DNA Painter Tool What Are the Odds (WATO) - Genealogy Tutorial

[@ThonColinFilms]

This hurts my brain but I need to understand it!! Thanks for making the video. I’ll watch it again!

[@GeneaVlogger]

Good luck! This is getting into the really advanced tools of the trade, so it can sometimes take a couple of tries to fully understand.

[@ThonColinFilms]

GeneaVlogger I have a good tree and a lot of cM matches all from the same family. The biggest match is 693, a lady who is 90. All the rest are her children and grandchildren. Hoping I can find out a bit more by filling this all in!

[@niamh-learns]

Hey again! I finally have my WATO video up! It's the latest family mystery video. If you have the time, please let me know what you think! Also, it's super long, so feel free to watch on double speed, lol...

[@wp9860]

A good video on the operation of the tool. What has me stumbling is the rationale in setting up the example. I'm trying to construct or reconstruct the problem that WATO solves. What I understand from the video is that a family tree can be compiled of descendants of a given couple. (Can it be a single individual, as well?) Exact lines of decent are known from this couple to a group of individuals who have DNA matches with another person. Call this other person the "subject" of the study. The "subject" is also known to descend from the original couple. But, the subject's exact line of descent is unknown. Given satisfaction of the preceding conditions, the WATO tool can be used to determine (by likelihood) the subject's exact line of descent from the couple at the top of the tree. (Certain scenarios are not covered, like endogamy.) I think I have captured the premise and the objective. What I'm not understanding is why this problem, as I have described it, is of general interest. I'm racking my brain to think of a time I met the conditions of the problem statement, where WATO would be of use. Background on how and why WATO problems arise would help the viewer of your video understand the usefulness of the tool. I was unable to glean a rationale with respect to choosing hypotheses. You didn't seem to use random guesses. But, why you chose the hypotheses you chose was not explained. The rule or rules of when to stop the search were not stated. Some hypothesis has a large relative likelihood vis-a-vis all other hypotheses. The thing is there are many more possible hypotheses than the ones you tried. How do you know none of those untried hypotheses will not be more likely than the "current best" (the hypothesis you concluded with)? In 18 minutes I feel I got a good handle of what WATO does and how the user interface works. That is indeed real progress. (assuming my description of it is correct) WATO is a very sophisticated tool. And, I expect it is quite useful. I just have the gaps I described in coming to an understanding of that. Perhaps, another video or two is needed. While WATO is complicated, I do think this video provides a very good start at explaining this tool to the uninitiated. ... Much thanks.

[@niamh-learns]

Excellent tutorial! Thank you! I did end up figuring out how to use the program on my own, and have been using it in my family's adoption case with success. That said, I did NOT know about the issue with matches sharing less than 50cM. There are a few matches on my WATO tree that are under that amount... hmm. I may have to rework things. That said, I'm hoping to work on a video using this tool to help with our adoption case and have it up by the end of the week. When I have that up, I will let you know so you can share your opinion on that!

[@lauriecorson1037]

Very helpful...I think I have one of those low cM outliers that skewed my results. Thanks for the great explanation.

[@GeneaVlogger]

Glad to help! Those low cM matches can really throw things out of balance, so hopefully excluding it gives you a better idea of the results.

[@mandifields2621]

Hey! I found your channel several weeks ago and I'm really enjoying it. I've did my DNA on ancestry.com and I have been working on my family tree. I was wondering if you would consider doing a video on explaining cousins. In example first cousin twice removed. Thanks I especially loved the episodes with the family you found from the photograph in New York. Great work! Thanks!

[@CRSDelta]

Thanks for the tutorial. I played around with WATO and will revisit my work to see if I did it correctly. However this brings up questions about Ancestry data. If they use this algorithm it sounds like we cannot use this tool with data from other DNA sites. I guess I need to read more about Timber because I have uploaded many dna kits to multiple sites and get different matches. It would be great to be able to analyze them together. Thanks

[@Mike_S_Swift]

Couldn’t Bessies grandchild have been a half relationship? That’s what I just discovered on my paternal grandfather isn’t by looking at cM from my dad’s siblings grandkids are only half the cM as from his moms side. I know the main common couple and was trying to fit them in my great grandmothers parents lineage but I wasn’t matching known people who should show up on my dad’s side but weren’t. That’s when the light came on and discovered who I thought was my grandfather isn’t. I have some suspicions as to who may be but will try and work it out with this tool using half relationships. I do have a lot of matches. The highest doesn’t have a tree but others do. Thanks for posting this video. Some folks go too fast to see how you are building out the tree. You are going just about right for me lol.

[@comradepinky2623]

I have a match on Ancestry DNA who comes up as a 2nd/3rd cousin. Sadly this lady is now passed but her centimorgan information is still available. I suspect that one of her Dad's brothers may be my biological grandfather. Will this system work and how do I place myself in the family tree?

[@GeneaVlogger]

If you have other matches who are from that same family then this tool should help you get an idea of the most probable way you fit into that family tree. Basically you build out their family tree with the known matches and then whereever you place a hypothesis, that is hypothesizing how likely it is that you are in that spot within their family tree.

[@torchape]

I may have to try this. I match an adoptee with a shared 327 cM, and my dad matches her with 361 cMs. Other matches with the adoptee: My sister, 232 cM; my first cousin, 161 cMs. She is 9 years older than I am, so I believe her to be in my generation. Since I inherited most of my dad's matching DNA with her, I will use my dad's match as the focus. In order for her to be that close with him, I am guessing she must be the child of my dad's first cousin, a first cousin once removed. Through matches I've determined the adoptee is related to my dad on his father's side (my dad's mother has French-Canadian endogamy). My paternal grandfather had two sisters, both given up for adoption either at birth or when their mother passed. The oldest girl, Marion, was older than my grandfather. On the birth record page from that town, Marion is listed near the top of the page. Near the bottom is another Marion born 5 days later, the mother being my grandfather's next younger sister. My contention is that my grandfather and his wife had Marion four months after their marriage, and gave her to his sister because they were not able to afford her or because of societal stigmas. The second Marion had one son who had 3 daughters, all younger than the adoptee. The adoptee was conceived about 6 months after Marion's son was discharged from the Navy. The adoptee was born in 1948. I know this is long and drawn out, but would this WATO tool be a good one to use to try out different scenarios? I don't want to approach my dad's cousin's 3 daughters for a DNA test before working other scenarios. Thank you for your time, if you choose to read this.

[@GeneaVlogger]

WATO may be helpful in this case but I'm a bit confused in reading the second part, could you clarify the story? It seems that you are saying your grandfather's older sister was born 5 days before his younger sister's daughter, so I am guessing something is either missing/mistyped.

[@torchape]

@@GeneaVlogger thank you for responding. According to the work I've done, my great-grandparents had 2 daughters and one son. There is no record of the 2 daughters beyond a record of their birth. The first daughter, Marion, was born 25 Jul 1900, four and a half months after my great-grandparents were married, almost 2 months after the 1900 US census was enumerated. Marion is registered in the Birth Registry for Lynn, MA. That is the only record I have. Down near the bottom of the same page on that registry is another Marion, born 30 Jul 1900. Her mother is listed as Fannie whose maiden name is the same last name as my GGF. She is my GGF's next younger sister. I have many records showing that. Considering Fannie's other census records (1900 & 1910), her "married" life is not normal. She and her two daughters-Marion being her youngest-lived in separate homes than her "husband." So I believe my great-grandparents gave their daughter Marion (25 Jul 1900) to his sister, Fannie, to raise. It is probable that the adoptee, b. 1948, is the daughter of my dad's first cousin. I am focusing on the only child of Fannie's Marion as the father only because I know about him. A DNA test from one of his daughters would tell me if my theory is correct. The only other possibility is that the adoptee is the granddaughter of my great-grandparents' second daughter Madeline, b. 8 Feb 1904, who was likely given up for adoption when my GGM passed away 24 May 1905. Any other scenario would not be possible in my opinion. I have a DNA match with Fannie's granddaughter through Fannie's older daughter. Our shared cMs are within the range it should be. Sorry for being so long on this. It can get complicated very quickly. Thank you for your attention and thank you much for your channel!! I get much good information from you!!

[@GeneaVlogger]

The clarification definitely helps! Genealogy is always complicated ;-) Based on what you are telling me I believe WATO will help you determine the place of this adoptee in the family. By placing the hypotheses as descendants of Fannie or descendants of another child (supposedly Madeline) you will be able to determine who the adoptee most likely descends from. If you can get a descendant of Madeline to test, assuming there are other descendants to find, that will help really confirm the most likely answer.

[@susanclay6959]

What does it measure the hypothesis against? I have a tester that is my 3rd-4th cousin. I built the tree. and it comes up with a score of 0 every time? Is there something else I should be putting in. The person in question has gotten a grandfather match and it is where I believe it should be based on age, location and placement in the family. How do you imput the testers cM data in to run the hypothesis against? I don't get it.

[@GeneaVlogger]

To best figure things out I would suggest joining the facebook group for WATO, where you can post a link to the WATO tree you created and get help directly from many other users. Sometimes Jonny Perl (DNA painter) or Leah Larkin (WATO creator) will even pipe up. facebook.com/groups/WhatAretheOdds/

[@AncestryNerd]

What's your experience using WATO for Jewish and endogamous populations? I know it's not recommended, but I'm curious if you have tried it and if you achieve any success.

[@GeneaVlogger]

WATO can still work for endogamous populations (not including the extremely endogamous island populations) but it is far more limited. WATO usually aims for people to include matches 50cM and up, but I have found for endogamous populations it has a higher limit around 100cM. So if you are dealing with mostly matches who are 100cM, the confidence in WATO's answers is much less.

[@garybeard2109]

I'm kinda confused by what you're referring to as a new tester. Is this someone who just took their DNA test and are seeing matches for the first time and trying to figure out where they fit compared to all these new relationships he/she's just discovered? Or, are you referring to a new match that pops up for someone who already has a large tree and is trying to figure out where they fit in their tree? Or, something else entirely that I'm not thinking of??? I'm also confused, probably in a related sense, about what this chart is actually telling us, hypothetically, since we're not inputting anywhere what this "new testers" match, in centimorgans, is.

[@GeneaVlogger]

WATO is used when someone who has done a DNA test (who I refer to as the tester) has multiple genetic matches who descend from the same family but it is unknown how the tester connects to the family tree of these genetic matches. The hypotheses placed are a 'hypothesized spot' within that family tree. So if I am the tester and I have a bunch of matches from a specific family, the hypotheses I place are my hypothesized spots in their family tree. It can be used the opposite way as well, where I find a new match who is matching DNA kits for lots of members of a specific part of my family but it is unknown how this new match connects to the family. What this chart is telling us is the most likely place where the DNA tester sits in the family tree. By knowing where in this family tree the tester is most likely placed it allows us to hone in on what to research and who to contact. As well, it lets us know further relatives we can pursue to get tested. As for your last question, I believe you're confused because we have already entered in the number of shared cM when we place the genetic matches in the tree.

[@garybeard2109]

@@GeneaVlogger Yeah...I think I'm understanding it better. I got one hypothesis that gave me a 300+million chance of being correct with the only other hypothesis at just 1. Is that bugged, or can I consider that as "probable"? When I added a few more hypothesis, the 300+million didn't change much but the second highest hypothesis was around 30,000.

[@GeneaVlogger]

The 300+million scored hypothesis is your most likely hypothesis based on known statistics of shared DNA. The other hypothesis is also possible but just not as likely. As long as the score isn't a 0 the hypothesis is possible but the larger the hypothesis the more likely. I would say focus your research energy on the 300+million hypothesis but keep an open mind that it may be another spot if the paper-trail doesn't seem to match up.

[@ThonColinFilms]

I've had a go and the highest hyposthesis I can get on the tree is 42. Does this mean that the tree is way off/not that related to me?

[@GeneaVlogger]

No, the scores just indicate which hypothesis is more likely. As long as the hypothesis score is 1 then that spot is a possibility.

[@ThonColinFilms]

GeneaVlogger All the others on the tree were either 0 or 1. So the ones that were 42 were more likely based on the age of the person I reckon. All the siblings were also 42.

[@amberhodges8631]

I’m so confused . I did two variations. one for my grandma and one for my great aunt . My great grandmother never knew her father . Her father could be one of 5 brothers . I added three cousins in and added half siblings . My grandma got a higher score with one and my great aunt another .

[@GeneaVlogger]

I would suggest joining the WATO facebook group where you can share the link to the WATO trees you build to get help from other users. facebook.com/groups/WhatAretheOdds/

[@phyllisporter8393]

Folks - please learn that / is a slash - not a back slash.

[@GeneaVlogger]

I misspoke in the video but / is a forward slash whereas - is a dash or hyphen. A back slash is \