David Rosenberg: Don't Believe The Hype! This Economy Is A Dead Man Walking

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKETS? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at www.wealthion.com
According to today's headlines, it's looking increasingly likely that the economy may dodge a recession. The calls for a "soft landing" are turning into ones of "no landing at all"
The same headlines tell us the markets are in great shape and will be powered higher from here by a new AI-driven profitability boom.
But according to today's guest, highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research, the headlines are selling a false narrative.
By his measure, the recession is already arriving, deflation not inflation is the bigger threat & the current market AI frenzy is a classic stock mania that will end the way all bubbles do.
Follow David at rosenbergresearch.com/
Or on Twitter @econguyrosie
TIMSTAMPS
0:00 Adam’s Intro
1:48 David’s current assessment of the global economy
7:24 What about service sector Inflation?
12:12 Jobs data on non farm payrolls.
14:38 What’s going on with the workweek?
19:36 The fed stopped tightening in 2006.
25:51 The fed’s credibility under attack.
28:31 Job openings vs. unemployment.
34:37 The recession may already be starting.
39:58 Where's the recession in the consumer?
42:27 What’s telling you about the economy?
48:31 What’s driving the growth of the Japanese market?
54:33 Where should you be long in Japan?
________________
At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world’s top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance.
We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you.
There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth.
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: www.wealthion.com/
Subscribe to our KZbin channel / @wealthion
Follow Adam on Twitter / menlobear
Follow us on Facebook / wealthion-109680281218040
#recessionstockmarket #inflationrecession #stockmarketcrash
____________________________________
IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

[@dw566]

I'm in Mr. Rosenberg's camp. A very compelling data based view of current and future markets. Great guest and great interview Adam!

[@HaveANiceDay108]

One of only a few who is willing to call out the hubris and idiocy of the Fed. To be married to the most lagging of all indicators,the CPI, while ignoring leading indicators, has got to be the epitome of hubris and stupidity.

[@udarpavarota396]

I tend to agree.

[@AikiBudo22]

@@HaveANiceDay108 Hubris, yes. Stupidity, no. They're just flat-out lying to us and most will believe it.

[@jamesdillworth6293]

​@@HaveANiceDay108by u CT:

[@SwissMovement]

Oh man. I love this guy. What a sharp intelligent well spoken gentleman. Please bring him back again. Well done both of you.

[@delmonicofarquhar9893]

I've followed Rosenberg for a long time and consider him the single most credible economist. Ignore his views at your own peril.

[@derekseifert7]

41:30 - "consumer transitioning towards frugality." David, I've been transitioned towards frugality since late 2007. Graduated university in 2009. When will I ever see an economy where I can throw caution to the wind and enjoy myself? Probably never.

[@JoeBlow-nh7mp]

One of my friends,/coworkers, would pretty much buy what ever he wanted. He used to buy the best PC's and the newest Iphone's, brand new cars. I used to ask him, aren't you worried about your credit and how much money you spend? he replied to me... "there's nothing a good bankruptcy won't fix". lol, some people don't give a shit.

[@derekseifert7]

@@JoeBlow-nh7mp - yeah, "you can't take it with you" is a mindset that has been instilled in this country for 2-3 generations now to support the consumer economy. It's why we no longer have prudent saver families joining the ranks of the "old money." They leave nothing to their kids because they spent it all, or worse, became a burden late in life further eroding family prosperity. There's a special place in hell for these selfish people.

[@theonlyconstantischange123]

​@@JoeBlow-nh7mpthis is definitely the common mindset. Saving with controlled spending isn't the baseline behavior. The baseline behavior is to fill up a monthly budget of financed goods. Why live any other way? What, are u gonna wait forever to live? (Sarcasm)

[@kzen848]

Just wait until people are given free homes in the next crash.

[@88peyote]

Adam I love the background. You should record with it more often! Rosenberg always rocks! Thanks

[@giantessmaria]

rents in my area are up almost 40% in 3 years! 4 bedroom 2 bath, that rented for $3500 is now $4,800! inflation may not be growing as fast, but the damage has been done and that won't change. The new normal will work its way through the population and put us in a homelessness crisis like the 1930's!

[@petersheenan4482]

It's sad to say, but there are a lot of "new" homeless cropping up in my nice neighborhood. (and they aren't proud any more).

[@insomniactravels6185]

Rosie is another gem that ensures this channel stays "relevant". Keep up the good (and hard) work, Adam!

[@wongsongs3861]

Mr. Rosenberg is probably THE most interesting and informative (in my opinion and according to my own fiscal considerations) guest you have ever had on recently! The Fed needs to use real, aggregate (not cherry picked categories) and LEADING DATA to make their decisions.

[@scotthodor4292]

Much respect to David to believing in his process and being willing to confidently go against the grain.

[@kyle-ri5mz]

remember the way they calculate CPI changed entering 2023.. so all the CPI numbers do not correlate to anything from before.

[@onthemoney8356]

Wallstreet knows people are waiting. Which means Wallstreet will make people wait until they realize they shouldn't have at all. Welcome to Wallstreet!

[@tjvon968]

Living down here in the real economy I can tell you I’m not seeing much disinflation. Insurance, taxes, general food costs are still up on my side.

[@petersheenan4482]

He can say what he wants, but for me my rent, gas, food, medical, and entertainment costs have skyrocketed these last two years.

[@scottmoering9810]

agreed! hes delusional

[@brianoleson9224]

@@scottmoering9810 hes lying about inflation right now its at-least 9% it could be 11% and at its peak it was a few percent higher then the 1970s on paper you wont find that cause the goverment changed how its measured simply because we are more evil today then the grove y 1970s go figure. i try to give the benifit of the doubt on these interviews but its hard to stomach the guy when you know off camera he is concerned . some of the oldest Americans today that were born in the 1930s havent seen an environment like we have had the last few years

[@scottmoering9810]

@brianoleson9224 exactly Brian!!

[@SunofYork]

At least you aren't living in a Fascist, White Supremacist, christian nationalism fog, and in a county with it's own Presidential protection force with unlimited powers.... (SchutzStaffel)..... Watch this space

[@Ron-py7rt]

I like a guy who puts a little Tobasco in his morning eggs. When you know the economy, you know.

[@tomdonovan4842]

Insightful interview well done

[@web3tel]

David is brilliant and entertaining . Thank you for such a wonderful guest and education.

[@RetiredSignDude]

Rosenberg is always a good listen

[@miguelleiva897]

Really enjoyed that interview.

[@ke9406]

Finally! David Rosenberg! Wealthion keeps getting better and better

[@jonathanlee5185]

If there's a US recession -- and the UK and Germany are pretty much in one already -- won't the global downturn have a negative impact on Japanese investments too?

[@ivancho5854]

Yes, absolutely. The current optimistic view of Japan will nosedive if the US markets crash. Japan is an export economy. If no one is buying because of global downturn then what direction must Japanese equities go? Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride. Good luck. 👍

[@howardglenmartinez4473]

I had to comment again on Mr. Rosenburg's appearance on your show. I'm going to nickname him, The Hype Terminator. Let me tell you something, where I live, I see many "Dead Man" businesses throughout the city. You can tell they are dead because they have no customers. And to add to all this, we have thousands living on the streets, thousands drowning their sorrows with drugs in their homes, and those who are in their right mind scared shitless. Now is the time to stock and arm and prepare for the Great Depression Part II.

[@TradeSpeakeasy]

This background is MUCH nicer!

[@padraigdevitt8755]

Enjoyed that Adam thanks 🙏

[@marksmith351]

Wow! Great interview!!

[@AhLaDad90]

Thank you for having such smart guess on your show.👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾

[@LPJCP]

Rosenberg suggests Greenspan should be considered in the same light as Volker; utter nonsense! The former introduced the soft money platform to supplant the hard money of the latter which has led us to the mess we're in now.

[@bretgreen5314]

Great; thank you Adam and David

[@tomcoughlan2532]

Very good interview. Interesting take on Japan .

[@carrieschumacher4]

Thank you David! I am a huge fan!

[@external9544]

This is your best guest. Get him back on.

[@FerallHog]

This gentleman is Solid! He netted it out clearly and confidently. Excellent interview.

[@markwalmsley5741]

Great interview

[@Mark-el8sb]

Love this guest!

[@mercinak655]

wow, great guest and very articulate, very common sense content. Thanks Adam

[@heidihelo5773]

I so appreciate the time it must take you to plan your podcast. It marvelous!! Love the guests you have on. Knowledge is power.😊

[@scottmoering9810]

Rents are still very HIGH. real time rent may be down just a tad but still up almost 100% since covid. the fed is right

[@petersheenan4482]

A lot of things have gone way up. He ignores this fact.

[@robertrotman7730]

Rosenberg's narrative: 2020 on inflation we are still in recession 2021 no inflation as we will be in recession in 6 mos 2022 no inflation because Fed will solve it 2023 no inflation because a "depression" is coming (sarcasm here but you get my drift!

[@Jay-xr3sb]

Yep, he's been wrong for sometime

[@sewnsew6770]

So many awesome guests

[@Sola_Scriptura_1.618]

I have never known an economist to be so wrong, so many times on so many fronts, than David Rosenberg. David makes Paul Krugman look good!

[@ddprepper5227]

Excellent report

[@mullerk2]

Excellent guest.

[@celestialfix]

Spot on analysis.

[@mackakiwinz4353]

Wow certainly some great points thank you guys fantastic discussion based from genuine knowledge and experience. Your library is impressive in your back up studio Adam no wonder you are so smart and humble.

[@donjohnson6036]

Everyone must get back in the pool before the sharks join the party.

[@calvinhancock7844]

The audio sounds better in your library

[@robertratz5305]

What a great guest. Thank you for bringing him on.

[@John577]

I'm a cross border trucker, Canada and USA. I can tell you that 100%, we are DEFINITELY in a recession. We have been since November of 2022.

[@torefredriksen7962]

this was outstanding

[@robertmaxgarrison5281]

David Rosenberg is the man. Great interview.

[@Aries61]

I like the bookcase background!!!

[@hugh233]

Rents and OERs , numbers will remain elevated and sticky, for several YEARS. Home value/ price increase, higher property tax, ins., Improvement costs,ect. Not a declining trend.

[@tiffsaver]

Why do all of these "financial experts" continue claim that we "may be going" into a recession when in fact we've BEEN in a recession since 2022, unless these people actually believe the overt fabrications by Grandma Yellen and the Fed?? The rate of inflation will only worsen and continue to rise to record levels, just as it has in every nation on earth, from Europe, to South America, and certainly the United States, unless you don't eat, drive a car, or thinking of buying a house. The only question remaining is, *which bubble will burst first?*

[@neil5872]

Consensus in summer '08 may be relevant, interesting point from DR and the point about troubles and cutting in '01 before 9/11 is also a good one.

[@richardpeterson6911]

An extremely insightful and somewhat unique analysis of economic/financial conditions. Lots of valuable information, focusing on what are correct economic indicators--as opposed to what data the Fed and many investors are utilizing.

[@JustJeffwilldo]

Thanks for the dose of reality and sharing your wisdom.

[@mattanderson6672]

Awesome interview! Thanks for having David on Thanks guys!

[@chrisbytwerk3712]

What's a good and trustworthy site for PPI measures?

[@stevejenisch9153]

Rosie doesn’t give an interview, he gives a lecture. Always enjoyable.

[@dankurth4232]

@Steve Jenisch A lecture? Rosenberg is like a rhetorical steamroller on steroids and one who knows what he is talking about

[@pja7]

But what about the long term damage to the economy, the poor in society and those in fixed incomes of taking 7 - 10 years to get inflation fully under control?

[@liveslowsailfastonlanier1374]

Listening to the talk about residential rents coming down, I am struggling with the numbers. Given the fact that investors have to cover amortization and interest on financing, how can rents go down? Cost to build residential units may have flattened out but the financing cost are just beginning to come up to current refinancing rates. Just by the numbers to amortize initial building cost in 25 years makes the Niall cost 4% of building cost. This is very much outpaces by interest rates that now may be between 5% and 10% of loan value, depending on who is borrowing.

[@kpn5000]

David Rosenberg, one of the top guests of all time. Thanks for having him back, Adam! Please invite him back again soon. Cheers

[@stiffdrinkfinance1981]

Mr Taggart, with all these books behind you, you look like economics professor

[@DBEdwards]

Adam keep the new background. It flatters you.

[@Oudeis000]

This is such a frustrating yet fascinating time; there is such a divergence of opinion among experts who are all bright, armed with data, and articulate in their arguments. I am waiting with bated breath to see which camp ends up being right by year's end. I don't have much invested, so my interest is purely academic. I can't imagine how nerve racking it is to commit to a position with actual money.

[@mohamedAli-kj6fb]

Or wait with cash while the markets point to the moon 😮‍💨

[@thomasmazzola4760]

@@mohamedAli-kj6fb investors who don’t see this bubble and how bad it will burst will be wiped out

[@MattMatusiak]

There's still a mid day line of cars at the Starbucks Drive Thru.

[@robwalker1580]

The business I’m in uses high skilled field labor. Six mos ago we couldn’t hardly find a contractor available to handle overflow. Last two weeks I’m getting two calls a day looking for work by contractors. Things have changed…

[@migmoreno3211]

David, that was a tour de force.

[@ReversGames]

The backup studio looks like the den. 😁

[@MDHardy]

Excellent discussion Adam. 12 month inflation lower? Does he not understand what $4T of new printing in two years will do to inflation?

[@dope1725]

@live chat. Good team work 🤣☺️🙋

[@JJS73]

One of the or maybe the only channel where we hear the truth. Facts matter. Trying to avoid the main stream financial channels now because they avoid the facts. Thanks, Adam.

[@genericdude6551]

This is like the fable about the boy who cried wolf. Economists predicting a deep recession or depression while nothing happens for years. Then it happens. The only thing one can do is prepare for the worse but not be freaked out over this. Same thing about gold and silver, predictions of triple digit silver for about a decade now and yet it hasn't happened.

[@brandonsmith6965]

lovin' this new version of ranty rosenberg

[@bravim5981]

New harbor guys suggested AUMN when it was 30 cents. Today at 11 cents

[@TheRustyLM]

Yep. Hours worked are declining at my shop. No OT for the last 4 mos.

[@RutherfordGeorge]

Great session Adam - Jam packed with well substantiated analysis and colourful presentation. Some interviews you just need to let go and 44:52 44:53 go with the flow. This interviewee is not one who is going to be managed. Next time tell him in the intro what you want in the broadest terms and let him run. Really enjoy your show and appreciate the high quality of the people you get on the show. Now I’ m going to watch this session again to pick up some of what I missed because the pearls were dropping so fast! Once again a big thankyou for your great show.

[@SELKCOMM]

It’s a sad day when a smart man stating the obvious is viewed as a heretic

[@ivancho5854]

Nah. It's the norm. The majority of people are idiots. I'm not allowed to say that am I? I don't care. I'm getting old, so I can tell the truth.🤣

[@BatmanBoss]

Wealthion ❤

[@fractalart8352]

Very valuable indeed! Rarely does a 1 hour podcast fly by as quickly

[@ptupy]

Switching to cheaper products is a good idea. Used to buy only premium brands before but now shifted to store brands for some products (toilet paper, trash bags, etc.), and they are of pretty much the same quality. Saving tons of money

[@Jordanehart]

Great commentary.

[@sonialola4329]

Absolutely great interview. Thank you.

[@user-kq3jd8wk2w]

Not sure about hotels reducing rates as stated. We just in North Platte Nebraska, middle of nowhere and they still wanted $175 for a king room...and other motels were well over $100/night....in Nebraska!!

[@flakieflake9616]

Adam please get Michael A Gayed to talk especially about the significance of the collapse of Lumber futures - a pointer on the economy often overlooked and not understood

[@easterntechartists]

Barking in the wind. A broken clock is always eventually right. Is that right ? But he is making progress. He finally mentioned Zimbabwe which is a high probability possibility

[@pendaranroberts4350]

A broken clock...

[@tonylochner4730]

Yes sometimes all day waiting for paint to dry!!! Everyday lately!!!

[@526Nitin]

Very very interesting tidbits Sir 👏😎👍🙏🥵

[@joemccarthy7120]

Mr. Rosenbefg seems to be making an odd criticism of Powell. It seems to me that if he is criticizing Powell for not taking as long as Volker did to tame inflation, that is an odd criticism. If that is true, then surely Powell deserves credit for being more pro-active. Arguably, the more irresponsible approach is to take 7 or 10 years to reign in inflation. It is also hard to see how Powell has been tough at all when real interest rates are still around zero.

[@SteveAaroe]

"The recession has already started, but we didnt know it." The only way you didnt know is because you got a solid regular salaried paycheck coming in and you been watching to much Netflix. Im an independent contractor with regular pay dropping each week since last year. My business has dropped off to a trickle like a leaky faucet. We are deep in it already. We are headed for a wipe out similar to or greater than 2008-2010. I got bankrupted in that one too. Businesses, houses, building developments, cars, boats, RVs, retirement accounts....you name it, were getting ready to loose it all. Facts.

[@juulsvern9961]

Nice. A little breakfast with Dave.

[@vm-bz1cd]

Rosie is extremely articulate and a perfect guest at this "Bear Den and Echo chamber"! Unfortunately Equity markets operate to a different Rhythm and are going to (continue to) slaughter the Perma Bears.... like the last 9 months for instance...

[@michaeldonnellan8630]

And the truth shall set you free, after the crash, excellent briefing .

[@tktimber418]

“Hard landing”? “soft landing”? This is going to be a “slow motion train wreck.”

[@4000angels]

This was another awesome interview. As I've come to expect from Welthion. Thank you to everyone involved. Please keep it up.

[@ciarancoyne9104]

Thanks a mill boys 🙏🏻

[@jackiechai9615]

Thank u thank u thank u 🙏

[@kitnanaai]

At some point fundamentals will catch up to the irrational exuberance the market is seeing. My biggest fear is that the bulls will get downside protection in the form of a bailout.

[@ivancho5854]

The crash will be too big and fast to intervene. Besides if the US Government starts buying equities, then just buy gold. Physical gold.

[@viahttp]

In the beginning of the Video at the climax. Guest has said quote "i think reccession has already started and we dont know". If i rephrase this and say, We dont know and reccession has already started. My question is We dont even know means you dont know simple. Amd recession has started. Thats like Guess, well guess or prediction. When its comes to prediction in finance,i dont know wanna know those stuff. Atleast numbers taughy me this.

[@ChatGPT-xm7xs]

Rents keep skyrocketing and service costs are doubling every 6 months. David must be on a different plant. Have him back on in 6 months when rates are at 8% and his soft landing is still just around the bend.