Gen Z’s Historic Gender Gap | 538 Politics Podcast

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FiveThirtyEight

Күн бұрын

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@EatDemWaffles Ай бұрын

Bring back videos

@tomisgood Ай бұрын

I'd like to challenge the notion that you become "more conservative as you get older" I think that it was actually "you become more conservative as you aquire more wealth" and this just so happened to coincide with growing older... until the millennial generation. Which has acquired very little wealth and so, as a result, has not become much more conservative.

@Newton-Reuther Ай бұрын

I became more conservative as I got younger

@damianm-nordhorn116 15 күн бұрын

I doubt that, as a lot of conservative people are not wealthy at all. It's rather that it's not us moving to towards conservatism with age but the world moving on, leaving those that don't move/progress with it in a backward place.

@hypnokitten6450 Ай бұрын

As far as 'see people as people', I don't think that crosses over with 'date across the political divide' or GenZ having a problem if they don't. Political divide isn't old-school economic and philosophical debates. The republican party has defined its voters and demands its voters now support some very personal-moralities. Finding out their party now means "My potential partner is willing to support the loss of my right to medical care, the arrest of my friend for being different, genocide, mass-extinction through climate change, and turning my country into a dictatorial theocracy." That is an intentional choice this potential partner is making. You can make it because 'I care about this personal tax-break that I get along with it' (3 pieces of silver) or some other excuse. But however you rationalized it, whatever you got out of it, you were willing to make that choice and sacrifice everyone around you for that excuse. And for most people (not just Gen-Z, I'm Gen-X and speak with a lot of my generation), for a person to make that kind of choice... well, it takes a certain kind of person. And ain't none of us so hard up for choices and potential partners that we have to be with that kind of person. Not saying the other side is perfect, they have their own issues by a mile. And totally have to sort through a bunch of Those too. But I'll happily eliminate the high-order variable of the equation if someone is willing to happily wear that red-hat warning-flag so I don't have to drag out of them who they are on the inside.

@Sitbear Ай бұрын

I love how everybody has a vague preference to “turn down the temperature” when one side keeps trying to do a coup and put minorities in camps and the other side is pointing out the danger in allowing those guys to win.

@synchronium24 Ай бұрын

You can certainly call out MAGA double standards about violence. I think the main reason to turn down the temperature is much more pragmatic than principled: right wingers have most of the guns and itchy trigger fingers.

@Newton-Reuther Ай бұрын

@@synchronium24You go far enough left, and everybody has guns again. Just a thought

@RichardKing-sx6xc Ай бұрын

Cringe Leftiod Blue Anon. 😂😅😆🤣

@qxrbil Ай бұрын

There is a distinction between people who think violence is acceptable in politics and those who are willing to engage in violence for a political reason. Without more finely-tuned questions, assuming "2% of people are ok with violence, therefore 2% are willing to commit violence" is an claim unsupported by the data.

@SYLXM Ай бұрын

This is absolutely true. I think most people would say the enslaved people in early America were fully justified to engage in political violence, but that doesn't mean people are going to currently call for or engage in political violence.

@specialnewb9821 Ай бұрын

Right. If you have a family you might think twice about actions even if you agree for example

@synchronium24 Ай бұрын

I'd guess 20-30% (mostly right wing) think political violence (beyond edge cases) is acceptable and 2% are willing to act on it. 2% of 300+ million is still over 6 million.

@AnneOnaMoose Ай бұрын

High school teacher here. My Attenborough-esque observation of Gen Z in the wild is that the girls are generally more drawn to pro-LGBTQ attitudes than the boys (a liberal attitude), and they are turned off by the machismo bro culture common in male-only groups (a conservative attitude). The "male gaze" of boys judging their attractiveness on social media, and the trend toward casual "situationships" that don't require male commitment, has also contributed to mistrust among the girls toward the broeyest boys. It seems like liberal boys (gay and straight) are admitted to the girls' circle of trust, and liberal values predominate there. The conservative masculine boy groups are kept at a distance. Just my two cents.

@MoonayMultipliar Ай бұрын

I dunno about that, i would say its more complicated. Every boys group ever tended to be more masculine or nerdy. And i dont see the masculine boys being held at a distance. Atleast not after puberty

@a.k8069 Ай бұрын

23:44 When Gen Z gender gap talk starts

@jennifers7412 Ай бұрын

Young men don’t seriously think about if they want children or not. Women are expected to decide if they want children or not before they start looking to date seriously. You can’t make an ethical decision about that question without learning about what the world is going to look like for that child. What we do and don’t do about Climate change is the black hole of what that child’s future is going to look like.

@Blackifunny Ай бұрын

I have thought about and I decided hell no.

@bryanbazilauskas8673 Ай бұрын

I’m convinced that anyone “undecided” at this point is voting for Trump.

@daraorourke5798 Ай бұрын

Like the famous ' shy Tories ' in Britain

@guybrushthreepwood362 Ай бұрын

or just are not going to vote

@Stephensofceea Ай бұрын

They are just Trump voters who are waiting for a non-racist, non-stupid sounding reason to emerge so that they can tell everyone that's why they are voting for Trump.

@Newton-Reuther Ай бұрын

@@guybrushthreepwood362But then you would decide not to vote, and you would no longer be an undecided voter.

@Blackifunny Ай бұрын

Good

@petervannostrand Ай бұрын

One thought on the gender gap in climate change perceptions might be the way in which advertising is gendered. Advertising targeted at emerging adult men tends to be on things like pickup trucks, fast cars, ATVs, burgers, charcoal grilling etc. And even for older men it's stuff like golf, owning a boat, flying to a tropical island vacation with hot beach girls, etc. All of those activities are obviously much easier to engage without feeling guilty if you believe that climate change is not human caused. So I wonder if that gendered difference in advertising messaging and the associated gendered difference in hobbies has made men more resistant than women to accepting the scientific consensus around climate change. Especially since stereotypical advertising targeting women (makeup/beauty products, home goods, etc) is largely devoid of obvious strong incentives to deny the human role in climate change

@ElementalNimbus Ай бұрын

I'm also confused if this was filmed maybe a couple days before it went up. The model now shows a decent post-debate bump, it is even acknowledged in text on that page. To quote: "The first batch of post-debate polls among the broader public confirm this trend, with our forecast margin in the national popular vote moving 0.8 percentage points in her direction by 5:00 pm Eastern on Friday, Sept 13.". In specific Galen says Pennsylvania's poll went from .6 lead to .5 lead as of recording the podcast. However the polling on 538's site is showing D+1.9 unadjusted, and adjusted it is at D+2.6. It shows the final 538 forecast it us using is D+2.2. I'm not sure if you are using some polls in specific, or just recorded this early before the shift got baked in completely. Weird to hear you talking about it like this though.

@The.Elk.of.Antioch Ай бұрын

How do pollsters take account of the, “ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer” aspect of polling. I don’t think you will receive an accurate answer to a sensitive question like is assault with a deadly weapon acceptable in politics. I imagine some honestly answer yes, but I suspect most people who answer yes think the question is unreasonable so they give an edgy humor answer. I also think some will imagine a completely blue sky scenario that is not what the pollsters contemplated with the question. For instance, if Russia invaded Florida via Cuba and installed a puppet president would you be justified in joining a guerrilla movement, not during a normal election is it justified to shoot someone. You are in the land of the American Revolution, many may be thinking "in the case of a tryanny or occupation we may need a rebellion."

@j.s.c.4355 Ай бұрын

I agree with your second statement. The scenarios people could make up in their head to justify a “yes” answer are widely varied. And I can totally see a subject wanting to know, “wait, are you asking me if I would pull the trigger, or…”

@daraorourke5798 Ай бұрын

Many Republican voters think them not winning = an occupation or invasion

@richmorin424 Ай бұрын

Please add a topical index, with time stamps.

@socialliz6805 Ай бұрын

Carol Gilligan famously theorized that women are socialized to see morality as being about caring, while men are socialized to see morality as being about justice. While she made strong claims about this gender difference that haven't been totally supported by data, a weak version of the theory seems to be true. Every issue mentioned as one in which women became more liberal is a "caring" issue, like caring for the environment or caring for kids in school.

@trackeduser2577 Ай бұрын

Somewhere else I ran into the idea that the 'tend more conservative as you age' is really a misconception. conservative positions shift over time. the best example i can give is I have talked to a literal rocket scientist who is a deep lover of star trek. his main complaint is that modern trek including to some degree next gen is too political. he grew up watching original trek.. the one that made comments on the Vietnam war twice, the episode 'last battlefield' and other, for the time, very left ideas. that's the key- the definition of conservative changes over time. I frame the original star trek political question this way... would Archie Bunker (early in the show) see Star trek as political? I also think we are seeing the results of 'liberals bad' propaganda. some men are not comfortable adapting liberal as a label even if you sat down and did a test you'd find he believes in 'from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs'

@noblejennette2101 Ай бұрын

Anyone who “needs to hear more about Kamala’s policies” is a wildly uninformed voter. Not only are her policies easy to find, but, Trump has no policies, just grievances and rage bait.

@trackeduser2577 Ай бұрын

they are turning that word salad on replacing Obamacare from the debate into a meme. that says it all. 'a concept of a plan' we were supposed to get a plan next week something like 6 years ago! this beats out the promise of the hearings being on CNN.

@DroidFreak36 Ай бұрын

I have a theory about the mechanism behind the gender gap in gun control and climate change - Guns and combustion engines are very appealing to men in our society, and are often seen as manly. So I think it's not so much that women are biased in favor of those reforms as it is that men are biased against them.

@merrymachiavelli2041 Ай бұрын

The same trend (women becoming significantly more progressive than men) is also taking place in other developed economies, where gun control is generally a non-issue and climate change is much less of a polarised topic.

@ain92ru Ай бұрын

Yeah, there's a certain gender socialization issue. E.g. with guns, a man not owning a gun might have gun-owning male friends and might perceive it as a norm of life while a woman is more likely to have no gun-owning female friends and connect it with toxic masculinity. Or a young man would remember how his grandpa hunted birds and appreciate that ("It was so cool!") while his sister might instead feel pity for the birds and find hunting them disgusting in retrospect

@carrite Ай бұрын

So Disney can't afford a video feed???

@NatisParker Ай бұрын

Now that Nate Silver is a competitor, ABC would rather sink their current team than double down, so they can rebrand next election cycle. My 2 pennies

@InciteFire Ай бұрын

bring back videos

@rogerelliss9829 Ай бұрын

I'm really sick of hearing "the rhetoric on both sides..."

@PremierCCGuyMMXVI Ай бұрын

Though I would say Bredesen in 2018 did extremely well, he only lost by 11% in a state that voted for Republicans for the House in Tennessee in that election by a margin of 20%. But probably had nothing to do with Swift. Her goal is probably to raise youth turnout rather than persuasion, which in my view is far more of a productive thing to do. Youth turnout was 40% in 2016, 50% in 2020, if it’s 60% in 2024, Harris will definitely win.

@cw6043 Ай бұрын

"see people as people" is something progressives do :p

@nerfherder6166 Ай бұрын

Why do you never discuss the model on this podcast? Elliott hasn't been on since June. Seems a little sketchy.

@LuisReyes-f1u Ай бұрын

*Going debt-free and growing my savings to $235,000 in under a month is a dream come true - thank you, Stacey Neal* *Brooks, for making it possible! I promise to be your biggest advocate sharing your remarkable insights with everyone I know*

@TaylorThomas-jf4py Ай бұрын

I remain eternally grateful to Stacey as well, for her efforts that got me to this point, finally paid off my mortgage and all debts, what more could l've asked for. She changed my life for good.

@RajibKander Ай бұрын

Wow, I've heard a lot of wonderful things about this Stacey Neal Brooks on the news but didn't believe it until now. I'm definitely trying her out this time

@youtubewatcher2 Ай бұрын

As authoritarianism is not necessarily conservative the contrast should be liberal/left vs. authoritarian . Trump's tariffs and foreign policy are decidedly not conservative in the conservative tradition of Reagan. Also the conclusions about the debate seem premature but we will know more by mid next-week. Might be hard to distinguish from Trump Vance going all in on racist narratives about immigrants.

@gljames24 Ай бұрын

Protectionism is inherently conservative. Regan policy was much more Right Libertarian.

@youtubewatcher2 Ай бұрын

@@gljames24 100 years ago sure. The blowing up of a recession through exploded stock market bubble into a decade long Depression was fueled by protectionism, esp Smoot Hawley.