Chris Miller: Chip War and the Battle Between the US and China

[@wohola]

Great interview! So informative and captive! Thanks!

[@joshuaeko]

Very good fundamental questions 👍🙏

[@adamesd3699]

I think the author might have discounted an important point. Yes, China’s previous efforts to create an advanced domestic chip industry had been only partly successful. But that’s because they always had the alternative of being able to import the advanced chips they needed. Now that option is not available to them anymore. Necessity is the mother of invention. Previously, they threw a lot of money at the problem and some of it got wasted, some of it got stolen, etc. From what I’m seeing, the Chinese feel like they are being seriously attacked. The commitment now seems a lot more serious.

[@johnvannewhouse]

Yeah, he answers this exact question at 34:40.....

[@AmericaVoice]

You are absolutely scary correct!

[@lavs8696]

necessity is NOT the mother of invention, competition is. US markets are far more robust in this aspect, although that may change if China continues to liberalize its' economy.

[@clarkdavis5333]

Excellent piece! Thank you.

[@pagarb]

A really big issue with the transfer of electronics manufacturing to Asia was the lower cost, greater productivity and better quality of the assembly work done by women, especially in Taiwan, who back then were in a class of their own and better than any electronics assembly workers anywhere

[@jeffskent]

I have to agree with you about the quality of assembly workers as I was one and a Supervisor for 5 years with two different companies and almost all production moved from the USA to Aisa and is likely to mostly remain there.

[@technologyandsociety21C]

Great interview!

[@alfong8279]

This is certainly an above average interview by a skillful interviewer and an articulate author. Having said that, I must point out that Mr. Miller was ultimately handicapped by his lacking of a good scientific research background and his blindness to the hefty advances of the Chinese scientists have made in the last 10 years or so. The fact is that the Chinese have recently become very close to perfecting a way to manufacturing the type of high quality chips that until now only Taiwan TSMC can produce, with local Chinese machines that are produced in mainland China without depending on the Dutch ASML machines. So, maybe the Chinese engineers just got some lucky breaks recently and are able to overcome the very restricting US trade policy for at least a short while but they still may not have won the war completely yet.

[@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh]

Someone posted : if it’s not made by god , it can be made by man.

[@magnaviator]

If you can't win, cheat.

[@cbarcus]

At about six minutes in, Ferguson makes a quip about Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan back in August, suggesting that showing Congressional support for the country is somehow encouraging China’s aggression. This seems quite off the mark as military support for Taiwan should conversely work to deter such aggression. Is that not our policy?

[@magnaviator]

No the policy is that Taiwan is part of China but that reunification should be peaceful.

[@nicolasayastuy]

Loved the interview, hated the audio, somehow for people with Misophonia the sound of Chris's saliva makes it really difficult to digest, nod to the audio engineer to get a filter for it. Sorry for that, had to point it out. It's incredible what the Dutch are achieving when it comes to chips and technology in general. The fact that the Netherlands and Japan are not letting the Chinese get into their technology is what is keeping China to take over the world.

[@efanshel]

I believe the commonwealth club is roughly 98 years old. Amazing.....

[@Erik-gg2vb]

Great talk, I agree with the conversation and future related here.

[@jeanlicatasacco6067]

Very much interested in the topic of Chris Miller s book, then the comment from the individual who is asking Mr Miller questions, made a comment about Nancy Pelosis visit to Taiwan being a problem for us. Does he think we should not continue to have our representatives work with Taiwan? Does he need to shade the Speaker for doing her job and is he a fan of China's goal of taking over Taiwan? This is the first time I have commented and had to point out tha misogyny of the intervviewer!

[@shaunmcisaac782]

He might as well have told her to get bak in the kitchen

[@tammyburke9453]

That comment concerned me too! T.y.

[@mikemccarthy1638]

Yes, particularly as the truth comes out about her critical contribution to saving our Republic on Jan. 6. Some of the Republican cowards are on tape in the room that day.

[@justgivemethetruth]

I'm not certain that the Pelosi thing was misogyny, but the idea that we should kow-tow to every Chinese whim at the very least sets a very bad precedent. Thinking about this for me, I came to the conclusion that it was a good idea. The same folks who call out America as imperialist for its many interferences in other countries' affairs seem to not say a word about China and Taiwan, or China and Tibet, etc.

[@justgivemethetruth]

@@shaunmcisaac782 Is that back or bake? That's a little over the top, don't you think?

[@ADHD55]

good discussion

[@tellyfrias1008]

Excellent video! I was fascinated reading both Niall Ferguson and his books "The ascent of Money" and "The West and the rest" and Chris Miller " Chip wars". Great compilation of knowledge.

[@joem0088]

Latest landmark SMIC delivery 7nm Kirin9000S for Huawei. Chip Act is looking like the Cheap Act.

[@vurujak]

good doc

[@faizalzaidin]

US is so focusing on this ‘war’ but neglected their people wellbeing and horrible infrastructures state. This war will suffered Americans the most although their country is the wealthiest, but the distribution of wealth is vast unfairly within their people.

[@kreuzer115]

Excellent analyzed topic by Chris Miller. China is about 5 years behind Taiwan but it's the same with US-semiconductor industrie. About 20 or 25 years ago, I remember, that I watched a documentary about the chinese automotive industry. They had a very old US-car and they tried to re-engineer this car, to found their own automotive industrie. They was not successful and they had no chance to manufacture any pice of metal that worked as expected . But what happened then? The western world transfered in the name of the "holy" globalization all the know how to China and we lost a lot of jobs, know-how and prosperity. The politicians, many NGO's and the managers are responsible for this. The problem is that this guys have only $-signs in theyr eyes, they dont take care about us.

[@sirus312]

What about Intel securing all machines from ASML, they bought up the whole lot. That will certainly set back China or anyone else. Intel might have been given fire from the gods

[@YaHighness89]

Amazing Video

[@AmericaVoice]

China is extremely great at re-engineering technology which is scary and I am extremely grateful that the USA is so great at coming up with stuff. If I was twainese I am not sure I would move everything here in the US. It would be because it keeps the US willing to fight for it by keeping there country be the leading technology manufacturer!

[@nickkacures2304]

Awesome information and interview thanks. Asymmetric warfare would foretell a complete obliteration of chip making facilities and any facility that aides in the manufacturing of high end consumer and military technology in Taiwan if the Chinese invade

[@sheavelte2917]

There is no such thing call “invitation ”. People, please don't forget Taiwan is one of the provinces of CHINA. This is documented in United Nation.

[@nickkacures2304]

@@sheavelte2917 OK thanks for that history lesson I think the people on that island have a different opinion and would rather have independence no matter what a UN commission says but yes historically the geopolitical lines we draw are arbitrary and hopefully we can evolve as a species to favor cooperation instead of embittered conflict

[@sheavelte2917]

@Nick Kacures Then the Taiwanese can vote to taixic or edit their constitution. They are coword. The only thing they like to do is lip service

[@im.meer-asif]

Great Analysis. Putting his book in my list now.

[@rorytribbet6424]

I absolutely love Chris! His work has taught me so much. I’m just not sure he is spot on regarding a dwindling U.S. force in the Asia Pacific region. I know the gap has definitely shrunk however… Our presence their has grown, not diminished over the last 5 years. And our navy is still much larger than chinas in terms of displacement, China fields an obscene amount of small vessels that aren’t much more than patrol boats with guns, which allows them to call themselves the largest navy in the world by numbers, but would do little in a head to head fight between the US navy and its partners. Chinas Air Force is also even farther behind than their high end chip design and manufacturing. This is mainly due to a lack of high quality engine designs, which they are often trying to steal from US firms. Yes China is closing the gap but the gap is frankly still very large and these sanctions along with chinas now shrinking population are major factors in slowing that trend down.

[@dabYaching]

At 11:04 did he say "feted" across the country or "fettered" across the country. There seems to me a mistake in the subtitles, no?

[@cheponis]

Just be aware: Niall Ferguson is from the Hoover Institution, a far-far-right 'think tank' (they try to force government policy to the far, far right). For a talk about 'chips' this sure was a normalization of "China: Bad!" rhetoric, which is simplistic at best, and jingoistic at worst. I hope future Commonwealth Club interviews can choose moderators who are more, ahhhh, moderate.

[@James-tk7zg]

Dude, you are a good man!

[@claytontom7204]

THIS WAS ONE OF THE MOST HELPFUL INTERVIEWS I HAVE FOUND ON KZbin WHAT AND WHY THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF WHO CONTROLS THE MICROCHIP INUDSTY. OBVIOUSLY TSMC IS THE ONE AND APPLE AND THE ENTIRE WORLD IS VULNERABLE IF CHINA STARTS SOMETHING WITH TAIWAN. THANK YOU

[@navneetsmaini]

@34:45 😲😲 @51:08

[@sirus312]

You weren’t kidding. Imagine a trillion dollar industry grind to zero. I’d imagine Intel will probably 50x on that scenario as they are the only one that could restart it.

[@tammyburke9453]

I need a "semi-conductor" to listen at the speed he speaks! Like Ben Shapiro, just too fast. Interviewer is better so i cant just slow it all down! Aaarrrgghhh, loved this content, just too fast to listen to for me.

[@mikemccarthy1638]

Good story about Soviet copying early after V-J Day - Concurrent w/ the $2-Bn Manhattan Project, the devt & production of the B-29, the intended vehicle for delivery of the A-bomb, cost $3-Bn. Boeing built many hundreds of them by war’s end. An example is the 300+ B-29s involved in the fire-bombing of Tokyo, the destruction & death toll on a level of the A-bombs. When you think of “generations” of fighter aircraft, if the B-17 was 2nd-Gen, the B-29 leapt to 5th-Gen, having more in common with the Dash-80 that became the 707, rather than the B-17 or anything the Soviets had. For a reason I’ve forgotten, three B-29s were left on Soviet airfields after Japan’s surrender. The Soviets spent three years reverse-engineering the plane. As said in the video, copy-catting of rapidly-advancing technology is fatally-flawed. While they were busy copying & learning how to build 1943-43 tech, Boeing, on military contracts, designed & perfected the B-47 & B-52 jet-powered bombers (the precursors to Boeing 707), and in their spare time, the 6-propeller, 4-jet B-36, the largest plane in the world during its service life. The Pentagon plans to keep the B-52 in service past 2040, ~90 years in total. The Soviet ‘B-29s’ were taken out of combat service in less than 10 years. The Dash 80 & the Enola Gay B-29 are on display, side-by-side at the Air & Space Museum’s Dulles Airport facility. My Dad was a bombardier w/ 50 B-17 combat missions over Germany & Central Europe based in No. Africa (the most dangerous military job in WW II), and 50 B-29 combat missions over No. Korea, flying out of Okinawa (probably the most dangerous contributor to the utter destruction of the mostly poor peasants & villagers in N. Korea, along w/ 85% of the built infrastructure). He was quietly proud of his WW II service, but died flying low shortly after the Armistice suspending the Korean War, and was saved thereby from having to confront the terror & destruction wrought on the hundreds of thousands of civilians by explosives & napalm.

[@anwiycti1585]

How come there is no mentioning about the origin links with, project blue book? : D

[@robertprawendowski2850]

⭐

[@rafishaikh3598]

CHINA, from Microchips & TECHNOLOGY & TOYS from CHINA. RELIABLE &cheap & AFFORDABLE….LOVE 🇨🇳 CHINA,,, RAFI MAINE USA

[@johnnyblue1101]

Very bright fellow who articulates in great detail what matters today technologically in geopolitical terms - an important concern for the world. However, the comment regarding the rise of the supposed Chinese military, it’s building of ships and missies, etc. is misleading. Not only is the US light years ahead in terms of semiconductor chip superiority but, importantly, the US Navy has about 11 real deal super carriers afloat and China has a single “junk” carrier. They don’t even possess a “blue water” navy. Japan does. The rest of the world combined doesn’t stack up much better. Meanwhile, the US is building at least 3 more “Ford Class” super carriers. In the circumstances, there is NO threat of impacting the current military dominance of US sea and air power. The rest of the world combined is not even close in terms of controlling the seven seas. Politically, of course, anything is possible. Still,it’s amazing at this point that otherwise intelligent people would even open their mouths regarding any challenge to US military superiority. None exists.

[@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh]

9 months later , this post did not age well.

[@aleksbakman7562]

Intel like all other American corporations has no mechanism for the daring innovation. This fact is well proven by the existence of only one Dutch company that develops and manufactures the means of semiconductor manufacturing, ASM. Intel and all other American corporations have to develop a habit and procedure for daring new approaches if we don't want to become a province of China. At least they need better educated, smarter and much more humble managers and administrators.

[@laujack24]

u know all the corporation r run by accountant from 40 years of globalization, only prioritize profitability over anything else something they need to change. but u r wrong about semi conductor manufacturing. 7 out of the top 10 company providing the machinery to make them r from US. u just happened to be ill informed by media, all 3 of the world leading EDA aka high end chip design software companies r home to silicon valley. even ASML machine require us company tech know how with parts from an cali base company and the very reason why they cant even export it to china with out us approval. I think u just have to dig deeper from the surface instead of listening to some random media spreading u 50% of the truth and not looking at the full picture. reason why I love this book, it really open my eye to a lot of the thing I use to think differently.

[@justgivemethetruth]

Good interview. Lots of information here. I do wish Mr. Ferguson would stop continually trying to be be right ... "am I right"? It sounds like he is always trying to one-up the guest.

[@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh]

Huawei mate 60 pro : am I a joke to you ?

[@victoriameyers5870]

I love this guy's book! He addressed what is possibly the most important topic of our time! God forbid China get ahead in the Chip wars and take over TSMC! We'd all be slaves to Chinese AI!

[@FionaGillen]

We're already slaves to AI - wherever it comes from - don't think American or Japanese or whoefers AI is benign - it jolly well isn't! It's mroe important which sector controls the AI at the moment it's business where us hoi polloi see AI - not benign at all

[@georgelimlosuy]

Slaves of China? China has no history of enslaving other races,only AMERICA had.

[@cthao1969]

When evil clashes there is nothing we can do about it. We are all going to suffer.

[@James-tk7zg]

How?

[@johnross779]

Hi should have kept the Ukraine, Russia comments to himself . 😅😅😅

[@AffordablePC1]

x86 coming to an end in terms of fees in the next few years, ...

[@lisakong8651]

WOW...even a 'respectable' american scholar can sound so hawkish - maintaining us military might at all cost. no wonder wellbeing of ordinary americans (which is in great wanting) simply take a back seat

[@thomasriedel7583]

Why could the Soviets shoot people into space? Because of German expertise.

[@maazahmedpoke]

You mean Like in America? And yet the Soviet still beat the Americans to the punch

[@ABCXYZ-jk8me]

Recession, Beginning of Depression! Rapture, Born-again Celebration !! Riders, Book of Revelation!!!

[@kristinchong629]

I honestly don't get the chip war the story. Like the other person doing the new world biotech hacking homo deus story is a Jewish person and this guy is a historian in Russia, like how does this become a story about chip war story in Taiwan. Like I know I don't know about manufacturing but like if its geopolitics like a Jewish person and a historian on Russia, what are components to make that jump to be like chips are made in Taiwan. Like what does price have to do about something as important as democracy and there's a whole thing about funding a whole war to finding terrorist in mole holes in deserts for democracy and like nothing about destroying techno authoritarian ism. So like its not money, too many ideological gaps geopolitical, I think. Like did he like run this by like a group of 2nd graders cause its going to affect them. And like the other thing is if it was made in america maybe we would be on the 14th iPhone. Like chips is not definitive and permenant, like why isn't a chip center in a town. Like smartphones aren't that great most people look at it for memes when we really just need to look at the weather. Like damn guys why did you guys let merchants of authoritarian into liberal spaces.

[@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh]

Guy has no idea what coming . Lol

[@James-tk7zg]

What do you mean?

[@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh]

@@James-tk7zg Chinese are not gonna sit on their hands and do nothing . There may be an avalanche of high tech chips from low level to high levels coming our way .

[@James-tk7zg]

@@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh you think they are capable?

[@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh]

@@James-tk7zg will it be extremely difficult , yeah. But not impossible.

[@James-tk7zg]

@@ScoobieDoo-zy1rh this will only allow for a multipolar society to exist. I'm sure if china figures it out they'll be able to use it for its intrest,, now how long do you think it will take?

[@qake2021]

😝😝😝bad info🤣🤣🤣 from NON experts🥳🐷🤡🐒🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🍌🤞

[@James-tk7zg]

What do you mean?

[@matubalfaisal2600]

god bless china

[@esduitarielmoralez6332]

According to Simon Wiezenthal 's book "Nazi Hunter" it were the Ukrainians that were so cruel 2nd to the nazis.

[@frizerbee]

Didn't the US settle the Cold War when they got the Saudis to lower the oil price? I believe that is what got the US ahead since the USSR got most of its revenue than from the commercialization of that particular commodity. Today, the Saudis are siding with the East and I think everything points to a downturn in the US dictatorial leadership.

[@shaunmcisaac782]

Yes. USSR didn't have a lot else. "A nuclear armed gas station." As for the current Saudi leadership, MBS is attempting to put his thumb on the scale of the midterms. He should watch that his thumb is not suddenly caught in heavy machinery...

[@bighands69]

That is pure nonsense.

[@mikemccarthy1638]

Not “dictatorial”, imperial, from 1763-64 to the present. “Neocon” means neo-colonial. Our empire is divided into three parts - 1. “manifest destiny” settler colonialism (laced w/ genocide & aggression v. Mexico); 2. off-shore land & resource-taking via standard colonial practices of European-style empires (the Navy’s 1854 violent forced ‘opening’ of feudal Japan; Hawaii; P.R., Cuba, Central American banana republics; Philippines, etc. up to WW II; our participation in the humiliation of China w/ the other imperial powers, etc.), and 3. our post-war geo-political mercantilism, militarism & management of the post-war world economic & political order. Both good & bad things were done, many you have to dig deeply to know - but do not deny that we’ve been an empire over our whole existence. The last example: our vast global surveillance system fully informed Pres. Biden months in advance that Putin had decide to invade w/ overwhelming documentation, but the published evidence to date is that all we did was notify Ukraine, EU & Nato, presumably w/ evidence, of Russia’s plans. W/ our global reach, massive weapons stockpiles, incredible airlift & logistics capabilities, our failure to prevent the invasion leaves serious questions about motives - wouldn’t be the first time a proxy-war was waged for our benefit, rather than the host country.