This One Poker Mistake is Costing You BIGTIME

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Have you ever made this poker mistake? Also, check out my latest video on how much poker players can actually make these days: kzbin.info/www/bejne/moGndYRppZJppMk

[@zwrdl]

Being in the US I'm limited to Ignition and you can't use a HUD. That means I have no info that the villain is a whale. Looking at villain;'tbetting pattern alone, it seems plausible that villain 15 might have started with pocket 8s or 4s. He min-raised preflop to keep the pot small, maybe doing it as a preemptive move. It says he's probably not a reg, but we still don't know what type of rec player he is. When he hit on the flop he made a reasonable bet, a bit on the small size, but maybe to keep hero in. The turn gave him flush fear, so he fired out a small bet to see where he stood and the call encouraged him to think he might have been ahead. I think a raise here might have folded him. I would have done it, though, since representing the flush or betting for value if we truly thought we were ahead would be better than calling. If he came over the top himself, I might be a bit worried that my TPTK wasn't good, and even if he smooth called I'm still a bit concerned about the set. On the river, assuming he had the set, his bet was not out of line. Of course we know he didn't have the set, but wouldn't you allow for the possibility a bit more? For that reason I think a call is reasonable. I guess I'm asking if we want to gamble our entire effective stack in this position knowing that we win more often than lose over the long run.

[@fundiver198]

@ zwrdl when playing against bad players its important to not get to deep into this rabbit hole of trying to figure out, why they do, what they do. As Nathan say in the video, maybe they dont even always know themselfes. So reading his betting pattern as being a set is WAY over analysing the situation. As you can see from the hand it can also be a suited ace, which flopped bottom pair. Or a variety of other holdings. So you really have to revert back to looking mostly at your own holding. On the river Hero had top two pair, which is a very strong hand, so just raise and get it in. And yeah for sure we want to gamble our entire stack, if its +EV, since this is the only thing, we should ever care about in a cash game. Especially against fish we really want to gamble, because its often a race to get their stack, before someone else does.

[@utoober12]

Another good video, keep em coming. One suggestion: you might want to block out the result/winner in the top left of the pt4 replayer so we don’t know the result ahead of time.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks man, ya I keep screwing that up lol. Will try to remember for next time.

[@SimpleOne_000]

Totally agree with Nathan's analysis. On the river we're actually behind if he has some very specific combos (KdQd, AA, JJ, maybe KdTd or even 88). Compare it to 8 combos of AK/AQ (I definitely can imagine the villain playing AK/AQ like this), that will never fold the river, and you're already making money by raising the river. The more combos you add - the more profitable the raise is (and I think that there are tons of bad hands in our opponent's calling range).

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks for your feedback Vlad!

[@HomeStudioBasics]

I actually put him on A8 which is basically the same thing. That's exactly how fish play on flop turn and river with that specific hand. I'm jamming all day like Bob Marley and twice on Sunday! Turn was the dead giveaway. Weak hand at this level = weak bet. So when a big bet comes on the river, you better have a strong 2 pair hand or better to ship with.

[@fundiver198]

I would actually start to attack this even preflop with a 4-bet to around 2€ or 20 BB to isolate the fish and get that pot growing as fast as possible. In my experience this mini 3-bet line from a fish is sometimes AA, but it is heavily weighted towards random nonsense, we block AA with AJ, and we have the dead money from the SB in the pot as well. So I am like "thank you so much for reopening the betting for me, and I am going to take that opportunity". If the SB is a nit, that could be a turn-off though, but no info was given on him. As played I am ok with just calling the flop, but the turn needs to be raised. If the fish has a flush, and mini-bet then jam on us, we can hate live and fold. But we need to get more value from the times, he have something else. As played I am jamming the river. I think, if he had a flush, and bet the silly 50c on the turn to induce a raise (fish sometimes prefer this line instead of check-raising), then he would bomb the river to compensate for his missed value. There are two keys to beating the micros. The first is to find places, where you can make exploitable folds against unbalanced regs, who just almost always have it, when they take certain actions like 3-betting, 4-betting, check-raising or tripple barreling. And the other is to maximize value from fish. Therefore its a disaster to cooler a fish with 2 pair over 2 pair and leave this much money on the table.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Good point fundiver, there is definitely a 4Bet pre argument in this hand as well.

[@chacalXXX]

That's why I'm struggling to stay positive... I'd be shitting my pants thinking, "motherfucker got there with the flush" and would do very much like the hero here, i.e. to call the river. The mini bet on the turn, on the other hand, would've got punished for sure. Donkey bets like these are almost always weakness and I raise them 100% of the time.

[@synchronium24]

I would definitely have raised on the turn and river for value. I prefer hero's flop call, as even though villain has a 3bet of 10%, I think his continuance range will be much narrower to a raise on that flop. By calling we keep his range wide and only really have to fear a K or Q coming on the turn and river.

[@gustavodanielvrancich4936]

I agree almost with everything you say, i follow you everyday, but the little bet sometime they are making it with monsters, they are probably adjusting,. Cbeting big is working great for me in flop and turn, but the big value bet, kinda overbet, sometime i get to much folds. I m trying to play fewer hands since i m playing 33 15 2 wr 13bb i play mostly 1 or 2 tables. I think i get to win even playing so many hands due to play better then the average .i will try something like 25 20 3 see what happens.

[@Dariusknight]

I'm 50/50 on raising/calling on the flop, sure he could call a raise with worse but if he ships then we're in a bad spot seeing as he was the aggressor PF and might have been mini-raising to try and get his AA/KK paid off more. Turn and river though, you HAVE to raise, there's no way you should be calling .50 on the turn with TPGK and when you hit your 2p on the river, what exactly are you worried about? Sure he could have hit a set on the flop or turn or managed to have a flush (even though that's very unlikely seeing as you have the Ad) and almost min bet to try and get some money but that's why you raise the turn. I totally agree with Nathan, if he's got you by the river, then so be it. You have his range totally crushed by that point and it's like my general rule of thumb, if you can beat more than 50% of his range then you call, if you beat less than 50% then you fold, if you beat more than 75% of his range then you have to raise and get value from his worse hands. He's not folding to a ship on the river when he's got the worse 2p and if he does then that's poker.

[@Dark_Angel555]

it sounds interesting but how did you come with these percents ? 50/50/75 ?

[@Dariusknight]

It's just a general rule of thumb, part of being able to eventually move up into higher stakes is being able to put players on ranges of hands and familiarity will help you define those ranges better. I found generally that in the micros, in situations where you are in a hand with fish/bad regs, if your hand can beat more than 50% of what you anticipate what hands that they might play in that position in that way then if they bet, you can call and be reasonably certain that you're +EV even if it turns out that you either are beat or get outdrawn. Similarly, if your hand beats LESS than 50% of the hands that they might play and bet with in that position and in that way, then you can fold and generally you will be right that you were beat. Finally, if you're crushing their range like Steve here on the turn and river, then you can raise for value and be reasonably certain that you are massively ahead. I'm not a math person, so I can't say for sure that it all works out, but that's why it's a general rule of thumb for me and not a hard and fast rule. Certain marginal situations and crazy lines will skew those decisions for me and make me actually go against my rule of thumb if I feel someone is trying to make a move on me as well as mixing in bluffs here and there to set up bigger things down the line. I don't try to set or balance my own range of hands in the micros because doing so is pretty pointless as most players are for the most part recreational or bad regs who don't know read hands well and can see moves for what they are.

[@Noashakra]

You don't need to blance your hands against a fish. At NL 20, it starts to be important.

[@Dariusknight]

No, exactly, but you do want to keep it in mind for when you do move up. It's important to be able to adjust how you play against different players anyways which is why I have a general rule of thumb and not a hard and fast rule. Most decisions you're going to face at this level are going to be pretty standard anyways, which is why knowing how to read hands and being able to put people on ranges of hands is important. Especially when it comes to the marginal situations and weird lines that some players will take against you because those situations are where most of your variance comes from. Anyone can be super nitty and never bet until they have the nuts, but it's being +EV in those really marginal hands where you're either WA/WB and having to decide whether to make the hero call with a middle or bottom pair on a wet board where the villain could have had a combo draw and hit it is where you need to have your stuff together.

[@fundiver198]

Balance is not something black or white, which you either do or dont. Its important in situations, that come up often enough for people to easily notice it, if you are not using a balanced strategy. But its rarely important in situations, that come up 1 out of 1.000 hands or less. Also its not like, people are completely clueless at the lower stakes, and then suddenly at whatever stake everybody becomes extremely good. Fish are pretty much fish regardless of stakes. Regs on the other hand generally get better, as you move up. But its not like, a 5NL reg wont notice it, if your 3-bet percentage is 24. Even a fish will probably notice that, even without using a HUD, and then he will start fighting back at you, and rightfully so.

[@tobiaskarl4939]

So many times I saw an opponents flush at the end, so often ... I would fold at $2.4 raise, because of the 3 diamonds ... The small bet can be a trick to pretend weakness ...

[@valzedrickguerrero6209]

Great hand review as always, Nathan! I died at 4:05 lmao

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks Zedrick!

[@daniloherrera139]

lost my shit too lol

[@pokergeniusordonkey6517]

I can be fine with the just call on the flop. There may not be a good enough reason to go bonkers and reward this fish for the times he has QQ, KK, AA, or 88, or 44. Also, he might tell us everything we need to know on the turn... and he did... his ridiculous bet seemed to say he's less confident that he is ahead, so with the Ace of diamonds I think there probably should be a raise. And definitely a huge raise on the ace river, because the fish once again told us exactly what we need to know. His bigger bet on the river said "HA HA I know you don't have a flush and I hit my ace on the river, HA HA!" I think this fish would snap call a river raise with any Ace in his hand.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

All good points, thanks for your thoughts PG or D!

[@switters8679]

Seemingly donkey

[@luisgomes525]

i play like the hero the fish are bad but are tight on flop anything always had

[@denniss8644]

Great video Nathan. What do you think about 4-betting pre-flop? The BB is never folding (58/4 - God bless him!!!) and you might be able to block out the SB since AJo multiway might be a little rough. I want to be heads-up with BB as many times as possible, as quickly as possible.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks Dennis, there is definitely a case for 4Betting preflop that somebody else also pointed out in the comments. I didn't consider it when looking at this hand. Looking back, I can see an argument for it though. I think I still like flat more though and outplaying them postflop in position.

[@tolkien11]

Maximazing value is the key. Great video dude!

[@BlackRain79Poker]

So true for the micros. Thanks, glad you enjoyed!

[@liveslowlivesimple]

the mini bets aren't useless because they clearly serve a purpose in VILLAIN's mind, and that's valuable information to you. instead of passing it off as a meaningless fishy bet, ask WHY they're doing it. usually its one of two reasons and you'll see they polarize villain: 1) he's betting small because he's weak and it's serving as a blocker while simultaneously getting very weak hands to fold. in this case you should be re-raising, and they usually fold. 2) he's betting small because he wants to induce a call or even a re-raise. he doesn't want to bet big because in his mind it'll scare off weaker hands. if he has two pair or trips or better he would do this and hope top pair/two pair sticks around. when you start studying villains and seeing their patterns of when they use the "fish bet", you'll know how to react accordingly. hell, as a tightish reg even i use this move when playing against fish because i know they'll read it like i'm one of them. i've definitely induced re-raises from using less than half pot bets because they think i'm weak... then they call my shove and they're in for a rude awakening.

[@JICM25]

I categorize many players has trapers, which means when they have the nuts they´ll min bet to induce a raise and when they have AA pre they limp and then 3bet or shove. So many times when this type of player min bets I put them on a good hand and if I have a draw I only call.... Do you have experiences with this kind of trap players ? (there´s many who also min bet because they are scared or as a block bet)

[@EduardBobrik]

Do you think he could fold the A4 on the turn if we bet 70% pot, then no added value would have been gain on the river? Does it make sense? Raising the river make more sense after the villain contributing his bet if we don't mind the flush nor the set.

[@andthereisntone1]

A very helpful video. Cheers.

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks glad it helped!

[@andthereisntone1]

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the relative difficulty of 6 v 9 handed games (at the micros). Thanks.

[@fundiver198]

I dont think, they are massively different. Full ring games tend to attract more nits, and 6-max tend to attract more action junkies, but other than that its still cash game poker. For me its much more important to find the right table, than how many players are on it.

[@woodyallen3313]

THX,

[@OleguitoSwagbucks]

id call turn and ship river, doesnt look like a flush. he has a flush, i get off the tables for a day

[@ekw555]

the only thing I disagree with is that our Ad blocks a lot of villain's flsuhes. anyone who plays as bad as villain can show up with ANY two suited cards!!

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Hehe true

[@derektrott1073]

Very true, a lot of people seem to assume that villian will only have A high flush, which is most definitely not true at my games

[@lozgod]

I've tried the "I have the blocker I'm gonna bluff" move in micros. Never never never works. lol. I'll even write in the chat box something like "I know you don't have the A high flush because I do". Nothing works. They'll call with a 4 high flush. They can only see their cards and hand.

[@derektrott1073]

Woooohoooo this is my hand This was my thinking OTF just call because I rarely if ever raise with just a pair and he did 3bet pre so cold easily have me beat with QQ+ OTT when he bets small at these games I used to think this meant they always had it but have since learnt it can mean a wide variety of things, but I'm thinking how do I get called by worse? What if he raises? But I guess if I treat his small bet like a check then I would bet here so therefore I should raise OTR he bets normal amount now, now with more experience I think if he had the flush he would have bet over 1/2 pot as at my games virtually everyone bets over 1/2 with a flush or other big hand, but again if I raise will he call with worse or fold better?

[@fundiver198]

If this Villain was a competent player, I would say, that you played preflop, flop and turn perfectly fine. A competent player would likely have checked to us on the turn rather than betting a silly 1/8 of the pot. And then we should certainly check back, since we will mostly get called by overpairs, if we go for a bet. On the river however this is a clear raise spot even against a competent player, because what are you even losing to? You hold the A of diamonds in your hand, which knock out the majority of the normal suited 3-betting hands like AKs, AQs and A2-A5s. And equally important you also block his most realistic sets reducing AA and JJ to only 1 combo each. Sure to raise for value you also need to get called by worse, but I think, you can. The Villain will correctly assume, that you would have bet a flush on the turn. So if you wake up with a raise on the river, it look a little bit fishy, and a hand like AK will have a hard time getting away in my opinion.

[@FocusedAndMotivated100]

What does AF mean?

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Aggression Factor. Mathematical equation used by PokerTracker to determine how passive or aggressive someone is.

[@vlad1mir100here]

Thank you, Nathan, for such a great channel with so much FREE (why tf? :D) stuff and explanations. To the topic. I love heavily value-betting FFFF-I-S-H postflop. I donk, I raise them, I check+raise them right into their faces so they feel offended and freaking call me or even push their stacks into my face. With different donk/bet/raise-sizes. But either they don't have balls to continue clashing with me (like they should tend to like you say), either they banally don't have "good" hands to call me. Time after time. At NL2. Perhaps they tend to get more cautious and smarter?

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Thanks Vladimir glad I could help! :)

[@vlad1mir100here]

But you still haven't answered if they tend to learn a lot faster than it is generally stated.

[@benpike323]

Def worth the 2% chance he has a flush here to ship the river

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Yup agreed.

[@DanielSong39]

This must be player dependent because you usually get crushed. The min bet screams flush.

[@ditaalin76]

Hero was just scared, he have no idea about villain range

[@cata9223]

What is the mistake needs to be more clear? are you saying get value because everyone is trying to do that.. but I don't see a mistake all decisions should depend on the table your sitting at.

[@VaultTecc]

wut?

[@Dark_Angel555]

the funny thing is that if we would have raised the turn in this particular spot he would have folded A4s because he had only bottom pair with 4 on the turn

[@fundiver198]

Fish can get incredibly sticky. I would not rule out, that he could have called. Also of course we have to play our hand against his entire range and all possible runouts. The river could have been a 4 as well, and in that case we would not mind to have gotten rid of him on the turn :-)

[@BlackRain79Poker]

Sure but results orientated :P