"Defeat Putin for the sake of Ukraine, Europe, and Russia itself" - Daniel Fried

Interview with Daniel Fried, American diplomat, sanctions coordinator for the US State Department. Fried has been pushing for NATO expansion and economic sanctions for years. How did similar sanctions ruin the Soviet Union? Was Russia offered to join NATO? What was the idea of ​​expanding NATO? For Russian voiceover, please follow • "Мы не настолько хорош...
00:00 Daniel Fried, Mr. Sanctions, American diplomat, former US State Department sanctions coordinator, on the approach to sanctions against Russia, which could stop the war in Ukraine. The G7 have announced that they are ready to stop profiting from oil. Turkey, China and India will become the importing countries of Russian oil, it is necessary to impose a restriction on oil prices. Use of Russian foreign exchange reserves for Ukrainian reconstruction. The effect will be strong, but delayed in time and will not be decisive in the militaristic phase of Putin's war against Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the volume of arms supplies to Ukraine.
07:30 The Russian people are mostly dumb. There are smart, capable people, but in Putin's system, their intelligence and abilities do not matter.
08:00 The United States did not allow Ukraine to join NATO. President Bush wanted to prepare Georgia and Ukraine for membership. Germany, France and other countries blocked it. Putin invaded Georgia and Ukraine in the same year, I don't regret that we tried. We must defeat Putin for the sake of Ukraine. For the sake of Europe. And, frankly, in the name of Russia itself.
12:30 I do not expect Russia to lose this war. The wars lost by Russia led to reforms. Let us recall the reforms after the Crimean War, the uprising of 1905, the fall of the old regime in 1917.
15:50 The concept of NATO expansion. The idea was that we need to build a united and free Europe, without erecting an eternal Iron Curtain. A Russia-NATO partnership that could develop into a real alliance. Russia would be a partner and even an ally.
17:00 There was no transformation in Russia, the fall of the USSR was too traumatic. Russia is neither reformed nor satisfied with its own condition. Putin has publicly acknowledged his desire to make Russia an empire. If NATO does not expand, Putin would definitely try to take back the Baltic states.
24:30 Putin toyed with the idea of ​​Russia joining NATO. Sergei Ivanov: "We do not want to be members of NATO, where we will have the same right to head as Latvia" Relations have deteriorated not because of NATO expansion.
26:46 We were not responsible for the color revolutions. We did not organize any uprisings. But Putin believed that it was all our doing. We are not that good. Putin never realized that in today's world, societies can actually agree on their own future.
33:00 Putin is not interested in building relationships. Clinton, Bush, Obama tried to get through to Putin. All three failed. Because Putin's conditions for good relations are complete freedom of action in carrying out repressions inside the country and aggressive actions outside it. Georgia. Ukraine.
40:16The Minsk Accords are not so bad. Donbass is Ukrainian territory, ceasefire, special status of the Russian language. If Putin needed a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, he would have agreed to comply with the Minsk agreements.
44:19 Brazil, India, Latin American countries, Asian countries sympathise with Putin. The popularity of Putin's way of doing business could be a problem for the whole world. In the US, there is an authoritarian movement around Donald Trump. Dictators have an undeniable advantage: they can say and do whatever they want. And democracies take time to organize themselves. But democracies are more resilient than their opponents believe.
53:00 There are many people in the West who are convinced that Russia is doomed to slide into its worst historical traditions. Russia has always had tsars, without the rule of law, without a democratic society. But there is a persistent minority in Russian history. Vladimir Kara-Murza or Vladimir Milov, Alexei Navalny. Most likely, after Putin it will be better. If Russia does not conquer Ukraine, and if it fails to keep Belarus, the new leadership may want to revive Russia. Putin must lose. The collapse of Russia: there is such a theory that the Tatars, cities on the Don or Chechnya may try to declare their independence. I am a skeptic about this. A Russian leader may emerge who will succeed in laying the foundation for the modernization of the country. Only under the condition that Putinism will collapse in real time, in front of the people.
64:57 Putin speaks the language of a triumphant. The Russian people will make any sacrifice if they think that their homeland is in danger. If they do not win, and the reasons for fighting are vague for them, they will not accept such a war just for the sake of aggression. If Putin loses, his support will instantly disappear.

[@TinaKGreene]

This is very insightful and deserves way more views!

[@sophiedaoust9864]

Great interview and very insightful ! Thank you ❤

[@jerzybecik1120]

The interview is great, but I cannot understand why they chose the place.Several times the conversation was interrupted and the quality of the sound worsened.

[@wernertognetti5956]

Thanks for the good questions and excellent interview partner.

[@danpawl2433]

Very insightful interview!

[@larass-architekten5852]

Very good insights... thank you

[@ebi3168]

It is potentially such an important interview, but I confess that I had to interrupt following it because of the background noises.

[@MKokalari]

Mikhail I just read your book , "All the Kremlin's men" and I must say it is brilliant!

[@alexandergarin8685]

It is an intellectual pleasure to listen to the interview. Hopefully it could be aired also in Russian. Sergei Ivanov's telling remark about a status, acceptable for Russia in NATO - not like "some little Latvia", shows an archaic mentality of an "honor society", - respect for a sheer might of Putin's surrounding (mafia-like). - “Who needs to listen to Poland, what they want; why not to share the world between the really powerful?” People’s movement is not perceived as a positive factor for such darwinian "conservatism". Could Clinton in a democracy ignore the Polish people’s wishes (also of the Poles in USA) for NATO? Kissinger's school of “realism” sometimes puts too much stress on a wise cabinet policy of the leaders and ignores an impact of "street". For traditional Russian politicians it is the leaders, who move the chess pieces, not the peoples, - they are not accustomed to that in their country. "A street" is explained away with conspiracies. Ukraine's victory hopefully will teach the Russian state a modern humility (of equality of dignity, not of might) for its new development (hopefully not based on oil).

[@MrOdrzut]

Russians aren't even half of the Eastern Europe population-wise. Why should they decide what everybody else can and cannot do? Russia is always the source of problems for everybody in Eastern Europe - it's high time they pay the price of the problems they caused instead of making everybody else deal with their shit forever.

[@fabiocossa2420]

I'd like to listen attentively to every single word ... sadly, very sadly there's a buzzing noise in the backgorund that doesn't let me understand clearly as I am not native speaking, therefore I 'd be terrific grateful if you can clean off that disturbance

[@Kenaiwolf]

Excellent interview. Thank you, Misha.

[@sergiyg7563]

Great interview! Thank you

[@peterlehocky88]

very good

[@OryssiaProkopovych]

Russia should be disintegrated. Such a large country is difficult to manage without imperialistic intentions.

[@liliatursunova4950]

It's a bullshit. Look at Canada or Brazil

[@Salenceable]

Wow.

[@maximilianhein1606]

Most interesting

[@polomis27]

Brilliant interview.

[@linefelten3421]

Il y a pas que l’Ukraine la guerre aussi d’autres pays monde la guerre ⚠️

[@vlpiananibumbum7220]

It's a pity Mikhail did not ask him about the perspective of lifting the sanctions. For many people, it seems now that the sanctions would not be lifted even if a coup or revolution against Putin succeeds and the war stops. So, overthrowing Putin does not bring any benefits to the country, other than moral. The new leader will be blamed by the population for collapsing the imaginary Empire and poverty.

[@hmmcinerney]

I think sanctions would be lifted when Putin is gone and not before. Too late for many industries though. It’s in no one’s interest to have a broken Russia after Putin. Depending entirely on who follows him of course.

[@vlpiananibumbum7220]

@@hmmcinerney There were many reports that Russian elites think otherwise. The aim of sanctions is to destroy the ability of Russia to feed the military complex. This aim will not change after some coup when Putin loses his throne. Putin suggests some hope for victory and the chance to negotiate better terms of lifting the sanctions after Russia has Ukrainian territory under control as hostages (wicked idea, but nevertheless). The successor who decides to end the war would face the inevitable economic collapse, the reputation of a western puppet and a failure (similar to the reputation of Gorbachev inside Russia)

[@NorthonBruce]

@@hmmcinerney The expert says that they can't "afford" a Russian shpere of influence in principle. Any Russia's: democratic or nor, that must be. So, if the ultimate task is not stopping violence, but "containing" Russians from obtaining influence in Europe, then the sanctions won't be lifted until Russia is neutralized, and if Russia will be "neutralized", a ressentiment and a national trauma will bring another Putin in power.

[@micumatrix]

? You seem to forget what started first. It was Moscows war since 2014 and not the sanctions. So stop the war ! The sanctions cost the EU a lot and will stop when Russia gets out of Ukraine, starts reparations and the criminals that kill and torture are prosecuted.

[@joshuapaul2022]

I thought Russia was running out of weapons, ammo, hardware, etc. I thought Putin was dying, like of a different disease each two weeks. I thought Ukraine was winning EASY thanks to the heroism of The Ghost of Kiev and Ben Stiller. Who could imagine that “evacuation” actually means surrender, “strategic withdrawal” means running for the hills dropping weapons, leaving wounded and equipment after total rout? How are they going to call Ukraine’s unconditional surrender? May be strategic evacuation across the polish border.

[@hmmcinerney]

Dream on mate.

[@wernertognetti5956]

The troll-factory is still on duty... The only thing russia is a winning champion.

[@ma7rix13]

Copy / paste troll in the house

[@MrOdrzut]

Russia is "winning" even more than in Afghanistan :)

[@TheMarlinspike]

This was great, shame about the audio.

[@TheMarlinspike]

awesome stuff