have no idea that GTO even exists