DON'T TRADE FADE (EP 7): WHY FADING THE EXPERTS IS A REAL WINNING TRADING STRATEGY!

[@jtrealfunny]

One nice aspect of the SP 500 index is that it is a managed index, growing companies move in and fading companies move out. It makes a great vehicle for passive investors.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

well said.

[@coelecanth13]

WE LOVE JASON SHAPIRO

[@memet1-3-5]

mr jason shapiro making his complex wisdom accessible with clarity - again

[@SebaTarth]

You gotta like making money more than being clever. A lot of these experts have this contrarian streak and will argue their position even if it's clearly wrong. The really great money managers, like Jason, stay open-minded and informed.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

@@SebaTarth be wrong make money lol

[@adriannegrean1252]

Really eye opening! Thank you for your insight!

[@elgerardoedwardio2498]

This is sone interesting stuff, thanks gor posting 🥰

[@akuji2]

Thank you man

[@eelarrai]

Impressive, thank you Jason. Good stuff.

[@timedowntube]

Thanks again Jason. This is a solid confirmation of the midwit hypothesis. The best irony at the moment is that top meme coins are killing everything.They are comnpletely stupid and that *is* the point. Social and psychological are the fundamentals. Fading *smart* to be smart is a beautiful thing.

[@alexm06]

Great point Jason! Thanks! Can I ask how much your return has been this year with COT?

[@aaronformella2869]

This is awesome. Thank you

[@Yetified_Mayhem]

One of the best traders I've met, literally used to be a street gangster. His instincts blow loads on a whole GS team...

[@rockyfree]

RIP Phil❤ and long live Jason

[@paulvarey2416]

This content is excellent.

[@Jay-jd1bi]

you should see how good his webpage stuff is.

[@enudretheinsult]

Devastating facts!

[@Kakaidol]

Love your videos. Suggestion- compare sell side analyst reports with actual price performance. And how they keep putting a buy all the way down. That would be an eye opener for newbies.

[@bibbidi_bobbidi_bacons]

Great job, Jason

[@LA_batboy]

Thanks, bud... I'll join CMR when the crypto bull market is over sometime in 25'. Don't forget to give your take to us leeches on BTC or even better the crypto market in general; like a 5 min segment 😅

[@PEOdysseus]

can you show how you have done this year with the fading?

[@yiguangshi8722]

One theory I heard is there are so many people putting their 401K and other investments into index funds. This means those funds will be buying stocks in the S&P 500 regardless of the fundamentals. A hot company could miss miserably, but the stock will keep going up outside of a few down days when the few fundamentalists cash out. In the past, people put their 401K and investments into managed funds so fundamentals mattered. Companies that miss will see fund managers avoid their stock. Today, fundamentals don't mean much. It only matters if there is liquidity going into the market.

[@Cr-21163]

Natural gas starting to look interesting. Now there's an asset I haven't heard about it a long time. Last time I remember hearing about it was in January 2023 when everyone was saying to "buy the dip." Maybe that idea has capitulated

[@toneloc-cz2xi]

New Beanie! Jason must be doin alright !

[@GM4ThePeople]

Good! Wonder whether there's any info in timescale, e.g. maybe the Barron's (consensus) call outperforms for the first month or quarter, & then turtles.

[@bobbyfischer8724]

Problem with this approach is, what happens in a year where the S&P is down 10 % ? Assuming Barron's picked lower beta stocks than Mag 7, Barron's would have been only down 5%, so outperforming the S&P. Maybe you should show the beta of the competing portfolios ?

[@cryptoricardo]

To borrow the crypto bros terminology: this is pure alpha

[@CjackJamie]

It's also interesting that the charts look very similar just worse returns. Does this mean stocks overall move together somehow?

[@abhiJI3045]

i am just worried, if fading the experts becomes more popular, not fading the experts will become the contrarian move

[@GreenFuryGaming]

Feel.the same

[@erwinslave]

Wrong. Human psychology won't allow your theory to develop.

[@PerspectiveSal]

The language we use determines our perception and action No one dare to fade the so called "EXPERTS" because they are experts right?? Only a handful of people who objectively backtest this data will which weeds out 80% of the people.

[@GreenFuryGaming]

@@erwinslave I really hope you are correct

[@wyattgormley3129]

Have heard ‘passive’ investing is 45% of the market… just buy the index, it will work until it doesn’t, and that ‘doesn’t’ will be a shift in boomer investment trends either brought on by change in government policy, death, or huge reversal costing decades, not new contrarian sentiment. But am new here and think the practical take away from Jason is ‘why’ is maybe the wrong question, just need to open my eyes and watch what works.

[@carnivoretrades]

To be fair the S&P has also outperformed its own yearly average by something like 10-12% and I'm sure those managers also own it in some type of core position in addition to their picks but yeah, point still stands. Most guys on TV are just talking up their book or following the herd into whatever the hot crowded trade is that everyone else is already in.

[@BaydreamR]

What does FADE mean exactly? I've been reading a bit and index trading or investing(dow theory) seems logical. Still attention intensive. Personally considering dca indexes like S&P but also save cash to double down in down in poor years seems like a way to outdo a constant dca strategy. Prob not enough excitement for most. I am finding individual stocks something i don't have time for.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

Fade = do the opposite of.

[@AlphaMale-ch1wz]

Hey Jason , I have Been Watching Metals for a While . And wanna know your thoughts on it . Platinum in Overcrowded Right Now . Specs are Extreme Longs & Comm. Net Short that they havent been in Years in this Qty. + Platinum Seasonal Tendency showing Declining Prices in 20 Oct - 15 Nov. [ same Time as Now ] & Today we also Saw Big Rejection Candle / Pinbar & Correlation Failure as DXY has Bullish Claims / PMI and Still Closed Downward & XPTUSD also showed same Correlation Failure . Lastly , Open Intrest is also Preety High which Indicates Pottential Reversal in an Asset . So , It is Looking like a Ideal SHORT to me With Decent Sized StopLoss. My Question is Am i Miasing Something in this Though process . And how would you Think about it ?? Thanks for Great Work in Geaneral ❤🙏

[@overasiainadrone6017]

Good observations. Have you been doing the same in past years? I bet the same happened in the past.

[@crowdedmarketreport]

I have fades I track, but first time tracking like this. Year 1 of many hopefully

[@GEONATO_]

i would be staring at that window the whole vid... Divine.

[@PonziZombieKiller]

Gotta lose to be first in line for Stimulus. 👍🤘

[@TopTrade1]

I was trading so bad last week, I wanted to fade myself lol

[@crowdedmarketreport]

Not alone.

[@austinconnor1]

Jason are you a dolphins fan? sneaky hat....

[@crowdedmarketreport]

Yes. Today was tough

[@The_Abbot]

Cigs posted up 10 toes down in the back

[@TLATRADER]

Jim Cramer is an excellent example. Not Mad Money but stupid money. buy buy buy 🤥

[@npcriot9954]

There are plenty of overvalued and undervalued companies out there, but it's obvious that that's irrelevant. The network effect can keep pushing the S&P500 regardless of valuations. I can say this in many different ways. Do you remember, 'Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM'? Just put S&P500 in there.

[@chewie1355]

I just canceled by Barrons subscription

[@jasonrgann]

🐐🐐🐐❤️❤️❤️✝️✝️✝️

[@mkayultra999]

is everyone here doing leveraged/options trading? is spot trading not recommended for US equities? Say your principal is

[@akshatrastogi9063]

I like how he says ChatGPT as ChatGTP. No respect for the poor AI.. 😅

[@shabpnd481]

lol if u fade risk reversal media starring that clown Dan Nathan you would have made at least 500% in 2 years.

[@MK-qj5wr]

Jason, I am in general, a fan of what you do. But honestly, this wasn’t one of your better pieces. Comparing various sources with the benefit of hindsight to the S&P 500 over about less than a year in a year when the S&P has done really well isn’t that useful. Short term performance is noise.

[@Jay-jd1bi]

just following up on an idea he had at start of year. will continue over time as he said in the video. did you watch the entire video? he mentioned the hindsight thing in there.

[@teslamr7333]

Did anyone else notice the stealth 🐬?

[@MK-qj5wr]

Show academic studies then that’s more meaningful than this

[@mikesymth7243]

The S&P500 is a weighted average and the Barron's picks you made is an unweight average. So you comparison is erroneous. You have to compare to an unweighted average

[@Jay-jd1bi]

hes just comparing simple return streams. and they are both easily investable. KISS

[@mikesymth7243]

@@Jay-jd1bi Nope. The SPY has the AI stocks heavily weighted. If you take them out or weight everything equally then there is no advantage to the SPY. It's not KISS. It's false comparisons.

[@Jay-jd1bi]

@@mikesymth7243 now that seems like aq retrospect analysis if anything

[@Jay-jd1bi]

@@mikesymth7243 equal weighted s and p up 13% ytd. still beats crap out of barrons experts it seems. and the cnbc folks. so the best thing is chat gpt followed by alphabetical!

[@kendoman3150]

Wrong. Barron’s said buy their selected stocks to beat the market. They didn’t so far.

[@1UchihaItachi]

Love and respect from Iraq; I learn a lot from you and your view on the markets so keep up the good work Salam 🤍💯✌